Vol 2 Issue 6 November-December 2019 Special Issue: West Asia in 2019 West Asia Watch Trends & Analysis West Asia Centre Editor: lEditorial Dr Meena Singh Roy lKey Developments in the West Asian Region Editorial Team Editorial Coordinator lConflict Zones: Syria, Yemen and Libya Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Nagapushpa Devendra and Paulami Sanyal lIsrael-Arab Relations: More Intractable than Ever Adil Rasheed and Jatin Kumar lExternal Powers and WANA: The US, Russia and China Editorial Team: Meena Singh Roy and Md. Muddassir Quamar Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan l Dr Adil Rasheed India and the West Asian Region: Expanding Cooperation and Managing Challenges Dr Md Muddassir Quamar Meena Singh Roy and Lakshmi Priya lThe West Asian Region: In Search of Peace and Stability Editorial Team Copy Editor: Vivek Kaushik West Asia Centre Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt, New Delhi – 110 010 Tel. (91-11)2671 7983, Fax: (91-11)2615 4191 Website: http://www.idsa.in EDITORIAL West Asia in 2019: Trends and Analysis The geopolitical situation in the West Asian region continued to remain in a flux during 2019 as well. A critical analysis of the key developments that unfolded during the year indicates that the devastating civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen continue to deteriorate amidst growing sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions. The region witnessed the worst humanitarian crisis as a result of violence in Yemen. A power struggle among the key regional stakeholders has complicated the regional security situation. The increasing tensions between Iran and United States as well as the attacks on the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the killing of Qassem Soleimani in early January 2020, raised fears of escalation. Surprisingly, the efforts of the UN and other international agencies have been ineffective, as parties to the conflict remain obdurate in their approach. The competing interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran intensified leading to greater uncertainty in the region, complicating the already deteriorating regional security situation. Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco were exposed to multiple political, economic and security challenges.Taking advantage of the prevailing chaos, several terrorist and extremist groups have entrenched themselves in the region. Violence perpetrated by the militia, terrorist organizations and other armed groups has been a hindrance in the way of achieving any results by means of dialogue. A wave of public protests in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq reveals the poor governance and growing discontent amongst the people given the deteriorating economic situation in these countries. In the midst of such a grim situation, the prospects of peace and stability remain elusive. What is worrisome to see, is the ongoing uncertainty that has undermined West Asia and North Africa’s economic progress. The region’s economic growth is now almost half of what it was before the Arab unrest began in 2011. Today, WANA has one of the world’s highest unemployment rates as well as the slowest GDP per capita growth. The economic projections of this region continue to remain grim. In the light of these developments, India followed the policy of robust expansion and deepening of its engagement with the WANA region through its active diplomacy under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. The current Special Issue captures the key trends of 2019. The write-ups provide an in-depth analysis of the major developments in the WANA region, covering various dimensions of the problems, challenges and future trends. In addition, the role of the great powers – Russia, the US, China and the EU – is examined. The Issue also looks at India’s engagement with the region in the light of current challenges of great significance that are still unfolding in the region. 1 Key Developments in the West Asian Region Editorial Team Iran traders and masses alike. However, the November protests were marked by the th In 2019, Iran celebrated the 40 presence of violence, with protestors anniversary of Islamic Revolution. setting fire to, looting, and vandalizing Broadly speaking, Iran witnessed public institutions, including banks, gas severe challenges both internal and stations, and even department stores. external. Even though the external The major part of the protests took issues dominated the discourse, the place after November 15, after the domestic challenges were equally hiked-fuel prices came into effect. The consequential. US-Iran tensions plan provisioned for a rationing scheme increased significantly, leading to a and a slashing of fuel subsidies, causing situation of war in the Persian Gulf. The the prices to rise exponentially. The Trump administration continued with proposed plan was agreed to by the its maximum pressure policy on Iran. Supreme Council of Economic In response to the US policy, Iran Coordination, which comprises continued its defence strategy President Hassan Rouhani, judiciary throughout 2019 of using its proxy chief Ebrahim Raisi, and the Speaker of networks in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Parliament, Ali Larijani. The National Syria. In December 2019, Iran- backed Iranian Oil Products Distribution Iraqi militias attacked the US embassy Company (NIOPDC) issued a in Iraq. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for statement, which led to a phenomenal using its proxy in Yemen for attack on increase of 50 per cent in the price of a its oil installation and also on tankers in litre of gasoline to 15,000 Rials (from the Persian Gulf. Regionally, the Saudi- an earlier 10,000 Rials). This was Iran rivalry created a new situation in complemented by a monthly limit of 60 Yemen and escalated tensions. litres of fuel. Above it, additional Internal Developments and Iran’s purchases would cost 30,000 Rials per Responses litre. The state-affiliated media Mehr News Agency reported, citing a security Internally, Iran confronted the agency report, around 100 banks and 57 agitation and protests amidst the shops were set ablaze or pillaged. The mounting sanctions from the US, which protests remained widespread in were driven primarily by the hike in fuel Khuzestan, Tehran, Fars, and Kerman prices. The protests were similar to provinces. The government was quick those in December 2018, as the similar to draw a distinction between the civil grievances were raised, such as protestors and violent increasing prices of food and fuel and rioters/hooligans. By Iranian accounts, economic hardships identified by the looting and vandalizing were 2 carried out by miscreants, fuelled and the Sunni Muslim separatist group, coordinated by foreign forces. As a Jaish Al Adl. In other developments, in result, the Iranian security forces and October, Iran allowed the entry of authorities were forced to shut down women into the stadium for the FIFA the internet and respond with brutal World Cup qualifier match, the first force against the rioters. However, the time since 1979. violent protests were followed by anti- protest rallies in cities of Yazd, Karaj, On the economic front, the challenges Kermanshah, Tehran, Zanjan, Arak, were extreme as the Iranian economy Ardabil and Tabriz. The protests suffered most since the Trump erupted again in January 2020, after administration reintroduced sanctions. General Staff of Iran Armed Forces That said, it would appear that Iran’s acknowledged shooting down of the economy is going to wriggle out of the Ukrainian airliner by mistake, killing all pressure of re-imposed sanctions, since 176 aboard (including 82 Iranians). the country has started adjusting to new Afterwards, the major cities observed sanctions. The Global Economic massive protests, which primarily Prospects report by the World Bank, comprised students and were largely published in January 2020, estimates a instigated in universities, before -8.7 per cent contraction in the Iranian spreading to cities like Tehran and economy. Additionally, the report Isfahan. A few major slogans during the forecasts the Iranian GDP to grow at protests were “Clerics get lost!” and zero per cent in 2020 and at one per “Death to the liars.” Given the severity cent in 2021, illustrating a recovery and of the protests, there were widespread adjustment to the sanctions regime. In discussions concerning the casualties the international market, the Rial and injuries. There was large a variance fluctuated around 42,000 against the in numbers of reported causalities. US dollar. The Economic Intelligence Amnesty International reported at least Unit (EIU) forecasts the Rial to 304 killings in mid-December, which depreciate even further touching the authorities denied and accused around 55,000 in 2020. In mid-2019, Amnesty International of spreading the inflation climbed to more than 50 misinformation. A special report by per cent, which later decreased to 30 Reuters placed the number as high as per cent in late 2019. The Iranian 1,500 deaths, citing three unnamed Statistical Centre (ISC), on the other Iranian interior ministry officials. The hand, provided the national inflation authorities are yet to come out with the rate observed in May-June as 37.6 per cent, which scaled to 40.0 per cent in figures of the death toll. Moreover, in February, a terrorist attack killed 27 November-December. and wounded 13 members of Iran's elite Confronted with internal challenges, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps the country’s Supreme Leader, (IRGC) near Zahedan in Sistan- Ayatollah Khamenei responded in the Baluchistan Province, in South-eastern speech delivered on November 19, Iran. The responsibility was claimed by 3 2019, in a meeting with a number of Nuclear Deal and External Ties producers, entrepreneurs and economic activists by offering a strategy One of the key issues central to Tehran’s to manage the impact of sanctions on external and internal policy was the Iranian economy. He said that “….our Nuclear Deal, also known as the Joint main strategy is to immunize the Comprehensive Plan of Action economy against the sanctions.