Research Matters

ISSUE 73 MARCH 2016 ISSN 1448-6881

Welcome to Issue 73 of Research Matters, In this issue … the Department of Environment, Land, This issue of Research Matters begins with the continued rise Water & Planning’s quarterly planning of transit oriented development. The article highlights the research bulletin, featuring DELWP renewal of Melbourne’s inner north along tram routes and research and analysis, news about the role of state policy and local planning in facilitating this. recently released data, and research from other sources. If you have any questions The history of Melbourne’s growth area suburbs is also or comments, you can contact us at: explored in this issue by looking at lot sizes and housing diversity. The article also uses data from the Urban [email protected] Development Program (UDP) to demonstrate the housing Contents diversity patterns seen in current outer and middle ring suburbs. 1 In this issue … Finally, the Forward Policy and Research team have suggested 2 The Continuing Rise of Transit some useful websites that cover demographic, housing, Oriented Development in transport, cities, public policy and economic issues. Melbourne

5 The Changing Face of Melbourne's Outer Suburbs

8 Helpful Websites

© The State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Accessibility Planning 2016 If you would like to receive this publication in an alternative format, please telephone DELWP Customer Service Centre 136 186, email [email protected], via the National Relay Service on 133 677 www.relayservice.com.au. This document is also available on the internet at www.delwp.vic.gov.au

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You Disclaimer are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees State of Victoria as author. The licence does not apply to any images, photographs or do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly branding, including the Victorian Coat of Arms, the Victorian Government logo and the appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning logo. To view a copy of this error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en in this publication. ISSN 1448-6881 www.delwp.vic.gov.au 1 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 73 MARCH 2016

The Continuing Rise of Transit-Oriented Development in Melbourne

Since the release of the Melbourne 2030 strategic are expected to gain 6,000 new dwellings. The plan in 2003, State and local government planning north-western suburbs, with a less extensive tram policy has generally supported increasing residential network, are predicted to have 4,000 new dwellings density along transport corridors. Figure 1 depicts added in the near future. how, since 2010, dwelling numbers in these Major roads in the inner northern suburbs have locations have increased substantially. already experienced significant dwelling and Development along transport corridors is set to population growth which is expected to continue. further increase over the next few years. Urban Sydney Road in Brunswick is expected to increase by Development Program data indicate that the recent 900 dwellings. The Pentridge site in Coburg is addition of approximately 4,000 dwellings per year predicted to accommodate 3,000 more dwellings. near transport infrastructure may increase to over High Street in Northcote, is anticipated to increase 10,000 dwellings in the coming years (Victorian by 1,000 dwellings, while Smith Street in State Government 2015). Collingwood and Fitzroy will see an extra 900 dwellings added to the suburb. Finally, the northern The majority of this growth (16,000 dwellings) is set end of Nicholson Street in Brunswick East will gain to occur in Melbourne’s northern suburbs. Suburbs 900 dwellings. in the south are expected to see 13,000 more dwellings, while transport corridors in the east

Figure 1: Dwellings constructed within 100m of tram lines outside Melbourne CBD

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Figure 2: Future Development within 100m of tram lines outside of CBD

The councils of Maribyrnong, Moreland, Darebin growth expected over the next couple of years, the and Yarra have embraced transit orientated challenge will be maintaining the transport services development (Brunswick Structure Plan 2010, that made them desirable for development in the Northcote Structure Plan 2007, Smith Street first place. Structure Plan 2008), often creating focus areas of development that combine with the activity centres The growth of Melbourne’s tram corridors outlined in Melbourne 2030. These municipalities emphasise the way in which state policy can successfully combine with local planning to achieve have also taken advantage of their industrial past and rezoned large areas of former industrial land broader community objectives related to urban along transport corridors for residential consolidation and transport oriented development. development.

The success of such local policies in focusing development is clearly shown in the graph and map above. However, with unprecedented dwelling www.delwp.vic.gov.au 3 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 73 MARCH 2016

References

City of Darebin, 2007 ‘Northcote Activity Centre Structure Plan,’ April 2007, Prepared by Ecologically Sustainable Design & alphaPlan, accessed 1st March 2015, https://www.darebin.vic.gov.au/~/media/cityofdarebin/Files/Bu ilding-and- Business/PlanningandDevelopment/ZoningandPolicies/Referenc eDocuments/Northcote_Activity_Centre_Structure_Plan_April_ 2007.ashx?la=en Moreland City Council, 2010 ‘Brunswick Structure Plan – Strategic Framework,’ Adopted by Council 11/8/2010, accessed 1st March 2015. http://www.moreland.vic.gov.au/globalassets/areas/strategic- planning/brunswick-structure-plan-volume-1-part-1.pdf Victorian State Government, Department of Infrastructure, October 2002, ‘Melbourne 2030 – Planning for Sustainable Growth’ accessed 1st March 2015. http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/22829 9/2030_complete.pdf Victoria State Government, Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning, 2015 ‘Urban Development Program 2015 – Metropolitan Melbourne’ accessed 1st March 2015. http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/planning/plans-and-policies/urban- development-program/2015-housing-and-industrial-land-data City of Yarra, 2008 ‘Smith Street Strucutre Plan,’ adopted Medium density development at the junction of Plenty st by council 18/11/2008, accessed 1 March 2015. Road, High Street and Dundas Street, Preston. The area is http://www.yarracity.vic.gov.au/DownloadDocument.ashx?Doc directly served by tram and bus and is a 10 minute walk umentID=5251 from Thornbury railway station. Photo: Fiona McKenzie, 2015.

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The Changing Face of Melbourne's Outer Suburbs

Since 2003, the Victorian Government has produced suburbs were further from Melbourne’s CBD, they an annual Urban Development Program. The were preferred by many new households over the program reports on the supply, demand and inner city. consumption of residential and industrial land across metropolitan Melbourne. Having more than 10 Residential subdivisions were fairly uniform during these decades according to the codes and years’ worth of data allows unique insights into the planning and development of Melbourne’s newest regulations that governed subdivision design and suburbs. One of the most interesting aspects of layout. In effect, these lots are more easily re- subdivided today because of their rectangular lot change is the impact that the urban growth boundary, introduced in 2002, has had on shapes and uniformity. Ongoing urban growth has made these once fringe suburbs of the 50s and 60s development in these areas. into highly sought after middle ring suburbs with Historically, land development on the fringes of the established amenity. Additional houses are often metropolitan area provided Melburnians with their built on the back of these larger lots, or existing ‘Great Australian Dream’ – a brand new house on a houses demolished to make way for units or quarter acre block. During the 1950s, 60s and 70s, townhouses. these new suburbs provided space and large back yards to raise a family. Even though these

Figure 1: Household Sullage Water from Properties in Unsewered Areas, Melbourne, 1957 Source: Victorian Places

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Current subdivision practices on Melbourne’s fringe However, ten years on from the introduction of the are changing rapidly, particularly in relation to lot urban growth boundary, Melbourne’s outer urban size. Each year the average lot size for new lot landscape has changed. During this period, medium construction within Melbourne’s growth areas has density housing increased in Melbourne’s urban decreased. Figure 2 depicts the fall in numbers of larger lot sizes and the increase in number of smaller fringe areas on greenfield land. New and innovative lot sizes in Melbourne’s growth areas over the past ‘urban villages’ are also being constructed, such as 10 years. Waratah Gardens and the Cotters in Epping (figure With the introduction of the urban growth boundary 3). These complexes reflect high density apartment in 2002, there was a perception from parts of the style living, complete with cafés and gymnasiums. development industry that the restriction of land supply would limit developers capacity to innovate.

Figure 2: Broad hectare lot construction for Melbourne’s growth areas, by lot size, 2005-06 to 2014-15 Source: UDP – Urban Development Program 2015

Figure 3: The Cotters: Apartments Epping – medium density housing on greenfield land in the urban fringe Source: Style Craft Builder 2016

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The demographic profile of Melburnians has the market, and adapted accordingly (figure 4). The changed in more recent years, with more single provision more diverse housing on our fringe areas parent households and first homebuyers entering not only provides choice of product according to the the market, as well as retirees requiring less space markets’ requirements, but it has assisted in but wanting to locate close to their families. It maintaining an affordable product to a broad range appears that the industry has effectively ‘listened’ to of Melbourne’s residents.

Figure 4: Example of home and land packages in relation to lot size in Caroline Springs (Delfin Lend Lease) Source: Lendlease 2016

References Lendlease 2016, ‘Caroline Springs’, accessed 21/3/16. http://www.lendlease.com/australia/projects/caroline-springs. Style Craft Builder 2016, ‘The Cotters: Apartments, Epping’, accessed 21/3/16. http://www.stylecraftbuilders.com.au/house-land- packages.aspx

Victorian Places, ‘Household Sullage Water from

Properties in Unsewered Areas, Melbourne, 1957,’ Quarterly Journal of the Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works, accessed 21/3/16. http://www.victorianplaces.com.au/node/65205

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Helpful Websites The staff in the Forward Policy and Research Transport team spend a lot of time using various Charting Transport Internet resources. Some of their favourite http://chartingtransport.com/ sites are listed below. Transport data for Melbourne, Victoria and Australia which provides views on public domain transport Demography data through charts and maps. ABS – Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/ Cities Australia’s national statistical agency which provides Crikey/The Urbanist official statistics on economic, social, population and http://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/ environmental issues. A blog for discussion about cities, including .id The Population Experts transport, planning, development and social issues. http://home.id.com.au/ Suburb Profile Provides demographic resources through in-depth http://house.ksou.cn/suburb.php: profiles of local government areas and suburbs A Chinese website that generates profile data on across Australia and New Zealand Australian suburbs.

Housing Public Policy Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute The Brookings Institution http://www.ahuri.edu.au/home http://www.brookings.edu/about/programs/metro A national independent research network which Public policy organisation that conducts in-depth provides high quality research which influences research that leads to new ideas for solving policy development to improve housing and urban problems facing society at the local, national and environments in Australia. global level. Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victoria) The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy http://www.udiavic.com.au http://www.lincolninst.edu/ Represents the interests of the residential property Independent organisation that informs public development industry in Victoria and provides dialogue and decisions about land policy through information for those associated with the property planning and urban form, valuation and taxation and development industry. international studies both in the United States and Urban Melbourne internationally. https://urban.melbourne/about Economics Independent source of medium and high density urban projects in metropolitan Melbourne and SGS Economics & Planning regional Victorian cities through providing a public http://www.sgsep.com.au/ and open database of projects. Independent research into economics and planning related issues. Property Values https://www.propertyvalue.com.au/

A website that provides insight into Australian property. In particular, it presents information on development permits for individual properties.

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Research Matters

ISSUE 74 JUNE 2016 ISSN 1448‐6881

Welcome to Issue 74 of Research Matters, In this issue … the Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning’s quarterly planning The first article in this month’s Research Matters uses the research bulletin, featuring DELWP Housing Development Data (HDD) which is a spatial dataset research and analysis, news about that tracks residential construction and demolition. We now recently released data, and research from have this annual data for the decade 2005 to 2014 which other sources. If you have any questions provides unique insights into trends in residential or comments, you can contact us at: development in Melbourne. [email protected] The second article looks at a difficult‐to‐measure segment of our population – the mobile resident. Most population Contents measures are based on where people usually live, yet people may have more than one residence and may be in different 1 In this issue … locations at different times of the year or week. A new way to

estimate part time populations using council election data is 2 Release of Housing Development presented in this article. Data (HDD) 2014 To finish this edition of Research Matters, a dynamic 4 Measuring a moving target: part perspective on industrial land use is presented. Industrial land time populations can change, not only from vacant to occupied, but also in the other direction as older industrial buildings are demolished 6 Recycling industrial land and redevelopment occurs. This process allows for adaptation to new economic demands as well as creating opportunities for modernisation of buildings and processes.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You Disclaimer are free to re‐use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees State of Victoria as author. The licence does not apply to any images, photographs or do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly branding, including the Victorian Coat of Arms, the Victorian Government logo and the appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning logo. To view a copy of this error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en in this publication. ISSN 1448‐6881 www.delwp.vic.gov.au 1 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 74 JUNE 2016

Release of Housing Development Data (HDD) 2014

The Victorian Department of Environment, Land, As can be seen in figure 1, the 2012 to 2014 period Water and Planning (DELWP) has now received saw significant dwelling growth particularly in the Housing Development Data (HDD) for 2013 and City of Melbourne, Melbourne’s inner 2014, which means there is data for a full decade, municipalities, and the middle south eastern from 2005 to 2014. municipalities.

HDD is a spatial dataset that records the annual The middle south east group in figure 1 is made up location of all dwellings in Metropolitan Melbourne of five Local Government Areas (LGAs) that cover a as well as the construction and demolition of large area. In the 2010 to 2014 period, the middle dwellings. Unlike ABS Building Approvals data, which south east group of Councils added 3,300 dwellings are a widely‐used data source for looking at per annum as compared with 2,000 since the period residential development, HDD records individual from 2005 to 2009. These councils are also seeing a projects rather than aggregate numbers, and it also lot of one for one replacement activity in which records demolitions. existing houses are demolished and replaced by a new single dwelling. A total of 8,800 projects of this Because HDD shows the precise location of type were seen over the decade – only slightly dwellings and development projects, it can be used below the 9,200 seen in the other 26 LGAs to answer a wide range of questions about trends in combined. residential development, particularly in relation to the impact of planning policy on development outcomes.

Figure 1: Net new dwellings in the inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne. Source: DELWP 2015, Housing Development Data (HDD).

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Figure 2 compares net new dwellings by category of Figure 2 shows a major increase in aggregate housing development type between 2005 and 2014. The four development in the 2010 to 2014 period as compared categories used are: with to the 2005 to 2009 period. This was driven by the growth of urban renewal projects as is reflected  urban renewal, which refers to development in in the apartment boom, which started in the central commercial areas, formerly industrial areas, and the central city, usually larger projects and city and has now spread to the inner and middle usually apartments; suburbs.

 broadhectare, which refers to the new housing The HDD layers in Mapinfo format can be estates that are built on the edge of downloaded from the Victorian Government’s metropolitan Melbourne on formerly DataVic portal: agricultural land;  infill, which refers to redevelopment in https://www.data.vic.gov.au/data/dataset/project‐layer‐ residential zones which is usually small scale and depicting‐housing‐activity‐over‐the‐years‐from‐2005‐and‐2014 replaces older dwellings with new dwellings; and Summary reports and spreadsheets are also

 peri‐urban, which refers to development outside available at the following link: the urban growth boundary but still within the 31 LGAs of metropolitan Melbourne. https://www.data.vic.gov.au/data/dataset/stock‐layer‐for‐ calendar‐year‐2014

Figure 2: Net new dwellings by type of development. Source: DELWP 2015, Housing Development Data (HDD)

Source: DELWP, Housing Development Database

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Measuring a moving target: part‐time populations

Most population measures are based on where In Local Government Council elections, those people usually live or work, yet people can be highly resident in the municipality and listed on the State mobile in how they live and work. People may have electoral role are required to vote. Some other more than one residence, for example, holiday categories of people may also vote, including up to homes, weekenders, and, for regional populations, a two non‐resident owners of any rateable residential dwelling in the city. property within the municipality (DTPLI 2013, p. 13). This requires Councils to have non‐residents listed Measuring mobile populations is inherently difficult, on voter lists, thus providing an alternative way to precisely because these people move. While peak access non‐resident data for the purpose of populations may look obvious, there are movements in estimating the scale of part‐time populations. and out of areas all the time. In a single location, the Following Council elections, the Victorian Electoral population may differ greatly between 10am and Commission (VEC) compiles a report on the conduct 10pm, between Monday and Saturday, or between of the elections which includes a list of voter April and December. numbers, with non‐resident voter numbers The Forward Policy and Research team is always on identified. The most recent post‐election review the lookout for new ways to estimate peak and part provides data for 2012 and is the basis for figure 1 time populations. Our latest source of data comes below (VEC 2013, pp 75‐87). from the Victorian Electoral Office.

% of total electors Inset: Melbourne 40 to 68 30 to <40 20 to <30 10 to <20 Less than 10

see inset

Figure 1: Non‐resident electors by Victorian Council Ward, 2012 Source: Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) 2013

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The map indicates that some regions have a very The VEC data source provides information at both high proportion of non‐resident landowners. Most the LGA and Ward level. Data are available for of these are within a 90 minute driving radius of metropolitan as well as non‐metropolitan areas Melbourne and include both inland areas like which provides comprehensive coverage. The data Mansfield and coastal areas like the Surf and Bass will be next updated following the 2016 round of Coast regions. Table 1 lists the Council Wards with council elections which will allow comparison of two more than 50% of electors being non‐resident. points in time using a consistent methodology.

Local Government Non-residential References Rank Council Ward Area (LGA) electors (%)

1 Jamieson Mansfield 68 Department of Transport, Planning and Local 2 Churchill Bass Coast 66 Infrastructure (DTPLI) 2013, Local Government Electoral 3 McHaffie Bass Coast 63 Review Discussion Paper, September 2013, Melbourne. 4 Lorne Surf Coast 60 5 Nepean Mornington Peninsula 59 Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) 2013, Report on 6 Thompson Bass Coast 59 Conduct of the 2012 Local Government Elections, 7 Bonnie Doon Mansfield 59 8 Anglesea Surf Coast 58 ‘Appendix 2: Municipal voter count by ward’, pp. 75‐87. 9 Coastal-Promontory Sth Gippsland 57 10 De Cameron Pyrenees 53

Table 1: Council Wards with more than 50% non‐ resident electors 2012. Source: Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) 2013

Source: http://www.aec.gov.au/media/image‐library/voting.htm

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Recycling Industrial Land Plan Melbourne identified five State Significant 200 and step toward pre‐GFC consumption rates Industrial Precincts (SSIP) ‐ the northern, which averaged 300 hectares per annum. western/central, and southern precincts, as well as emerging precincts in Pakenham and Hastings. Increasingly new and expanded industrial uses are locating in the SSIPs which emphasises their importance as sources of new economic activity. This trend is illustrated in recent industrial land analysis. In the 2014‐15 financial year, a total of 329 hectares of industrial land changed from vacant to occupied with most (72%) of this change occurring in the SSIPs (see Figure 1). Fig 2a: The original land with extensive use.

Vacant to Occupied (Developed)

Fig 2b: The surplus building is demolished, the use consolidated, and new vacant land produced.

Occupied to Vacant (Newly Vacant)

Fig 2c: The vacant land is redeveloped to provide new premises for a number of industrial users.

Traditionally the expansion of industrial uses has required new greenfield land, the example shown in Figure 1: Components of consumption in State Significant Industrial Precincts (SSIPs) 2014‐15. Figure 2 illustrates a slightly different process. In this Source: DELWP 2015. case, an existing business (2a) recycles their excess land holding by consolidating their operations on part of the original site (2b) with the remainder During this time, some 53 hectares of industrial land being redeveloped (2c). became ‘newly vacant’ (changing from occupied to vacant) with most of this (67%) in areas outside the This example occurred in the Southern Dandenong SSIPs. When the amount of developed land is SSIP where new land supply is relatively more subtracted from newly vacant land, net industrial constrained. The changing nature of industrial uses consumption for the 2014‐15 financial year was 276 may see more recycling of land and creation of hectares. This is an increase on the previous year of larger number of smaller premises.

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Research Matters

ISSUE 75 SEPTEMBER 2016 ISSN 1448‐6881

Welcome to Issue 75 of Research Matters, the Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning’s quarterly planning In this issue … research bulletin, featuring DELWP research and analysis, news about It has been a busy few months in the DELWP research area. recently released data, and research from other sources. If you have any questions A recent publication produced by the group uses or comments, you can contact us at: demographic data for the purpose of better understanding risks and impacts of bushfires. The publication pulls together [email protected] information on key indicators that show potential vulnerabilities in Victorian communities. The report also Contents summarises our knowledge about mobile populations and how these are related to the risk profiles of certain regions. 1 In this issue … The second article in this edition reports on a regional 2 Publication: Demographics for population summit which was held in July. The summit was organised by Regional Development Victoria (RDV) and Fire Risk Analysis featured a presentation by one of our own team members.

4 Conference Report: Regional The latest edition of Victoria in Future 2016 population Futures Summit projections has been released – The final article in this edition of Research Matters outlines some of the key 5. Victoria in Future 2016 released highlights.

Publication: Demographics for Fire Risk Analysis

4. part time and peak populations. Fire is a natural part of the Australian landscape. Despite the massive personal and financial impacts of major bushfires on communities, population levels and growth rates generally return to the pre‐ disaster situation within 3‐5 years (figure 1).

The concept of risk involves the interplay of hazard, exposure and vulnerability(Canterford 2011). Vulnerability refers to the degree to which individuals and communities may be impacted by

the hazard. Although individuals vary in how they http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/297677/Dem respond to, and recover from, an emergency event, ographics‐for‐Fire‐Risk‐Analysis‐June‐2016.pdf vulnerability assessment can provide some insights Over the years, the research team here in DELWP for planners and policy makers in relation to ‘at risk’ has undertaken demographic analysis for various communities and locations. environmental policy purposes. One of our recent Table 1 outlines the factors which may increase the publications brings together a range of data to vulnerability of individuals and communities. These inform fire risk analysis. The report entitled: factors were developed for use by the Geoscience Demographics for Fire Risk Analysis. Regional Australia Risk Impact and Analysis Group and are Victoria and Peri‐urban Melbourne, is jointly based on a literature review and stakeholder published by the Victorian Government and feedback. These indicators may be important for Geoscience Australia pre‐disaster situations (eg. preparedness) or post‐ DELWP has several teams with an interest in this disaster situations (eg. ability to recover). topic. The Fire Division has a direct role in Measures of vulnerability are indicative – they do firefighting but also undertakes sophisticated not predict how a particular individual will respond modelling work for fire behaviour and risk analysis. to a specific event. Nevertheless, research studies Community engagement for fire preparedness and have shown that some characteristics are associated fire recovery is also undertaken by this Division. with an individual’s level of vulnerability before, Meanwhile, land use planning has an interest in during or after a disaster. considering fire risk before making decisions about new suburban development. Population characteristics change over time which means that patterns of vulnerability can also change The compilation of information presented in the over time. Children may be born, increasing the publications is divided into four sections: number of infants, or people may age in place. In 1. a review of previous bushfires in Victoria and Melbourne’s fringe and peri urban areas, the their impact on population growth; pattern of ageing in place is likely to cause a 2. mapped indicators highlighting potential significant increase in numbers of older people. population vulnerabilities in relation to fire Vulnerabilities may differ seasonally. People can be hazard; highly mobile in how they live and work. They may 3. population dynamics and changing risk profiles have more than one residence, for example, holiday over time; and, www.delwp.vic.gov.au 2 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 75 SEPTEMBER 2016

homes, weekenders, and, for regional populations, a Table 1: Population vulnerability indicators relevant townhouse in the city. Population mobility presents to natural hazard risk analysis particular challenges for risk assessment and emergency management.

Towns may vary in population size by a factor of four or five during particular seasons of the year. Popular visitor and holiday locations such as the Dandenong Ranges and Great Ocean Road have particularly high fire risk. Planning for fire therefore requires an understanding of both permanent and part‐time populations.

Some communities will have a greater measure of vulnerability than others and some locations may display multiple types. While the indicators may reflect an individual measure, the vulnerability level of a household will be determined by its weakest rather than its strongest member.

Measures of vulnerability are the flip side of resilience ‐ a community which has low levels of vulnerability can be considered resilient.

References

Canterford, S. 2009, ‘Demographic analysis’ in Bushfire CRC, Victorian 2009 Bushfire Research Response, Final Report. October 2009. Canterford, S. 2011, ‘Locating people spatially: 2006, 2010 and 2.36pm on Friday’, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies 17(1), 46‐59.

Figure 1: Extent of Ash Wednesday, 16 February 1983 and subsequent impacts on population in selected towns.

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Conference Report: Regional Futures Summit

The Regional Futures Summit was held in Bendigo, 19‐20 July 2016. It was hosted by Regional Development Victoria (RDV) and included speeches from two State Government Ministers – the Minister for Planning, the Hon. Richard Wynne and the Minister for Regional Development, the Hon. Jaala Pulford. Over 100 people attended the Summit including: local government representatives, CEOs and economic development managers; industry and economic development associations; and community and not‐for‐profit groups.

The theme of the Summit was population attraction Panel session at the Summit. L to R: Ian Harper, and retention and it aimed to deepen participants’ Deloitte; Jack Archer, RAI; Fiona McKenzie, DELWP understanding of forces affecting regional and rural populations. This included a review of case studies Jack Archer, CEO of the Regional Australia Institute, where population attraction had been successful, argued that innovative approaches could be used to but also a review of demographic constraints on attract international migrants to regional areas. Mr population growth in some areas. Archer noted that migrants should be targeted as groups, with rural communities encouraged to Regional Victoria faces diverse population advertise that “We have jobs, housing and we want challenges. On the one hand, rural councils often you”. The experience of Nhill was once again bought struggle with an ageing population and younger up as an example to be emulated. residents leaving the area for education and employment opportunities. On the other, many The workshops which followed the panel discussion regional city LGAs are faced with the challenge of showcased various examples of innovation. A accommodating strong population growth. representative from Bendigo Bank talked about the bank’s commitment to recruiting from regional Mr Ian Harper, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, areas as a means of building human capital, stressed that regional Victoria could flourish if it maintaining a stable workforce and giving something focused on innovation and played to its comparative back to the regional community. advantages. This type of economic development could occur even without population growth. John Richmond, Principal of the Birchip P‐12 School, discussed ways in which the school had developed Fiona McKenzie, senior researcher from DELWP, programs to link students with local employers in highlighted the need to define regional success the region, thus creating pathways for young people more broadly. Through the use of case studies, she to remain in the area. highlighted how success could be defined in other ways. The town of Nhill, by resettling 160 refugees, The Summit provided a valuable forum at which to has addressed local skills shortages and has added discuss a range of population narratives for regional to community diversity. Likewise, the town of Victoria. Population growth rates will vary across the Stawell which, faced with closure of its gold mine state but this does not have to limit the ability for managed to have it turned into an underground communities to be diverse, innovative and physics laboratory. This adaption to circumstance prosperous. has been a boost to economic and social diversity. www.delwp.vic.gov.au 4 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 75 SEPTEMBER 2016

Victoria in Future 2016 released

Victoria is growing strongly ‐ and we can expect this to continue. That's the take‐home message from the updated Victoria in Future 2016 population projections, released by the Land Use and Population Research team in July.

Having just reached a population milestone – six million Victorians – the state is headed for a population of over ten million by mid‐century.

Steady fertility rates and continuing migration from overseas are the key drivers of future population change. Growth is uneven though – not everywhere is growing, and some places grow faster than others.

Wyndham can expect the largest growth of any municipality – increasing by almost 200,000 people to a population of approximately 360,000 by 2031. Greater Geelong, with an expected increase of around 80,000 will have the strongest growth in Victoria’s regions. The fastest growth – by annual average rate of increase – will be in Melton (4.4%) and Mitchell (4.3%).

As the population grows, it is also ageing. Right now approximately every fiftieth Victorian is aged 85 years or over. By 2051 one in every 22 Victorians is expected to have reached that age. Our average life expectancy by then will have increased to 88 years for males and 90 years for females.

By 2031 the Shire of Gannawarra can expect 7% of its population to be 85 years old or over. The highest proportion in Melbourne will be in Manningham (5%). The areas with the highest proportion of late teens and young adults (aged 15‐24 years) will be the City of Melbourne (18%), and in the regions, Wodonga (14%).

All these details and more are available from the Victoria in Future 2016 website (www.delwp.vic.gov.au/victoria‐in‐future

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Research Matters

ISSUE 76 DECEMBER 2016

Welcome to Issue 76 of Research Matters, the Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning’s quarterly planning In this issue … research bulletin, featuring DELWP research and analysis, news about With Christmas approaching, it is only proper that we begin our first recently released data, and research from article with a ‘dad joke’ from our fun‐loving demographers. They other sources. If you have any questions recently hosted the annual Australia and New Zealand Population or comments, you can contact us at: Workshop which brought together demographers, researchers and academics to discuss all things demographic. Highlights from the [email protected] workshop are provided in the first article.

Keeping the cross‐jurisdictional perspective, the second article in Contents this edition of Research Matters examines housing price patterns in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Importantly, the article highlights p. 1 In this issue … that many of the reported price trends we hear about are not based on data that are truly comparable. p. 2 Victoria hosts Australia New As a final nod to the festive season, we bring you a selected set of Zealand Population Workshop 2016 holiday reading recommendations on energy efficiency in urban design and building. p. 3 A tale of two (or three) cities ‐ differences in property price change between Australian cities

p. 5 Some ‘energising’ Christmas reading

Victoria hosts Australia New Zealand Population Workshop 2016

Q. What do demographers talk about when Highlights included: they get together?  Tom Mulholland and Anna Piscicelli from A. Matters of life and death. Western Australian Government speaking on two aspects of fertility modelling, including a In November our demographic research team "Decomposition of the number of babies born hosted the annual Australia New Zealand Population over time and space" (no TARDIS involved); Workshop (ANZPW) at the Dialogue Conference  Kim Dunstan from New Zealand on the difficulty Centre in Melbourne. ANZPW is the annual get‐ of setting modelling assumptions at the peak of together for public sector demographers ‐ a great a migration cycle (numbers of permanent and opportunity for all our analysts, researchers and long‐term arrivals to NZ are currently about 20% modellers to share stories and workshop methods above previous 30‐year highs); with their peers. Participants came from state planning departments and treasuries, Statistics New  Angelique Parr from NSW on the 'technical Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, difficulties' caused for modellers by council Commonwealth Grants Commission, Geoscience amalgamations and changes to LGA boundaries; Australia and Commonwealth Treasury, plus a  our own Fiona McKenzie on the results of a couple of special guest academics. survey into migration pathways of professionals working in Bendigo; Key themes involved trends and trajectories for the usual demographic factors: births; deaths;  an outline of a new study into temporary popu‐ migration; household formation; and, occupancy. lations from Jonathan Corcoran and Elin Charles‐ Presentations and discussion focused on ways in Edwards from University of Queensland; and, which these factors could be encapsulated in  Mitchell Valentine, also from our team, on ways elegant and informative models and how the results to update our data presentations using Tableau. might be communicated to users. The next big event on the demographic calendar is the biennial Australian Population Association Conference in Sydney starting 29 November. Our demographers will be presenting on Melbourne's apartment boom and the impact this has had on the preparation of small area population projections.

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A tale of two (or three) cities ‐ differences in property price change between Australian cities

Not a week goes by without some media coverage of Statistic’s Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight the differences in property prices between Australian Capital Cities (cat. no. 6416.0). This stratifies cities. These are usually expressed in terms of dollar dwelling sales by dwelling type, long term median differences between cities or the short‐term move‐ price and suburb to take into account any changes in ments in median prices. The weakness of some of sales over time1. these comparisons is that they do not take into account the change in the composition of sales over Figure 1 shows this data for Melbourne. It shows time ‐ the sales in one period measure different sales three indexes: an index for established houses (i.e. to another period. If in one quarter the sales of sales of second hand detached houses rather than relatively cheap properties dominate the market and new houses); sales of attached dwellings (i.e. flats, in the subsequent quarter there are more sales of apartments, townhouses; and total sales of dwellings. relatively expensive properties, it may appear that It shows that prices for all the different types of house prices have increased even though the values of dwellings rose at about the same pace until about the individual properties may not have changed. 2013, with particularly rapid rises from 2008 to 2010 An often overlooked source of information that and a flattening out of price rises from 2010 to 2013. provides a robust and meaningful measure of Since 2013 prices of established houses have risen property price change is the Australian Bureau of much faster than attached dwellings.

Figure 1: Melbourne property price indexes, June 2006 – June 2016 (2011‐12=100)

1. For detailed explanation of the methodology see: ABS Residential Property Price Indexes: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2014 (cat. no. 6464.0) www.delwp.vic.gov.au 3 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 76 DECEMBER 2016

The data also allow cities to be compared. It should risen very strongly in Sydney, with relatively lower be noted that the index does not compare rises in Melbourne and Brisbane. differences in price between cities but differences in the change in price in each city over time. Price rises in Sydney have been most noticeable in established houses, which have risen by almost 60 When Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are per cent in five years, compared to a ‘relatively’ compared some differences and similarities are modest 35 per cent in Melbourne and 20 per cent in apparent (Figure 2). Of the three cities prices in Brisbane over the same period. Melbourne increase the most in the period from 2006 to 2010. All cities saw a flattening out of prices from 2010 to about 2012. Since then prices have

Figure 2: Residential Property Price Index: Sydney, Melbourne Brisbane June 2006 – June 2016 (2011‐12 = 100)

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Some ‘energising’ Christmas reading

This Christmas, will you be thinking ‘energy’? on vertical and horizontal surfaces and vegetation Yours? That of the building you are in? The produces some reduction in temperatures, but not place outside the building? Here are recently to the existing conditions. The authors propose that this is due to the substantial increase in constructed published items for festive reflection. surfaces preventing escape of warm air. ______They also note that the benefits of countermeasures The challenge of shape and form are more effective under the tree canopy. https://www.nhbcfoundation.org/wp‐content/uploads/2016/10/NF‐72‐ NHBC‐Foundation_Shape‐and‐Form.pdf Millennials, built form and travel insights from a This is a newly released report by the British NHBC nationwide typology of US neighborhoods (National House Building Council) Foundation. It Ralph, K., Voulgaris, C., Taylor, B., Blumenberg, E. and Brown, A. 2016, Journal of Transport Geography, 57: 218‐226 goes beyond the usual list of factors affecting energy loss in buildings to consider the design form of the The authors identify seven distinct neighbourhood building. Shape and form of a building need to be types based on characteristics of the built considered before adding energy saving items like environment and transport network. Using a typology insulation and efficient services. The authors test of travellers (drivers, long‐distance trekkers, five models of design using the Form Factor: multimodals and carless) they look at the relationship between built environment and travel. From this they Total heat loss area of walls, roofs, floors and opening (m2) deduce the combined effects of: density; diversity;

2 transience; stability; and accessibility on travel. They Habitable floor area of all storeys (m ) also consider the thresholds at which changes of They suggest that form may be at least as important as urban pattern might elicit change in travel patterns. orientation in determining energy consumption. The authors raise the perennial question in any Furthermore, improving the Form Factor can be a low‐ research on behaviour and the built environment: is a cost or no‐cost measure for many designers to adopt. relationship causal (or at least contributional) or a Thermal impact of a redeveloped area on localized matter of selective, a priori choice? urban microclimate: A case study in Rome Their study population is millennials – young people Battista, G., Carnielo, E. and De Lieto Vollaro, R. 2016 Energy and Buildings, 133(1): 446‐454 aged 16‐36 at the time of the survey in 2009. The analysis controls for socio‐economic factors, an This analysis explores the likely impacts on the important aspect when the work starts to model likely urban heat island of a new commercial building behaviour change in moving from one area to another. complex that has been designed as infill in an existing suburb. The case study uses collected data Eighty percent of the surveyed group were found to on wind, temperature, humidity and intensity of be predominately car drivers and one in five used solar radiation on the horizontal plane to model the public transport. Car‐based travel decreased in a impacts of the new complex. which will be set small number of denser neighbourhoods with good among existing buildings. public transport and an abundance of jobs. For other parts of the urban area, the authors conclude that it The modelling shows a potential increase in air would take a massive effort to adapt for the sake of temperature following construction of 2.5°C at 6am, reducing car use. However, they also find that built 3.5° at noon and 3° at 6pm. Further modelling of applied treatments such as the use of cool materials www.delwp.vic.gov.au 5 RESEARCH MATTERS ISSUE 76 DECEMBER 2016

environment characteristics can reduce the amount what degree can planners ameliorate the effects of of car travel. car parking and what effect has past strategic planning had in this regard? Mapping embodied environmental impacts in the built environment The RMIT‐based authors report on a perceived https://msd.unimelb.edu.au/mapping‐embodied‐environmental‐ decline of interest among planners in parking impacts‐in‐the‐built‐environment provision in a densifying Melbourne. They analyse Lastly, it will be worth keeping a watch on the work nine metropolitan strategic plans for Melbourne being done by the University of Melbourne in a between 1999 and 2016, offering many quotes from project whose aim is “to integrate building those schemes, to see what was said specifically embodied energy, water, greenhouse gas emissions about the role of car parking or more generally and materials into a graphical information system in about transport, housing diversity or density. order to inform future city planning and They use a typology of area management versus site management decisions that will help reduce the management, as well as whether parking has been environmental impact of the built environment”. considered as a public or a private good – that is, They plan to have some outputs by the end of 2016. demand‐based approaches versus predict‐and‐ The elephant in the scheme: planning for and provide. They also examine whether turnover rates around car parking in Melbourne 1929‐2016 rather than number of parking spaces has been a part Taylor, E. & van Bemmel‐Misrachi, R. 2017, Land Use Policy 60: 287‐297. of policy and conclude that “strategic planning now plans around parking – the elephant in the scheme”. Large car parking areas can contribute to urban heat islands and poor urban design outcomes. But to

Embodied environmental impacts https://msd.unimelb.edu.au/mapping‐embodied‐environmental‐impacts‐in‐the‐built‐environment