Flowers, elephants & conflicts: Kenya’s progress on inequality & sustainability 9 December 2016 David Powell, New Economics Foundation Kenya
Four case studies
Turkana County
Mount Kenya
Lake Naivasha
(Tana Delta) Kenya
GDP doubled since 1960 (US$ nominal)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1960 1982 1990 1998 2012 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2014 Kenya
Income share of top & bottom deciles
70
60
50
40
30
20 Percentage of income share income of Percentage 10
0 1992 1994 1997 2005 Highest 10% Lowest 10% Highest 20% Lowest 20% Kenya
Inequality
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
GINI INDEX GINI 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 National Urban Rural Turkana Nyeri Nakuru Tana River Kenya
Electricity access across Kenya
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 % WITH ACCESS TOELECTRICITY ACCESS WITH %
0 National Rural Urban Turkana Nyeri Tana River Nakuru population population population Kenya
Greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2012
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Kilotonnes Kilotonnes of CO2equivalent 10000
0
1976 1986 1996 2006 1970 1972 1974 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 Kenya
De/reforestation 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 Percentage land of area that forestis
0
1995 1997 2006 2008 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Turkana County Turkana County
Large arid region dominated by nomadic pastoralists
Borders Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan
Investment infrastructure lacking – worst in Kenya Turkana County
Suffering prolonged drought
Higher competition for resources & dangerous borders
Climate change is added factor
Conflict results Turkana County
Oil discovered
Communal land privatised
Inward migration and investment increased
More jobs but poorly paid
Communities to benefit but need tenure of land Turkana County
“The leaders in that part of the country are taking advantage of the ignorance of the people of Turkana. Due to their lack of education they don't understand their rights, they don’t even know what a title deed is because they have never had it. That is why they are losing out.”
Kenyan social justice activist, Boniface Mwangi, 2015 Mount Kenya Mount Kenya
Tourism is 10% Kenya GDP
Strong economic incentive to preserve wildlife
But across Africa biodiversity is decreasing
Animals and people don’t always live peacefully side by side Mount Kenya
2,600 elephants in Mount Kenya National Park
A protected area of 2,800km2 which ends abruptly against one of most densely populated regions in country
Dry season lasting longer, soil less productive, glaciers depleter Mount Kenya
Farmers lose crops and money through elephant raids – estimated over 2,000 a year
Particular impact on subsistence farmers
Protests
Farmers feel of secondary importance Mount Kenya
Strategies to manage include education; compensation schemes; partial access to reserve
Mount Kenya Elephant Corridor creates access points
Must engage local people and share benefits of ecotourism Lake Naivasha Lake Naivasha
Population of Kenya has doubled since 1990
Freshwater resources have declined by 45%
How to square population and industry with finite natural resources with many claims? Lake Naivasha
Only freshwater lake in Rift Valley
1982 first farm started to cultivate flowers – now 100
Population boom around lake – 500,000 people
Experts fear could dry up by 2035
Run-off back into lake, impacting wildlife Lake Naivasha
Big impact on communities that traditionally call the basin home – Masai & Kikuyu
Land privatised, less access to grazing pastures
Voice not heard in formal agreements, lacking political power
How to balance competing demands? Implications
Economic growth alone won’t deliver environmental sustainability or inequality
Everyone’s rights (to natural resources) must be taken equally seriously
Short-term benefits mask long-term costs