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CISD Yearbook of Global Studies CISD Yearbook of Global Studies Volume 5 May 2018 CISD Yearbook of Global Studies Volume 4 May 2018 Assessing the Achievability of the EU 2050 Energy Roadmap: the 112,000 tonne problem Charlie Crowther 2 The Nanking Massacre: The Hidden Holocaust Charlotte Lozano 33 The potential for solar photovoltaic on public buildings in London and the current barriers to deployment Elly Dinnadge 56 The ‘social conflict prevention’ discourse and contemporary governmentality in Latin America Motsabi Nicola Ntoane-Rooper 85 The “Sri Lanka Model” Myth: A Critical Analysis of Counterinsurgency Doctrine and Practice Jesse Roberts 114 Future Visions of Cultural Diplomacy in The Age of Globalization: Are Non-State Actors Poised to Lead the Field? Louisa Claire Boyle 147 A Symbiotic Relationship? The Syrian Arab Republic and the Caliphate Michael Carey 200 Keep your rosaries off my ovaries: Consociational democracy, religion and abortion in Northern Ireland Niamh Furey 235 Why are UN policies unable to stop sexual exploitation and abuse in peacekeeping missions? Vaishnavi Krishna Kumar 262 1 Assessing the Achievability of the EU 2050 Energy Roadmap: the 112,000 tonne problem Charlie Crowther Abstract: This paper explores the ability for the European Union to reach its 2050 decarbonisation target, with specific focus on wind turbine instalment and the rare earth element neodymium. Based on previous research investigating neodymium scarcity, the projected production and consumption rates of neodymium up to 2050 are explored. The yearly demand of neodymium for wind energy, telecommunications, electric vehicle and military sectors are then established. The results reveal demand will outstrip supply by over 10,000 tonnes a year. From the data presented, this paper concludes that with current consumption patterns of neodymium across these sectors, the EU will not be able to meet the target installed capacity for wind energy if all turbines include neodymium permanent magnets. These magnets offer significant efficiency benefits and without them the EU may be unable to generate the required amounts of energy to meet demand based on current installation targets. Policy recommendations are developed that aim to reduce demand for the rare earth element within the EU, with the aim of mitigating against potential scarcity. This paper encourages further research into the field of materials planning within the EU, with specific focus on its decarbonisation scheme. 2 Introduction Current trends of energy consumption are increasing. Coupled with predicted global population rise to 9.8 billion by 2050, demand for energy in 2050 is estimated to be 1.5 times that of current energy consumption (IEA, 2017, UN, 2017). Extensive new energy infrastructure development around the world is required to meet the expected growth in consumption. In light of increasing scientific evidence linking fossil fuel based economies to both climate and local environmental degradation, the majority of nations are beginning the transition towards sustainable, low carbon modes of energy generation (IPCC, 2007, Stern, 2007). Rare earth elements (REE) have facilitated significant advances in technological appliances and machinery. The demand for the complex materials that provide these advances has risen. These resources are finite however, and have very low rates of recycling, resulting in large quantities of critical materials ending up at landfill sites (Lieder and Rashid, 2016, Krook, et al., 2013). Material scarcity is an expanding field, originally focused on household technologies such as televisions and kitchen appliances, the field now encompasses large sectors of the economy (Nakamura and Sato, 2011, Wouters and Bol, 2009). As emissions reductions targets increase, material scarcity is now being investigated within the energy sector. As renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind become greater components within the global energy mix, the potential scarcity of the vital materials for these technologies as an issue is becoming more critical. Scarcity amongst these materials has already begun to be recorded, basic metals such as copper that provide energy technologies with the unique abilities to generate and transmit electrical energy have received initial warnings of scarcity in the clean energy field (Candelise, et al., 2011, Wadia, et al., 2009, Harmsen, et al., 2013). The European Union has embarked on an ambitious energy pathway to achieve an 80-95% reduction in overall greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In order to achieve such extreme emissions cuts, the EU is building a large base of renewable energy infrastructure to feed its domestic energy demands. In light of existing investigative literature in material scarcity within future energy scenarios, this paper provides an update of current technological demands for the rare earth element neodymium (Nd) and explores the achievability of the EU 2050 roadmap, with particular focus on the wind energy sector. With focus on the rare earth element neodymium, an analytical lens is applied through the comparison and contrast of projected supplies of neodymium against its growing demands across selected sectors. The sources of demand that will be explored are: wind energy, eclectic vehicle, smartphone and military sectors. A comprehensive analysis of varying demand projections reveals a viable threat to future supplies of neodymium falling short of projected demands. The minimum predicted neodymium demand per year across these sectors is calculated and reveals a supply deficit of over 10,000 tonnes of neodymium a year. The monopolistic nature of neodymium supply from China is also explored and identified as a severe threat to future supply availability. Current developments within the Chinese mining industry regarding government regulation and export quotas are identified as major inhibitors to future access of neodymium as well as triggers for previous and future prices hikes of the commodity. The implications on the decarbonisation pathway in the scenario developed within this paper are addressed. The main findings for the European decarbonisation effort is that with current consumption trends across sectors, the EU is unable to install neodymium permanent 3 magnets into every wind turbine within its decarbonisation plans. This results in higher costs of projects due to larger requirements of supporting materials due to the heavier weight of the structure. Lower rates of energy production of the turbines are also expected, lowering the EUs gross energy production. The paper then discusses contemporary attempts to reduce demand and the possibility of meeting sustainable rates of recycling of neodymium. The current state of internal European recycling rates is not however, at a level where significant demand can be reduced through reuse of existing materials. Substitution of the precious metal is possible within some technologies but requires significant backing from government agencies. Policy recommendations are developed to help reduce overall demand of the metal within the EU. The paper then concludes with strong advice of further research into potential material scarcity in the policy making field. Literature Review There is overwhelming scientific evidence that points to the impact of anthropogenic activities on the changing climate (IPCC, 2007). Consumption of fossil fuels that power our economy have resulted in a green-house effect that has induced an increase in average global temperatures (Hoel and Kverndokk, 1996). Progressive developments on the international stage have culminated in a target to limit global average temperature increase to within 2c of pre-industrial levels or 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (ppm) (UNFCCC, 2015). The climate agreement has identified the finite nature of fossil fuels as well as the need to transition away from the fuel source in order to reduce carbon emissions to remain within the 2c scenario (Ibid, Höök and Xu, 2013.). Exceeding 2c temperature increase results in drastic changes in climate systems, characterised by an increase in the number of extreme weather events experienced (Meehl, et al., 2000). These events will be a detriment to both food and water security across the globe (Rosenweig, et al., 2001). These insecurities are likely to exacerbate conflicts over resources, increasing numbers of climate refugees displaced as a result of climate events or conflict (Mirza, 2003, Barnett and Adger, 2007, Reuveny, 2007). To prevent irreversible climate change, nations must accelerate the rate at which they decarbonise their economies. Decarbonisation is the transition of the energy sector from fossil fuel based modes of energy production towards low carbon sustainable options (IEA, 2011, Mander, et al., 2008, Mercure, et al., 2014). Now more than ever, large scale decarbonisation is an economic possibility. Clean energy technologies such as wind and solar have reached a level of technological maturity where they can effectively replace fossil fuel alternatives and even undercut them in some cases. Solar installations within India have seen such an advancement that they now undercut coal power plants for a prices of electricity. At its record low, solar was undercutting coal by 0.57 rupees per kilo-watt hour (kWh) (Safi, 2017). Renewable energy technologies currently make up over 20% of global energy consumption and if the current installed clean energy mix was doubled by 2030, half of the required emissions reductions to meet the 450ppm
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