Agrarian land use transformation in Northern

Sithong Thongmanivong and Khamla Phanvilay, Faculty of Forestry Yayoi Fujita, LSUAFRP Jefferson Fox, East West Center

Sustainable Sloping Lands and Watershed Management Workshop , December 2006 Presentation outlines

• Objectives of the study • Research question and Methodologies • Main findings • Discussion and future considerations for research Objectives

• Understand the impact of land use change on local resource tenure and local livelihood

• Investigate driving forces (i.e. government policies, population, economy) Study Area

China

Myanmar China

Vietnam Louang Namtha Myanmar

Laos

Bokeo Province

Thailand Thailand

Cambodia Background: northern Laos

• High poverty incidence among rural population • Transition from subsistence to market economy • Integration to regional economies Background: northern Laos

• Implementation of government policies on – Land and forest allocation – shifting cultivation – Opium abolition

Research questions

• What is the current land use pattern along the new Economic Corridor?

• How does demographic change affect natural resources and land use?

• What are the driving forces of farmer’s decisions on land use and farming system? Research method

• Spatial analysis – Demographic change – Land use change • Policy review • Village land use history • Village and household survey (i.e. cognitive mapping, interviews)

Data collection

• Spatial data: Landsat, Aster, DEM, village location, Census data • Agricultural statistic (e.g. NSC, MAF, PAFO, DAFEO) • Village and household interviews • Cognitive maps on factors that lead to planting rubber Preliminary findings Demographic change Sing District Ethnic distribution Sing District

Ethnic 1995 Ethnic 2005

ETHNIC GROUP OTHER FEATURES Akha Dam, Phunoi Hmong Khmu District boundary µ

Leu Lue, Nua Nua Mi en Road network Mekong River 010205KM Demographic change Viengphoukha District

Population 1995 Population 2005

POPULATION OTHER FEATURES National high way > 1000 µ < 200 201 - 500 501 - 1000 Di stri ct boundary Road network 010205kM Ethnic distribution Viengphoukha District

Ethnic 1995 Ethnic 2005

ETHNIC OTHER FEATURES Khmu Yang Hmong Kui District boundary National high way µ Akha Khmu and Kui Road network Leu Mi x Leu and Kui 010205kM Forestcover change Sing District

80

70

60

50

40

% of calculated area % 30

20

10

0 1973 1986 1988 1991 1992 1993 1999 2000 2004

Forest Non-forest

Landuse change Sing District

Landuse 2000 Landuse 2005

Legend Legend Forest Forest Grass land Grass land Lowland agriculture Lowland agriculture Secondary forest Secondary forest Upland agriculture Upland agriculture Water Water District centre District centre District boundary District boundary

06123Km µ 06123Km µ Landuse Change

1400

1200

1000 Forest dense

800 Secondary forest Grass and shrubs

Thousands Thousands 600 Upland agriculture

400 Lowland agriculture

200

0 E TM+ 2000 Aster 2005

Area of rice production Unit: ha

16 14

12 1985 10 1990 8 1995 2000 Thousands 6 2004 4 2 0 Bokeo Luang Namtha Bokeo

Paddy rice Upland rice Maize and sugarcane production Unit: ton

80 1985 70 1990 60

Thousands 1995 50 40 2000 30 2003 20 10 0 Luang Namtha Bokeo Luang Namtha Bokeo

Maize S ugarcane Rubber plantation [ ha ]

25

Thousands 20

Existing 15 P lan to 2010

10

5

0 Luang Namtha Bokeo

Discussion: observed trend

• Concentration of population along the road in lower elevation • Conversion of swidden and fallow forest to permanent agricultural land • Increased privatization of resources, and competition over land • From multiple livelihood options to selecting key livelihood activities Challenges for future research

• Impact of agricultural commercialization in uplands on forest and watershed • Impact of agricultural commercialization and privatization of land on communal resource management practice • Changing patterns of livelihood basis • Gaps of information and policy implementation • Cross border trade issues Thanks for your kind attention