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Conflict and the Resolution Process in Zimbabwe from 2000 to 2013

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Conflict and the Resolution Process in Zimbabwe from 2000 to 2013 UNIVERSITY OF WITWATERSRAND Conflict and the Resolution Process in Zimbabwe from 2000 to 2013 By Anywhere Mutambudzi A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy March 2015 1 ABSTRACT Conflict and the Resolution Process in Zimbabwe from 2000 to 2013 The timing of conflict resolution efforts is important in identifying when an intervention is likely to succeed according to ripeness of conflicts theory (Zartman, 1985). Although the ripeness theory appears to be a great contribution to the conflict resolution doctrine, there is no scholarly consensus on its plausibility with criticisms that are centred on: a contest on the variables that should help in its identification; low predictability; lack of cross-case generalisations; and, methodological weaknesses inherited from rational and public choice theories. The study took the position that conditions creating ripeness should be expanded beyond what is currently obtaining in literature, can help in determining the formula for resolution and indicate what to do in the implementation of the agreement so reached. To interrogate the theory’s plausibility, interpretivism was used to gather evidence from the case - the conflict that prevailed in Zimbabwe from 2000 to 2013 - to extrapolate implications for the ripeness theory and suggest improvements through paradigm complementarity. Although the external dimension of the conflict in Zimbabwe remained unaffected, ripeness was found in its domestic setting deriving from the indecisive/disputed elections of 2008 and the threat of a failed economy that triggered a Southern African Development Community intervention and offered a cue to the formula for resolution - the Global Political Agreement. Shared political legitimacy in the Global Political Agreement however saw that ripeness diminishing and it had vanished by 2013, although the conflict which by 2013 was yet to realise complete resolution, was to a large extent transformed to lower levels of hostilities with dysfunctionality temporarily arrested. Ripeness proved to be a product of both perceptual and structural variables that change in intensity over time, thus affecting the implementation of agreements that arise from ripeness. The study proved that ripeness theory in its expanded form is a viable strategic tool in conflict resolution, though success as in military doctrine depends on the accurate identification of the variables creating ripeness, timely intervention and a fitting operational plan to effectively exploit the opportunities so created. ii DECLARATION I declare that this thesis is my own, unaided work. It is submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in the Republic of South Africa. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination in any other university . …………………………. Anywhere Mutambudzi 31 March, 2015 iii DEDICATION To my wife Hlengiwe and children: Rufaro Mavis, Takudzwa Nkosana and Thokozelwe Eve. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS An intellectual enterprise of this magnitude cannot be a success without assistance and encouragement from other people and institutions. I am indebted to the Government of Zimbabwe’s Presidential Scholarship for sponsoring my doctoral studies. I want to thank the University of Witwatersrand’s School of Governance for taking me on the doctoral programme and the initiation I received through the Social Theory Course. I am grateful for the assistance I received at every stage from the school’s staff including the PhD Convener, Dr Horacio Zandamela. In particular, I want to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor, mentor and friend, Professor Gavin Cawthra whose patience, tolerance, interventions, insights and guidance helped me to negotiate the challenges that I faced in doing the research. Special thanks goes to Simon Badza who in the early days when I was looking for a research topic said if you are interested in conflict resolution, why not interrogate the notion of ripeness of conflicts. I am indebted to all those that agreed to be interviewed as part of the data gathering process for the research whose names are listed at Appendix 2 to this study. I acknowledge the criticism I received at the academic conference jointly organized by the Global Foundation for African Development (GLAFAD) and the University of Witwatersrand held at the Pan- African Parliament in Pretoria in 2013 that helped me a lot to refine the project. I am most grateful to my boss at the Ministry of Information, Media and Broadcasting Services, George Charamba who authorized me to do the study and is part of the list that includes Professor Feltoe, Dr Heather Chingono, Dr Joseph Kurebwa, Phyllis Johnson and Dr Rino Zhuwarara who offered invaluable scholarly suggestions. I owe a lot to my colleagues at my workplace, including the Directorate of Urban Communications officers, who went out of their way to assist me in the research and for shouldering some of my work responsibilities that I dodged to concentrate on the project. I also apologise to those I may have failed to accord the attention they deserved as I withdrew into a cocoon. I thank many whom I cannot list by their names whose assistance and insights helped the study. Last but not least, I want to thank my mother, Ranganayi Chiwashira, my wife Hlengiwe, my children; Rufaro Mavis, Takudzwa Nkosana and Thokozelwe Eve who gave me encouragement and endured the long hours I absented myself from important family matters . v ACRONYMS ACCORD African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes ACDSS African Centre for Development and Strategic Studies ACP Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific AFP Agence France Presse AGO Anti-Governmental Organisation AIPPA Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act ANC African National Congress APSA African Peace and Security Architecture AU African Union AUEOM African Union Election Observer Mission BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BDF Botswana Defence Forces BSA Broadcasting Services Act CAZ Conservative Alliance of Zimbabwe CCR Centre for Conflict Resolution CDE Comrade CERTI Complex Emergency Response and Transition Initiative CFU Commercial Farmers’ Union CISG Commonwealth International Solidarity Group CNN Cable News Network COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa DERUDE Department of Rural Development DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EISA Electoral Institute of Sustainable Democracy in Africa ERC Elections Resource Centre ESAP Economic Structural Adjustment Programme EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FRELIMO Mozambique Liberation Front FT Financial Times FTLRP Fast Track Land Reform Programme vi G8 Group of 8 Countries GDP Gross Domestic Programme GLAFAD Global Foundation for African Development GNU Government of National Unit GoZ Government of Zimbabwe GPA Global Political Agreement HBP Health as a Bridge for Peace HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus ICC International Criminal Court IEC Independent Electoral Commission IMF International Monetary Fund IOL Independent Online IRI International Republican Institute ITU International Telecommunications Union JOC Joint Operations Command JUICE Jobs, Upliftment, Investment, Capital and the Environment KP Kimberly Process MDC Movement for Democratic Movement MDC-M Movement for Democratic Movement - Mutambara MDC-T Movement for Democratic Change – Tsvangirai MHS Mutual Hurting Stalemate NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCA National Constitutional Assembly NDC National Defence College NGO Non-Governmental Organisation OAU Organisation of African Unity OPDSC Organ for Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation PF Patriotic Front POSA Public Order and Security Act PSC Peace and Security Council RBZ Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe RENAMO Mozambique National Resistance SADC Southern African Development Community vii SADOCC Southern African Documentation and Co-operation Centre SEOM SADC Election Observer Mission SIPO Strategic Plan for the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation SSR Security Sector Reform UANC United African National Congress UDI Unilateral Declaration of Independence UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNISA University of South Africa UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States USA United States of America USAF United States Armed Forces USAID United States Agency for International Development USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics VOA Voice of America WW2 World War 2 ZANLA Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army ZANU Ndonga Zimbabwe African National Union Ndonga ZANU PF Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front ZANU Zimbabwe African National Union ZAPU Zimbabwe African People’s Union ZBC Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation ZCTU Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions ZESN Zimbabwe Election Support Network ZIDERA Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act ZIM ASSET Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation ZIM ONLINE Zimbabwe Online ZIMPREST Zimbabwe Programme for Economic and Social Transformation ZIMSTAT Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency ZIPRA Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................................... ii DECLARATION ................................................................................................................................
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