Vol 2 Issue 6 November-December 2019 Special Issue: West Asia in 2019 West Asia Watch Trends & Analysis

West Asia Centre Editor: lEditorial Dr Meena Singh Roy lKey Developments in the West Asian Region Editorial Team

Editorial Coordinator lConflict Zones: Syria, and Libya Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Nagapushpa Devendra and Paulami Sanyal

lIsrael-Arab Relations: More Intractable than Ever Adil Rasheed and Jatin Kumar

lExternal Powers and WANA: The US, Russia and China Editorial Team: Meena Singh Roy and Md. Muddassir Quamar Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan l Dr Adil Rasheed India and the West Asian Region: Expanding Cooperation and Managing Challenges Dr Md Muddassir Quamar Meena Singh Roy and Lakshmi Priya

lThe West Asian Region: In Search of Peace and Stability Editorial Team

Copy Editor: Vivek Kaushik

West Asia Centre

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt, New Delhi – 110 010 Tel. (91-11)2671 7983, Fax: (91-11)2615 4191 Website: http://www.idsa.in EDITORIAL

West Asia in 2019: Trends and Analysis

The geopolitical situation in the West Asian region continued to remain in a flux during 2019 as well. A critical analysis of the key developments that unfolded during the year indicates that the devastating civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen continue to deteriorate amidst growing sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions. The region witnessed the worst humanitarian crisis as a result of violence in Yemen. A power struggle among the key regional stakeholders has complicated the regional security situation. The increasing tensions between Iran and United States as well as the attacks on the oil infrastructure in and the killing of Qassem Soleimani in early January 2020, raised fears of escalation. Surprisingly, the efforts of the UN and other international agencies have been ineffective, as parties to the conflict remain obdurate in their approach.

The competing interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran intensified leading to greater uncertainty in the region, complicating the already deteriorating regional security situation. Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco were exposed to multiple political, economic and security challenges.Taking advantage of the prevailing chaos, several terrorist and extremist groups have entrenched themselves in the region. Violence perpetrated by the militia, terrorist organizations and other armed groups has been a hindrance in the way of achieving any results by means of dialogue. A wave of public protests in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq reveals the poor governance and growing discontent amongst the people given the deteriorating economic situation in these countries. In the midst of such a grim situation, the prospects of peace and stability remain elusive.

What is worrisome to see, is the ongoing uncertainty that has undermined West Asia and North Africa’s economic progress. The region’s economic growth is now almost half of what it was before the Arab unrest began in 2011. Today, WANA has one of the world’s highest unemployment rates as well as the slowest GDP per capita growth. The economic projections of this region continue to remain grim.

In the light of these developments, India followed the policy of robust expansion and deepening of its engagement with the WANA region through its active diplomacy under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi.

The current Special Issue captures the key trends of 2019. The write-ups provide an in-depth analysis of the major developments in the WANA region, covering various dimensions of the problems, challenges and future trends. In addition, the role of the great powers – Russia, the US, China and the EU – is examined. The Issue also looks at India’s engagement with the region in the light of current challenges of great significance that are still unfolding in the region.

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Key Developments in the West Asian Region Editorial Team

Iran traders and masses alike. However, the November protests were marked by the th In 2019, Iran celebrated the 40 presence of violence, with protestors anniversary of Islamic Revolution. setting fire to, looting, and vandalizing Broadly speaking, Iran witnessed public institutions, including banks, gas severe challenges both internal and stations, and even department stores. external. Even though the external The major part of the protests took issues dominated the discourse, the place after November 15, after the domestic challenges were equally hiked-fuel prices came into effect. The consequential. US-Iran tensions plan provisioned for a rationing scheme increased significantly, leading to a and a slashing of fuel subsidies, causing situation of war in the Persian Gulf. The the prices to rise exponentially. The Trump administration continued with proposed plan was agreed to by the its maximum pressure policy on Iran. Supreme Council of Economic In response to the US policy, Iran Coordination, which comprises continued its defence strategy President Hassan Rouhani, judiciary throughout 2019 of using its proxy chief Ebrahim Raisi, and the Speaker of networks in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Parliament, Ali Larijani. The National Syria. In December 2019, Iran- backed Iranian Oil Products Distribution Iraqi militias attacked the US embassy Company (NIOPDC) issued a in Iraq. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for statement, which led to a phenomenal using its proxy in Yemen for attack on increase of 50 per cent in the price of a its oil installation and also on tankers in litre of gasoline to 15,000 Rials (from the Persian Gulf. Regionally, the Saudi- an earlier 10,000 Rials). This was Iran rivalry created a new situation in complemented by a monthly limit of 60 Yemen and escalated tensions. litres of fuel. Above it, additional Internal Developments and Iran’s purchases would cost 30,000 Rials per Responses litre. The state-affiliated media Mehr News Agency reported, citing a security Internally, Iran confronted the agency report, around 100 banks and 57 agitation and protests amidst the shops were set ablaze or pillaged. The mounting sanctions from the US, which protests remained widespread in were driven primarily by the hike in fuel Khuzestan, Tehran, Fars, and Kerman prices. The protests were similar to provinces. The government was quick those in December 2018, as the similar to draw a distinction between the civil grievances were raised, such as protestors and violent increasing prices of food and fuel and rioters/hooligans. By Iranian accounts, economic hardships identified by the looting and vandalizing were

2 carried out by miscreants, fuelled and the Sunni Muslim separatist group, coordinated by foreign forces. As a Jaish Al Adl. In other developments, in result, the Iranian security forces and October, Iran allowed the entry of authorities were forced to shut down women into the stadium for the FIFA the internet and respond with brutal World Cup qualifier match, the first force against the rioters. However, the time since 1979. violent protests were followed by anti- protest rallies in cities of Yazd, Karaj, On the economic front, the challenges Kermanshah, Tehran, Zanjan, Arak, were extreme as the Iranian economy Ardabil and Tabriz. The protests suffered most since the Trump erupted again in January 2020, after administration reintroduced sanctions. General Staff of Iran Armed Forces That said, it would appear that Iran’s acknowledged shooting down of the economy is going to wriggle out of the Ukrainian airliner by mistake, killing all pressure of re-imposed sanctions, since 176 aboard (including 82 Iranians). the country has started adjusting to new Afterwards, the major cities observed sanctions. The Global Economic massive protests, which primarily Prospects report by the World Bank, comprised students and were largely published in January 2020, estimates a instigated in universities, before -8.7 per cent contraction in the Iranian spreading to cities like Tehran and economy. Additionally, the report Isfahan. A few major slogans during the forecasts the Iranian GDP to grow at protests were “Clerics get lost!” and zero per cent in 2020 and at one per “Death to the liars.” Given the severity cent in 2021, illustrating a recovery and of the protests, there were widespread adjustment to the sanctions regime. In discussions concerning the casualties the international market, the Rial and injuries. There was large a variance fluctuated around 42,000 against the in numbers of reported causalities. US dollar. The Economic Intelligence Amnesty International reported at least Unit (EIU) forecasts the Rial to 304 killings in mid-December, which depreciate even further touching the authorities denied and accused around 55,000 in 2020. In mid-2019, Amnesty International of spreading the inflation climbed to more than 50 misinformation. A special report by per cent, which later decreased to 30 Reuters placed the number as high as per cent in late 2019. The Iranian 1,500 deaths, citing three unnamed Statistical Centre (ISC), on the other Iranian interior ministry officials. The hand, provided the national inflation authorities are yet to come out with the rate observed in May-June as 37.6 per cent, which scaled to 40.0 per cent in figures of the death toll. Moreover, in February, a terrorist attack killed 27 November-December. and wounded 13 members of Iran's elite Confronted with internal challenges, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps the country’s Supreme Leader, (IRGC) near Zahedan in Sistan- Ayatollah Khamenei responded in the Baluchistan Province, in South-eastern speech delivered on November 19, Iran. The responsibility was claimed by

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2019, in a meeting with a number of Nuclear Deal and External Ties producers, entrepreneurs and economic activists by offering a strategy One of the key issues central to Tehran’s to manage the impact of sanctions on external and internal policy was the Iranian economy. He said that “….our Nuclear Deal, also known as the Joint main strategy is to immunize the Comprehensive Plan of Action economy against the sanctions. The (JCPOA). In 2019, the JCPOA was one main strategy is to become invulnerable of the major casualties in deteriorating and in fact to arm the Revolution with Iran-US relations. The US withdrawal the weapon of domestic production and and Trump administration’s increasing domestic willpower…one of the sanctions on Iran and the EU’s inability blessings of this action – moving to save the nuclear deal resulted in towards domestic dynamism – is that Tehran gradually scaling back on its the country will stop being commitment to the JCPOA. On May 8, ‘conditionalized’. One of the worst Tehran cited Articles 26 and 36 of the things to do in the country is to agreement and reduced its limitations ‘conditionalize’ the economy.” on heavy water and uranium production. Tehran believed that According to the Supreme Leader, Iran Europe had not adhered to its needs to take advantage of its strengths compliance requirements to the JCPOA which are mainly its young population under pressure from the US; a 60-day relying on its own resources, ending the deadline was issued to its European country’s dependence on oil and focus counterparts to fulfil their on increased and continued commitments under the JCPOA, development of Iran’s scientific and particularly in the banking and oil technological achievements. In sector. On July 7, after the end of addition, he noted that the country’s deadline, in the second-step, Iran power is not confined to its military exceeded the agreed-upon limits of power but its strong economy; uranium enrichment of 3.67 per cent to therefore, in order to manage its 4.5 per cent, which was still short of the current economic challenges the 90 per cent purity required for nuclear country should focus on the above- weapons. Foreign Minister Java Zarf mentioned capabilities. In short, his assured that these incremental message to his countrymen can be breaches of the JCPOA were reversible. captured in following statement: On September 8, Iran undertook the “There are two main issues at hand: one third step, again with a 60-day is that we should not allow the deadline; further reducing its population to decrease. We should not commitments when the Atomic Energy allow the young population to decrease. Organization of Iran (AEOI) began We should increase the birth rate. And feeding gas into its IR-6 centrifuge the second is that we should create machines. Furthermore, the AEOI permanent wealth for the country. began advance research and These two actions should be done.” development (R&D) in all kinds of

4 centrifuges and enrichment facilities. Iran and its External Dimension Finally, as the fourth step, in November, Rouhani announced the On the external front, Iran’s relations injection of gas into 1044 centrifuges. with the US guided its policies in the At the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant region and beyond. Washington (FFEP), Iran injected uranium pursued its “maximum pressure” policy hexafluoride and started uranium against Iran, resulting in rise of enrichment at the existing centrifuges. rhetorical exchanges between the two In January 2020, the Iranian cabinet nations, particularly on Twitter. The announced that it would not exercise year was marked by posturing and restrictions in any operational areas, brinkmanship, not seen since decades including enrichment capacities, between two nation-states. In April enrichment percentage, development 2019, the US Department of State and research, heavy water production branded the IRGC as a Foreign and volume of enriched material. The Terrorist Organization (FTO). In key scale-back was on limitation on the response, the Supreme National number of centrifuges and enrichment Security Council (SNSC), the apex levels surpassed those that existed decision-making body on security and before signing the JCPOA. foreign policy issues in Iran, designated Nevertheless, the announcement the US’ Central Command (CENTCOM) stressed that cooperation with the as a terrorist organization. International Atomic Energy Agency Iran’s relations with Europe suffered in (IAEA) would continue “as before.” In 2019, largely due to the fallout of the response, the Europeans made several JCPOA. Perhaps the inability to find a offers to expand and operationalize reliable ally in Europe pushed Iran INSTEX – a special purpose vehicle towards Asian giants, including Japan (SPV) – to help Iran continue trade and China. Though the various visits by with Europeans. However, INSTEX PM Shinzo Abe and President Rouhani would only enable transactions for signalled a pivot towards the East, the humanitarian purposes and medicines tangible outcomes of these rather than oil, which Tehran so dearly relationships remained limited, amid desired. In September, France fears of sanctions. The joint naval announced a proposal to offer Iran exercise called “Marine Security Belt” about US$15 billion in credit lines, with China and Russia appeared an which was rejected by Iran. In optimistic development for Iran. The response, to complete scale-back of naval drill appeared to be a commitment in January 2020 (except counterweight to the US led-coalition of IAEA inspection), the E3 (UK, France nations, formally known as and Germany) triggered the dispute International Maritime Security resolution mechanism of the JCPOA, Construct (IMSC), which seeks to enabling further collapse of the Nuclear escort vessels and monitor the waters of Deal. the region.

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In the Persian Gulf, the year remained drone in the Persian Gulf, which was tumultuous with a series of events denied by Iran. resulting in an increased threat environment not seen since the Tanker From July onwards, in a tit-for-tat War of the 1980s. The year witnessed a move, Iran and the UK remain engaged restrained Tanker War starting in May, in a diplomatic crisis. On July 4, a when four commercial ships were Panama-flagged Iranian tanker Grace 1 damaged near the port of Fujairah in was seized by British authorities in the Gulf of . Two of these ships Gibraltar, on the suspicion that the belonged to Saudi Aramco, one to the vessel was carrying oil to Syria, UAE and one to Norway. The UAE breaching EU sanctions against the regarded the incident as a "sabotage Bashar al Assad-led Syrian regime. Iran attack," whereas the US blamed Iranian denied the charges demanding the “proxy” elements for the attack. Later in release of the ship. On July 20, IRGC May, the US deployed 1,500 additional Naval Forces raided and captured a troops in the Persian Gulf region as a British-flagged tanker Stena Impero "protective" measure against Iran. citing damage caused by the Stena Again, in June, two oil tankers caught Impero to an Iranian vessel. Grace 1 fire after allegedly being attacked by (later Adrian Darya 1) was released limpet mines in the Gulf of Oman. The from Gibraltar in mid-August, whereas incident contributed to escalation as the British tanker Stena Impero was Washington blamed Tehran. The released in late September. constant deterioration of relations with In its effort to bring peace and stability, the US reached new heights of Iran proposed the Hormuz Peace escalation, particularly with the Endeavour (HOPE). President Hassan striking down of a US surveillance Rouhani, during the UNGA address drone by the IRGC in the Strait of announced HOPE – a regional Hormuz. By Iranian accounts, the arrangement – aimed “to preserve drone violated Iran’s territorial security, peace, stability and progress in sovereignty by entering Iranian the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.” airspace, which Washington Based on principles of non-aggression emphatically denied, stating that the and non-interference in the region, the drone was shot down when it was in coalition intended to promote freedom international airspace. Regardless, of navigation and free movement of oil there was conflicting information in the region. The proposed peace plan provided by Iran and the US concerning did very little to convince its regional the drone's location. Despite the rivals, as they continue to blame Iran increasing threat of military retaliation, for its interference in their countries’ President Trump claimed to withdraw a internal affairs and its hegemonic retaliatory military strike on Iran citing designs in the region. The Iran-Saudi the disproportionality of the strike. rivalry which manifested itself through Later, in July, the US claimed a the contestation in Yemen also became defensive strike against an Iranian

6 pronounced during the year with such responsibility. In response, attacks on Aramco facilities. In Washington carried out airstrikes in September, a missile hit the Aramco five including one is Qaim (Eastern facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, Iraq) and two in Syria, which killed 25 sending oil prices soaring to a session fighters and wounded at least 55 Iraqi high of US$ 71.95 a barrel as the security personnel. Most of these sites markets opened. Even though the belonged to Kataib Hezbollah. Later, on Houthis in Yemen took responsibility December 31, the protestors – mainly for the attack, alleged a clear belonging to the Hashd Al Shaabi Iranian involvement. The brewing (Popular Mobilisation Forces, or PMF) conflict reached a flashpoint when two – attacked and ran-over the US suspected rockets hit an Iranian oil embassy compound in Baghdad. Later, tanker in the Red Sea, off the coast of on January 2, the US carried out a the Saudi city of Jeddah. military strike against a convoy near Baghdad International Airport. The One of the most notable state visits to casualties included among others, Iran was made by President Bashar Al Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, Assad, which highlighted the influence the head of the Quds Force division of that Tehran possessed in Syria. The Iran’s IRGC and Jamal Jaffar absence of Foreign Minister Javad Zarif Mohammad Al Ibrahimi (popularly and his subsequent resignation known by his sobriquet Abu Mahdi Al underscored the fissures in Iranian Muhandis), the deputy commander of policy-making, concerning the Iraqi PMF. US-Iran relations, after the differences on Iran’s regional policy. strike, reached their lowest since the Even though Javad Zarif returned as Iran Hostage Crisis (1979). In response, foreign minister following the rejection Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at of his resignation by President two US military bases at the Ayn Al Rouhani, it depicted the fractures in Asad airbase in Al Anbar governorate, Rouhani administration. Obviously, in western Iraq, along with another Tehran sees opportunity in Syria as a airbase in Erbil, in Kurdistan region of series of development and Iraq. The IRGC informed that it has infrastructure projects are coming up in completed the revenge for Soleimani’s Syria. killing by inflicted 80 deaths; in In December, Iran and the US were response President Trump tweeted “All engaged in a retributive duel, which is well!” indicating no lives were lost. culminated in heightened tensions in The year 2019 was full of new economic the region. On December 27, a rocket and security challenges for the Islamic attack in Kirkuk (Northeastern Iraq) Republic of Iran. The country witnessed killed an American contractor with the extreme pressure from the Trump US Department of Defense. The US administration with serious impact on alleged that the militia group Kataib its oil sector leading to inflation in its Hezbollah was responsible, who denied economy with rising costs of daily

7 commodities for its people at one end GCC and Iran’s increasing isolation at the international level external front. The differences in the Gulf Cooperation However, this pressure did not deter Council (GCC) continue to haunt the Tehran from its aggressive policy organization. The Qatar crisis remains approach in the region of making full unresolved and there have been no use of its strategic assets to retain and successful negotiations between Saudi increase its influence in the region. To Arabia and Qatar. There have been a counter its isolation, Tehran continued few meetings between the Saudi and to strengthen its ties with countries Qatari officials to break the stalemate, facing problematic ties with the US but no visible progress has been such as China, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, achieved. The fissures in the GCC and North Korea at one level and India, continue to remain a challenge for the Japan, South Korea and Islamic organization as well as for regional countries of Asia on the other. Despite security and stability. Mediation efforts being exposed to serious economic and have continued on the part of Kuwait political challenges internally and and Oman. The inflexibility on the part increasing tensions with the US and its of the parties involved has been a key regional rival Saudi Arabia, Tehran was impediment to achieve any consensus. able to manage both its internal and Thus, the mediation by Kuwait and external challenges in rather modest Oman has not been able to produce any way. However, the costs endured by positive results. Iran have been higher, which is likely to There was unprecedented tension in get manifested domestically, as well as, the region after a number of ships were in its external relations in the coming attacked in the waters surrounding the decade. Gulf region. It was alleged that Iran was While Iran has its own capabilities – behind the attacks, while Iran has military, demographic, natural rejected such allegations. Though the resources – and scientific and perpetrators of such attacks were never technological potential, a lot would identified, tensions ran high in the depend on how the country will be able region amid continuing attacks. The to provide space to its reformist groups existing differences between Saudi in a period when hardliners are Arabia and Iran, two key regional becoming increasingly influential players, continued to widen thereby leaving very little space for the further escalating the regional tension reformists. How internal political in the Gulf. Iran regularly threatens to dynamics is played out in future will close the Strait of Hormuz in case of an determine the course of both internal escalation in the region. The sabotage and external policy of the country in attacks on the vessels in the close coming years. waters raise suspicion in the mind of Saudi Arabia regarding the involvement of Iran in such attacks. As

8 a result, the Saudi-Iran relations In May 2019, amid the attack on the remained tense throughout the year vessels in the region and the Houthis’ without any sign of both the powers attack on the pipeline in Saudi Arabia, willing to talk. King Salman called for an urgent GCC meeting in Mecca. He also invited The attack on the two key Saudi Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim to oilfields Abqaiq and Khurais in participate in the meeting but he did September 2019 further heightened not participate. regional tensions. The attacks significantly damaged the oil- fields and Amid the crisis in the organization, the reduced oil production in these oil- GCC held its 40th annual summit in fields. Saudi Arabia alleged the December 2019 in Riyadh. Qatari involvement of Iran behind the attacks Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin which Iran rejected. Houthis claimed Nasser Al Thani represented Qatar, as the attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais but the Emir Sheikh Tamim chose to skip Saudi Arabia claimed that the drones the annual summit. The annual summit and missiles hitting the oilfields came called for strength, cohesion and from the north which cannot be a solidarity among the members of the handiwork of the Houthis. Despite the organization. They also emphasized existing differences among the GCC military and security cooperation countries, the Chiefs of Staff of the among the member states. The Summit Armed Forces of the GCC countries met supported the permanent sovereignty in Riyadh in October 2019. The meeting of the Palestinian people over the unanimously condemned the attacks on Palestinian territory, supported the Saudi oilfields and stated that any unity and sovereignty of Iraq, expressed attack on any of the individual GCC support for the government in Yemen, countries would be considered as an and supported the UN’s role and attack on the GCC. They also stressed activities in Libya and Syria. The on the need to promote collective document, however, is silent on the security in the Gulf and to confront any continuing rift among the member security and terrorist threats. states. The Summit also chose Nayef Al Hajraf to be the next Secretary General As the situation escalated, the of the GCC. American military strengthened its position in the Gulf region. In May The differences between Saudi Arabia 2019, with increasing attacks on the and UAE emerged in Yemen over vessels in the Gulf waters, the US sent Emirati support for the southern USS Abraham Lincoln and B-52 separatists. The separatists are fighting bombers to the Gulf. Later in the year, against the Hadi government, while in the aftermath of the attacks on the Saudi Arabia supports the Hadi Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and government and is working towards Khurais, the US also strengthened its achieving unity and the integrity of the Patriot missile battery in the Kingdom. country. The differences did not last

9 long and were sorted out with meetings the erratic foreign policy that has between the two countries. But exacerbated the challenges for Ankara. nevertheless, their involvement in Yemen remains intense with their The AKP government faced one of its military is actively involved in military toughest electoral tests in March 2019 operations against the Houthis. Both during the country-wide municipal Saudi Arabia and the UAE are two key elections. The performance of the AKP regional players in Yemen who play a and its alliance partner Nationalist decisive role in the future of the Movement Party (MHP) was poor in country. some of the most important mayoral seats and it lost to opposition nominees Yemen remained a key source of in the three important cities of Istanbul, insecurity for both Saudi Arabia and the Ankara and Izmir. This was significant UAE. There have been a number of as the cities were administered by rocket attacks launched on Saudi members of the ruling party for the last Arabia by the Houthis from Yemen. 25 years. The loss of Istanbul to the Several high-value destinations and People’s Republican Party (CHP) installations in Saudi Arabia have been candidate Ekrem Imamoglu was a targeted by the Houthis. Saudi Arabia, major blow as the city is not only a on its part, has intercepted a number of major bastion of the AKP but also missiles and drones heading towards because President Recep Tayyip Mecca, Medina and Riyadh, while some Erdogan started his political career in of them have hit their targets. Among the city when he was first elected in the key targets hit by the Houthis are 1994. the East-West oil pipeline, oil tankers in the Red sea, attack on Abha airport etc. The loss in Istanbul prompted the AKP- For their involvement of the UAE in the MHP alliance to challenge the outcome military operation in Yemen, the of the election and demand a recount. Houthis have also threatened the UAE However, when the recount did not of severe consequences. change the outcome, the ruling alliance challenged the validity of the election Turkey and demanded annulment alleging massive irregularities in recording of Political, economic, security and the votes. This was a last-ditch effort to foreign policy developments in 2019 reverse the outcome, but proved to be a underline the continuity in terms of the major embarrassment for the AKP challenges faced by the country over the when Imamoglu won the rerun in June last few years. The opposition to the with a bigger margin, making it one of ruling Justice and Development Party the worst electoral defeats for the AKP (AKP) grew louder, while the security since it came to power in 2002. situation in the country’s northeast is more vulnerable. Though the Turkish The poor performance of the ruling economy showed signs of recovery, it is party and a good show by the main opposition CHP and the newly-

10 launched Good Party (Iyi) has In fact, most of the political reverses prompted a debate about the changing suffered by the AKP in 2019 were an political mood in the country. outcome of the economic problems that Furthermore, the Kurdish People’s have been continuing over the past Democratic Party (HDP) also did well years. Nonetheless, the economy in many cities and some of the showed signs of recovery in 2019. In the candidates supported by it won the third quarter (July-September) of 2019, mayoral elections in the southeast the year-on-year real GDP grew after region. In addition to better contractions in three previous coordination among the opposition consecutive quarters. It further forces, the AKP had to face a number of strengthened in the fourth quarter, defections from its ranks in 2019. leading to Turkey registering a growth of 0.9 per cent in 2019. The first important leader to leave AKP was Ali Babacan, one of the co-founders Other economic indicators including of AKP, former Minister of Economy external trade, private sector (2002-07) and former Deputy Prime performance as well as the budget Minister (2009-15). In July 2019, deficit showed improvements. But the Babacan resigned from the AKP over FDI continued to fall due to fear of what he described as “deep differences” political uncertainties and other fiscal over policy matters. In September, policies dropping by nearly 12 per cent another prominent AKP leader Ahmet in 2019. The 2018 currency crisis, Davutoglu, the architect of Erdogan’s “which wiped almost 30 per cent off the foreign policy of “strategic depth” and value of the lira” had created serious “zero-problem with neighbours”, who economic challenges for President also served both as Foreign Minister Erdogan and caused a recession, has (2009-14) and Prime Minister (2014- started to ease. The inflation rate 16), left the AKP. Davutoglu had a fall declined from 25 per cent in October out with Erdogan in 2016 and this had 2018 to 8.6 per cent in October 2019 led to his resignation as Prime Minister and ended the year in a better position and since then he had been trying to compared to the end of 2018. unite like-minded leaders to form a front against AKP but had largely failed. Another encouraging sign for the After resigning from the AKP, in economy was the slight improvement in December he finally launched the government revenues to 33.5 per cent Future Party eyeing the same of the GDP but at the same time, moderate-Islamist centre-right space government expenditure grew even from where the AKP began its political more rapidly, reaching 36.5 per cent of journey. the GDP. Notwithstanding, the signs of improvement, some of the fiscal The political upsets notwithstanding, policies of the government has invited the economic situation has remained a criticism from experts. Turkey’s central major concern for the AKP government. bank, that slashed interest rates by 10

11 percentage points in 2019 bringing it was a low-intensity blast, only five down to 14 per cent, is facing a people were reportedly wounded in the challenge to keep the fiscal policy intact attack. because of the government wanting to bring down the inflation and interest Turkey also faces threats from the ISIS rates to single digits. President Erdogan despite its defeat in neighbouring Syria wants the Turkish economy to grow and Iraq. Given that a large population faster and had projected a five per cent of migrants has crossed the Syrian GDP growth rate for 2020, even though border to enter into Turkey, this has the IMF and World Bank expect Turkey become a major cause of concern for the to grow at a mere 0.5 per cent. security forces who fear that some of the remnants of the ISIS might have While Turkey has been able to manage entered the country as refugees and the economic situation and has even they can target the country through absorbed the burden of over 3.5 million lone-wolf attacks. refugees on the economy, the internal In addition to political, economic and security situation in the country has been deteriorating. Issues of human security issues, Turkey has been facing rights and political persecutions apart, numerous foreign policy challenges. Its the Kurdish insurgency has been relations with the US were on the verge seemingly revived and intensified since of collapse over tensions on managing the breakdown in talks between the the situation in northern Syria and government and Kurdistan Workers’ continued US support for the Syrian Party (PKK) in 2015. In 2019, the Democratic Forces (SDF), the Turkish security forces targeted the hideouts of decision to buy S-400 missile defence the terrorist group in the southeast system from Russia and on the Turkish while launching military operations in detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson northern Syria and Iraq to chase PKK who was finally released in October terrorists. 2018. Turkey had also accused the US of continuing to give refuge to Fethullah However, this has caused internal Gulen who Ankara accuses of tensions with an increase in the number masterminding the 2016 coup attempt. of terrorist attacks. In July 2019, at The US has threatened sanctions under least three people were killed in a car CAATSA if Turkey goes ahead with bomb attack in the southern city of deployment of the S-400, but President Reyhanli near the border with Syria. In Trump appeared to give Turkey the September, the PKK allegedly targeted freedom to establish a safe zone in a bus ferrying workers with IEDs in the northern Syria, when in October he southeastern Diyarbakir province, suddenly announced the withdrawal of killing seven persons and injuring US forces. Some of the tensions seemed another ten. Later that month, a bomb to have eased, even if for the time- blast targeted vehicle carrying police being, when Erdogan visited personnel in the town of Adana. Since it Washington in November and met with

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Trump at the White House, a meeting President’s power over the judiciary that was described by both sides as and legislature. Presently with a cordial. unicameral legislature, the new amendments made provisions for an In addition to the problems with the upper house or senate where one third US, Turkey’s problems with its of the members will be chosen by the neighbours in Europe and West Asia President. In a national referendum continued. On the other hand, relations from on 20 to 22 April 20-22, 2019 with China continued to improve. But a domestically and from April 19-21, 2019 key issue was the complicated relations for expatriates, these amendments with Russia which is an important trade were supported by 88 per cent of the partner of Turkey; Ankara depends on voters. This referendum has been Moscow to import nearly one-third of criticised for being unfair and its energy needs. Turkey’s decision to increasing President’s power over militarily intervene in northern Syria Egyptian politics. and its failure to convince the armed rebels in Idlib to join the political Protests by the people have been process had created tensions between declared illegal under Egyptian Protest the two countries. Though eventually, Law of 2013. However, protests erupted the Ankara and Moscow decided to set in several cities such as Suez, Port Said, aside differences and work together to Mahalla el Kubra, Naga Hamadi manage the conflict in Syria, their Alexandria and Cairo on September 20- support for two parties fighting each 21, 2019 over President Sisi’s corrupt other makes it difficult for both to practices. Egyptian military contractor manage the situation. Turkey’s Mohamed Ali, who is now living in problems with the Gulf countries – Spain, alleged earlier in September that especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE – Sisi and his senior officers were compounded over support for Turkey exploiting public funds. Another wave and the two Gulf states seeing Turkish of protests took place on September 27 moves in the region as a precursor to calling for President Sisi’s ouster. Both assertion of its military supremacy. were followed by nation-wide crackdowns on the dissenters arresting Egypt as many as 3000 by October. In 2019 Egypt witnessed an increase in The Wilayat Sinai (Islamic State of Iraq the President’s hold over the country. and Syria: Sinai Province) has been On April 16, 2019 Egyptian parliament active in the Sinai Peninsula and has or House of Representatives approved a launched several terrorist attacks. The set of constitutional amendments to the group claimed to carry out 20 attacks country’s 2014 constitution. These January, 7 in February, 13 in March, 14 amendments allowed President Abdel in April, 21 in May, 20 in June, more Fattah El Sisi’s current term to six years than 4 in July, and 13 in August 2019. and allow him to stand for another Maximum numbers of the terrorist term. The amendments increased the

13 attacks were carried out in Northern “make sure that the Americans Sinai. From January 2019 to September withdraw their troops from Iraq as soon 2019 more than 150 of the suspected as possible because expelling them has militants were killed and more than become difficult whenever they have 200 were arrested. In order to further had a long military presence in a strengthen its fight against the Wilayat country.” Sinai, President Sisi admitted having security cooperation with Israel as well. Meanwhile, air strikes on Iraqi territories by unidentified aircraft in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon July raised speculation that Israel had started targeting Iran-backed Shiite In early 2019, there were clear signs of militia inside Iraq. It was widely some major hostilities and protests that reported that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) rocked Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan later targeted Iran-backed Iraqi militia that year, but both the internal and targets on July 19, July 30 and August external political actors did not give 21, 2019. Israeli officials neither heed as chaos ensued in the three confirmed nor denied responsibility. countries. After the return of US forces to Iraq in Iraq Turns into Arena for US-Iran 2014, Iran-backed militia and Hostilities American troops did not attack each As early as February 2019, Iraqi other as they fought a common enemy President Barham Salih and then Prime − the ISIS. However, with the Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi candidly decimation of the ISIS in Iraq and the conveyed to the visiting US Defense killing of Baghdadi in Syria in October, Secretary Patrick Shanahan their tensions rose between the US and Iran rejection of President Trump’s plan to over the Trump administration’s keep American troops in Iraq to “maximum pressure” campaign that “watch” Iran. Throughout the year, included crippling sanctions. By the Iraqi leaders voiced their opposition end of the year, Iran-backed militia in against the presence of foreign troops Iraq such as Kataib Hezbollah (particularly US forces) in the country conducted “11 attacks over the last two as they feared that a US-Iran conflict months (November-December 2019) could play out in Iraq. on bases and facilities housing American contractors and service For its part, the US reassured the Iraqi members”, according to US forces. In government that it did not intend to use retaliation, the US carried out five the country as a staging ground to airstrikes with Air Force F-15E fighter launch attacks against Iran. But in planes on December 29, which hit three April, then Iraqi Prime Minister Adil locations in Iraq and two in Syria Abdul-Mahdi was told during his controlled by the Kataib Hezbollah official visit to Tehran by the Iranian group. On January 3, 2020, it killed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Iranian general Qassem Suleimani as Khamenei that the premier should

14 well as the deputy chairman of Iraq's began in Jordan when in the middle of PMF and commander of the Kataib February 2019, unemployed youngsters Hezbollah Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, took to the streets, first in Aqaba and which led to a major international then across the country, to march crisis. towards the Royal Court offices in Amman, where they staged a sit-down Lebanon, Jordan Oppose Trump’s protest. Golan Decision Jordan’s Chief of the Royal Court, The other major geopolitical issue Yousef Issawi and senior government involving the US in the Levant officials met on a daily basis with pertained to the reaction of Lebanon strikers’ representatives to resolve the and Jordan over the US’ position in the crisis, but it ended in failure. For Golan Heights. In January 2019, the several months, regular Thursday then Foreign Minister of Jordan Ayman demonstrations were held across from Safadi told the visiting US Secretary of the prime minister's office in Amman, State at a joint press calling for major political and economic conference that, “the Golan Heights are reform. On several occasions, occupied. Israel must withdraw from demonstrators shouted slogans even it”. against the King and demanded a In fact, the statement anticipated constitutional monarchy. President Donald Trump’s recognition In Lebanon, the longstanding peg of the of Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied country’s currency (Lebanese Pound) to Golan Heights in March 2019. The the US Dollar came under threat in decision was vehemently opposed by January, presaging public unrest that Lebanon because the issue of Golan followed the ensuing financial crisis. By Heights is linked to the issue of Shebaa April, Lebanese citizens were staging a Farms, wherein Lebanon claims the protest against the upcoming budget latter to be its own territory. Thus, fearing that the government may Lebanese President Michael Aoun said announce reduction in pensions in a bid that Beirut's stance regarding the status to reduce an enormous public debt. But of Golan is an absolute rejection of this ongoing protest became a Israeli “sovereignty” over the territory, nationwide agitation when the especially as part of it includes the Lebanese government announced new Shebaa Farms and the Kafrshuba Hills. tax measures on October 17. In Popular Protests in Iraq, Lebanon and unprecedented scenes, tens of Jordan thousands of peaceful demonstrators, cutting across all religious, sectarian Similarly, the groundswell of popular and class denominations, assembled in discontent that swept and upstaged cities across the country blaming the governments in Iraq and Lebanon as political leadership of nepotism, well as threatened Jordanian politics corruption and incompetence as well as was ominous even in early 2019. It all

15 calling for a social and economic economic affairs, which upset even the overhaul. All attempts by the Iraqi Shiite community in the south of government to placate the protesters the country as much. The biggest with promises of reforms proved leaderless protest broke out in fruitless, as public agitations continued Baghdad's Tahrir Square. Security in Beirut, Zouk, Tripoli, Jal el Dib, forces opened fire in early November Saida and other places. Eventually, when people were crossing a bridge to Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced reach the Green Zone – where the main his resignation. government offices were located.

Although popular protests had been Earlier, on October 9, then Prime raging in Iraq since 2018, the Minister Abdul Mahdi assured a government’s budget in February drew reshuffle of his cabinet and start a lot of criticism for failing to shift programmes to reduce unemployment. resources away from salaries and the The announcement failed to convince security sector towards services, the masses and protesters returned to agriculture, industrial development, the streets on October 25. As violence and the reconstruction of war-torn intensified till the end of November that areas in the country’s north. The pent- claimed 149 civilian lives, according to up grievances boiled over in October, Iraqi official sources, Prime Minister when people took to the streets of Abdul Mahdi resigned, saying his Baghdad and Basra, cutting across the decision was “necessary as part of the Shia-Sunni divide, to express their de-escalation”. Meanwhile, President anger at rampant corruption, the high Barham Saleh promised a new electoral rate of unemployment and the poor law that would “allow for elections that state of public services. There was also are more just and better represent the deep-set resentment over Iran’s heavy people”. interference in Iraq’s political and

16

Conflict Zones: Syria, Yemen and Libya Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Nagapushpa Devendra and Paulami Sanyal

The situation in the key conflict government absolutely lacks the hotspots of Syria, Yemen and Libya resources to rebuild the country. continues to remain alarming. All the According to the UN, US$ 3.29 billion three countries are still facing was required to meet the urgent needs prolonged civil war, widespread of the most vulnerable Syrians in 2019, violence, terrorism, internal but only about two-thirds of it has been displacement and a severe received. humanitarian crisis. Years of continuing conflict and violence have The country remains divided into three created political instability and zones, each in the hands of a different unremitting security challenges. In the group and supported by foreign forces. absence of any mutually agreed The first, under government control roadmap for the future, the political with backing from Iran and Russia, and social polarizations in these encompasses 90 per cent of the countries still remain widespread. As a country, which includes all of its major result, the negotiations and mediation cities. The second, in the east, is in the efforts to restore peace and stability hands of a Kurdish-Arab force backed by the US. The third, in the northwest, have produced meager results. The developments in the previous year have is under Turkish control, with a mix of not been encouraging for these opposition forces dominated by countries either. religious extremist forces. The Assad regime, certainly, would not accept Syria partition of the country and would, ultimately, reassert its control in the Even after eight years of violent eastern and northwestern regions. As a conflict, the Syrian civil war does not result, armed conflict to capture more show any sign of abating. President and more territories continues in the Bashar Al Assad has been successful in country. saving his regime in the face of violent protests and a constant hard-hitting As of December 2019, the Syrian campaign by the opposition coalition, military reportedly captured several but at a steep cost. The economy is villages in southeastern Idlib province shattered, there are more than 5.6 while continuing airstrikes on the city million Syrian refugees living in other of Maarat Al Numan. The Syrian countries, around 6.6 million people military opened a “humanitarian are internally displaced, and the corridor” to allow civilians trapped in

17 southern Idlib and northern Hama ‘Operation Peace Spring’ in northeast provinces to escape the fighting there. Syria. Turkish-backed forces entered The regime has also recaptured the the areas such as Ras Al Ayn, Tel Abyad, town of Khan Shaykhun for the first and Suluk; and controlled the towns as time since 2014. The Syrian well as the highways. US President Observatory for Human Rights says Donald Trump threatened Erdogan of that rebels also withdrew from their further economic sanctions. Later, remaining territory in Hama province, Vice-President Mike Pence and which would have been encircled once Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Khan Shaykhun fell. Turkey and met with President Erdoğan in order to end Operation The Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) Peace Spring. The US and Turkey reportedly attacked the town of Kafr reached an agreement to a ceasefire Takharim in Idlib province in that Mike Pence said would be a retribution for anti-HTS protests that ‘solution [that] we believe will save residents held. Protests against HTS lives.’ As per the deal, the US agreed to and in solidarity with the people of Kafr withdraw the Syrian Democratic Forces Takharim reportedly broke out in other (SDF) and Ankara would get relief from towns in Idlib province. While the the economic sanctions that Trump has rebels cannot match Russian air power imposed on Turkey. The immediate and shelling by the regime, they are still effect of the ceasefire will be to leave fighting to hold on to any territory Turkey in control of a 20 mile deep under their occupation. Turkey “safe zone” along the border that continues boosting its weapons Turkey had previously demanded. The supplies to rebel proxies in Syrian Observatory for Human Rights northwestern Syria including armoured says the fighting has left 224 SDF vehicles and anti-tank weaponry, which soldiers, 183 Turkey-backed fighters, has helped shift the military focus on and 72 civilians, dead. The fighting has the ground. Turkey’s aim is mostly to also displaced around 275,000 people stem the flow of refugees toward the in the area. Turkish border. Israeli air strikes Operation Peace Spring Israel has carried out a large number of President Erdogan said that a Turkish strikes in Syria throughout the year. On invasion of northeastern Syria could December 6, 2019, an Iranian begin “at any time.” Ankara has been ammunition depot in Al Bukamal was frustrated with the lack of progress in hit by an Israeli airstrike. This attack talks with the US about setting up a safe came after Israel conducted four air zone in northeastern Syria to “secure” strikes in Syria between November 12 Turkey’s border with Syria. As Turkey and November 20. The air strikes has not been to sign a deal with the US, targeted the advanced air defense it has threatened to act unilaterally. In systems, surface-to-air missiles, late 2019, Turkey launched its

18 reconnaissance sites and warehouses, campaigns against it since 2016. The among other targets. Israeli attacks on territory controlled by the ISIS has now Syria have two main purposes. Firstly, been significantly reduced to the to diminish Iranian support to central desert pocket in the country Hezbollah and other militias who are with Deir ez-Zor being the heartland of working to open a low-intensity remaining Syrian ISIS remnants. The military front threatening Israel’s Syrian military has conducted combing northern border, and secondly to operations and airstrikes against the maintain Israeli freedom of action and pocket, but only with limited air supremacy in its neighbourhood and success. The US-backed SDF are still weaken Syrian military capabilities, “rooting out” ISIS fighters from the more specifically anti-aircraft missile area around Baghouz in eastern Syria. sites and their support system. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, ISIS fighters carried out US Withdrawal from Syria multiple attacks, targeting Syrian President Trump has stated his soldiers across Homs and Deir Ezzor intention to withdraw from Syria provinces, killing a large number of leaving only around 500-600 US people. soldiers in eastern Syria, to continue Though the ISIS is significantly the anti-ISIS mission and to secure the weakened in Syria, the challenge from oilfields. But reports suggest that there Al Qaeda continues to remain serious in are concerns about the security of those the country. It is believed that the Al US forces as they have no longer any Qaeda may plot terrorist attacks by local allies after the Kurds have started exploiting the existing chaotic security cooperating with the Syrian regime. situation in the country. A new branch Thus, the US forces are at the risk of of Al Qaeda, called Hurras Al Din, being surrounded by the Syrian emerged in early 2018 with estimated military. US forces in northeastern 2,000-3,000 fighters. It is the Syria have relied on the SDF for successor to the Khorasan Group, a security and intelligence; and if those small but dangerous organization of channels are now compromised then it hardened senior Al Qaeda operatives in would be harder for the US troops to Syria to hit the Western targets. The remain in Syria. rise of the Hurras Al Din as well as the ISIS and Al Qaeda operations of other Al Qaeda affiliates in Africa, Yemen and Afghanistan, ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria underscores its enduring threat despite continued to perpetrate abuses, ranging the death of Osama bin Laden and from executions and kidnappings to being largely eclipsed in recent years by interference in aid delivery. ISIS’s the ISIS. Hurras Al Din consists, physical footprint and operational basically, of those Jabhat Al Nusra capacity in Syria has been significantly members who refused to go along when diminished by sustained military

19

Al Nusra severed its links with Al Qaeda in northeastern Syria to clear back in 2016. “terrorists” from the area around the border. However, a spokesperson for Safe Zone the Russian defence ministry has Erdogan met with Russian President warned that the Turkish threat “can in Sochi on October 22, only escalate the situation in northern 2019, to discuss the situation in Syria.” Russia has also announced that northeastern Syria. They came out with it is moving additional military police a deal to jointly patrol the border area into northeastern Syria to bolster the and ensure that SDF fighters withdraw forces that have been conducting joint towards the south. In return, Turkey patrols of the border region with agreed to the Russian demand to Turkey. acknowledge Syria’s territorial Prior to this, the US gave Turkey a “final integrity. The agreement presumably offer” that included a joint US-Turkish forestalls any possibility of a conflict operation to set up a nine mile deep, 87 between Turkish forces and the Syrian mile long safe zone on the Syrian side of army, which is deployed in the border. All YPG forces would northeastern Syria after an agreement withdraw from that zone, which covers with the SDF. It also mandates the about a third of the border between the removal of the SDF from a much larger Euphrates River and the Iraqi border. area compared to that under the The US and Turkey would jointly patrol agreement, which Turkey reached with the area, and if things went on smoothly the US. there, the zone would eventually be But, the crucial question is about the extended to cover the rest of the border. size of the proposed ‘Safe Zone’. The US The US had also sent a team to says that Turkey is only occupying a southeastern Turkey to discuss the strip of border territory between Tel details of a possible safe zone in Abyad and Ras Al Ayn, which is around northern Syria. At this point, the only 120 kilometres. But Ankara seems to thing on which Ankara and Washington think it will control all the territory have agreed is to set up a “joint along the Syrian-Turkish border, even operations center” to oversee the in places where the Syrian military has implementation of the safe zone. already deployed in the wake of the Turkey has been demanding to impose SDF’s agreement with Damascus. The a 20-mile deep safe zone in the east of buffer zone plan may also be in danger the Euphrates. It would have the because Turkey continues to insist that opposite effect – likely displacing more the Kurdish People's Protection Units than 90 percent of the Syrian Kurdish (YPG) militia, which makes up the bulk population, exacerbating what is of the SDF, has not withdrawn from the already an extremely challenging border area. Turkey has threatened to humanitarian situation, and creating expand its “buffer zone” for security an environment for increased conflict reasons and to launch a new offensive

20 that would require an extended coast, since June 2019. In 2019 there deployment of military forces. have been 4,900 recorded events that have caused 17,700 civilian casualties The proposed safe zone will hurt the US as verified by the UN. interests as well. The US has been trying to prevent the resurgence of ISIS, Yemeni Peace Process protect those who fought it alongside the Global Coalition, and thwart alleged Despite multiple attempts by the UN to Iranian efforts to use the area to broker a ceasefire that would lead to a propagate its sectarian activities. The comprehensive settlement to the US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces are conflict, the parties themselves the most effective fighting element in continue to hinder diplomatic progress. Syria against ISIS. Their presence In December 2018, the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Yemen, promotes stability and the return of local governance, which is key to Martin Griffiths, brokered a ceasefire prevent the resurgence of ISIS. Their known as the Stockholm Agreement, centred on the besieged Red Sea port control of the area also shuts down facilitation, movement, and resources city of Hodeida. Even at the end of that ISIS requires to achieve its 2019, the Agreement’s confidence- objectives. Implementing a safe zone building measure remains unfulfilled. that would drive Kurdish forces out The Houthis have offered the Yemeni would likely disrupt those efforts. government a new, relatively small prisoner swap, involving around 2000 Yemen people as a first step toward further peace talks. This seems a little more The civil war in Yemen which is in its manageable than the 15,000-person fifth year shows no signs of abating. The swap that was originally negotiated. war has killed thousands of Yemenis, including civilians, children as well as Representatives of the Yemeni combatants, and has significantly government and the Houthis met on a damaged the country’s infrastructure. UN-chartered ship in the Red Sea to The intense conflict during the last five discuss the implementation of the years between the Yemeni government Hodeida ceasefire plan they concluded forces and the Houthi rebels has left late last year. Talks concluded with tens of thousands dead or injured. what the UN called a “mechanism and According to the UN, in Yemen, around new measures to reinforce the ceasefire 14.3 million people are classified as and de-escalation”. The two sides are being in acute need, with around 3.2 supposed to be meeting regularly to million requiring treatment for acute coordinate their mutual withdrawal malnutrition. The UN reports that an from Hudaydah. Since then the Houthis estimated 3.3 million people remain say, and the UN agrees, that they’ve displaced, up from 2.2 million in 2018, implemented step one of the including 685,000 people who fled redeployment plan by pulling their fighting in Hudaydah and on the west forces out of Hodeida’s sea port as well

21 as two smaller ports in province. Now then governor Aidrous Al Zubaydi it’s up to the Yemeni government to through the provision of salary, withdraw its forces further from benefits, and dealt with him as a Hudaydah city, at which point the president – allowing him to act as an parties can move to the second phase of alternate government. President Hadi the withdrawal agreement, in which sacked Zubaydi over his disloyalty to both sides are to withdraw from the government and allegiance to the Hudaydah completely, to a distance of members of . at least 18 kilometres. Though the fighting between the Houthis and The UAE’s policy shift in Yemen did not coalition continues in the areas not appeal to the Saudi Crown Prince covered under the peace deal, many Muhammad bin Salman in the long- view the Stockholm Agreement as an run. He eventually decided to pull off indicator of sustainable peace and that the duct-tap and allowed the Hadi if pushed harder, it could lead to government to condemn its activities negotiations on winding down the rest and support as “illegal” and “violation of the north Yemen conflict. of its Sovereignty”, which is outside international norms. He also did not Southern Transitional Council attempt to curb the growing resentment against Abu Dhabi’s military presence In the summer of 2019, tension in South Yemen. In mid-June 2019, between the Hadi government and the demonstrations broke out in the separatist Southern Transitional Shabwah governorate that featured Council (STC) boiled over, leading to banners opposing the UAE’s violence between the local allies of ‘occupation’ of the region. On July 1, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the popular unrest intensified in the Island pro-government forces, including the of Socotra, where demonstrators raised Islah and The Muslim Brotherhood are the Yemeni flag and decried the UAE’s supported by Riyadh; the STC is being alleged destabilization of the Island. backed by Abu Dhabi. The escalation However, the UAE later partially revealed the differences between the withdrew its forces in March 2019. The two key regional powers – Saudi Arabia STC, disenchanted with its patron’s and the UAE – over Yemen. The UAE military withdrawal, raised anti- supports the Hadi government and has government rhetoric due to which declared to protect the Yemeni clashes erupted between the separatist constitution. But given its strategic group and Yemeni forces in . location bordering Bab el Mandab, a vital chokepoint in the region, Abu On August 26, 2019, Riyadh offered a Dhabi views Aden as significant factor ceasefire to the members of STC, who in that could connect its expanding turn, expressed their zeal military base in the West Asia and to participate in the Saudi-led dialogue North African region. In 2017, the UAE at Jeddah. The separatists withdrew went to the extent of supporting the their forces from the presidential palace

22 and central bank offices. So far, they are control of oil pipelines and oil fields of not giving up the military sites it seized, Balhaf, Mukalla and Ash Shihr. and insist that that they will not do so Additionally, Al Qaeda is also strongly unless members of the Islamist Islah connected with the local communities Party and “northerners” are purged and tribal leaders. It poses a much from all government positions. On greater threat than the ISIS in Yemen, November 11, 2019, the Saudi-Hadi which has failed to embed itself in coalition signed an agreement to end Yemeni society and establish links with the STC’s uprising in southern Yemen other local factions, something the and form a new unity government. As AQAP has been successful in achieving. per the agreement, the STC will get Al Qaeda has also attacked the STC several cabinet ministries in return for fighters who are trying to expand its giving up control of the territories it occupation in Southern Yemen. It has seized during an insurrection that re-captured several areas in Abyan and started in August. Among those Shabwah province from forces aligned territories is the city of Aden, which will with the STC. The Al Qaeda is also regain its former status as the accused of bombing Yemeni soldiers in temporary capital of the displaced Hadhramaut province. At present, the Yemeni government. ISIS operates training camps in some areas of the south and takes credit for While the deal has reduced fighting attacks on Houthi-linked targets, between the government and the STC in though it has yet to carve out any areas Aden, clashes on other fronts have of territorial control. intensified. It was reported that the separatists have begun moving in AQAP and ISIS have increasingly come Zinjibar – the capital of neighbouring to blows with each other, prominently, Abyan, Ataq and some other cities near clashing in Al Bayda province. ISIS and the Gulf of Aden. The Yemeni Al Qaeda are reportedly engaged in a government has accused the UAE of conflict of their own in central Yemen. bombing and air-striking its soldiers in Throughout the year, clashes occurred southern Yemen. The Yemeni defense regularly in central Al Bayda province ministry claimed that more than 300 of between Yemeni tribal forces aligned its soldiers were killed and wounded in with the two terror groups. The ISIS UAE strikes. The UAE officials, deployed suicide bombers, including a however, have said that they targeted Somali national, against Al Qaeda “terrorists” who had attacked positions, killing and injuring more “coalition” forces. than 10 fighters, including its commanders. Al Qaeda, in retaliation, Al Qaeda and ISIS attacked ISIS bases, claiming to wrest Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula six of them away. In turn a tribal group (AQAP) has established its presence in affiliated to Al Qaeda offered a US$ large parts of Yemen stretching from 20,000 reward for the apprehension or Aden to Hadhramaut including the death of the local ISIS leader. In

23 addition, an online propaganda war of political interference by the regional videos, images and even poems and extra-regional powers which regularly take place in social media further worsen the situation. Though forums and Internet chat rooms as both the UN has been actively trying to sides seek to gain more followers and mediate and broker a deal among the sympathizers. parties, the continuous and unregulated violence has been an For the most part, this fight involves obstacle in the establishment of peace local factions aligned with either group in the country. working out their own grievances with one another under the imprimatur of Political fractions international jihadism. But with ISIS looking for a new home, that could Throughout the year 2019, Libya remained divided under two different change, and even if it doesn’t, this is still one of several local or regional conflicts political and military factions. One is that will make it difficult to keep Yemen the UN-backed and internationally recognised Government of National together if and when the main war finally ends. Accord (GNA) headed by Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj based in The US State Department has put a US$ Tripoli; and the other one is the 6 million bounty on the head of a senior Tobrouk-based government backed by AQAP leader Saad bin Atef Al Awlaki, General Khalifa Haftar under the and a US$ 4 million bounty on the head Libyan National Army (LNA). The of another AQAP terrorist named claim of these two parallel factions, Ibrahim Ahmed Mahmoud Al Qosi. along with their military forces, to Saudi Arabian Special Forces have authority and legitimacy has remained reportedly captured the leader of ISIS’s a critical hurdle in the way of reaching branch in Yemen, who goes by the name a political consensus in Libya. Abu Osama Al Muhajer. They captured him and several other senior ISIS Haftar launches attacks leaders in a June 3 raid on a house that The beginning of 2019 witnessed Haftar locals say was in Yemen’s Abyan launching attacks on the oil-rich province. southern parts of Libya. His forces Libya attacked the city of Sabha in January; El Sharara and El Feel oilfields in The situation in Libya continues to February 2019. These two oilfields remain extremely fragile and tense. The produce approximately 400,000 parliamentary elections proposed to be barrels per day. These areas were held in 2019 could not be held due to attacked under the pretext of removing escalating violence among various terrorists hiding there. The terrorist groups, and a lack of consensus among groups in Libya primarily operate from the key political factions in the country. the Mediterranean coastal strip, but for Libya has also witnessed intense Haftar, military control over the

24 southern parts of the country is also consensus on key issues. Haftar important as it gives him the strategic rejected proposals to submit his army control over the transmission of to the government in Tripoli; Al Sarraj, electricity, supply of water, and control on the other hand, emphasized to build of important trade and smuggling a unified military placed under a routes along the southern border. civilian authority. Moreover, a Libya Brigadier General Ahmad Al Mesmari, Local Governance Forum supported by the spokesman for the LNA, said that USAID, the World Bank, and UNDP Haftar is planning to eliminate the Libya was organized on September 14- Sudanese, Chad and local insurgent 16, 2019 in Tunis to develop a political groups who, given the attractions of solution from the local administration. vast reserves of energy and water in Similar such events were organized southern Libya, have created a safe among the local leaders in 2017 and haven in that area. 2018, in Tunisia and Libya respectively. These meetings made it clear that local On April 4, 2019 Haftar and LNA forces governance in Libya has no place for launched attacks on Tripoli and the external interference to end the war in western parts of Libya under the the country. control of GNA. The LNA captured the city of Sirte, Mitiga Airport and Amidst the persisting political Gharyan; and as a result, a no-fly zone instability and violence, municipal was declared over Tripoli in November. elections were held in nine out of 69 According to the LNA, the objective of councils of southern and western Libya the attack was to remove The Muslim (120 municipal councils in the country) Brotherhood-linked groups and other on March 30. The turnout in this Islamist factions in those areas. election was only about 38 percent. According to a report by Al Jazeera on Another nationwide election was December 13, 2019, at least 200 proposed by Fayez Al Sarraj on March civilians and more than 2,000 fighters 5, 2019. The election was meant to were killed since April 2019; and convene an all-inclusive Libyan around 146,000 people have been congress in order to reach an internally displaced in the country. agreement on a future roadmap, along with a constitutional foundation for Negotiations presidential and legislative elections Negotiations between rival factions before the end of 2019. On March 20, have remained unsuccessful. General Ghassan Salamé, the head of United Haftar and Prime Minister Fayez Al Nations Support Mission in Libya Sarraj participated in a dialogue prior (UNSMIL), announced that a National to the Tripoli attack in Abu Dhabi on Conference on the possible Libyan February 27 under the mediation of elections would be held from April 14- UAE. Both leaders agreed to hold 16 at the city of Ghadames. However, general elections to end the transitional after the attack on Tripoli, he phase but they failed to reach a

25 announced the postponement of the Libya. France has been supporting National Conference. Haftar for his fight against the ISIS, along with UAE, Jordan and Egypt. US ISIS in Libya President Donald Trump too The ISIS continues to remain a key recognised Haftar's participation in challenge for peace and security in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's Libya. It is taking advantage of the oil resources. Egyptian President Abdel power vacuum and continuing civil war Fattah El Sisi argued that the GNA in the country. ISIS carried out four would not be able to have a free reign attacks against the LNA, in Fuqaha, because they were hostages under Tamanhint air base in Sabha, Ghadwa, militias in Tripoli that he labeled as and at the Zella oilfield in May 2019. “terrorists”. Though the UAE has The US carried out three missile attacks officially supported the UN-backed in Murzuq in southwest Libya in government in Tripoli, recently it too September, killing 36 ISIS terrorists. has been supportive of Haftar’s After the killing of Abu Bakr Al activities. On the other hand, even Baghdadi the ISIS in Libya has pledged though it is UN-recognised, GNA their allegiance to the Abu Ibrahim Al received support only from Turkey. On Hashemi Al Qurashi, who was November 27, Turkey and Libya signed announced as the new leader of the two agreements on security and group. Between April to November military cooperation and restriction of 2019, 10 suspected ISIS terrorists were marine jurisdictions. Erdogan also said arrested in the city of Sirte. Prior to that if it is required by GNA, Turkey will 2019, when the US airstrikes targeted increase its military support and struck ISIS positions on the on December 22. ground, Libyan fighters were used to Conclusion assess the damage and gather intelligence. However, Haftar, bombing Even after a decade since the Arab the Libyan forces, including a strike unrest began, the situation in these that destroyed their main three countries is unstable. There are a headquarters, has stopped Libyan number of factors that have shaped the fighters from traveling to sites of the US developments in these countries. While airstrikes and from patrolling the the political differences among the desert. political factions and groups remain unresolved, the involvement of armed Regional and extra-regional powers militias and terrorist groups has The involvement of the regional and created further violence and instability. extra-regional players has, to a large Taking opportunity of weak central extent, shaped the politics and security authority, terrorist and extremist in the country. In 2019, LNA managed organisations have been trying to to capture international support via its expand and further strengthen their attempt to fight Islamist terrorism in strongholds in these countries. Though

26 the ISIS has been defeated in Iraq and situation. However, the parties and Syria, it is reported that the remnants of stakeholders involved in the conflicts the ISIS are trying to reassemble and have been inflexible and adamant in may resurface at any opportune time in their approaches towards the situation, future. They are trying to gain a thereby, further driving the situation foothold in Yemen and expand their towards instability. activities in Libya. If the situation continues unabated, it will only lead to (Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is an violence, death, and destruction. The Associate Fellow at West Asia Centre, reconstruction of these countries will IDSA.) take years of effort, and at the same (Nagapushpa Devendra is a Research time, it would require a huge amount of Analyst at West Asia Centre, IDSA.) financial assistance. The UN and the international community are trying (Paulami Sanyal is a Research Analyst their best to help these countries to at IDSA) come to terms with the civil war

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Israel-Arab Relations: More Intractable than Ever Adil Rasheed and Jatin Kumar

Little love was lost between the state of and reprisal attacks by the IDF.On May Israel and the Palestinian factions in 5, 2019, over 250 rockets were fired into 2019, as a new spiral of violence southern and central Israel, many of exacerbated the decades-old conflict which were intercepted by Israeli forces between the two sides, while the Trump mid-air. In response, Israel Defence administration officially recognised Forces struck 60 locations in the Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights, Palestinians. In view of the escalating which had been seized from Syria in the situation, an Egypt-facilitated ceasefire 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Even the came into effect on May 6, 2019. economic aspects of the Trump peace plan, titled “Peace to Prosperity: A However, tensions between the sides Vision to Improve the Lives of the flared up later in the year, when the IAF Palestinian and Israeli People”, which targeted and killed Baha Abu al-Ata, the US released on June 22, 2019, led to commander of the Palestinian Islamic more acrimony and mistrust between Jihad (PIJ) on November 12, 2019. In the contending sides, as all Palestinian its briefing following the strike, rhe IDF factions rejected the plan described Abu al-Ata as a “ticking time outright.Political uncertainty also bomb”, who it claimed was preparing prevailed in Israel, where recurring for several attacks on Israeli territories. elections could not break the jinx of According to the IDF, he was fractured mandates and failed attempts responsible for “volley of rockets fired at government formation. at the city of Sderot on November 1” and for targeting an open-air Sderot festival Israel-Palestinian clashes in August. The killing escalated hostilities between Israel and several The Israel-Palestinian conflict Palestinian factions, excluding Hamas, continued to spill blood in 2019, as which lasted two days. The clashes phases of uneasy calm were claimed 34 lives, including 23 men, interspersed by frequent clashes eight children and three women. between the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad with the Israel Defence Force Hostilities between Israel and (IDF). Tensions spiked in May 2019, Palestinians undermined any prospect when two Israeli soldiers were injured of peace between the two sides. The US- in sniper fire in the Gaza Strip. In proposed peace plan, termed as “peace retaliation, Israeli Air Force targeted for prosperity”, proved to be a non- the area that killed two Palestinians. starter. This led to a barrage of rockets being fired into Israel’s southern territories

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Trump’s Declaration on Golan Council resolutions. In its response, Heights Iran’s foreign ministry said the “illegal and unacceptable recognition does not On March 25, 2019, President Donald change the fact that it belongs to Syria”. Trump officially recognised the Israeli Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sovereignty over the Golan Heights strongly rejected the move and said the which was seized from Syria in the 1967 Golan Heights are occupied Arab Arab-Israeli war. The US declaration territory. The announcement was also spurred a fresh war of words between condemned by Saudi Arabia and the Israel and the countries of the region. UAE. Responding to the declaration, Syria's foreign ministry called the US decision Israeli General Elections a “blatant attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Syria. He further For the first time in the history of Israel, noted: “The liberation of the Golan by two elections were held in the same all available means and its return to the year. However, the inconclusive results Syrian motherland is an inalienable in both elections failed to produce a right”. While the Foreign Minister of decisive mandate and no political party Turkey, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said his had the requisite majority, nor was any country would not accept the US political combination able to form a decision on the Golan Heights, UN government. With the withdrawal of Secretary-General Antonio Guterres one of the ruling Likud Party’s vital stressed that “the status of Golan has coalition partners from the government not changed”. The United Nations on November 16, 2018, Israel decided Security Council had adopted a to hold early elections on April 9, 2019, unanimous resolution in 1981 which seven months ahead of schedule. The stated that Israeli “decision to impose decision was taken to avoid the its laws, jurisdiction and possibility of a sitting prime minister, administration in the occupied Syrian Benjamin Netanyahu, being indicted in Golan Heights is null and void and future on charges of bribery, fraud and without international legal effect”. breach of trust in a set of long-running corruption cases. In the wake of the UNSC resolution, the recent Trump declaration was criticised The elections were held in the backdrop by some member-states of the Security of violent confrontations with Council. For its part, France noted that Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and with any effort to move away from Iran in Syria. The results were largely in international law and UN resolutions line with the projections made by pre- through unilateral decisions “is election polls and surveys. With a voter doomed to failure”. While the UK said turnout of 68.41 percent, Likud that the Golan is territory occupied by appeared as the largest party with 36 Israel. Commenting on the decision, the seats, while the newly-formed ‘Blue and Foreign Minister of Russia said White’ bloc secured 35 seats. The changing the status of the Golan results registered a significant change Heights would violate UN Security in the vote share of smaller parties with

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Shas and United Torah Judaism the Likud was losing popularity, largely securing eight seats each, Hadash-Ta’al due to the ongoing corruption charges and Labour winning six seats, Yisrael against Prime Minister Netanyahu. Beiteinu and United Right gaining five seats each and Meretz, Kulanu and Unlike previous elections, smaller Ra'am-Balad winning four seats each parties performed better and secured (See Table 1.1). After seeing off a strong more seats. The joint list secured 13 challenge presented by Blue and White seats, Shias nine seats, Yisrael Beiteinu bloc in the elections, Netanyahu was eight seats, UTJ and Yamina won seven given the opportunity to form a seats, Labour-Gesher won six and the coalition government, but he failed to Democratic Union secured five seats do so. (See Table 1.2). After the declaration of results, Netanyahu was invited to form In the absence of a ruling party or a coalition government yet again, but coalition, Israel was left with no option was unable to in the assigned 42-day but to hold another election within five period. President Rivin then asked months of the previous one. The second Benny Gantz to form the coalition election was held on September 17, government but he too failed. 2019 for the 22nd Knesset. The voter turnout was at 69 percent and the It is noteworthy that Israel experienced results placedBenny Gantz’s Kahol a similar kind of deadlock twice in 1984 Lavan Party as the largest with 33 seats, and 1988, though at that time the leaving Netanyahu’s Likud Party one opposition party, Labour, helped Likud seat less at 32. The results showed that to form a National Unity Government. Table: 1.1 —Knesset Election in Israel (April 9, 2019)

Name of list Number of Percent of Total Number of Votes Votes Seats Likud 1,140,370 26.46 35 Blue and White 1,125,881 26.13 35 Shas 258,275 5.99 8 United Torah Judaism 249,049 5.78 8 Hadash-Ta'al 193,442 4.49 6 Israeli Labor Party 190,870 4.43 6 Yisrael Beitenu 173,004 4.01 5 United Right 159,468 3.70 5 Meretz 156,473 3.63 4 Kulanu 152,756 3.54 4 Ra'am-Balad 143,666 3.33 4 Number of Eligible 6,339,729 Voters Source: Government of Israel, https://knesset.gov.il/description/eng/eng_mimshal_res21.htm

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Table: 1.2 — Knesset Election in Israel (September 17, 2019)

Name of list Number of Percent of Total Number of Votes Votes seats Blue and White 1,151,214 25.95 33 Likud 1,113,617 25.10 32 Joint List (Hadash, Ra’am, 470,211 10.60 13 Ta’al, Balad) Shas 330,199 7.44 9 Yisrael Beitenu 310,154 6.99 8 United Torah Judaism 268,775 6.06 7 Yemina 260,655 5.87 7 Labor-Gesher 212,782 4.80 6 Democratic Union 192,495 4.34 5 Number of Eligible Voters 6,394,030

Source: Government of Israel, https://knesset.gov.il/description/eng/eng_mimshal_res22.htm

Economic Part of ‘Deal of the Palestinian territories of the West Bank Century’ Unveiled and Gaza, $7.5 billion to Jordan, $9 In order to address the Israel- billion to Egypt and $6 billion for Palestinian peace process, which has Lebanon. The White House hoped fallen into abeyance for several years, wealthy Gulf States to be among the the Trump administration unveiled a biggest donors. Money raised through $50 billion Palestinian investment and this international effort would be infrastructure proposal aimed at placed in a newly-created fund to boost supporting its much-anticipated but the economies of the Palestinian areas until then unreleased, “deal of the and the aforementioned three states. century” Middle East peace plan on The amount would be dispersed by a June 22, 2019. The scheme called for an multinational development bank and assortment of public and private the fund would be administered by a financing and intended to create at least board of governors who would fix a million new jobs for Palestinians. The allocation on the basis of project details were posted on the White House proposals. website before a two-day conference in Bahrain in late June. According to A “Peace to Prosperity” workshop in the proposal, donor nations and Manama was held amidst intense investors would contribute about $50 scepticism about its viability, and the billion, with $28 billion going to the fact that Palestinian leaders had rejected the economic proposal

31 outright, as it was believed that the envoy to Israel in protest against Israeli proposed economic largesse was refusal to release two detained conditional to Palestinians making Jordanian citizens. In November 2019, major political concessions as part of King Abdullah of Jordan declared an the complete deal. With no official end to a leased agreement that gave participation from both Palestinians Israelis access to two border enclaves, and Israelis the conference was later Baqura and Ghamr. This has come as a dubbed a ‘workshop’ and the economic major blow to the Israel-Jordan peace part of ‘deal of the century’ proposal treaty, which was signed in 1994 turned out to be a damp squib. between King Hussein and Yitzhak Continued uncertainty and strong Rabin. The symbolic value of the doubts over the plan’s political vision decision points to the gradual erosion of and the potential of a looming US-Iran trust between the two countries. The conflict, prevented the proposal from fact was acknowledged by King becoming a serious plan. Abdullah himself on November 21, 2019 at an event organized by the Worsening Jordan-Israel ties Washington Institute for Near East The year 2019 saw increasingly Policy in New York City, when he said embittered Israel-Jordan relations. that “the Jordanian-Israeli relationship This can be attributed to recent Israeli is at an all-time low. Part of it is because policies on the issue of Jerusalem, West of Israeli domestic issues”. Bank settlements, its reported plans to Israel expands ties with Gulf annex the Jordan Valley and the stalled States Israel and Palestinian peace deal. Strained political relations between the The growing fear of Iran’s rising two countries remained a concern for influence in the region has brought the Jewish State, because Jordan and erstwhile adversaries Israel and the Egypt are the only two Arab countries Gulf countries much closer than before. that share formal diplomatic relations In June 2019, Israeli journalists were with Israel. surprised by the welcome they received at the ‘Economic Peace Summit’ at On October 14, 2019, the Speaker of the Bahrain. This was first time when the Jordanian House of Representatives Israeli journalists were allowed to visit and president of the Arab Inter- the country. On July 16, 2019, Foreign Parliamentary Union Atef Tarawneh, Minister Israel Katz met Bahrain’s noted at the 141st International Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled Al Parliamentary Union Assembly in Ahmad al-Khalifa in Washington. He Belgrade that the peace treaty between was on a visit to Washington to take Jordan and Israel is “under threat” and part in the US State Department’s it's mainly due to Israeli “violations” freedom. On October 21, 2019, the head against Jerusalem. The situation of the Foreign Ministry’s regional further deteriorated on October 30, security and counter-terrorism 2019, when Jordan called back its

32 department of Israel Dana Benvenisti- seeking “non-aggression” agreements Gabay, took part in a security with Gulf States. conference known as the Working Security in Bahrain. This conference Series of protests erupt in was a follow-up to the US-led Middle Lebanon East Conference in Warsaw, which was Since October 17, 2019, the people of held in February 2019 and focused on Lebanon have been protesting against growing Iranian threats and terrorism the deteriorating economic situation in the region. Currently, Bahrain and and the corruption in political Israel do not share formal diplomatic leadership. The protests focus on ties, but the Gulf countries essential grassroot issues and have are progressively developing the gone beyond the sociological divide. relationships with Israel against rising Interestingly, it has not been led by any insecurity from Iran. In November political party. However, the demands 2019, Israeli players participated in a of protesters have been more or less Ju-jitsu World Championship that was similar to previous protests in the held in Abu Dhabi. It was also invited to region, as they mainly focus on participate at the Expo 2020 in the corruption, economic crises and lack of UAE.The Israeli participation has given freedom. The protests erupted on 17 a fresh sign of warming ties between October 17, 2019 when the government Israel and some Arab states. suggested raising revenues by Although Kuwait has always been introducing taxes on gasoline, tobacco against normalizing relations with and online phone calls, especially on Israel, it was reported by an Israeli the social media app ‘WhatsApp’. The News Agency that a group of Kuwaiti decision came at a time when other businessmen visited Israel in February long-term issues, such as corruption, 2019. On November 26, 2019, the squandering of national wealth and Foreign Ministry of Israel hosted a swindling of governmental entities delegation of Arab journalists pushed people to agitate. comprising participants from Saudi The proposal for new taxes came at a Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Egypt, as well time when the country was facing a as two musicians from Iraq. looming liquidity crisis. One of the The assessment of Israel’s Gulf policy main complaints of the people was the underlines that in the short run, it strict procedures imposed by banks in wants to sign a “non-aggression” the country on the average depositors. The banks imposed caps on agreement with Gulf States which can become a cornerstone for the withdrawals which caused a scarcity of normalization of relations between the national currency in the Lebanese two. On October6, 2019, Israeli Foreign market. They also devalued the Minister Israel Katz also hinted about it Lebanese pound against the US dollar. in his tweet which said that he is Furthermore, people were also unhappy with the political system,

33 which was believed to be riddled with in urgent need of a government nepotism and sectarianism and had competent in dealing with the existing failed to provide basic amenities to the economic calamity and saving the citizenry. country from further deterioration.

To put an end to the protests on Syria: Battleground for Iran and October 21, 2019, then Prime Minister Israel Saad Hariri announced a set of reforms which promised strict measures against In 2019, Syria continued to be an active corruption and redressal of local playground for Iran-Israel rivalry. This grievances. However, the package of was mainly due to Iran’s presence in reforms did not satisfy the protesters Syria which is seen as a serious national who demanded his resignation and security challenge to Israel. Therefore, Israeli air force carried out multiple wanted an end to the sectarian quota system in Lebanese politics that airstrikes targeting Iranian positions in according to them fostered corruption, Syria. On January21, 2019, Israel’s Intelligence Minister openly said that nepotism, and government mismanagement. “Israel is in open confrontation with Iran in Syria”. The statement came after Under immense pressure from the Israeli Air force repelled a missile people, Saad Hariri stepped down from attack by Iranian forces from Syria into the position of prime minister on Israeli territory which intended to hit October 29, 2019. His resignation was the northern Golan Heights. The welcomed by protesters; but the tension grew amid planned US nationwide uprising continued and withdrawal from Syria. On August25, paralyzed life in the country for 2019, it attacked areas near Damascus months. Finally, President Michel Aoun in order to avert an imminent drone asked Hassan Diab to form the next attack by Iran. The attack was government on December 19, 2019. The considered one of the most intense Hezbollah and its allies nominated attacks on Iranian targets in several Hassan Diab after consultations with years and was responded to by Syrian Members of Parliament. anti-aircraft guns. On September9, Unsurprisingly, right after Aoun’s 2019, Syria blamed Israel for targeting announcement, protests started against eastern Syria which killed 18 Iran- Hasan Diab’s nomination and backed militiamen. The attack came in protesters called for an independent the backdrop of growing tensions head of government. This made it clear between Iran and the US in the wake of that the protesters were not going to its withdrawal from JCPOA. On accept any candidate which has the November20, 2019, Israeli Air force backing of the Hezbollah. The intensity targeted Iranian-backed forces near of demonstrations underlined that the Damascus, in response to an Iranian situation in Lebanon was not going to attack on Israel a day earlier, change so soon. Currently, Lebanon is significantly aggravating tensions

34 between Iran and Israel in Syria. that the strikes were focused on “Terror According to a rights monitoring group, Targets” and was retaliated by a Syrian the strikes killed at least 21 people. air defense missile targeting Israel. Commenting on the strikes, IDF said Lebanon have the potential to add one more politically and socially weak state Conclusion in the region. Israel’s worsening In the wake of the above developments relations with Jordan may exacerbate the prognosis for the upcoming year in security issues; Israel’s gradually this region seems quite grim. For one, improving relations with the Gulf there is the likelihood of continued countries may have a positive effect on Israeli-Palestinian confrontation with the Jewish state, as it does not share very low possibility of reaching an formal diplomatic relations with a large agreement. Israel favours the ‘Deal of number of Arab States. the Century’ peace proposal, but it has (Dr Adil Rasheed is Research Fellow at already been rejected by the West Asia Centre, IDSA) Palestinians. Meanwhile, Iran’s presence in Syria will continue to force (Jatin Kumar is Research Analyst at Israel to carry out air strike. Protests West Asia Centre, IDSA) and a worsening economic situation in

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External Powers and WANA: The US, Russia and China Meena Singh Roy and Md. Muddassir Quamar

The West Asia and North Africa The US (WANA) region has for long faced interventions and has been influenced US foreign policy has faced serious by external powers. While historically, disruptions and unpredictability under the European colonial powers had President Donald Trump. In the WANA intervened in the region in search for region, the focus of the Trump resources and market, the situation administration has been containment changed after the Second World War, of Iran by exerting “maximum whereby in the dynamics that played pressure” to weaken the Iranian resolve out, the United States and Soviet Union to spread its hegemony in the region at competed for influence and alliances in the cost of the US’ strategic interests the region. This led to serious conflicts and of its regional allies namely Israel and proxy wars between the US and and Saudi Arabia. The other issue that former Soviet Union. The debate of a has received substantial attention of the unipolar world after the disintegration Trump administration is the Israeli- of the former Soviet Union Palestinian conflict with the objective of notwithstanding, the United States finding a solution through the much remained the only pole in regional hyped “deal of the century”. Besides, geopolitics in WANA region until the President Trump has focussed on advent of the Arab Spring and the civil lucrative defence deals with the war in Syria, that facilitated the re- countries of the region and for the first entry of Russia in the region. Further, time since the Kuwait Crisis (1990-91) in the last decade or so, China has stationed forces in Saudi Arabia. In gained a significant foothold in the Syria and Iraq, US military presence region through its economic diplomacy continues despite the expressions by and has now started to take interest in President Trump to minimise military political and strategic affairs to commitments or completely withdraw safeguard its economic interests. forces. Moreover, given the developments US-Iran hostilities witnessed a sharp within the European Union and the rise in 2019 following the US decision of growing regional competition in May 2018 to withdraw from the Joint WANA, the European countries too are Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) taking greater interest even though and the re-imposition of secondary their ability to shape the outcome of sanctions on Iran under the “maximum regional geopolitics remains limited. pressure” strategy. In April 2019, the US designated the Iranian

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Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as after Iran shot down an unarmed aerial a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) surveillance drone accusing it of and sanctioned some of its key leaders violating Iranian air space. However, at including its commander, General the time, President Trump changed the Qassem Soleimani. The IRGC is one of plan to attack Iran stating that it will the most important arms of the Iranian cause disproportionate damage and regime with significant influence over loss of life to Iran. In July, an Iranian oil domestic political and economic affairs tanker allegedly heading to Syria was and has a near-monopoly over strategic seized by Britain in the Strait of affairs, especially in developing Iran’s Gibraltar, and in retaliation Iran regional influence. IRGC is responsible captured a British oil tanker and its for developing Iran’s military ties with crew, including Indian members, in the state and non-state actors in Iraq, Syria, Persian Gulf. The issue was resolved Lebanon, Yemen and the Palestinian later after the two tankers and crew territories. Trump, without identifying members were released by both sides. the specific instances accused IRGC of Further, the US refrained from taking involvement in multiple acts of terror direct military action after the attack on against the US, reiterated the view that two Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Iran is sponsoring terror through the Abqaiq and Khurais in September, IRGC. The US also ended the which both Saudi Arabia and the US exemptions for eight countries, blamed on Iran despite the Yemeni including India, which was extended for rebels claiming responsibility. 180 days in November 2018 while imposing secondary sanctions on Towards the end of 2019, the tensions Iranian oil imports. had started to rise again but this time the theatre was Iraq which was facing The hostilities between the US and Iran protests against the Iraqi government continued to escalate throughout 2019. as well as Iran’s interference in Iran, as a way of responding to US domestic politics. Tehran, in sanctions on Iranian oil exports either conjunction with Baghdad, was trying directly or through the Houthis in to contain the unrest and this led to the Yemen, targeted oil vessels in the targeting of the protestors by the Hashd Persian Gulf. For example, two Saudi al-Shabbior, the Popular Mobilization oil tankers were sabotaged off the UAE Force (PMF), the Iran aligned umbrella coast in May while similar attacks took organisation of Shi‘a militia which place against two oil tankers operated caused deaths of several Iraqi by companies based in Japan and protestors. Further, Kataib Hezbollah, Norway in June in the Strait of Hormuz. a dominant group within the PMF, This prompted the US to step up its carried out rocket attacks at the K1 military deployment in the Persian Gulf military base in Kirkuk used by the US with deployment of additional warships forces in the Kurdish autonomous and patriot missile batteries in May. region in Iraq that led to the death of a The situation came to a head in June US military contractor and injured

37 some US personnel. In retaliation, the of the century.” After the controversial US launched air strikes on Kataib decision to recognise undivided targets in Iraq and Syria leading to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, in death of 25 fighters. To protest US March 2019, Trump recognised the action and the killing of its fighters as 1981 Israeli law annexing Golan well as a counter to ongoing Iraqi Heights which it captured from Syria protests to demand the end of the Adel during the 1967 war. In June 2019, the Abdul-Mahdi government, the PMF first part dealing with the economic organised sit-in and protests near the aspects of Trump’s proposed peace plan US embassy in Baghdad. was launched in Manama. The document titled “Peace for Prosperity” On December 31, a serious escalation pledges to contribute US$ 50 billion for happened when a large number of PMF the economic development of the protestors tried to break-in the Palestinian territories if the Palestinian embassy and set a number of security leadership agrees to the political plan installations in the outer perimeter of for ending the Israeli occupation. the embassy on fire. The US retaliated Incidentally, the event to launch the with drone strikes at Baghdad airport economic plan of the “deal” was not on the intervening night of January 2 attended by the Palestinian leaders who and 3, 2020, in which General claimed that they are not ready to sell Soleimani, the IRGC commander and the rights of the Palestinian people. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the chief of Kataib Hezbollah along with several Later, in January 2020, the political others, were killed. The killing of framework of the deal was launched Soleimani, considered close to the ending the long-anticipated and much- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and hyped talk about the best possible plan regarded only second to him in terms of to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. his influence within the regime, not The proposed framework came as a only stunned the world but also created shock and surprise for the international an immediate fear of serious military community as it justified the Israeli escalation in the Persian Gulf. Iranian occupation of Palestinian territories leaders pledged to retaliate and take and did not address any of the revenge for the killing and the IRGC important issues in the long conflict, through its bases in Iraq targeted namely border, settlements, right of military bases in Iraq used by US refugees to return and status of personnel. Nonetheless, the mistaken Jerusalem. Expectedly, the plan was downing of a Ukrainian civilian aircraft rejected by the Palestinian side that put Tehran on the defensive. termed it as “slap of the century” calling that the US has lost its position as a The Trump administration since taking neutral mediator and the proposed plan office has stated the objective of confirms that the Trump resolving the Israeli-Palestinian administration is working at the behest conflict through the much hyped “deal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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Netanyahu to help him in the additional military personnel were sent forthcoming Israeli Knesset elections. to various US military bases in the Persian Gulf in the wake of rising With its efforts failing to make any tensions with Iran to ensure safety and headway in resolving the rift within the security of the smaller Arab Gulf states. (GCC) and the growing tensions in the Persian The US, despite the announcement has Gulf, the US has enhanced its military not been able to withdraw completely deployments in the Arab Gulf countries. from the Syrian and Iraqi theatres. In While the GCC countries rely on the US the Syrian case, Trump had in for security, Saudi Arabia is among the December 2018 announced that the US largest buyers of US military equipment will withdraw from Syria as the main and training programmes. President objective of the defeat of Islamic State Trump since taking over the (ISIS) had been achieved. However, administration has touted the defence this raised doubts within the US as well deals with Saudi Arabia as the most as among the allies in Europe over the important aspect for continued sudden vacuum the complete strategic partnership between the two withdrawal will create. At the time, the countries. During his visit to Riyadh in Pentagon and State Department had May 2017 the two sides had reportedly been able to reduce the anxiety by signed a defence procurement deal preventing a complete withdrawal and worth US$ 110 billion. However, in May underlining that the US only plans to 2019, the administration’s plan to sell reduce its personnel after the defeat of surface-to-air missile systems to Saudi the ISIS but will continue to deploy Arabia for deployment in Yemen came some forces to help strengthen the in for bipartisan criticism in the US Kurdish militias who were instrumental Congress. in the fight against the ISIS. However, again in October 2019, President In October, the US Department of Trump took everyone by surprise, after Defense announced that due to the talks with the Turkish President Recep escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, Tayyip Erdogan, announcing that the the US has sent around 3,000 US has ordered complete withdrawal of personnel to be stationed in Saudi US forces from northern Syria. This was Arabia. This is in addition to the limited done to placate Turkey which had been number of personnel sent for training threatening to launch a full-scale war in and advisory purposes. This is the first northern Syria against the US-allied time that the US military personnel Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) returned to the kingdom after they had and its armed wing, the People’s left in later 1990s due to the rising Protection Unit (YPG) which Ankara controversy over stationing of claimed was in league with the foreigners and “infidels” in the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) of kingdom. Further, the US has Turkey. Despite the announcement of confirmed that in 2019, over 14,000 withdrawal of forces, the US killed the

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ISIS leader on October 27 in an addition, there have been several issues operation carried out with the that have created tensions between the assistance of Turkish forces in the two allies including differences over northwest Idlib region of Syria. dealing with the Syrian Kurds. While the US sees the Syrian Kurds as an ally Even in Iraq, the situation has not that helped defeat the ISIS in Syria, for changed much despite the growing cost Turkey the YPD-PYG’s association with of the war and President Trump’s the PKK is considered a national occasional pronouncements to bring security threat. back the American soldiers from the wretched wars in the Middle East. After As noted earlier, the US decided to pull the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq back its forces in northern Syria in in 2011, the US forces were redeployed October to facilitate the creation of the under a diplomatic agreement in 2014 Turkish safe-zone to secure the porous in pursuance of the US-Iraq Strategic Turkey-Syria border. In the same Framework Agreement signed in 2008 month, the Trump administration to fight the growing menace of ISIS. imposed sanctions on a few of the Despite the much anticipated military cabinet members of the Turkish defeat of the ISIS in December 2017, government but after the coming into the US has not been able to withdraw its the effect of the ceasefire on October 23, forces from Iraq because of growing the sanctions were withdrawn. This internal divisions in Iraq, the continued has, however, not changed the status of weakness of the Iraqi military as well as resolutions passed by the US Congress the growing influence of Iran-aligned on Turkey called the Protect against militias. The US Congress has Conflict by Turkey Act which has authorised the continued deployment provisions for sanctioning Turkish of US forces until December 2020 and officials and institutions for foreign given the escalation in tensions with arms procurement. The continued Iran and reports about the revival of tensions place the long-term relations ISIS, it is unlikely to be able to between the two NATO allies in serious withdraw the forces from Iraq. jeopardy.

US-Turkey relations have gone through Russia major fluctuations in the past few years. One of the key sticking points has been In a region deeply affected by rivalry, the Turkish decision to buy the Russian historic disputes, civil wars and S-400 missile system. In July 2019, national security concerns, Russia was able to enhance its presence and role. after the first consignment of the S-400 was delivered, the US announced that it With its aggressive involvement and is removing Turkey from the agreement active diplomacy President Vladimir on supply of 100 F-35 fighter jets and Putin has been able to secure Russia’s the US will no longer manufacture the long-term eminence in the West Asia components of F-35 jets in Turkey. In and North Africa (WANA) region. Moscow’s military intervention in Syria

40 in 2015 was the turning point, officially Similarly, Lebanon has struck a deal restoring Russia as a key player in with Rosneft, mainly to develop and regional geopolitics. Thereafter its operate oil facilities in the northern city presence and involvement continued to of Tripoli. This helps Russia to have its grow. In 2019, Moscow’s strategies presence in Lebanon’s energy sector, signalled its continued desire to sustain besides managing to secure Syrian its strategic space in Syria and build border with Lebanon by thwarting stronger ties with other Gulf partners. Tripolian Islamist support for the Its policies were focused on maximizing Syrian opposition. Lebanon views opportunities in the region with a Russia as a counterbalance to Iran. minimum of commitment or potential Egypt has advanced its political and for losses. defence ties with Russia to counter new security challenges coming from Sinai, Throughout the WANA region, Russia from Syria and the critical situation has been ubiquitous, with its growing evolving in Libya. Expanding political, security and military linkages. counterterrorism cooperation, Egypt Russia’s growing involvement was in held first-of-a-kind joint military drills, many ways facilitated by the lack of any dubbed ‘Arrow of Friendship-1’, from comprehensive US strategy towards the October 26 to November 7, 2019. region. Some believe that “Russia has Israel, yet another important American made inroads in the Middle East at the ally, has maintained good relations with expense of U.S. power.” Interestingly, Russia. Israel signed an agreement its role in Syria was acknowledged by with Russia according to which, President Trump. He thanked Putin for Moscow will not only secure the Israel- facilitating the operation to kill Abu Syria border but also prevent Iran from Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ISIS leader. building military bases in southern Despite Moscow’s strong ties with Iran, Syria. Saudi Arabia gave a red-carpet welcome to President Putin. More importantly, The Arab Gulf countries have been Russia’s role in the region in general equally welcoming towards deepening and Syria in particular, has made their ties with Moscow. Growing Arab- Moscow a crucial actor for regional Russia ties are viewed by the Gulf countries including the US allies, to leadership as a counterbalance to the manage their national security Iran-Russia partnership. This interests. Some of the examples are perception becomes more important in those of Turkey, the Kurds and the the light of the shifting focus of the Bashar Al-Assad regime. All three have Trump administration towards East engaged Russia to protect their security Asia as compared to West Asia. interests. Turkey has fallen deep into President Putin’s first visit in 0ctober Moscow’s sphere of influence, not only 2019 to Saudi Arabia and the UAE since enhancing political ties but also by 2007, highlighted his desire to build buying the S-400 system, a deal stronger ties with these two vital Gulf opposed by the Trump administration. states assuring its Gulf partners that

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Russia-Iran relations were not against equal distance with Russia, the US and them. President Putin said that “We Iran. Russia maintained cordial build bilateral relations that rely on relations with these countries. After the positive trends generated by our killing of Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the contacts; we do not build alliances Iraqi government called for the against anyone.” Showing the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Kingdom’s interest to work closely with Russia, Saudi King Salman remarked, Russia views its engagement with the “We look forward to working with WANA region as a way to re-establish Russia to achieve security and stability its past position as global power and fight terrorism.” Russia has been particularly at a time when the US pursuing a balancing policy in the position and influence is seen to be region to protect its interests. Russia- weakening. The other important reason Israel relations continued to grow, for Russia to enhance its engagement which was reflected by Moscow’s with the region has been its concern acceptance of Israeli strikes in Syria about the potential for the spread of against Hezbollah on many occasions. Islamic extremism and terrorism to However, at the other end it continued Russia and its neighbouring states from to cooperate with Iran and Hezbollah hotspots in West Asia. Unlike the US, on the ground in Syria to protect the Moscow presents itself as a reliable Bashar Al-Assad regime. It also partner to promote trade, investment provided the S-300 anti-aircraft system and energy cooperation instead of to both Iran and Syria, despite Israel raising issues of human rights, regime strongly opposing the move. In case of change and freedom of press. By its Yemen, Russia sided with the Gulf intervention and diplomacy in the States against Iran by supporting the Syrian conflict, President Putin has GCC’s position. Similarly, Moscow succeeded in positioning himself as a associated itself with Arab partners – regional powerbroker. Common energy Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt – in the interests of Russia and the regional case of Libya, by supporting General countries have facilitated their Khalifa Haftar. Despite supporting cooperation in this field. Russia and the Haftar, Moscow has built links with all West Asian region have more than 60 major players on the ground. As per cent of the world’s proven oil and tensions continue to escalate there, gas reserves, and they produce 50 per Moscow is well-positioned to play a role cent of the world’s oil and almost 40 per of mediator, particularly in a situation cent of its natural gas. Russia and Saudi Arabia have been the primary drivers when the US seems to be supporting a Russian role. Russia’s strategic behind the Organization of the interests in Libya are real (mainly Petroleum Exporting Countries energy and port access) and it is making (OPEC)+1 arrangement that has been every effort to secure its interest. involved in setting the oil prices. Russia Countries like Oman, Kuwait, and Iraq is not only a primary exporter of oil and have followed the policy of maintaining gas, it also exports significant nuclear

42 technology to the West Asian region, in the region clearly signals its intent with deals to build nuclear power plants for a long- term presence to protect its in Iran, Jordan, and Egypt and strategic assets and to gain from its discussions underway with Saudi military sales and energy cooperation. Arabia, which has an ambitious plan to Now, it has made inroads beyond Syria, build 16 nuclear reactors by 2032. Arms establishing ties with Arab and non- sales have been a key factor, driving Arab countries. Russia’s policy towards the region. Nearly fifty percent of Russian arms China sales go to this region, up from 36 per In addition to the US and Russia, China cent in 2015. Regional countries view is the most important external player in Russia as a feasible alternative source the WANA region. China’s rapid of arms supplies to the US. Egypt and economic rise and its growing trade and Iraq are major arms importers from diplomatic relations with the regional Russia. Egypt and Russia concluded a countries has made it as a major deal worth $2 billion in March 2019, international actor in regional affairs. which includes more than 20 Sukhoi Though China has eschewed any SU-35 multi-role fighter jets. Russia serious military or strategic has also signed deals with the UAE. commitment in the region, it has not Saudi Arabia and Qatar are reported to shied away from agreeing to develop be in discussion with the Kremlin to bilateral defence and military ties and purchase the advanced S-400 anti-air has increased its maritime presence in craft system. the western Indian Ocean region. Another important tool that Russia Towards the end of 2019, Russia, China possesses to enhance its presence and and Iran conducted a massive joint influence, has been the usage of its soft naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman. power through state-funded media From the Iranian point of view, this was networks like RT (formerly Russia considered a show of strength and as a Today) and Sputnik International way to assert that Iran is not isolated news agency. They continue to partner amidst heightened regional tensions. with local media outlets to enhance China though, termed the exercise as a their legitimacy, particularly driving routine drill, to enhance the operational the attention of the youth of the region. understanding in international waters A most recent Arab Youth Survey found to safeguard its maritime trade routes that 64 per cent of young Arabs see and a Chinese defence ministry official Russia as an ally, while only 41 per cent clarified that this need not be linked to say the same about the US. Moreover, the regional situation. the perception of the US as the enemy China has also spent billions of dollars has nearly doubled since 2016. In the to build and upgrade ports and naval near future, Russia will continue to facilities in the western Indian Ocean enhance its influence in the region region including in Djibouti and Oman, despite its limitations. Russia’s policy that underlines the growing Chinese

43 appetite for developing assets in the investors in the economies in the region that can be utilised for WANA region both through FDIs as safeguarding Chinese trade and well as partnership in infrastructure business interests in the Indian Ocean development projects. Chinese and the Gulf of Oman. Despite the financial commitment for growing diplomatic, political and developmental projects was estimated strategic relations, compared to the US at US$ 20 billion in 2018 with an and Russia, China has continued to additional US$ 3 billion in loans for focus on trade and economic relations. revival of the banking sector in the Arab There are, however, signs that China countries affected by conflicts. China is might be preparing to change that, and among the most important partners for this is visible from its growing forays in Gulf countries in their bid to build the western Indian Ocean as well as the infrastructure and diversify their organisation of the first security economies. Among the most important conclave on the Middle East in projects which China is involved in, are: November 2019. the construction of the Lusail stadium in Qatar for hosting the FIFA 2022 The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative World Cup, the Yanbu refinery project (BRI) has received an enthusiastic and the Harmain railway project in response in the region which sees Saudi Arabia and several port economic opportunities promised by development projects in the region the BRI. In terms of total trade with the including in the UAE, Oman, Saudi region, China has more trade with the Arabia, Egypt and Israel. WANA region than the combined total of the US and Russia. In 2019, its total The European Union (EU) trade with West Asia was estimated at US$ 236 billion, which is a minor drop The EU has been embroiled in internal from US$ 245 billion in 2018. A key problems due to the unresolved Brexit component of the bilateral trade is issue. Having finally agreed on a plan energy imports from the Persian Gulf. the problem of how it will impact trade China, like India, imports a majority of and economic ties with the Gulf its oil and gas from the region, with countries comes to the fore. Whatever Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran as the the future might hold, the EU countries leading suppliers. In addition to energy, have been significantly affected by the major commodities of trade include developments beyond their control as heavy machineries, electronic goods, far as their engagements with WANA automobiles, iron and steel, textile and are concerned. The signing of the footwear, chemicals and food and JCPOA in 2015 had brought new agricultural products, which China opportunities for the EU for business exports to WANA. and trade with Iran; however, the sudden US decision of withdrawing In addition to bilateral trade, China has from the JCPOA seriously jeopardised emerged as one of the key international the interests of the EU vis-à-vis Iran. To

44 circumvent the US sanctions and to that was used by the refugees as a keep the JCPOA alive, in January 2019, passage to Europe. Though countries the EU3 (Germany, France and UK) such as Germany have been more announced the creation of the forthcoming in allowing the influx of Instrument in Support of Trade refugees, the growing xenophobic calls Exchanges (INSTEX), a special- pushed the EU countries to enter into a purpose vehicle, to continue trading deal with Turkey to prevent the flow of with Iran. However, there is a lack of refugees. This not only led to pressure information as to the extent to which and bargaining from Turkey but also this has been effective. raises questions about the humanitarian and human rights On May 8, 2019, Iran announced that it commitments of the EU itself. will scale-down its commitments to the Nonetheless, after an agreement with JCPOA but will not completely Turkey, the EU countries were hoping withdraw from it, which kept the hopes to have resolved the situation, but in of the EU alive of finding a way out of early 2020, with the situation in Syrian the situation. However, the escalation region of Idlib worsening, Ankara in tensions throughout the year and the decided to allow the passage of Syrian killing of General Soleimani in the refugees to Europe, straining the beginning of 2020 has further blurred already fragile relations further the possibilities of keeping the nuclear between the EU and Turkey. deal alive. Soon after the escalation, Iran announced that it is partially Though politically marginal, the EU has withdrawing from the nuclear deal. robust trade ties with the WANA According to a BBC report, the region, especially the Arab Gulf statement issued after a cabinet countries and Turkey. According to meeting in Tehran said that Iran estimates, EU-WANA trade is worth an “would no longer observe limitations on average of over US$ 600 billion since its capacity for enrichment, the level of 2014-15 and despite disruptions due to enrichment, the stock of enriched regional strife, trade with GCC material, or research and countries and Turkey has shown an development.” This raises doubts about upward trend. The EU is the second- the EU’s efforts to keep the nuclear deal largest weapon supplier and aid afloat. provider to WANA, behind only the US. Further, they have significantly The other EU concern vis-à-vis the invested in the major economies WANA region is the constant flow of including Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, refugees from the countries affected by Saudi Arabia and Israel, which makes the civil wars including Syria, Iraq and them more vulnerable to rising conflicts Libya. This has led to the rise of and instability in the region. xenophobic calls for prevention of refugee influx and has caused serious internal strife and tension with Turkey

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Prognosis The European countries have remained divided on how to safeguard their In 2019, the region continued to interests, but have continued to engage grapple with problems that are either with all regional and external actors to externally created or have been assuage the situation without much accentuated due to external impact on the outcome. intervention and influence. The US remains the most important external (Meena Singh Roy is Research Fellow power whose moves in the Persian Gulf, and Coordinator, West Asia Centre, Syria, Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian IDSA) conflict continued to define the regional dynamics. However, US dominance (Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate was challenged by the growing Fellow at West Asia Centre, IDSA) influence of, and alignments between, Russia and China. China and Russia are unlikely to replace the US but their policy will be driven mainly by the desire to secure their economic interests and strategic space.

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India and the West Asian Region: Expanding Cooperation and Managing Challenges Meena Singh Roy and Lakshmi Priya

West Asia continued to be in a state of countries of the region. The year 2019 deep disarray in 2019. The region was in many ways a continuation of witnessed the second phase of ‘Arab India’s policy of cementing its strategic Spring’ with public protests in Algeria, ties to protect its economic and Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. The strategic interests in the region. These Iran-Saudi rivalry took a completely interests are mainly,free flow of different turn, being reflected in bilateral trade and investments, energy increased violence in Yemen, security, expatriate remittances, sabotaging of oil tankers in the Persian counter-radicalisation and combating Gulf, and attacks on the Saudi terrorism, and maintaining strong ARAMCO oil refinery. The “maximum relations with regional power centres pressure” policy of President Trump led despite the adversarial relations to heightened tensions between the US between them. The number of high- and Iran affecting the entire region. level visits of delegations both from The unveiling of the “Deal of the India and the countries of the region century” by the US did very little in demonstrates the success of bilateral terms of finding unacceptable solution relations. The details of some to the Palestine-Israel conflict. In Syria, important visits are given in Annexure- one noticed a new situation with the 1. Syrian government’s offensive to retake Idlib and Turkey’s increased offensive Re-invigorating Cooperation with to secure its security interests. Some of Gulf Partners the other noticeable trends in the year India has strong relations with the were the indictment of Benjamin regional countries but its core interests Netanyahu for bribery and sentencing lie in the Persian Gulf region where of Sudan’s ousted President Omar Al nearly 9 million of its citizens live and Bashir for financial irregularities. work and contribute nearly 50 percent In a region fraught with economic and of the remittances India receives social upheavals, conflicts, proxy wars annually. In addition, India imports over 60 percent of its energy needs and and uncertainties, India continued to pursue active diplomacy, building over 80 percent of its crude oil needs stronger security ties and advancing from the region. This region is one of economic partnerships with the India’s largest trading partners, with

47 bilateral trade amounting to over US investment of US$ 100 billion in areas $150 billion in 2018-19. India has of refining, energy, petrochemicals, therefore significantly enhanced its infrastructure, agriculture, minerals engagement with the Arab countries and mining, manufacturing, education, with frequent political and diplomatic and health in India. Focusing on contacts. This has resulted in a greater investment, Riyadh and New Delhi understanding and appreciation of each acknowledged the untapped potential other’s concerns and interests. India in merchandise trade as part of non-oil has prioritized the agenda of economic sector and intended to align the development and cooperation with the Kingdom’s vision 2030 with India’s Gulf countries for mutual economic flagship initiatives of ‘Make in India’, progress. There are growing synergies ‘Start-up India’, Smart cities, Clean on fighting terrorism, combating India and Digital India. radicalism and ensuring maritime security in the Arabian Sea and India and Saudi Arabia agreed to Western Indian Ocean. expedite the implementation of the joint venture west coast refinery and A key pillar of India’s engagement petrochemical project and transform during 2019 has been its enhanced the buyer-seller relationship to a focus on cooperation with Saudi Arabia strategic partnership. The two partners and the UAE while maintaining decided to set up a joint working group stronger partnerships with other on skill development, enhancing countries in the region. India re- defence cooperation and inaugurated a energized cooperation with Gulf joint naval exercise. Cooperation on countries, as Saudi crown Prince maritime security, counter-terrorism, Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz cybercrime, and peaceful use of atomic Al Saud paid his first state visit to India energy is the new focus. Prime Minister in February and conveyed his Modi visited the Kingdom in October appreciation for the Indian model of 2019 to attend the third session of the inclusiveness, pluralism and tolerance Future Investment Initiative Forum, while Prime Minister Modi welcomed discussed ways to promote security and the reforms in Saudi Arabia to bring safety of waterways and reiterated openness. The two sides agreed to rejection of interference in internal cement the existing strategic affairs of other countries. During this partnership by creating the Strategic visit, both countries signed 12 Partnership Council and welcomed the MoUs/Agreements on a number of opportunities of joint collaboration and issues. The agreements were in the investments brought out by the fields of establishment of the Strategic workshop between NITI Aayog and Partnership Council; renewable energy; Saudi Centre for International Strategic combating illicit trafficking and Partnership. MoUs and agreements on smuggling of narcotic drugs; military investment, tourism, housing, and acquisition, industries, research, international solar alliance were signed development and technology; civil as the Crown Prince announced an aviation; medical products regulations;

48 small and medium enterprises; an to invite India as a guest of honour to agreement between Foreign Service the meeting of the Organisation of Institute, and Prince Saud Al Faisal Islamic Cooperation (OIC) foreign Institute of Diplomatic Studies; Indian ministers in March despite Pakistan’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves and Stock strong objection and threat to boycott Exchanges and Payments. the event. The comprehensive strategic partnership was raised to new level India and Saudi security and defence during the visit of the UAE’s foreign cooperation have moved in new minister to India. It is to be noted that directions. Signing of the defence the UAE is the first country to cooperation agreement, the agreement participate in India’s ‘Strategic on military acquisition, industries, petroleum reserves’ programme. research, development and technology demonstrates mutual trust and Another significant event that confidence to engage each other in the cemented India’s ties with its Gulf sensitive defence sectors. Security partners was Prime Minister Modi’s cooperation has emerged as a key pillar visit to Bahrain in August 2019, which of India-Saudi bilateral relations. was the first-ever by any Indian Prime Earlier, in an interview to Saudi Minister. During his visit, PM Modi was newspaper Arab News, Modi stated, conferred the prestigious ‘The King “Asian powers like India and Saudi Hamad Order of the Renaissance’, the Arabia share similar security concerns highest honour of Bahrain. Three were in their neighborhood. In that respect, I signed during this visit in the areas of am happy that our cooperation, space technology, renewable energy particularly in the field of and culture. The visit was undertaken counterterrorism, security and to fructify collaboration between ISRO strategic issues, is progressing very and NASA, BENEFIT and NPCI for well.” Saudi Arabia has deported a launch of the RUPAY card in Bahrain number of Indians wanted back in and with the International Solar India for several crimes and terror Alliance. India expressed its strong activities. India has also condemned desire of cooperation between its the drone and missile attacks on the energy companies in conventional kingdom. exploration and development of newly- discovered oil and gas assets in During the year, India re-energised its Bahrain. Maritime security figured as ties with the UAE. The Order of Zayed, an important area of cooperation as it is the highest civil decoration of the UAE vital for the safety of sea lanes. was awarded to Prime Minister Modi in recognition of his distinguished Oman, a significant and strategic Gulf leadership for giving a big boost to partner for India, continued to draw bilateral relations between the two attention from the Indian leadership. countries. The depth of bilateral India’s Minister of External Affairs S. cooperation got reflected when the Jaishankar had a “fruitful” discussion Emirate strongly defended the decision with the Omani defence minister

49 during his visit to Oman in December. celebration of similarities and Both countries reaffirmed their differences. Some of the key events in commitment to further expand India were the Qatar Art Exhibition and “robust” defence, security and maritime the Doha International Book Fair 2019, ties. India is among Oman’s top trading where India was the Guest of Honour. partners. During 2018-19, bilateral The two countries conducted a three- trade was worth US$ 5 billion. There day naval exercise, Za’ir Al Bahr (Roar are over 7,80,000 Indian citizens in of the Sea) in November. Oman, the second-largest expatriate community in the country. In 2018, Managing Expectations of Iran India was the second-largest importer and Iraq of crude oil from Oman. India continued to manage its ties with Similarly, India and Kuwait worked Iran in the light of increasing Iran-US together to enhance economic ties. It is tensions and the growing effects of the important to note that Kuwait, with its ‘maximum pressure’ policy of the US. plan to double its investments in India In his maiden visit to Iran, Jaishankar from the current US $ 5billion by the reviewed the entire gamut of India-Iran Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), is cooperation and agreed on accelerating exploring third-country joint projects the Chabahar Project. As the Minister with New Delhi on the lines of the of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Javad Zarif India-UAE project in Ethiopia. India’s visited India twice, both countries tried Vice-President M. Venkaiah Naidu to find ways to move forward on cooperating on issues of security and proposed to host an economic forum in New Delhi to bring together investors connectivity despite the fact that India from the private sector, officials from stopped importing oil from Iran. the chambers of commerce and Adhering to its principle of strategic industry, and investment bodies from autonomy, New Delhi continued to both the countries, to discuss ways of pursue its partnership with Tehran to increasing trade and investment protect its long term economic and opportunities, during a meeting with strategic interests. the Ambassador of Kuwait Jassim Al Iraq become India’s top crude oil Najem. Deputy Foreign Minister supplier for the second consecutive Khaled Al Jarallah noted that Kuwait is year, meeting more than one-fifth of the keen on boosting relations with India, country’s oil needs in the 2018-19 fiscal and the joint political coordination year. In September, Ambassador of committee meets regularly. Iraq Falah Abdulhasan said Iraq was Qatar-India ties have generally been looking for investments by Indian associated with their strong energy companies in the oil and gas sector. cooperation, but 2019 saw the Iraq has been expecting greater strengthening of cultural ties. 2019 was involvement by India in their oil and Qatar-India Year of Culture, gas sector. In this context, New Delhi culminating in the exploration and needs to work towards increasing its

50 presence in Iraq. While circumstances the two countries got reflected when are difficult, yet, a blueprint of long- India voted in favour of Israel over a term engagement deserves greater decision to grant consultative status to attention. With the aim of developing Shahed, the Palestinian human rights closer political cooperation, Shri V. NGO in June. Netanyahu thanked Modi Muraleedharan, Minister of State for personally for India’s support and the External Affairs visited Iraq in unprecedented “historic vote”. September. During the visit, he unveiled a bust of Mahatma Gandhi at India has been consistent with its policy Sami Abdulrahman Park and addressed of de-hyphenating relations with Israel the Indian community. and Palestine. In November, India along with another 165 nations voted in Israel and Palestine: Balancing favour of the resolution titled “The right Act of the Palestinian people to self- determination” at the UN General The year 2019 witnessed cementing of Assembly's Third Committee, while the the existing strong relations between United States, Israel, Nauru, India and Israel. The leadership on Micronesia and the Marshall Islands both sides has acknowledged the voted against it, and nine countries, growing nature of strategic cooperation including Australia, Guatemala and and friendship. In PM Modi’s words the Rwanda, abstained. The resolution was bilateral relationship, “is strong and sponsored by North Korea, Egypt, eternal.” Similar views were aired by Nicaragua, Zimbabwe and Palestine. Israeli PM Netanyahu who said: “Our India reiterated its support for the ties will only strengthen in the Palestinian people, and urged “early future.”Describing India-Israel security with Israel on the eve of the cooperation as a “strategic asset” International Day of Solidarity with the President Reuven Rivlin said that Palestinian People, a United Nations- bilateral relations are at an “all-time organized observance that takes place high.”One noticed greater synergy on November 29 each year. between the two countries in the area of cyber security to safeguard their In 2018, India increased its annual financial markets, including financial assistance to the UNRWA collaboration between market four-fold, from million, and a year ago, regulators and bringing Israeli voted against the US recognition of investment in corporate bonds. It is Jerusalem as Israel’s capital at the important to note that Israel is looking UNGA. India increased the number of to Indian investments in the Tel Aviv ICCR scholarships for Palestinians stock market. Some new areas of from 50 to 100 in 2019-20. Apart from engagement were also highlighted by that, the Representative Office of India Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, which in Ramallah hosted an Iftar at the are mainly –the construction sector, Children’s SOS village in Bethlehem, new trends of connectivity and artificial organized a cycling event as part of the intelligence. The close bond between celebrations of the 150th birth

51 anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi and However, prior to that, PM Modi and celebrated the 5th International Yoga Turkish President Erdogan met on the Day. In June 2019, External Affairs sidelines of G-20 in Osaka onJuly29, Minister S. Jaishankar met with the 2019. Former External Affairs Minister, Foreign Minister of Palestine, Dr. Riad Late Sushma Swaraj made a transit halt Al Malki during the 5th Conference on at Erzurum on February19, 2019. Dr. Interaction and Confidence-Building Ibrahim Kalin, Chief Advisor and Measures in Asia (CICA) meeting at spokesperson of the President of Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Turkey and Deputy Chairman of the Foreign and Security Council, visited Turkey: An Uneasy Relationship India in April 2019. Foreign Office India-Turkey ties hit rough weather as Consultations (FOCs) at Secretary-level Ankara was seen cozying up to Pakistan were held in New Delhi in May and the while New Delhi cemented its ties with 4thmeeting of the Joint Working Group three of Ankara’s close neighbours and on Counter-terrorism was held in strong rivals –Cyprus, Armenia and Ankara in July 2019. In May Ms. Greece – at the UNGA in September. Srividya of Invest-India made a Turkey was among four countries along presentation on investment with China, Pakistan and Malaysia that opportunities in India to major Turkish internationalised the Kashmir issue at companies. India participated as a the gathering of the world leaders in Focus Country with 80 companies in New York. Raveesh Kumar, spokesman the 88th Izmir International Fair 2019 for the Indian External Affairs held at Izmir in September for the Ministry, advised Turkey to get a second time. proper understanding of the situation A Festival of India in Turkey called before making a statement on India’s “India along Bosphorus” was held in internal matter, whereas the Speaker of March-April, showcasing Indian dance, the Turkish Parliament, Mustafa music, food and fashion in major cities Şentop, said that standing with in Turkey and the second edition of the Pakistan on the Kashmir issue is festival was planned to be held in Turkey’s duty. It surfaced in the media March-April 2020. In addition, several that India is going to put on hold an events were organized for the Indian Navy contract with a Turkish celebration of the 150th birth company estimated to be worth US$2.3 anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi. The billion and the Indian government is Mission organized the ‘Glimpses of planning to cut imports of oil and steel India Tagore Painting Competition’ for products from Turkey. PM Modi school children of Turkey in four cities cancelled his visit to Turkey and the in April. Indigo has started daily flights Indian government asked its citizens from New Delhi and Mumbai to visiting Turkey to “exercise extreme Istanbul since March, and in caution” while visiting the country. September, the Trade organized the “Source India” exhibition in Turkey which is a trade show-cum-BSM

52 (Buyer-Seller Meet) with a focus on lab for 32 students, along with the cost-effective promotion of Indian services of three IT experts for a period exporters in Turkey to facilitate direct of one year, and training of three Syrian access to potential buyers and master trainers in India. A draft MoU influential decision makers. President for the NextGen CEIT, suggested by Erdogan’s new policy approach towards India has already been approved by the India and his statements on Kashmir Syrian side. The Syrian side is keen on are likely to impact negatively on getting this Centre operational at the bilateral ties in future. earliest. Under the “Study in India” scholarship programme of the Opening New Areas of Government of India, 393 Syrian Cooperation with the WANA students were placed in several Indian Region Universities for Undergraduate, India continued to forge greater Masters and PhD programmes during defence, security and economic ties the academic year 2018-19, and another with most of the countries in the WANA 600 scholarship slots have been region, both through formal and allotted for the academic year 2019-20. informal mechanisms. This region is a The ICCR extended an invitation to primary source of rock phosphates and noted Syrian Academic and Head of the its by-products, and potash used in Higher Education Cell of the Ruling fertilizers. India sources over 80% of its Baath Party to visit India in November rock phosphate requirement from 2019 under the Distinguished Visitors’ countries in this region. This region is Programme. India is planning a also rich in minerals. India intensified ministerial-level joint commission its efforts to secure its energy interests. meeting with war-torn Syria in Without getting militarily involved in Damascus in the near future, and the hotspots, India pursued its policy of intends to offer a new line of credit to capacity-building and reaching out to assist Syria in its rebuilding process. the common people of the countries. India is also eyeing a wider counterterrorism partnership and As far as India’s relations with Syria are stronger information-sharing concerned, Secretary, met with the mechanism, as Syria has experience in Syrian leadership including the Prime fighting the ISIS. Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. This visit culminated India’s contribution as part of the UN in fruitful discussions on expanding Peacekeeping mission was much bilateral relations in various fields. The appreciated and acknowledged. A case Indian side offered to resume the India- in point is that of Indian peacekeeper Syria Centre of Excellence in IT with Sergeant Ramesh Singh, who was up-gradation to a NextGen Centre of deployed with the UN Interim Force in Excellence in IT. India will be Lebanon (UNIFIL) and lost his life in sponsoring the necessary equipment line of duty. He has been honoured for for two classes of 20 students each, a his dedication and commitment by the UNIFIL Force Commander Stefano Del

53 Col and the Lebanese Army “in (CII).Egypt’s Minister of Agriculture recognition for his dedication and and Land Reclamation, Ezz el-Din Abu- commitment”. Steit visited India to attend the COP14 UN Convention to combat New Delhi made every effort to enhance desertification in September. cooperation with Lebanon. The Advanced Construction Technology To promote trade and economic ties Services (ACTS), a geotechnical between the two countries, the India- engineering, materials testing, and Egypt Joint Trade Committee meeting consulting firm, has acquired a 51 per was held in New Delhi in March 2019. cent stake in Pune-based CQRA and During the year 2019-20, 110 ITEC Durocrete Engineering Services for an scholarships were availed by Egyptian undisclosed amount. Khaled Awad, officials, the Foreign Service Institute Chairman, ACTS, said that the demand (FSI) organized a special course for for testing the quality of bridges, roads young Egyptian diplomats in June, and and infrastructure being built in India an MoU between National Sugar is increasing at a tremendous pace and Institute (NSI) Kanpur (India) and the company would bring its overseas Sugar Technology Research Institute expertise to India. (STRI) Assuit, Egypt was signed in November 2019, to provide a India's commitment to its ties with framework for collaboration in Egypt got reflected in many ways – research, development, training and high-level visits, formal interactions exchange of experts. during various international events, defence and security cooperation. As a With an aim to give a push to cultural part of 150th Birth Anniversary of diplomacy, many events were held Mahatma Gandhi and under the ‘India throughout the year. The 25th Edition initiative, a Jaipur Foot Artificial Limb of Glimpses of India was held in Fitment Camp was organized at Assuit October, the 7th edition of India by the in May-June 2019. During the Camp, Nile, the annual Indian cultural festival, 550 artificial limbs were provided to was held in March 2019, and the 5th 500 beneficiaries. edition of International Day of Yoga was celebrated in Cairo in June. The The Minister of State (IC) for Civil Egyptian Embassy organized the ‘Egypt Aviation, Housing and Urban Affairs by Ganga’ Festival in India, a series of and Minister of State for Commerce events were organized to commemorate and Industry, Shri Hardeep Singh Puri the 150th birth anniversary of visited Egypt in November 2019. He Mahatma Gandhi, like organizing the met with Egypt’s Minister of Trade & international day of non-violence, Industry and delivered the Keynote releasing a commemorative stamp on Address at the inaugural session of the Mahatma Gandhi, and an ICCR- “Regional Conclave on India-West Asia sponsored Indian folk dance group and North Africa (WANA)” organized from the Bundeli Lok Nritya Natya Kala by Confederation of Indian Industry

54 Parishad and the Kalbelia Dance troupe a project that aims to create a Tunisian- visited Egypt. Indian centre for the renewal of ICTs in the Ghazala technology park and to The developmental partnership with study ways to strengthen Tunisian- Tunisia was re-energised by advancing Indian cooperation in the areas of cooperation in space, culture and advanced technologies and support for education. The MoU between India and start-ups. In May 2019, the first-ever Tunisia on Cooperation in the Gandhi Udyan was inaugurated in Exploration and Use of Outer space for Riadh Ennasr (Ariana governorate), as Peaceful Purposes was signed at part of the city's initiative to build Bengaluru, India on June 11, 2019. This partnership with India in various agreement will enable cooperation in cultural, social and environmental space science, technology and fields. The cultural cooperation applications including areas, such as between the two countries was remote sensing of the earth; satellite enhanced by organizing many cultural communication and satellite-based events in India and Tunisia. More than navigation; Space science and ten events were conducted in more than planetary exploration, use of spacecraft five cities in and outside Tunisia. and space systems and ground systems and application of space technology. India expanded its diplomatic outreach The Agreement would lead to the to Morocco in 2019. Former Foreign setting up of a Joint Working Group, Minister Late Sushma Swaraj visited drawing members from Department of Morocco for the first time in February Space/ISRO, India and the National to build a new partnership with the Centre for Cartography and Remote North African country. During the visit, Sensing, Tunisia which will further foreign ministers of both the countries work out the plan of action including discussed ways to enhance bilateral the time-frame and the means of cooperation in a number of areas, implementing this MoU. India including defence and security, continued its cooperation under its counter-terrorism, trade and ITEC programme; 125 ITEC slots were investment. MoUs for setting up of a utilized until the end of March 2019– Joint Working Group on counter the highest ever by Tunisia – and 18 terrorism was inked. This was to IAFS training slots. A group of 22 develop a comprehensive approach to senior Tunisian administrators combat terrorism including cross- underwent a specially-tailored training border terrorism, misuse of the internet programme on e-governance and cyber including social media by terror security at the Indian Institute of Public entities, terrorist financing, and Administration, New Delhi from April recruitment of members of terrorist 15-26, 2019. groups. Additionally, cooperation in human settlement, youth matters and A 3-member delegation headed by JS reciprocal facilitation of procedures for (DPA-II) visited Tunisia in May 2019 to issue of Business Visas was discussed. lay the groundwork for the launching of During this visit the allocation of ITEC

55 slots for Morocco was raised from 40 to The MoU between India and Morocco 75. Morocco has shown keen interest to to facilitate Mutual Recognition of utilize FSI training offered for foreign Academic Qualifications was signed on diplomats. Diplomats from Morocco January 22, 2019. The MoU will regularly attend PCFD courses at FSI. A deepen, enhance and strengthen the Special two-week training at FSI for 16 cooperation between India and Moroccan diplomats was organized Morocco in the field of Education and from April 15-27, 2019. Human Resource Development. The collaboration in the field of education To open new vistas of cooperation in through this MoU will enable trade, digital economy, education, experience-sharing and thereby training, shipbuilding and artificial improve the platform to cater to the intelligence in vocational training, needs of various target groups. Also, the many ministerial visits from Morocco collaboration is expected to increase took place during the year. Mrs. the inflow of Moroccan students to RakiyaEddarhem, Secretary of State in- India under the Study in India charge of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Programme. Industry, Investment, Trade and Digital Economy led the Moroccan The Union Cabinet chaired by Prime delegation in the 9th edition of Vibrant Minister has approved Gujarat Global Summit (VG 2019) in the MoU between India and Morocco Gandhinagar (January14-20, 2019). for developing, promoting and Morocco was a Partner Country in strengthening mutual cooperation Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2019. between the judiciaries of the two On March20, 2019, the VIth India countries. The approval will promote Morocco Joint Commission Meeting cooperation between India and (JCM) was convened in New Delhi. In Morocco in judicial and other legal February 2019, the Partnership areas and enable exchange of Agreement in the field of vocational knowledge in infrastructure and training between the Office of information technology. The aforesaid Vocational Training and Employment developments clearly signify depth and Promotion (OFPPT) of the Kingdom of growth in bilateral relations between Morocco and National Skill the two countries. Development Corporation (NSDC) India was signed. Both the countries are The year 2019 witnessed growing also cooperating in the field of Water momentum of bilateral cooperation Resources under the JWG constituted with not only the Gulf region but also in July 2018. So far two meeting have recorded the opening of new areas of been held. Additionally, both the cooperation with the countries of countries are exploring possibilities for WANA region. The uniqueness of establishing India-Morocco India’s engagement has been the cooperation in military telemedicine. response it has received from these countries. Gulf countries have responded positively to New Delhi’s

56 overtures for enhanced strategic 3. PM’s visit to Bahrain, August 24- cooperation. While the present 25: First ever visit by an Indian PM to momentum of engagement with the the kingdom. ‘The King Hamad Order region is likely to continue, the need is of the Renaissance’, the highest honor to prepare for the future threats and of Bahrain. MoUs were signed on challenges – not only security but collaboration between ISRO, NPCI for economic as well. launch of Rupay Card in Bahrain and Bahrain joined the International Solar Annexure -1 Alliance. India-WANA: Important 4. EAM’s visit to Oman, December Bilateral Visits in 2019 23-25: Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar had a fruitful discussion 1. PM’s visit to Saudi Arabia, with the Omani counterpart and October 28-29: PM visited the Defence Minister during his visit. The kingdom in October and met with the two countries reaffirmed their leadership and exchanged views and commitment to further expand robust also attended the 3rd Future bilateral, especially defense, security Investment Initiative Forum (Davos in and maritime ties. the Desert). The leadership discussed 5. EAM’s visit to Iran, December 22- ways to promote security and safety of 23: In his maiden visit to Iran, External waterways and reiterated rejection of Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reviewed interference in internal affairs of other the entire gamut of India-Iran countries. MoUs were signed in energy, cooperation and agreed on accelerating civil aviation, security cooperation, the Chabahar Project. defense, launch of RupayCard and 1. EAM’s visit to UAE, February 28- regulation of medical products. March 1: Visit by Late Smt. Sushma 2. PM’s visit to UAE, August 23-24: Swaraj to attend the OIC Foreign PM met with Crown Prince of Abu Minister meeting on the invitation of Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed and UAE as the “Guest of Honour” to received “the Order of Zayed, the address the Inaugural Plenary. highest civil decoration of the UAE 2. Visit of UAE Foreign Minister which was conferred earlier in April Abdullah bin Zayed, July 7-9: 2019 in recognition of the “Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, distinguished leadership of Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister Modi for giving a big boost to International Cooperation of the bilateral relations between the two , is paying an countries. The award in the name of official visit to India from July 7-9, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the 2019. He will be accompanied by a founding father of the UAE, acquires senior-level delegation. During the special significance as it was awarded visit, His Highness Sheikh Abdullah to Prime Minister Modi in the year of will hold bilateral talks with External the birth centenary of Sheikh Zayed. Affairs Minister. He will also call on Prime Minister.”

57 3. Visit of Iranian Foreign Minister 6. Visit by Algerian Foreign Javad Zarif, May 13-14: Second visit Minister Abdelkader Messahel, in the year in the wake of the US January 30-February 1: During his economic sanctions on Iran, especially visit, he held bilateral discussions with on its oil sector. Late Smt. Sushma Swaraj, then 4. Visit of Saudi Minister of State for External Affairs Minister on a wide Foreign Affairs, Adel Al Jubeir, range of issues on how to further March 11: Acquired significance in the deepen relations between India and light of the heightened tensions Algeria that include defence and between India and Pakistan over the security, fertilizers, Space cooperation, terror attack in Pulwama and India’s Counter Terrorism, Education, ITEC air strikes in Balakot. etc. They also discussed regional and 5. First State Visit of Saudi Crown multilateral issues of mutual interest. Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 7. Visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, January 7-9: Bilateral February 19-20: The Crown Prince visit amidst Iran’s effort to minimize who is also deputy Prime Minister and impact of US sanctions. Defense Minister paid his first visit to India. He was accompanied by a high- Annexure Source: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India level delegation, including Ministers,

senior officials and leading Saudi businessmen. During the visit, the (Meena Singh Roy is Research Fellow Crown Prince called on Hon’ble and Coordinator, West Asia Centre, President and Hon’ble Vice President, IDSA) and held bilateral talks with the PM on wide range of issues of mutual interest. (Lakshmi Priya is Research Analyst at West Asia Centre, IDSA)

58 The West Asian Region: In Search of Peace and Stability Editorial Team

The situation in the West Asian region annual meetings, the Saudi-Qatari continues to remain fluid. A close look differences still remain a roadblock. at the key developments that took place in 2019 indicates that the region is Throughout the year, the political and embroiled in prolonged political security situation in Yemen remained instability, deteriorating regional grim. Continued military operations security and continuously worsening and violence has resulted in one of the humanitarian crisis. The efforts to largest humanitarian crises in the reach a negotiated settlement have not world. Parties to the conflict have killed been successful. Violence perpetrated and injured thousands of Yemeni by the militia, terrorist organizations civilians. Despite multiple attempts by and other armed groups has been a the UN to broker a ceasefire, the parties hindrance in the way of achieving any themselves continue to hinder the results by means of dialogue. In the diplomatic process. Both the parties midst of such a grim situation, the keep walking back and forth on their prospects of peace and stability in the statements. Saudi Arabia has been the region remain elusive. key player leading the military coalition against the Houthis. In the south of the Regional Dynamics: Prognosis country, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is demanding The geopolitics in the Gulf region is statehood, is supported by the UAE. dominated by the continuing tension The role of these two neighbouring between Saudi Arabia and Iran. No countries in Yemen will be a key factor political or diplomatic effort has been in the stability of the country. Taking initiated by either of them to hold any advantage of the ongoing crisis, the Al talks in order to reach any Qaeda and ISIS have intensified their understanding. The US-Iran tension activities in Yemen. A centralized continues to worsen and has negatively military operation against the terrorist affected regional security and stability groups is severely lacking. Yemen’s in the Persian Gulf. The rising tensions political instability, civil war and the were reflected in a number of attacks on activities of terrorist organizations are tankers in the waters surrounding the impediments in restoring normalcy in Arabian Peninsula. Such tanker wars the country. can recur in the future if the issues remain unaddressed. The GCC still Even after eight years of violent remains a divided house. Mediation conflict, the Syrian civil war does not efforts by Kuwait and Oman have not show any sign of abating. The situation produced any visible results. Though has become more complicated because the organization has been holding its of the involvement of regional and extra-regional players in the conflict.

59 While Russia and Iran continue to Therefore, popular unrest might support the Syrian President Bashar Al continue and even cause major Assad, the US and Turkey are political, economic and security supporting the rebel forces. Israel is challenges in the years ahead. The US- also supporting the US’ anti-Iran stance Iran and Israel-Iran rivalry might in Syria by conducting air strikes on continue to make Iraq and Lebanon the Iranian outposts. It does not look likely arena for waging their campaigns in the that the fighting in Syria will end future. Amid this general mayhem, anytime soon, as the big powers there is every likelihood for more struggle to gain influence in the sectarian militias and violent non-state country. groups, even ISIS, to rear their ugly heads in the future. This grim prognosis The prognosis for Libya also remains accentuates the need for global powers grim as the country’s civil war and and regional actors to address the violence continue to mar any efforts socio-economic and political situation towards restoring peace and stability. in Iraq and the Levant to avoid a major The proposed parliamentary elections, conflagration in West Asia in the which could have been an opportunity months ahead. to establish order in the war-ravaged country, could not be held due to Turkey is going through a critical time continuing violence. The political in its modern history. The factions have not been able to reach a consciousness about the past with a consensus, and as a result, the role desire for revival is at its peak both at played by the extra-regional powers the social as well as political levels. becomes decisive. The efforts of UN to President Erdogan is the most popular broker a peace deal have been and charismatic leader to have taken obstructed by continuous and the mantle of the country after Kemal unregulated violence by the parties Ataturk. He has used his popularity to concerned. While the political factions establish himself as an undisputable and their armies and militias engage leader in the country and has used both with each other, the ISIS is taking hard and soft power to project Turkish advantage of the situation and has pre-eminence in the global and regional strengthened its stronghold in the order. At the same time, he wants to be country. The ISIS has already launched recognized as a great modern Muslim attacks on a number of targets and may leader. Nonetheless, growing continue to take advantage of the international criticism about throttling existing chaos in the country. of human rights and press freedom, regional pushback by leading Arab Countries like Iraq, Lebanon and states, especially in the Gulf, and Jordan are witnessing popular increasing domestic opposition poses discontent because of the prevailing serious domestic challenges for economic situation in these countries. Erdogan. The problem becomes In the wake of severed headwinds manifold given the regional geopolitical facing the global economy, it might be schism and Turkey’s complicated difficult for Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan relations with world powers, especially to replenish the national coffers and the US, as well as important members create jobs for the discontented masses.

60 of the G20 including Saudi Arabia and already gained some momentum and India. needs a push. Yoga and Ayurveda are India’s new currency in the world and India: Re-shaping its Policy much appreciated. Education, training Approach and youth exchange programmes merit WANA region has for the past century more attention. been the theatre for geopolitical rivalry Equally important would be to get into for global powers. Despite the changes areas of cooperation like food security in international order and the rise and and disaster management. Since energy decline of global powers, WANA security and trade with the region form continues to be an attraction for power the key element of India’s relationship play among those wanting to maintain with the region, innovative ways their hegemony and those challenging acceptable to both sides need to be the status quo. The regional dynamics worked out. Joint manufacturing and look extremely complex at this stage cooperation in third countries could be but are expected to become more the future model of India’s engagement chaotic and complex with a plethora of with WANA. To secure its security regional players hedging their bets with interests, deeper and stronger multiple external players. partnerships on counter-radicalism Undoubtedly, the US, China, Russia as and combating the threat of terrorism well as the EU will be playing a major need to be built. The active diplomacy role in shaping the future of the region. pursued by Prime Minister Modi and In this era of new strategic competition, his ability to manage ties with Iran, India will have to be watchful and Saudi Arabia and Israel would demand hedge its bets accordingly, based on greater attention to sustain these ties in both safeguarding its immediate future. The region is still confronted concerns and the long-term interests. with many security and economic Given its economic and strategic challenges; in such a situation, India interests in the region, India will have will have to utilize its resources and to craft and re-shape its policy by taking capacity to explore economic advantage of its positive image as opportunities in countries like Iraq, compared to Russia, China and the US. Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco India has much appeal in the region on apart from its existing strong Gulf multiple fronts, its capacity to deliver in partners. In the coming years, the the areas of space, cyber security, region might be witness to many new information technology, and threats and challenges, but India, pharmaceuticals is immense. At the through its smart and soft policy same time, India’s soft -power presence approach, should try to build offers enormous potential. Cultural comprehensive partnerships with all diplomacy should find priority in the countries by converting every challenge overall formulation of New Delhi’s into an opportunity. policy towards the region. This has

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