rkmenista Tu n n U a z t b s e CAMP4ASB i k k

i i

j

s

t

Climate Adaptation&Mitigation a

a

T

n

Program for Aral Sea Basin

n

K

a

t

a

s

z

z

CENTRAL ASIA a

y

k

g h

r

s y t K a

n Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia

A Survey of Selected River Basins Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia: A Survey of Selected River Basins

© 2019, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made.

Acknowledgement: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) sponsored by the Inter- national Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank has provided support for the process of developing methods, approaches, and tools for decision-making support and knowledge products on climate change in Central Asia.

Disclaimers: The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments.

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.

This report is based on the research by the group of national experts: Alia Nurbatsina (Kazakhstan), Alexander Pak (Uzbekistan), and Vokhid Hamidov (Tajikistan) using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) for long-term and short-to-medium term river flow forecasts.

Scientific supervision of the national experts on hydrology modelling and SWIM application: Anastasia Lobanova and Iulii Didovets, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Management of the CAMP4ASB project in the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia: Iskandar Abdullaev (Executive Director), Irina Bekmirzaeva (Program Manager)

Contributors: Atabek Umirbekov and Zhanna Babagalieva

Edited and produced by Zoï Environment Network, Geneva

Cartography: Matt Beilstein Layout: Carolyne Daniel Climate Change and Hydrology in Central Asia

A Survey of Selected River Basins

Introduction

Selected river basins

RUSSIA

Bukthyrma River

Esil River

KAZAKHSTAN

Zeravshan UZBEKISTAN River KYRGYZSTAN CHINA TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN Kofarnihon River Murghab River

10 Esil and Zhabai Representative of Central Asia’s flatland climate and hydrology systems, these rivers orig- inate in the vast northern grasslands of Kazakhstan. Their average flow is modest, but spring floods can be significant and water flow can vary from year to year.

14 Bukhtarma A powerful mountain river with sources in the Altai Mountains with whitewater rapids fed by glaciers and snow, the Bukhtarma’s scenic environment makes it a popular tourist des- tination.

16 Zeravshan With origins in glaciers in the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Tajikistan, the Zeravshan carries its waters to the ancient and densely populated areas of Samarkand and Bukhara, Uzbeki- stan, home to 6 million people.

18 Kofarnihon Rising in the high snowy mountains of central Tajikistan, the Kofarnihon flows through highly contrasting climates from wet to dry and icy cold to desert hot, and boasts diverse water uses for irrigation, municipal needs and industries.

20 Murghab Originating in the dry highlands of central Afghanistan, the Murghab flows into Turkmen- istan and ends at an ancient oasis. Agriculture is the predominant water user in the basin.

5 Water flow in the rivers of Central Asia is defined by a multitude of factors – climate, terrain and soil types, and weather extremes. This report highlights key research findings on five important river basins across Central Asia, and presents the visual material with short annota- tions for a lay readership.

Temperature, precipitation, the extent of permanent snow cover in the basin and the amount of water and snow (melt water equivalent), along with sun radiation and evaporation are the key meteorological factors that define the hydrological conditions. Soil and vegetation cover, slopes, and geological factors as well as human regulation and diversions of water flow play a great role in mitigating or exaggerating flood intensity and the water distribution across a basin. The Soil and Water Integrated Model, applied in this analysis allows rep- resentation of a river basin as a system. It simulates the hydrological, biogeochemical and vegetation process- es, and integrates the anthropogenic impacts of water storage, irrigation and water withdrawals into the mod- elling framework.

The national hydrometeorological services of the Cen- tral Asian countries are producing weather forecasts for 5–7 days that are 80–90 per cent accurate. Producing seasonal weather outlooks is a more difficult task. Hy- drological forecasts rely on weather forecasts, and users are mainly interested in longer-term seasonal predic- tions and flood peak warnings – a daunting task asso- ciated with a high degree of responsibility for human lives, crops, energy production, water regulation and in- frastructure. Climate change projections are inherently

6 uncertain, since they depend on estimates of global Flows in the Kofarnihon depend on the amount of snow greenhouse emissions, global atmospheric processes in winter and the amount and intensity of rainfall in and climate models. Medium and high emission scenar- spring. Rising temperatures will melt snowpack earlier ios were used in these studies. and add water management challenges.

None of the models can project precipitation amounts The Zeravshan and Kofarnihon play vital roles in irrigation or type – rain or snow – with confidence for specific river and crop cultivation in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Water basins, especially in the mountain areas. At the regional management efficiency in agriculture can be improved scale, however, the northern parts of Central Asia are starting from water intakes, pumps and canals, down to expected to become somewhat wetter, while the south- the field and plant level – through drip irrigation, im- ern parts become drier – a continuation of recently proved leveling and crop selection. Many farmers are observed trends as monitored by the North Eurasian already using these adaptation approaches to conserve Climate Centre and portrayed in the recent national water and protect the soil. Others are harvesting rainwa- communications to UNFCCC. Mountain regions have ter and guarding against extreme weather and climate their own climates, and may feature a mosaic of con- variability with greenhouses and protective plantings. trasting trends. All models show moderate-to-strong cli- Authorities are improving coordination and prepared- mate warming from 2°C to 6°C by the middle and end ness measures, cleaning drainage systems and revising of this century, compared to the current climate. protections against flooding in the Esil and Bukhtarma.

The water flow projections were averaged for the peri- Of the rivers in this survey, the Murghab is the most ods up to 2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, and com- vulnerable to climate change, and is likely to experi- pared with the baseline of 1981–2010. Little or no signif- ence significant reductions in water flow in the coming icant changes in hydrology could be seen before 2040 decades. The implications for water security, especially in any of the river basins. Beyond this point, changes are among downstream agricultural users, are serious. likely and their significance will grow over time. As temperatures rise more precipitation is likely to fall Seasonal peaks of water flow are likely to shift to ear- as rain instead of snow, and ice and snowpack are likely lier in the year. Peak flow for the Esil River is likely to to decline due to less snow and higher temperatures. increase. Shrinking glaciers in the Bukhtarma and Zer- These changes will affect river flows in terms of both tim- avshan basins and faster snow melt in spring mean that ing and amount of discharges. The discharge graphs for less water will be available in summer – a troubling pros- the rivers show projections under two climate scenarios pect in the densely populated middle and lower areas based on selected greenhouse gas emission pathways – of the Zeravshan basin, which rely heavily on irrigation. moderate (RCP 4.5) vs. strong (RCP 8.5) warming.

7 Hydrology of rivers Climate change in the mountains of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

3 1 4 2

Seasonal shift More pronounced 1 in water availability 2 inter-annual water fluctuations

Climate change Future Present Baseline

JFMAMJJASOND Present Future Months Years

Snow pack declining due 3 With glaciers Without glaciers 4 to warmer temperatures

mm °C

Glacier water Seasonal supply diminished glacial melt contribution Years

Present 50-70 years from now River ow declining Glaciers contribute important Less water security due to increased evaporation part of ow in hot and dry in hot and dry years summer months Climate change in the northern steppes of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

Water 1 Snow

Ice

Frozen soil 2

Peak seasonal flow 1 and flood 2 Flooding extent Peak ow increase due to more precipitation and Future rapid snow melt Future

Present Present

JFMAMJJASOND

Climate change in southern deserts and highlands of Central Asia and impacts on water resources

Significant reduction in flow

Present Flow decrease due to less precipitation and higher temperatures Future

JFMAMJJASOND Months irrigation canal Esil and Zhabai

The Esil starts as a typical small flatland river in Central Asia with an average flow of 4 m3 of water per second at Tobolsk Astana, the major city in the basin. Further downstream, 1168 (Irtysh) the Zhabai sub-basin drains an area of 8,800 km2 and has Ust-Ishim an average flow of 8 m3 per second. Together the basins Irty 81 sh cover an area of 177,000 km2 and are the largest system Tyumen in the survey. The model considered only 5,400 km2 of

I 68 s the Esil basin – upstream of Astana – but considered the

h i full extent of the Zhabai basin. m 55 RSSA After the Esil River passes Astana and is joined by Zha- Ishim bai and other streams, its flow strengthens to as much as 40–50 m3 per second, doubling as it flows through Russia, where it changes its name to Ishim before join- Kurgan ing the Irtysh River and draining into the Arctic Ocean. Omsk The total length of the Esil is 2,450 km, and the river 47 is mostly fed by spring snowmelt. The climate across Petropavlovsk the basin is continental with moderate rainfall and a temperature range of -40°C to +35°C. Near Astana, a 54 canal spans 20 km to connect the Esil to the Nura River Sergeyevka to supply the capital with additional water. Kokshetau 59 The snow melts faster than the river ice, and the fro- Novoishimskoye KAZAKSA zen soil channels the melt water into the river. For the 2–3 weeks of the snowmelt period, the river dis- 1.4 charges 1,000 m3 of water per second or more at

i Stepnogorsk 3 a Astana and 1,700 m per second downstream at b a Zhabai-Atbasar where the river level may rise by Esil h Z 8 27 6 metres causing significant damage to infrastructure Atbasar and property. When the area experiences sudden warm- 28 4 Astana ing, floods can develop rapidly, and can complicate the forecasts for the timing and scale of the event. Weekly Derzhavinsk 4 3 hydrological forecasts, along with field measurements can provide some indication of imminent flooding, but extreme flooding remains difficult to predict.

Lake N Arkalyk u Tengiz r a Agriculture in the basin uses Esil River water for cattle and some irrigation, but most of the basin’s agriculture Karaganda is rain-fed, and the main water uses are domestic and 0 100 km industrial. City water supplies are sufficient, but popu- lation growth comes with increased demand for water.

Overview

River basin boundaries

National boundaries 15 Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

10 Under both warming scenarios (moderate and strong) for 2041–2070, the monthly peak flow of the Esil River Tobolsk might be lower than current levels, but it will occur over Ust-Ishim two months – March and April – as opposed to the current Ir peak in April. The peak seasonal flow of the Zhabai River tys Tyumen h is expected to be higher than the current flow. An overall increase in the discharge of the Zhabai River by the end

I s of the century under both warming scenarios is projected, h i with particularly strong increase of the peak flow in April. m RSSA Esil River: Projected changes in hydrology Ishim Average monthly water discharges, m3 per second

Kurgan Moderate warming Omsk 6 flo decline Petropavlovsk 5 future ater flo 4 Sergeyevka 3 resent Kokshetau ater flo 2 Novoshimskoye KAZAKSA 1

i Stepnogorsk a b 0 a Esil h J F M A M J J A S O N D Z Altbasar 6 Astana 5 Derzhavinsk 4

Lake N 3 Arkalyk u Tengiz r a 2 Karaganda 1 0 100 km 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Projected climate change impacts on hydrology

Increase in precipitation

Water flow increase

Increase in spring floods

Shift in water peak to earlier dates

Increase in temperature

11 Atbasar

Balkashino

Shantobe

i a ab Zhabai basin Zh 0 2 km x 13

Zhuravlevka

i a Atbasar ab Zh Koluton Shortandy E Zhaltyr sil

Es il

Astana

Flood risk

River basin boundaries

Flooding risk areas 0 50 km Areas most affected by flood of April 2017

The population and the authorities alike are growing from sweeping winter storms and spring floods. Smaller more concerned about the increasing scale of spring towns are also investing in increased flood protection. floods in the lower Zhabai River and in the middle Nevertheless, in April 2017 a dam at Atbasar ruptured reaches of the Esil. As the floods grow, the riverbank and released a wave – amplified by wind and rain – reinforcements cannot keep up with the power of the that flooded more than 450 houses, displaced some water. A massive green belt supported by engineer- 1,400 people and blocked roads. Modelling results ing and flood water diversion structures now surrounds show that such events may become more common and Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, to protect residents intense, if not routine in the future.

12 Zhabai River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second

Moderate warming Strong warming 75 75 uncertainty in cliate odels

flow increase 50 50

future 25 ater flo 25

resent flo 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 75 75

50 50

25 25

0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

13 KAZAKSA RSSA

Bukhtarma Altai Mountains Belukha 4506 Turgusun The glacier-fed Bukhtarma River originates in the Altai Under both warming scenarios (moderate and strong) Serebryansk Mountains of eastern Kazakhstan, and flows from an ele- for 2041–2070, the peak flows of the Bukhtarma River Irt Altai vation of 4,500 m down to 400 m at an average rate of shift to earlier in the year, with strong increase in April ysh 214 m3 of water per second – a powerful river famous for its (doubling compared to the current levels) and some re-

clean water. The minimum recorded flow occurred in 2004 duction in May. For 2071–2100, the changing patterns Bukhtarma reservoir B 3 u at 40 m of water per second, and the maximum recorded of flow under the moderate warming scenario are similar k h 3 t Berel flow came in April 2015 at 2 700 m of water per second. in spring to the same scenario for the earlier period, but a r with a marked reduction in summer flow. m a Agriculture in the basin is rain-fed and consists mostly of pastures for grazing. Some mining occurs in the basin, Under the strong warming scenario in 2071–2100 the Ulken Naryn Uryl and small cities are scattered throughout. Hydropower peak flow comes one month earlier (April is becoming a Katon-Karagay plants operate on the Irtysh River in the cascade, but month of the peak flow instead of May), while river flow 3 none are on Bukhtarma. The Bukhtarma’s whitewater in summer months may decline by 50–100 m of water A rapids and its scenic environment makes it a popular per second. Increase in spring floods tourist destination. Decrease in summer flow Increase in temperature 0 50 km Shift in water peak to earlier dates Glacier melting

KAZAKSA RSSA 210 45 Altai Mountains Belukha 4506 Turgusun Berel glaciers: Serebryansk 1 Glacier loss 15–20% Ir 650 (est.) Altai tysh in the past 50 years

Bukhtarma reservoir B u 17 k h t Berel a 26 r 108 m a Overview 6 25 Ulken Naryn Uryl River basin boundaries Katon-Karagay

National boundaries A 15 0 50 km Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

14 Projected climate change impacts on hydrology KAZAKSA RSSA

Altai Mountains Belukha 4506 Turgusun Serebryansk Altai Irtysh

Bukhtarma reservoir B u k h t Berel a r m a Ulken Naryn Uryl Katon-Karagay

Increase in spring floods A

Decrease in summer flow Increase in temperature 0 50 km Shift in water peak to earlier dates Glacier melting

Bukhtarma River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second

Moderate warming Strong warming 600 600 uncertainty in climate models KAZAKSA 500 500 RSSA flow increase 210 400 400 flow decline 45 Altai Mountains Belukha 300 300 4506 future present Turgusun water ow water ow Berel glaciers: 200 200 Serebryansk 1 Glacier loss 15–20% peak flow shift to Ir 650 (est.) Altai 100 100 tysh in the past 50 years earlier dates 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Bukhtarma reservoir B u 17 600 k 600 h t Berel a 26 r 108 m 500 500 a 6 25 400 400 Ulken Naryn Uryl future present future present River basin boundaries Katon-Karagay 300 water ow water ow 300 water ow water ow

National boundaries A 200 200 15 0 50 km 100 100 Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s) 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

15 Kofarnihon

The Kofarnihon River starts at an elevation of about 3 000 m in the mountains of central Tajikistan, and falls to a low of 300 m. The upper reaches of the river basin Gaznok receive 1 000 mm of precipitation per year and more. 4886 The southern lower part of the basin is much hotter and Ziddi Kalon drier, and gets virtually no snow. Some glaciers feed the river, but most of the flow comes from spring snowmelt. The upper reaches are home to important Tajik indus- Varzob Dagana 43 Romit tries, the densely populated Hissar Valley and the city of 44 Rogun 95 46 Dushanbe and to spas and resorts that take advantage 12 Dushanbe Chinar of the scenic beauty, mineral waters and hot springs in Tursunzoda 20 the area. Vahdat Fayzobod Hisor 7 Elok Total length of the river is 387 km with drainage area Nurek Reservoir 2 3 Denov covering 11 000 km . Average annual flow is 164 m of water per second, with flood peak discharges up to 1 ZBEKSA AKSA 200 m3 per second. Suddenly rising temperatures in the mountains and heavy rains – as much as 30 mm in less than a day – can trigger significant flooding.

The Kofarnihon River is less dependent on glaciers for its Bokhtar water so the melting of glaciers will not affect it as much, but warming temperatures will result in higher river flows 162 in the spring and lower flows in the summer. Population growth in the area puts more people and property in Tartki harm’s way, and new housing and agricultural cultivation along the river adds to the risk.

Shahr-i Tuz Under the moderate warming scenario for 2041–2070, the peak flow is similar to the current peak, but rises ear- lier in the year and declines more quickly after the peak. Under the strong warming scenario for 2071–2100, the Ayvaj 0 50 km peak occurs markedly earlier and remains below the cur- AFASA rent peak. Significant flow reduction is possible in sum- mer months. Overview

River basin boundaries

National boundaries 15 Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

Water diversions for irrigation and other uses

16 Kofarnihon River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second

Moderate warming 300 uncertainty in cliate odels 250 Gaznok 4886 200 flow increase flow decline Ziddi Kalon 150 future resent Romit 100 Varzob Rogun ater flo ater flo 50 ea flo sift Dushanbe to earlier dates Tursunzoda Vahdat Fayzobod 0 Hisor J F M A M J J A S O N D Nurek Reservoir 300 Denov 250 ZBEKSA AKSA 200

150

Bokhtar 100

50

0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Strong warming Shahr-i Tuz 300 250

0 50 km Ayvaj AFASA 200 150 Projected climate change impacts 100 on hydrology 50 Increase in spring floods 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Shift in water peak to earlier dates 300 Decrease in precipitation 250

Glacier melting 200

More rapid snow melt 150

Increase in temperature 100

Population growth 50

0 Irrigated areas J F M A M J J A S O N D

17 Kokand

Gulistan Khujand 40 Kushrabad Konibodom Jizzakh Navoiy Batken KRZSA Kattakurgan ZBEKSA Istaravshan

Samarkand Shahristan Piramidalny Peak 65 155 Pass Ravathodja dam Dupuli 5509 Panjakent Zeravshan 80 Mardushkat Dekhavz Aini a 40 7 7 62 Match Sujina Fandarya Zeravshan Glacier Takfon 19 Ya Shahrisabz 34 gnob Garm Iskanderkul Karshi AKSA Navobod

0 50 km Overview 15 River basin boundaries Average annual water flow per gauging station (m³/s)

National boundaries Water diversions for irrigation and other uses

Zeravshan

The Zeravshan glacier is an important source of the and geological formations are indeed rich in gold, and Zeravshan River, which rises in the mountains of this area hosts the largest gold mining enterprises in Ta- Tajikistan at an elevation of 2 800 m and flows down to jikistan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan. The Zeravshan basin is home to 6 million peo- ple, and the river serves the ancient cities of Samarkand The average annual precipitation in the Zeravshan ba- and Bukhara and provides irrigation for 0.5 million ha. In sin – 500 mm – is unlikely to change much, but the mix Tajikistan, the Zeravshan flows naturally through the is likely to have less snow and more rain. The current mountains with few water withdrawals, but in Uzbekistan annual average temperature of the river basin of 5°C is water demand is high and the available water is fully expected to grow to 8°C under moderate warming and used. According to estimates of the Hydrometeorologi- to 10-12°C under the strong warming scenario. This sig- cal Service of Tajikistan, the Zeravshan glacier has been nificant warming will shrink glaciers and reduce the snow retreating, and has already lost significant size. Rising and ice cover in the basin. The consequent reductions in temperatures may increase the climate risks to agricul- the amount of melt water that reaches the river will result ture in the lower part of the basin in the densely popu- in a declining river flow. At the same time, disruptions lated Samarkand and Bukhara provinces. in the hydrological cycle will increase both the variabil- ity of river flows and the frequency of potentially more The Zeravshan drainage area is about 42 000 km2, and destructive flood events in the mountain areas. In the the river’s length is in excess of 800 km. The name of lower reaches of the basin, cotton yields are highly likely the river translates as “gold bearing”, and while little ex- to decline unless water saving technologies and other tractable gold remains in the main riverbed, its tributaries adaptation measures are introduced.

18 Kokand

Gulistan Khujand Kushrabad Konibodom Jizzakh Navoiy Batken KRZSA Kattakurgan ZBEKSA Istaravshan

Samarkand Shahristan Piramidalny Peak Pass Ravathodja dam 5509 Panjakent Zeravshan Mardushkat Dekhavz Glacier melting Aini Matcha Fandarya Zeravshan Glacier Increase in temperature Ya Shahrisabz gnob Garm Population growth Iskanderkul Karshi AKSA Navobod Risk of water shortage in low-water years

Irrigated areas 0 50 km

Zeravshan River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second Moderate warming 500 500 flow decline 400 400 flow increase 300 300 resent future ater flo 200 ater flo 200

100 ea flo sift 100 to earlier dates 0 0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Kokand

avoi province Samarkand province Gulistan Khujand Kushrabad Konibodom Jizzakh Navoiy Batken ZBEKSA KRZSA Kattakurgan Istaravshan Bukhara ajik Zeravshan province basin Samarkand Shahristan Piramidalny Peak Pass Ravathodja dam 5509 Panjakent Zeravshan Mardushkat Dekhavz Aini Matcha Fandarya Shahrisabz Ya gnob Garm Population and industry Iskanderkul Karshi AKSA Navobod Major industrial sites

Population (1 figure = 100000 people) 0 50 km

Karshi 19 Kara kum Can River basin boundaries Bayramaly al Mary National boundaries Tejen Turkmengala 40 15 Average annual water flow Yoloten per gauging station (m³/s) RKMESA

M u r g h

a

b

50

Tagtabazar 4 r yso a a k K RA h s u AFASA K n a Murichaq h s a Mashhad Serhetabat K 4161

Qala e Naw

Herat 0 50 km Overview Murghab

The Murghab originates in the dry highlands of central Agriculture is the predominant water user in the basin. The Afghanistan at 2 600 m. The river flows north-west within major cropland areas occur in the downstream section of Afghanistan and north in Turkmenistan, and stops at the the river in Turkmenistan and along the traditional irriga- ancient oasis of Merv, mingling its waters with those of tion areas in the basin. the Karakum Canal. The total length of the river is 850 km (350 km in Turkmenistan), and the drainage area is Under both climate scenarios for both the 2041–2070 48 700 km². and 2071–2100 periods, overall flows and peak flows decline dramatically in the Murghab. The peak flows The river is fed mainly by snow and rain in the upper catch- also tend to shift to earlier in the year. Neither of the ment in Afghanistan, and has a mean annual discharge of scenarios takes into account changes that may occur in about 50 m³ of water per second when it enters Turkmen- water use patterns in the Afghan part of the river, but if istan. In Turkmenistan it receives some small rivers and Afghanistan pursues developments that require Murgh- streams, but in view of the predominantly hot and dry cli- ab water, the flow in the Turkmenistan part of the river mate, these do not influence the scale of the flow. might decline even further.

20 Kara kum Decrease in summer flow Can Bayramaly al Mary Decrease in precipitation Tejen Turkmengala Risk of water shortage in low-water years Yoloten Increase in temperature

Population growth

RKMESA Irrigated areas

M u r Predicted flow reduction due to g h climate change a

b

Tagtabazar r yso a a k K RA h s u AFASA K n a Murichaq h s a Mashhad Serhetabat K 4161

Qala e Naw

Herat 0 50 km Projected climate change impacts on hydrology

Murghab River: Projected changes in hydrology Average monthly water discharges in m3 per second

Moderate warming 150 150 uncertainty in cliate odels 125 125 resent ater flo 100 100 flow decline 75 75

50 50

25 future 25 ater flo 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

21 References

Central Asia Water Regional Research Network (CAWA): https://www.cawa-project.net

Central Asia Water Regional Research Network (CAWA): https://www.cawa-project.net

Dartmouth/University of Colorado flood observatory: https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu

North Eurasian Climate Centre of RosHydromet. 2018. Review of the climate conditions and trends in the CIS region for the year 2017. Available at: http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru/climatemonitoring/climatmonitr

National climate and hydrology databases of KazHydromet: https://kazhydromet.kz/ru

National climate and hydrology databases of Tajik Hydromet: http://meteo.tj/

National climate and hydrology databases of UzHydromet: http://meteo.uz/

Global Runoff Data Center (river flow data): https://www.bafg.de/GRDC

National communications and climate risks assessments:

Kazakhstan’s Third-Sixth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2013.

Tajikistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2014. State Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Committee for Environmental Protection. The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Turkmenistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2014.

Uzbekistan’s Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2017. Centre of Hydrometeorological Service.

OSCE. 2017. Climate Change and Security in Central Asia

UNDP. 2015. Climate risk management profiles of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan

UNDP. 2012. Integrated water resource management in the Zeravshan basin.

22 Variations in selected geographic names

Name used in the report Variations and alternatives

Altai (town) in Kazakhstan Zyranovsk Esil Ishim Gissar (mountains, valley) in Tajikistan Hissar, Hissor Kafirnigan Kofarnikhon Murghab Murghob, Murgap, Margiana Zeravshan Zarafshan, Zerafshan, Matcha (upper part of the river) Zhabai Zhabay

Many geographic and local names are pronounced and spelled differently depending on the international or local usage, historical and modern style and other peculiarities. Some cities have been renamed recently, but the older versions are often still used. This report maintains a consistent spelling of names, and the table offers some variations or alternatives of selected names used in the report.

23 Contacts

The Regional Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB, Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) 40 Orbita-1, Republic of Kazakhstan, A15D5B3 [email protected] +7 727 265 43 34 carececo.org ca-climate.org

TAJIKISTAN The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Committee for Environment Protection, Government of the Republic of Tajikistan 5/1 Shamsi, Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan, 7340346 [email protected] +992 44 640 15 16 hifzitabiat.tj

The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Ministry of Finance, Republic of Tajikistan 3 Ak. Radzhabovykh St., Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan camp4asb@greenfi nance.tj +992 93 533 00 15 www.camp4asb.tj

UZBEKISTAN The National Coordination Unit for CAMP4ASB under the Agency for for Rural Restructuring under the Ministry of Agriculture and Water of the Republic of Uzbekistan 39B Kary Niyaziy St., Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100000 [email protected] +998 90 175 10 20 www.rra.uz Center of Hydrometeorological Service (Uzgidromet) 72 1st Proyezd Bodomzor Yuli, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan, 100052 [email protected] +998 71 234 23 41 www.meteo.uz