THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD MARCH 28-29, 2015 MARCH 28-29, 20155 THTHEE SYDNEYSYDNEY MORNINGMORNING HERALDHERA 12 NEWS STATE ELECTION 1313 COALITION Check out your % Percentage swing needed to lose seat electorate with our Your armchair 36.9 Ku-ring-gai seat-by-seat 36.2 Davidson 69 seats interactive at 34.7 Castle Hill guide to the election smh.com.au 34.5 Pittwater 32.4 Manly COALITION 31.9 Clarence NAT SYDNEY NAT LIB ALP IND 31.4 Vaucluse Dubbo NAT METRO Margin New 31.3 seat 30.9 Murray NAT Greater than 20% - 30.5 Wakehurst 30.4 Willoughby The seats <10% to 20% Significant 30.4 North Shore Hornsby Pittwater GRN boundary change 30.3 Cootamundra NAT Castle <5% to 10% Y 28.8 Port Macquarie NAT Londonderry Riverstone Hill 28.8 Oxley NAT 28.6 Myall Lakes NAT Ku- less than 5% NSW Y 28.4 Hawkesbury to watch ring- Davidson Mount Baulkham Hills Penrith Baulkham gai Wakehurst 28.3 Druitt 27.8 Wagga Wagga Blacktown Hills Epping Pendulum ATTHE MARGINS 27.6 Northern Tablelands (*) NAT Seven Campbelltown Heathcote 27.5 Epping Hills Manly Ryde Willoughby 27.3 Lane Cove 2015 East Hills Londonderry - Parramatta Y Y Prospect 27.3 Coffs Harbour NAT (0.2% Liberal) (5.3% Liberal) Lane Cove 27.1 Orange NAT Likely to be the first beneficiary of a Redistribution has shrunk the Independents/Greens (2/2) Mulgoa - Granville North Shore 27.1 Albury correctional swing, East Hills’ Labor Liberals’ advantage here, with Drummoyne 26.8 Goulburn 14.6 Lake Macquarie IND v LIB candidate is civil rights lawyer new boundaries taking in Labor Keira Auburn 26.5 Hornsby Cameron Murphy, the son of former strongholds. Liberal candidate Bern- Fairfield Sydney 4.4 Newtown GRN v ALP Strathfield Balmain Vaucluse 25.8 Barwon NAT ALP attorney-general and judge ard Bratusa has replaced the serving 0.4 Balmain GRN v ALP Newtown - 25.2 Ryde Lionel Murphy. He starts just 0.2 per MP Bart Bassett, who moved to the Cabramatta Bankstown Shellharbour Summer Wollongong 24.8 Cronulla 0.3 Sydney IND v LIB cent behind MP Glenn Brookes, the crossbench last year after the ICAC Lakemba Heffron Coogee Hill - Ballina NAT only Liberal to ever win the seat. heard allegations Nathan Tinkler’s Liverpool Canterbury 24.6 Prediction: Labor gain. property development company East 24.3 Lismore NAT Maroubra 23.7 Bathurst NAT LABOR made an illegal $18,000 donation to Hills Kogarah Percentage swing needed to lose seat % Prospect Terrigal his 2011 campaign. is Camden Oatley 23.6 Y 23.0 Upper Hunter NAT (1.1% Liberal) Labor’s candidate and she has lived Y Rockdale 20 seats The former seat of Smithfield was a in western Sydney her whole life. Macquarie Holsworthy 23.0 Miranda (*) proud Labor stronghold until the Fields - 22.8 Camden 2011 election, when local councillor Blue Mountains 21.7 Tweed NAT Y Miranda and petroleum geologist Andrew (5.4% Liberal) Kiama 21.6 Wollondilly Rohan became its first Liberal MP. A swinging seat, Liberal Roza Sage, a 20.1 South Coast Charlestown (*) 20.8 Cronulla The ALP candidate for Prospect is former dentist, wrested the seat 20.1 Riverstone TO LABOR TO COALITION criminal barrister and legal from the Labor Party in 2011 after 16 ILLAWARRA 19.0 Heathcote academic Hugh McDermott, who years. Her opponent is local teacher 18.5 Bega Tweed LABOR MAJORITY† lives locally. . 17.1 Drummoyne Prediction: Labor gain. Lismore Campbelltown Ballinaallinna 16.1 Penrith Macquarie Fields 14.7 Port Stephens HUNG Liverpool 14.0 (6.8% Liberal) Northern 12.5 Parramatta PARLIAMENT Summer Hill 12.7 (1.8% LIberal) A shift in boundaries favours the Tablelands SWING Clarence 12.4 Mulgoa SWING Local personality Pat Farmer puts Liberal Party, which will be keen to LIBERAL the Liberals in the game here in a hold what was once a traditional Gosford 11.9 MAJORITY# seat in which redistribution favours Labor seat. takes on Coffs The Entrance Maitland Port 11.5 Bankstown 10.6 the government. He is standing the sitting MP, Bryan Doyle. Harbourour Holsworthy Oxley Stephens 10.7 against the ALP’s Anoulack Chanth- Wollongong Barwon Tamworth 8.8 Seven Hills (*) 9.3 ivong, a former mayor of Campbell- Newcastle (*) ALSO WATCH Kiama town who is favoured by the bookies Port 8.6 NAT v IND Shellharbour 8.7 Macquariearie Cessnock Wallsend to win the seat. Coogee (8.3% Liberal), Coogee Seven Hills (8.8% Liberal) Upper 8.3 Canterbury 7.8 Monaro Kiama (8.6% Liberal) Hunter Tamworth Dubbo Myall Newcastle 6.8 Lakemba 7.4 (2% Nationals) Holsworthy (10.7% Liberal) Lakes Lake Campbelltown NAT Auburn 7.3 Not quite the election-deciding seat Mulgoa (12.4% Liberal). Macquarie Charlestown 6.8 Wallsend Strathfield that it mirrors federally, in 25 of the Orange Mount Druitt 7.2 past 28 state elections the people of 6.4 Blue Mountains Hawkesbury Swansea Kogarah 6.3 Monaro have voted for the party THE CENTRAL 5.4 Bathurst Blue Mountainstainsnss Londonderry BlacktownHeffron that has gone on to form govern- Wyong COAST AND Murray 5.3 Maitland Cessnock 6.0 ment. The ALP’s Steve Whan is likely 5.4 Cootamundra Cabramatta Maroubra Wollondilly Y Wyong to benefit from a general correction - Goulburn 4.9 HUNTER # Fairfield 5.2 - Hawkesbury Assumes Oatley Keira towards Labor and unseat the TheEntrance 4.6 4.1 Swansea Sydney and Granville Nationals’ . Gosford Lake Macquarie 3.8 Rockdale 3.9 remain Independent Monaro 2.9 Prediction: Labor gain. (0.3% Liberal) 3.8 Macquarie Fields (*) Wagga Wagga Terrigal 2.3 *Margin reflects South Prospect Swansea Sitting MP Garry Edwards will run for 3.6 East Hills 2.2 Coast †Assumes ALP 1.9 the swing required Rockdale 2.0 the seat as an independent after he Albury 1.8 NSW wins Newtown 1.1 after redistribution or

0.3 (3.6% Liberal) was expelled from the Liberal Party CENTRAL and Balmain 0.2 by-election Monaro The Liberals’ John Flowers won the after allegations at the ICAC that he RURAL COAST seat in 2011, after 70 years in Labor took an illegal cash donation of Bega hands, and has a 3.6 per cent margin. between $1500 and $1800. The ALP candidate is back ALP’s has a real shot for another shot. because Edwards could split the Prediction: Labor gain. conservative vote. Granville Prediction: Labor gain. ALSO WATCH Sharpe, who is trying to move to the time, Liberal preferences could Kris Beavis on a two-party preferred Barwon (25.8% National), where tries to re-establish itself as a force in On paper, and with a big splash of AGAINST Wyong lower house. Leong holds a notional decide the outcome. basis, and the bookies agree. long-time Nationals MPs are NSW politics. promises, Liberal and Police and (3.8% Liberal) The Entrance (11.8% Liberal) 4.4 per cent margin but a recent Prediction: Labor gain facing stiff challenges from Prediction: Labor hold. Emergency Services Minister Stuart THE TREND Tony Issa, the sitting Liberal mem- (4.6% Liberal) Port Stephens (14.7% Liberal) Herald poll favoured Sharpe. The Greens and Labor, and in Barwon Ayres should be safe with his 16 per ber, won the normally safe Labor Redistribution increased the Liber- Upper Hunter (23% National) bookies have Sharpe just in front. NATS UNDER Tamworth and Tamworth, an independent. Strathfield cent margin. But the insertion of for- Wollongong seat for the first time in 2011. Labor als’ margin to 4.6 per cent, giving Balmain PRESSURE (6.8% National) (6.4% Liberal) mer federal Liberal MP Jackie Kelly, candidate has served on Liberal newcomer Sandra Kerr a Independent Peter Draper is chal- Labor’s anti-corruption hero Jodi who is preferencing Labor, into the (9.3% Labor) Parramatta council since 1999. chance. The Labor candidate is THE (5% Greens) Ballina lenging for the seat he held for eight HIGH-PROFILE McKay takes on sitting MP Charles contest as an independent on an Wollongong is one of the few seats Oatley David Harris, who held the same seat PROGRESSIVE The gentrified inner west seat has years before being rolled by the HOPEFULS Casuscelli, who benefits from anti-Badgerys Creek airport plat- Labor could lose, due to the South from 2007 to 2011. been a close battle between Labor (24.6% National) Nationals’ Kevin Anderson in 2011. boundary changes. Herald polling form makes it interesting. While the Coast Labor Council’s Arthur Rorris (3.8% Liberal) HEARTLAND and the Greens for more than a This safe Nationals seat is tipped to Labor preferences may help Draper Lakemba shows McKay is popular across the planned airport sits across the running as an independent, backed Liberal MP is defending Maitland decade and was almost a three-way fall to Labor mostly because of CSG over the line. state and winning this seat by the neighbouring electorates of Mulgoa by the Wollongong mayor, against a 3.8 per cent margin but will have (4.6% Liberal) Newtown tie in the last election. Greens incum- mining. ALP candidate Paul Spooner (7.3% Labor) slimmest of margins. With the book- and Camden, many here are looking the polarising Labor candidate, the fight of his life against local Liberals hold this seat by a reduced (4.4% Greens) bent Jamie Parker again faces will be relying on Greens prefer- ALSO WATCH School principal is the ies, this isn’t even close. to it to provide much-needed jobs to Noreen Hay. Labor has, however, nurse O’Bray Smith (Labor). The margin after redistribution. Two A fascinating battle in this new, Labor’s Verity Firth. Last time, the ences to whittle away the Nationals’ Labor candidate in this multicultural Prediction: Labor gain. the area. Others fear the noise and benefited from redistribution. The bookmakers like Smith by some locals, Steve Thomson for the socially progressive seat between Liberals won the primary vote ahead 24.6 per cent margin. A Herald poll at Tweed (21.7%) seat. Dib is a highly regarded increased traffic congestion. Just Liberals’ candidate in Wollongong is margin here. Liberals and for the Greens’ and Labor of the Greens, with Labor prefer- the weekend showed Spooner Lismore (24.3% National) community leader whose election Penrith how much we will find out. national car racing driver Cameron Prediction: Labor gain. Labor, go head-to-head. transport spokeswoman Penny ences getting Parker home. This would defeat Nationals candidate Upper Hunter (23% National) will be a huge bonus to Labor as it (16.1% Liberal) Prediction: Liberal hold. Walters.