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Flood Flow Statistics for the Great Lakes Watershed System

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Flood Flow Statistics for the Great Lakes Watershed System Flood Flow Statistics For The Great Lakes Watershed System Spatial Data Infrastructure Mapping and Information Resources Branch Corporate Management and Information Division Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry December 2014 Disclaimer This technical documentation has been prepared by Her Majesty the Queen in right of Ontario as represented by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (the “Ministry”). No warranties or representations, express or implied, statutory or otherwise shall apply or are being made by the Ministry with respect to the documentation, its accuracy or its completeness. In no event will the Ministry be liable or responsible for any lost profits, loss of revenue or earnings, claims by third parties or for any economic, indirect, special, incidental, consequential or exemplary damage resulting from any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in this documentation; and in no event will the Ministry’s liability for any such errors, inaccuracies or omissions on any particular claim, proceeding or action, exceed the actual consideration paid by the claimant involved to the Ministry for the materials to which this instructional documentation relates. Save and except for the liability expressly provided for above, the Ministry shall have no obligation, duty or liability whatsoever in contract, tort or otherwise, including any liability or negligence. The limitations, exclusions and disclaimers expressed above shall apply irrespective of the nature of any cause of action, demand or action, including but not limited to breach of contract, negligence, strict liability, tort or any other legal theory, and shall survive any fundamental breach or breaches. Cette publication spécialisée n’est disponible qu’en anglais. Additional Information For more information about this document, please contact [email protected]. Acknowledgements The Spatial Data Infrastructure Unit gratefully acknowledges the support of MNRF’s Surface Water Monitoring Centre to advance this project. 2 Executive Summary In 2014, as part of its hydrological data program, the Spatial Data Infrastructure Unit of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) generated single- station flood frequency estimates for the Water Survey of Canada’s (WSC) HYDAT gauges in the Great Lakes watershed systems that lie within the Province of Ontario. The resultant statistics include the flood magnitude with recurrence intervals of 1:2, 1:2.33, 1:5, 1:10, 1:20, 1:25, 1:50, 1:100, 1:200 and 1:500 years. The flood magnitude statistics can be used for applications such as floodplain delineation and design of hydraulic structures. The estimated flow statistics are distributed as an MS Access Personal Geodatabase and will be included in the Ontario Flow Assessment Tool (OFAT) III web application in the future. The following document details how the above statistics were estimated, the structure of the final data packages (as distributed) and considerations on appropriate data uses and data limitations. Key Words Flood Flow, Frequency Analysis, Great Lakes, OFAT III 3 Table of Contents Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 2 Additional Information ...................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 3 Key Words ....................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ 4 List of Tables ................................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures .................................................................................................................. 6 List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. 7 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................ 9 1.2 Overview of Flood Frequency Analysis .................................................................. 9 1.3 Objective .............................................................................................................. 10 1.4 Province of Ontario and the Study Area ............................................................... 10 2. Scientific Principles and Methodology ....................................................................... 12 2.1 Mathematical Method Using Frequency Factors .................................................. 12 2.1.1 The Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution ............................................... 13 2.2 Graphical Method Using Probability Papers ......................................................... 14 3. Software Used ........................................................................................................... 15 4. Data Source and Gauging Stations ........................................................................... 15 5. Parameters Used ...................................................................................................... 16 5.1 Estimation of Maximum Instantaneous Flow Data from Maximum Mean Flow Data18 6. Analysis and Results ................................................................................................. 19 6.1 Exploratory Analysis ............................................................................................. 19 6.1.1 Understanding the Flood Characteristics of Watershed................................. 19 6.1.2 Maximum Flood and Creager Curve .............................................................. 23 6.2 Statistical Tests .................................................................................................... 25 6.3 Flood Modelling .................................................................................................... 27 6.3.1 Selection of Probability Distribution Function ................................................. 27 4 6.3.2 Summary of the Parameters of the Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution ............................................................................................................................... 28 6.4 Flood Modelling Final Data Product and Analysis ................................................ 30 6.4.1 Data Packages .............................................................................................. 32 6.4.2 Extreme Volatility Index Using the Ratio of Q100/Q2 Year Flood ..................... 32 6.4.3 Length of Record ........................................................................................... 33 6.5 Recommended Data Uses and Considerations ...................................................... 34 6.5.1 Recommended Data Uses ................................................................................ 34 6.5.1.1 Ontario Flow Assessment Tools ................................................................. 34 6.5.1.2 Other Data Uses ......................................................................................... 34 6.6 Data Use Considerations ..................................................................................... 35 7. References ................................................................................................................ 35 7.1 General References ............................................................................................. 35 7.2 Government of Ontario References ..................................................................... 39 8. Appendix ................................................................................................................... 41 8.1 Appendix A: List of WSC’s HYDAT gauges ......................................................... 41 8.2 Appendix B: Years of Record for Flood Flow Analysis ......................................... 55 8.3 Appendix C: Flood Flow Sample Summary and Analysis .................................... 62 5 List of Tables Table 1: Station information on statistical tests ............................................................. 26 Table 2: Stations with negative coefficient of skewness. ............................................... 27 List of Figures Figure 1: WSC’s HYDAT gauge locations in the Great Lakes watershed system. ........ 16 Figure 2(a) and 2(b): Comparing maximum instantaneous peaks to maximum peaks. 17 Figure 3(a): Flood characteristics of the Great Lakes watershed system. ..................... 21 Figure 3(b) and (c): Flood Characteristics of the Great Lakes watershed system. ........ 22 Figure 4: Maximum flood vs drainage area with Creager curve superimposed. ............ 25 Figure 5(a): Summary of 3PLN distribution parameter: M (location). ............................ 28 Figure 5(b): Summary of 3PLN distribution parameter: S (scale) .................................. 29 Figure 6: Graphical output for the Three-Parameter Lognormal distribution. ................ 31 Figure 7: Extreme volatility index summary. .................................................................
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