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A Flexible, Modular Approach to Integrated Space Exploration Campaign Logistics Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

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A Flexible, Modular Approach to Integrated Space Exploration Campaign Logistics Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis A FLEXIBLE, MODULAR APPROACH TO INTEGRATED SPACE EXPLORATION CAMPAIGN LOGISTICS MODELING, SIMULATION, AND ANALYSIS by Paul Thomas Grogan B.S. Engineering Mechanics and Astronautics University of Wisconsin, 2008 Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in partial fulfillment of the requirements to the degree of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2010 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author………………………………………………………………………………… Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics July 30, 2010 Certified by………………………………………………………………………………………… Olivier L. de Weck Associate Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and of Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Accepted by………………………………………………………………………………………... Eytan H. Modiano Associate Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Chair, Committee on Graduate Students Abstract A space logistics modeling framework to support space exploration to remote environments is the target of research within the MIT Space Logistics Project. This thesis presents a revised and expanded framework providing capabilities to analyze a new set of explorations using a generalized resource flow through a time-expanded network to satisfy exploration demands. The framework is both flexible to model a wide range of destinations using mixed levels of fidelity and modular to enable future expansion through interfaces. The SpaceNet software tool implements the space logistics modeling framework, providing integrated modeling and simulation capabilities for quantitative space exploration campaign analysis. Discrete event simulation identifies logistical infeasibilities and provides quantitative measures of exploration effectiveness to guide trade studies or other campaign analyses. SpaceNet 2.5, a Java executable with an extensive graphical user interface, has been publicly released under an open source license. Four case studies are presented as examples of the modeling framework applied to relevant exploration campaigns. A resupply of the International Space Station from 2010-2015 includes 77 flights of seven different vehicles from six launch sites to investigate the supply capacity under existing resupply strategies. A near-Earth asteroid exploration details a two crew, 14-day tele-operated mission at 1999- AO10 to establish the feasibility requirements of using modified Constellation vehicle architectures. A lunar outpost exploration models the buildup of infrastructure and surface excursions leading to continuous human presence over 21 missions and seven years. Finally, a Mars surface exploration models the ten launches and in-space nuclear thermal rocket propulsion required to send a crew of four to the surface of Mars for a 531-day exploration. Finally, a usability experiment is presented to demonstrate the usability and efficiency of the SpaceNet tool as compared to independent analysis methods. Seven test subjects were tested, five using SpaceNet and two control subjects using spreadsheet-based methods, to analyze and establish the feasibility of a near-Earth object mission. The median SpaceNet subject required 35 minutes to complete the analysis, compared to a median of 113 minutes for the control subjects. Thesis Supervisor: Olivier L. de Weck Title: Associate Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and of Engineering Systems 3 (This Page Intentionally Blank) 4 Acknowledgements There are many individuals in need of recognition for their substantial impact on this project. First, I would like to thank Prof. Olivier de Weck for his advising and mentoring over the past two years. He has generously supported both my academic and professional development by providing countless opportunities to participate in projects, committees, conferences, and meetings, all of which have dramatically supplemented my research. I would be lost without the help of my family and closest friends. I would like to thank my father Tom for encouraging me to always accept new challenges, my mother Kathy for showing what is truly important in life, my sister Sarah for her selfless attitude, and my brother Brian for his loyal companionship. Special recognition is reserved for Natasha Lewis, for whom frequent visits are the least I can offer for the support she has provided. A substantial portion of this project is built on the work of others. In particular, I would like to recognize Nii Armar, Sarah Shull, and Afreen Siddiqi for their development contributions within the space logistics modeling framework. Also, I would like to thank my colleagues at MIT for their collaboration and assistance in case study development and usability testing. In particular, I would like to thank Ariane Chepko, Torin Clark, Ben Corbin, Ivo Ferreira, Alessandro Golkar, Jennifer Green, Abe Grindle, Arthur Guest, Tak Ishimatsu, Justin Kaderka, Greg O‟Neill, Basant Sagar, Narek Shougarian, Daniel Selva, Anthony Wicht, and Howard Yue. A portion my involvement was supported by NASA Strategic University Research Partnership (SURP) contract number 1344341. Our contacts at JPL including Gene Lee, Elizabeth Jordan, and Dr. Robert Shishko provided tremendous expertise and were instrumental in guiding the project in the right direction. This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my grandfather, Prof. Paul J. Grogan (1918-2008). He served as an inspiration from my earliest childhood and contributed greatly to my love of mathematics applied through engineering. 5 (This Page Intentionally Blank) 6 Contents 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 15 1.1.1 The Vision for Space Exploration ....................................................................................... 15 1.1.2 MIT Space Logistics Project ............................................................................................... 16 1.1.3 Human Space Flight Review ............................................................................................... 17 1.2 Project Motivation ...................................................................................................................... 17 1.2.1 Space Logistics “-ilities” ..................................................................................................... 18 1.2.2 Flexible Modeling Framework ............................................................................................ 18 1.2.3 Modular Implementation Architecture ................................................................................ 20 1.2.4 User Community ................................................................................................................. 22 1.3 Related Research and Literature ................................................................................................. 22 1.4 Project Overview ........................................................................................................................ 23 2 Domain Model .................................................................................................................................. 25 2.1 Network Components Model ...................................................................................................... 25 2.1.1 Nodes .................................................................................................................................. 25 2.1.2 Edges ................................................................................................................................... 27 2.2 Resource Model .......................................................................................................................... 28 2.3 Element Model ............................................................................................................................ 31 2.3.1 Element Hierarchy .............................................................................................................. 31 2.3.2 Element Parts ...................................................................................................................... 34 2.3.3 Element States ..................................................................................................................... 34 2.3.4 Element Demand Models .................................................................................................... 35 3 Campaign Modeling and Analysis .................................................................................................. 39 3.1 Network Model ........................................................................................................................... 39 3.2 Mission Model ............................................................................................................................ 40 3.2.1 Mission Demand Models .................................................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Mission Events .................................................................................................................... 40 3.2.3 Spatial Simulator ................................................................................................................. 43 3.3 Manifest Model ..........................................................................................................................
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