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Associations Between Climate Change and Natural Systems in Australia

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Associations Between Climate Change and Natural Systems in Australia ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL SYSTEMS IN AUSTRALIA BY LYNDA E. CHAMBERS Favoring a national approach to a pressing worldwide scientific issue, Australian scientists have commenced a project to learn more about the effects of climate change on their continent's species and natural systems. lobal surface air temperatures have risen approxi- been associated with changes in many physical and mately 0.6°C since the mid-nineteenth century, and biological systems around the globe, including ac- Gthe magnitude of this warming is the largest record- celerated glacial retreat, tree line movements, the ed in any century over the last 1000 years (Houghton et al. lengthening of growing seasons, and alterations in 2001). Consistent with global trends, Australia's average the phenology (timing) of breeding, migration, and temperature increased 0.7°C from 1910 to 1999, with the flowering of many species (Hughes 2000; Sparks et al. largest increases occurring since about 1950 (Collins et al. 2002; Sparks and Smithers 2002; Walther et al. 2002; 2000; Nicholls 2003). Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Root et al. 2003). Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in the This renewed interest has occurred for a number of use of natural systems as indicators of climate change, reasons. First, many natural systems have been shown with evidence mounting that the anomalously high to be very sensitive to changes in climate (Menzel 2002; temperatures seen in the twentieth century have already Sparks and Smithers 2002). Many plant and animal species respond to changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity, sunshine, and other climate variables. This AFFILIATIONS: CHAMBERS—Bureau of Meteorology Research makes them valuable indicators of combined changes Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia in the climate system, through their integration of the CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Lynda E. Chambers, Bureau various climate elements (Menzel 2002). of Meteorology Research Centre, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia Second, changes in natural systems, such as al- E-mail: [email protected] terations in the timing of bird migration or in the flowering of plant species, are often easier for the The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the general public to relate to than, say, a 0.6°C rise in table of contents. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-2-20I global temperature (Menzel 2002; Sparks and Menzel 2002). In addition, such changes are often seen in In final form 22 September 2005 ©2006 American Meteorological Society "their backyard," making the climate-change issues more relevant and pressing, with the added benefit AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2006 BATft | 201 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 09:51 AM UTC of increasing motivation and the likelihood of in- STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE IN AUSTRALIA. volvement in climate-change indicator monitoring In the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovern- programs (Sparks and Smithers 2002). mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; McCarthy Third, from an environmental management per- et al. 2001), figures and tables illustrated global loca- spective, it is important to determine the impact of tions where studies of natural process or species had climate change on the environment, with the informa- been associated with regional temperature change. tion obtained supporting policy development and fur- Despite many studies being listed for the Northern ther monitoring used to assess policy effectiveness. Hemisphere, there were very few studies listed for the TABLE 1. Observed changes in Australia's natural systems associated with changes in the climate. There are no glaciers on mainland Australia. Region Natural system change Reference Glaciers, snow cover/melt Snowy Mountains, southeastern 30% reduction in snow cover over the last Green (2003) Australia 45 years. Earlier ice breakup at Blue Lake; two- Green (2003) month difference in date in past 30 years. Heard Island, Australian Glacial retreat; approx 35 km2 of new ter- Bergstrom (2003) sub-Antarctic rain exposed between 1947 and 2000. Vegetation Australia Increase in woody biomass, partial link to Bowman et al. (2001) increased atmospheric C02. Subalpine eastern Australia Encroachment by snow gum Eucalyptus Reviewed in Hughes (2003) pauciflora into subalpine grasslands at higher elevations. Northern Australia Increased forest coverage and expansion Reviewed in Hughes (2003) of rain forest, at expense of eucalypt forest and grasslands, linked to rainfall changes. Coastal Australia Landward transgression of mangroves, Reviewed in Hughes (2003) possibly related to sea level rise and altered rainfall patterns. Southeastern Australia Shifts in flowering dates in four perennial Keatley et al. (2006, manuscript species, ranging from 0 to 46 days later submitted to Global Change Biol.) over a 20-year period. Changes in flowering dates of 56 species Keatley and Hudson (2005) of Australian plants, over 22 years; 24 spe- cies had mean advancement of 13.6 days; remaining species had mean flowering of 20.8 days later. Heard Island, Australian Changes in plant communities, e.g., native Bergstrom (2003) sub-Antarctic creeping herb outcompeting and overgrow- ing the dominant plant species, a cushion plant. Invertebrates Southeastern Australia Change in genetic constitution of Drosophila, Umina et al. (2005) equivalent to a 4°-lat shift. Amphibians and reptiles South Australia Changes in mating behavior of sleepy lizards Bull and Burzacott (2003) Tiliqua rugosa. Warmer, drier winters lead- ing to earlier pairings. 202 I BAITS- FEBRUARY 2006 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 09:51 AM UTC Southern Hemisphere, and none for the Australian ally predictable and large scale, and increasing region, other than a glacier in New Zealand. daylight and temperature during spring is a major Australia contains a high proportion of endemic factor in initiating breeding (Frith 1982; Kingsford species, which have already adapted to a highly and Norman 2002). In Australia, massive waterbird variable climate system (McCarthy et al. 2001). movements are often erratic in timing and di- We therefore need to exercise some care when us- rection, and the timing of breeding seasons, for ing Northern Hemisphere climate impact results many species, is variable (Frith 1982; Briggs 1992; and projecting them onto Australian species. Kingsford and Norman 2002). The movement and breeding in waterbirds is one Limited progress has been made since the 2001 example. In the temperate regions of Europe and IPCC report. Although not exhaustive, Table 1 North America, migration of waterbirds is gener- illustrates recent knowledge gains associated with TABLE 1. Continued. Region Natural system change Reference Birds Snowy Mountains, southeastern Earlier arrival of migratory birds; seven Reviewed in Chambers et al. Australia species arriving at least one month earlier (2005); Green (2003) in I980s-90s than in the 1970s. Arrival and timing of breeding in Richard's Norment and Green (2004) pipit Anthus novaeseelandiae related to snow cover; earlier arrivals corresponding to years of earlier snowmelt. Australia Range shifts. Arid and semiarid species Reviewed in Chambers et al. (2005) moving toward more temperate regions; poleward shifts; southern range expansions. Western Australia Reduced productivity in blue-breasted Reviewed in Chambers et al. (2005) fairy wren Malurus pulcherrimus, related to reduced rainfall in southwestern Australia. Tropical seabirds extending ranges south- Reviewed in Chambers et al. (2005) ward. Southern, high-latitude, cool-water seabirds extending breeding seasons. Changes in arrival and departure dates Chambers (2005) of birds in semiarid regions; overall trend toward earlier arrivals and departures. Great Barrier Reef Reduced reproductive success in wedge- Reviewed in Chambers et al. (2005) tailed shearwaters Puffinus pacificus associ- ated with high sea-surface temperatures. Heard Island, Australian Population increases in black-browed Reviewed in Chambers et al. (2005) sub-Antarctic albatross Diomedea melanophris and king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus. Mammals Eastern Australia Poleward range shifts in grey-headed and Tidemann (1999) black flying foxes. Snowy Mountains, southeastern Increased penetration of feral mammals Green and Pickering (2002) Australia into alpine and subalpine areas. Prolonged winter presence of browsing macropods; both attributed to reduced snow cover. Heard Island, Australian sub-Antarctic Population increase in fur seals Arctocepha- Budd(2000) lous gazella. Macquarie Island, Australian Rats moving into upland herb fields and Bergstrom (2003) sub-Antarctic breeding more often. AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY FEBRUARY 2006 BAflS" | 203 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 09:51 AM UTC climate change impacts on Australia's natural systems. sources, such as local garden management techniques Many of these studies give a consistent picture of cli- (e.g., frequency of watering). By combining the records, mate-related changes to natural systems, for example, and identifying large-scale patterns, we can be more reduced snow and ice cover, southward expansion of confident that coherent trends reflect a more wide-scale avian ranges, and earlier arrival of bird species to alpine phenomenon, such as changes in the climate. areas. However, for many of the categories, particularly Most importantly, the extent of historical natural for invertebrates, amphibians, and reptiles, it is clear systems data that have already been collected within
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