Flowers, elephants & conflicts: Kenya’s progress on inequality & sustainability 9 December 2016 David Powell, New Economics Foundation Kenya Four case studies Turkana County Mount Kenya Lake Naivasha (Tana Delta) 1000 1200 GDP doubled since 1960 (US$ nominal)(US$ 1960since doubledGDP Kenya 200 400 600 800 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Kenya Income share of top & bottom deciles 70 60 50 40 30 20 Percentage of income share income of Percentage 10 0 1992 1994 1997 2005 Highest 10% Lowest 10% Highest 20% Lowest 20% Kenya Inequality 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 GINI INDEX GINI 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 National Urban Rural Turkana Nyeri Nakuru Tana River Kenya Electricity access across Kenya 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % WITH ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY ACCESS WITH% 0 National Rural Urban Turkana Nyeri Tana River Nakuru population population population Greenhouse gas emissions 1970 emissions gas Greenhouse Kenya Kilotonnes of CO2 equivalent 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 - 2012 2012 De/reforestation Kenya Percentage of land area that is forest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Turkana County Turkana County Large arid region dominated by nomadic pastoralists Borders Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan Investment infrastructure lacking – worst in Kenya Turkana County Suffering prolonged drought Higher competition for resources & dangerous borders Climate change is added factor Conflict results Turkana County Oil discovered Communal land privatised Inward migration and investment increased More jobs but poorly paid Communities to benefit but need tenure of land Turkana County “The leaders in that part of the country are taking advantage of the ignorance of the people of Turkana. Due to their lack of education they don't understand their rights, they don’t even know what a title deed is because they have never had it. That is why they are losing out.” Kenyan social justice activist, Boniface Mwangi, 2015 Mount Kenya Mount Kenya Tourism is 10% Kenya GDP Strong economic incentive to preserve wildlife But across Africa biodiversity is decreasing Animals and people don’t always live peacefully side by side Mount Kenya 2,600 elephants in Mount Kenya National Park A protected area of 2,800km2 which ends abruptly against one of most densely populated regions in country Dry season lasting longer, soil less productive, glaciers depleter Mount Kenya Farmers lose crops and money through elephant raids – estimated over 2,000 a year Particular impact on subsistence farmers Protests Farmers feel of secondary importance Mount Kenya Strategies to manage include education; compensation schemes; partial access to reserve Mount Kenya Elephant Corridor creates access points Must engage local people and share benefits of ecotourism Lake Naivasha Lake Naivasha Population of Kenya has doubled since 1990 Freshwater resources have declined by 45% How to square population and industry with finite natural resources with many claims? Lake Naivasha Only freshwater lake in Rift Valley 1982 first farm started to cultivate flowers – now 100 Population boom around lake – 500,000 people Experts fear could dry up by 2035 Run-off back into lake, impacting wildlife Lake Naivasha Big impact on communities that traditionally call the basin home – Masai & Kikuyu Land privatised, less access to grazing pastures Voice not heard in formal agreements, lacking political power How to balance competing demands? Implications Economic growth alone won’t deliver environmental sustainability or inequality Everyone’s rights (to natural resources) must be taken equally seriously Short-term benefits mask long-term costs.