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Asteroid Impact Mitigation and in Par- Ticular the Group Feasibility Study of a Mitigation Precursor Mission

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Asteroid Impact Mitigation and in Par- Ticular the Group Feasibility Study of a Mitigation Precursor Mission Alexander Bradley Precursor Rendezvous for Impact Mitigation of Asteroids (PRIMA): Systems Engineering SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING MSc Astronautics and Space Engineering Group Design Project Report CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING MSc Astronautics and Space Engineering Group Design Project Report Academic Year 2006-07 Alexander Bradley Precursor Rendezvous for Impact Mitigation of Asteroids (PRIMA): Systems Engineering Supervisor: Dr Stephen Hobbs August 2007 This thesis is submitted in partial (30%) fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MSc Astronautics and Space Engineering. c Cranfield University 2007. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner. i Abstract Asteroid impacts are perhaps the most infrequent but certainly the most devastating form of natural disaster occurring on our planet. Despite the rarity of their occur- rence, these events present a real threat for modern society. Although there has been an increasing recognition of the reality of this threat, the potential means by which the disaster could be avoided remain poorly understood. It is, however, the only form of natural disaster for which the capability exists to predict and prevent a catastrophe. This project aims to improve the knowledge of asteroid impact threat and under- standing of how to mitigate the problem and to maximise the reliability of a possible solution. This aim has been addressed by the group design of a precursor mitigation mission. The mission’s main objectives are to: rendezvous with a threatening aster- oid; track the asteroid accurately; measure its physical characteristics and demon- strate mitigation technology. This report presents the author’s work as one of two system engineers within the group. Its focus is on system requirements, budgets and an international framework perspective. The design takes the form of a feasibility study. Analysis therefore focuses on identifying and addressing key issues related to the mission. The role of the system engineer was to coordinate all subsystems at a top level. In particular this meant ensuring all design choices were fully justifiable by both traceability to the mission objectives and constraint considerations. The resultant design is based on a combination of proven technology and justified assumptions for operational parameters. Although some areas of the design remain outstanding, they have been analysed in sufficient detail to reasonably discount them as feasibility issues. In summary, the design meets all mission objectives at low risk and low cost. The process for protection against asteroid impacts comprises three parts; an early warning system, mitigation options and decision making. Whilst the early warning system and decision making are far from trivial to complete, action is underway in these areas. In contrast, there is currently no action in the field of mitigation technology options. This project represents a significant step towards bridging this gap. Logically, the next phase would be to formalise this design and implement it into production. ii Acknowledgements Thanks to the official group supervisor, Dr. Stephen Hobbs and all the project members for their contributions to finalise a mission design. There were also part contributions from Mr Tom Bowling and other members who were unable to com- plete the project. CONTENTS iii Contents Contents iii List of figures vi List of tables vii Abbreviations ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Rationale . 4 1.3 Objectives & overview . 5 1.4 Report structure . 6 2 Literature review 7 2.1 Earth based observations . 7 2.2 Asteroid rendezvouses . 9 2.3 Mitigation options . 10 2.4 Interested parties . 10 2.5 Apophis . 11 3 Project Management 12 3.1 Project organisation . 12 3.2 Work breakdown structure . 12 iv CONTENTS 3.3 System engineer role . 14 4 Requirements 15 4.1 Top level requirements . 15 4.2 Requirements development . 17 4.3 Spacecraft specifications . 29 5 Budgets 32 5.1 Mass budget . 32 5.2 Financial budget . 33 5.3 Data budget . 33 5.4 Communications link budget . 33 5.5 Power budget . 34 5.6 Propellant budget . 35 6 International framework 43 6.1 Current activities . 43 6.2 International collaboration . 47 6.3 Relevance of PRIMA . 47 7 Conclusion 49 7.1 Summary of work . 49 7.2 Conclusions . 49 7.3 Future work . 50 8 References 51 8.1 References . 51 8.2 Bibliography . 53 A Executive Summary: PRIMA, System Engineer Alexander Bradley 60 Contents v B Project management 62 B.1 Detailed work breakdown structure . 62 C Propulsion 66 C.1 Electric engine . 66 D Budgets 67 D.1 Initial cost budget . 67 D.2 Data budget assumptions . 67 D.3 Communications budget assumptions . 68 D.4 Power source sizing . 68 D.5 Propellant calculations . 68 vi LIST OF FIGURES List of Figures 1.1 Object classes within near-Earth space . 2 1.2 Near Earth asteroid orbit types . 2 1.3 Impact frequency by diameter . 3 1.4 Impact fatalities . 4 1.5 Possible impact effects . 4 3.1 Work breakdown structure . 13 4.1 Top-down subsystem interface . 18 4.2 Varying distance between Apophis and Earth over time . 24 4.3 Spacecraft configuration . 27 5.1 Communication links . 34 C.1 Electric engine - PPS 1350 . 66 LIST OF TABLES vii List of Tables 1.1 Causes of death and associated probabilities . 3 4.1 Most threatening asteroids . 19 4.2 Payload . 20 4.3 Mission phases . 22 4.4 Power requirements . 25 4.5 Attitude requirements at various phases . 26 4.6 Spacecraft specifications . 30 5.1 Overall spacecraft mass . 32 5.2 Spacecraft mass breakdown . 36 5.3 Mission cost estimate . 38 5.4 Data links . 39 5.5 Phase - data link table . 39 5.6 Communications link budget . 40 5.7 Power Budget . 41 5.8 Phase - power table . 42 5.9 Propellant budget . 42 C.1 PPS 1350 specifications . 66 D.1 Initial cost budget . 67 D.2 Main instruments for data links . 67 viii LIST OF TABLES D.3 Transmit data related parameters . 68 D.4 Communication budget design parameters . 68 D.5 Referenced communications link budget . 69 D.6 Orbiter battery sizing . 69 D.7 Orbiter solar array sizing . 70 D.8 Lander RTG sizing . 70 D.9 Propellant calculations . 71 Abbreviations ix Abbreviations NEO Near Earth Object MOID Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance SMAD Space Mission Analysis and Design SSCM Small Satellite Cost Model PHA Potentially Hazardous Asteroid NEA Near Earth Asteroid Introduction 1 Chapter 1 Introduction This project is concerned with the topic of asteroid impact mitigation and in par- ticular the group feasibility study of a mitigation precursor mission. The scope of this report is to present the work of the author as a system engineer. The introduction discusses the background to the project, its rationale, objectives and report organisation. 1.1 Background The prevention of casualties and the limitation of damage caused by natural dis- asters that originate on Earth, such as earthquakes, hurricanes and tsunamis, is a focus of intensive research and funding. The hazard, however, presented by impacts from extraterrestrial bodies remain far less well understood. These events, whilst less frequent, pose a much greater threat than other natural disasters as they have the potential to eradicate the entire human race. The destructive potential behind Earth-bound objects was highlighted by Alvarez et al. (1980) in a publication outlin- ing the cause of the dinosaur extinction and this awoke the academic community to the threat. This section discusses the objects in space which present these potential hazards, the probability of impact and the effects of such an event. 1.1.1 Impact hazard taxonomy There are various type of objects in near-Earth space, of which only comets and asteroids pose a significant threat to Earth (figure 1.1). Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are those which have a perihelion distance ≤ 1.3 Astronomical Units (AU) and an aphelion distance ≥ 0.98 AU (Bottke et al., 2002a). Of these, asteroids are by far the most numerous and are termed Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs). NEAs are sub- categorised into Apollos, Atens, Amors and Inner Earth Objects (IEOs)(figure 1.2). Of particular importance are those NEAs which have a minimum orbit intersection 2 Introduction distance (MOID) of 0.05 AU and an absolute magnitude ≤ 22 (Rabinowitz et al., 1994). These are known as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and make-up the category which poses the most significant threat to Earth. Figure 1.1: Object classes within near-Earth space (Binzel et al., 2002) Figure 1.2: Near Earth asteroid orbit types (NASA, 2007) 1.1.2 Impact probability The frequency of an impact by an asteroid decreases with increasing asteroid diam- eter (figure 1.3). There is, therefore, a lower probability of a relatively large asteroid compared to one of a smaller diameter. To put this in perspective, table 1.1 shows the statistical probability of death by asteroid impact compared to other common and not so common causes. A review of the current top 5 threatening asteroids is covered in section 4.2.2. Introduction 3 Figure 1.3: Impact frequency by diameter (Chapman and Morrison, 1994) Table 1.1: Causes of death and associated probabilities (Adams et al., 2003) Cause of Death Chance Motor vehicle accident 1 in 100 Homicide 1 in 300 Fire 1 in 800 Firearms accident 1 in 2,500 Electrocution 1 in 5,000 Asteroid/comet impact 1 in 20,000 Passenger aircraft crash 1 in 20,000 Flood 1 in 30,000 Tornado 1 in 60,000 Venomous bite or sting 1 in 100,000 Fireworks 1 in 1,000,000 Food poisoning by botulism 1 in 3,000,000 Drinking water with EPA limit of tricholoethylene 1 in 10,000,000 1.1.3 Impact effects To highlight the importance of designing asteroid mitigation strategies, consider that it only takes an asteroid of 10 km in diameter to destroy life on Earth (figure 1.4).
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