Western Migration to Israel

trends is essential if one wishe~ future developments. Althougt Jewish population and Israel is On the Differential Frequency of lems discussed and the hypothe to other small, selective migratil Western Migration to Israel Israel's (and formerly Palesti has typically been one of wave originating in a variety of count] Sergio DellaPergola ical and ideological determinant 2 (HEBREW UNIVERSITY) of alternative destinations. Tak ture of the Jewish Diaspora pc under which migration to Israe most migrating groups as belong migration or "free" migration c, / other have occurred over time 1 A common typological distinction in the study of migration con­ and geographical composition 01 trasts "mass" migration movements with smaller and more selective changes, the rate of Jewish imr 1 "free" migrations. The former are assumed to involve social groups in from certain regions--especiall~ their entirety, or large numbers of migrants reacting similarly to un­ and the Balkans-than from ot favorable conditions at their places of origin. The latter, by contrast, and Northern Europe, North ( involve relatively small, homogeneous and specialized groups, whose Oceania have exhibited compar. range of options and whose ability to adjust to factors affecting migra­ In these regions-referred h tion would appear to be somewhat greater. Although both types of the Jews have enjoyed during tt migration may occur quite close to each other in time, from the same and economic conditions, ha' places of origin to the same places of destination-thus making difficult framework of the local society a clear-cut distinction between them-they seem nevertheless to in­ mediate danger. In various pe volve different conceptual frameworks and to have different demo­ Jewish immigration from othe graphic, socio-economic and policy implications in the long run. quently, a sharp geographical p This paper focuses on some aspects of one of these relatively small Jewry: in 1975, 77 percent of die and selective migration flows: the movement from free-emigration but only 9 percent of Israeli res Western countries to Israel-a country which is not only open to free Immigrants from Western c. migration (aliyah) but actually strives to encourage it. Although this about 250,OOO-accounted for type of migration constitutes one of the major potential sources of 1948 and the end of 1980, thou~ Jewish population growth in Israel, comparatively little attention has of the total since the late 1960' been devoted in the past to clarifying its characteristics, determinants finds that soon after the war c and implications. Thorough investigation of these matters is of central immigration wave-the fourth ~ importance, especially in view of the recently renewed interest in esti­ tum in 1969. For the purpose oj mates and projections concerning the size of the Jewish population in two comparable eight-year peril Israel and in the Diaspora. Furthermore, in view ofthe assumption that ing a migration peak (1963 and socio-demographic policies might be initiated-including policies af­ tively). Western aliyah accc fecting migration-with the aim of influencing the future size, composi­ immigration for the first period. tion and dynamics of Israel's population, it appears that a detailed yearly rate of migration for tho understanding of the factors that generated past Jewish migration increased from about 7 per 10,0

292 Western Migration to Israel 293

trends is essential if one wishes to gain informed insights on possible future developments. Although the relationship between the world Jewish population and Israel is essentially unique, some of the prob­ _Frequency of lems discussed and the hypotheses suggested here, are also applicable to other small, selective migration movements. ~on to Israel Israel's (and formerly Palestine's) past experience with immigration has typically been one of wave-like fluctuations. Such aliyah waves, originating in a variety of countries, were influenced not only by polit­ ~ergola ical and ideological determinants, but also by the varying accessibility ERSITY) of alternative destinations. 2 Taking into consideration the social struc­ ture of the Jewish Diaspora populations and the material conditions under which migration to Israel took place, it is possible to identify most migrating groups as belonging predominantly either to the "mass" migration or "free" migration category-though shifts from one to the other have occurred over time for some groups. Although the volume 1 in the study of migration con­ and geographical composition ofaliyah waves have undergone periodic th smaller and more selective changes, the rate of Jewish immigration has been consistently higher lled to involve social groups in from certain regions--especially the Asian Middle East, North Africa rants reacting similarly to un­ and the Balkans-than from others. Jewish communities in Western Jrigin. The latter, by contrast, and Northern Europe, North and Latin America, South Africa and and specialized groups, whose Oceania have exhibited comparatively low emigration propensities. 3 Ijust to factors affecting migra­ In these regions-referred to hereafter as the Western countries­ ;later. Although both types of the Jews have enjoyed during the last century more favorable political i1 other in time, from the same and economic conditions, have been more integrated within the ;tination-thus making difficult framework of the local society, and have had fewer feelings of im­ -they seem nevertheless to in­ mediate danger. In various periods, Western countries have drawn . and to have different demo­ Jewish immigration from other countries, including Israel. Conse­ lications in the long run. quently, a sharp geographical polarization has developed within world of one of these relatively small Jewry: in 1975, 77 percent of diaspora Jews lived in Western countries, )Yement from free-emigration but only 9 percent of Israeli residents were of Western origin. which is not only open to free Immigrants from Western countries (as Jefined in Table l}-in all, to encourage it. Although this about 250,000-accounted for only 15 percent of all aliyah between he major potential sources of 1948 and the end of 1980, though they have constituted a higher share nparatively little attention has of the total since the late 1960's. Examining recent aliyah trends one s characteristics, determinants finds that soon after the war of June 1967 and its aftermath, a new n of these matters is of central immigration wave-the fourth since 1948--started, achieving momen­ cently renewed interest in esti­ tum in 1969. For the purpose of our discussion, we shall focus here on lze of the Jewish population in two comparable eight-year periods (1961-68 and 1969-76), each includ­ , in view of the assumption that ing a migration peak (1963 and 1972) and a low (1967 and 1976, respec­ litiated-including policies af­ tively). Western aliyah accounted for 13 percent of the total ncing the future size, composi­ immigration for the first period, and 39 percent during the second. The on, it appears that a detailed yearly rate of migration for the total aggregate of Western countries erated past Jewish migration increased from about 7 per 10,000 Jewish population in the countries of 294 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to 16rael origin in 1961-68, to 18 per 10,000 in 1969-76. These rates contrast with of immigrants as compared to a worldwide total aliyah rate of 36-37 per 10,000 Jews in the Diaspora munities who did not migrate, 0 during both periods. These figures also indicate that immigration from destinations. 4 The examination of non-Western countries could not respond as freely to the new political the specific conditions of the Je' and economic situation in Israel: aliyah rates from non-Western coun­ should also make reference to cel tries actually declined from 115 per 10,000 in 1961-68 to 95 per 10,000 from the general study of human in 1969-76, and were essentially affected by whether and when govern­ Analytic understanding of em ments allowed Jews to emigrate. raise obstacles to the free emigra Within the context of the lower-than-average frequency of migra­ larly active in encouraging it, req tion from the countries considered in Table 1 as a group, a remarkable monetary and non-monetary cosl range of variation can be observed. Aliyah was-with no exception­ with the decision to migrate.5 1 more frequent in 1969-76 than in 1961-68, ranging between less than 2 satisfaction among potential migl immigrants per 10,000 Jews (United States) and 59 per 10,000 (Uru­ set of relationships between po: guay) in the former period, and between 8 (United States) and 176 correctly or incorrectly perceive, (Chile) in the latter. Comparing the changes in the rates of migration tion. The following chart summ: over the two periods, we find a pattern of considerable similarity (as such factors on an individual's m indicated by a correlation coefficient of .72). Apparently, the dynamics of Western migration to Israel was in­ Type of factor Expected el fluenced over time by a highly consistent set of determinants, which affecting individual following pl dominated internal variation and overall levels of aliyah rates. These intensity differentials are of greatest importance in determining the At place of overall volume of aliyah. Thus, for example, the combined aliyah rate origin of all non-European, English-speaking areas (North America, South­ ern Africa, Oceania) was 2 per 10,000 Jews in 1961-68, and 10 per 10,000 in 1969-76, while the combined rates of all Western European Positive Hold countries were 17 and 43, respectively, and those of Latin America were 37 and 63 per 10,000. Should the 1969-76 aliyah rate of English­ Negative Push speaking countries have been similar to that of Western Europe, immi­ gration would have been larger by 170,000 persons, and should it have equalled that of Latin America, there would have been 270,000 more In other words, a distinctio immigrants. On the other hand, should the 1969-76 aliyah rate of all couraging, and factors acting as Western countries have been as low as that of the United States, there distinction, though certainly rele' would have been 65,000 fewer immigrants to Israel. What, then, stood quent migration (such as in the c behind these substantial differentials? taken into account in the literatur the pull-push factors, the hold-re tigated. Furthermore, as in other THE CAUSAL STRUCTURE OF WESTERN ALIYAH and demographic change, decisi, gration also depends on a numb, The study of aliyah must confront a number of central questions desirability and the feasibility 01 related to the changing volume of migration over time, its socio­ migration will actually occur onI demographic composition, and its absorption patterns in Israel. These desirability and feasibility will h questions cannot be answered without due consideration ofthe societal may shift over time. With regard and personal determinants of migration to Israel, and of the selectivity occurred in connection with evel Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to /6rael 295

169-76. These rates contrast with of immigrants as compared to members of the same Jewish com­ per 10,000 Jews in the Diaspora munities who did not migrate, or preferred to emigrate to alternative D indicate that immigration from destinations.' The examination of these topics should not only focus on :md as freely to the new political the specific conditions of the Jews in the Diaspora and in Israel, but _h rates from non-Western coun­ should also make reference to certain broader concepts, which emerge 1,000 in 1961-68 to 95 per 10,000 from the general study of human migrations. cd by whether and when govern- Analytic understanding of emigration from countries which neither raise obstacles to the free emigration of their citizens, nor are particu­ lan-average frequency of migra­ larly active in encouraging it, requires that research be focused on the [able 1as a group, a remarkable monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits presumably associated Jiyah was-with no exception­ with the decision to migrate. 5 Thus, the existing degree of relative -68, ranging between less than 2 satisfaction among potential migrants must be defined, together with a 3tates) and 59 per 10,000 (Uru­ set of relationships between positive and negative factors-whether "een 8 (United States) and 176 correctly or incorrectly perceived-in the places of origin and destina­ banges in the rates of migration tion. The following chart summarizes the various possible effects of rn of considerable similarity (as such factors on an individual's migration status. 6 f.72). lern migration to Israel was in­ Type of factor Expected effect on individual's migration status tent set of determinants, which affecting individual following perception of factor operating: -all levels of aliyah rates. These importance in determining the At place of At place of destination :imple, the combined aliyah rate origin ~ areas (North America, South­ I() Jews in 1961-68, and 10 per i rates of all Western European Positive Hold Pull _y, and those of Latin America 1969-76 aliyah rate of English­ Negative Push Repel ) that of Western Europe, immi­ ,000 persons, and should it have would have been 270,000 more In other words, a distinction is suggested between factors en­ d the 1969-76 aliyah rate of all couraging, and factors acting as a disincentive to, migration. Such a that of the United States, there distinction, though certainly relevant in the analysis of relatively infre­ mts to Israel. What, then, stood quent migration (such as in the case of Western aliyah), is not always taken into account in the literature: while standard reference is made to the pull-push factors, the hold-repel forces have been less often inves­ tigated. Furthermore, as in other voluntary processes involving social )F WESTERN ALlYAU and demographic change, decision-making connected to potential mi­ gration also depends on a number of intervening factors affecting the a number of central questions desirability and the feasibility of migration.? It can be expected that nigration over time, its socio­ migration will actually occur only after given thresholds of migration lrption patterns in Israel. These desirability and feasibility will have been attained. 8 Such thresholds :iue consideration of the societal may shift over time. With regard to Western aliyah, changes probably I to Israel, and of the selectivity occurred in connection with events such as the June 1967 war, which 296 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel opened a new chapter in the relationship between the Jewish people framework. A more complete e: and Israel, and as a consequence of which the salience of Israel as an entials should consider three IT ideal place of domicile considerably increased in the perception of range of challenges and oppor Diaspora Jewries. It can be assumed that among persons who already (a) the different general politica possessed some latent migration propensity, events of this sort can countries from which migratiOi have a decisive effect on the actual decision to migrate. graphic, socio-economic and id~ In the specific case of Israel, conventional wisdom holds that immi­ communities in each country; (. gration, particularly from Western countries, has responded essentially characteristics of Israeli society_ to ideological factors. 9 Aliyah thus seems to constitute a particular case One of the basic characterist of a more general situation in which geographical mobility, prima facie, here is that it can be expected to is not exclusively or even essentially determined by economic factors, narrow "space awareness. "12 Thf but rather results from the existence of certain religious, political or well-defined set of goals among I cultural values and norms. Such migrations at times seem to contradict and the benefits expected to be the rules of conventional rational economic behavior, especially when not be achieved in indifferent de they involve the move from a more to a less developed country, thus relation to a certain "ideal place brirrging about for the migrants the loss of some material benefits. usually constitute one of many Other scholars have focused on a broader range of determinants, by potential migrants; the typica namely the periodic changes in the economic absorption potential of em countries is non-migration... Israeli society, and changes in the migration policies of Israeli govern­ tion of South Africa (1974) ~ ments, over time. 1O Indeed, the volume of aliyah has been found to households were considering en correlate strongly and positively with the main economic indicators in definitely decided to leave). Isra the receiving country. However, the relationship between migration try of destination by 80 percent c and economic cycles is rather complex, and may not coincide with a and by 74 percent of those mOl one-way causation. In fact, it can be reasonably assumed that eco­ study of Italian Jews in Israel (I nomic conditions in Israel not only stimulated but often responded to of migrants had considered a the changing volume of aliyah. It seems that after the 1967 Six Day Italy. 14 Israel's dominant posi War, changes in Israel, such as a rapidly expanding economy, growing awareness of Western Jews i5' differentiation for the labor market, and an improving technical infra­ ideological determinants for mig: structure for immigrant absorption combined in attracting a larger reason given by Italians in Isra volume of immigration." Potential Jewish immigrants from Western question) was "the desire to liv countries may have been especially affected by such changes. There least frequent was "economic were, however, other factors at work that should not be ignored, such findings appear in studies of NoI as an increasing salience of Jewish identity among Jews in the Dias­ Israelis abroad, either consideri pora. Moreover, the early 1970's witnessed serious political crises in ing. 16 various Western countries, including the violent overthrow of a num­ The data available on Wesl ber of regimes. Economic difficulties were partly due to the conse­ survey of immigrant absorption quences for the West of the sharp increase in the price of energy and the analyses (based on the s sources that was connected, at least indirectly, with the Arab-Israeli groups (such as North American war of October 1973. percentage of "religious" or "Z Beyond these impressionistic notions, we shall not be able to assess existing among the Jewish POPI the actual presence and relative weight of the various above mentioned origin. 17 The desirability of mig factors in determining the peculiar characteristics of Western aliyah feasibility of such a move, are I unless an attempt is made to organize them into a more systematic Jewish populations depending Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 297

:ship between the Jewish people framework. A more complete explanation of aliyah trends and differ­ Jhich the salience of Israel as an entials should consider three main sets of factors which generate a increased in the perception of range of challenges and opportunities for Jews considering aliyah: :hat among persons who already (a) the different general political and socio-economic contexts of the pensity, events of this sort can countries from which migration originates; (b) the different demo­ cision to migrate. graphic, socio-economic and ideological characteristics of the Jewish ~ntional wisdom holds that immi­ communities in each country; (c) the socio-economic and ideological ntries, has responded essentially characteristics of Israeli society. ms to constitute a particular case One of the basic characteristics of the type of migration considered ographical mobility, prima/acie, here is that it can be expected to be associated with a very peculiar and letermined by economic factors, narrow "space awareness. "12 The choice of destination clearly implies a of certain religious, political or well-defined set of goals among migrants. At least some of these goals, lions at times seem to contradict and the benefits expected to be associated with their attainment, can­ lomic behavior, especially when not be achieved in indifferent destinations, and can only be pursued in t a less developed country, thus relation to a certain "ideal place." Migration to Israel, in fact, does not :s of some material benefits. usually constitute one of many alternatives being equally considered broader range of determinants, by potential migrants; the typical alternative to aliyah for Jews in West­ ::onomic absorption potential of ern countries is non-migration. A sample survey of the Jewish popula­ ration policies of Israeli govern­ tion of South Mrica (1974) shows that 22 percent of heads of ne of aliyah has been found to households were considering emigration (though only 1.3 percent had the main economic indicators in definitely decided to leave). Israel was indicated as the preferred coun­ relationship between migration try ofdestination by 80 percent of all those who considered emigration, x, and may not coincide with a and by 74 percent of those more committed. 13 Similarly, in a sample reasonably assumed that eco­ study of Italian Jews in Israel (1975) it was found that only 16 percent mulated but often responded to of migrants had considered alternative destinations when leaving ms that after the 1967 Six Day Italy. 14 Israel's dominant position in the migration-related space Iy expanding economy, growing awareness of Western Jews is confirmed by the predominance of Id an improving technical infra­ ideological determinants for migration. For example, the most frequent ombined in attracting a larger reason given by Italians in Israel for migration (to a multiple-answer "'ish immigrants from Western question) was "the desire to live in a Jewish state" (76 percent). The Iected by such changes. There least frequent was "economic reasons" (11 percent). Quite similar bat should not be ignored, such findings appear in studies of North American migrants to Israe1'5 and of ~ntity among Jews in the Dias­ Israelis abroad, either considering a return to Israel or actually return­ essed serious political crises in ing. 16 he violent overthrow of a num­ The data available on Western immigrants from the longitudinal were partly due to the conse­ survey of immigrant absorption currently being carried out in Israel, lcrease in the price of energy and the analyses (based on the same source) of selected Western origin ldirectly, with the Arab-Israeli groups (such as North Americans or Latin Americans) point to a higher percentage of "religious" or "Zionist" immigrants than that currently IS, we shall not be able to assess existing among the Jewish populations of the respective countries of of the various above mentioned origin. I7 The desirability of migration to Israel, and perhaps also the uacteristics of Western aliyah feasibility of such a move, are perceived quite selectively in diaspora : them into a more systematic Jewish populations depending on demographic, socio-economic and 298 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel ideological factors. Jews migrating to Israel do not constitute a repre­ and members of other groups, I. sentative cross-section of the population in their communities of origin; tural and structural similarity, a and as a group they are structured differently from groups of Jews quencies of marital and identifie­ migrating to alternative destinations. 18 turn, is presumedly associated ~ When considering the Western Jewish diaspora cross-nationally, ticularistic values and norms, in however, it should also be ascertained whether the same rules that of residence. On the other hand, govern migration selectivity within countries also operate between groups, including Jewish minoriti countries. Investigating individual as against aggregate social behavior to achieve their preferred collect: requires somewhat different approaches and assumptions, although more a community is able to ~ both analytic levels are ultimately interrelated. We mainly focus, here, tions-such as, for example, an i: on aggregative generalizations, assuming that exposure to similar envi­ higher the likelihood that its n ronments tends to introduce a common basis into the possible range of norms and values, including, in individual responses. emigration to Israel. Even within the general situation of freedom and affluence that The absolute size of a comm, characterizes Western Jewish communities, variations in economic de­ general population of the commu velopment and political freedom may be expected to be significantly indication of the influence and vi related to the degree of complexity in the occupational structure and in general power that it holds, and the socio-political institutions of the countries considered. These gen­ local community life as an altel eral aspects of a country's social structure, in turn, may affect the would lead to aliyah. The wei. likelihood that occupational and social opportunities exist that are reflects a complex interplay of more or less congenial to the particular structural characteristics of graphic forces. 22 Keeping in min. Jewish populations, with their diffuse and higher-than-average educa­ may assume that the greater c tional attainment, their nearly total urbanization, and their concentra­ stronger is its potential for holdin tion in a number of occupational branches in industry, trade and attracting new Jewish migrants. services. 19 Some very preliminary research actually suggests that Jew­ Turning now to the pull and r ish populations in the Diaspora may be strongly attracted by places destination, the availability of Ie offering a combination of high average income, occupational patible with the potential migrant~ diversification, modern technology and well-developed cultural ser­ the overall migration volume. 24 It vices. 20 Where such greater opportunities are available, it can be ex­ as well as occupational absorpti. pected that stronger societal hold will be experienced among members this pull-repel complex. Howevel of the group: feelings of satisfaction with the present situation are migration, further attention shou: likely to reduce the desire to migrate. level of place idealization among On a shorter term perspective, rapid changes in existing economic in the cultural-ideological enviro­ and political conditions-such as high rates of inflation or frequent affect migration fluctuations over manifestations of political violence, including violence against the When the focus is-as in our· group in question-may disrupt the framework on which previous different groups of pull-repel fact. evaluations of place satisfaction were based. Such society push may generalization level stands the de clearly be expected to increase the perceived need to migrate. tination. An intriguing question From the internal perspective of the Diaspora Jewish communities, only one image towards various 0 a situation of relative societal openness-which we assume as more that local differences exist in th. characteristic of Western than of other countries-may engender two age-in terms of its security probl contrasting processes. On the one hand, freedom and equality may be ation-which tend to affect positively associated with the intensity of interaction between Jews communities in the Diaspora. Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 299

.rael do not constitute a repre­ and members of other groups, leading to an increasing degree of cul­ -in their communities of origin; tural and structural similarity, and in the longer run to increasing fre­ 2 :ferently from groups of Jews quencies of marital and identificational assimilation. ! Assimilation, in turn, is presumedly associated with a decrease in the salience of par­ ...ish diaspora cross-nationally, ticularistic values and norms, including those concerning ideal places I whether the same rules that of residence. On the other hand, freedom may stimulate socio-cultural .untries also operate between groups, including Jewish minorities, to organize themselves voluntarily ainst aggregate social behavior to achieve their preferred collective goals. It may be expected that the ~s and assumptions, although more a community is able to strengthen its self-supportive institu­ elated. We mainly focus, here, tions-such as, for example, an independent educational network-the g that exposure to similar envi­ higher the likelihood that its members will internalize the group's basis into the possible range of norms and values, including, in the case of the Jews, those related to emigration to Israel. )f freedom and affluence that The absolute size of a community, or its percentage relative to the :ies, variations in economic de­ general population of the community, may provide a further important 'e expected to be significantly indication of the influence and visibility of local Jewry, of the share of e occupational structure and in general power that it holds, and of its ability to offer opportunities for lntries considered. These gen­ local community life as an alternative to the ideological forces that ;;ture, in turn, may affect the would lead to aliyah. The weight of Diaspora Jewish populations 1 opportunities exist that are reflects a complex interplay of political, socio-economic and demo­ Ir structural characteristics of graphic forces. 22 Keeping in mind gravity theories of migration/3 one nd higher-than-average educa­ may assume that the greater or denser a Jewish community, the mization, and their concentra­ stronger is its potential for holding the existing population, and also for nches in industry, trade and attracting new Jewish migrants. rch actually suggests that Jew­ Turning now to the pull and repel factors related to the country of ~ strongly attracted by places destination, the availability of levels of socio-economic reward com­ erage income, occupational patible with the potential migrants' expectations can significantly affect [ well-developed cultural ser­ the overall migration volume. 24 In the case of Israel, physical security es are available, it can be ex­ as well as occupational absorption may be important components in : experienced among members this pull-repel complex. However, in the case of ideologically oriented vith the present situation are migration, further attention should be devoted to factors affecting the level of place idealization among residents of the place itself. Changes changes in existing economic in the cultural-ideological environment of the absorbing society may rates of inflation or frequent affect migration fluctuations over time. lcluding violence against the When the focus is-as in our case--on migration differentials, two amework on which previous different groups of pull-repel factors should be discussed. At a greater lased. Such society push may generalization level stands the degree of appeal of the country of des­ :ived need to migrate. tination. An intriguing question is whether Israel's society projects Diaspora Jewish communities, only one image towards various other outside societies. It seems likely l-which we assume as more that local differences exist in the media presentation of Israel's im­ countries-may engender two age-in terms of its security problems, political regime, economic situ­ freedom and equality may be ation-which tend to affect the attitude of different Jewish of interaction between Jews communities in the Diaspora. 300 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel [ The differential impact of the receiving country on migration is prob­ Table 1. Yearly Rates of Migrat ably easier to measure in terms of the absorption feedback of former per 10,000 Jewish Popt: immigrants from each country of origin. The experience of earlier im­ Country migrants can substantially affect the decision-making processes of World, total those contemplating migration from the same country. 25 Perception from the outside of the degree of satisfaction prevailing among mem­ Western countries, total Other countries, total bers of an origin group currently living in the country of destination seems likely to influence others in the country of origin. It can be United Kingdom, Ireland Scandinavia assumed that differences will emerge in the degree of adaptation of Netherlands various immigrant groups, due to their different occupational and cul­ Belgium, Luxembourg tural backgrounds. Absorption is a time-related process,26 and conse­ France quently, the length of stay in the country appears to be a reasonable Switzerland indicator of the degree of satisfaction among members of an immigrant Germany Austria group. Important components of the absorption process are the degree Italy of efficiency and goodwill displayed by the absorptive system. Al­ Yugoslavia though the latter is supposed to treat all new immigrants equally, re­ Greece gardless of origin, some groups may be more favored than others. In United States the case of Israel, a high degree of communication exists with Western Canada Mexico countries through family and other links, including rapidly expanding Argentina streams of tourism in both directions. Return migration, which is part Brazil of a larger stream of emigration from Israel, and which indicates that Uruguay persons of the same origin group-presumably with similar back­ Chile grounds and characteristics-had to face difficulties that prevented Rest of Latin America South Africa, Rhodesia their permanent settlement, seems most likely to deter further migra­ Australia, New Zealand tion. Sources: Immigrants, potential immigrants, II Finally, one should consider a set of factors related to financial or Statistics. other costs of migration. Distance can (other things being equal) be Jewish population size in the countries of orig considered a broad attrition factor in the propensity to migrate, be­ sion of Jewish Demography and Statistics. Ins. cause of transportation costs, and possibly also because of cultural, Jerusalem. See also Table 2. climatic and other environmental differences involved. In the context of migrations which, like aliyah, are subsidized by the governments of indication of the ability of our the countries of destination, however, migration costs should not be entials in aliyah rates, and to ass expected to playa very significant role in reducing the perceived feasi­ in such an explanation. bility of migration. Unfortunately, the quality al able are uneven. Relatively cop general demographic and ec DEFINITIONS, DATA AND METHOD societies. Fewer comparable inc their internal socio-political an. Having outlined the essential components of a conceptual minorities the world over are far framework for the analysis of variation in the rates of aliyah from withstanding the recent expansi( Western countries, we should try to check its validity empirically. To in the case of a few variables is do so we should translate each of the general concepts now defined into Western world-that is, for eacl an appropriate quantitative variable. Comparing the values of each listed in Table 1. Data on chara variable for each of the countries investigated here should provide an grant groups in Israel are avail Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 301

:lg country on migration is prob­ Table I. Yearly Rates of Migration to Israel from Western Countries absorption feedback of former per 10,000 Jewish Population, 1961-68 and 1969-76 1. The experience of earlier im­ Country 1961-1968 1%9--1976 decision-making processes of World, total 37 36 he same country. 25 Perception taction prevailing among mem­ Western countries, total 7 18 g in the country of destination Other countries, total 115 95 e country of origin. It can be United Kingdom, Ireland IO 27 in the degree of adaptation of Scandinavia 23 68 different occupational and cul­ Netherlands 31 61 Belgium, Luxembourg 23 48 Ie-related process,z· and conse­ France 24 50 -fry appears to be a reasonable Switzerland 31 62 mong members of an immigrant Germany 38 55 sorption process are the degree Austria 33 59 by the absorptive system. AI­ Italy 31 58 Yugoslavia 14 23 ill new immigrants equally, re­ Greece 41 92 e more favored than others. In United States 1 8 :nunication exists with Western Canada 4 17 .s, including rapidly expanding Mexico 14 43 ~eturn migration, which is part Argentina 42 64 Brazil 25 39 srael, and which indicates that Uruguay 59 97 resumably with similar back­ Chile 41 176 ace difficulties that prevented Rest of Latin America 31 47 it likely to deter further migra­ South Mrica, Rhodesia 22 49 Australia, New Zealand 11 43 f factors related to financial or Sources: Immigrants, potential immigrants, and tourists settling in Israel: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. (other things being equal) be Jewish population size in the countries of origin: censuses, surveys, and population estimates. Divi­ the propensity to migrate, be­ sion of Jewish Demography and Statistics, Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The Hebrew University, sibly also because of cultural, Jerusalem. See also Table 2. ences involved. In the context lsidized by the governments of indication of the ability of our model to explain the observed differ­ migration costs should not be entials in aliyah rates, and to assess the relative weight ofeach variable n reducing the perceived feasi­ in such an explanation. Unfortunately, the quality and quantity of the relevant data avail­ able are uneven. Relatively copious and accurate data exist as to the general demographic and economic characteristics of Western ~DMETHOD societies. Fewer comparable indicators are available to throw light on their internal socio-political and cultural dynamics. Data on Jewish lmponents of a conceptual minorities the world over are far less numerous and standardized, not­ !l in the rates of aliyah from withstanding the recent expansion of Jewish population studies.27 Only :ck its validity empirically. To in the case of a few variables is there complete coverage for the entire eral concepts now defined into Western world-that is, for each of the twenty-one geographical units 'omparing the values of each listed in Table 1. Data on characteristics of particular Western immi­ igated here should provide an grant groups in Israel are available from a special processing of the 302 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel [ 1961 Israeli census. Fewer data are available so far with the desired Interrelationships among in detail from the more recent-and for our purposes more interesting­ Table 4. The data points to a pan 1972 census. In certain cases, therefore, data operationalization will the correlations between factor~ correspond only partially, Or indirectly, to the needs of our model. push, and Jewish community st= Such data constraints suggest that a first exploratory analysis of ergy consumption and press free differential rates of Western migration to Israel (the dependent vari­ hold factors, are strongly and p able) be confined to a rather simplified version of the conceptual coefficients also appear within framework discussed above. The model tested consists often indepen­ price increase and domestic vic dent variables, divided into five categories of up to three variables relationship between general ho­ each: (a) general societal hold: energy consumption per capita (an tive. With regard to the variabl indicator of industrial and technological development); press freedom communities in the Diaspora, a (an indicator of a country's political emancipation); (b) general societal frequency of assimilation, on th push: consumer price increase; domestic violence (measured by indi­ population and the frequency of cators such as the number of deaths in internal political events); population weight, in tum, is (c) Jewish community structure: the weight of the Jewish in the total societal hold factors. population; the degree of Jewish assimilation; frequency of Jewish Turning now to the variables education; (d) immigrant feedback: the length of stay in Israel; return strongly negative relationship a: migration; (e) migration costs: the distance of each country from Is­ Israel and the frequency of retur= rael. A synopsis of the variables used in the statistical analysis of given diaspora on Jewish migran migration rates from Western countries to Israel is given in Table 2. 28 population weight is negatively The multiple regression analysis discussed in the next section aims Israel among former immigrants to test the strength and direction of relationships between Western correlated with the frequency ( migration rates to Israel and each independent variable, or category of origin group. All these relationsl variables. Since it may be argued that the quality of the data and their potheses and the results of previ. correspondence to the theoretical specifications of the model are better These findings do not indicat· suited for measuring societal hold and push than other factors, an between variables; but only the additional line of investigation will consider how much of the observed robustness of such relations. T: migration differentials can be explained solely by these factors. Conse­ emerging in Table 4 suggest th: quently, in this analytic perspective the interest of other variables, above as independent are in fact including those related to Israel, is somewhat secondary. calls for additional caution in as In order to test OUr hypotheses empirically, we present in the next determining differential rates of l section a brief description of the characteristics of the independent eral, the interpretation offinding~ variables, followed by a separate examination of the relationship of the ground when it focuses on the dependent variable to each independent variable, and by an overall than on single variables. assessment of validity of the model and of its cOl}lponents. Analytic relationships betwel pendent variable are shown in Ta over time of the sign of relatiOn! RESULTS eight standardized regression cc same direction in both periods ex Means and standard deviations of each of the variables studied are were in disagreement for four v~ reported in Table 3. The main changes over time refer to increases in six in the latter. The relationship the aliyah rate, energy consumption, assimilation and prices. Jewish independent variables therefore population weight and the length of stay in Israel were relatively stable. what it appears to be. (Correlati (Other variables could not be compared over time.) ship between a given independe Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 303

"ailable so far with the desired Interrelationships among independent variables are reported in lur purposes more interesting­ Table 4. The data points to a pattern of overall consistency over time in re, data operationalization will the correlations between factors relating to general societal hold and , to the needs of our model. push, and Jewish community structure in the countries of origin. En­ a first exploratory analysis of ergy consumption and press freedom, both of which represent societal I to Israel (the dependent vari­ hold factors, are strongly and positively correlated. High correlation jed version of the conceptual coefficients also appear within the societal push category between :1 tested consists of ten indepen­ price increase and domestic violence in the countries of origin. The sories of up to three variables relationship between general hold and push factors is generally nega­ sy consumption per capita (an tive. With regard to the variables related to the structure of Jewish :11 development); press freedom communities in the Diaspora, a clear negative link exists between the ancipation); (b) general societal frequency of assimilation, on the one hand, and the weight of Jewish tic violence (measured by indi­ population and the frequency of Jewish education on the other. Jewish s in internal political events); population weight, in tum, is directly correlated with the general -eight of the Jewish in the total societal hold factors. imilation; frequency of Jewish Turning now to the variables related to the country ofdestination, a ~ length of stay in Israel; return strongly negative relationship appears between the length of stay in tance of each country from Is­ Israel and the frequency of return migration. The attractive power of a :d in the statistical analysis of given diaspora on Jewish migrants is indicated by the fact that Jewish ;; to Israel is given in Table 2. 28 population weight is negatively correlated with the length of stay in icussed in the next section aims Israel among former immigrants from that country, and is positively relationships between Western correlated with the frequency of return migration among the same Jendent variable, or category of origin group. All these relationships confirm previously discussed hy­ lhe quality of the data and their potheses and the results of previous research. fications of the model are better These findings do not indicate the direction of causal relationships ld push than other factors, an between variables; but only the sign (positive or negative) and the 5ider how much of the observed robustness of such relations. The very high correlation coefficients I solely by these factors. Conse­ emerging in Table 4 suggest that some of the variables we defined :he interest of other variables, above as independent are in fact dependent on further variables. This lewhat secondary. calls for additional caution in assessing the role of single variables in ;>irically, we present in the next determining differential rates of Western migration to Israel, as in gen­ racteristics of the independent eral, the interpretation of findings from multivariate analysis is on safer ination of the relationship of the ground when it focuses on the larger categories of variables, rather ~nt variable, and by an overall than on single variables. I of its components. Analytic relationships between independent variables and the de­ pendent variable are shown in Table 5. Looking first at the consistency over time of the sign of relationships, six correlation coefficients and 'S eight standardized regression coefficients, out of ten, pointed in the same direction in both periods examined. The two measures, however, :ach of the variables studied are were in disagreement for four variables in the former period, and for i over time refer to increases in six in the latter. The relationship of the dependent variable to several assimilation and prices. Jewish independent variables therefore may be intrinsically different from I in Israel were relatively stable. what it appears to be. (Correlation coefficients describe the relation­ j over time.) ship between a given independent variable and (in our case) aliyah

'I, ) Table 2. Variables Used in Multiple Regression Analysis of Migration Rates from Western Countries to Israel, 1961-68 and 1969-76

Years Considered First Second Variable name Description Period Period Source Dependent variable Migration rate Yearly rate of migration to Israel (incl. new immigrants, potential immigrants, and tourists settling) per 10,000 Jewish population in the countries of origin 1961-68 1969-76 a,b Independent variables A. General societal hold Energy consumption Energy consumption pro capite (equivalent of coal kgs.) 1965 1972 c Press freedom Index of press freedom, ratings given by judges-experts (range 0-4) 1965 1965 d B. General societal push Price increase Logarithm of percentage increase in consumer price index 1961-66 1969-74 c Domestic violence Logarithm of number of deaths from domestic violence I963--{j7 d Index (range 0-100) based on detailed chronologies of events such as: deaths from domes­ tic violence, violent overthrows of governments, interventions of armed forces in internal affairs 1969-76 e C. Jewish community structure Jewish population weight Jews per 1,000 population of country 1961 1972 b,c

Assimilation Percent of non-Jews among immigrants to Israel from country: this indicator displays a correlation coefficient of .8 with percent mixed marriages (for the countries with available data on the latter subject) 1948-68 Jewish education Percent Jewish children aged 6-17 receiving any kind of Jewish education 1969-76 a 1960 1967 f D. Immigrants absorptionjeedback Length of stay Median length of stay (years) among persons born in given country and living in Israel 1961 1972 g Return migration Percent "missing" among persons born in given country when comparing 1961 and 1972 Israeli censuses, after taking into account new immigrants and estimates of mortality 1961-72 1961-72 g E. Migration cost Distance Distance of given country from Israel (measured in conventional units of 25 kms.) Sources:

(a) Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Immigralion 10 Israel 1948--1972, Part I and II, Special Series, Nos. 416 and 489; Immigration 10 Israel. yearly publication; and unpublished data provided thrQuKh the COllrfr.SV of Ih" r"nlrR) RnrPRn nf .<:t~t;.';~. _ A. venerm sUClelUl f1UIU c Energy consumption Energy consumption pro capite (equivalent of coal kgs.) 1%5 1972 1965 1965 d Press freedom Index of press freedom, ratings given by judges-experts (range 0-4) B. General societal push 1961--66 1969-74 c Price increase Logarithm of percentage increase in consumer price index 1963--{i7 d Domestic violence Logarithm of number of deaths from domestic violence Index (range 0-1(0) based on detailed chronologies of events such as: deaths from domes­ tic violence, violent overthrows of governments, interventions of armed forces in internal affairs 1969-76 e C. Jewish community structure Jewish population weight Jews per 1,000 population of country 1961 1972 b,c

Assimilation Percent of non-Jews among immigrants to Israel from country: this indicator displays a correlation coefficient of .8 with percent mixed marriages (for the countries with available data on the latter subject) 1948--68 1969-76 a Jewish education Percent Jewish children aged ~17 receiving any kind of Jewish education 1960 1967 f D. Immigrants absorption feedback Length of stay Median length of stay (years) among persons born in given country and living in Israel 1961 1972 g Return migration Percent "missing" among persons born in given country when comparing 1%1 and 1972 Israeli censuses, after taking into account new immigrants and estimates of mortality 1961-72 1961-72 g E. Migration cost Distance Distance of given country from Israel (measured in conventional units of 25 kms.) Sources: (a) Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Immigration to Israel 1948-1972. Part I and II, Special Series, Nos. 416 and 489; Immigration to Israel. yearly publication; and unpublished data provided through the courtesy of the Central Bureau of Statistics. (b) Figures ofJewish population size in individual countries according to censuses, surveys, population estimates, Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics, The Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem. (c) United Nations, Statistical Office, Statistical Yearbook. (d) Taylor, C. L., and M. C. Hudson, World Handbook ofPolitical and Social Indicators. Second Edition. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1972. (e) Stebbins, R. P., and A. Amoia. The World This Year. Supplement to the Political Handbook andAtlas ofthe World. New York: Simon and Schuster for Council on Foreign Relations, 1971, 1972, 1973; Banks, A. S., editor, Political Handbook ofthe World. Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, Center for Social Analysis of the State University of New York at Binghamton. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975, 1976-7,1978. (f) Engelman, U. Z. Jewish Education in the Diaspora: Preliminary Report. Jerusalem: World Conference of Jewish Organizations, 1962; Duskin, A. editor, Jewish Education in the Diaspora. Jerusalem: The World Zionist Organization, 1971. (g) Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Population and Housing Census, 1961. Vol. 22; Census of Population and Housing. 1972, Vol. 10; and unpublished data provided through the courtesy of the Central Bureau of Statistics. 306 Sergio DellaPergola ( Table 3. Means and Standard Deviations of Variables,a 1961-68 and 1969-76

1961-1968 1%9-1976 Standard Standard Variables Mean deviation Mean deviation Migration rate 25.98b 14.12 56.43b 34.88 Energy consumption 3,080.43 2,324.62 4,023.19 3,027.39 Press freedom 2.03 0.81 2.03 0.81 Price increase 3.56 1.29 4.36 1.31 Domestic violencec 1.86 2.04 43.10 29.39 Jewish population weight 5.64 6.66 6.07 7.18 Assimilation 0.57 0.79 4.82 4.79 Jewish education 41.91 20.91 40.42 18.33 Length of stay 11.00 5.54 12.96 10.42 Return migration 260.58 213.13 260.58 213.13 Distance 330.00 204.76 330.00 204.76

(a) N = 21. Measurement units for each variable are specified in Table 2. (b) Unweighted means. Weighted means in Table I were 6.8 and 18.1, respectively. (c) Data are not strictly comparable for the two periods oftime. See Table 2 for further explanations. rates, while incorporating the indirect effects on migration of additional variables. Standardized regression coefficients reflect the "net" effect of a single independent variable on aliyah rates, after controlling for the effects of the other variables.) Two examples of a "hidden" positive relationship between an independent variable and aliyah rates-despite the negative "apparent" relationship indicated by correlation coefficients-are offered by press freedom and Jewish education. Taken by themselves, these two factors (proxies for societal liberalism and Jewish identity, respectively) tend toward a positive impact on aliyah rates. Economic hold, represented in the model by energy consumption in the countries of origin, shows up as the strongest single explanatory factor of variation in Western aliyah rates in 1961-68, while economic push-as indicated by inflation in the countries of origin-was the strongest factor in 1969-76. An alternative variable partially tested, and then rejected in the course of this study-the ratio of Israeli price increase to price increase in the country of origin-resulted in a sub­ stantially weaker correlate of both migration to, and return migration from, Israel than inflation rates in the countries of origin alone. Standardized regression coefficients for other independent vari­ ables mostly behaved according to expectations. After controlling for all other variables, positive effects on migration to Israel were exerted by price increase, Jewish education, domestic violence and press free­ dom in the countries of origin, and by the length of stay in Israel of Sergio DellaPergola 00 c~ -Io Cd ~ ~ U 'iii is )ns of Variables,a 1961-68 and c -t; E.g ..cCd _"Cd... ~~ ~~ '" IU bIl 1969-1976 ~ ~'s \0 ~ l'-­ tandard Standard J. § oeviation Mean deviation ..c: >, ~~ ~~ ~ 'E -00_Cd § r--O\ § bIl I:: en 14.12 56.43b 34.88 . v: ~ . "'''''"': t-: -- ~ ~'Cl - I I - I I !,324.62 4,023.19 3,027.39 ] 0.81 2.03 0.81 c ..c: 0 1.29 4.36 1.31 en .­ 00 ""00 ",-r-­ is '~ ~ or-- 00 § 2.04 43.10 29.39 8 ~ ~ . '"~~~ "" \0 IU . - - -- g -I 6.66 6.07 7.18 0\ .£1 ..... 1l 0.79 4.82 4.79 --~ c '"r/) 20,91 40.42 18.33 § .,!., c u '" u v OO---&> t'"""It'"""IOOl"""-­ 5.54 12.96 10.42 E .5.9 § \Ooo~t- § \OtfiV1­ ~ o • t"-!~ ~ ~ "~v: ~ ": 213.13 260.58 213.13 u ~~ -I ..c: - 1 1 204.76 330.00 204.76 'g en .~ > ., I:: ;pecified in Table 2, ...... D oo.D i=: .g :c: \CI~OiXlOO'" '" O\Or-~V100 ~re 6.8 and 18.1, respectively. v Cd 00 § O\":1"v)\O~ ONtfiNO­ '3 .., .~~~~~ ~~~v;v:~ , of time. See Table 2 for further explanations. -g o.~ v - 1 1 - I 1 c. 8. ~ffects on migration of additional v -g .g ~ N--.::t","'1'"f""')'" u '" tfi \OOOM 'V \0 efficients reflect the "net" effect 00 c '" § QO("fiO'\V)NO\ § O-.;T\Or--­ 'ah rates, after controlling for the -i=: ~ .C""!r'!-;~V:~ .-:~~~~~ v IE-5 1 I I ~xamples v ~ 8';; of a "hidden" positive ~ -; ariable and aliyah rates-despite .j! ] ., u.o .0 U .D g ., 00 s;::r--ONOoo-O ga-.. \0 l"""---NO\­ hip indicated by correlation i=: o Cd o rn J: t ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~ reedom and Jewish education. .~ .5 1 I 1 I 1 1 I rs (proxies for societal liberalism ] Id toward a positive impact on en E oo '"r---.o '"00 0\ 00-.0 0\ '"""-..".""..".,,,,-.oO\ .0 o .,,,,00 0 § Nr---("")o\NV)f'f'I­ § O\r---r-I./')OOOtfi­ U ... OJ .~~~~~-~~ "~~~~~~~~ 1-0 '" Q., OJ I 1 I 1 I model by energy consumption in V o et: "8 ::r: the strongest single explanatory o -; c - 0 .~ ~'& u,c () .D o .0 ,J:l 0 ates in 1961-68, while economic 2 x~r-r'l--oanoo-\r) S;::)! > ~.~ ~§ .- OJ C ~~ countries of origin alone. c C ~c. 0 0 C C V> _ 0- '" ~ .- 0 0 0\ '" C ,- 0 0 Its for other independent vari­ ~~~ ~~ '~>.'.a ~ae4)~~ "~>"~ ~~ ''''''~o- Cd Cd Cd ~.S! ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ § ~ d en 0 '3 C ~~ pectations. After controlling for .g '> a g ~ so ~ ~ .~ rr.J 0\ 0 4) e u 0 ',c "'l:1 .­ §"3 e 8".g -6 c: migration to Israel were exerted J::! ~u~u'''::~!34)oEaJ ...... ueu·.;::Q..~tUOeU - -~ -5 ~ ~ ~ .5 ~ -5 's ~ oS E g ~ ~ .5 :; ~ "s ~ E g ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ S'~'r;;"s: =~.s N""""II .~.~ omestic violence and press free­ 'C 00 E's ';j'S E .s Vj s cd c ~'C 0 i) r.f.l ~ Q) tU.~ c: ~"C O;j rI) ~ tU Q).~ ...l~O ...l~O zCi5Ci5 y the length of stay in Israel of > .aQ.,Q.,O ..... o( ..... wQ.,Q.,O ..... O( ..... • .0 0 308 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel (

Table 5. Zero-order Correlation Coefficients and Standardized omission; (c) all five categorie~ Multiple Regression (Beta) Coefficients between Migration Rates from a The general explanatory powe Western Countries to Israel and Independent Variables for degrees of freedom, about tions are statistically explaine 1961-1968 1969-1976 amined here. The same value Correlation Beta Correlation Beta 71.6 percent respectively) was Variables coefficients coefficients coefficients coefficients which the model was tested, al Energy consumption - .665c - .804c - .482b .063 balance amongst the variables Press freedom -.089 .255 - .148 .340 of countries examined and the Price increase .5OOc .398 .789c .998c Domestic violence - .180 .022 .528c .168 cate the need for caution in int Jewish population weight - .231 .359 -.300 - .314 our model. Assimilation -.205 - .332b .041 - .042 On the whole, referring 1: Jewish education -.201 .138 - .124 .131 societal factors of hold and II Length of stay .141 .164 .047 .015 produce much stronger effects; Return migration - .531 c -.264 .340 -.047 Distance -.093 -.326 .100 -.293 to Jewish community structun: The last column of Table 6 st aN = 21 b Significant at .05 level abIes: energy consumption an C Significant at .01 level cent of the explained variance i societal push alone (two varie former immigrants. Negative effects on aliyah resulted from assimila­ lence) accounted for 52 percer tion,. return migration and distance. On the other hand, standardized with societal hold contributing­ regression coefficients for energy consumption and Jewish population ond column in Table 6 show weight, as they relate to aliyah rates, displayed a certain instability. variables is omitted, very HttL (Such intriguing findings suggest that the reality of the situation is far lost, because of the high corre more complex than can be encapsulated in this type of schematic and Jewish variables. A remar model.) With the important exception of assimilation in 1961-68, none data: when omitting societal pt: of these other variables, however, exerted statistically significant ef­ half of its capacity to explain fects on aliyah rates. Israel. Alternative analyses, not presented here, did show that demo­ graphic factors such as the age structure of diaspora Jewish popula­ tions may assist in explaining variation in Western aliyah rates. DISCUSSION Migration rates were weakly positive in correlation with the popula­ tion's percentage of aged persons, and weakly negative in correlation The main thrust of this st with the percentage of younger adults. Such variables were excluded migration one has to assess n from the final analysis in order to retain a number of countries for migrant selectivity-which in which such data were not available. strong ideological bias-but al!" In order to ascertain the relative importance of each main category tion from different countries. of variables in determining the variations in Western aliyah rates, three pora have very different pc different multiple regression procedures were run (see Table 6): immigrants to Israel depends 0 (a) each category was inserted alone to see how much of the variance it the variable propensities to em could explain on its own; (b) each category was removed, one at a During the period studied b time, while all the others were retained in the model, in order to see total volume of Western aliya how large a change in the variance explained would result from that 1969-76 were about three time: Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 309

efficients and Standardized omission; (c) all five categories were retained in a stepwise regression. between Migration Rates from a The general explanatory power of the model is high: after adjustment Independent Variables for degrees of freedom, about 72 percent of Western aliyah rate varia­ tions are statistically explained by the ten independent variables ex­ 1969--1976 amined here. The same value of determination coefficient (71.5 and Beta Correlation Beta 71.6 percent respectively) was obtained for the two periods of time for fficients coefficients coefficients which the model was tested, although this involved a different internal .804c - .482b .063 balance amongst the variables. However, the relatively small number .255 - .148 .340 of countries examined and the relatively high number of variables indi­ .398 .789c .998c .022 .528c .168 cate the need for caution in interpreting the high explanatory power of .359 -.300 - .314 our model. - .332b .041 - .042 On the whole, referring back to our earlier discussion, general .138 -.124 .131 societal factors of hold and push in the countries of origin seem to .164 .047 .015 produce much stronger effects on aliyah rates than the factors related - .264 .340 -.047 - .326 .100 - .293 to Jewish community structure and to immigrant absorption feedback. The last column of Table 6 shows that societal hold alone (two vari­ ables: energy consumption and press freedom) accounted for 68 per­ cent ofthe explained variance in Western aliyah rates in 1961--68; while societal push alone (two variables: price increase and domestic vio­ n aliyah resulted from assimila­ lence) accounted for 52 percent of the explained variance in 1969-76, 'n the other hand, standardized with societal hold contributing a further 31 percent. However the sec­ umption and Jewish population ond column in Table 6 shows that, usually, when one category of displayed a certain instability. variables is omitted, very little of the model's explanatory power is _he reality of the situation is far lost, because of the high correlation existing between general societal lted in this type of schematic and Jewish variables. A remarkable exception appears in the 1969-76 ;)f assimilation in 1961--68, none data: when omitting societal push variables, the model loses more than ~rted statistically significant ef­ half of its capacity to explain variation in Western migration rates to Israel. ~d here, did show that demo­ ure of diaspora Jewish popula­ lion in Western aliyah rates. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS in correlation with the popula­ I weakly negative in correlation The main thrust of this study is that to understand free Jewish . Such variables were excluded migration one has to assess not only the determinants of individual tain a number of countries for migrant selectivity-which in the case of aliyah is known to have a strong ideological bias-but also the causes of fluctuation in the migra­ portance of each main category tion from different countries. Since Jewish communities in the Dias­ 1S in Western aliyah rates, three pora have very different population sizes, the total number of Ires were run (see Table 6): immigrants to Israel depends on the combination of these weights with see how much of the variance it the variable propensities to emigrate from each country. Ltegory was removed, one at a During the period studied here, significant changes occurred in the :d in the model, in order to see total volume of Western aliyah. On the average, migration rates in lplained would result from that 1969-76 were about three times higher than in 1961--68. Such a change 310 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel ( Table 6. Contribution of Each Category of Independent Variables in hold and push factors in the cc Explaining Variation in Migration Rates from Western Countries to explanation for the observed Israel, 1961-68 and 1969-76 migration was highly associat relatively lower levels of eco: Change in R' political emancipation; and sh Category All- Percent economic and political instabil Category removed, all inclusive of in the Jewish communities of ( inserted other categories stepwise explained a of absorption in Israel of earli Category of independent variables alone retained regression variance had a relatively minor impac 1961-1968 Distance from Israel had aver General societal hold .585 .107 .585 68 The different balance of I Jewish community structure .258 .112 .081 9 General societal push .290 .043 .047 6 examined here suggests that e Immigrants absorption feedback .322 .067 .121 14 may substantially affect Wes. Migration cost .009 .022 .024 3 otherwise be depressed by h• Total R' .858 100 although Jews in Western COl R' adjusted for degrees of freedom .715 such unfavorable societal circ' F 6.035b or in Moslem countries. In ( Regression standard error 7.53 support the popular assumpt 1969-1976 aliyah. Moreover, the fact that: General societal hold .266 .053 .266 31 operating in the countries of 0 Jewish community structure .129 .042 .103 12 aspects of migration propensil General societal push .622 .514 .450 52 deed, one possible conclusion i Immigrants absorption feedback .169 .001 .018 2 general societal conditions in Migration cost .010 .020 .021 3 t' ing in Israel do not appear to P' Total R' .858 100 these findings are confirmed by R' adjusted for degrees of freedom .716 suggest that the geographi. F 6.057b Regression standard error 18.57 volume..:.-of Western migratior: factors lying beyond the conI 'Categories were hierarchically inserted in the equation, in the same order in which they are listed in this table. state of Israel or in the Diaspo: b Significant at .01 level These facts notwithstandin rushing to the conclusion that has generally been explained by the renewed interest for Diaspora induced by a substantial dete: Jews of the state of Israel, and by the economic growth in Israel in the ment of the Jewish communit: wake ofthe June 1967 war. However, due weight must also be given to tween the frequency of Jewi the fact that during the early 1970's many countries-including a num­ frequency of assimilation, and ber of Western countries-)Vere facing serious economic and political the best interest of Israel to en· problems. content and character of the : The variation in rates of aliyah from Western, free-emigration coun­ successful, could lead to a rise tries was studied in this paper through a multiple regression technique. tors conducive to migration m; Selected hypotheses were explored over two consecutive periods of rectJy, that an environment time, and a statistical interpretation was found for most of the observed advantageous to aliyah, other t differentials. However, significant statistical relationships emerged for The question of the genera very few of the single correlates of the aliyah rates. General societal society was examined here onl: Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 311

~ of Independent Variables in hold and push factors in the countries of origin contributed most of the :s from Western Countries to explanation for the observed migration differentials. More frequent 11969-76 migration was highly associated with both long term factors, such as relatively lower levels of economic development, modernization and Change in R' political emancipation; and short term factors, such as higher levels of Category AII­ Percent economic and political instability. Structural-mainly cultural-factors oemoved, all inclusive of in the Jewish communities of origin, and factors relating to the process ler categories stepwise explained of absorption in Israel of earlier immigrants from the same countries, a retained regression variance had a relatively minor impact on the frequency of Western aliyah. 1961-1968 Distance from Israel had a very minor effect. .107 .585 68 The different balance of explanatory factors in the two periods .112 .081 9 .043 .047 6 examined here suggests that elements of economic and political stress .067 .121 14 may substantially affect Western migration to Israel-which would .022 .024 3 otherwise be depressed by hold factors in the countries of origin­ .858 100 although Jews in Western countries are less likely to be exposed to .715 such unfavorable societal circumstances than Jews in Eastern Europe 6.035 b or in Moslem countries. In other words, the findings of this study 7.53 support the popular assumption that full "fleshpots" do deter free aliyah. Moreover, the fact that research focusing essentially on factors 1969-1976 .053 .266 31 operating in the countries of origin succeeds in illuminating important .042 .103 . 12 aspects of migration propensities has its own policy implications. In­ .514 .450 52 deed, one possible conclusion is that Western aliyah is so responsive to .001 .018 2 general societal conditions in the countries of origin that factors operat­ .020 .021 3 ing in Israel do not appear to playa very significant role. Provided that .858 100 these findings are confirmed by further, more systematic research, they .716 suggest that the geographical composition-and implicitly, the 6.057b 18.57 volume-of Western migration to Israel may be largely determined by factors lying beyond the control of the Jewish polity-either in the in the same order in which they are listed in state of Israel or in the Diaspora Jewish communities. These facts notwithstanding, there seems to be no justification for rushing to the conclusion that more aliyah from the West will only be ~enewed interest for Diaspora induced by a substantial deterioration in the socio-political environ­ ;::onomic growth in Israel in the ment of the Jewish communities there. The intrinsic relationship be­ ue weight must also be given to tween the frequency of Jewish education in the Diaspora, or the ny countries-including a num­ frequency of assimilation, and aliyah rates suggests that it would be in serious economic and political the best interest of Israel to encourage efforts to strengthen the Jewish content and character of the Diaspora communities. Such efforts, if Western, free-emigration coun­ successful, could lead to a rise in aliyah, provided that additional fac­ L multiple regression technique. tors conducive to migration materialize. It also appears, perhaps indi­ 'er two consecutive periods of rectly, that an environment of societal freedom and openness is ,found for most of the observed advantageous to aliyah, other things being equal. stical relationships emerged for The question of the general effects on aliyah of changes in Israeli ~ aliyah rates. General societal society was examined here only very marginally. It can be legitimately 312 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel ( argued that such factors do influence the total volume of aliyah, and fulfilling complementary econ perhaps its geographical composition as well. But, as has already been not be satisfied in one place pointed out, an examination of the factors acting chiefly outside Israel (olim) and especially potentia provided a self-contained interpretation of Western aliyah rate differ­ intended to reside in Israel OJ entials. poses of study, perhaps-befe A broader issue for discussion is how to interpret aliyah, and more Again, other people keep a h. generally, free ideological migration, in the framework of allegedly pay frequent visits to the COlli homogenizing global modernization processes, which, according to migrate. To the extent that ob~ some theories, lead irrevocably from particularistic to universalistic ment, its analysis too can onl} attitudes and behavior. 29 Migration that enhances the particularism of On the other hand, the a an ethno-religious group may seem anachronistic in the framework of a justifiable when considering tI broad conception of the modernization process. Our exploratory countries and their absorption analysis indicates that such a contradiction is more apparent than real. plex social processes, which It is true that most migrants to Israel would not move unless ideological systematic research. It would factors were at work. Ideology, however, is in most cases a necessary of expected or potential aliya but not sufficient factor for migration. Aliyah is thus quite congruent based on feelings of hope or fe: with the experience of general migration movements in which socio­ sive theoretical frameworks a: economic variables act as prominent determinants. statistical inference may help i Our findings suggest, more generally, that free migration, though the volume of aliyah in curren. largely inspired by "the relation of man to his higher aspirations ,"JO may to countries which permit free more often occur under the influence of factors similar to those which would tend to generate other, quantitatively larger, types of migration. Free migration tends to draw from relatively small, selected and at times even elitist social strata. This upward selectivity with regard to the internal stratification of each country of origin contrasts with a downward selectivity with regard to each country's socio-economic and political status, free migration gaining momentum in those coun­ Research for this paper was part Research Associate at the Populat tries which offer less attractive prospects. of Sociology, Brown Universityi In summarizing the results of this research, its preliminary and Studies, the Hebrew University c exploratory nature should be unequivocally stressed. The data upon Group on Demography ofthe Jew~ which we have relied have many limitations, which should ideally be In the course of this research, I removed in further attempts of this kind; furthermore, time coverage criticisms of Professors Barbara Goldstein, Fran Kobrin, Rober should be considerably extended, and an effort should be made to tie Alan S. Zuckerman. Responsibilit the explanatory variables more directly to periodic changes in the over­ own. all frequency of Western aliyah. Repeated verifications of our experi­ 1. W. Petersen, "A General 'I ment are necessary before it can be ascertained with some certainty ical Review XXIII (1958) 256--66; that consistent determinant patterns affect the variation of aliyah rates, ity Transition," Geographical Re~ 2. L. Hersch, "International ~ and make them partially predictable. tion II (1931) W. F. Willcox (ed.) 4 A further warning relates to certain recent trends which have some Immigrants (London, 1954); M. bearing on the very concept of migration. Nowadays one may observe (Jerusalem, 1957) 2 vols.; Jacob L~ an increasing spread of bi-Iocal (or higher order) residential patterns in The Jews: Their History, Cull among Jews (and non-Jews) in Western countries-and to some extent (New York, 1960) 3rd edition, Vol Encyclopedia Judaica Vol. 16: 1 also among Israelis living in the West. Such circular movements aim at Israel (Jerusalem, 1977). Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 313

he total volume of aliyah, and fulfilling complementary economic and non-economic needs that can­ well. But, as has already been not be satisfied in one place only. Quite a few Western immigrants 3 JrS acting chiefly outside Israel (olim) and especially potential immigrants \ (oUm bekhoa~) may have I of Western aliyah rate differ­ intended to reside in Israel only for limited periods of time-for pur­ poses of study, perhaps-before returning to their countries of origin. oN to interpret aliyah, and more Again, other people keep a home in Israel, and make great efforts to _n the framework of allegedly pay frequent visits to the country but nevertheless never formally im­ -ocesses, which, according to migrate. To the extent that observed migration lacks a lifetime commit­ particularistic to universalistic ment, its analysis too can only lead to provisional conclusions. - enhances the particularism of On the other hand, the approach presented in this paper seems :hronistic in the framework of a justifiable when considering that the migration of Jews from Western oOn process. Our exploratory countries and their absorption into Israeli society are extremely com­ -ion is more apparent than real. plex social processes, which need to be dealt with on the basis of uld not move unless ideological systematic research. It would appear, by contrast, that the prediction ~r, is in most cases a necessary of expected or potential aliyah has relied more often on evaluations Aliyah is thus quite congruent based on feelings of hope or fear. Clearly, combined use of comprehen­ )n movements in which socio­ sive theoretical frameworks and of more sophisticated instruments of terminants. statistical inference may help in attempts to monitor and also to predict ly, that free migration, though the volume of aliyah in current and future years, especially with regard :0 his higher aspirations, "30 may to countries which permit free emigration. : factors similar to those which vely larger, types of migration. latively small, selected and at ward selectivity with regard to ltry of origin contrasts with a Notes ·ach country's socio-economic ling momentum in those coun­ Research for this paper was partially undertaken during my stay as Visiting Research Associate at the Population Studies and Training Center, Department ts. of Sociology, Brown University in 1978/79; and at the Institute for Advanced research, its preliminary and Studies, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, in the framework of the Study )cally stressed. The data upon Group on Demography of the Jews directed by Prof. Roberto Bachi, in 1980/81. ltions, which should ideally be In the course of this research, I greatly benefited from the comments and ld; furthermore, time coverage criticisms of Professors Barbara A. Anderson, Calvin Goldscheider, Sidney Goldstein, Fran Kobrin, Robert M. Marsh, Dietrich Rueschemeyer and in effort should be made to tie Alan S. Zuckerman. Responsibility for contents of the paper is, of course, my to periodic changes in the over­ own. ted verifications of our experi­ 1. W. Petersen, "A General Typology of Migration," American Sociolog­ .certained with some certainty ical Review XXIII (1958) 256-66; W. Zelinsky, "The Hypothesis of the Mobil­ ity Transition," Geographical Review LXI (1971) 219-49. ~ct the variation of aliyah rates, 2. L. Hersch, "International Migration of the Jews," International Migra­ tion II (1931) W. F. Willcox (ed.) 471-520; S. N. Eisenstadt, The Absorption of recent trends which have some Immigrants (London, 1954); M. Sicron, Immigration to Israel 1948-1953 n. Nowadays one may observe (Jerusalem, 1957) 2 vols.; Jacob Lestschinsky, "Jewish Migrations 1840-1956," ;her order) residential patterns in The Jews: Their History, Culture and Religion, Louis Finkelstein (ed.), countries-and to some extent (New York, 1960) 3rd edition, Vol. II, 1536-96; U. O. Schmelz, "Migrations," Encyclopedia Judaica Vol. 16: 1518-29; Roberto Bachi, The Population of :uch circular movements aim at Israel (Jerusalem, 1977). 314 Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel

3. Bachi, Population ofIsrael. Seminar on Demographic Researc 4. Sergio DellaPergola, "Aliyah and Other Jewish Migrations: Toward an (held in Buenos Aires), G. Tapinos Integrated Perspective," in Studies in the Population ofIsrael, U. O. Schmelz 25. C. Price, "Chain Migration and G. Natan (eds.), Scripta Hierosolymitana XXIX (Jerusalem). ence to Australian Jewry," Jewish. 5. J. Wolpert, "Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate," Papers of 26. J. Goldlust and A. H. Riehl the Regional Science Association XV (1965) 159-69. Adaptation," International Migrati 6. See also the general discussion of migration theories in: E. Lee, "A 27. U. O. Schmelz, Paul Gliksc Theory of Migration," Demography III (1966) 47-57; Calvin Goldscheider, Demography, 1972-1980 (Jerusaler: Population, Modernization and Social Structure (Boston, 1971). 28. Further details on the char; 7. R. Dixon, "Explaining Cross-cultural Variations in Age at Marriage and in this study are reported in the 0­ Proportion Never Marrying," Population Studies XXV (1971) 215-33. "Western Migration to Israel: Som~ 8. A. Speare, Jr., S. Goldstein and W. H. Frey, Residential Mobility, Mi­ brew University, Institute of Contf gration and Metropolitan Change (Cambridge, Mass., 1975). 29. S. P. Huntington, "The 9. United Nations, "International Migration Trends, 1950-1970," The velopment and Politics," Compara Population Debate. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and 30. Petersen, "A General Typo Political Affairs, 1975. Vol. I, pp. 237-48. 31. "Potential immigrants" as I 10. D. Friedlander and Calvin Goldscheider, The Population of Israel government offices and denotes a (New York, 1979). Return to an immigrant visa or ar 11. B. Thomas, Migration and Urban Development (London, 1972). stay in Israel for more than three n 12. See Speare, et ai, Residential Mobility . .. 13. S. DellaPergola, South African Jewish Population Study, Advance Re­ port No.2: Emigration (Jerusalem, 1977). It would appear that the proportion of migrants to Israel who actually left South Africa during the late 1970's was substantially lower than the prospective percentages reported here. 14. Sergio DellaPergola and A. Tagloacozzo, Gli Italiani in Israele (Roma, 1978). 15. G. Engel, "North American Jewish Settlers in Israel," American Jew­ ish Year Book LXXI (1970) 161-87; A. Antonovski and D. Katz, From the Golden Land to the Promised Land (Jerusalem, 1979). 16. D. Elizur, "Attitudes and Intentions of Israelis Residing in the U.S. Towards Returning to Israel," International Migration XI (1973) 3-14; N. To­ ren, "Return to Zion: Characteristics and Motivations of Returning Emi­ grants," Social Forces LIV (1976) 546-58. 17. Calvin Goldscheider, "American Aliyah: Sociological and Demo­ graphic Perspectives," in The Jew In American Society, Marshall Sklare (ed.), (New York, 1974) pp. 335-84; M. Sicron, "Immigration to Israel from Latin America," Papers in Jewish Demography 1973, U. O. Schmelz, et al (eds.), (Jerusalem: 1977) pp. 347-54. 18. Sergio DellaPergola, "Aliyah and Other Jewish Migrations ... ;" E. Leshem, Y. Rosenbaum and O. Kahanov, The "Drop-Out" Phenomenon Among Soviet Jews: Main Findings and Recommendations (Jerusalem, 1979). 19. Simon Kuznets, "Economic Structure and Life of the Jews," in Fink­ elstein, The Jews, II, pp. 1597-1666. 20. Sergio DellaPergola, "Toward a Typology of Jewish Population Distri­ bution in European Towns," paper presented at the Seminar on Urban Ecology of the Jews, Hebrew University, Institute for Advanced Studies, 1981. 21. Milton M. Gordon, Assimilation In American Life (New York, 1964). 22. Roberto Bachi, Population Trends ofWorld Jewry (Jerusalem, 1976). 23. G. K. Zipf, "The PtPzlD Hypothesis: On Intercity Movement of Per­ sons," American Sociological Review XI (1946) 677-86. 24. R. T. Appleyard, "Economic and Non-economic Factors in the Dy­ namics of International Migration," International Migration, Proceedings ofa Sergio DellaPergola Western Migration to Israel 315

Seminar on Demographic Research in Relations to International Migration er Jewish Migrations: Toward an (held in Buenos Aires), G. Tapinos, ed. (Paris, 1974) pp. 95-101. fJulation ofIsrael, U. O. Schmelz 25. C. Price, "Chain Migration and Immigrant Groups With Special Refer­ a XXIX (Jerusalem). ence to Australian Jewry," Jewish Journal ofSociology VI (1964) 157-71. ;: Decision to Migrate," Papers of 26. J. Goldlust and A. H. Richmond, "A Multivariate Model of Immigrant 159--69. Adaptation," International Migration Review VIII (1974) 193-225. jgration theories in: E. Lee, "A 27. U. O. Schmelz, Paul Glikson, and S. J. Gould (eds.), Studies in Jewish "66) 47-57; Calvin Goldscheider, Demography, 1972-1980 (Jerusalem, 1983). !ure (Boston, 1971). 28. Further details on the characteristics and limitations of data employed IVariations in Age at Marriage and in this study are reported in the original and extended version of this paper, rdies XXV (1971) 215-33. "Western Migration to Israel: Some Explanatory Hypotheses," Jerusalem, He­ l. Frey, Residential Mobility, Mi· brew University, Institute of Contemporary Jewry. ;e, Mass., 1975). 29. S. P. Huntington, "The Change to Change: Modernization, De­ -ation Trends, 1950--1970," The velopment and Politics," Comparative Politics III (1971) 283-322. •ns, Department of Economic and 30. Petersen, "A General Typology of Migration." 31. "Potential immigrants" as used here follows the terminology of Israel .eider, The Population of Israel government offices and denotes a person who is entitled under the Law of Return to an immigrant visa or an immigrant certificate, and who intends to ·velopment (London, 1972). stay in Israel for more than three months. "y . .. Jt Population Study, Advance Re­ would appear that the proportion Mrica during the late 1970's was -entages reported here. zzo, Gli Italiani in Israele (Roma, tettlers in Israel," American Jew­ :onovski and D. Katz, From the :m,1979). of Israelis Residing in the U.S. Migration XI (1973) 3-14; N. To­ Motivations of Returning Emi­ lliyah: Sociological and Demo­ an Society, Marshall Sklare (ed.), Immigration to Israel from Latin "J73, U. O. Schmelz, et al (eds.), lther Jewish Migrations ... ;" v, The "Drop-Out" Phenomenon ommendations (Jerusalem, 1979). e and Life of the Jews," in Fink­

>Iogy of Jewish Population Distri­ at the Seminar on Urban Ecology . Advanced Studies, 1981. merican Life (New York, 1964). 'World Jewry (Jerusalem, 1976). : On Intercity Movement of Per­ ~6) 677-86. on-economic Factors in the Dy­ onal Migration, Proceedings ofa