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Linking Lake Variability, Climate, and Human Activity in Basotu, Tanzania

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Linking Lake Variability, Climate, and Human Activity in Basotu, Tanzania !"#$ #%&"" ' ' (#)& * ' ' * &+ * '* * &, - + .)&%$/'%0&"$/12' 3 ,4 '* * & -+ * 5 . ' ' 2 .#)6!#"2&,-+ * 1 &, * * 5 .#7$%8!"#025 5 - & * 5 * 9 : &, * ' ' & * ' -+ ; < * ' = &, 1 * * + ' 5 #)6 &> 5 4* ; #7" &, * + ' -+ * & * 4 * - 9 1 &, -+ * & !"#$ ?@@ && @ A B ?? ? ? #)0)#0 9+C7$D7#$)7D"" 9+C7$D7#$)7D#$ 9C#0%$!## ! "# $ ! '#"7# LINKING LAKE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE, AND HUMAN ACTIVITY IN BASOTU, TANZANIA Lindsey Higgins Linking lake variability, climate, and human activity in Basotu, Tanzania Lindsey Higgins ©Lindsey Higgins, Stockholm University 2017 ISBN print 978-91-7649-680-0 ISBN PDF 978-91-7649-681-7 ISSN 1653-7211 Paper I ©Lindsey Higgins Paper II ©Open Access. First published in Geosciences. Paper III ©Lindsey Higgins Cover Illustration by Lindsey Higgins Author Photo by Emanuel Ramsell Printed in Sweden by Universitetsservice US-AB, Stockholm 2017 Distributor: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University In memory of Lennon Bowie Zappa Erik Christoffer Wallgren (1990–2014) Abstract Paleoenvironmental investigations establish important baseline knowledge of the natural variability of lake systems, to better understand human impacts on the landscape, and the effects of climate change on water resources. By combin- ing long-term environmental history with investigations into modern land use patterns and climatological events, a wider perspective can be reached that has practical applications in water governance. This thesis presents a case study of Lake Basotu (4.37°S, 35.07°E), a crater lake in the Hanang district of north- central Tanzania, which acts as an important source of freshwater for local peo- ple. A three-meter long sediment core from an interior crater of Lake Basotu was investigated using proxy records (diatoms, magnetic parameters, and carbon content) and radiometric dating (14C and 210Pb). The Lake Basotu record was then compared to other sediment-based reconstructions from East Africa and records of historical famines to better place it into the timeline and understanding of regional climate dynamics. This work was extended into modern times (1973– 2015) by examining lake extent variations in the Landsat satellite archive. Shore- line boundaries for dry-season images were delineated and lake extent was cal- culated using GIS techniques. This remote sensing record was compared to cli- matological patterns, meteorological records, and the history of land-use changes in the surrounding district. As a whole, the Lake Basotu record indicates that major fluctuations in lake level are not abnormal; however, human influence has likely increased the lake’s sensitivity to climatic fluctuations. The timing of historical famines in East Africa were linked to periods of shallow lake condi- tions in Basotu, and the duration of the most extreme lake level changes correlate to a reversal in the 14C age-depth model. Recent variations in lake extent are likely connected to a mechanized wheat farming program implemented in the district as a foreign aid project in the early 1960s. To support the work done in Basotu, a preliminary investigation of sediment from the nearby Lake Babati was undertaken. Sediment from the two lakes indicates that their geographical location may be in a transition zone towards dryer conditions to the south during the Little Ice Age in East Africa. The results of this thesis support that Lake Basotu is an important location for understanding the potential impacts of cli- mate change and human activity on water resources in this region. Sammanfattning Denna avhandling presenterar en studie av Lake Basotu (4.37° S, 35.07° Ö), en kratersjö i Hanang-distriktet i norra Tanzania som är en viktig sötvattenskälla för lokalbefolkningen. Sedan 1960-talet har konflikter uppstått över tillgången till vatten och användningen av marken kring sjön. För att bäst skilja effekterna av mänsklig aktivitet på Basotu-sjön från naturlig variation, tillämpas i avhandlingen en tvärvetenskaplig metod. Genom att kombinera långsiktig miljöhistoria med studier av nutida markanvändningsmönster och klimatologiska händelser nås en bred förståelse av sjön som vattenresurs, av praktisk betydelse för vattenförvaltning (governance). Strategier för bevarande av vattenresurser är särskilt viktiga, eftersom nederbörden i Tanzania förväntas bli alltmer opålitlig på grund av prognosticerade klimatförändringar. Basotu-sjöns naturliga variabilitet bedömdes genom analys av sediment från sjöns inre krater. En sedimentkärna från Basotu-sjön analyserades med avseende på diatoméer. Olika diatoméarter har olika preferenser gällande salthalt. Detta innebär att sedimentkärnan kunde delas in i åtta zoner, som var och en beskrevs med avseende på den generella miljön, baserat på diatoméerna som miljöindikatorer. Analys av mineralmagnetiska egenskaper och kolinnehåll användes tillsammans med diatomédata för att ge ett bredare perspektiv på sjönivåförändringar. Samtliga data användes för att utveckla en kronologi baserad på klimatförändringar som registrerats i andra studier av sediment från Östafrika och på historiska uppgifter om perioder av hungersnöd som har påverkat regionen. Analyserna tyder på att Basotu-sjön är känslig för torra förhållanden med potential att torka ut till en våtmark. Moderna förändringar i Basotu-sjöns utbredning registrerades genom manuell avgränsning av strandlinjer i Landsat-registreringar från 1973 till 2015. Förändringar mellan registreringsåren jämfördes med lokala nederbördsdata samt med ENSO- och IOD-index. Resultaten indikerar att Basotu-sjön har blivit mer känslig för extrem nederbörd sedan ca 1996. Översvämningar under de senaste åren föregicks av ett försök att implementera mekaniserad veteodling i området kring Basotu-sjön, och är en sannolik effekt av en ökad sedimenttransport till Basotu-sjön på grund av otillräckliga markvårdsåtgärder. För att fastställa hur markanvändningsaktiviteter kan ha påverkat sjöns ekologi jämfördes en markanvändningskronologi som går tillbaka till början av 1960- talet med de moderna sjönivåvariationerna. Telefonintervjuer genomfördes med två lokala informanter för att validera information i tidningsartiklar och rapporter från biståndsorganisationer. Den areella ökningen av veteodling i Hanang- distriktet uppvisade en negativ korrelation med sjöstorleken, sannolikt ett resultat av regnbevattning av veteodlingarna, vilket har minskat ytavrinningen och därmed tillskottet av vatten till sjön. Studien av Basotu-sjön indikerar att stora svängningar i sjöns vattennivå inte är onormala. Emellertid har människans miljöpåverkan sedan 1960-talet sannolikt ökat sjöns känslighet mot fluktuationer i nederbörd. Arbetet som presenteras i denna avhandling bidrar till att bättre förstå hur Basotu-sjön reagerar på såväl naturliga som antropogena processer, och ger riktlinjer för framtida forskning i liknande miljöer. Vidare presenteras belägg som betonar att Basotu-sjön är viktig för förståelsen av potentiella effekter av klimatförändringar och mänsklig aktivitet på vattenresurser i regionen. Thesis Content This thesis consists of three papers and a comprehensive summary. The three papers are referred to as papers I–III and include: one published, one in review, and one manuscript. The results of the three papers are summarized in chapter 4 of the comprehensive summary. I Higgins, L., Westerberg, L. O., Risberg, J., Snowball, I. & Andersen, T.J. (2016). Sediment Based Reconstruction of Environmental Change in Basotu, Tanzania. Manuscript. II Higgins, L., Koutsouris, A. J., Westerberg, L. O., & Risberg, J. (2016). Surface Area Variability of a North-Central Tanzanian Crater Lake. Geosciences, 6, 27. III Higgins, L. & Caretta, M.A. (2016) Lake Extent Changes in Basotu, Tanzania: A Mixed Methods Approach to Understanding the Impacts of Anthropogenic Influence and Climate Variability. Accepted in current form by Landscape Research. Author Contributions Contributions from each author are divided as follows: I L.H.: Participated in fieldwork, contributed to design of project, performed analysis, primary author of text, constructed figures and maps. L-O.W: Participated in fieldwork, contributed to design of project, consulted on analysis of data and editing of text. J.R.: Participated in fieldwork, contributed to design of project, consulted on analysis of data and editing of text. I.S.: Completed mineral magnetic measurements and was consulted in the analysis. Also contributed to methods section. T.J.A.: Completed lead-210 dating and was consulted in the analysis. Also contributed to methods section. II L.H.: Conceived idea, designed project, performed analysis, primary author of text, constructed figures and maps. A.J.K.: Contributed data and text for methods section. Consulted on mapping of watershed. L-O.W.: Editing of text. J.R.: Editing of text. III L.H.: Conceived idea, collected data, performed analysis, primary author of text, constructed figures and maps. M.A.C.: Performed telephone interviews and contributed to text Contents 1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................
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