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Fostering Democracy in Iraq Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Master's Theses Graduate College 4-2008 Fostering Democracy in Iraq Tristam E. Niederer Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/masters_theses Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Niederer, Tristam E., "Fostering Democracy in Iraq" (2008). Master's Theses. 5032. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/masters_theses/5032 This Masters Thesis-Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate College at ScholarWorks at WMU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at WMU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FOSTERING DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ by Tristam E. Niederer A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of The Graduate College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Science Western Michigan University Kalamazoo, Michigan April 2008 Copyright by Tristam E. Niederer 2008 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first like to acknowledge my advisor Dr. Mahendra Lawoti of the Political Science Department. Dr. Lawoti's patience and assistance with this thesis made its completion possible. I would also like to acknowledge the other two members of my committee, Dr. James Butterfield and Prof. David Ede, whose patience and comments at my defense were of great help. A further acknowledgement goes to Dr. Butterfield, for it was in his class on Democratization and Institutional Designin the fallof 2006 that I firstdeveloped the ideas forthis thesis. I would next like to thank the people who helped me edit this thesis, my Mother and Cousin Khristy. By taking time out of their busy schedules to proof read and suggest other ideas I needed to discuss, they helped me create the current finished work. I also would like to thank my friends, family and coworkers who put up with my changing moods and heard me gripe and discuss this paper for six months. I would finally like to thank Raj Singh, a fellow graduate student with whom I discussed most of this paper with and who provided me with support throughout this process. Tristam E. Niederer 11 FOSTERING DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ Tristam E. Niederer, M.A. Western Michigan University, 2008 This thesis evaluates democracy in Iraq and determines if the current institutions are fostering democracy. When the institutions in place are not fostering democracy, I evaluate why they are not and how they could promote democracy. I employ a case study approach of Iraq by first looking at the region's history. I then analyze the works of leading experts of democracy in divided society theory to develop a democratic framework for Iraq. Finally, I focus on the Iraqi government's institutions and the Iraqi Constitution to evaluate their effectiveness. The purpose of this thesis is two-fold. First, as a deeply divided society, the lessons learned in Iraq are valuable for other democracies emerging in divided societies. The framework fordemocracy in divided societies that I developed may be applicable in other countries. Secondly I show how Iraq's past history of authoritarian rule followedby rebellion and chaos and the eventual emergence of a dictator that can be avoided through a framework fordemocracy in its divided society. In the democratic framework I developed, I determined that autonomy/federalism, power sharing, proportionality and minority rights are important criteria for a divided society to maintain democracy. Based on these criteria I conclude that with its current Constitution and formal institutions Iraq is heading in the wrong direction forcreating a stable democracy. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................................................................... n LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................ V CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................... 1 Democracy in Iraq............................................................................... 1 A Backgroundto the Problem ......... ..... ........ ........ ... ........ ... ..... ... ... ... .. 3 IL AN INSTITUTIONAL HISTORY OF IRAQ: FROM THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE TO THE PRESENT............................................... 11 The Mesopotamian Provinces............................................................. 11 The British in Iraq (1920-1932) ......................................................... 18 The Hashemite Monarchy (1932-1958) ............................................. 24 The Iraqi Republic (1958-1968) ......................................................... 31 The Ba'ath Party and Saddam Hussein (1969-2003) ......................... 32 III. FOSTERING STABLE DEMOCRACY IN DIVIDED SOCIETIES ........ 38 Autonomy/Federalism ........................................................................ 43 Power Sharing..................................................................................... 49 The Proportionality Principle.............................................................. 54 Minority Rights................................................................................... 55 IV. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS IN IRAQ ................................................ 57 Democracy and Islam.......................................................................... 58 111 Table of Contents-Continued CHAPTER Federal versus Unitary State............................................................... 62 Electoral Method................................................................................ 71 Presidential versus Parliamentary Governm-ent.................................. 76 V. CONCLUSION....................................................................................... 83 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................. 86 lV LIST OF FIGURES 1. Distribution ofEthnoreligious Groups and Major Tribes in Iraq....................... 5 2. Iraq Oil Infrastructure................................................. :....................................... 7 V 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Democracy in Iraq On December 15, 2005, Iraq held a nationwide election to create a new government. This election, designed to form a parliament, marked the first democratic elections in the country. In just over two years, the Iraqis drafted a constitution and held elections to fashion a new government. Despite these advances towards democracy, Iraq is still failing to manage the ethnic violence that is destabilizing the country. The sectarian violence is eroding the democratic process. The result of the ethnicconflict on Iraq is staggering. According to the Brookings Institutes 2007 report on Iraq, since the end of officialcombat in May 2003 until December 2006, the total number of civilians killed by violence of any 1 kind totals 53-59,000 persons . Further the violence is causing large numbers of people to be internally displaced. By August of 2007 the number had reached an estimated 1,205,000 people. These figures reflect the consequences of the war on the Iraqi people. If the civilian casualties and displaced people seem to be injurious, the cost to the infrastructure of the state is equally damaging. Prior to the invasion in April 2003, it was estimated that Iraq's oil production was at 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. By September 2007, that number had decreased, with production down to 1 http:/ /www3 .brookings.ed u/fp/saban/iraq/index. pdf 2 2.33 barrels of oil per day2. The result is $101. 6 billion dollars in oil revenue by September 2007, up from prewar oil revenue's of $5 billion dollars. However, while this seems like a major increase, it must be remembered that the price of a barrel of oil in 2003 was less than half of what it is in 2007. This combined with the $420 million dollars to repair Iraq's oil infrastructureand the further $1. 7 billion dollars allocated forthe maintenance of the oil infrastructuremeans that 3 very little has been gained in oil revenues since the invasion . Inflationhas risen from36 percent in 2003 to 50 percent in 2006. While there have been increases in some areas of infrastructure, many of these increases are insignificant. For example unemployment numbers in Iraq have consistently hovered between 25-40 4 percent, down by about 10 percent from June 2003 • These statistics are only a few examples of the toll placed on Iraq by the ethnic violence. This conflictis due largely to the divisions between Iraq's two Islamic factions: the majority Shi'a and the minority (but former ruling faction) Sunni. Further violence between central and southern Arabs and northern Kurds creates yet another dimension of ethnic conflict. Managing ethnic conflictwill prove to be the most difficult challenge for Iraq's democracy. The immediate problem for Iraqi political institutions will be to manage this ethnic violence. What democratic institutions can manage ethnic conflict in a divided society and still promote and maintain a stable democracy? Though this applies to Iraq, it also applies to many other divided societies. 2 lbid 3 lbid 4 Ibid 3 However, given its unique ethnic disparities, whatever is the finaloutcome for Iraq's democracy it will be a valuable lesson forother divided societies. The purpose ofthis thesis is to discuss what Iraqi democratic institutions can do to quell ethnic violence in a divided society and promote stable democracy. I will focus specifically on Iraq to get
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