Central Pattana Plc
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CentralCentral PattanaPattana PlcPlc.. Property Development & Investment Non Deal Roadshow – U.S.A (May 16-18, 2007) Organized by DBS Vickers Important Notice The information contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell or the solicitation of an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for share in Central Pattana Public Company Limited (“CPN” and shares in CPN, “shares”) in any jurisdiction nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in any connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation may include information which is forward-looking in nature. Forward-looking information involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may impact on the actual outcomes, including economic conditions in the markets in which CPN operates and general achievement of CPN business forecasts, which will cause the actual results, performance or achievements of CPN to differ, perhaps materially, from the results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by the CPN. The information in this presentation has not been independently verified. No representation, warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions in this presentation. None of the CPN or any of its agents or advisers, or any of their respective affiliates, advisers or representatives, shall have any liability (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. This presentation is made, furnished and distributed for information purposes only. No part of this presentation shall be relied upon directly or indirectly for any investment decision-making or for any other purposes. This presentation and all other information, materials or documents provided in connection therewith, shall not, either in whole or in part, be reproduced, redistributed or made available to any other person, save in strict compliance with all applicable laws. 2 Content Economic Overview & Market Update Company Overview & Business Strategy Operations Developments Financial Highlights 3 Economic Overview & Market Update Economic Overview Economic Overview in 1Q 2007 Overall Thai economy in 1Q 2007 continued to reflect The recovery process was jolted by several elements stagnancy resulted from weakened in domestic demand. arising in 1Q 2007 BOT downgraded GDP growth 2007 to 3.8-4.8% from the Although the capital control has been eased for foreign fund previous forecasted of 4-5%. flows, foreign investors have not applied those measures in Private Consumption Index showed a negative growth of practice due to it creates higher cost. 0.5%yoy The politics persisted an uncertainty as incidences of bomb Private Investment Index displayed a negative growth of 2.5% yoy. in Bangkok. Consumer Confidence Index fell reflecting fragile domestic Ministry of Commerce amended the Foreign Business Act growth. to crack down on nominee structure, creating risk to recovery of private investment in 2007 and also sent a Situation in 1Q 2007 helped cushion sluggish economy misunderstanding unfriendly message to foreign investors. by: Interest rate has been cut in total of 100bps since the beginning of 2007 which could stimulate property sector. Inflation was subdued to a decelerate pace at 2.0% in Mar 2007 which put less pressure on people purchasing power. Export and tourism remained strong and expand satisfactorily at 19%yoy and 4%yoy, respectively. Source : Bank of Thailand and NESDB 5 Retail Overview Retail in 1Q 2007 Expectation for 2007 Retail sales during 1Q 2007 continued to experience Although there are still many negative economic & lackluster period mainly due to decline in domestic external factors weighing down the economic recovery, demand partly evidence as lower consumer CPN believes that the recovery in the economy, retail confidence and business sentiment index. sector and consumer confidence will enhance in the Retail sales growth in Feb 2007 decelerated by 1.8%yoy, 2H07. This assumption is made on the basis that: lower than a 4%yoy growth in 2006. Political situation remains steady. Sales of retail operators retreated a single-digit to zero Oil price remains at current levels. growth after staying double digits since the financial crisis. Interest rate continues downward trend. The draft of new Retail Business Law was Consumer Confidence and Business Sentiment improves. approved by the Cabinet on May 8th,07 after being rejected in Mar 07. The draft will be further sent to the Tourism is anticipated to continually flourished. Council of State for revision before submitting to the Amendment to Constitution is expected to complete in 4Q07. National Legislative Assembly for approval. The first- Election is scheduled to take place in December 2007. ever Retail Business Law is purpose to eliminate unfair trade between large-scaled and small retailers. However, the giant retailers urged the government to consider the impact of new law on consumers. Therefore it is likely that retail growth will continue to depress through 2007 amidst the uncertainties. Source : Bank of Thailand and NESDB 6 Bangkok Retail Market Overview Comments Retail Supply Total retail supply in Bangkok increased by 220,000 Sqm (‘000) Vacancy % 2,500 10.8% sqm or 5.1% yoy in 2006 and most of new area came 6.8% from shopping malls, of which leasable area increased by 2,281 2,250 5.5% 2,059 10.8% yoy. Major supply operational in 2006 includes 5.4% CentralWorld (60,000 sqm) 2,000 1,928 1,927 The Esplanade (44,000 sqm) 5.1% 5.0% The Avenue – Chaengwattana (21,173 sqm) 1,750 4.7% The average vacancy in 2006 was 3.5%, a significant 1,500 decrease from 5.4% in 2005 mainly due to nearly fully 1,265 1,275 1,289 1,278 4.5% occupied space at newly opened mall, CentralWorld. 1,250 1,007 1,007 New retail supply in 2007 will be approximately 200,000 1,000 815 4.0% sqm, mostly from shopping mall; JJ Mall (65,000 sqm), 779 ZenWorld@CentralWorld (30,000 sqm), Jaturas Jamjuri 750 (20,000 sqm), SF Kaset Nawamin (21,000 sqm). 500 3.5% Rental rates have generally been stable since 2H05 due 3.5% 250 to the steady supply of new retail leaseable area. It is also expected to remain stead in the short-term and may 0 3.0% again rise depending on how quickly the country’s 2003 2004 2005 2006 Superstores Dept. Stores Malls Vacancy economic condition improves. New Supply (sqm) 45,000 338,000 220,000 Total Supply (sqm) 3,972,000 4,017,000 4,355,000 4,575,000 Source : CBRE and Company’s estimate 7 Bangkok Office Market Overview Comments Office Supply Sqm (‘000) Vacancy % Total office supply in 2006 increased by 3.5%yoy or 5,346 5,500 5,243 28.0% 253,000 sqm to 7.46 mil sqm due to the opening of 5,000 4,740 4,714 24.0% 4,500 25.0% 9 office buildings: 4,000 20.0% 20.9% 16.0% 3 offices in CBD (Q House Lumpini, Column Tower and 3,500 3,000 16.0% Exchange Tower). 2,376 2,471 16.4% 2,500 1,967 2,117 12.0% 6 offices in Non CBD (Fenix Tower, Supalai Grand Tower, 2,000 13.5% 10.2% 8.0% I Tower, Central Pinklao Tower B, Rasa Tower II, and 1,500 1,000 7.2% 4.0% King Power New Head Office). 500 4.8% 0 0.0% The average vacancy for Grade A in 2006 considerably 2003 2004 2005 2006 Grade A Grade B & C Vacancy - A Vacancy - B&C increased from 4.8% in 2005 to 7.2% in 2006 due to the new supply. Meanwhile Grade B slightly decreased from New Supply (sqm) 70,000 25,000 253,000 16.4% in 2005 to 16.0% in 2006. Total Supply (sqm) 7,115,000 7,185,000 7,210,000 7,463,000 New supplies of approximately 200,000sqm are Office Rental Rate expected to come in 2007 (Grade A:20%, Grade B:80%). + 9.7% The only new grade A building in CBD to be completed Bt/sqm 700 653 + 12.9% will be Athenee Tower on Wireless Rd., anticipated to 595 600 open in 2H07. 506 483 500 431 428 Rental rate growth for 2006 increased by 10-13%, lower 400 365 311 than that of 2005 due to the new supply, stagnant 300 economy, and weakened private investment. However 200 due to the continued demand in office space for company 100 establishment and expansion, we expect rental to 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 increase at a moderate pace. Grade A Grade B Source : CBRE and Company’s estimate 8 Company Overview & Business Strategy Business Overview Highlights Recent Achievements CPN is the leading retail developer and investor in CPN was rated among “Asia’s Best under a Billion” by Thailand with a 28% market share in Bangkok’s mall FORBES Magazine. leaseable area. CPN was included in SET50 on the Stock Exchange of CPN owns/manages 10 shopping centers, 5 office Thailand (SET). towers and 2 apartments in Thailand. CPN was ranked in the Top Quartile category for Good CPN continuously achieves strong growth through green Corporate Governance of Thai listed companies. field developments, acquisition & redevelopments and asset enhancement projects. CPN is included in MSCI Index in May 2006. CPN is a fully integrated retail developer with unparallel (1) synergies with its major shareholders, Central Group Shareholder’s Value Creation and Thailand Equity Fund, and unmatched financing Bt mn capability through its property fund.