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Defending Earth: the Threat from Asteroid and Comet Impact
Defending Earth: The Threat from Asteroid and Comet Impact Version A | 05 September 2009 Mr. A.C. Charania President, Commercial Division | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | [email protected] | 1+770.379.8006 Acknowledgments: Multiple slides from Dr. Clark Chapman, Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Colorado, USA, URL: www.boulder.swri.edu/~cchapman 1 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Source: NASA/JPL/Infrared Telescope Facility 2009 Jupiter Impact Event: 19 July 2009 (1 km Sized Object) 2 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero Source: JPL / NASA Spitzer Space Telescope 95 Light Years Away (Star HD 172555): Moon-Sized Object Impacts Mercury-Sized Object at 10 km/s (5.8+/-0.6 AU Orbit) 3 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero SPACEWORKS 4 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero KEY CUSTOMERS AND PRODUCTS 5 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero DOMAIN OF EXPERTISE: ADVANCED CONCEPTS 6 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero INTRODUCTION 7 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) | www.sei.aero − Asteroid - A relatively small, inactive, rocky body orbiting the Sun − Comet - A relatively small, at times active, object whose ices can vaporize in sunlight forming an atmosphere (coma) of dust and gas and, sometimes, a tail of dust and/or gas − Meteoroid - A small particle from a comet or asteroid orbiting the Sun − Meteor - The light phenomena which results when a meteoroid enters the Earth's atmosphere and vaporizes; a shooting star − Meteorite -A meteoroid that survives its passage through the Earth's atmosphere and lands upon the Earth's surface − NEO - Near Earth Object (within 0.3 AU) − PHOs - Potentially Hazardous Objects (within 0.025 AU) COMMON DEFINITIONS 8 Copyright 2009, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. -
Detecting the Yarkovsky Effect Among Near-Earth Asteroids From
Detecting the Yarkovsky effect among near-Earth asteroids from astrometric data Alessio Del Vignaa,b, Laura Faggiolid, Andrea Milania, Federica Spotoc, Davide Farnocchiae, Benoit Carryf aDipartimento di Matematica, Universit`adi Pisa, Largo Bruno Pontecorvo 5, Pisa, Italy bSpace Dynamics Services s.r.l., via Mario Giuntini, Navacchio di Cascina, Pisa, Italy cIMCCE, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universits, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Lille, 77 av. Denfert-Rochereau F-75014 Paris, France dESA SSA-NEO Coordination Centre, Largo Galileo Galilei, 1, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy eJet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, 91109 CA, USA fUniversit´eCˆote d’Azur, Observatoire de la Cˆote d’Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, Boulevard de l’Observatoire, Nice, France Abstract We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semi- major axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift esti- mate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analyzed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detec- tions, for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because unrealistic or not explicable with the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure, in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near fu- ture, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids with reliably detected Yarkovsky effect, with limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. -
Photometric Survey of 67 Near-Earth Objects S
A&A 615, A127 (2018) Astronomy https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201732154 & c ESO 2018 Astrophysics Photometric survey of 67 near-Earth objects S. Ieva1, E. Dotto1, E. Mazzotta Epifani1, D. Perna1,2, A. Rossi3, M. A. Barucci2, A. Di Paola1, R. Speziali1, M. Micheli1,4, E. Perozzi5, M. Lazzarin6, and I. Bertini6 1 INAF – Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Via Frascati 33, 00078 Monte Porzio Catone, Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected] 2 LESIA – Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France 3 IFAC – CNR, Via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze, Italy 4 ESA SSA-NEO Coordination Centre„ Largo Galileo Galilei 1, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy 5 Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, Via del Politecnico 1, 00100 Rome, Italy 6 Department of Physics and Astronomy “Galileo Galilei”, University of Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 3, 35122 Padova, Italy Received 23 October 2017 / Accepted 29 March 2018 ABSTRACT Context. The near-Earth object (NEO) population is a window into the original conditions of the protosolar nebula, and has the potential to provide a key pathway for the delivery of water and organics to the early Earth. In addition to delivering the crucial ingredients for life, NEOs can pose a serious hazard to humanity since they can impact the Earth. To properly quantify the impact risk, physical properties of the NEO population need to be studied. Unfortunately, NEOs have a great variation in terms of mitigation- relevant quantities (size, albedo, composition, etc.) and less than 15% of them have been characterized to date. -
AAS/DPS Poster (PDF)
Spacewatch Observations of Asteroids and Comets with Emphasis on Discoveries by WISE AAS/DPS Poster 13.22 Thurs. 2010 Oct 7: 15:30-18:00 Robert S. McMillan1, T. H. Bressi1, J. A. Larsen2, C. K. Maleszewski1,J. L. Montani1, and J. V. Scotti1 URL: http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu 1University of Arizona; 2U.S. Naval Academy Abstract • Targeted recoveries of objects discovered by WISE as well as those on impact risk pages, NEO Confirmation Page, PHAs, comets, etc. • ~1900 tracklets of NEOs from Spacewatch each year. • Recoveries of WISE discoveries preserve objects w/ long Psyn from loss. • Photometry to determine albedo @ wavelength of peak of incident solar flux. • Specialize in fainter objects to V=23. • Examination for cometary features of objects w/ comet-like orbits & objects that WISE IR imagery showed as comets. Why Targeted Followup is Needed • Discovery arcs too short to define orbits. • Objects can escape redetection by surveys: – Surveys busy covering other sky (revisits too infrequent). – Objects tend to get fainter after discovery. • Followup observations need to outnumber discoveries 10-100. • Sky density of detectable NEOs too sparse to rely on incidental redetections alone. Why Followup is Needed (cont’d) • 40% of PHAs observed on only 1 opposition. • 18% of PHAs’ arcs <30d; 7 PHAs obs. < 3d. • 20% of potential close approaches will be by objects observed on only 1 opposition. • 1/3rd of H≤22 VI’s on JPL risk page are lost and half of those were discovered within last 3 years. How “lost” can they get? • (719) Albert discovered visually in 1911. • “Big” Amor asteroid, diameter ~2 km. -
Neodys (And Astdys and Priority List) Data Provision
NEODyS (and AstDyS and Priority List) Data Provision Fabrizio Bernardi CEO of SpaceDyS What is NEODyS • NEODyS is a web based service and stands for Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site: h@p://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys • NEODyS provides informaon on the IMPACT PROBABILITY of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), typically for an horizon of 100 years • The most important output is the Risk Page: h@p://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys2/index.php?pc=4.0 where a list of NEOs (459 on Nov 17th) with some chances of hing the Earth within the next century is posted for the public • Only JPL@NASA provides a similar service with SENTRY • NEODyS team has a technological leadership in Europe (and world) NEODyS background • NEODyS was born in 1999 at the Dep. of Mathemacs of the University of Pisa (Italy), within the CelesDal Mechanics Group (CMG) lead by Prof. Andrea Milani • The main moDvaon was the absence of a rigorous and systemac method for compuDng on a daily basis the probability that an asteroid is hing the Earth • The 1997XF11 case was a PR disaster, just for the lack of a well established system to perform such computaons NEODyS daily acDviDes • Since 1999 NEODyS is processing astrometric data of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) provided by the Minor Planet Center, the official enDty supported by the Internaonal Astronomical Union (IAU) that manages all the asteroids observaons and the official catalog of asteroids • The data are sent to NEODyS either by email or via web, through the Minor Planet Electronic Circulars (MPECs) • MPECs: – DOU à Daily Orbit Update: new observaons -
Near-Earth Objects
Near-Earth Objects 12/06/96 shows an elongated object about seen here in a NEAR spacecraft image 4.5 kilometers in extent. Veverka et al. (2000), Science, 289, Ostro et al. (1999), Icarus, 137: pp. 122-139. pp. 2088-2097. THE NEAR EARTH OBJECT POPULATION Near-Earth objects are an important area of study because they are relatively primitive bodies left over from the early solar system formation process, they can be utilized as raw materials for building future structures and habitats within the inner solar system, and their rare, but potentially catastrophic, collisions with Earth make them potential hazards. A comprehensive search for near-Earth objects (NEOs) not only ensures that there will be no surprises from Earth threatening objects but there will be new discoveries. During future close Earth approaches, these objects can be studied via ground-based programs including radar "imaging" characterizations and Earth orbital satellite observations (e.g., Hubble Space Telescope). In addition, these NE0 discoveries will provide future mission targets that are among the most accessible in terms of spacecraft energy requirements. Indeed, many near-Earth asteroids present easier rendezvous and landing opportunities than Earth's own Moon. While the vast majority of the rocky asteroids reside between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter and almost all the icy comets are resident in the so-called Kuiper belt and Oort cloud in the outer solar system, a significant number of these bodies reside in the Earth's neighborhood. Near-Earth asteroids and near-Earth comets make up the population of so-called near-Earth objects (NEOs). -
4 IAA Plane Etary Defen Nse C Onfer Rencee
4th IAA Planetary Defense Conference Assessing Impact Risk & Managing Response 13‐17 April 2015 Frascati, Italy PROGRAM 2015 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: PROGRAM Assessing Impact Risk & Managing Response PDC 2015 DAY April 13, 2015 1 0800 REGISTRATION 0900 WELCOMING REMARKS 0915 IAA‐PDC‐15‐00‐01 KEYNOTE: 15.02.2013 Chelyabinsk. Are we ready for O. Atkov a recurrence? 0945 BREAK SESSION 1: INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS & ACTIVITIES Session Chairs: Detlef Koschny, Lindley Johnson 1000 IAA‐PDC‐15‐01‐01 The Near‐Earth Object Segment Of ESA’s SSA G. Drolshagen Programme 1020 IAA‐PDC‐15‐01‐02 Astronomical Aspects Of Building A System For B. Shustov Detecting And Monitoring Hazardous Space Objects 1040 IAA‐PDC‐15‐01‐03 The Achievements Of The NEOShield Project And The A. Harris (DLR) Promise Of NEOShield‐2 1100 IAA‐PDC‐15‐01‐04 Recent Enhancements To The NEO Observations L. Johnson Program: Implications For Planetary Defense 1120 IAA‐PDC‐15‐01‐05 Asia‐Pacific Asteroid Observation Network M. Yoshikawa 1140 INJECT 1: HYPOTHETICAL THREAT 1200 LUNCH SESSION 2: DISCOVERY, TRACKING, CHARACTERIZATION Session Chairs: Alan Harris (US), Alan Harris (DLR), Line Drube 1315 IAA‐PDC‐15‐02‐01 PAN‐STARRS Search For Near Earth Objects R. Wainscoat 1330 IAA‐PDC‐15‐02‐02 Design Characteristics Of An Optimized Ground S. Larson Based NEO Survey Telescope 1345 IAA‐PDC‐15‐02‐03 ATLAS – Warning For Impending Impact J. Tonry 1400 IAA‐PDC‐15‐02‐04 Sentinel Mission For Planetary Defense H. Reitsema 1415 IAA‐PDC‐15‐02‐05 Building On The NEOWISE Legacy With NEOCAM, The A. -
Yarkovsky Effect Detection and Updated Impact Hazard Assessment
Yarkovsky effect detection and updated impact hazard assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD Alessio Del Vignaa,b, Javier Roac, Davide Farnocchiac, Marco Michelid,e, Dave Tholeni, Francesca Guerraa, Federica Spotof, Giovanni Battista Valsecchig,h aSpace Dynamics Services s.r.l., via Mario Giuntini, Navacchio di Cascina, Pisa, Italy bDipartimento di Matematica, Universit`adi Pisa, Largo Bruno Pontecorvo 5, Pisa, Italy cJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, 91109 CA, USA dESA NEO Coordination Centre, Largo Galileo Galilei, 1, 00044 Frascati (RM), Italy eINAF - Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Via Frascati, 33, 00040 Monte Porzio Catone (RM), Italy fUniversit´eC^oted'Azur, Observatoire de la C^oted'Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, Boulevard de l'Observatoire, Nice, France gIAPS-INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy hIFAC-CNR, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy iInstitute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA Abstract Near-Earth Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with possible (though unlikely) impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777) by constraining the Yarkovsky effect, which is the main source of uncertainty for future predictions, and informing the impact hazard assessment. We included the Yarkovsky effect in the force model and estimated its magnitude from the fit to the (410777) optical and radar astrometric data. We performed the (410777) hazard assessment over 200 years by using two independent approaches: the NEODyS group adopted a generalisation of the Line Of Variations method in a 7-dimensional space, whereas the JPL team resorted to the Multilayer Clustered Sampling technique. -
(99942) Apophis
Asteroid (99942) Apophis: new predictions of Earth encounters for this potentially hazardous asteroid David Bancelin, François Colas, William Thuillot, Daniel Hestroffer, Marcelo Assafin To cite this version: David Bancelin, François Colas, William Thuillot, Daniel Hestroffer, Marcelo Assafin. Asteroid (99942) Apophis: new predictions of Earth encounters for this potentially hazardous asteroid. Astron- omy and Astrophysics - A&A, EDP Sciences, 2012, 544, pp.id. A15. 10.1051/0004-6361/201117981. hal-00764893 HAL Id: hal-00764893 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00764893 Submitted on 13 Dec 2012 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. A&A 544, A15 (2012) Astronomy DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201117981 & c ESO 2012 Astrophysics Asteroid (99942) Apophis: new predictions of Earth encounters for this potentially hazardous asteroid⋆ D. Bancelin1,F.Colas1, W. Thuillot1, D. Hestroffer1, and M. Assafin2,1,⋆⋆ 1 IMCCE, Observatoire de Paris, UPMC, CNRS UMR8028, 77 Av. Denfert-Rochereau, 75014 Paris, France e-mail: [david.bancelin;thuillot;colas;hestro]@imcce.fr 2 Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Observatorio do Valongo, Ladeira Pedro Antonio 43, CEP 20.080 – 090 Rio De Janeiro RJ, Brazil e-mail: [email protected] Received 30 August 2011 / Accepted 13 June 2012 ABSTRACT Context. -
Apollo 11: 50 Anni Sped
www.uai.it ASTRONOMIA n. 3 • luglio-settembre 2019 • Anno XLIV La rivista dell’Unione Astrofi li Italiani Apollo 11: 50 anni Sped. in A.P. 45% fi liale di Belluno Taxe perque - Tassa riscossa - Belluno centro Taxe perque - liale di Belluno 45% fi Sped. in A.P. ■ Teneriffe 1 ■ 2018 WV1 ■ Space economy ASTRONOMIA Anno XLIV • La rivista dell’Unione Astrofi li Italiani [email protected] SOMMARIO n. 3 • luglio-settembre 2019 Proprietà ed editore Unione Astrofi li Italiani 24 28 34 Direttore responsabile Franco Foresta Martin Comitato di redazione Consiglio Direttivo UAI Coordinatore Editoriale Giorgio Bianciardi Impaginazione e stampa Tipografi a Piave srl (BL) www.tipografi apiave.it Servizio arretrati EDITORIALE RICERCA Una copia Euro 5,00 3 Voglia di Luna 24 La scoperta del domo Almanacco Euro 8,00 Roberto Battiston dei Montes Teneriffe Versare l’importo come spiegato nella pa- Maurizio Cecchini gina successiva specifi cando la causale. RUBRICHE Inviare copia della ricevuta a 29 L’asteroide 2018 WV1 [email protected] 4 Statio Tranquillitatis un frammento lunare? Maurizio Cecchini Paolo Bacci - Martina Maestripieri ISSN 1593-3814 8 Mezzo secolo fa, i primi passi dell’uomo Copyright© 1998 UAI sulla Luna ESPERIENZE, Tutti i diritti sono riservati a norma Franco Foresta Martin DIVULGAZIONE, DIDATTICA di legge. È vietata ogni forma di 35 Space economy career day © riproduzione e memorizzazione, anche 12 Le colline di Marius (IX) parziale, senza l’autorizzazione scritta Maurizio Cecchini Vincenzo Gallo dell’Unione Astrofi li Italiani. 18 Chryse Planitia 38 Da Torino verso Marte Fabio Zampetti Maurizio Maschio Pubblicazione mensile registrata al Tribunale di Roma al n. -
Finding Near Earth Objects
Finding Near Earth Objects In the context of an Agency Grand Challenge Lindley Johnson Near Earth Object Program Executive NASA HQ September 4, 2014 NEO Observations Program US component to International Spaceguard Survey effort Has provided 98% of new detections of NEOs since 1998 Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May 1998 to find at least 90% of 1 km and larger NEOs § Averaged ~$4M/year Research funding 2002-2010 § That goal reached by end of 2010 NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction: “…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020]. Updated Program Objective: Discover > 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters in size as soon as possible § In FY2012 budget increased to $20.5 M/year 2 § With FY2014 budget now at $40 M/year NASA’s NEO Search Program (Current Systems) Minor Planet Center (MPC) Operations • IAU sanctioned NEO-WISE Jan 2010 • Int’l observation database Feb 2011, 135 NEAs found • Initial orbit determination http://minorplanetcenter.net/ Reactivated Sep 2013 NEO Program Office @ JPL • Program coordination JPL Began ops in Dec • Precision orbit determination Sun-synch LEO 26 NEAs 3 comets • A utomated SENTRY http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ -
Selected Orbfit Impact Solutions for Asteroids (99942) Apophis and (144898) 2004 VD17 I
Contrib. Astron. Obs. Skalnat´ePleso 37, 69 – 82, (2007) Selected OrbFit impact solutions for asteroids (99942) Apophis and (144898) 2004 VD17 I. Wlodarczyk Chorzow Astronomical Observatory (MPC 553), 41-500 Chorzow, Poland (E-mail: [email protected]) Received: October 8, 2006; Accepted: March 27, 2007 Abstract. During the Meeting on Asteroids and Comets in Europe - in May 12-14, 2006 in Vienna - there have been presented certain results of computa- tions of possible impacts of (99942) Apophis and (144898) 2004 VD17 on the Earth. These results were obtained from computations performed with the use of OrbFit software. The results were then compared with impact solutions pre- sented by the JPL Sentry System and by NEODyS CLOMON2. In all author’s computations two version of the OrbFit Software, Package: 3.3.1 and Package 3.3.2, were used. These packages are free downloadable from http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/astinfo/orbfit/. The influence of relativistic effects, radar observations, the number of addi- tional perturbing asteroids, different JPL Ephemeris of Solar System and use of the multiple solution method were investigated. It became apparent that the greatest influence on computation of the exact impact solutions have relativis- tic effects and the close approaches of massive asteroids with (99942) Apophis and (144898) 2004 VD17. With the use of the free OrbFit software and its source code almost the same results of possible impact solutions for (99942) Apophis and for (144898) 2004 VD17 as those given on the NEODyS www page were obtained. Additionally, it was possible to change the output format and the kind of output results.