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The ICFAI University 2006-01 The ICFAI University 2006-01 Indian Oil Corporation Limited “We must learn to think strategically and can no longer remain complacent and must also think ahead, act swiftly and decisively.” – Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India in 2005 1 Manmohan Singh while speaking at the Petrotech 2005 conference held at New Delhi in January 2005, commented that the government was exploring the possibility of restructuring the oil PSUs to make them globally competitive. Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyyar said that competition and duplication in the oil sector has reached ‘destructive’ proportions. He observed that the public sector companies are busy competing among themselves in a market wherein private sector companies like Reliance and Essar are also operating. Analysts felt that radical changes in the petroleum sector in India were in the offing. Less than six months later in July 2005, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (IOC), India’s oil major, unveiled its restructuring plans. The company targeted a complete organizational revamp and looked at consolidating its business activities. IOC worked out plans to exit from four out of nine joint ventures. It also proposed to merge four subsidiaries – Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals (74.46 percent), Chennai Petroleum Corporation (51.88 percent), IBP (100 percent), and Indian Oil Blending (100 percent) – with itself. While the merger of IBP is through; other proposals are still to materialize (2005). Among the JVs, IOC proposed to retain Avi-Oil, IOTL, IPPL, LIPL, and PLL. Among these, Petronet LNG, is the largest having a turnover of Rs.19.45 billion. For the FY 2003-04, the subsidiaries and joint ventures contributed a total revenue of Rs.235.86 billion with total assets estimated at Rs.92.27 billion. Correspondingly, the share of IOC in the assets of JVs was put at Rs.2.03 billion. On India’s economic front, the macroeconomic indicators project robust economic growth. The international price levels for crude oil and natural gas are key factors that could affect economic growth. The GDP growth was impressive at 7.09% in 2005 though it was higher at 8.61% during 2004. The FII investment in the capital and debt markets was more than US$8,280 million during 2004-05, which was also higher at US$10,918 million during the earlier year. At the end of 2005, the country’s forex reserves stood at US$135,571 million compared to US$107,448 million in 2004. The inflation rates remained moderate and a spurt in industrial activity was seen during the year. CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY BACKGROUND There was increased volatility in international oil prices in the backdrop of Hurricane Rita in the US Gulf region during the year 2005. Prices were weak during the first half of September 2005. There was a recovery during the third week of September but the closing price was much lower than the prevailing price at the end of the previous month. In London, the price slipped to US$ 60.33 per barrel on September 16 from a prevailing level of US$ 66.94 per barrel at the beginning of the month. The impact of Hurricane Rita was felt in the next trading session, and the price increased by 5.8 percent to reach US$ 63.8 per barrel. After gradually receding, the prices ended at US$ 61.84 per barrel at the end of the month. This price level was 7.6 percent lower than the earlier month end’s price. The price in the Dubai market fell to US$ 54.69 per barrel on September 13 from US$ 59.67 per barrel on September 1. By the end of September, prices recovered and closed at US$ 57.06 per barrel. Information regarding petro-product prices during 2004-05 is given in Exhibit 1. 1 Petrotech 2005 Conference, January 2005. IOCL 2006-01 The world crude oil production increased during the month of August 2005. Ever since a substantial fall in June that year, the production rose by 4.3 lakh barrels per day to touch 84.85 million barrels per day (mbpd). The production of oil by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also registered an increase. The production increased by 100,000 barrels per day to touch an output at 34.49 mbpd, of which Saudi Arabia pumped 9.28 mbpd of oil. Iraq’s output increased to reach 1.91 mbpd from 1.8 mbpd in May 2005. Mexico, member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, registered an increase of 390,000 barrels per day and its monthly output was at 3.87 mbpd. Exhibit 1: International Petro-products Prices (USD/Tonne (CIF) ATF HSD Oil LSHS Motor Gasolene Naphtha LPG Saudi Average Change Average Change Average Change Premium Change Average Change Change Contract Saudi London (%) London (%) London (%) London (%) London (%) (%) Arabia Dec. 2004 430 37.52 467 61.67 135 7.41 361 24.52 383 26.27 423 35.14 Jan. 2005 439 34.18 444 49.54 151 12.87 403 22.33 391 18.85 369 15.38 Feb. 2005 464 46.26 453 61.01 164 26.12 438 32.09 415 34.41 369 11.88 Mar. 2005 548 71.79 540 69.90 196 41.26 464 28.67 477 46.08 422 59.17 Apr. 2005 573 64.66 546 64.65 225 53.67 520 32.65 470 41.05 417 42.54 May. 2005 522 36.67 501 38.68 221 36.32 480 4.41 421 12.76 422 32.14 Jun. 2005 573 58.35 560 64.54 227 49.78 529 33.99 437 24.60 395 13.38 Jul. 2005 588 48.24 566 51.37 240 51.70 583 31.00 466 25.04 400 22.26 Aug. 2005 634 44.02 603 45 .10 257 64.48 635 46.60 528 25.99 404 18.36 Sept. 2005 670 45.37 631 46.95 273 76.05 700 62.39 571 36.09 438 14.41 Oct. 2005 656 25.69 628 25.05 262 56.18 594 24.79 547 16.96 517 28.93 Nov. 2005 563 17.35 537 18.49 244 83.53 510 18.05 479 11.44 547 16.63 Dec. 2005 536 27.71 Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec 2004-05 424 61.11 401 56.31 154 9.85 433 47.23 396 56.16 367 36.16 2005-06 597 40.73 571 42.36 244 58.17 569 31.45 490 23.69 453 23.34 Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Apr- Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 2004-05 440 55.95 426 57.90 156 13.75 427 39.84 403 46.61 372 33.60 Source: Indian Industry: A Monthly Review. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. By contrast, the domestic production of crude oil in India plummeted to 2.4 million tonnes, a reduction of 16.1 percent for the year. The catastrophe at ONGC’s BHN platform 2 caused a decline of 21 percent in crude oil production during the month of August 2005. For the same month during the earlier year, the production was higher at 1.77 million tonnes of crude. Oil India (OIL), at 280,000 tonnes of production registered a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percent. Reckoned on year-on-year basis, the production of crude oil during the first half of 2005-06 at 13.59 million tonnes, showed a decline of 4.7 percent. In the Cambay basin block, Gas Authority of India Ltd., (GAIL), which is India’s major crude and gas carrier holds 50 percent participating interest. Following the commencement of commercial production, GAIL shifted its focus on crude marketing business. The production from this block is expected to go up from 350 barrels per day to 1,500 barrels a day after it becomes fully operational. The expected earnings of revenues would be Rs.180 million per year. This amount is expected to increase four-fold subsequently. The decline in domestic production also coincided with a fall in India’s crude imports. According to Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) the crude imports dropped by 6.7 percent to 31 million tonnes during April-July 2005. Imports worth Rs.485.90 billion (US$ 10,984 million), were however costlier by 29.7 percent compared to the earlier year. In this scenario of fall in crude output in September 2005, the Petroleum Ministry asked ONGC to bear the subsidy burden of Rs.28.30 billion. The subsidy burden for the company during the first half of FY 2005-06 stands to be Rs.57.06 billion as against a burden of Rs.41.04 billion for the 2 ONGC’s BHN platform is an offshore platform located about 160 kilometers off the Mumbai coast. Around 300 people work at this center which is involved in oil exploration. 2 IOCL 2006-01 entire year 2004-05. ONGC fears that growth in profits could be affected as a result of the dual impact of loss in production and higher subsidy outgo. Industry experts opine that this could also impact the financial performance of oil companies in India. PRICING ISSUES The government announced the issue of oil bonds to offset subsidy losses incurred by oil marketing companies. The government’s share of the total burden is expected to be around 36 percent, while oil companies would shoulder nearly 52 percent of the burden of under recoveries.
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