33 April 2011 INTERVIEW

Surprising U.S. foreign policy continuity under Obama

The Brazilian Economy — Mr. Mead, Walter Russell Mead and you classify the foreign policy of U.S. Josef Joffe governments in terms of the thinking of Mr. Mead (left) is editor at large of of the journal The American four U.S. politicians: , Interest and professor of international relations at Bard , , College; Mr. Joffe (right) is publisher-editor of Die Zeit , fellow in international relations at the Hoover Institution, and professor and . Obama would of political science at Stanford University. seem to have a Jeffersonian style, avoiding military interventions and Kalinka Iaquinta, Rio de Janeiro favoring the defense of democracy Although a symbol of change even in his skin color, from home. Is that a good character- U.S. President has shown that when it ization? comes to international relations, he has not abandoned Walter Russell Mead — While Obama the policies of his predecessor, George W. Bush. That is the opinion of American foreign policy experts Walter was running for president, I did clas- Russell Mead, the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow at sify him as Jeffersonian. He opposed the Council on Foreign Relations, and Josef Joffe, a President Bush’s intervention in Iraq Stanford University professor,, who in April were in Rio and said that America needed to return de Janeiro to deliver lectures sponsored by the Center of to a more constitutional and more legal International Relations of the Getulio Vargas Foundation. Before doing so, they analyzed contradictions between approach in its foreign policy. Since Obama’s election campaign promises and his actions moving to the White House, however, in office. They predicted that Brazil would not be a he seems to be finding inspiration in controversial issue for U.S. policy. 34 INTERVIEW April 2011

a different tradition: that of President No other president in American history Woodrow Wilson, who advocated has led three military campaigns at promotion of democracy and human once. rights across the planet. Take the example of humanitarian intervention How do you assess the president’s visit in Libya. Indeed, it is surprising that the to Brazil and what can we expect from UN Security Council voted in favor of this relationship? this intervention but it was rejected by Joffe — The Brazilian media high- the U.S. Congress. lighted the visit positively, as President Josef Joffe — Besides Jefferson and Obama offering deference to President Wilson, we see in Obama a bit of Rousseff by coming to Brazil before George W. Bush: that is a great surprise! she visits Washington. But I think The Obama administration continues the gesture goes further. It is part of the wars in Iraq and in Afghanistan, Obama’s strategic approach of pressing has not closed Guantanamo prison, the reset button. Just as he is trying to and has resumed military tribunals for do with the Islamic world, with Russia, prisoners at Guantanamo, which was he is seeking to rebuild the relation- something he vehemently opposed as ship with Brazil, which became a little a candidate. distressed during the Lula administra- tion. So, it’s a clear sign of interest in What are the consequences of Obama’s re-engaging in search of a constructive positions for the United States and its relationship for both countries, and it foreign relations? goes beyond the symbolic. Joffe — You have three presidents for Mead — I understand that in the U.S. the price of one . . . . You have a traditional liberal- “While Obama was running for president, he isolationist, who follows the tradition of Jefferson; opposed President Bush’s intervention in Iraq an expansionist-idealist and said that America needed to return to a like President Wilson, more constitutional and more legal approach who believes he can make the world safer in its foreign policy. Since moving to the through democracy; and White House, however, he seems to be finding the nationalist-activist, inspiration in a different tradition: that of the president who believes in applying U.S. military President Woodrow Wilson, who advocated force around the world. promotion of democracy and human rights across the planet.” Walter Russell Mead

Foto: crédito das fotos 35 April 2011 INTERVIEW

“We see in Obama thinking about Brazil It is an interventionist is growing. There are a bit of George W. foreign policy. Since a number of countries Bush: that is a great the campaign, there with whom we share has been the global surprise!” Josef Joffe values, history, economic economic crisis. . . . interests. Of course, some- Today factors related times we have our disagreements, with to the domestic economy will determine France on Airbus, say, or with Brazil Obama’s success. I do not believe that on ethanol. But I think we believe that issues like Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya a global free trade system is better able will be as influential in the opinion of to ensure prosperity for the poorest and Americans in relation to the election. the population as a whole. And, like the Mead — With respect to Brazil, I United States, Brazil is demonstrably a think there will be no changes from country that believes in the idea that the current policy line regardless of democracy brings peace and prosperity. who wins the next election. On Brazil For that reason I think it is natural that the Americans have a clear policy ... President Obama would want to visit there are no problems about it. Some Brazil, talk about the future with the Republicans have criticized Obama’s president of Brazil, as it must do with statement that he would like to buy the German chancellor and the British oil from Brazil. But the intention was or the Japanese prime minister. not to criticize Brazil but to point out a contradiction in Obama’s speech, Recently, Obama announced his candi- which advocates energy independence dacy for reelection. Could this change but also announces interest in Brazilian the way he conducts U.S. foreign rela- oil. Brazil, however, is not a controver- tions? sial issue for U.S. policy. Joffe — If you asked me that question two years ago, I would say no, not What legacy do you expect President really. But Obama was elected opposing Obama will leave? the policies he now continues, such as Joffe — So far Obama has been very the war in Iraq and the action in Libya. flexible. He began his campaign with a leftist agenda, with the promise of “On Brazil the Americans transforming the U.S. into a Euro- pean-style social democracy. Then he have a clear policy . . . there garnered three wars, had to manage are no problems about it.” the Gulf oil spill crisis, and certainly had to give up an ambitious domestic Walter Russell Mead 36 INTERVIEW April 2011

policy agenda. It is difficult to say “Events, dear boy. Events.” If we are what he could do in two more years, speculating about the future with Presi- let alone six. dent Obama, we might ask: What will Mead — In foreign policy, I can say happen, for example, if Iran decides to that his legacy is not what we expected. test a new nuclear weapon? Or if the It is like what happened with Presi- situation in Syria becomes as serious as dent Eisenhower: He was elected in in Libya? What should be done if the opposition to President Truman, who economic and real estate bubble bursts called for continuing the fight against in and the world finds itself in communism. When he was elected, a completely different economic situ- however, Eisenhower pursued a very ation than we have today? Or if there similar policy, which helped create a is deeper recession and unemployment consensus in America about the Cold rises sharply in the United States? All War. It is possible that, given the conti- this can impact the actions of President nuity between the policies of George Obama. Events will rule actions. Bush and Obama, a new consensus Joffe — Voters do not like extremes. will emerge — not about what Bush Obama moved to the left, and ended did, and certainly not the way he did up handing over control of the House it, but seeing Democrats supporting a of Representatives to the Republicans, similar policy. losing seats in the Senate. I think that Obama will continue with a foreign Could you imagine a different Obama policy that is not too interventionist in a second term without the problems or too isolationist, too idealistic or raised by the economic crisis? brutally realistic. He will continue with Mead — There is a famous story the pattern of Libya, a bit of military about British Prime Minister Harold intervention but cautiously and seeking Macmillan. He was asked by a young the help of others. He will not take journalist what can most easily steer drastic actions if there are no drastic a government off course. He replied, events warranting it.

“Obama is seeking to rebuild the relationship with Brazil, which was a little distressed during the Lula administration.” Josef Joffe

Foto: crédito das fotos