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Fundamentals Valuation Team Name: BIC Capital 11/08/19 UnUsUaL Limited (SGX:1D1): Price Target $0.38 Team No: 141 Team Leader: Yong Yao Zhen Kevin Market Cap (mm)/ Price: $288.2 / $0.28 Q1 Rev Projection: S$20.67 million 52 Wk Low / High: $0.26 / $0.46 Q1 EPS Projection: S$0.041 Beta / Yield: 0.79 / 0% FY2019 Rev Projection: S$82.67 million FY2019 EPS Projection: S$0.08 Fundamentals Competition/Distribution/Production: ➢Live Nation Drivers / Catalysts: ➢HIM International Music ➢FNC Entertainment ➢Growing spending power and willingness to spend on live ➢B’in Live Co entertainment events in Singapore ➢Growing live entertainment market in China with untapped potential coupled with the acquisition of Beijing Wish opening doors for expansion in China by UnUsUaL Industry overview and comparison: ➢Expansion into Family Entertainment as a new revenue ➢A total of 55% of the market was represented by live source music ticket sales and sponsorship Management: ➢Within the $20bn live music market, concert ticket ➢CEO: Leslie Ong Chin Soon revenues captures majority of the market share at 83% ➢ Responsible for overall management operations, ➢Major competitors of UnUsUaL are Live Nation and strategic planning and business development of the AEG Presents Group Recent Corporate Announcements of Interest: ➢CFO: Tay Joo Heng ➢Mr Leslie Ong acquired 20,408,164 shares (1.98%) of ➢More than 20 years of financial and operational ordinary voting shares via a married deal on 05-Mar-2019 experience in media, content production, technology ➢Directors announced on 29-May-2019 that UnUsUaL and trading industries Entertainment Pte Ltd had entered into definitive agreements relating to the Apollo Project, including an agreement to enter into a secured loan facility of USD 8,500,000 with UOB Financials: Risks: ➢Last Q Recap: Rev + 50%. EPS + 20%. ➢Regulatory risk ➢This Q Expectation: Rev + 242%. EPS + 60%. ➢Subject to the varying laws and regulations from the countries they promote and produce in ➢Artiste risk ➢Popular artistes unwilling to look to UnUsUaL to promote or produce their concerts ➢Macroeconomic risk ➢Revenues will be affected during recessions or periods when consumer spending power decreases due to the Bottom Line: Undervalued stock with potential incoming discretionary nature of UnUsUaL’s offerings revenue streams on top of strong fundamentals This Year P/E: 1D1=28.5 vs STI=15x The Year EPS Growth: 1D1=30% vs STI=12% Valuation Next Year P/E : 1D1=29.5 vs STI=14x Next Year EPS Growth: 1D1=28.5% vs STI=12% Comps: Live Nation, HIM International Music, FNC Entertainment, B’in Live Co Valuation Methodology/Thesis: ➢Unchallenged in Singapore: project a 1.5% YoY growth for the Singapore market, in line with Singapore’s GDP growth forecast ➢Unleashing Potential in China: Forecasted 10% CAGR in for next 5 years, 100% increase in take from show, with 10% management fee ➢Unexplored Revenue Streams: Extrapolate from seat take-up rate for all three Family Entertainment shows Bottom Line: Strong EBITDA margins which are unmatched by other competitors in the market with strong year-on-year sales/EBITDA growth and high projected gross margins. Summary of Key Points • UnUsUaL Limited operates in the live entertainment industry with specialization in the production and promotion of live events across Asia and internationally • Strong tailwinds within the live music industry; Concert revenues capturing 83% of the $200bn market. • Major competitors in Asia include Live Nation, Focus Entertainment and AEG Presents • Only company doing both promotion and production in Singapore – UnUsUaL holds a dominant position in the region and is poised to take advantage of the increasing willingness to spend on live events • Capturing value from the growing Chinese market through its acquisition of Beijing Wish • Expansion into the Family Entertainment space forms a new vertical for growth • Exposure to the North American market creates potential for a significant growth driver for the business • UnUsUaL is projected to continue healthy profitability and improved margins over the coming years • BIC Capital has come to a target price of S$0.38 (+36%). However, investors must keep in mind key risks such as Regulatory, Artistes and Macroeconomic risks. Business Description Founded in 1997, UnUsUaL Limited operates in the entertainment industry and specializes in production and promotion of large-scale live events and concerts in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Promotion, Production, and Others. Production UnUsUaL manages the creative and technical aspects of the entire event including conceptualization, set design and creation, renting and installation of sound, light, and video equipment and providing other technical and creative solutions. Promotion The company looks after the planning and managing of events and concerts. This includes venue and date selection, coordinating ticket matters and the marketing and promotion for the event/concert. The revenue is in the form of admission fees and sponsorships. This segment works closely with SISTIC in Singapore to execute ticket sales. Others The company also manages the MAX-Pavilion at the Singapore Expo, where it collaborates with Sing-Ex Ventures with the rental of exhibition/concert halls and related equipment and co-management of exhibition/concert. Revenue Analysis Figure 2: Revenue by Geography Figure 1: Revenue by Segment (FY18) 60,000 1,062 Others 883 China 15% 50,000 44,162 3% 40,000 2,148 27,900 30,000 Taiwan 20,063 3% 20,000 Singapore 49% 10,000 17,659 Hong Kong SGD ThousandsSGD 11,672 11,708 - 16% FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 Malaysia Production Promotion Others 14% Source: Annual Report Source: Annual Report UnUsUaL’s total revenue witnessed a Y-o-Y increase of 22.6% in FY2018 (Figure 1), with a CAGR of 18.9% from FY2016 to FY2018. This is on the back of a 32% rise in net profit from FY2017 to FY2018. Majority of UnUsUaL’s revenue comes from Singapore (49%) due to its dominant presence and position in the country (Figure 2). This is followed by Hong Kong (16%), Others (15%), Malaysia (14%), China (3%) and Taiwan (3%). Business Description SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses ▪ Dominant presence in Singapore’s Mandopop ▪ Lack of brand awareness amongst Western pop and Cantopop concerts segments artistes ▪ Vertical integration provides cost advantage ▪ Limited expertise and experience hosting ▪ Established track record in production and concerts in Mainland China promotion of shows and connections with various top artistes (e.g. Jay Chou, JJ Lin, Hacken Lee) ▪ Strong network of established partners which allows them access to popular IPs Opportunities Threats ▪ New revenue generators in UnUsUaL’s ▪ New technologies might disrupt and shift expansion into the Family Entertainment space consumer spending away from live entertainment ▪ Exposure to the North America live entertainment experiences scene creates a new geographical segment for ▪ UnUsUaL operates in the consumer discretionary growth sector, making it sensitive towards recession/fall ▪ Exposure to China’s live entertainment market in disposable income Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning The overall music industry is largely dominated by live music, with a total of 55% of the market represented by live music ticket sales and sponsorship (Figure 3). Within the $20bn live music market, concert ticket revenues captures majority of the market share at 83% (Figure 4), representing a significant market size which UnUsUaL is tapping into. Figure 3: Music Industry Breakdown Figure 4: Live Music Industry Breakdown Synchronization, 1% Performance Live Music Rights, 5% Ticket Sales, Concert Ticket 43% Revenue, 83% Physical, 10% Live Music Live Music Sponsorship, Streaming, Sponsorship, 18% 17% Music 12% Downloads, 10% Source: PwC Source: Live Nation Company Report Live Music Industry The live music industry has also witnessed significant growth throughout the years. This is evident by looking at the performance of the top 100 worldwide music tours worldwide. Gross revenue from the top 100 worldwide music tours had witnessed a CAGR of 3.6% from 2011 to 2018 (Figure 5). The gross revenue from live music tour performances was largest in 2017, when it reached US$5.65 billion worldwide, but only reduced slightly in 2018, with the figure amounting to US$5.64 billion. The number of tickets sold for these worldwide tours had also shown a marked increase with 59.8 million tickets sold, having grown at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2011 to 2018 (Figure 6). Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning (Continued) Figure 5: Worldwide Music Tour Gross Figure 6: Number of Music Tour Tickets Revenues in Billion USD Sold Worldwide in Millions 8 (2011-2018) (2011-2018) 7 6 5.7 5.6 80 5 4.9 66.8 4.7 63.3 59.8 60.5 59.8 5 4.2 4.2 4.1 60 54.2 51.3 51.7 4 3 40 2 20 1 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Pollstar 2018 Year End Business Analysis Source: Pollstar Competitive Landscape Figure 7: UnUsUaL’s Competitors UnUsUaL’s involvement in different geographical locations brings about several competitors within each region. Thus, BIC Capital has sourced out 18 direct competitors to UnUsUaL which are operating within promotion or production segments and which are largely focused on the Mandopop and Cantopop genres, a segment which UnUsUaL holds expertise in. Major competitors within the industry includes Live Nation and AEG Presents which are both live entertainment companies focused on promotion and production of live music events. While these two competitors operates across all regions UnUsUaL is involved in, it is focused on promoting and producing concerts under the Western pop genre. As shown in Figure 7, major competitors of UnUsUaL include companies which have worked with popular artistes which UnUsUaL has also previously worked with, for instance Hacken Lee and Jay Chou.
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