rt rt No. FHWA/RD-80/105 .A3

On . PHWA- RD- 80-105 VELOPMENT OF CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE c.? ROUTES FOR TRANSPORTING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

September 1980

Final Report

Document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161

Prepared for

FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION

* •»*TES OV Offices of Research & Development

Traffic Systems Division

Washington, D.C. 20590 /

FOREWORD

This report documents the results of an investigation of hazardous materials transport and the development of criteria and a methodology to designate highway routes for hazardous materials movements. This report should be of primary interest to traffic safety researchers and engineers.

The research was conducted as part of FCP Project 1A, Traffic Engineering Improvements for Safety, as a result of problem statements from the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Highway Safety and Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety.

Two copies of this report are being sent to each regional office and four copies to each division. Two of the division copies should be sent to each State highway agency.

Charles F. Sch( Director, Office of Research

NOTICE

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof.

The contents of this report reflect the views of Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Company, which is responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the Department of Transportation.

This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. .

TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE

1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.

FHWA/RD-80/105

4. Ti/le and Subtitle 5. Report Dote Development of Criteria to Designate Routes for Transporting —September 1980 Hazardous Materials 6. Performing Organization Code Final Report

7. Author's) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Gary L. Urbanek and Edward J. Barber

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co, FCP31A2-586 1990 K Street, N.W. 11. Contract or Grant No. Washington, D.C. 20006 DOT-FH- 11-9595 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Final Report May 1979 - Federal Highway Administration May 1980 U.S. Department of Transportation 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, D.C. 20590 T-0379 15. Supplementary Notes

FHWA Contract Manager, D. Robertson, HRS-33

16. Abstract The purpose of this report is to document the results of an investigation of hazardous materials transport by truck and to develop criteria to desig- nate routes for hazardous materials movements. Section 1 introduces, reviews, and summarizes the hazardous materials (HM) routing problem. Section 2 documents the steps taken—from the development of route selection factors to the selection of models used—to predict the probability of an HM accident. The documentation consists of: an examination of federal, state, and a limited number of local laws and regulations; an indication of which factors should be considered for route selection; and the development of a procedure to determine the probability of an HM accident on routes considered for the transport of HM. Section 3 develops a methodology which can be used to assess the consequences of an HM accident; primary factors considered are population and property exposure. Section 4 combines the results of Sections 2 and 3 into a risk assessment methodology which quantitatively indicates routes having more or less risk associated with the transport of HM; criteria are also presented for designating HM routes. Section 5 presents the results of applying the HM risk methodology in two jurisdictions and assesses the utility of the methodology. The findings and techniques presented in this report are also presented in a shorter, user-oriented implementation guide entitled, "Guidelines for Applying Criteria to Designate Routes for Transporting Hazardous Materials" (USDOT FHWA Implementation Package FHWA IP 80-20)

17. Key Words 18. Distribution Stotement Hazardous Materials Transportation, No restrictions. Federal and State This document is available to the public Hazardous Material Regulations, through the National Technical Information Highway Routing Criteria, Hazardous Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Materials Accidents 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 237

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-69) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study has drawn on the goodwill and knowledge of many people in the hazardous materials transport field. In particular, we would like to thank the following individuals who attended our panel meetings: Dan Brame, Traffic Engineer, City of Orlando, ; Monroe Funk, Principal Planner, Wichita- Sedgwick County Metropolitan Area Planning Department, Kansas; Don Fry- barger, Director of Safety, Coastal Tank Line Inc., Akron, Ohio; Pete Pedone,

Puget Sound C.O.G. , Seattle, Washington; Larry Shoudel, Chief of Special Vehicle Movement Section, and Mike Bean, Hazardous Materials Section, Illinois Department of Transportation; Chief J. T. Alexander, Dallas, Texas Fire Department; George Naginey, New York State Department of Transpor- tation; Gene Freeman, Hazardous Materials Coordinator, Nashville, Tennes- see; Paul Hinds, Vice President for Safety and Personnel, Rogers Cartage, Illinois; and Corporal Gary Ashby, Illinois State Police Hazardous Materials Enforcement Division. U.S. Government representatives included Donnell Morrison (BMCS), John Allen (MTB), Tom Lasseigne (NTSB), and James Twigg (BMCS).

We would also like to acknowledge the advice and direction of Doug Robert- son, our contract manager, and Stan Byington, Traffic Systems Division, FHWA. Another important contributor to this project was our subcontractor, The Institute for Safety Analysis (TISA).

11 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Page

INTRODUCTION TO DETERMINING CRITERIA FOR THE ROUTING OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 1

Background 1 Project Scope 3 Study Product 4 Organization of the Report 6 References 9

FACTORS CONSIDERED FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ROUTE SELECTION 10

Introduction 10 Examination of Route Selection Factors 11 Accident Rate Models 33 Determining the Probability of a Hazardous Materials Accident 35 Application of Probability Methodology to Washington,

D.C. , Case Study 44 Summary 48 References 53

SUMMARY OF A HAZARDOUS MATERIALS CONSEQUENCES ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 57

Conceptual Framework 57 Estimating the Potential Consequences of Hazardous Material Releases on Highways 69

Consequence Methodology Applied to Washington, D.C. , Case Study 78 Summary 85 References 86

in TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Section Page

4 DEVELOPMENT OF A HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING ALTERNATE ROUTES 87

Overview of Risk Assessment Methodology 87 Criteria for Designating Highway Routes for Transporting Hazardous Materials 87 Risk Methodology Applied to Washington, D.C., Case Study 91 Summary 98 References 99

RESULTS OF PILOT TESTING CRITERIA FOR DESIGNATING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORT ROUTES 100

Pilot Testing Overview 100 Nashville Pilot Test 101 Puget Sound Pilot Test 114 Summary 129

Appendix

A DEFINITIONS OF CLASSES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 130

MTB HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACCIDENT REPORTS 134

QUANTITY SPILLED VERSUS CONSTANT DOLLAR DAMAGES FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INVOLVED IN 10 OR MORE HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS 179

IV TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Appendix Page

D WORKSHEET 1: ROADWAY INVENTORIES FOR THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE WASHINGTON,

D.C. , CASE STUDY 186

E WORKSHEETS 2 AND 3: CONSEQUENCES OF A FLAMMABLE LIQUID RELEASE ON THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE WASHINGTON, D.C, CASE STUDY 200

CONTROL MEDIUMS FOR SELECTED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FIRES 214

G WORKSHEET 4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS FOR THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE

WASHINGTON, D.C. , CASE STUDY 221

H STATISTICAL DESCRIPTORS FOR PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS 225 LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1 Sample Entries in the IBTTA Compendium 19

2 Variable Roadway Factors 26

3 Accident Rates and Geometric Features 29

4 Panel Ranking of Accident Causes 31

5 Panel Ranking of Roadway Characteristics as Accident Causes 32

6 Models Rejected for Probability Calculations 34

7 Predictive Parameters for Interstate Equations 40

8 Rural Highway Predictive Parameters and Adjustment Factors 41

9 Worksheet 1: Roadway Inventory 43

10 Worksheet 1: Roadway Inventory for Alternative 1 49

11 Accident Rate and Probability Calculations 50

12 Distribution of Highway Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials, by Class and Commodity 59

13 Hazardous Materials Activity in Virginia 61

14 Hazardous Materials Accident Records in Three States 63

15 Hazardous Materials Classes for Panel Ranking 64

16 Hazardous Materials Accident Consequences 66

17 Potential Impact Area by Hazardous Material Placard Class 71

18 Worksheet 2: Population Inventory 74

VI 1

LIST OF TABLES (Continued)

Table Page

19 Worksheet 3: Property Inventory 77

20 Worksheet 2: Washington, D.C. Population Inventory 81

21 Worksheet 3: Washington, D.C. Property Inventory 84

22 Highway Structures on the Three Alternatives 93

23 Worksheet 4: Population Risk Calculations 94

24 Worksheet 5: Alternatives Comparison 96

25 Population Risks on Three Alternative Hazardous Materials Routes in Washington, D.C. 97

26 Length Comparisons of Alternate Hazardous Materials Routes 104

27 Intuitively Preferred Routings 106

28 Summary of Risk Values 111

29 Alternatives Comparison for Residential Population 127

30 Alternatives Comparison for Residential Population and Employment 127

31 Medium Used to Control Commodities Most Frequently Involved in Accidents 214

32 Medium Used to Control Those Commodities Deemed Most Hazardous in Revised Emergency Response Guide 9/79 218

VI LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1 Representation of a Small City 5

2 Potential Consequences of Hazardous Materials Accidents for Locally Distributed Commodities 7

3 Potential Consequences of Hazardous Materials Accidents for the Transport of Hazardous Materials Through the City 8

4 Alternative Hazardous Materials Routes in Washington,

D.C. , Case Study 45

5 Alternative Route Segments 47

6 Accident Probabilities on Route Segments of Alternatives 1,2, and 3 51

7 Quantity of Hazardous Materials Spilled Versus Damages Incurred as a Result of the Spill 68

8 Census Tract Map and Hazardous Materials Impact Zone

9 Alternative Routes and Associated Impact Zones 79

10 Population Inventory 83

11 Nashville, Tennessee, Major Routes 102

12 Analysis Plan 1 105

13 Final Analysis Plan 106

14 Route Segmentation and ADTs 107

15 Accident Probabilities on Route Segments 109

16 Population Exposure by Segment 110

vi u LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)

Figures Page

17 Location of Fire and Ambulance Stations, and Opryland, USA 112

18 Seattle Metropolitan Area 116

19 Alternative Hazardous Materials Routings 117

20 Accident Probabilities on Alternate Through Route Segments 119

21 Accident Probabilities on Alternative Local Route Segments - Alternatives 3 and 6 120

22 Accident Probabilities on Alternative Local Route Segments - Alternatives 4 and 5 121

23 Potential Consequences on Alternative Through Routes 123

24 Potential Consequences on Alternative Local Routes - Alternatives 3 and 6 124

25 Potential Consequences on Alternative Local Routes -

Alternatives 4 and 5 «, 125

IX

INTRODUCTION TO DETERMINING CRITERIA FOR THE ROUTING OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

BACKGROUND

Several forces and influences have recently combined to increase public awareness of hazardous materials transportation. A hazardous material is defined in the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act (HMTA) of 1974 as "a substance or material in a quantity and form which may pose an unreasonable risk to health and safety or property." This definition covers such substances as explosives, radioactive materials, liquified petroleum gas (LPG), liqui- fied natural gas (LNG), poisons, etiologic agents, and liquid and solid flam- mables. Growing concern about the human and environmental consequences of unintentional releases of these materials has led to greater government and private interest in this problem.

This mounting governmental, industrial, and private concern about hazard- ous shipments over the highways is due to several factors which make this issue highly visible: an above average number of serious accidents in recent years; widespread questions regarding our technical abilities to control these problems (particularly oil spills and poisonous gas releases); and increased public aware- ness of the magnitude of the potential problem.

Several Federal agencies are directly involved in hazardous materials reg- ulation. The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) administers regula- tions through its multi-modal administrations and recently issued a task force report on hazardous materials transportation (1).* During the spring of 1979, the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation issued a review and analysis of the DOT hazardous materials regulatory program (2). Both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Energy (DOE) are also involved with hazardous shipments in the areas of nu- clear energy transport and hazardous waste disposal.

Industry maintains an active interest in this field, through organizations such as the American Trucking Association, Inc. (ATA), and contributes to the growing national debate over these sensitive policy issues. The American Automobile Association Foundation for Traffic Safety, for instance, recently published a pamphlet recommending procedures and responses for motorists encountering hazardous materials accidents (3).

^Numbers in parentheses indicate references to be found at the end of the section.

-1- DOT has responded to many of these problems under the authority granted in the 1974 HMTA. Extensive regulations now cover virtually all aspects of packaging, handling, and labeling of hazardous materials during transport. V One area that has not been carefully regulated is carrier route selection. A few general route criteria have been established, as indicated in Section 397.9 of Title 49 of the Code of Federal Regulations and by the Bureau of Motor Car- rier Safety, but no comprehensive authoritative rules currently govern the designation of a shipment's path. A Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) request for proposals (RFP), entitled "Development of Criteria to Designate Routes for Transporting Hazardous Materials," was issued to address this particular question. This document is the final report completed in response to the contract awarded for the above RFP.

The FHWA is anxious to develop a uniform policy for hazardous materials route designation. A limited number of these substances represent such seri- ous health hazards that they should probably be treated on a case-by-case basis. On the other hand, many of the risks associated with transporting other less dangerous materials can be substantially reduced by thoughtful routing. For example, highly vulnerable population centers or environmentally sensi- tive areas can be avoided or their potential exposure minimized. A route planner who properly understands the potential consequences of releases of the different materials will be able to: differentiate between materials that can and cannot be contained; identify materials that have localized impacts or threaten property more than life; and make other essential decisions. Only with such knowledge can planners develop criteria to inflict minimum cost on the carrier while providing maximum protection for the public.

Although DOT has been authorized to govern hazardous materials routing practices, it has not yet issued definitive regulations. Both State and local governments appear to be waiting for federal initiatives in this area because any federal policies adopted will likely preempt local ordinances. A few State and local governments have controlled the movements of certain classes of materials (e.g., explosives in California and certain nuclear materials in New York City), but hazardous materials shipments remain largely unregu- lated with respect to route. Bridge, tunnel, and turnpike authorities have adopted the most restrictive rules and in several locations prohibit any ex- plosives, flammables, or corrosives on their structures.

The study approach deals with these issues at a national level. One of the concerns expressed by local and State governments and shippers was the need for the application of consistent regulations in all regions of the country. The potential problem posed by locally mandated routing practices could be enormous for a shipper trying to comply with such ordinances. On the other hand, it is equally unrealistic to expect the Federal Government to designate specific routes for local communities. The logical solution, which this study

-2- . .

proposes to develop, is a generalized set of planning criteria that can be used by State and local governments but requires interregional consistency.

PROJECT SCOPE

The purpose of this project is to develop planning criteria and techniques for assessing the relative risks of different routing alternatives for different classes of hazardous materials.

The study addresses hazardous materials shipments that require placard- ing. This stems from DOT requirements for placarding that apply to certain types or quantities of hazardous materials.

One of the fundamental study objectives is to develop a risk assignment technique for evaluating alternative routes. In this study, risk is defined as the multiplicative product of the probability of an accident occurring and the consequences of that accident if it does occur:

Risk = Probability(A) x Consequences(A)

Thus, procedures that either diminish the likelihood of an accident occurring or minimize its consequences also diminish risk. This schema involves two major areas of investigation: (1) determine what makes some roadways more or less accident prone than others; and (2) identify populations and environ- ments whose characteristics and proximity to roadways make them particu- larly sensitive to hazardous material releases

To meet the dual requirements of national uniformity and local imple- mentation, the project team developed routing procedures that can be applied at all government levels as well as by the carrier. Factors that have been identified as potential risk increasers or decreasers are quantified at the national level to the extent possible. However, the planning methodology is structured to allow local planners to substitute their parameters if local data exist or use informed judgment to better tailor the product to local needs. Roadway and traffic factors that affect accident probabilities are based on national data, but these values are designed to be default parameters for communities lacking superior local information. For example, a community may already know which roads have higher accident rates. With this know- ledge, the planner is better equipped to determine which roadways should be avoided than if he were to rely on nationally derived accident rates for similar road types

-3- ,

The other component of risk, potential consequences, is estimated in a similar fashion. A community with specialized response capabilities or unu- sual climatic conditions may wish to substitute its estimates of potential conse- quences for the nationally generated values. For example, coastal communi- ties with prevalent off-shore breezes may assign less weight to the threat of concentrated poison gas dispersion than areas with atmospheric inversions or prevailing wind patterns that would endanger downwind populations. STUDY PRODUCT

The product of this study may be best understood by examining a hypothe- tical example. Figure 1 represents a small city in the midwest that will serve as a structural basis for this discussion. To facilitate the discussion, it is assumed that no local ordinances affect hazardous materials routing in this city. As illustrated, the city uses three hazardous materials: gasoline in the filling stations, chlorine at the water works, and anhydrous ammonia for fer- tilizer is sold at the grain elevator. In addition, an unknown number of hazar- dous materials pass through the city. It is assumed that each of the commo- dities used within the city originates east of the city on 1-70. The other hazardous commodities have origins equally divided between east and west of town. From this description, two routing problems are evident: the local distribution of hazardous materials and the transport of hazardous materials through the city.

The shortest distance route for each of the locally distributed commodities is simply 1-70 to Main Street and then to the respective destinations within the city. However, this route exposes the city's highest value property to the haz- ardous materials. On the other hand, this route may have one of the lower probabilities of accidents since it is short and intersections (i.e. , exposure) with other traffic are minimized. An alternative route with less potential con- sequence for the chlorine and fertilizer would be 1-70 to E Avenue, E Avenue to the rural road, the rural road to G Avenue, and then to each of the des- tinations. This route minimizes consequences but, while it decreases acci- dent potential because fewer intersections are encountered, it may increase accident potential because the interstate has a greater exposure factor (i.e. volume). Other routes and factors can also be examined, but without quanti- fied values it is impossible to determine which of the alternative routes has the least risk.

The through transport of hazardous materials is somewhat different. Both US 40 and 1-70 are viable routes, with 1-70 seemingly the quickest and safest. However, many cities find that hazardous materials are carried on routes such as US 40 because of established habits of drivers, eating locations, or other less well-defined reasons. To determine the magnitude of the risk differential between the two routes, it is necessary to quantify the components of risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials on each route.

-4- City Limits

PREVAILING WIND FROM WEST

Central Biojma District

D RaidmtW

FIGURE 1: REPRESENTATION OF A SMALL CITY

-5- .

This document provides the background needed by the planner or engineer to determine the least risk route for transporting hazardous materials , for both local distribution and through carriage. Figure 2 describes concep- tually the area of influence of the hazardous materials distributed locally, and Figure 3 presents the area of influence for the hazardous materials carried through the city. In both cases, the shaded areas represent the potential impact of a hazardous materials accident at any point along the route. Later sections of this report will indicate how to quantify these consequences as well as determine the probability of this type of accident occurring anywhere along the route . Multiplying the probability of a hazardous materials acci- dents times the consequences of the accident produces a risk value. This risk value can be computed for each route. Routes having the least risk can then be identified.

This illustrative example has been kept simple for purposes of explanation, The sections that follow present the background, development, and method- ology used to develop criteria for designating routes for the transport of haz- ardous materials

ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

Section 2 of this report documents the steps taken from the development of route selection factors to the selection of models used to estimate the probability of a hazardaus materials accident. Section 3 develops a con- sequences methodology which can be used to assess the consequences of ha- zardous materials accidents. Section 4 combines the results of Sections 2 and 3 into a risk assessment methodology, which can be used to indicate quantitatively the risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials over a pre-defined route. Section 5 presents the results of applying the hazardous materials risk methodology in two jurisdictions and assesses the utility of the methodology.

-6- City Limro

PREVAILING WIND FROM WEST ggj Impact Araa

Central Butinaa Dirtriei

Ratidantial

-_-__ ) Altemittv* Local Rouiaa

FIGURE 2: POTEiNTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACCIDENTS FOR LOCALLY DISTRIBUTED COMMODITIES

-7- PREVAILING WIND FROM WEST

Central Buiinea District

R~'idcntial

**' Alternative Through Routes

FIGURE 3 : POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACCIDENTS FOR THE TRANSPORT OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS THROUGH THE CITY

-8- REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Transportation, Report of the Hazardous Materials

Transportation Task Force , Washington, D.C., September 1978.

2. Congresional Research Service of the Library of Concress, Hazardous Materials Transportation: A Review and Analysis of the Department of

Transportation Regulatory Program , Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., April 1979.

3. AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, Highway Transportation of Hazardous

Materials: Safety Implications for All Motorists , 8111 Gatehouse Road, Falls Church, Virginia, 1979.

9- 2. FACTORS CONSIDERED FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ROUTE SELECTION

INTRODUCTION •

For purposes of this discussion, the broad range of factors which may in- fluence the choice of routes for a hazardous materials movement are divided into two groups: mandatory factors and variable factors.

There are two types of mandatory factors: (1) physical restrictions, and (2) legal and regulatory restrictions. Examples of physical restrictions are bridge and tunnel, and height and weight restrictions. In the development of route selection criteria, physical restrictions are essentially given conditions that must be complied with and incorporated into the overall route selection process. Legal and regulatory restrictions expressly prohibit or regulate the transport of one or more of the classes of hazardous materials. Although legal restrictions are mandatory factors, they need not be treated as hard and fast restrictions. Rather, they are acknowledged, and the analysis is conducted to make sure they are still appropriate. For example, the characteristics of a route prohibited from use in the past might be changed by subsequent events making the route a potentially viable one for hazardous materials transport. The analyst may wish to perform the risk analysis for routes with legal re- strictions in order to compare them with the alternatives. If the route with the restriction is also the route with the least risk, the community may wish to re-examine the restriction from a broader perspective.

Variable factors are items that affect the route selection decision but do not necessarily preclude the use of a route. They are typically influences that must be qualified for specific situations. For example, high levels of traffic density result in higher accident rates during those periods of in- creased activity. Thus, traffic density may become an important criterion on certain routes during peak hours but may not be an issue during off-peak hours. Traffic density is a variable factor because its relevance is a func- tion of conditions at a particular place or point in time. Likewise, popula- tion density becomes a variable factor with respect to different classes of hazardous materials because different materials present varying levels of hazard.

Substances- -even in small quantities- -that pose serious health threats may have different routing requirements than substances with fairly localized im- pacts if discharged. Ideally, route selection should strive to find the combi- nation of accident probabilities and potential consequences that produces the lowest risk. In order to estimate risk, however, it must first be known how road and traffic conditions affect accident probabilities and, subsequently, how human and environmental conditions can be assigned different consequence values.

-10- .

This section examines the two classes of factors- -mandatory and vari- able- -and documents the process for selecting the most important variable factors. (By definition, mandatory variables are usually a given in the cri- teria selection.) Within the variable factor list, roadway characteristics which contribute the most to the likelihood of an accident are identified and, in turn, predictive models which use these important factors are presented. The factors that influence route selection most strongly from a consequences perspective are discussed in detail in Section 3.

EXAMINATION OF ROUTE SELECTION FACTORS

Physical Mandatory Factors

The physical characteristics of the roadway and roadway structures are obvious factors in route selection. Clearance heights on overpasses and weight limits on bridges are quantifiable factors that will either permit or prohibit hazardous material carriers.

Legal Mandatory Factors

A legal search was conducted to identify mandatory routing factors at the Federal, State, and local levels. Although hazardous materials routing re- strictions are not widely used, they exist on numerous bridges, tunnels, and privately owned facilities. For example, California has designated certain routes as stopping places for trucks carrying explosives. Drivers must com- ply with these directives and may only stop at designated places. Some com- munities, such as Dallas, Texas, and Washington, D.C., have enacted haz- ardous materials routing ordinances to prohibit trucks carrying hazardous materials from using certain roadways. The following discussion reviews the current status of legal restrictions on hazardous materials movements

Federal Laws

Federal statutes concerning hazardous materials shipment by highway have existed since 1908 under the administration of the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC). The Transportation of Explosives Act made it unlawful for a common carrier to transport explosives by land, except as provided for by ICC safety regulations. Subsequently, this law (35 Stat 554) was amended to include other hazardous materials and to extend its coverage to shippers, contract carriers, and private carriers.

In 1967, the ICC's safety regulation function was transferred to the newly created Department of Transportation (DOT). The Department of Transporta- tion Act (Public Law 89-670) directed the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to carry out motor carrier safety functions. In order to coordinate

-11- hazardous materials regulations applicable to the various modes of transpor- tation, the Secretary of Transportation created the Hazardous Materials Reg- ulations Board.

The most significant and recent legislation in this area is the Hazardous

Materials Transportation Act (HMTA), Title I of Public Law 93-633, effec- tive January 1 , 1975. It delegates broad authority to the Secretary of Trans- portation but requires that the Secretary consult with the ICC before issuing any regulation concerning the routing of hazardous materials carriers. Sec- tion 112 of the HMTA expressly preempts "any requirement of a State or political subdivision thereof which is inconsistent with any requirement" of the HMTA or regulations issued under its authority. It is significant that the law also authorizes the Secretary to waive the preemption if the state requirements provide an appropriate level of safety and do not unreasonably burden interstate commerce.

In 1975, the Secretary of Transportation created the Materials Transpor- tation Bureau (MTB), made it the lead agency toT)OT's hazardous materials safety program, and dissolved the Hazardous Materials Regulations Board. The MTB has the authority to issue all hazardous materials regulations for DOT although it receives input from modal administrations such as FHVVA and the Federal Aviation Administration (1).

Federal Regulations

In 1971, a DOT routing regulation was issued under statutes that predate HMTA. The regulation, Section 397.9 of Title 49 of the Code of Federal Regulations,* applicable to interstate motor carriers states the following:

397.9 Routes**

(a) Unless there is no practicable alternative, a motor vehicle which contains hazardous materials must be operated over routes which do not go through or near heavily populated areas, places where crowds are assembled, tunnels, narrow streets, or alleys. Op- erating convenience is not a basis for determining whether it is practicable to operate a motor vehicle in accordance with this paragraph.

* Hereafter referred to as 49 CFR 397.9.

**Applicable to hazardous materials carried in quantities such that they are governed by placarding laws of 49 CFR 177.823.

-12- (b) Before a motor carrier requires or permits a motor vehicle con- taining Class A or Class B explosives to be operated, he must prepare a written plan of a route that complies with the rules of paragraph (a) of this section and must furnish a copy of the written plan to the driver. However, the driver may prepare the written plan as agent for the motor carrier when the driver begins his trip at a location other than the carrier's terminal.

Since 49 CFR 397.9 was not issued pursuant to HMTA, that law's express preemption provision does not apply to this routing regulation.

A second regulation, reissued under HMTA in 1976, approves certain hazardous materials restrictions imposed by states or localities on the use of tunnels (49 CFR 177.810). That section states:

177.810 Vehicular Tunnels

Nothing contained in parts 170-189 of this subchapter shall be so construed as to nullify or supersede regulations established and published under authority of State statute or municipal or- dinance regarding the kind, character, or quantity of hazardous material permitted by such regulations to be transported through any urban vehicular tunnel used for mass transportation.

Except for these very general regulations, routing of hazardous materials carriers has largely been left to States and localities. This philosophy is reflected in another Federal motor carrier safety regulation (49 CFR 397.3) issued in 1971:

Every motor vehicle containing hazardous materials must be driven and parked in compliance with the laws, ordinances, and regulations of the jurisdiction in which it is operated, un- less they are at a variance with specific regulations of the Department of Transportation which are applicable to the operation of that vehicle and which impose a more stringent obligation or restraint.

Since HMTA was enacted in 1975, MTB has not promulgated any new rout- ing regulations. On August 17, 1978, MTB announced it was considering a national routing regulation for truck transport of radioactive materials (2). On January 31, 1980, the MTB published its "Proposed Rulemaking for High- way Routing of Radioactive Materials" (3). These MTB activities were largely due to an ordinance passed by New York City in 1976, which had the effect of banning most commercial shipments of radioactive materials in or through the City. The "Notice of Advanced Rulemaking," published in 1978, resulted

-13- in considerable comment from public and private agencies concerned about Federal involvement in establishing highway routing requirements for radio- active materials. Some of the persons responding were concerned that the Federal Government should not encroach on State responsibilities. Others, including people from all the cities commenting, stressed that they do not want hazardous materials transported through their communities . Motor carriers, claiming that they are now hampered by inconsistencies from State to State, generally favored a national rule.

The recently published Proposed Rulemaking states that shipments of radioactive materials for which placarding is required must be routed to the extent possible, on circumferential interstates around population cen- ters . Packages of radioactive materials that do not require placarding com- prise the majority of all shipments and would be exempt from this require- ment. (These materials pose relatively little threat to population or they emit low radiation doses at or near the package surface.) Under the Pro- posed Rulemaking, carriers would be required to submit a written routing plan, and their movements would be confined to "preferred" highways^ unless they needed fuel, repairs, food, lodging, or other necessary steps as defined in the Proposed Rulemaking.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also has the authority to regulate radioactive materials movements in both its regulatory and li- censing proceedings. On June 15, 1979, the NRC issued an amendment to 10 CFR 73, which is designed to reduce the risk of sabotage from nuclear reactors to shipments of spent radioactive fuel transported through heavily populated areas. The rule was issued in effective form, and public comments were solicited for possible revision after its imple — mentation. The rule requires power plant operators to submit to NRC for approval, the route(s) carriers will use to haul the spent fuel for dispo- sal.

At the time of the rulemaking, NRC also provided the power plants with guidance on how to designate the routes. Carriers must stay at least 3 miles (4.8 km) away from about 150 cities identified by NRC. If this is impossible, other safeguards must be taken, including armed private guards or police escorts. The rule is an interim one and may be modified, finalized, or rescinded pending the results of ongoing research in the field. NRC has received numerous public comments on this rule and is currently analyzing them to determine if changes to existing requirements are warranted (4).

Preferred highways may be designated by States, but the State must use the same criteria of high quality roadway design and low population density nearby.

-14- .

The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (Public Law 94-580) requires the Administrator of EPA to promulgate regulations, applicable to transporters of hazardous wastes, as may be necessary to protect human health and the environment. Standards applicable to transporters of hazardous waste are to be consistent with the requirements of HMTA (5). EPA has not issued any routing regulations to date

Implications of Federal Laws and Regulations

The Federal laws and regulations regarding the transport of hazardous materials suggest criteria to be used in route selection, such as avoiding heavily populated areas, narrow streets and alleys, and places where crowds assemble. However, Federal guidance does not specify the width of a narrow street or alley or define "heavily populated areas" or "places where crowds assemble." This guidance, unless more clearly specified, could lead to con- siderable inconsistency. For example, a narrow street in Wichita may have the same width as a boulevard in Boston, and population density considered "light" in Boston may be considered heavy in Wichita.

In an attempt to overcome potential inconsistency, several Federal agen- cies are considering rule making to tighten-up routing criteria for certain commodities- -as witnessed by NRC's rule making for spent radioactive fuel and MTB's intent to provide routing criteria for radioactive substances. However, as discussed below, several states and local communities have already enacted legislation to define the Federal guidance more clearly.

State Regulations

The States' response to federal regulations concerning routing of hazard- ous materials by highway has been mixed. Twenty-six have adopted the Federal routing guidance (49 CFR 397.9), and others have dealt with the matter in a variety of ways (6).

At least six States have adopted routing regulations other than 49 CFR 397.9. For example, has regulations for the routing of explosives, and New Jersey for radioactive cargo. California has promulgated extensive regulations pertaining to the operation of carriers of explosive materials; these regulations include routing specifications and the designation of termi- nals and locations that may be used as safe parking places (7).

Eight States have adopted 49 CFR 397.9 and additional routing regulations. Washington has pending regulations for the routing of extremely hazardous waste. A 1979 law gives the Georgia Department of Transportation authority to issue regulations concerning routing, but at this time none has been pro- mulgated.

-15- Rhode Island has promulgated extensive rules governing the transportation of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquified natural gas (LNG) through the state. For example, such regulations were adopted on April 8, 1978, and in- cluded the following provisions (8):

. that all motor carriers transporting LPG or LNG intended for use by Rhode Island public utilities seek approval, prior to each ship- ment, by filing an application including a certificate that the transport vehicle has been inspected and that a Federal Depart- ment of Transportation Safety Permit has been obtained;

. that a copy of the approval be carried in the transport vehicle;

. that the transportation of LPG and LNG be prohibited from 7 to 9

a.m. and 4 to 6 p.m. , Monday through Friday;

. that every LNG and LPG transport vehicle be equipped with a two- way radio;

. that all LPG and LNG vehicles have a sign on the rear bumper with 3-inch illuminated letters saying: "Must Stay Back 500 Feet" (152m);

. that all LPG and LNG vehicles keep headlights on at all times;

. that all LPG and LNG vehicles be inspected by the driver and appropriate personnel before loading or unloading; and

. that all LPG and LNG vehicles have lock-on release valve(s).

National Tank Truck Carriers, Inc. (NTTC) took the State of Rhode Island to court alleging that the regulations regarding the signs, the radio, and the locks were "inconsistent" with DOT regulations and that the State should have applied for a DOT ruling before implementing them. An injunction was issued (U.S. District Court, Providence, Rhode Island) against those regulations, and the State appealed. The Appeals Court, however, allowed the injunction to stand. This decision is particularly important now because many States are developing their own hazardous materials regulations, which can differ from DOT's and thus cause operational problems. The Appeals Court deci- sion essentially affirms the right of a Federal judge to stop State regulations even before DOT rules on consistency; and it even allows the courts to make a ruling if DOT has made none.

On December 20, 1979, DOT published an Inconsistency Ruling relating to the Rhode Island LPG and LNG regulations. The Materials Transportation

-16- Bureau (MTB) of the DOT found certain provisions of the Rhode Island law to be inconsistent with Federal regulations. Under the authority granted in HMTA, MTB found that Federal authority preempts the requirements for per- mit and permit application, the hours of travel restrictions, written notifi- cation of accidents, bumper signs and use of a frengible shank-type lock. The other Rhode Island requirements were not found to be inconsistent with Federal authority.

The States' delegation of authority to promulgate and enforce hazardous materials routing laws provides another contrast with Federal law. More than half the States have two or more agencies with authority to promulgate regulations concerning hazardous materials. Twenty States named three or more agencies. North Carolina listed six agencies, including DOT,, the Radia- tion Protection Commission, and the Pesticide Board. Washington also named six, including the State Patrol and the Department of Ecology. Nineteen States listed one agency, and three listed none. Transportation departments were the agencies with rule making authority named most frequently- -mentioned by 27 States. State law enforcement departments had regulatory jurisdiction in 9 States, fire marshalls in 8, and environmental protection agencies in 10. Public utility and public service commissions have jurisdiction in 18 States. Other agencies listed included motor vehicle bureaus, departments of agricul- ture, and the civil defense office. Only two States named agencies that specifically address hazardous materials transportation. Illinois has a Haz- ardous Materials Section of their Department of Transportation, and Pennsyl- vania lists a Hazardous Substance Transportation Board.

State enforcement of hazardous materials regulations is also complex. Twenty States list three or more agencies responsible for enforcing their regulations. North Carolina names eight agencies, Kentucky seven, and Idaho five. Agencies responsible for enforcement include State police forces, fire marshalls, pollution control boards, a civil defense office, public ser- vice commissions, and various other State bodies. In all, the States listed over 100 agencies that enforce hazardous materials regulations.

Analysis of State Regulations

More than half the states have demonstrated a willingness to follow the Federal Government's policies for hazardous materials transportation by adopting parts of the federal hazardous materials routing criteria. Where they have promulgated their own routing rules, they tend to limit them to certain substances. The reasons for lack of State initiative in this area are not readily apparent. It may be that States do not perceive this as a problem area calling for regulation. The fact that to date no comprehen- sive or scientific criteria have been developed in this area may play some part in State inaction. Some States may believe that their turnpike, tunnel,

-17- .

and bridge regulations, promulgated by separate authorities, are sufficient. Others may be sensitive to the importance of efficient transportation of hazar- dous materials to their economies. The complications involved in drafting rules that are not in conflict with Federal regulations of hazardous materials transportation may also be a deterrent.

The State-level agencies with power to promulgate or enforce hazardous materials transportation regulations range from State police forces to departments of transportation and include many different agencies. An impor- tant finding for this study is that the staffs of these various agencies have a wide range of analytic skills. The risk analysis methodology was developed to provide a variety of users with an understandable and low-cost technique for evaluating alternative hazardous materials routes.

Toll Roads , Bridges and Tunnels Regulations

Shipment of hazardous materials over toll roads, bridges, and tunnels may be subject to regulations in addition to state requirements. Many toll roads, bridges, and tunnels are governed by separate authorities with power to regu- late hazardous materials transport. Most of these authorities were created by State legislatures, and their activities are restricted to particular facili- ties within that State. State statutes grant most authorities the power to raise their own funds. Their ability to issue regulations is also derived from State statutes.

Toll road authorities can enact detailed rules, including those requiring permits and insurance for transporting certain materials. As a result, these authorities have promulgated more stringent regulations than the State and Federal standards for the transport of hazardous materials. Some au- thorities are even empowered to ban certain materials from the facilities under their control.

The Federal Government has also created similar authorities to govern bi-state facilities and international bridges . These were authorized by Federal statute (9)

According to a compendium published by the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association in 1974, there were 20 authorities in 16 States governing 48 toll roads, 41 bodies governing 104 bridges, and 9 authorities in charge of 1 1 tunnels (10). This compendium also lists the restrictions and regulations imposed by those bodies on their transportation facilities for shipping radioactive materials (Table 1). A DOT guide also summarizes restrictions for specific highways in 21 States, many of which are controlled by these independent authorities. This summary provides information on types of cargo allowed on specific facilities and conditions or restrictions on its

-18- i 1 i

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-19- passage (11). For example, in California the carrier must have enough insur- ance to cover potential damages to State facilities before crossing the Benicia Martinez Bridge on 1-680, and on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge specific flammable liquids are prohibited. Restrictions on New York City's Goethals Bridge allow any type of hazardous cargo across but only at certain periods of the day.

The regulations governing transport of hazardous materials through tun- nels are equally diverse. The Memorial Tunnel on the West Virginia Turn- pike allows all hazardous cargos to pass through without restrictions; while the Eisenhower Memorial Tunnel in 1-70 west of Idaho Springs, Colorado, allows no hazardous materials unless the Loveland pass is closed- -at which time they are allowed through under strict, controlled conditions. Between the spectrum of no control and total prohibition are such regulations as: the Houston, Texas Washburn Tunnel, which allows only radioactive materials; the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, which allows small quantities of com- pressed gas and combustibles; and Virginia's Big Walker Mountain Tunnel, which allows only compressed gas, combustibles, and poisons. Other tunnel, bridge, and roadway authorities have still different variations of these regu- lations. However, the above examples serve to emphasize that these author- ities are generally somewhat more restrictive than State or Federal regulat- ing bodies.

Implications of Toll Roads , Bridges , and Tunnels Regulation

Toll road, bridge, and tunnel authorities have been able to enact more detailed and stringent regulations for hazardous materials transportation than Federal and State lawmakers. This may result from basic structural dif- ferences between an independent highway facility authority and a government body. Due to their degree of independence, facility authorities have few of the political considerations that can complicate and delay governmental law or rule making processes. Toll facility authorities have no direct constituen- cies to serve and thus operate in a more insulated regulatory environment.

Facility authorities also have a necessarily limited jurisdiction, reliev- ing them of the responsibility of creating comprehensive regulations. Re- quired only to regulate hazardous materials transportation on a limited num- ber of facilities, such authorities can generate rules conforming to the specific needs of these facilities. On the other hand, government bodies must consider vast numbers of facilities varying widely in characteristics, and they also have responsibility for businesses and consumers who rely on efficient commercial shipment.

-20- The limited jurisdiction of facility authorities makes it easier for them to enforce regulations . The nature of toll roads , bridges , and tunnels is such that they have limited and controlled access points routinely staffed and patrolled.

Toll roads, bridges, and tunnels are often financed privately from bond sales and are thus major private investments needing protection. Possible interruption of service or extensive damages caused by hazardous materials accidents, and resulting financial losses provide increased incentive for stringent regulations. Another factor is insurance considerations for these facilities.

An examination of the specific rules of these authorities suggests that while the respective authorities do not agree on specific criteria for- rout- ing hazardous materials, they have nevertheless explicitly or implicitly em- phasized certain criteria. Explicit criteria include the insurance require- ments of the carrier and the time of day rules. The insurance requirement assures the authority that the carrier can afford repair costs if a mishap occurs. Allowing the hazardous materials transport only at a certain time of day or after other traffic is stopped shows direct concern with hazardous materials vehicle exposure to other vehicles.

Implicit criteria may include, for example, prohibiting flammables- -which might suggest a lack of proper response equipment for a tunnel or structural concern for a bridge. Allowing only specific quantities of material might sug- gest that the authorities have calculated the probable consequences of certain hazardous materials and are convinced that their facility can withstand a potential mishap involving the specified quantity of material. The diversity of regulations suggests that risk may be perceived differently or that the communities served by the facility are economically dependent on the trans- port of the material. Regardless of the reasoning behind these diverse rules, one factor is clear: any guidance provided in this project must deal with the type and amount of hazardous material and be flexible enough to be used by a wide range of facility operators.

Local Ordinances and Regulations

In addition to the examination of Federal and State statutes and the applic able regulations, nine cities were selected randomly to determine what types of ordinances and restrictions might be encountered at the local level. The cities were chosen on the basis of their geography, size, interstate routes within their territorial boundaries, and previous knowledge of regulations per- taining to hazardous materials accidents. In accordance with these criteria, cognizant agencies were contacted in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York City, Portland, Providence, Salt Lake City, and Savannah.

-21- Baltimore (12)

The city of Baltimore is empowered to enact laws and regulations relating to the transportation of hazardous materials • Furthermore , the Commissioner of Transit and Traffic in Baltimore has the power to establish routing restric- tions. All carriers of hazardous materials must comply with the existing truck routes designated in the city. Baltimore once had specific restrictions concerning the roads hazardous materials carriers may use , but residents of those streets objected to this form of routing. As a result, the city now re- quires a permit only for carriers of explosives. When the Baltimore City police force serves as an escort to these carriers, it tries to keep hazardous materials carriers away from the vicinity of hospitals, retirement homes, and other quiet facilities.

Chicago (13)

The Bureau of Street Traffic in Chicago regulates intercity movement of hazardous materials in Chicago. It tries to follow State and Federal regula- tions based on the theory that uniformity of hazardous materials laws and regulations is a desirable goal. The Illinois Department of Transportation has designated truck routes through Chicago. According to Traffic Regulations of the city of Chicago, Chapter 27, Municipal Code (27-334-341), trucks can use the closest means of getting to a facility. But the Bureau of Street Traf- fic has indicated its hope that carriers with hazardous materials would cir- cumvent the city of Chicago whenever feasible.

Dallas (14)

A major rail transportation accident involving hazardous materials, re- sulting in $5 million of property damage in Dallas, encouraged the formation of a committee headed by the Dallas Fire Department. The committee's duties were to investigate the practices of hazardous materials transporta- tion and make subsequent recommendations. During the study, the committee discovered what they interpreted as a dearth of regulations in the area of hazardous materials transportation.

Pursuant to the Advisory Committee's recommendations, Dallas passed Ordinance No. 1594, empowering the Fire Department and other Dallas peace officers to enforce the following regulations:

. Hazardous materials carriers are prohibited frdm traveling:

. on any road that has to be excavated below ground level (cuts); .

. on high overheads; and

. in tunnels

. Otherwise, carriers of hazardous materials must stay on the inter- state highways and cannot enter the city limits unless making a local delivery.

Los Angeles (15)

Los Angeles currently has no specific routing restrictions for hazardous materials. Although it is in the process of establishing regulations restricting the movement of hazardous materials within the city, certain weight restrictions apply to all trucks whether or not they are carrying hazardous materials . Com- mercial streets are favored over residential streets for truck routes, and restrictions also apply in terms of times of day and traffic situations.

New York (16)

The New York City Department of Transportation has promulgated only one regulation in the area of transportation of hazardous materials. Subsec- tion 158 of Article 15 of the New York City Traffic Regulations establishes certain route requirements for carriers of radioactive materials.

158. Transportation of Radioactive Materials

Shipments of radioactive materials meeting or exceeding the specifications of "large quantities" and/or "fissile Class III" as specified by the Interstate Commerce Commission and the Atomic Energy Commission, shall follow the same truck routes designated for vehicles having an overall length of 33 feet or more, in Article 16 of the New York City Traffic Regulations.

In addition to the Department of Transportation's regulation, the City's Department of Health has promulgated one of the most significant local reg- ulations in the field of hazardous materials transportation. Section 175.111 became effective on January 15, 1976, and effectively forbids the transpor- tation of most nuclear fuel cycle materials in or through the city. The New York law is an interdiction of truck traffic in radioactive materials from facilities on Long Island, New York, through the city to destinations in other States. Section 175.111 led to a denial of Injunctive Relief in the Federal District Court for the Southern District of New York and an inconsistency ruling by DOT as to whether Section 175.111 is inconsistent with, and thus pre-empted by, the HMTA or regulations issued thereunder (17). In the injunction action, the Federal Government argued that Section 175.111 was

-23- preempted under the Supremacy Clause and the Commerce Clause of the United States Constitution, and by the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 and the regulations issued under that Act.

On April 4, 1978, DOT held that Section 175.111 was not inconsistent with the requirements contained in the text of the HMTA. Express preemption under Section 112 of the HMTA occurs upon the existence of mutually inconsis- tent HMTA and State or local requirements . Thus , DOT held that Section 175.111 of the New York Health Code was valid and enforceable.

Portland (18)

Portland has no routing regulations but is considering studying the trans- portation of hazardous materials . No structured program currently exists in Portland.

Providence (19)

The city of Providence has not promulgated any regulations in the area of hazardous materials transportation.

Salt Lake City (20)

Salt Lake City had a law that restricted the carriers of corrosives or flammable substances to certain streets in the city. Furthermore, the law applied 49 CFR 397.9 to Salt Lake City. However, the courts in Utah ruled that these city ordinances were preempted by the State. The court held that the State is supposed to set hazardous materials routes through the cities. As of June 1979, the State of Utah has not established specific routing guide- lines for Salt Lake City.

Savannah (21)

The city of Savannah has not enacted any law or regulation on the subject of hazardous materials transportation. Presently, the only enforceable rout- ing restrictions in Savannah are those already established for all trucks. These restrictions apply to residential streets and streets in the historical areas of Savannah.

Analysis of Local Regulations

Local regulation of hazardous materials transportation varies greatly in substance and extent. City governments face jurisdictional questions, partic- ularly when dealing with State or interstate highways . One city contacted has no jurisdiction over interstate highways within its boundaries. Another city's

-24- .

regulations were struck down after a court ruled that routing regulations are a State function. Such jurisdictional questions will be decided by the form of State constitutions, laws, and judicial interpretation.

Only two of the nine cities studied have enacted their own routing restric- tions. NRC's new regulation will probably affect New York's ban on radio- active materials transportation. The Dallas regulations, enacted after a major rail accident, are strict but general in nature. Some cities are empowered to issue regulations but have not done so up to now.

Although city governments are becoming increasingly aware of the need for hazardous materials routing guidelines, the relationships of cities to the Federal and State governments may complicate the regulation of hazardous materials routing at this level. Finally, from the local perspective, it would seem that there are many regulations; in fact, an examination of the substance of many of the regulations has shown just the opposite. Also, Baltimore's experience with moving a hazardous materials route after hearing citizens' objections suggests the need for citizen input in the decision process regarding hazardous materials route selection.

Variable Factors

One of the central themes of this study was to identify and prioritize the numerous variable factors that can affect hazardous materials route selec- tion. Table 2 presents a list of potential variable routing factors that apply to highway and traffic conditions

Unfortunately, highway transport of hazardous materials has only recently become the subject of heightened public concern, and thus the body of prior research in this field is limited. Based on existing research, there is no uniform or reliable method to determine which of the factors in Table 2 are the most important roadway factors for hazardous materials route selection. The study addresses this inadequacy by presenting a process for determin- ing which of the variable factors should be included as route selection criteria. In addition to variable roadway factors that might contribute to the likelihood of an accident, routes should be designated on the basis of what the potential consequences would be if there were an accident. The concept of consequence variables and their priorities will be explored fully in Section 3 . The remain- der of Section 2 will present an analysis of roadway variable factors and their role in the route selection process.

The fundamental question associated with this aspect of the study is: which roadways are characterized by above-average hazardous materials accident rates ? This question may be addressed by reviewing data already collected

-25- TABLE 2

VARIABLE ROADWAY FACTORS

Traffic Conditions Road Conditions Hazardous Materials Transport

ADT Grade, curvature, Trip origin and destination access, speed Traffic density by limit, shoulder Type and quantity of hazardous time of day/day width materials (including packaging, of week magnitude, and nature of potential Conditions under threat to life and property) Accident and inci- adverse weather dent rates conditions: icing, Vehicle type used to transport fog, wet Average travel Driver perceptions (including speeds ease of use of a route; benefits/ disbenefits such as time costs; Traffic mix Street width turns, circuity, and signing)

Speed variance Pavement condition Economics of routing Stops at signalized (including equipment utiliza- intersections Number of inter- tion", mileage, travel time, sections costs)

Traffic controls

Traffic operation (1-way, 2-way)

Parking

-26- for a locale or by using the methodology presented below which relies on pre- dictive models and accident data collected at the national level. In all cases, the study recommends using local data first and then nationally derived infor- mation as default parameters for communities lacking the required informa- tion. For communities that do not know the accident rates on their roadways, the study searched the literature to determine which roadway features are most likely to cause an accident. On the basis of this information the hazar- dous materials route could be designated to avoid particularly dangerous road- ways and thereby reduce accident probabilities. The approach used to identify these dangerous roadway features and geometries was, first, to review the literature and, second, to convene a panel meeting of knowledgeable persons and solicit their opinions. The findings from these two tasks were subsequently used to select predictive models for forecasting the likelihood of an accident given certain highway conditions . Each step of the chronology is discussed in detail below.

Literature Review

A limited amount of work has been done to date relating the probability of a truck accident to the traffic environment or roadway design. Since the focus of this task was to identify factors that can be realistically controlled (or avoided), studies identifying drivers, vehicles, or the weather as causes were not useful. Only two sources were found which analyzed truck accidents and roadway geometries (22) (23). One (22) was of little value because only a few specific accident types were investigated, and it was not possible to generalize these findings to a wider class of accidents. The other study (23) was also of limited value, as the report is in draft form and its specific find- ings are unavailable.

Because of the lack of information on truck accidents and their roadway- related causes, it was necessary to rely on accident data that had been col- lected for both automobiles and trucks (not stratified by vehicle type). Al- though this approach has certain obvious limitations, a lack of data on the causes of hazardous materials accidents led the contractor to make the as- sumption that roadway and traffic conditions that result in above average accident rates for all vehicles pose a similar threat for trucks alone.

The literature review revealed two general areas of investigation in acci- dent rate research. One centered around primary observations on specific roadway types and calculations of the number of accidents per million vehicle- miles on those segments. The observations were made on segments with

similar geometries (e.g. , curved sections of rural highways) and were often stratified by ADT levels. The value of this technique is its straightforward and understandable methodology; the disadvantage is the limited number of simultaneous influences which can be considered. Most of the explanatory

-27- relationships were essentially bivariate, i.e., accident rates as a function of one roadway characteristic (24) (25) (26). Table 3 presents representative findings on accident rates that can be associated with specific roadway geo- metries for three roadway types. Unfortunately, this information did not suit the needs of the study as there was no acceptable way to combine these accident rates for roadways possessing numerous characteristics within the same segment.

The other body of research in accident causation is the specification and calibration of multi-variate regression models. These models attempt to predict accident rates on the basis of several roadway and traffic conditions. Essentially, they are based on observations of segments with several features. By combining the observed accident rates which occurred under varying condi- tions, the model assigns a weight to the influence of each characteristic. Al- though the reliability and precision of these models is subject to debate, they offer the only method for comprehensive accident analysis. Therefore, acci- dent rate predictive models that may be used in the probability methodology are discussed in detail below. The findings from the panel meeting were used to help identify which variables in Table 2 were most important and should be included in the models.

Panel Ranking of Factors

To determine the relative importance of factors that might influence the selection of hazardous materials routes, a multi-disciplinary panel was con- vened and panelists were asked to make paired comparisons among the range of possible route selection factors in order to determine which are most impor- tant. Factors were weighted for several hazardous materials topics, including: hazardous materials accident causes, carrier compliance with hazardous materials routings, and roadway characteristics as hazardous materials accident causes. The 13 panel members included representatives from Fed- eral, State and Local governments and the motor-carrier industry. Panel members were chosen to provide a wide range of perspectives as well as to represent the various interests that might be affected by hazardous materials routing decisions. Panel members who work at the City level included a Fire Chief, a Civil Defense and Emergency Preparedness representative, a traffic engineer, and a community planner. Two of the State-level panel members were responsible for hazardous materials transportation within their respec- tive states. One panel member is the safety director for a major hazardous materials tank truck carrier company. Federal representatives were drawn from the MTB, Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety (BMCS), and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Results from the accident cause ranking exercises are presented below.

-28- TABLE 3

ACCIDENT RATES AND GEOMETRIC FEATURES (ACCIDENTS/MILLION VEHICLE—MILES)

TRAFFIC * ROAPWAV CHARACTERISTICS INTERSTATEffREEWAYS RURAL MMHWAY8 URBAN ARTERIAL8 CHARACTERISTIC STRATIFICATION ACT WWW u±a_ UlbwW-U 2-1 -±Uffi_ _tya 24. M£L MJ 1.12 2,12 14 242 2444 42 141 141 2.11 2X0 44-74 44 144 2.1* 241 1.72 441 I4-1S4 41 144 2.71 241 248 746 44* iwms4 41 14* 241 •42 S44 M 14* 2.4* •.It M.0414 244 szo-ru 147 714 source «2D

2-1 44JUJ 444P) »UU) 4-UP) TJ3" 1.41 -14T 41-14 141 141 141-24 2.14 242 241 241 14144 2.71 247 4.70 141 141-114 140 7.12 •41 1.71 11414M 1242 Ml

24. _±ug_ J2£L 444U) 4-UP) 141 241 142 244 41-14 141 241 141 •41 141-104 240 2.14 241 4.11 141 1041-204 1.71 1.74 141 1041-404 141 142 1.11 7.10 4041404 (.14 1041 •041-110 12.11

SOURCE: <2S) id Cumttn 24. 4-UU) **m 1» 044 14 14 14 1*4* 1-14 24 24 24 24 14 1.1 10 14 14 1.7

•ounce: am •OUNCE: 0«)

24. 44JU) **m

2 1 24 2.7 24 14 144* 24 24 24 4441 24 24 24 •44* 1.1 24 14 24 24 14 27 1.7 24 14

•OUNCE: (2» SOURCE: CM)

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NOTE: Alt Ft—«yl NOTE: 2-L Onty SOURCE: CM) SOURCE: (24)

-29- -

Accident Causes

The panel ranked hazardous materials driver error and environmental con- ditions (weather, lighting, etc.) as the two most important causes of hazard- ous materials accidents. Some panelists also felt that "other motorists" were more important than the group ranking of fourth out of five. Roadway charac- teristics ranked third, and subsequent discussions indicated that this factor was relatively unimportant in the overall context of hazardous materials acci- dent causes (see Table 4). Of the three major factors that might be responsi- ble for an accident- -driver, vehicle, or operating conditions- -the driver is widely recognized in the literature as the most frequent single reason. How- ever, this research effort only addresses the roadway operating conditions. Other federal agencies are or will be addressing these other aspects. The panel's consensus that roadway characteristics were not major accident causes supports the previous statement that in the overall context of accident analysis, the scope of this project addressed only a portion of the total hazardous material transport issue.

It is noteworthy that the two factors strongly influenced by government- roadway design and vehicle performance (through safety inspections)- -rank low as explanatory variables for hazardous materials accidents. Two possible explanations are: (1) that government has been successful in designing safe roads and prohibiting unsafe vehicles from operating, and (2) that human be- havior is so variable that driver performance is the overriding consideration and roadway and vehicle characteristics are insignificant by comparison.

Another objective of this study was to attempt to identify components of the hazardous materials transport system where small improvements might pro- duce large safety gains. Because the panel rated roadway design relatively unimportant as an accident cause, routing criteria based principally on road- way characteristics may not significantly affect accident rates. If routing regulations are unlikely to greatly reduce accident probabilities, attention should be focused on ways to anticipate and respond'to accidental hazardous materials releases. This finding implies that more weight should be placed on the "consequences" than the "probability" component of the risk equation.

Roadway Characteristics

Roadway characteristics that panel members considered most likely to cause a hazardous materials accident were typically those factors which required vehicle maneuverability and short braking distances. Specifically, roadways characterized by intersections, frequent stops, businesses, turns, high traf- fic density, and high travel speeds were felt to be the most dangerous. Table 5 presents the panel's roadway feature rankings.

-30- TABLE 4

PANEL RANKING OF ACCIDENT CAUSES

FACTOR RANK

Hazardous materials driver error 1

Environment (weather, lighting) 2

Roadway design and characteristics 3

Other motorist error 4

Hazardous materials vehicle performance 5

NOTE: The factors ware ranked according to the likelihood of their contributing to a hazardous materials motor carrier accident; the number 1 rank is for the most Important factor. TABLES

PANEL RANKING OF ROADWAY CHARACTERISTICS AS ACCIDENT CAUSES

RANK All Select* FACTOR Panel Panel Members Members

Intersections 1 1

Actual travel speeds 2 5

Traffic density (ADT) 3 2

Business along roadway 4 3 Topography (grades, curves) 5 4 Structures (bridges, ramps) 6 8

Absence of shoulders 7 7

Absence of median 8 6

Number of lanes 9 9 Pavement surface 10 10

NOTE: The factors were ranked according to the likelihood of their contributing to a hazardous

materials motor carrier accident; the number 1 rank Is for the most important factor. (The factors apply to non-interstate highways only.)

• Subset within the panel of traffic engineers and persons knowledgable about truck operations.

-32- When the rankings of a subset of traffic engineers and persons knowledge- able about truck operations were computed, some substantial differences be- came apparent. For example, the subset ranked topography (curves and grades) as a much greater threat (ranked second) than travel speeds (ranked fifth). These rankings reflect the belief that a truck changing course is more likely to have an accident than one increasing its speed but proceeding straight. The "business along roadway" factor was also ranked higher by the select group than by the entire panel, presumably because the uncontrolled access and egress would create more need for maneuvering and stopping. Both groups put shoulders, medians, number of lanes, and pavement surface in the bottom half of the rankings.

ACCIDENT RATE MODELS

The study research and recommendations of the panel led to the conclusion that the relative safety of alternative routes could be determined by using multi-variate models which predict accident rates as a function of roadway features. (This assumes that historical accident rates are not available.) The variables cited consistently in the model literature as the most important factors in accident analysis were related to traffic conflicts and situations that demanded driver interactions, i.e., intersections and traffic volumes. The following discussion traces the review of possible models and the ration- ale for final model selection.

Model Selection and Evaluation

Because of the highly unpredictable nature of accidents, attempts to model their underlying causative relationships are constrained by the erratic and subtle influences which may cause accidents in some situations and not others. The same combination of physical factors may be present when an accident does or does not occur. It is thus not a simple matter to fit accident behavior to mathematical models. Taking into account these limitations, the study en- deavored to find models that produce consistent and intuitively correct pre- dictions. Another criterion in model selection was ease of application and use of readily available data. Table 6 is a summary of some of the models re- jected because of their complexity, poor predictive powers, unusual data requirements, etc.

In the final analysis, three different models were chosen to predict acci- dent rates on the following three roadway types:

. interstates;

. urban arterials; and

. rural highways.

-33- 1

TABLE 6 MODELS REJECTED FOR PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS

DEPENDENT INDEPENDENT MODEL VARIABLES VARIABLES N R' COMMENTS

Interstate Accident • Total Accident •ADT • 1955-1967 9 models: • Poor predictive Research Study- Rate • unit length • 39 states .237/.117/.149 ability (1970) • years since l-S • 7,000 miles each .221 M 51 /.1 81

• opening In l-S, rural ft .053/.024/.145 SOURCE: (25) • # businesses/mile urban • # Intersections/mile • 90 billion vehicle- • Interaction terms miles

Accident Rates/ • Total accident • ADT .03 mile segments All modele end • Rural only Design Elements ol rate • Grade (<4%<) Ohio - 46,591 coefficient reported Rural Highways • One-vehicle • Intersections (one Fla. 25,800 are significantly (1968) accident rate or more) Conn. - 6,572 different from • Multi-vehicle • Structure (one or O at P - .05 SOURCE: (29) accident rate • more) • Injury-producing • Medlen accident rate •# lanes (Includes total) • Access control • Curve (4%)

Cost ft Safety • Total accidents • Shoulder width Complete data Low . . . usually • Statistical Effectiveness of • PDO • Shoulder surface bases for Maryland, less than .08 validity suspect

Highway Design • Injury ft Fatal • Pavement width New York, and Elements • Terrain Washington (1978) • Number of lanee • Urban/rural SOURCE: (32) • ADT • Horizontal curve

Environmental • Number of • Traffic volume • 13,498 accidents .89/.S9 • Data requirements Determinants of accidents • Percent of • 135 two-mile .S9/.88 too complex Traffic Accidents: • Accident rates developed frontage long segments .69 An Alternate Model • Percent of (1974) commercial frontage SOURCE: (33) • Percent of population be- tween 16 end 24 • Population density • Road type

Effects of Roadwey • Injury accident • ADT • 92 sections from .69 • Requires "access

ft Operational Char- rate • Intersections/mile 1 to 32 miles long AH variables In point Index" acterlstlcs on • Fatal accident rata • Signalized Inter- • 6,417 accidents final model calculation Accidents on Multi- • Total accident rate section s/mlls significant Lane Highways • Openings (excl. In- (1967) tersectlons/mlle) • Medlen width SOURCE: (34) • Speed limit • "Access point Index"

-34- .

These three models are intended for use if the analyst lacks superior local knowledge. Models which have been developed locally or calibrated to local conditions will probably produce more accurate results. The three models were chosen for the study to provide the reader with a readily available reference for estimating accident rates. Similarly, the models which were rejected for universal application may prove better suited to a particular community's needs.

Interstate Model

This model predicts accident rates on the basis of average daily traf- fic (ADT) volumes (27). ADT has proved a reasonably good predictor of accidents on interstates, probably because of the high design standards on interstates and the general lack of variation in geometries. Thus, most acci- dents on interstates appear to be related to traffic conditions rather than to roadway characteristics (28).

Urban Arterial Model

A multi-variate linear regression model was chosen from the literature to predict accident rates on urban arterials (30). Urban arterials are major streets within urbanized areas that typically experience high traffic volumes

and generally lack access controls . The urban arterial model predicts the annual number of accidents per mile on a segment based upon the ADT, number of heavy volume intersections per mile, and number of signalized intersections per mile. A conversion factor is used to change annual accidents per mile to accidents per million vehicle-miles

Rural Highway Model

The rural highway model is specified to account for three variables: ADT, average highway speed (AHS), and terrain (27). AHS is defined as the highest average overall safe and comfortable speed attainable under light traffic con- ditions without exceeding the posted speed limits. In general, AHS equals the posted speed limit. The model uses three categories of terrain, as de- fined by the Highway Capacity Manual: level, rolling, and mountainous (31). (See Reference (31) for terrain definitions).

All three models are discussed in greater detail below.

DETERMINING THE PROBABILITY OF A HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACCIDENT

The technique developed from the above analysis to determine the proba- bility of a hazardous materials accident uses the accident rate for all vehicles

-35- and subsequently factors that rate to reflect the much smaller share of haz- ardous materials vehicles in the traffic stream. The factor used to adjust total accident probabilities to hazardous materials accident probabilities was derived by dividing the number of hazardous materials accidents reported to the MTB during a 4 1/2 year period by the total number of vehicles accidents during the same period. Accident rates in themselves are not probabilities until they are adjusted to reflect the amount of exposure a vehicle experiences. Not all motorists face the same likelihood of being involved in an accident because the number of miles they drive varies. The sequence of steps to determine the probability of a hazardous materials accident is as follows:

. Determine the accident rate for all vehicles on a particular roadway type.

. Calculate the probability of an accident for any vehicle based on vehicle exposure (same as roadway length).

. Factor the probability statement for any vehicle to reflect the incidence of hazardous materials vehicles in the traffic stream.

The general form of the probability equation is:

P (H.M. Accident) = (All Vehicle Accidents/ Vehicle-Mile)x(Segment Vehicle-Miles/Vehicle)x(H.M. Accidents/All Vehicle Accidents)

The basic component of the probability calculation is the accident rate for a given segment or the number of accidents per million vehicle-miles (acc/mvm) Accident rates are often available from State or local highway departments. Alternatively, accident rates may be predicted using the models presented below if the rates are not available from historical data. The study recom- mends that historical data on accident rates be used whenever possible to preserve the greatest amount of accuracy in the risk analysis. However,, if observed accident rates are used on one route and compared to the predicted rates on an alternative route, the analyst should be aware of possible biases and try to compensate for potential over- or under-predictions by the models when applied in a particular community. This limitation is due to the level of precision of the predictive models and the underlying nature of the risk analysis technique. The risk values ultimately calculated for each route have limited meaning as absolute numbers; rather, it is the relative values that are important. If the calculated probability of a hazardous materials accident on one route is higher than on another route, the question of which route is more dangerous can only be answered if the analyst is confident that the pre- dicted values are truly representative of actual conditions.

The probability component of the risk equation is based on the total acci- dent rate for all vehicles. The ideal measure would be the accident rate for

-36- hazardous materials carriers or trucks in general. Unfortunately, this in- formation was not available, and total accident rates for all vehicles was chosen as the best alternative. Efforts to use only injury producing accident rates or fatal accident rates were unsuccessful because of an inability to relate hazardous materials releases to injury or fatal accidents versus total accidents. Because even under basically similar conditions, widely varying circumstances can result in serious damage in one accident and relatively minor damage in another, the study chose to use total accident rates and not attempt to hypothesize relationships for which no data could be developed to substantiate or refute them.

The following sections present a methodology to calculate hazardous materials accident probabilities and identify the data required for these calcu- lations. The methodology is presented step by step; it begins by identifying the potential alternatives and segmenting the routes into components which can be conveniently analyzed.

(1) Identify Alternatives and Segment Routes

Identify Alternative Routes

With the aid of regional road maps, a first-cut should be made at identify- ing those routes which: appear to satisfy community objectives; are reasonably compatible with existing hazardous materials trucking practices; and are void of physical mandatory factors which preclude their use. Limitations on staff time will preclude analyses of all potential alternatives, and this subjective selection of routes to be analyzed relies on a knowledge of local demography, roadways, and traffic conditions. The general rule-of-thumb to be followed at this stage in the analysis for the through transport of hazardous materials is to route them as much as possible on interstates because of their better safety records and away from populated areas. The analyst shoud be wary of excluding potential alternatives arbitrarily but must make some subjective judgements at this point to reduce the number of options to a manageable list.

Segment Routes

The purpose of segmentation is to divide the routes into discrete segments which can be analyzed more easily. The first criterion for segmentation is roadway functional type. The three categories to be used are:

. interstate;

. urban arterials; and

. rural highways.

-37- Within the interstate category, segments should be divided into two groups; urban areas, and suburban/rural areas.

The second criterion for segmentation is census tract boundaries. These boundaries should be considered concurrently with traffic volume data (and the way the data are recorded along the route) or accident rates (and the seg- ments for which accident rate data have been collected) . Segment boundaries should be coordinated for the roadway probability data and census population data to facilitate the risk calculations which follow. Because risk is calculated by multiplying the accident probability times the number of people exposed, it is important to calculate the values for each component of the risk equation based on the same segment boundaries.

After the accident rate methodology has been selected, routes are seg- mented within each roadway functional type whenever large changes in ADT or accident rates are observed. Thus, if the accident rate changes by + 25 percent or more between segments designated by the recording agency, these segments will be logical breakpoints for the risk analysis. Likewise, if ADT changes of similar magnitude are observed, the analyst should segment the route to represent these varying traffic conditions without creating ex- cessive detail. Although the risk calculations are relatively straightforward, it is recommended that route segments range from 2 to 10 miles in length and that no more segments be designated than necessary, in order to minimize the number of subsequent calculations.

(2) Calculate Accident Rates

Secondary Data Sources

If accident rates are available from direct observations on all route seg- ments, the analyst should use these values rather than the predicted values which can be determined using the models presented below. Accident rates on major roadways are typically available from State, regional, or local transportation agencies.

Whether the analyst uses accident rates directly or predicts them on the basis of ADT and other variables depends on data availability. This is dis- cussed below under "Calculate Accident Rates," which should be read carefully before the routes are segmented to prevent unnecessary duplication of effort

(e.g. , segmenting the routes on the basis of ADT data and subsequently discovering that accident rates are available but for different segment boun- daries.)

-38- .

Predictive Models

Accident rates may be calculated using one of the following three linear regression models: interstate, urban arterial, or rural highway. These models were chosen after a thorough literature review on the basis of statis- tical reliability and ease of application. Data requirements for the models are not thought to be excessive but may require some fieldwork, depending on the availability and quality of local traffic data and maps

Interstate Model (27)

This model predicts accident rates on the basis of ADT volumes. ADT counts are normally available from either State or local traffic engineers. Traffic volumes may also be gathered through field observation although this process is time-consuming and expensive. The general form of the interstate accident rate equation is:

y = a + bx

where

y = accidents per million vehicle-miles (accidents/mvm) a = a constant b = regression coefficient x = average annual daily traffic (in thousands)

Table 7 presents the model constants and coefficients for interstates of varying widths and in different areas . Urban areas are defined as having a population of 5,000 or more. Suburban is defined as in urban area but not within a city's limits. All other areas are considered rural. For exam- ple, to calculate the accident rate on a 6-lane, urban interstate with average ADT of 80,000 vehicles, the equation would be:

y = .80 + .011(80) or y = 1.68 accidents/mvm

*See Appendix H for additional description of predictive equations

-39- TABLE 7 PREDICTIVE PARAMETERS FOR INTERSTATE EQUATIONS

CATEGORY CONSTANT (a) COEFFICIENT (b)

Rural / Suburban

4-lane (ADT>15,000) 0.83 0.007 6 -lane 0.45 0.012 8 -lane 0.42 0.007

Urban

4-lane 0.80 0.020 6 -lane 0.80 0.011 8 -lane 0.73 0.007 10 -lane 0.16 0.010

SOURCE: (27)

Urban Arterial Model (30)

A multi-variate linear regression model is used to predict accident rates on urban arterials (30). Urban arterials are defined as major streets within urbanized areas that typically experience high traffic volumes and generally lack access controls. The general form of the equation is:*

= -0.261 + 1.256 Xj + 3.909 + 6.086 y x 2 x 3 where

y = number of accidents per mile annually x^ = volume (ADT) in thousands of vehicles x = of intersections per mile (inter- 2 number heavy volume sections with arterial streets) X3 = number of signalized intersections per mile

The model predicts annual accidents per mile rather than accidents per mil- lion vehicle-miles. To convert to an accident rate, the predicted y value is divided by ADT times 365 days /year:

y(acc/mi/yr) 6 x 10 = (acc/mvm) ADT(veh/day) x 365 (days/yr) *

-40- . ,

Rural Highway Model (27)

The rural highway model is specified with three independent variables: ADT, AHS, and terrain. AHS is defined as the highest average overall safe and comfortable speed attainable under light traffic conditions without exceed- ing the posted speed limits. In general, AHS equals the posted speed limit. Three categories of terrain are also used in the model: level, rolling, and mountainous (31).

The rural highway model was calibrated on accident rates and travel con- ditions for a conventional two-lane uncontrolled access highway with rolling terrain and AHS greater than 55 mph. The general form of the equation for the base case is:*

y = 1.87 + 0.65/x

where

y = number of accidents per million vehicle-miles x = average annual daily traffic (in thousands)

The variables terrain and AHS are used as factors to reflect the influence of variations in these characteristics on the base case. Thus, when the terrain is level the total accident rate should be decreased by 20 percent; in moun- tainous terrain it should be increased by 40 percent. When average highway speeds are equal to or less than 55, the predicted accident rate should be increased by 80 percent (reflecting the fact that more dangerous roads will have lower AHS). Table 8 summarizes the rural highway prediction equation and adjustment factors

TABLE 8 RURAL HIGHWAY PREDICTIVE PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTMENT FACTORS

BASE CASE TERRAIN FACTORS AHS FACTORS

CATEGORY EQUATION FLAT ROLL MOUNT. ^55 ;» 55

Rural 2-lane y = 1.87 + 0.65 -0.20 0.0 +0.40 +0.80 0.0 Conventional X

SOURCE: (27)

*See Appendix H for additional description of predictive equations

-41- Roadway Inventory Worksheet

Worksheet 1 (Table 9) is structured to record the necessary roadway data

for the segments comprising each alternative route . Some of the columns are only relevant for particular roadway types, and the data required for each segment are a function of the predictive model to be used. The segments are numbered to assist in keeping track of them during the calculations. One technique is to assign each alternative route a number and each segment within the route a letter (e.g. , 1-A, 1-B, 1-C; 2-A, 2-B, 2-C, etc.). A large part of the data can be gathered from secondary sources such as city or State traf- fic counts, roadway classification maps, USGS topographic maps, etc. Other variables, such as the number of signalized intersections per mile, may be more easily collected through observation. None of the data requirements for the predictive models are exotic , and the analyst should have little trouble assembling this information. Obviously, if the accident rates are available from a transportation agency, it is only necessary to fill in columns 1,2, 5, and 11 (12 is optional), as the information requested in the other columns is for estimating accident rates.

(3) Convert Accident Rates to Probability Statements

The probability of any vehicle being involved in an accident on a specified segment is calculated by multiplying the segment accident rate times its length (or amount of exposure). On Worksheet 1, this is the product of column 5 times column 11. The general form of the equation is:

P (Accident on Segment i) = x^ accidents/vehicle-mile x 1^ mile

where

Xj is the segment accident rate*; and L is the segment length in miles.

For example, the probability of any vehicle being involved in an accident on a roadway segment which is 3 miles (4.8 km) long and has an accident rate of 2.0 accidents/mvm is:

P(accident segment i) = 2.0 accidents/mvm x 3.0 v-m/v

or

b P(accident segment i) = 6.0 x 10~ accidents/vehicle.

*Note: The accident rate is expressed in accidents per vehicle-mile rather than accidents per million vehicle-miles.

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-43- APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODOLOGY TO WASHINGTON, D.C. CASE STUDY

Introduction

The Washington Metropolitan area is served by several interstates, including a circumferential beltway. The SMSA population in 1970 was 2.9 million, and dense residential development has occurred along many parts of the interstates serving the downtown area (particularly 1-395). Residential development has also occurred along the Beltway, with heavy concentrations in Northern Virginia and less activity to the east in Prince George's County.

For purposes of the case study, truck traffic was analyzed for vehicles starting from points south of Washington and bound for Route 50 in Maryland.

Each of the analytic tasks presented earlier is applied to the Washington, D.C, case study, as described below.

(1) Identify Alternatives and Segment Routes

Establish Routing Objectives

The purpose of this exercise is to select a through route for hazardous materials carriers bound for Route 50 from points south. The route selected will be the one presenting the smallest hazardous materials safety risk to area residents.

The regional highway system offers several opportunities to bypass popu- lation centers. In many instances, current trucking practices are already avoiding densely populated areas. However, food and lodging available within

Washington, D.C. , may be the cause of some of the hazardous materials trucks that have been observed passing through populated areas; other drivers may believe the more circuitous highway routes have higher time costs.

Identify Alternative Routes

Discussions with the District Department of Transportation and inspection of regional road maps led to the selection of the four alternative routes identi- fied in Figure 4. Route 50 may be reached from the south via four major highway routes:

. 1-495 (Beltway) to Route 50 (Alternative 1);

. 1-495 to 1-295 to Route 50 (Alternative 2);

-44- I

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-45- . 1-395 (Shirley Highway) to 1-295 to Route 50 (Alternative 3); and

. 1-395 to Route 50 (Alternative 4).

The last routing alternative takes trucks through downtown Washington past the Capitol Hill area. The other three alternatives are primarily interstate routes until they meet Route 50 (well outside downtown). The total travel distances of the alternatives are relatively similar, and the routes were judged to be reasonable substitutes for one another.

Identify Mandatory Routing Variables

There are no physical restrictions on hazardous materials movements on the interstates or Route 50. The District recently enacted an ordinance which prohibits hazardous cargoes from entering the highway tunnel under the Mall near the U.S. Capitol. However, this fact does not preclude evaluation of Alternative 4, as the analysis will determine which of these routes poses the smallest overall risk. Although the District has chosen to apply one criterion in designating its hazardous cargo route, the case study aims to evaluate the alternatives without precluding any options on the basis of an existing routing ordinance.

Segment Routes

The alternative routes were segmented on the basis of ADT and census tract boundaries as illustrated in Figure 5. This decision was made after contacts with State and local transportation agencies revealed that it would not be possible to obtain historical accident rate data for all roadway seg- ments .

The routes were segmented on the basis of classification schemes used by the DOTs of Virginia, Maryland, and the District to measure traffic volumes. Simultaneously, census tract maps were consulted in order to choose segment breakpoints which would allow uniform calculations of the accident probabili- ties and consequence values for the same stretch of roadway. The other seg- menting criteria was roadway type. A route was segmented at the point where the roadway type changed from interstate to urban arterial.

Accident rate data were available on most segments of the interstates. How- ever, the predictive models were used for the case study in order to assess their usefulness. In general, the predicted values corresponded well to the actual values.

-46- -47- (2) Calculate Accident Rates

Calculations for both interstate and urban arterial segments were made using the default models described earlier. Data for the models were com- piled by contacting State and city agencies as well as by on-site inspections of the alternatives. Tables 10 and 11 present the roadway inventory work- sheet and accident rate calculations, respectively, for Alternative 1. The calculations which convert accident rates to probability statements are also presented in Table 11. The accident rates for all segments of Alternative 1 are quite similar, as the whole potential hazardous materials route is an interstate highway.

Calculations for all four alternatives and their corresponding segments are presented in Appendix D, along with the roadway inventory sheets. The models 1 predictions were reasonable when applied to the other alternatives, and the predicted urban arterial accident rates were about twice as great as the predicted six -lane interstate rates. (The urban arterial in Washington has limited access from South Dakota to the Beltway and, consequently, its rates on these segments are lower than might be expected on urban arterials with uncontrolled access.)

(3) Convert Accident Rates to Probability Statements

The right-hand column in Table 11 contains the probability calculations for each of the segments in Alternative 1 . Probabilities are calculated by multiplying the accident rate times the amount of exposure (or segment length) to determine the likelihood of any vehicle being involved in an accident on that segment at any point in time. The probability calculations for the four alternatives are presented in Appendix D and summarized in Figure 6.

SUMMARY

This section documented the study's investigations in the field of accident causation, and the development of a methodology to calculate accident prob- abilities given certain roadway and traffic information. The methodology is structured to allow planners to use their own local information or, if desired, to use the default parameters and models recommended in the text. The heart of the probability calculation is the accident rate , and it is recommended that observed rates rather than predicted values be used whenever possible. However, if the observed values are unavailable, the recommended predictive models will produce results that are intuitively correct and preserve the three roadway types' relative differences in safety.

The probability values calculated for the interstate segments in the Wash- ington, D.C. , case study are quite small and reflect the overall safety of interstate highways. Large differences between most of the segments of

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-50- -51- the four alternatives were not observed because of the general similarity of the roadways and traffic conditions. High accident probability values in the case study generally reflect greater segment length (or exposure) rather than higher accident frequencies. On the basis of the probability values alone, it is impossible to make any judgements about which route is safer for hazardous materials shipments. A comprehensive analysis of the routing alternatives must include the potential consequences. The following section describes a technique for estimating the potential impacts of a hazardous materials re- lease and applies this methodology to the four routes in the case study.

-52- REFERENCES

- 1. Jennings, W. C. and Rothberg, P. F. , Hazardous Materials Transpor

tation: A Review and Analysis of DOT'S Regulatory Program , Congres- sional Research Service, the Library of Congress, prepared for the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Washing- ton, D.C., March 8, 1979.

2. Announcement of Proposed Rulemaking Highway Routing of Radioactive Materials, Docket No. HM-164, Materials Transportation Bureau, Research and Special Programs Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 43 FR 36492, August 17, 1978.

3. Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Highway Routing of Radioactive Materials, Docket No. HM-164, Notice No. 80-1, Materials Transpor- tation Bureau, Research and Special Programs Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, 49 CFR Parts 173 and 1977, January 31, 1980.

4. Telephone Interview with Carl Sawyer, Senior Protection Analyst, Regulatory Improvements Branch, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, February 14, 1980, (202) 492-7000.

5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Development of an Emergency

Response Program for Transportation of Hazardous Waste , Contract No. 68-01-3973, Envirex, Inc., Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 1979.

6. Graham, M. D. , etal., Final Report AASHTQ Task Force on the

Movement of Hazardous Materials , AASHTO Highway Subcommittee on Highway Transport, Albany, New York, December 1978, unpublished.

7. California Highway Patrol, Explosives Routes and Stopping Places , HPH 84.3, Sacramento, California, August 1973.

8. National Tank Truck Carriers, Inc. V. Edmund Burk, et al., op. al. , U.S. District Court for Rhode Island, Civil Action No. 78-0621.

9. Telephone Interview with Deborah Farmer, Research Assistant, Inter- national Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association, June 12, 1979, (202) 659-4620.

10. International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association, Compendium

of Regulations, Shipments of Radioactive Materials , Washington,

D.C. , February 1974.

-53- 11. Besselievre, W. C, Editor, A Summary of Highway Facilities Where

Hazardous Materials Are Restricted , FHWA, Washington, D.C., January 1977.

12. Telephone Interview with Official of the Baltimore Department of Transit and Traffic, June 11, 1979, (301) 396-3033.

13. Telephone Interview with Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Bureau of Street Traffic, June 11, 1979, (312) 744-4684.

14. Telephone Interview with the Inspector of the Dallas Fire Department, June 8, 1979, (214) 670-4308.

15. Telephone Interview with the Los Angeles Division Engineer, Depart- ment of Transportation, June 8, 1979, (213) 485-2755.

16. Telephone Interview with the New York City Highway Department Attor- ney, June 8. 1979, (212) 566-5448.

17. U.S. Department of Transportation, Inconsistency Ruling (IR-1) , Mater- ials Transportation Bureau, Washington, D.C., April 4, 1978.

18. Telephone Interview with the Portland, Oregon Director of the Bureau of Emergency Services, June 8, 1979, (503) 748-4580.

19. Telephone Interview with Providence City Solicitor, June 8, 1979, (401) 421-7740.

20. Telephone Interview with the Salt Lake City Traffic Engineer, June 12, 1979, (801) 535-7811.

21. Telephone Interview with the Savannah City Manager, June 8, 1979, (912) 233-9321.

22. Philipson, L. L.; Rashti, P. J.; and Fleisher, G. A.; Statistical Anal-

ysis of Commercial Vehicles Accident Factors , USDOT FHWA, 1978.

23. Vallette, G. R.; McGee, H.; Sanders, J. H.; and Enger, D. J.; The Effect of Travel Size and Weight on Accident Experience and Traffic

Operations, DRAFT , USDOT FHWA, 1979.

-54- 24. Roff, M. S.; "Interstate Highway Accident Study, " Highway Research

Board Bulletin 74 , 1953.

25. Fee, J. A., Beatty, R. L., et al.; "Interstate System Accident Re- search Study - 1," USDOT FHWA, 1970.

26. Vostrey, J. and Lundy, R.; "Comparative Freeway Study," Highway

Research Record 99 , 1965.

27. Smith, R. N.; "Predictive Parameters for Accident Rates," State of

California Division of Highways, 1973.

28. Fee, J. A.; Dietz, S. K.; and Beatty, R. L.; Analysis and Modeling of Relationships Between Accidents and the Geometric and Traffic Char-

acteristics of the Interstate System , USDOT FHWA, 1969.

29. Kihlberg, J. K. and Thorp, K. J., Accident Rates as Related to Design

Elements of Rural Highways , National Cooperatives Highway Research Program Report No. 47, 1968.

30. Mulinazzi, T. E. and Michael, Harold L.; "Correlation of Design Char- acteristics and Operational Controls with Accident Rates on Urban Arterials," Proceedings of the 53rd Annual Road School Engineering Bul- letin of Purdue University, Series No. 128, March 27-30, 1967.

31. "Highway Capacity Manual 1965," Highway Research Board, Special Re- port 87, National Research Council, 1965. Definitions are as follows:

Level terrain - any combination of gradients, length of grade, or horizontal or vertical alignment that permits trucks to main- tain speeds that equal or approach the speed of passenger cars.

Rolling terrain - any combination of gradients, length of grade, or horizontal or vertical alignment that causes trucks to reduce their speeds substantially below that of passenger cars on some sections of the highway, but which does not involve sustained crawl speed by trucks for any substantial distance.

Mountainous terrain - any combination of gradients, length of grade, or horizontal or vertical alignment that will cause trucks to operate at crawl speed for considerable distances or at fre- quent intervals.

-55- 32. Roy Jorgensen Associates, Inc.; "Cost and Safety Effectiveness of High- way Design Elements," National Cooperative Highway Research Program

Report 197 , Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1978.

33. Snyder, J. C, "Environmental Determinants of Traffic Accidents: An

Alternate Model," Transportation Research Record No. 486 , 1974.

34. Cribbins, P. D., Arey, J. M., and Donaldson, J. K.; "Effects of Selected Roadway and Operational Characteristics on Accidents on

Multilane Highways," Highway Research Record No. 188 , 1967.

-56- 3. DEVELOPMENT OF A HAZARDOUS MATERIALS CONSEQUENCES ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Developing a methodology to assess the consequences of potential hazar- dous materials accidents requires an understanding and knowledge of many factors. High on the list of factors would be the type and quantity of hazar- dous materials carried as well as the specific characteristics of each mate- rial. Equally important is a definition of what quantitative factors are to be used as consequence descriptors. Additionally, one would want to have an understanding of how the type and amount of hazardous materials interact with the consequence descriptors. All of these issues are discussed below as they relate to hazardous materials route designation.

The Problem of Lack of Exposure Data

One of the most important findings of this study is that there is no com- prehensive source of hazardous materials exposure data at the national level for motor carriers.* This fact was the overriding factor in the development of the consequences methodology. Without "hard" data to suggest what haz- ardous materials are carried what distances and in what parts of the country, it is difficult to focus on the most likely hazardous materials accident conse- quences for a particular route.

Without exposure data, in terms of ton-miles per commodity, the study was left with several alternatives. The worst case commodity for all hazard- ous materials could be used in the analysis but, as this section will indicate, there is no assurance that the worst case commodity is carried uniformly over the entire country. In fact, just the opposite is more likely. Another alternative examined was to seek exposure data at the State level. This search found only one State with exposure data (1).

The last reasonable alternative examined was to analyze the hazardous materials roadway accident data and postulate that accident experience is a surrogate for exposure. Other alternatives, such as conducting surveys and examining ICC data, were outside the scope of this study.

In view of these alternative courses of action, the Materials Transpor- tation Bureau's (MTB's) hazardous materials incidents data base (2) was ex- amined along with selected accidents from the Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety

*This conclusion has been documented by others (4)

-57- (BMCS) data base. The MTB data base contains hazardous materials inci- dents and accidents that have been reported by the motor carriers on DOT Form F 5800.1 (10-70).* As required by the Code of Federal Regulations, carriers use this form to report incidents by commodity, location, and sev- eral other factors. The information is then coded by MTB and analyzed. The accident reports among the total incident reports are coded by MTB as the reports are received from the carriers. The accidents can then be col- lated by hazardous material class . (See Appendix A for the definition of the respective classes of hazardous materials.) Collation of the MTB rec- ords was done nationally for the period July 1973 to December 1978, as summarized in Table 12.

Table 12 indicates that about 90 percent of the accidents involve com- bustible liquids, flammable liquids, and corrosives. Intuitively this seems correct because many of the materials in these classes are commonly used in industry and by consumers (see column 4 of Table 12). This relationship was also supported when the accident experience was compared with the pre- viously mentioned State survey data.

Table 13 compares the MTB accident experience for the Commonwealth of Virginia to a survey of vehicles carrying hazardous materials on Vir- ginia highways (1). For the most frequently carried classes of hazardous materials--combustible liquids, flammable liquids and corrosives- -the accident experience and survey results are very similar. Without the bene- fit of other State surveys, it is difficult to give statistical validity to the hypothesis that the accident data are a valid surrogate for exposure. How- ever, at the same time, and without other means to identify the type, dis- tances, and location of the carriage of hazardous materials, the MTB data appear to be the best available default parameter for identifying what mate- rials are being carried in a particular area.

The MTB requires that any interstate carrier (common, contract, or pri- vate) of hazardous materials in sufficient quantity to warrant placarding file DOT Form 5800.1 in the event of any incident or accident that results in the release of hazardous materials. The BMCS requires all interstate carriers (except private carriers of farm-to-market produce and postal carriers with vehicles having a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less) to re- port accidents that result in death, injury, or $2,000 or more in damages (5). An incident is defined as any occurrence which results in the unintentional re- lease of hazardous material. An accident is an incident which occurs on a roadway and involves vehicular transport of the hazardous material.

-58- i 1

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-60- TABLE 13

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACTIVITY IN VIRGINIA

MTB ACCIDENT VA DEPARTMENT OF RECORDS* TRANSPORTATION SAFETY (7/73 - 12/78) "SURVEY" H.M. CLASS (8/77) Number of Percent of Number of Percent of Accidents Total Vehicles Total

Combustible Liquid 13 24. U 174 24.8%

Flammable Liquid 31 57.4 303 43.3

Flammable Solid 0.0 10 1.4

Oxidizer 0.0 12 1.7

Nonflammable Gas 0.0 42 6.0

Flammable Gas 2 3.7 52 7.4

Poison 1 1.9 13 1.9

Radioactive Materials, 0.0 1 .1

Explosive 1 1.9 15 2.1

Corrosive 5 9.3 79 11.3

TOTAL 54 100Z 701 1002

*Not updated by BMCS data.

SOURCE: (1), (2)

-61- Table 14 indicates that the MTB data base in Appendix B can be strati- fied by State. A more detailed examination of Appendix B indicates that the data can also be stratified by city, but the accident frequency becomes so small that it may be misleading to do so.

Panel Member's Viewpoint

Before the MTB data were available for the project, a panel of profes- sionals (see Section 2) likely to use this research product were asked to define the type of exposure data they would require to make hazardous materials routing decisions. The most significant finding was that there was no consensus among them. For example, some members felt they would require exposure information for all hazardous materials and then plan for the worst case. Others considered it adequate to plan for some type of most probable average . Still others felt that hazardous materials consequences were not really any more of a problem than other existing safety problems and preferred to deal with a single hazardous materials consequences factor. Taken collectively, these viewpoints suggest the need for a hazardous materials consequences assessment methodology flexible enough to accommodate this spectrum of perceived needs. As will be seen later in this section regarding the analysis of the MTB data, this data base, when supplemented with certain additional information, meets all the requirements set forth by the panel.

Population and Property Exposure

On the other hand, the panel did agree that for most practical purposes the primary consequence descriptors should be population and costs asso- ciated with the potential loss of property both on and off the right-of-way. The relative importance of population and property was determined by hav- ing the panel examine the seven classes of hazardous materials indicated in Table 15. Each of the seven classes was evaluated individually based on the potential threat it poses to people as compared with property or the environment. The purpose of this ranking was to determine: (1) if some classes of materials posed special threats to one or more of the three general receptor categories, and (2) the relative importance of the receptor categories. The factors that would suffer the consequences were divided into:

. population density;

. special populations (e.g., schools, hospitals);

. volume of motorists (ADT);

-62- TABLE 14

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ACCIDENT RECORDS IN THREE STATES

(July 1973 - December 1978)

VIRGINIA KANSAS H.M. Class Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent of of of of of of Accidents Total Accidents Total Accidents Total

Combustible Liquid 13 24.1% 15 31.9% 7 20.6%

Flammable Liquid 31 57.4 23 48.9 20 58.8

Flammable Solid 0.0 0.0 0.0

Oxidizer 0.0 1 2.1 1 2.9

Nonflammable Gas 0.0 0.0 1 2.9

Flammable Gas 2 3.7 0.0 1 2.9

Poison 1 1.9 4 8.5 2 5.9

Radioactive Materials 0.0 0.0 0.0

Explosive 1 1.9 0.0 0.0

Corrosive 5 9.3% 4 8.5% 2 5.9%

TOTAL 54 100% 47 100% 34 100%

SOURCE: (2)

-63- TABLE 15

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS CLASSES FOR PANEL RANKING

HAZARDOUS MATERIAL CLASS

EXPLOSIVES

COMPRESSED GASES

FLAMMABLE, COMBUSTIBLE & PYROPHORIC LIQUIDS

POISONOUS MATERIALS & ETIOLOGIC AGENTS

RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS

FLAMMABLE SOLIDS, OXIDIZERS & ORGANIC PEROXIDES

CORROSIVE MATERIALS

-64- ,

. bridges, ramps, and other roadway structures;

. public and private buildings and infrastructure (power lines communication lines); and

. environmentally sensitive areas (reservoirs, waterways).

Panelists ranked the above categories according to which would be most adversely affected by an accidential release of each of the seven classes of hazardous materials.

People were consistently rated over the environment and property as most likely to suffer the worst consequences of any hazardous material release. Table 16 presents the distribution of receptor factors with respect to the se- verity of potential consequences from each class of hazardous materials. Summing the rating points across all classes produced the following factor ranks, in order of importance: population density, special populations, volume of motorists, environment, buildings, and bridges and ramps.

The relatively tight cluster of factors for corrosive and flammable solids supports the belief that control and dispersion are the major haz- ardous materials considerations. Because these two classes are less likely to endanger as large an area as quickly, panel members apparently felt that measures could be taken to safeguard people; property destruc- tion therefore became an important segment of the overall threat. Mate- rials like radioactives and compressed gases, which cannot be readily controlled, posed such major threats to people that property damage for these hazardous materials classes was much less significant by compari- son.

Two major findings emerged from the ranking. First, in considering hazardous materials routes, the most important criterion is people. (There was some disagreement as regards special populations versus motorists. The unresolved question was whether more motorists should be endangered to protect a school or hospital, or whether all persons should be counted equally.) Second, the relatively uniform ranking across all classes (i.e. , factors A, B, and C were always selected over D, E, and F- -except for corrosives) implies that from a routing consequences perspective, all hazar- dous materials may be considered as one class. Other findings included the opinion that motor carrier costs should be included as part of the con- sequences and that great detail in measuring the consequences was probably not practical for this type of analysis.

-65- •

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Analysis of the MTB and BMCS Data Bases

Determining the magnitude of the consequences of a potential hazardous materials accident along a route is a function of many factors. The types of materials likely to be carried were indicated above, and the MTB data base in Appendix B shows where these accidents have taken place. Ideally, it would be desirable to determine the accident consequences as a function of the road- way factors identified in Section 2. However, this type of information is not a required part of the hazardous materials accident reporting procedures Given that it is not possible to relate these accidents directly to consequences, an attempt was made to approach the problem from the perspective of the severity of accidents as a function of class of material, accident type, and varying quantities of materials spilled.

It was possible to determine potential accident impact by class o"f mate- rial in terms of distances likely to be affected by the respective materials. This aspect is fully developed in the Range of Potential Hazardous Materials Impact section. However, the study of accident types and quantities spilled was less successful. If "type" in accident type is defined as spillage, explo- sion, or leakage with or without fire, then the data bases examined offer no help in differentiating between accidents because this information is not collected on MTB accident forms. If accident type is defined as head-on, side-swipe, rear-end accidents, etc. , it is possible to develop this infor- mation, but it is of little value because the quantity spilled relationship is not meaningful. From a consequences perspective, it may be useful to know the number of different accident types because rear-end collisions may spill more (or less) than side-swipe accidents. From this, one could hypothesize that more spillage results in greater consequences. However, as will be seen below, there is no relationship between quantity of spill and accident cost; therefore, knowing accident type from a consequences estimating perspective is not useful.

The study next hypothesized that it may be possible to develop an acci- dent severity measure as a function of quantity of material spilled. The original concept was to develop three severity distances for each class of hazardous materials. The immediate distance would be the area of total destruction nearest the spill. The intermediate distance would extend from the immediate bound to the far bound and would consist of consequences to property defined as "heavily damaged." The far distance would extend from the intermediate bound to a distance of no damage and would have consequences to property classified as "moderate to light" damage. Con- ceptually, this approach could apply to population as well where the im- mediate distance would expose population to death, the intermediate dis- tance to disabling injuries, and the far distance to discomfort, evacua- tion, or minor injuries. Unfortunately, it was not possible to establish this type of relationship, as seen in Figure 7.

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-68- Figure 7 and Appendix C are plots of amount of materials spilled from hazardous materials accidents versus constant dollar costs of the acci- dents. As these plots clearly indicate, there is no apparent relationship between the amount spilled at an accident site and the costs or conse- quences of the accident. For example. Figure 7 shows that a 100 -gallon fuel oil spill can have consequences as small as $100 or as great as $65,000. And a 6,000-gallon fuel oil accident can have consequences of less than $100 or more than $58,000. Similar comparisons can be made for the other materials plotted. The lack of relationship between amount

spilled and consequence in cost , and the inability to relate the amount spilled as a result of a hazardous materials accident to the impact area, gave birth to the concept of measuring property and population exposed rather than quantifying potentials for property destroyed and people killed and injured. This concept will be fully developed below.

ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RELEASES ON HIGHWAYS

As described in Section 2, calculating the risks associated with trans- porting hazardous materials on alternative highway routes requires two in- puts: accident probabilities, and estimates of the potential consequences on nearby populations and environments. The consequences component of the

risk equation is primarily a measure of population along the route . This ^reflects the panel's consensus that the hazardous material releases pose the greatest hazard to human life and then to property. The methodology uses census tract maps and data to estimate the number of persons potentially

affected along a hazardous materials route . An implicit assumption in this approach is that residential populations accurately represent potential human exposure to hazardous material releases. This assumption does not consider the effects of time of day or the movement of commuters from home to work place; however, these limitations were judged less severe than the complexi- ties of an analysis which did account for travel behavior and, if desired, such analyses could be undertaken with this methodology.

Other factors in the consequences component include the location of spec- ial populations (e.g., schools, hospitals, etc.), the value of private property along the roadway, and the value of nearby public property including road- way structures. These factors need not be treated in a quantitative manner, like population, but may be used as qualitative influences to subjectively pri- oritize alternatives that show no clear-cut differences according to their population risk values. (These factors can be treated quantitatively by esti-

mating the value of the various properties and structures . The data re- quirements for this exercise are prohibitive, however, and it is not clear

-69- . .

that the expense is warranted in light of the secondary importance of pro- perty as a consequence factor and the fact that the degree to which the pro- perty would be destroyed is unknown.)

Range of Potential Hazardous Materials Impacts

The potential effects of a hazardous material release depend on the type and amount of the commodity spilled and the environment in which it spills Due to the wide variation in chemical properties of hazardous materials, the different commodities were grouped by placard class and a potential impact area assigned to each hazardous materials placard class on the basis of the recommended evacuation distance in the Hazardous Materials Emergency Response Guide currently being prepared for the USDOT (3). Essentially, the guide recommends minimum safe evacuation distances for commodities likely to be poisonous, corrosive, explosive, etc. Table 17 presents the potential impact area by hazardous materials placard class . The impact area for each class represents the recommended evacuation distance for that com- modity within the class with the largest evacuation distance. Only commodities which had been in vehicular accidents between July 1973 and December 1978 (and were reported to MTB) were considered.

The study approach is based on the worst case commodity for each class. This was a subjective decision which uses the most conservative (or worst case) situation for planning purposes. In some instances, the worst case may not be representative of the commodities most commonly transported within that class. The methodology permits the analyst to substitute his own values for the impact distances or use recommended evacuation distances for com- modities that more accurately reflect hazardous materials movements within his area.

Estimating Population Within the Potential Impact Area

The primary measure for estimating potential consequences is popula- tion. To estimate the potentially exposed population along a hazardous mate- rials route for a specific hazardous materials class, the class impact dis- tances on both sides of the right-of-way are delineated on census maps and that share of the total tract population falling within the impact zone is recorded. This procedure is detailed below.

(1) Compile Census Tract Maps, Identify Routes, and Mark Off Zone of Impacts

Census tract maps show tract boundaries in an SMSA and are available

from the Department of Commerce » Bureau of the Census . As only the boundaries of the census tracts are shown on these maps, it may be neces- sary to draw in portions of the alternative hazardous materials routes (See Figure 8 for example of a tract map.) -70- a» • o o CO o | 1 a. ^Mk _f-u E E SE I IA • 3, (0 (0 IA u> CO • d d d d • d CM O IA o o d d J5 e « i e c o e * 1 • e c 3 * s 1 o r a o 03 XLU I 0> 3 o £ • 3 o c o c 3 «• s O01 . •01 « a "5 5 • o OB , a 01 z e 3 § a o I •o a flu 3 E I o O Zi 1 i o « • • o 3 • • • 0) 35 2 E s S 0» « « m > > S3 S 3 in E AC c « E E s « E § 8 E E E 5 E 0» 1 o • 1 o o o u. E o z ul at 1 o

-71- .

After the alternative routes are identified, the zone of potential impacts is delineated on the tract maps . For each pertinent hazardous materials class there is an associated impact distance, and this value is scaled to the map and marked off on both sides of the route. The resultant impact zone is a corridor described by two parallel lines on each side of the route, as illustrated in Figure 8 , for flammable liquids

(2) Measure Share of Census Tract Which Falls Within Impact Zone

With the exception of tracts lying wholly within the impact zone , it is necessary to measure or estimate the share of a tract that falls within the impact zone boundaries. After estimating the share (or percentage) of the tract within the zone , this percentage is multiplied by the total tract popu- lation to estimate the number of people in that tract living within the poten- tial impact area. This approach assumes that the population within each census tract is evenly distributed- -an assumption that can be refined with local knowledge.

There are two methods to determine what percentage of a tract lies with- in the impact zone boundaries: (1) estimate, and (2) measure. The level of precision desired for the alternatives analysis will indicate which tech- nique is appropriate. Measurements may be made with a planimeter, a small drafting instrument that measures surface area from maps.

The percentage of tract lying within the impact zone is recorded in column 4 of Worksheet 2 (Table 18). Note that each road segment will typically con- tain several tracts, and it will be much easier to associate discrete tracts and road segments if the routes were originally segmented with the tract boundaries in mind. (This issue was discussed in Section 2 in the subsection "Identify Alternatives and Segment Routes.")

(3) Look Up Tract Populations and Determine Share of Tract Population in Impact Zone

Population from each tract is found in the U.S. Census and recorded on Worksheet 2 in column 3. The product of columns 3 and 4 produces the im- pact area population for each tract (column 5). Summing across all tract population shares for a segment gives the total segment population in the potential impact area.

(4) Record Locations of Special Populations (Optional)

This part of the process relies on subjective judgments regarding which populations or special groups should receive added weight in the evaluation

-72- FIGURE 8: CENSUS TRACT MAP AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS IMPACT ZONE

-73- .

Alternative: TABLE 18

Date: WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. Class:

Page of. Impact Radius:.

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL £ PERCENT OF TRACT J_ POPULATION IN POPULATIONS OfO NUMBER POPULATION * -I IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA r^t T7

-74- criteria. This study does not recommend any particular group or institu- tion but merely acknowledges that some communities may wish to include this factor in their analysis.

Two obvious candidates for the special groups category are schools and hospitals. The USGS maps identify the locations of these facilities; persons familiar with the area will, of course, also possess this knowledge. Column 6 on Worksheet 2 has been provided to record these items. The enumeration of special populations is not directly used in the risk calculations but may be useful as an alternatives tie-breaker or to provide a more compre- hensive picture of the impact area.

(5) Inventory Property on a Hazardous Materials Route

In addition to personal liability, hazardous material releases threaten structures on or adjacent to the right-of-way. Structures include public prop- erty such as bridges and overpasses, as well as private property such as homes and commercial developments. The level of sophistication of the prop- erty inventory depends on the amount of resources a community chooses to allocate for this part of the analysis. Property inventory techniques range from simple enumerations from secondary data sources (like the special populations inventory) to quantitative estimates that may be used in property risk calculations. When choosing the appropriate technique, the analyst must trade-off varying levels of precision with the costs of achieving that precision and the importance of the property component in the overall alternatives analysis. The technique chosen to inventory property should reflect the cri- teria and criteria weights that will ultimately be used in the alternatives analysis. Some communities may regard population risk as the overriding measure of importance and treat property risk as merely an ancillary rather than decisive factor. Other communities may feel that property measures should be quantified as much as possible to ensure an objective and uniformly applied alternatives analysis.

Only structures on the roadway (e.g., bridges and overpasses) and the lineal frontage of buildings adjacent to the roadway are measured in the prop- erty inventory. Unlike the population inventory, in which impacts are esti- mated for an area, the study confines estimates of potential property damage to the right-of-way and its immediate environs. This approach was adopted largely because of a lack of historical data for developing impact radii for potential hazardous materials property damage. Also, for materials like combustibles and explosives, much of the property damage is likely to be concentrated on the adjacent buildings, which in turn act as buffers for the ones behind them. Therefore, the conceptualized potential range of impacts for property is in one dimension rather than two. A paucity of data also

-75- . .

precludes differentiating potential impacts between the hazardous materials classes in any more than a cursory fashion; the hazardous materials classes have thus been grouped for the property impact inventory.

The following discussion presents three techniques for measuring the types and amount of property along a hazardous materials route. The tech- niques are presented in ascending order of sophistication (and cost), and the third technique will enable the analyst to develop numerical property values that can be used in property risk calculations

The easiest method for determining the types and amounts of property along the hazardous materials route is to measure the lineal frontage of the various land uses from land-use maps. Worksheet 3 (Table 19) stratifies land-use types into the following five categories:

. low-density residential;

. medium-density residential;

. high-density residential;

. commercial;

. industrial; and

. public

Land-use maps--usually available from city, county, or regional planning agencies- -can be used to obtain this information. Roadway structures may be inventoried with the aid of highly detailed road maps , traffic engineer- ing maps from local or State transportation departments, or aerial photo- graphs .

The second level of roadway inventory would be field data collection to validate and refine the measurements made from the land-use maps. In this exercise, the analyst would travel along each alternative route and measure, by means of odometer readings, the length of each property type developed

*Some communities may have the necessary information to measure the im- pact area along two dimensions. For example, a munitions plant shipping truckloads of explosives may know the radius of property impacts in the event of an explosion. With this knowledge, the methodology described above in population impacts can be adapted to property impacts, and the data collection techniques described below modified accordingly.

-76- . . .

TABLE 19

Alternative:

WORKSHEET 3: PROPERTY INVENTORY H.M. Class: Date:

Impact Radius; Page of

NUMBER OF ROADWAY SEGMENT UNO USE (mile Irwrtini railway) STRUCTURES SPECIAL HI-DENSITT MD-DENSITY LOW-DENSITY PROPERTIES O/O PUBLIC COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL BRIDGE OVERPASS RESIO. RESID. RESID.

-77- and actually fronting the roadway. This procedure provides a more realis- tic measure of what will actually be exposed, compared with the land-use maps which often do not identify individual properties (or their proximity to the road) within the areas designated commercial, industrial, residential, etc . Field observations of the roadway structures may also provide a better picture of the size and nature of bridges, overpasses, cloverleafs, etc.

The third inventory technique builds upon the previous two and is designed to generate estimates of the dollar values for the property located along the route. While in the field, observations are made of specific, representative properties within each land-use type. These properties are then located in the tax assessor's records, and an assessed value per linear foot of front- age is computed. The dollar per running foot value for each land-use type is then multiplied by the corresponding amount of actual land use observed along the route. Similarly, bridge and overpass structure values are ob- tained from the State highway department, and the total value of these struc- tures is computed. Although this technique is admittedly crude, any biases introduced are uniform across all routes, and the relative (rather than the absolute) values should be consistent for the risk computations.

CONSEQUENCE METHODOLOGY APPLIED TO WASHINGTON, D.C., CASE STUDY

For purposes of the Washington, D.C. , case study, the hazardous mate- rials class of flammable liquids was chosen for the impact evaluation. Flam- mable liquids have a potential impact distance of 0.5 miles (0.8 km) in all directions, and this distance is also applicable for combustible liquids, flam- mable solids, oxidizers, flammable compressed gas, and explosives. Flam- mable liquids were also chosen because this class includes gasoline, and the study was concerned with the potential impacts of the most frequently trans- ported commodity. The following discussion presents the steps and findings from applying the impact estimation methodology in Washington. The work- sheets used to compile potential impact data on Alternative 1 are presented as examples. The worksheets used for the other alternatives may be found in Appendix E.

(1) Compile Census Tract Maps, Identify Routes and Mark Off Zone of Impacts

Figure 9 identifies the four alternative routes and their associated im- pact zones delineated on census tract maps . The census tract maps for the

-78- z o N H

0* P

CO H O OS w

z as H <

o

-79- .

Washington, D.C. , SMSA were obtained from the U.S. Department of Com- merce. The parallel lines around each route represent a corridor approx- imately one mile (1.6 km) wide. This corridor is the sum of the potential impact distances in either direction from the right-of-way.

(2) Measure Share of Census Tract Which Falls Within Impact Zone

The share of each census tract falling within the impact zone was deter- mined by measuring the area with a planimeter. Table 20 presents the worksheets for Alternative 1

(3) Look Up Tract Populations and Determine Share of Tract Popula - tion in Impact Zone

The total population for each census tract within the zone was found in the U.S. Census of Housing and Population and recorded in column 3 of

Worksheet 2 . Those tracts not wholly within the zone were then multiplied by the percentage factor in column 4 to determine the number of potentially exposed persons in that tract. After values were derived for each tract, all the tracts in each segment were summed to get a population value for the segment. The total segment population is a function of the length of the segment and the nearby residential density.

The results of the population inventory are presented in Figure 10. The route segments correspond to the segments used in the probability calcula- tions, and multiplying the accident probabilities by the population produces risk values for each segment.

(4) Record Locations of Special Populations (Optional)

Only schools were designated "special populations" for purposes of the case study. Some segments of Alternative 1 have large concentrations of schools, and there are 22 schools along the entire route.

(5) Inventory Property on Hazardous Materials Route

The property along the alternative hazardous materials routes was inven- toried by using land-use maps and then refining these measures with a "drive- by" inspection. The results of these observations for Alternative 1 are pre- sented in Table 21 on Worksheet 3. The property exposure values developed from the land-use maps are followed in each cell by a number in parentheses. The bracketed value is the amount of property that was visible from the road- way, or generally the amount of development that might experience some dam- age resulting from a hazardous material release.

•80- .

TABLE 20

Alternative: WORKSHEET 2: WASHINGTON, D.C. POPULATION INVENTORY Liquid Oate: H.M. Class Flammable

.5 mile (.8km) Page_bfJL Impact Radius:

1 2 3 4 s 6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL PERCENT Of TRACT POPULATION IN POPULATIONS rr OIO NUMBER POPULATION ) ( IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA From 1-395 and 1-495 4014 3734 .47 1755 8 schools 1-A To Tele- 4036 3396 .10 340 graph Rd. 4015 2689 .81 2178

4016 4941 .73 3607

4017 4274 .13 556

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 8436

4018 4127 .28 1156 3 schools 1-B 4019 5559 .79 4392

2007 1749 .22 385

To Rte. 1 2020.02 3115 .88 2741

2017 1292 .11 142

4002 4622 .05 231

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 9047

L-C To: Indian 8014.03 2944 .20 589 1 school Head Hwy. 8014.04 3102 .14 434

XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 1023 TOTAL i

!

8014.05 5139 .49 2518 6 schools

8015 3585 .36 1291

L-D 8017.03 10289 .59 6071

8014.02 3748 .05 187

8017.02 2784 .93 2589

8017.01 5976 .05 299

8017.05 3742 .05 187

8019.02 630 .17 107-

-81- Alternative: L TABLE 20 (Continued)

Date: H.M. Class; Flammable L iquid

Page_lof-2_ Impact Radim: -5 mile (.8km)

6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT OF TRACT . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS NUMBER POPULATION ) # 0(0 C IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA

8,019.01 6,453 .33 2,129

1-D 8,019.03 7,089 .43 3,048 (co it'd) To 8,019.04 4,116 .44 1,811 Pennsylva- lia Avenue 8.011.02 6.418 .07 449

8,021.01 5,155 .27 1,392

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 22,078

8,022.02 9,789 .19 1,860 4 schools

8,022.01 669 .43 288

ES: 'IMATED AREA 12,092 1-E 8,028.02 7,291 .12 875

8,035.02 1,653 .24 397 To: 1-495 and Rte. 50 8,035.03 7,735 .26 2,011

8,036.02 4,487 .31 1,391

8,036.01 2,493 .44 1,097

8,036.08 5,597 .05 28Q

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX 20,291

-82- o H Z

z o H

oDm ft.

-83- TABLE 21

Alternative. WORKSHEET 3: WASHINGTON, D.C. H.M. Citr Flammable Liquid DltK PROPERTY INVENTORY

.5 mile (. 8km) Pag«-Aof_J_ Impact Radius;

NUMBER OF ROAOVtAY SEGMENT UNO USE (mita frsntiiif nadmrl STRUCTURES SPECIAL HI-OENSITT MO-OENSITT UWM1ENSITY PROPERTIES 0/0 PUBLIC COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL 8RI06E OVERPASS # RESIO. RESIO. RESIO.

1-A 2.1 1.7 0.5(0.4) 2.1 (3) 1

Sewage 1-B 0.1 0.8 0.3(0.1) 0.7(0.2) (1) (2) Treatment Plant

1-C 0.8(0.2) 0.2(0.1) (1) (3) Woodrow Wilson Bridge

1-D (0.1) 4.5 6.4(0.3) 1.5(1.0) 0.2(0.1) (2) (1)

1-E 5.0 2.3 2.0 (2) (5)

-

Note: Values in parentheses are observations made during a "drive-by" inspection and represent our best judgement as to the land-use type. The other cell entries were developed from land-use maps.

-84- The number of bridges and overpasses along the alternative routes was also recorded. The Woodrow Wilson Bridge across the Potomac River, for example, is a very large structure serving high volumes of traffic which, if interrupted, would have serious ramifications for the regional transporta- tion system. Alternative 3 includes numerous overpasses and bridges around the Pentagon area and, like the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, it would pose seri- ous problems for commuters if the roadway had to be closed.

(6) Inventory Special Property

Alternative 4 would route a hazardous materials carrier past the most significant special property on all of the potential routes- -the U.S. Capitol. Alternative 2 exposes the Blue Plains sewage treatment plant. This major waste water treatment facility is situated right next to the roadway and a hazardous materials release of highly explosive materials might result in temporary disruption of service. SUMMARY

This section presented the methodology for estimating the potential im- pacts of a hazardous material release on nearby populations and property. Although the impact calculations depend on the class of material transported, several of the classes use the same impact parameters and therefore produce the same consequence values. The methodology uses readily available data and may be performed with varying levels of precision, depending on the level of effort the performing agency wishes to expend.

The population consequence values calculated in the Washington, D.C. , case study demonstrate greater variation than the corresponding probability values. This is due to the range of development activities in the metropolitan area which includes the densely populated Shirley Highway corridor and the relatively undeveloped Prince George's County. Section 4 will explain how to combine the probability and consequence values to produce estimates of risk. Subjective criteria which may be used to modify the objective risk calculations will also be discussed in Section 4.

-85- REFERENCES

1. Dennis Price and J.W. Schmidt; "Virginia Highway Hazardous Materials Flow: 1977 Survey," Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University for the Virginia Department of Transportation Safety, Richmond, Vir- ginia (undated).

2. From a printout (dated October 11, 1979) of the traffic accidents in the MTB data base for the period July 1973 to December 1978.

3. Chemical Propulsion Information Agency, "Hazardous Materials Emer- gency Response Guide," unpublished draft, prepared for the USDOT Research and Special Programs Administration, prepared at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 1979.

4. Price, Dennis L. , "Ten Most Critical Issues in Hazardous Materials Transportation," Report from A3C10 Committee, Transportation Re- search Board, National Research Council, 1979.

5. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations, U.S. Department of Trans- portation, Federal Highway Administration, CFR parts 390-397, com- pilation issued by the American Trucking Association, Washington, D.C., 1979.

-86- 4. DEVELOPMENT OF A HAZARDOUS MATERIALS RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING ALTERNATE ROUTES

OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

The risk assessment methodology developed to evaluate alternate routes for transporting hazardous materials over highways consists of three levels of decision making. At the first level, the specific criteria for determining a particular route's applicability are legalistic and mandatory variables. In general, these consist of existing laws, physical roadway limitations, or other factors that may preclude the route's use. The second level involves calcu- lating numeric risk values, as described in Sections 2 and 3. The third and final level is optional; that is, if the numeric risk difference among the candi- date routes is too small for making the route selection decision, then other qualitative and quantitative criteria are used. These criteria include: calcu- lating the difference in time and travel costs to the motor carrier; comparing different land uses; evaluating the difference in response capability and proxi- mity of fire and rescue; noting the difference in number of highway structures; identifying special populations such as schools , hospitals , and senior citizen homes; and others. Each of the criteria levels is further discussed below.

CRITERIA FOR DESIGNATING HIGHWAY ROUTES FOR TRANSPORTING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

The criteria described here should generally be followed in the order pre- sented. This discussion assumes that an agency, group of agencies, or some organization has been designated or has taken the responsibility to perform an analysis of the routes used to transport hazardous materials. The criteria can be used either to establish routes or examine existing routes, by simply omitting certain criteria steps for the latter analysis. Local distribution routes or through routes for hazardous materials can be examined, but the former are much more involved and may take the form of exception routes. That is, for local distribution it may not be possible or practical to designate routes, but it will make more sense to exclude hazardous materials transport from certain routes or certain areas of the city. The criteria are flexible enough to accommodate all local information available, but at the same time provide default data for jurisdictions that may not have the necessary evalua- tive information. Finally, the criteria are presented in a documentary rather than a users' format so that FHWA will be able to document the research accomplished under this contract. It is anticipated that a companion users' document will be developed for the application of these procedures.

-87- . .

Mandatory Factors

Mandatory Factors, Criterion 1

This criterion level consists of factors pertaining to the physical features of the routes. A determination will have to be made regarding the ability of the route to carry the commodities. Bridge carrying capacity, tunnel and bridge clearance heights, and turning radii are all physical factors that must be investigated. For most major roads these factors will not apply; however, drivers on these routes should be capable of making such determinations, or first-hand observations should be made to ensure that the routes can ac- commodate vehicles carrying hazardous materials

Mandatory Factors, Criterion 2

Legal and jurisdictional searches are performed at this level. That is, laws, agreements, ordinances, and other legal instruments are searched at the local, State, regional, or interregional level to determine if they specifi- cally preclude the use of any routes that may be considered in the analysis. At the local level the usual source of this type of information is the city at- torney, fire department, or police department- -although this may vary from location to location.

Another legal aspect that should not be overlooked is jurisdictional author- ity. That is, it should be determined which agency or group of agencies has the authority to enact legal instruments to designate a route for the transport of hazardous materials. Legal jurisdiction is probably the most important criterion for designating a lead agency. The objectives of the routing analysis will largely determine whose jurisdiction is affected. If the objective is to route through hazardous materials shipments, the lead agency must be re- sponsible for regional transportation activities in order to coordinate route selection through more than one local government's jurisdiction. For local deliveries, the lead agency need not have regional jurisdiction but should be cognizant of the pattern of hazardous materials movements within the area. Regional coordination is an essential part of the route designation process to forestall the designation of routes that are largely untenable. For example, a community would likely encounter stiff opposition from hazardous materials carriers if it enacted ordinances requiring carriers to use highly circuitous routes in order to enter the city limits through only one access route.

As indicated in Section 2, the alternative should be included in the analysis even if there is a legal mandate precluding its use

-88- Variable Factors

Variable factor analysis consists of making numeric risk comparisons among the alternate routes available for hazardous materials transport. Risk, as previously defined, is the product of the probability of a hazardous mate- rials accident and the consequences associated with the accident. This section presents the criteria by which the risk associated with the transport of hazard- ous materials on highways can be quantified.

Variable Factors, Criterion 1

Determining what materials are carried through and used in an area is the first step at this level. This involves first having a knowledge of which hazard- ous materials are to be considered and then deciding which hazardous mate- rials to use in the risk analysis. It is difficult, if not impossible, to determine accurately which hazardous materials travel into and through an area because of the lack of published information in this regard. Rather, the planner must rely on: local knowledge; observation; and police, fire, and other local expe- rience to determine which hazardous materials are appropriate for consider- ation. For example, all areas use chlorine in their water works and gasoline in service stations. However, the quantities used are a function of the size of the study area. An examination of the U.S. Census of Manufacturing for an area would suggest other hazardous materials, as would discussions with community leaders and other professionals.

Alternatively, Appendix B--the MTB data base of roadway accidents from July 1973 to December 1978--can be used as a default indicator of the types of hazardous materials transported in an area. If this default information is used, it is recommended that it be at the State level and that, where possible, a summary be made of the surrounding States as well.

Once the local list of hazardous materials is developed, a decision must be made regarding which material or group of materials will be used in the analysis. Some agencies may wish to plan for the worst case commodity car- ried in their area or the worst case commodity transported nationally. Others may want to perform the analysis for each commodity, derive a weighted aver- age, or develop their own distances based on frequency of carriage. Whatever method is selected, it must produce exposure distance or distances that will permit the population calculations in the next step.

Variable Factors, Criterion 2

This step consists of determining the risk associated with each route for the respective hazardous material carried, in order to choose the route found to have the least risk based on the methodology presented in Sections 2 and ,3.

-89 If the risk is clearly less on one route, then the analysis is complete. How- ever, if the risk values are similar, say within 10 to 25 percent of one another, then the third level of analysis should be undertaken. Local proce- dures may dictate that the risk threshold for using the subjective criteria be even greater.

Subjective Factors Criteria

The degree to which subjective factor analysis is completed is decided by the professional judgment of those accomplishing the alternatives analysis. The primary purpose of this discussion is to lend support to the variable fac- tors analysis. Two analyses that have been identified as subjective criteria are: developing a comparison of the motor carrier's time and travel costs for each route; and evaluating the difference in response capability. The time and costs comparison should be calculated with the cooperation of local carriers, in an effort to capture the latest fuel costs. The analysis of the difference in re- sponse capability should determine the proximity and capability of a hazard- ous materials accident suppression. To make the proximity determination, it is sufficient to identify and discuss with fire personnel the proximity of all fire stations to each of the routes on a map. To make the capability deter- mination, it is necessary to assess each fire station's ability regarding level of training for the type of hazardous material carried in the area under study. This assessment consists of comparing the hazardous material carried in the local area to those listed in Appendix F. For each material found in Appendix F, an assessment must be made regarding the response capability. That is, full-time professional fire fighters are more likely to recognize a placard and provide the proper agent to extinguish a chemical fire; whereas volun- teer or poorly trained personnel are more likely to simply flood the chemical fire with water, which may make certain chemical fires worse. Accordingly, for each locally transported chemical listed in Appendix F that requires a suppression agent other than water, the planner should consult with fire per- sonnel to determine how they would likely respond. Those fire stations that have better training should be noted along each route, as should those with less training. The implication is that better trained fire personnel are more likely to mitigate a spill properly and thereby make the route safer.

Another subjective criterion analysis is comparing the number of highway structures. An enumeration of highway bridges, tunnels, and underpasses should be made for each route. Any particularly sensitive structures with respect to size or location should be noted. The objective here is to suggest that an accident on a route with fewer structures will have less severe conse- quences .

Another analysis in this category is identifying and enumerating special populations. This criterio.i involves making comparisons of the number of

-90- .

special population centers such as schools, hospitals, and senior citizen homes within the exposure zone. The route with the fewest of these facilities would be the most desirable one.

Other criteria can also be developed and used in this analysis, including: ecologically sensitive areas; proximity of utilities (water, power, or com- munications facilities); ambient environmental characteristics; water shed locations; and general meteorological conditions. These and other criteria are usually site-specific and, accordingly, their development is left to the local agency. The following discussion illustrates the application of these criteria in the Washington, D.C., case study.

RISK METHODOLOGY APPLIED TO WASHINGTON, D.C., CASE STUDY

Introduction

The first questions to be answered in evaluating alternative hazardous mate- rials routes are: who should perform the analysis, who should be informed of it and coordinated with, and who should implement the recommendations? The choice of an appropriate performing agency will depend on legal juris- dictions, familiarity with hazardous materials movements, and staff capa- bility. In the Washington, D.C., hypothetical case study, the appropriate agency would be the Washington Council of Governments (WASHCOG). The choice of coordinating and implementing agencies will vary from area to area. Since the objective of the case study is to designate through routes, the re- sponsible agency must have jurisdiction in the three areas involved: Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. The following discussion presents the results of the case study and illustrates the use of the proposed criteria for designating hazardous materials routes.

Mandatory Factors

Within the metropolitan Washington area, several roadways prohibit truck traffic because of clearance height and weight limitations. The George Wash- ington and Baltimore-Washington Parkways are two examples of routes that would be excluded on the basis of mandatory factors

Another mandatory factor affecting route selection is a District of Columbia ordinance which prohibits hazardous cargoes in the Mall Tunnel on 1-95 near the U.S. Capitol. The District has designated a hazardous cargo, route which diverts hazardous materials carriers away from the tunnel and 1-95. However, this route is not precluded from the analysis because the legal reasons may not necessarily involve least risk.

-91- Variable Factors

Probability Calculations

Accident rates are used in this part of the analysis to determine which of the alternative routes has the greatest likelihood of an accident occurring. As discussed in Section 2, interstate highways have better safety records, as compared with highways without controlled access such as urban arterials. Accident rates for the alternative routes in the case study were estimated by using the predictive models described in Section 2. (Use of the interstate predictive model was illustrated earlier for Alternative 1 in Table 11 of Sec- tion 2.) The accident rates are converted into probability statements by multiplying the segment accident rate by its length (or exposure). The prob- ability values for all of the alternatives are presented in Appendix D.

Consequence Calculations

In order to apply the consequence methodology to the case study, it was necessary to select a hazardous materials class to be evaluated. The risk methodology calculates potential hazardous materials impacts on the basis of the range of influence that can be associated with a particular class of mate- rials.

Flammable liquids was selected as the case study hazardous materials class for several reasons. First, gasoline is a commodity within this class, and the case study was designed to illustrate likely conditions. The Virginia survey of trucks revealed a high incidence of flammable liquids carriers within the truck traffic stream (see Table 13 p. 61). Another contributing factor was that the range of impacts for gasoline- -0.5 miles (0.8 km)- -was representative of several hazardous materials classes, including: combustible liquids, flam- mable solids, oxidizers, flammable compressed gas, and explosives (see Table 17 p. 71). Lastly, flammable liquids represent the hazardous materials class most commonly involved in accidents, as recorded by the MTB (see Table 13 p. 61).

The number of persons living within a half-mile (0.8 km) radius along the four alternative routes was measured using census tract maps and data. Property was inventoried along these routes, but estimates of the value of the property were not made. The calculations for these analyses are presented in Appendix E. Each of the route segments has an associated population esti- mate and inventory of property. Alternative 4 has the largest number of per- sons (116,565) living within its zone of impacts, followed by Alternative 3

In general, interstate highways have fewer total accidents than urban arterials per million vehicle-miles. Fatal and injury-producing accident rates may be comparable, however. -92- (114,890), Alternative 2 (81,083), and Alternative 1 (60,875). The number of roadway structures along each of the alternatives shows a similar rela- tionship, as illustrated in Table 22.

TABLE 22 HIGHWAY STRUCTURES ON THE FOUR ALTERNATIVES

Number of Number of Alternative Bridges Overpasses

1 9 12

2 12 15

3 26 37

4 25 37

Population Risk Calculations

After the accident probabilities and population values have been determined for each segment on the alternative routes, the information is transferred to Worksheet 4. Table 23 presents the risk calculations for Alternative 1; risk calculations for the other alternatives are presented in Appendix G.

Column 3 on Worksheet 4 is a constant which represents the probability of a hazardous materials vehicle being involved in an accident given that a vehicu- lar accident occurs. This probability is the ratio of hazardous materials ac- cidents to all accidents during the years 1973 to 1978. There were 93.2 mil- lion accidents involving all vehicles during this period (1), and 2,104 involving hazardous materials carriers- -for a ratio of 2.3 x 10 to one. The product of column 2 (probability of any vehicle accident) times column 3 (incidence of hazardous materials vehicle accidents) is the probability of a hazardous mate- rials vehicle accident occurring.

-93- TABLE 23 Alternative: L Flammable Liquid WORKSHEET 4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS H.M. n«g Oatc

Impact Radius; , S mi 1 p Pag«J.of_L_ 2 3 4 5 6 1 "1

1 SEGMENT / H.M. ACCIDENT J / SEGMENT J - SEGMENT vehicu acq Z P(HJ*. YEH. ACC.) POPULATION nm V INCIDENCE FACTO* ~~ y^ POPULATION — y RISK

6 •* 10 13 1 | 6 1-A 7.575 X 10" 10 1.742 x 10" 8436 1.470 x 10~

6 U 7 1-B 1.949 x 10" if 4.483 x 10~ 9047 4.056 x 10~

6 10 7 1-C 4.842 x 10~ ».» 1.114 x 10" 1023 1.140 x 10~

6 10 6 1-D 9.184 x 10" 11 2.112 x 10~ 22078 4.663 x 10"

6 it 10 6 1-H 11.810 * 10~ 2.721 x 10~ 20291 5.521 x 10*

j* 5 TOTAL 1.217 x 10~

11

t!

11

11

ft

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

If

11

11

11

11

II

-s 13 1 10

-94- The hazardous materials accident probability value for a segment times the associated consequences or population value (column 5) produces the risk value for transporting hazardous materials on that segment. Summing across all segments produces the total population risk for the entire route. The population risk for Alternative 1 when the hazardous materials class is flam- mable liquids is: 1.217 x 10" . For an individual living within the impact zone, the odds of being affected by a hazardous materials release are about one in one hundred thousand.

Risk Comparison for Hazardous Materials Route Alternatives

Worksheet 5 is used to summarize the population risk calculation and pro- perty inventories performed in the case study (see Table 24). Entries within the Land- Use columns may be either the risk values calculated for each land use type or simply summations of the amount of roadway frontage within each category. Similarly, entries within the Structures columns may be the risk value for bridges and overpasses along the route or the total number of these structures. In the Washington case study, the number of highway structures and amount of land-use frontage were recorded; property risk values were not calculated.

The selection of the best route for a specified hazardous materials class will depend on the criteria the community applies in the evaluation process.

Mathematically, this approach is not entirely correct, as the probability of a

vehicle not reaching the next segment is overlooked (i.e. , having an accident). The true form of the equation is:

= P(Accident ) P(Accident ) + [l-P(Accident )] P(Accident ) Total Route Segment 1 Segment 1 Segment 2

+ [l-P(Accident )]P(Accident ) + . . . Segment 2 Segment 3

However, the accident probabilities are so small that 1-P( Accident ) is

Segment i effectively 1 and can be reasonably ignored.

Land-use risks are calculated in the same way as the population risks ex- cept that the segment property value is substituted for the segment popula- tion value on Worksheet 4. Summing across all segments produces the property risk for the entire route. The methodology for this calculation was presented in Section 3.

-95- 1

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-96- ,

The most obvious criterion is selection of that route which poses the lowest risk to population. In the case study, Alternative 1 had the smallest popula- tion risk value, followed in increasing order by Alternatives 2,3, and 4, re- spectively.

Unless the differences between the risk values for the alternatives are fairly large, the methodology recommends that additional, subjective criteria be applied to aid the decision process. Table 25 presents the calculated risk values for the four alternatives and the percentage difference between them. Alternatives 1 and 2 cannot be strongly differentiated on the basis of a 6.4 percent difference; however, Alternatives 3 and 4 are excluded from further consideration because their risk values exceed the lowest potential alternative by 34.0 and 49.6 percent, respectively.

TABLE 25

POPULATION RISKS ON THREE ALTERNATIVE HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ROUTES IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

Percent Difference Alternative Population Risk From Alternative 1

5 1 1.217 x 10~ 5 2 1.311 x 10~ 6.4 5 3 1.651 x 10~ 34.0 5 4 1.843 x 10~ 49.6

Because Alternatives 1 and 2 are relatively similar with respect to popula- tion risk (and property risk values were not calculated for the alternatives) subjective criteria were used to identify the different route characteristics that might make one alternative preferable to the other. The following dis- cussion documents the use of subjective criteria to select the hazardous mate- rials route for flammable liquids that poses the smallest overall threat to the community.

Subjective Factors

There are no clear-cut decision rules for the selection and application of subjective factors. In this third level of criteria (after evaluation of mandatory and variable factors), the community may wish to compare the remaining two alternatives along several dimensions. Worksheet 5 is structured to permit easy comparison of the alternatives. Table 24 presents the characteristics of the four alternatives for the Washington case study.

-97- .

Neither Alternative 1 nor Alternative 2 is clearly preferable on the basis of overall length. The travel times in Alternative 2 will probably be longer than in Alternative 1, as the route includes segments on urban arterials. On the other hand, congested traffic conditions on the Beltway (1-495) frequently cause delays offsetting the potential travel time advantages for hazardous materials carriers routed on Alternative 1

Another subjective criterion used in the case study was the property inven- tory. With fewer roadway structures along the route and only one sewage plant within the potential impact zone, Alternative 1 poses less threat to special properties than Alternative 2.

Using the criterion of special populations. Alternative 1 is again preferable to Alternative 2. The measure of special populations for the case study was schools , and Alternative 1 had fewer schools in its impact zone than Alterna- tive 2.

Conclusion

Alternative 1 is the recommended hazardous materials route for vehicles carrying flammable liquids. Alternative 1 poses the lowest risk to residential population and exposes fewer roadway structures. Alternative 1 also has fewer schools within its impact zone than the next most likely alternative. In general, however, the differences between Alternatives 1 and 2 are not particularly large.

SUMMARY

Section 4 presents possible objective and subjective criteria that may be used in the final route selection. The study suggests that hazardous mate- rials routes be eliminated from consideration if a substantial margin of differ- ence can be observed in the risk values calculated for the alternatives. If a hazardous materials route selection cannot be made on the basis of the first two criteria levels (mandatory and variable) , various subjective criteria must be used to differentiate the alternatives.

In the Washington, D.C. , case study, the alternative that used interstate highways exclusively and bypassed the major population centers proved to be the overall safest route. Of the initial four alternatives, Alternatives 3 and 4 were eliminated because their population risks substantially exceeded those associated with Alternatives 1 and 2. Although the differences in the remain- ing two alternatives are not great, Alternative 1 may be designated as the preferred hazardous materials route on the basis of subjective criteria.

The next section discusses the results of pilot testing the methodology in two additional jurisdictions. -98- REFERENCES

1. National Safety Council, Accident Facts 1973-1978 , Chicago, Illinois.

2. Price, Dennis L. , "Ten Most Critical Issues in Hazardous Materials Transportation," Report from A3C10 Committee, Transportation Re- search Board, National Research Council, 1979.

-99- 5. RESULTS OF PILOT TESTING CRITERIA FOR DESIGNATING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORT ROUTES

PILOT TESTING OVERVIEW

This section describes the results of pilot testing the hazardous materials route selection methodology presented in Sections 1 through 4 . The test ap- plications of the risk methodology were evaluated from two perspectives: if local agencies can understand and use it; and if it offers any advancement in the state-of-the-art in hazardous materials route selection. Results from two pilot tests are presented with respect to these criteria, and other perti- nent information is provided to enable potential users of this report to eval- uate staff and resource requirements for conducting local evaluations.

Pilot tests were conducted in the cities of Nashville, Tennessee, and Seattle, Washington. The objectives of the performing agencies in these two communities differed somewhat, and this difference is reflected in the types of analyses performed and use of resources. In Nashville, a 14 mem- ber committee was assembled for this pilot test. It included representatives from the Department of Civil Defense, the Metropolitan Police and Fire De- partments, the Bellevue Volunteer Fire Department, the City Department of Traffic and Parking, the Metropolitan Planning Commission, the Fleet Transport Company (a common carrier), and Tennessee State University. This multidisciplinary group approached the pilot test with the objective of determining the preferred through routing for hazardous materials trans- port in Nashville. In addition to calculating the risk values, the Nashville committee spent considerable time evaluating subjective criteria factors to refine their analysis and choose the route that best satisfied a variety of criteria.

The performing agency in Seattle, the Puget Sound Council of Governments (PSCOG) had several objectives when they performed the pilot test. One ob- jective was to develop data that would ultimately contribute to their compre- hensive hazardous materials management study that is underway. PSCOG wished to quantify some of the transportation and land use variables that might affect their hazardous materials policy recommendations and regarded the routing exercise as a useful way to become familiar with these variables and perform initial analyses of hazardous materials routing alternatives. Another objective was to provide inputs for the public discussion that is developing over hazardous materials management in the area. PSCOG wished to deter- mine if the routing methodology would be useful for public presentations and if they later became the basis for recommendations to the city councils with- in the Central Puget Sound Region. PSCOG also wished to determine the level of resources necessary to conduct routing analyses on a regional scale to eval- uate the cost-effectiveness of the methodology for possible future applications.

-100- The results of the two pilot tests are presented below. Both perform- ing agencies demonstrated a strong level of interest and commitment to the project. Since the two pilot tests were approached differently, the findings provide a range of experience . The study team considers the two pilot tests representative of the types of uses to which the risk methodology materials would be applied and believes that the issues that arose during the demonstrations would likely be encountered in using the materials else- where.

NASHVILLE PILOT TEST

The City of Nashville pilot tested the risk methodology for about half of the major through routes in Metropolitan Nashville . The lead agendy for the pilot test was the Department of Civil Defense, which was assisted by repre- sentatives from the five public agencies, the common carrier, and the uni- versity listed above. Most members of the committee had not had an oppor- tunity to review the pre-draft final report for this project. A one-hour 35 mm slide briefing of the methodology and pre-draft materials was therefore pro- vided.

Nashville's interest in acting as a test site stemmed from several local objectives, including the following:

. The City had previously faced a hazardous materials routing problem (discussed below) and wanted to have the in-house capability to quantitatively evaluate alternate routes for future high risk materials transport through the City.

. The City tentatively plans to conduct a comprehensive hazar- dous materials safety program and is currently planning to use the risk methodology to investigate the transportation aspects of the issue.

. The City believes in contingency planning and views the metho- dology as a possible way to help identify the preferred existing

and potential truckstops , storage facilities , and roadways for hazardous materials transport.

One of the immediate uses of the pilot test was as a mechanism to organize, evaluate, and sensitize various City departments as regards hazardous mate- rials routing issues. Long-range plans for applying the pilot test results will be determined by City policies regarding hazardous materials management.

-101- LEGEND:

mm ~"~ " Alttf iutiw 1 — • —Atonwtm 2 *—— Atttnutivt 3 ^— Aliniutivt 4

FIGURE 11: NASHVILLE; TENNESSEE, MAJOR ROUTES.

-102- . .

Pilot Test Objectives

The hazardous materials risk methodology was applied to four alterna- tive through routes. The objective of this application was to determine, in general, which route(s) had the least risk. Figure 11 presents a sketch of the major routes in Nashville, the four alternatives studied, and the area's major geographic feature: the Cumberland River.

Pilot Test Results

Alternatives Selection

Because the committee was fairly large, selecting the routes to be analyzed proved a challenging task which provided good insights into the real problems a community faces when applying the risk methodology. Representatives of virtually all potentially affected parties viewed the problem from their own perspectives, and this led to substantial discussion about which routes should initially be selected or eliminated.

The motor carrier viewpoint was that the analysis should be limited to interstate routes because hazardous materials carriers mostly use inter- states, and that determining local routes is beyond the scope of the pilot test.

The police department felt that examining the interstates was reason- able but that, because of the high accident rate along portions of 1-265, the Interloop of the city, 1-65 would be an obvious choice. The police depart- ment also felt the evaluation would not contribute much to their understand- ing of the problem

The Department of Civil Defense supported the police position and added that it had previously been asked to escort a shipment of phosgene gas through the City, arriving from 1-40 West going to 1-40 East, and had chosen a route that consisted of 1-40, 1-265, 1-24/65, 1-40/24, and 1-40. This route had been chosen because of the known high accident rate problem along the 1-65/40 link of the Interloop. Civil Defense also suggested that Briley Parkway might be an appropriate route since it has limited access and was built near interstate standards

The Traffic and Parking and Planning Commission thought population and traffic density would be less on Briley Parkway but also wanted to inves- tigate the 1-265 link of the Interloop. The committee decided to limit the pilot test to those hazardous materials entering the metropolitan area from the North on 1-65 and exiting by either 1-40 or 1-24.

-103- Lastly, FHWA suggested that since this was a pilot test, State Route

45 should be investigated because it was an alternative , although a some- what longer route. The length comparisons of the routes are indicated in Table 26.

TABLE 26 LENGTH COMPARISONS OF ALTERNATE HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ROUTES

Route Miles (Km)

Alternate 1 (1-65 to 1-24) 12.95 (20.72)

Alternate 2 (1-65, 1-265 to 1-24) 14.00 (22.4)

Alternate 3 (Briley Parkway) 13.15 (21.04)

Alternate 4 (State Route 45) 21.30 (34.08)

Level of Analysis Comparison

After selecting the routes to be analyzed, the pilot test committee con- sidered the level of analysis for the test. The work plan was developed through an iterative process, whereby different approaches were proposed, discussed, rejected, or altered until agreement was reached on a final pro- cess. The following discussion briefly traces this process.

The first proposed analysis plan (depicted in Figure 12) was an ambi- tious undertaking which sought to develop risk values for the alternative routes by time-of-day and for special versus commonly transported hazar- dous materials. (Special materials were defined as those hazardous materials classes in Table 17 (p. 71) that have a potential impact radius of greater than 0.5 miles (0.8 km).) The proposed plan was subsequently revised to limit the analysis to special materials, in order to reflect resource availability.

-104- Alternative 1 Alternative 2 ^Peak Alternative 3 Special Materials Alternative 4

Analysis Alternative 1 Plan \ Other Alternative 2 (deferred) Materials \ Qff Alternative 3 Peak Alternative 4

FIGURE 12: ANALYSIS PLAN 1

The product of this analysis would have been very useful to the Depart- ment of Civil Defense if they were again asked to determine a route and pro- vide an escort for a special hazardous materials shipment. The committee, however, chose to reject the proposed plan for two reasons. First, the Traf- fic and Parking Commission pointed out that signing separate hazardous mate- rials routes for peak and off-peak would be difficult at best. Second the police department indicated that enforcement would be a considerable prob- lem. Analysis Plan 1 was thus rejected primarily for practical reasons; it would have hindered effective implementation and enforcement of the analy- ses results.

Analysis Plan 2, was essentially a refinement of Analysis Plan 1 in that based on the reasons just presented, the committee thought the peak and off- peak analysis should be tabled for later refinement.

The next issue was to select the hazardous materials class to be analyzed. Further consideration of special materials routing was eliminated at this point, as the committee lacked information indicating what special materials were carried in the area. After one of the committee members argued that the time being spent on this phase of the project was becoming excessive, the committee chose to analyze the routes based on the impact distance that best represented most hazardous materials. In summary, the committee chose to analyze four alternative through routes for the transportation of hazardous materials with a potential impact radius of 0.5 miles (0.8 km). In effect, the committee accepted the MTB accident date as default information for which materials are transported in the area. The final analysis plan (see Figure 13) was adopted for evaluating shipments of flammable liquids, combustible liquids, and corrosives.

-105- .

Special (deferred) Materials Analysis Alternate 1 Peak and Plan Other Alternate 2 off-peak Materials Alternate 3 comparison Alternate 4 to be done later

FIGURE 13: FINAL ANALYSIS PLAN

A Priori Route Selection

Before initiating the route analyses, the contractor asked all members of the committee to cast a ballot for their intuitively preferred routing alter- native. The purpose of this exercise was to help determine whether the risk methodology advances the state-of-the-art in hazardous materials route desig- nation. Table 27 shows the results, which indicate a preference for Alternative 3. (The a priori judgments are compared to the calculated risk values later in the text.)

TABLE 27 INTUITIVELY PREFERRED ROUTINGS

Alternative Number of Votes

1 2 3 4

Route Segmentation and Data Collection

The next step of the analysis consisted of segmenting the alternatives and collecting data pertinent to the analysis. Accident records, traffic maps, and land-use maps were obtained from the Metropolitan Police Department, Traf- fic and Parking Department, and Metropolitan Planning Commission.

An inspection of the available data suggested that route segmentation could best be done on the basis of average annual daily traffic (ADT). ADT was used to segment the routes because the accident and population data were for- matted in a way that could be easily aggregated into segments corresponding to ADT segments

-106- rf

LEGEND:

Alternative 1 -— • —Alternative 2 ——— Alternative 3 —-—— Alternative 4

FIGURE 14: ROUTE SEGMENTATION AND ADTs(OOO)

-107- Figure 14 illustrates the results of the route segmentation and the ADTs used for the analysis. Only one ADT value was used for Briley Parkway (and, similarly, State Route 45) because the variation in ADTs along these routes did not exceed 10 percent.

Probability Calculations

Accident rates for the probability calculations were developed from the Metropolitan Police Department computerized accident data base. After a printout was obtained of all accidents that occurred during the year on a particular route, the accident frequencies were manually sorted and assigned to the proper route segments. The sorting required a high degree of famili- arity with the roadways, as the accidents were recorded by intersection. Fortunately, the police department representatives were able to determine easily the number of annual accidents on each alternative's segments.

After determining accident frequencies on each segment, the committee calculated the accident rates by using the following formula:

Accidents Million Vehicle- Miles = Accidents/Year 6 x 365 Days/Year x ADT x Segment Length

Accident probabilities were calculated subsequently by multiplying the accident rate on a segment by its length. The probability values are presented in Fig- ure 15.

Consequence Calculations

The Nashville Metropolitan Planning Commission maintains an up-to-date census data base aggregated by planning zones. Although the boundaries of the planning zones are not based on census tracts, the format is similar and the information just as easy to use.

The committee was not satisfied with census population alone, however, as the consequences indicator and chose to introduce another variable. This dis- satisfaction was due to the fact that in many cases motorist population (as measured by ADT) was equal to or greater than the population within a half mile (0.8 km) of either side of the roadway. Accordingly, exposed population in each segment was calculated by adding census population to the product of one-half the ADT times the average auto occupancy (1.35 motorists per vehi- cle). One-half the ADT was used because a great many of the trips were assumed to be work trips, and the motorist could not be in two places simul- taneously (i.e. , both morning and evening peak). The resulting population exposure values are indicated in Figure 16.

-108- rf

LEGEND:

^""""•Allwiudvt 1 • —• —Altenotivt 2 ——— Alttrmtive 3 Ahwimiw 4

Pfoec/r) Probability of Any Vthtefe Acchtait

15: 6 FIGURE ACCIDENT PROBABILITIES ON ROUTE SEGMENTS (xlO* )

-109- rf

LEGEND:

Alternative 1 — • —Alternative 2 ——— Alternative 3 —-—Alternative 4

FIGURE 16: POPULATION EXPOSURE BY SEGMENT

-110- Risk Calculations

To calculate hazardous materials risks on each route, the accident prob- abilities reported in Figure 15 were factored to represent the incidence of hazardous materials accidents in the total accident record. The probability of a hazarous materials accident on each segment was the multiplied by the respective population to produce segment risk values. The segments on each alternative were then added, to produce the total route risk values indicated in Table 28.

TABLE 28 SUMMARY OF RISK VALUES

" 6 Alternative Risk Value (10 )

57.15 70.83 51.40 18.05

This finding was somewhat surprising, as the committee members had pre- viously voted intuitively for the routes shown in Table 26.

Although nobody had cast a ballot for Alternative 4, it had the lowest calculated risk value. After further discussion, it was learned that most members felt that motor carriers would not use it because of bridge limi- tations, at-grade rail-highway crossings, and several sharp turns. Through its knowledge of local conditions, the committee was effectively applying the first mandatory criterion of Section 4. In retrospect, if the briefing had stressed the mandatory criteria more, the committee would have eliminated Alternative 4 earlier because of physical constraints.

The Committee members who had voted for Alternative 1 took the posi- tion that they would still favor Alternative 1 over Alternative 3 most of the time because the analysis failed to consider an important special popula- tion along Alternative 3: Opryland USA, which has an average tourist popu- lation of 20,000 persons 3 months of the year (see Figure 17). If Opryland's population is included in the analysis, then the risk value for Alternative 3 increases to 72 x 10 , which makes Alternative 1 a clearly less risky route.

To provide additional support for this decision, the fire and ambulance locations were plotted along the Alternatives as indicated in Figure 17. This subjective criterion suggests that Alternative 4 would have much less sup- port in the immediate area in the event of a hazardous materials release.

-Ill- LEGEND:

Alternitive 1 — • —Atomitta 2 •——— Alternative 3 AIHtmtweA

FIGURE 17: LOCATION OF FIRE (F) AND AMBULANCE (A) STATIONS; AND OPRYLAND, USA

-112- Nashville Committee Reaction to the Methodology

The Nashville participants performed the analysis well and quickly grasped the methodology. The reaction to the methodology was highly favor- able, and there was considerable discussion about extending, refining and pos- sibly computerizing it for use at the citywide level. The participants also demonstrated sensitivity to the political implications of their findings by noting that if Alternative 3 were a designated hazardous materials route, then sev- eral truck stops might suffer from a loss of business . However, it was gen- erally felt that this type of problem could be resolved.

From FHWA's evaluation perspective, few problems were encountered. Assistance was limited to helping some participants understand the metho- dology; this was accomplished with a training/implementation document or a seminar. Participants were not always aware of each other's responsi- bilities in the hazardous materials management field, and the formation of the committee greatly helped an exchange of information within the Nashville metropolitan area. Within their respective fields of specialization, however, the participants clearly had an excellent knowledge of the roadway, accidents, population, and hazardous materials carrier operations in the region.

Few questions were raised during the pilot test. Inquiries were made about FHWA's intent regarding this report and the project and about scien- tific notation (10~ ), and questions were asked pertaining to procedures in Sections 1 through 4 of the pre-draft report which had not yet been read. In general, the participants felt comfortable with and pleased by the appli- cations of the methodology to their area.

Level-of-Effort

The Nashville pilot test required approximately 70 person-hours to eval- uate about 50 .miles (8 km) of roadway. Three and one-half person-hours were expended in the initial meetings where the routing issues were identified and the alternatives to be evaluated selected.

Data collection required 6 person-hours. This relatively rapid effort was possible because the committee consisted of representatives from various agencies who were able to identify quickly and gather the necessary informa- tion. Route segmentation was accomplished in 4 person-hours, and the acci- dent probability calculations required approximately 6 person-hours. Develop- ing consequence values for resident populations entailed 8 person-hours of ef- fort, and adding the ADT factor required 1 additional person-hour. Calculat- ing and discussing the risk values involved 10 person-hours. Much like the early part of the analysis, convening the committee to discuss the findings involved substantial investments of time.

-113- Educational background of the participants included high school, special training, college, and several advanced degrees. The participants were well- versed in their respective fields and interacted at a high professional level. The contractor's presence at the site was not essential. The committee de- monstrated a good understanding of the methodology and performed the neces- sary calculations with ease. The contractor's principal contribution was to facilitate the process, which suggests that the person-hours cited above may be conservative . The same results would have undoubtedly occurred with- out the contractor, but it might have taken somewhat longer. The contrac- tor's level of effort was an additional 10 hours.

Anticipated Use of the Risk Analysis

At least two of the agencies indicated an interest in pursuing the metho- dology as a means to improve their services to the city. The agencies anti- cipate using the methodology in slightly different ways: one for project review, and the other for hazardous materials routing. The two agencies anticipate that results of their analyses will be considered at the highest appropriate local government level (e.g., Police for enforcement, Traffic and Parking for roadways, etc.). This expression of interest was interpreted as a strong positive endorsement of the methodology and a measure of the participants' confidence in the findings.

PUGET SOUND PILOT TEST

The Puget Sound Council of Governments (PSCOG) was the performing agency that applied the risk methodology to several highways in the Seattle metropolitan area. PSCOG is currently conducting a comprehensive multi- modal study of hazardous materials transportation in the four-county Cen- tral Puget Sound Region with funding provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation. Although PSCOG is responsible for studying the entire region, the pilot test application was limited to the Seattle area because of resource constraints.

The Comprehensive PSCOG Hazardous Materials Study has four essen- tial objectives:

. to identify the types and amounts of hazardous cargo trans- ported through the region by ship, rail, motor carrier, air, and pipeline;

. to evaluate the roles, responsibilities, and capabilities of agencies with hazardous materials prevention or response mandates;

-114- . to survey federal and state programs elsewhere to determine their applicability to the Central Puget Sound Region; and

. to develop options for a regional prevention and response plan based on the preceding analyses and incorportating public re-

sponsibilities, industry perspectives , legal considerations,

resources requirements , etc .

The results of the comprehensive study will be presented to public and pri- vate sector officials in the region, in order to assess the need for hazard- ous materials transportation management and evaluate possible prevention and response options.

Pilot Test Objectives

The risk methodology was applied to six alternative routes. The objec- tive of these applications was to calculate risk values for alternative through routes in the Seattle area and alternative local routings for traffic approach- ing a major industrial area from both north and south. The Seattle pilot test basically demonstrated that a relatively small amount of resources can be used effectively to determine the relative risks of routes through and into a city.

The principal focus of the pilot test from the contractor's perspective was to see if the performing agency could readily understand and use the materials presented in Sections 2, 3 and 4. PSCOG's motive for performing the analy- sis was to determine the suitability of the risk analysis technique for use in their comprehensive hazardous materials management study. PSCOG also wanted to become familiar with the types and availability of data that are appropriate for analyzing public safety, and to develop a series of initial risk calculations that can be refined at a later date when resources permit. At the time of the pilot test, PSCOG was only in its second month of the 15 -month hazardous materials study and was in the process of assembling a steering committee for the project. It was unclear at that time whether or not rout- ing was going to be included in the project scope, but PSCOG felt the ancil- lary benefits of becoming more familiar with this aspect of hazardous mate- rials issues warranted its involvement.

Pilot Test Results

Alternative Selection

As can be seen in Figure 18, the City of Seattle is bounded on the east and west by water, and a major industrial area is located south of the cen- tral business district on Elliot Bay. The 6 alternative routings identified in

-115- Puget Sound

Renton

FIGURE 18: SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA

-116- LEGEND:

-t Alternative 1 Alternative 2f O — Alternative3 x Alternative 4 Alternative 5 • — Alternative 6

HAZARDOUS MATERIALS ROUTINGS FIGURE 19: ALTERNATIVE

-117- Figure 19 were selected because they constitute the major roadways in the area and provide access to one of the largest industrial complexes in the region. The routings are principally on interstates or limited access state highways. Two of the local routings (Alternatives 3 and 4) include urban arterials on some segments but, in general, have good design characteris- tics. PSCOG felt that all of the alternatives were viable routing options and were commonly used by carriers.

The alternative through routes, 1-5 and 1-405, provide a good example of the tradeoffs associated with transporting hazardous materials through versus around a city. The route that bypasses the City ^1-405) is longer (30.3 miles (48.5 km) versus 28.2 miles (45.1 km) on 1-5) but travels through less densely populated areas. The local routes, on the other hand, travel along very similar corridors but are principally differentiated by their roadway characteristics.

A Priori Route Selection

Before calculation of the risk values, the two members of PSCOG involved in the pilot test were asked to select the roadways that would be their pre- ferred hazardous materials routes based on their knowledge of the area. The two respondents had conflicting views based on their own sense of which areas had higher population densities, better roadway characteristics, greater peak and off-peak travel, etc. This lack of agreement indicated early on that the results were not necessarily a foregone conclusion and that the subjective criteria individuals are likely to apply to the process will vary significantly.

Probability Calculations

In order to calculate the probabilities (and consequences) for each route, it was necessary to segment the alternatives into discrete sections. The routes were segmented on the basis of accident rates and the boundaries of the PSCOG planning districts (which were either Census tract boundaries or combinations of Census tracts).

State and City accident rate data were available for all of the routes eval- uated. The performing agency felt that these observed values would be more accurate than values predicted by the accident rate models, as well as more cost-effective. On some segments of roadways within the City, it was neces- sary to calculate the accident rates using observed accident frequencies and average annual daily traffic counts (ADT). The following formula was used to calculate the accident rates on these segments:

Accident = Number of Accidents per Year 6 x 10 Million Vehicle- Miles 365 days /year x ADT x Segment Length

-118- PUGET SOUND

LEGEND

I Alttmitivt 1 MHI Alumativ* 2 P(icdw) - Probability of Any Vohiclo Accident

FIGURE 20: ACCIDENT PROBABILITIES ON ALTERNATIVE THROUGH 4 ROUTE SEGMENTS (xlO" )

-119- 1-5 & M05 P(acc/v) 14.36 4

Puget Sound

P(acc/v) «4.370

—"O"*" Alternative 3 "•' Alternative 6 P(aee/v) « Probability of Any Vehicle Accident

FIGURE 21: ACCIDENT PROBABILITIES ON ALTERNATIVE LOCAL ROUTES (x 10 -«)

-120- Puget Sound

P(acc/v) - 4.370

LEGEND:

— X — Alternative 4 __.••_ Alternative 5

P(HM ACC) - Probability of a Hazardous Material! Accident

FIGURE 12: ACCIDENT PROBABILITIES ON ALTERNATIVE 6 LOCAL ROUTE SEGMENTS (xlO )

-121- .

The probability values for all vehicle accidents on the through and local routes are presented in Figures 20, 21, and 22.

Consequence Calculations

PSCOG maintains an EMPIRIC forecasting model and uses it to update its employment and population estimates for the region. The risk analysis was conducted with 1980 estimates for these parameters, to capture the most re- cent distribution of land use. In the course of developing the model, PSCOG created its own districts which were essentially based on Census boundaries. This did not create any problems for the pilot test since the information is the same as that provided in the Census, but it is formatted on a different geogra- phic basis. The performing agency chose to refine the consequences-estimat- ing component of the risk methodology by introducing employment as a vari- able. The objective was to portray more accurately the time-of-day locations of persons along the alternative hazardous materials routes. The pilot test was first conducted using population along the route and later with a combined population and employment value as the consequence variable to test the sen- sitivity of the risk analysis findings

The resident populations identified in Figures 23, 24, and 25 consist of persons living within a half-mile on either side of the roadway. PSCOG chose the half-mile impact zone because it wanted to estimate the risk as- sociated with transporting flammable liquids. Gasoline and petroleum pro- ducts are commonly carried in the Puget Sound Region because of refining operations in the area and distribution activities at the port.

Figures 23, 24, and 25 also show the combined values for residential population and employment within the impact zones. The employment vari- able measures the number of persons working within that zone. Although this has the effect of counting employed persons twice (once at their home and again at their job) , PSCOG felt it was important to portray more accurately the daytime distribution of persons . Ideally, it would be desirable to factor down the resident populations to represent the migration of persons from home to work place, but PSCOG did not feel the added refinements justified the effort at that time. Another confounding influence was persons who live and work in the same zone. Recognizing these biases, PSCOG chose to in- clude employment in order to see how sensitive the risk calculations would be to this addition.

Risk Calculations

The relative risk differential for the through routes (Alternatives 1 and 2) remained about 2:1, with and without the addition of employment to resident population (see Tables 29 and 30). Similarly, Alternatives 3 and 6 preserved

-122- LEGEND:

' f- Alternative 1 j-|— ifia Alternative 2 "Resid«ntial Population POPR Population POPR+E"Re«idential and Employment ON ALTERNATIVE THROUGH ROUTES FIGURE 23: POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES

-123- POP R=491 POPR4E =3683

oaaio Alternatives «•«»• Alternatives

POP - Residential R Population P0P R&E ~ Residential Population and Employment

nGURE 24 : POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES ON ALTERNATIVE LOCAL ROUTES ALTERNATIVES 3 AND 6

-124- Puget Sound

POPr - 342

POP R+ ^-3683

Spokane St

POPr - 2915 POPr+E - 20018

LEGEND:

_y — Alternative 4 mi Alternative 5 POPr - Residential Population Employment POPr+e - Residential Population + CONSEQUENCES ON ALTERNATIVE FIGURE 25: POTENTIAL LOCAL ROUTES ALTERNATIVES 4 AND 5

-125- the same relative risk relationships when employment was added. Alter- natives 4 and 5, however, reversed their relative risks when employment was introduced. This is because of the heavily industrialized nature of the area through which Alternative 4 passes, and the roughly fivefold increase in risk when employment is added compared with the less than threefold increase on Alternative 5 under similar circumstances. Tables 28 and 29 summarize the risk values for population only and for population plus em- ployment, respectively.

r-'f The through routing differentials are great enough to make 1-405 (Alter- native 1) the preferred route on the basis of the risk calculations alone. The local routings were not definitive, however, and the calculated risk values for Alternatives 3 and 6 were extremely close. Alternatives 4 and 5 exhibited a major risk difference when employment was considered but showed the op- posite relationship when the calculations were based on population alone.

PSCOG Reaction to the Methodology

The application of the risk methodology was well received by PSCOG. The calculated risk values generally confirmed the prior routing judgments of persons knowledgeable about the area, although additional subjective cri- teria made one local routing appear less attractive than the relative risk values implied; a difficult turn and extremely busy intersection on Alterna- tive 5 led one of the participants to conclude that this route was less pre- ferable to Alternative 4, even though the population-plus -employment risk value was higher.

Lack of pilot test time prevented the performing agency from applying additional subjective criteria to the routing alternatives. The participants identified other subjective criteria which may be applied at a later date, including emergency response capability and time-of-day traffic patterns.

As discussed above, PSCOG changed the consequence methodology to in- clude employment land-use patterns as well as residential activities. The risk methodology proved flexible enough to incorporate this change without major modifications in the structure of the analysis or the underlying assump- tions. Other modifications discussed included stratifying the accident rates by daytime and nighttime, and calculating the risk values on the hypothesized daytime populations versus the nighttime populations. The methodology is well-suited to incorporate this change too, but the resource requirements may preclude the use of this modified technique on all but a few routes.

-126- TABLE 29 ALTERNATIVES COMPARISON FOR RESIDENTIAL POPULATION

Alternative Length (miles) 10" 6 Risk (x ) Total Exposed

1 30.3 6.06 54,873 vs. 2 28.2 29.71 119,924

3 20.5 24.77 98,144 vs. 6 20.7 25.52 105.,959

4 8.7 1.67 9,207 vs. 5 7.8 2.20 13,680

TABLE 30 ALTERNATIVES COMPARISON FOR RESIDENTIAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT

Alternative Length (miles) 10" 6 Risk (x ) Total Exposed

1 30.3 11.70 96,068 vs. 2 28.2 68.68 276,844

3 20.5 50.57 193,695 vs. 6 20.7 53.67 244,025

4 8.7 10.01 37,183 vs. 5 7.8 6.07 36,430

-127- .

Level-of-Effort

The pilot test required about 42 person-hours to evaluate 120 miles of roadway (of which 30 miles overlapped). The major time requirement was for data collection (requiring 16 person-hours), followed by the consequence mea- surements (10 person-hours) and segmenting the routes (6 person-hours). The other activities required the following levels of effort:

. stating objectives and identifying alternatives (3 person-hours);

. developing work plan (2 person-hours);

. calculating accident probabilities ( 3 person-hours); and

. calculating risk and discussing findings (2 person-hours).

Because of resource constraints, the participants chose to defer a de- tailed analysis of the results until a future date. The risk analysis only briefly used subjective criteria, and property was not used as a consequence measure. Additional time requirements to incorporate these activities into the evaluation would probably require 20 to 40 person-hours.

The contractor's presence at the test site was helpful but not essential. Assistance was limited largely to an initial structuring of the problem and some fairly minor suggestions on how to calculate accident probabilities and develop consequence values. The staff member performing the bulk of the analysis felt that there was little or no need for outside help and that the methodology was clearly stated and readily understandable . This individual received his Master's Degree in Political Science and had previous experi- ence with the concept of risk analysis . Although he had no previous know- ledge of traffic engineering, he clearly understood those parts of the metho- dology relative to accident rates and their calculations. In addition, the analyst had acquired a helpful publication from the Washington State Highway Department which provided formulas for calculating accident rates.

Anticipated Use of Risk Analysis

It was not clear at the conclusion of the pilot test how PSCOG would in- tegrate the findings from the risk analysis into its overall hazardous mate- rials study mandate. The agency did feel that the risk methodology provided good insights into issues to be considered when routing hazardous materials and that it was well suited to public presentation because it was easy to under- stand. PSCOG does not have the authority to implement any policies but can only make recommendations to the appropriate City, County, and State of- ficials. The agency indicated a desire to conduct additional risk analyses throughout the four-county region and was sensitive to the political, social, and economic implications of any routing recommendations

-128- SUMMARY

This section presented the results of pilot testing the hazardous materials

route selection methodology in Nashville and Seattle . The methodology was well received, and its products were acceptable to the performing agencies.

Based on the pilot test results, the study concludes that the risk metho- dology presented in Sections 1 through 4 has merit and appears to fill an information need that many cities may nave. From the contractor's experi- ences in Nashville and Seattle, the study also concludes that a user-oriented guide is warranted to provide a simplified presentation of the methodology. An abbreviated user's guide would likely enjoy better distribution than the final report and would be of service to many communities concerned with hazardous materials transportation.

-129- APPENDIX A

DEFINITIONS OF CLASSES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS This appendix has been abstracted from a U.S. DOT publication entitled

"Hazardous Materials Definitions." It was published in January 1979 and is available from the Materials Transportation Bureau.

EXPLOSIVES

An Explosive - Any chemical compound, mixture, or device, the primary or common purpose of which is to function by explosion, i.e., with substantially instantaneous release of gas and heat, unless such compound, mixture, or device is otherwise specifi- cally classified in Parts 170-189. (Sec. 173.50)*

CLASS A Detonating or otherwise of maximum hazard. The nine types of EXPLOSIVE Class A explosives are defined in Sec. 173.53.

CLASS B In general, function by rapid combustion rather than detonation EXPLOSIVE and include some explosive devices such as special fireworks,

flash powders, etc. Flammable hazard . (Sec. 173.88)

CLASS C Certain types of manufactured articles containing Class A or Class EXPLOSIVE B explosives, or both, as components but in restricted quantities,

and certain types of fireworks. Minimum hazard . (Sec. 173.100)

BLASTING A material designed for blasting which has been tested in accord- AGENTS ance with Sec. 173.114a(b) and found to be so Insensitive that there is very little probability of accidental initiation to explosion or of transition from deflagration to detonation. (Sec. 173.114a(a))

FLAMMABLE, COMBUSTIBLE, AND PYROPHORIC LIQUIDS

FLAMMABLE Any liquid having a flash point below 100 F. as determined by LIQUID tests listed in Sec. 173.115(d). Exceptions are listed in Sec. 173. 115 (a).

COMBUSTIBLE Any liquid having a flash point above 100 F. and below 200 F. as LIQUID determined by tests listed in Sec. 173.115(d). Exceptions to this are found in Sec. 173.115(b).

Pyrophoric Liquid- Any liquid that ignites spontaneously in dry or moist air at or below 130 F. (Sec. 173.115(c))

*Refers to a section in the Code of Federal Regulations.

-130- COMPRESSED GASES

Compressed Gas - Any material or mixture having in the container

a pressure exeeding 40 psia at 70 F. , or a pressure exceeding

104 psia at 130°F. J or any liquid flammable material having a vapor pressure exceeding 40 psia at 100°F. (Sec. 173.300(a))

FLAMMABLE Any compressed gas meeting the requirements for lower flammability GAS limit, flammability limit range, flame projection, or flame prop- agation criteria as specified in Sec. 173.300(b).

NONFLAMMABLE Any compressed gas other than a flammable compressed gas. GAS

FLAMMABLE SOLIDS, OXIDIZERS AND ORGANIC PEROXIDES

FLAMMABLE Any solid material, other than an explosive, which is liable to SOLID cause fires through friction, retained heat from manufacturing or processing, or which can be ignited readily and when ignited burns so vigorously and persistently as to create a serious trans- portation hazard, (sec. 173.150)

OXIDIZER A substance such as chlorate, permanganate, inorganic peroxide, or a nitrate, that yields oxygen readily to stimulate the com-' bustion of organic matter. (See Sec. 173.151)

ORGANIC An organic compound containing the bivalent -0-0 structure and PEROXIDE which may be considered a derivative of hydrogen peroxide where one or more of the hydrogen atoms have been replaced by organic radicals must be classed as an organic peroxide unless— (See Sec. 173.151(a) for details)

CORROSIVE MATERIALS

CORROSIVE Any liquid or solid that causes visible destruction of human skin MATERIAL tissue or a liquid that has a severe corrosion rate on steel. (See Sec. 173.240(a) and (b) for details)

-131- POISONOUS MATERIALS, ETIOLOGIC AGENTS, AND RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS

POISON A Extremely Dangerous Poisons - Poisonous gases or liquids of such nature that a very small amount of the gas, or vapor of the

liquid, mixed with air is dangerous to life . (Sec. 173.326)

POISON B Less Dangerous Poisons - Substances, liquids, or solids (including

pastes and semi-solids) , other than Class A or irritating materials, which are known to be so toxic to man as to afford a hazard to health during transportation; or which, in the absence of adequate

data on human toxicity, are presumed to be toxic to man . (Sec. 173.343)

IRRITATING A liquid or solid substance which upon contact with fire or when MATERIAL exposed to air gives off dangerous or intensely irritating fumes,

but not including any poisonous material, Class A . (Sec. 173.381)

ETIOLOGIC An "etiologic agent" means a viable micro-organism, or its toxin AGENT which causes or may cause human disease. (Sec. 173.386) (Refer to the Department of Health, Education and Welfare Regulations, Title 42, CFR, Sec. 72.25(c) for details.)

RADIOACTIVE Any material, or combination of materials, that spontaneously MATERIAL emits ionizing radiation, and having a specific activity greater

than 0.002 microcuries per gram. (Sec. 173.389) NOTE ; See Sec. 173.389(a) through (1) for details.

ORM-A, B or C (Other Regulated Materials) - Any material that does not meet the definition of a hazardous material, other than a Combustible liquid in packagings having a capacity of 110 gallons or less, and is specified in Sec. 172.101 as an ORM material or that possesses one or more of the characteristics described in ORM-A through D below, (sec. 173.500)

NOTE : An ORM with a flash point of 100 F. to 200 F., when trans- ported with more than 110 gallons in one container shall be

classed as a combustible liquid .

-132- .

OTHER REGULATED MATERIALS

ORM-A A material which has an anesthetic, irritating, noxious, toxic, or other similar property and which can cause extreme annoyance or discomfort to passengers and crew in the event of leakage during transportation. (Sec. 173.500(a)(1))

ORM-B A material (including a solid when wet with water) capable of causing significant damage to a transport vehicle or vessel from leakage during transportation. Materials meeting one or both of the following criteria are ORM-B materials: (i) A liquid substance that has a corrosion rate exceeding 0.250 inch per year (IPY) on aluminum (nonclad 7075-T6) at a test temperature of 130 F. An acceptable test is described in NACE Standard TM-01-69, and (ii) Specifically designated by name in Sec. 172.101. (Sec. 173.500 (a)(2))

ORM-C A material which has other inherent characteristics not described as an ORM-A or ORM-B but which make it unsuitable for shipment, unless properly identified and prepared for transportation. Each ORM-C material is specifically named in Sec. 172.101. (Sec. 173.500(a)(4))

A material such as a consumer commodity which, though otherwise subject to the regulations of this subchapter, presents a limited hazard during transportation due to its form, quantity, and packaging. They must be materials for which exceptions are provided in Sec. 172.101. A shipping description applicable to each ORM-D material or category of ORM-D materials is found in Sec. 172.101. (Sec. 173.500(a)(4))

-133- APPENDIX B

MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION BOARD HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INCIDENTS REPORTS BETWEEN JULY 1973 AND DECEMBER 1978 (PLUS SELECTED BUREAU OF MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY REPORTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE MTB DATA)

Note : Reports identified with a dot in the left-hand margin report the same accident more than once, and the duplicates were eliminated when the hazardous materials accident frequency distributions were developed for Table 12 on page 59.

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02/04/76 New Castle DA Fuel Oil Comb L 3 3 22,000 UNK 01/23/76 Cannon Falls NM Fuel Oil Comb L 7,000 UNK 11/22/73 New Cumberland PA Fuel Oil Comb L 2 320,000 UNK 02/22/74 Camanche TX Fuel Oil Comb L 1 27,000 UNK 03/28/74 Beckly WV Butyl Chloride F.L. 14,000 UNK 04/08/75 Rodeo CA Fl. Liq. N.O.S. F.L. 7,000 55 Gal 04/10/75 Sun Valley CA Fl. Liq. N.O.S. F.L. 4 120,000 UNK 05/16/76 Massie Twnshp. OH Fl. Liq. N.O.S. F.L. 30,000 UNK 12/05/73 Eastland TX Gasoline F.L. 1 1 15,000 UNK 09/08/73 LaGrand OR Gasoline F.L. 50,000 UNK 01/17/76 Sacramento CA Gasoline F.L. Mr1 5 11,700 UNK 10/18/73 Kansas City MO Gasoline F.L. 2 1,000,000 UNK 10/07/74 No. Platte NB Gasoline F.L. 1 250,000 UNK 01/17/74 Plainfield IL Gasoline F.L. 1 1 55,000 UNK 12/13/75 E. Hartford CT Gasoline F.L. 1 25,000 UNK 01/26/76 Enfield NH Gasoline F.L. 10,000 UNK 07/06/76 Kansas City KS Gasoline F.L. 2 75,000 UNK 01/08/74 Los Angeles CA Gasoline F.L. 1 295,000 UNK 07/27/74 Epsour NH Gasoline F.L. 1 2 3,000 UNK 01/18/76 Windham NH Gasoline F.L. 1 4 25,000 UNK 08/23/76 Manila VT Gasoline F.L. 1 40,000 UNK 01/20/76 Falmouth ME Gasoline F.L. 1 24,000 UNK 06/12/78 Des Moines 10 Paint F.L. 1 1 50,000 UNK 07/24/76 Green River VT Ammonium Oxidizer 2 50,000 UNK Nitrate 04/27/76 Brisco AK Nydrogen Oxidizer 1 34,400 UNK Peroxide 01/08/76 Gallop NM Butane F.G. 4 3 50,000 UNK 08/06/76 Kansas City KS Fl. Comp. Gas F.G. 30,000 UNK 05/26/76 Portland MI L.P.G. F.G. 1 8,000 UNK 04/17/75 Becket MA L.P.G. F.G. 1 7,000 UNK 02/13/74 Gainesville GA L.P.G. F.G. 1 9,200 UNK 08/27/74 Kansas City MO L.P.G. F.G. 10,000 UNK 05/22/74 Golden CO L.P.G. F.G. 1 14,000 UNK 09/28/73 TX Poisonous Sol. Poison B 1 63,200 UNK N.O.S. 02/01/76 El Reno OK High Explosives Expl. A 2 76,000 UNK 08/08/74 Chicago IL Caustic Soda COR 2 10 15,000 UNK 11/07/75 LaFayette IN Sulfur Trioxide COR 1 1 52,000 UNK

-178- APPENDIX C

PLOTS OF THE QUANTITY SPILLED VS. CONSTANT DOLLAR DAMAGES (1978) FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INVOLVED IN 10 OR MORE HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS BETWEEN JULY 1973 AND DECEMBER 1978

Note : The data for these plots were derived from the MTB computer printout in Appendix B. A complete listing of the quantity spilled and constant dollar damages for every hazardous materials accident reported be- tween July 1973 and December 1978 is in the possession of the Federal Highway Administration.

-179- Aiconci NO.S Anhydrous Ammonia

60,000

70,000 -

50,000 -

40,000-

30,000

20,000

10,000

1,000 20,900 — e.ooo 4,000

2,000 El _L 1,000 2.000 3,000rifar 4.000 5,000 7.500 10.000 10,000- QUANTITY PELEASED (GALLONS) 8,000 - M00- 4,000 - 2,000 -

1,000 2,000 3.000 4.000 5,000 7,500 10,000

QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

Asphalt Cut Back

50,000 -

Acetone

40,000 40,000-

30,000 30,000

cr CO 20,000 5 i—i o 20,000 Q B 1- Ui i < w CO vt

10,000 - 10,000 - 8,000 - - 6,000 - 8,000 r 4,000 - 6,000 4,000 - 2,000 - 2,000 - 1,000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5,000 7,500 10,000 OJ*- 1.000 2,000 3,000 4.000 5,000 7,500 QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

-180- Comoustiple Liquid N.O.S Compound Paint Remover

25,000

40,000- uj 20,000

tr oo < t^ 30,000- 15,000 -J cn -J fH

20.0001- 10,000

10.000 • 5,000 a.ooo - 4,000 8,000 3,000 4,000 - 2,000

2,00i 1,000 13 (6)j . _|_ -( — _i_ 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 7,500 10,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

QUANTITY RELEASED (SALLONS) QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

Compound Cleaning Liquid C

30,000

Corrosive Liquid N.O.S.

25,000 50,000

20,000 40,000

- -J oi - 15,000 30,000

20,000

5,000 10,000 4,000 8,000 3,000 6,000 r • • • 2,000 4.000

1,000, 2,000,

mY » , , , I ,0- _L _L _L J 1 (-^ 2.000 3.000 50 110 150 200 250 300 350 400 4S0 500 "S 500 1,000 1,500 4,000 5,000 QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

-181- Flammable Liquid N OS Fuel Aviation Turbine 70,000 •

70,000 60,000 •

60,000 - 50.000

• 40,000 40,000

at oo < r^. -J CT> • .- 40,000 30,000 °> . a •

*3 30,000 20,000 •• •

20,000 10,000 8,000 i 6,000 • • • • 4,000 • 2,000. 10,000-

8) i . J- i l 8,000 1- f~ 1,000 2,000 3.000 4,000 5.000 7,500 10,000 0,0006,000 - 4,000 L QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) 2.000 h

nlu 111-. I ' ' _L 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 7,500 10,000 Petroleum Crude Oil QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

\ (627,634)

Fuel Oil I W92.106)

t ((254000;

t. 70,000 (1214,000)

60,000 60,000

50,000 50,000 -

40.000 a: co 40,000

2 30,000 30,000 J

20,000 20.000

10,000 10,000 6.000 6,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,0i 2,000 I r(>hm, " " r rdoo 2,uim2.U00 3.aoi3.000 4,oJ34,dJ3 J.dOOi.iii T$SS Pi .oouVdoo2.000 3.000 4T8B94,ulflJ ?,o6o?,06 7.J^T 10,000 10,000 QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) -182- .

Fuel Oil 1.2.4 5 Liquid Petroleum Gas

(tiMJH) •0.000 t

70400 70,000

HO.OO0- 60,000

50,000

BE CO K CO 3S? J o> § 40,000 40,000 1 i % 1 3

M.OO0 30,000

20,000 20,000 -

10400 10,000 - 1.000 1,000 - 6,000 6,000 (- 4,000 4,000 1400

2.001 • I I «l • 0, ,1 1.000 2.000 1.000 4.000 5,000 7.500 r;ooo 2,000 3,000 4.000 5.000 7,900 10,000 1Q.00O 8UANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

Hydrochloric Acid Oil NO S

40.000 40.000

£ 30.000 30.000 D i « 00 < r-» -I C7V IT

20,000 M.000 5 3

10.000 »- 10.000 6,000 - 6.000 6,000 - 6,000 4,000 - 4,000 2,000 - 2,000 ol^-s. 2.000 3.000 4.000 500 1,000 1.500 2.000 3.000 4,'sfor TSbV 1,000 5,000 7.500 10,006 QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS) 3UANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

-183- Sodium Hydroxide Liquid

40,000 •

35,000

Paint, Enamel, Lacquer, Stain 30,000

80.000 20,000

o-I —I 'x- a • h- w 70,000 5 3 1 t- CQ 18,000 s

60.000 10,000

50.000 • tx oo 8,000 < r** -I 4.000 3,000 • 2,000 • • • a 40.000 1,000

1 1 1 i 1

1 SOO 1,000 1,500 2.000 l.ooo 4,000 5,000 QUANTITY RELEASED (SALLONS)

30,000 Sulfuric Acid

30,000-

20.000-

28,000-

10,000- 8.000- 8.000- 4,000- 2 20,000

2.1

7 2.000 3,000 4.000 5,000 nF 500 1,000 1 SOO

a 18,000

10,000

8400 4.000 3.000 2,000 1,000 • a. ji i i j_ 500 1,000 1,500 2.000 3.000 4,000 5,000 QUANTITY RELEASED (GALLONS)

-184- GASOLINE

5

160,000

1 1 7 5

80,000

21 1 1 6 19

1 i 40,000

20,000

u (0 B PQ U 13 4 M 2 2 6 5 C o u 10,000

12 7 3 1 6 9

5,000

14 12 4 13 31 47

1,000

63 15 14 17 15 7

500 1,000 2,000 .,000 8,000 16,000

Amount Released (Gallons)

-185- 1

APPENDIX D

WORKSHEET 1: ROADWAY INVENTORIES FOR THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES

IN THE WASHINGTON, D„ C. , CASE STUDY

E

a Mi BE W Ml SgEt— «•) -3- in m in w £ -2. m -a- •a- 1 Mi

X m - 1 l 1 l 1

cc 1 l 1 i 1

an) 1 1 1 1

1

as

e 1 l ' 1 ' f- II z 3D > g| z x§ * 1 I 1 l 1

2E < ' o uas 1 l 1 .' to

* ' ' 1 ' 1

35 CO O o •H d oo in oo O 00

m in in ; : r m

3 o ro o CI

is- C : r - = § = 3u

2 *> ^0 vO v£> VO vO E

co to CO CO

1 1— 1 l 1 1 OC H h-l M

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-186- 1

ejf'

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<3- rl £ ° 5 m (Nl *» B£f -5- -a- m tN CM

X 1 1 1 1 l 1 s 1 1 E oc 1 i 1 l

- l i r l 1 . > O a 1 l i l I 1 2f- U >

* l i i I 1 > 1 <

5 < l l i 1 ' u c o :

s % 1 i ' i > 1

i_- V. in 00 o m d oo o m C o-> 00 ~3- oo m : = - - m m

K3 o m o CO oo m m en

c si* TO s = = r =

2 "> Is vO vO vT> -3- «3- -3-

O w CO CO to tO to to « ft. 1 1 1 1 1 1 M M 1— M

ij C 1 1 I ai — mm , __ m TO o TO X ^ 1 ^ O • • •• u • - ( C E 5 o 2 5" 4,c ' -H t3 00 TO •uti a MV lOHUC tJ TO -H 3 "* C -H c 3 C C C V X £ 1 TO u — b- UPC: H C O X H 3 TO 1 E- < « > M mH Pi X < •> *> < u a C £ oe JS = 1 1 1 i 1 i «t o &. * CM CM CN

-187- i

£ e | : „ - * £ 8 £I

_ e m Mrf W »» *"> « CD -=" -O E e a r^ o o u S CM CI CM s; — O -a- «* * X CM co CO Kw -"V I,

X l 1 K 1 S m •c 1 1 1 ts - 1 i 1

a ul © w^) X H 11 55 1 o o z SC* W Cb. >a. z il * 1 o o <

Sc X cc 1 o o © R 2? a: W i ac * 1 o o

CO o m

« s.s o o SO m CO ©

£ X in m m in -a

5 mIS «tf CO \o 3 »H CM CM

C re •illis . -

5 *» S 2 -a- •3- -a- KI —c •*" v> a *-> 5 . -H i Is * ^ H » < ji 3 < 2 ^J © •• o >,m i K 3 « • o -O p . 5 H i 5 > u s- ci J < O •x »— •s ~ -S *P 1 CM CM CM

-188- 01 o c re tA under 1!C

i- a reverse JO g. u e ae C Q 01 u z where St turn VI 4J 3 1H X

U 01 direction carriers 01 E T3 1-295 3 C Sharp z re

e

ae

NO cm ON 00 On CM ON CM m -3- CM a e K vO CO 00 00 o U ff — en

s 1 1 l 1 1 1 S E QC 1 1 l 1 1 1

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< 1 1 l DC 1 1 c :

E

1 1 I I * .!

-1 <3 I I On CI ON in O CM CM CM i

i

S z S =

19 in in eo O CM CM m C

c re ill 31j r ; : . :

nC NO NC NO

CO CO CO CO CO CO Is 1 M1 1 1

in in in •• 01 " a) 01 1 • 00 M 1 >. a ,- ? £ K E ON On •• 01 Oi •• 00 01 O J= 4-1 -c ••.sot? • • jr oi -5 X, • • *J -u c o en il 4J l- O -a- o ^£ u C t* H m 00 > O Uvl O -H | -H C 3 JJ 4J •" »j — *-• k- 4i S U 1 1 H 3 H -H re e -^ H •* H < E- 3

1 1 1 I 1 fc en 1 m m S3

-189- * *

E

e HI ss SSf o o a e B CM CM en CM O -3 -3 CM CM en ft i^/

2 1 - l i s mac - 1 1 l 1 - 1 1 l i > OS O X 1 1 o o H l_l Z P > z

* 1 1 o o < a 5c £ < ' 1 © o « tat c an a- U E BE * 1 1 o o d m S I d d as CO m

e _ in £- m = a-

£ 00 en CM CM

c ill : = =

«/5 =3

" ft £ -a- -3 -3 -3" K

1 o O .. 0) •• a 1 m m o c « • .. . « T3 >J • .. o> 5 H C u tl O '-3 3 fe H C H II CO > > H 1 >« 4J Bi CO Cu .J O < m a! M <-> * 1 1 nI i

-190- < < <

£ £ jf- K *^ * "5 * a 8 £I

e

ac U-r tu ta. V» « CD = t~. -a o e 00 -a o Eg vO u-> o> CM r- 00 £ O S t» — CM on m "" U c -h" CM CM CM •H m K

• 1 1 1 Z 1 1 K

c ae l 1 1 1 1 1

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1 1 1 1

> rjj a. W^ 2 r*. o i H 1 1 1 1 m z " >

z i Si 1 1 oo > * 1 <

a vO B s

DC 1 1 1 1 i m 13 if » • K U £

1 1 1 i m ^ 1

cq PM <3 —4 r^ CO a: o\ PI r** CT\ vO s i vD a: o CM CM CM O _H F— •— in

in in m m in m -1 U1 in U1 in •a *n "- m

s ON E5 r-~ m oi 00 •a ~^ 3 (V) CM CM — CM

C c c ~i~ I re •O .o .c J3 ill 3 P : = = 31- a 2 v> 6 vO vO vD M5 vfi >3- I 5

rt s : = 2 1 -H iJ u h w £ < oj

• • t^J JJ 4J u •• 4-1 C 4J 0) >*B O i •U gin m o> .. J) 0) g 01 10* 01 BO oi m >i e •• 0) CO • • •• ft) E 0O> On 01 4) E 0) o) •• 60 01 O O00I ".C 4J T3 J= "O cu o pm sr o.*: p Cii P O C U U CP Sul BO > .. 4J Id "H ..3i4 H PO 1 19 ei Cm M M OC/5 fnOC/3 S*!c/3 !«**> 2-H M H —i w eo Hzrx! 035 03 o O H 1 b 1 1 * •a- 1 -J -» . . •a

-191- £ s |. K - * §*"S "I «.

o Hi C» «f— a«--) •= B S f K g o © O o | CM en m CM g o B 00 -3 -3- •3 s|" «3 m o en V)

s , l l K

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1 1 1 - 1 l l

Uj C i+l*f> s U1 K • O o o z ©§1S in > »•* z ii CM * '—' o o o c bbJ c s 00 < QC c (9 k — o o o c_> m m. fr- -3- it; * © o o u

ffv CM !r\ 35 © as ° p CI vO o r^ vO in m ei

£3— in in m m •« -3 -3 -3 •3

CM m VO 13E S CM ~* CM CM

c to XI _ . . ill Li

s - -3- -3 «3 «3 9I -^

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-192- I Ii I

E E E E p£« £-54 "5 E o ° 1 E o o ? '" if is * o> r o > i CO *" X CD w X x in* 0 CO — fl o 5 & °° vO . 00 co • oo • 00 < M in *~ VO CO On sf VDH m r- m ' o\ q 00 X • O CM C/3 if ii n oc II II jf O EL o o u O u o u o o u CD CD cs •S ST

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-199- APPENDIX E

WORKSHEETS 2 AND 3: CONSEQUENCES OF A FLAMMABLE LIQUID RELEASE ON THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN THE WASHINGTON, D. C. CASE STUDY

Alternative:.

Date:. WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. Clan; Flammable Liquid

PageJjrfJ. Impact BaiUm; -5 mile

6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SKCML

1 PERCENT OF TRACT . _ POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # 0/0 NUMBER POPULATION > C IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA From 1-395 and 1-495 4014 3734 .47 1755 8 schools 1-A To Tele- 4036 3396 .10 340 graph Rd. 4015 2689 .81 2178

4016 4941 .73 3607

4017 4274 .13 556

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 8436

4018 4127 .28 1156 3 schools 1-B 4019 5559 .79 4392

2007 1749 .22 385

To Rte. 1 .88 2741 2Q2Q n Q2, 3115

2017 1292 .11 142

4002 4622 .05 231

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 9047

L-C To: Indian 8014.03 2944 .20 589 1 school Head Hwy. 8014.04 3102 .14 434

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 1023

8014.05 5139 .49 2518 6 schools

8015 3585 .36 1291

L-D 8017.03 10289 .59 6071

8014.02 3748 .05 187

8017.02 2784 .93 2589

8017.01 5976 .05 299

8017.05 3742 .05 187

8019.02 630 .17 107-

-200- .

Alternative

POPULATION INVENTORY Date. WORKSHEET t H.M. Class: Flammable Liquid

Pim.2jf.2_ Impact »»iuw .5 mile

6

SCSMOIT corns men SKOAL

me»T»TMci . rarounoN in popuunow # 0/0 HOMO roruuruw < • IK IMPACT JUU f WMCT «U

8,019.01 6,453 .33 2,129

1-D 8,019.03 7,089 .43 3,048 (co at'd) To 8,019.04 4,116 .44 1,811 Pennsylva- nia Avenue 8.011.02 6.418 .07 449

8,021.01 5,155 .27 1,392

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 22,078

8.022.02 9,789 .19 1,860 4 schools

8,022.01 669 .43 288

es: •IMATED AREA 12,092 1-E 8,028.02 7,291 .12 875

8,035.02 1,653 .24 397 To: 1-495 and Rte. 50 8,035.03 7,735 .26 2,011

8,036.02 4,487 .31 1,391

8,036.01 2,493 .44 1,097

8,036.08 5,597 .05 280

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX 20,291

-

-201- Alternative.

WORKSHEET 3: PROPERTY INVENTORY Flammable Liquid Date H.M. dan;

Page_iof_I_ Impact Radius .5 mile

SEGMENT LAND USE (mils hwtiitt rojtfmjl NUMBER OF ROADWAY STRUCTURES SPECIAL Hi-oENsrn MO-QENSITY 10W-0ENSITY PROPERTIES O/O PUBLIC INDUSTRIAL # RESID. RESIO. RESia COMMERCIAL BRIDGE OVERPASS

1-A 2.1 1.7 0.5(0.4) 2.1 (3) 1

Sewage 1-B 0.1 0.8 0.3(0.1) 0.7(0.2) (1) (2) Treatment Plant

1-C 0.8(0.2) 0.2(0.1) (1) (3) Woodrow Wilson Bridge

1-D (0.1) 4.5 6.4(0.3) 1.5(1.0) 0.2(0.1) (2) (1)

1-E 5.0 2.3 2.0 (2) (5)

Note: Values in parentheses are observations made during a "drive-by" inspection and represent our best judgement as to the land-use type. The other cell entries were developed from land-use maps.

-202- .

Alttrnathra:

WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY Date. H.M. C|nr^l annnat)le Liquid

PapJjfJ. Impact fariiiif .5 mile

6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT Of TRACT . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # 0/0 NUMBER POPULATION ( IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA From 1-395 and 1-495 4,014 3,734 .47 1,755 8 schools

>-A To: d.mfi 7,?Q6 in KUO Telegraph Road 4,015 2,689 .81 2,178

4,016 4,941 .73 3,607

4,017 4,274 .13 556

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 8,436

4,018 4,127 .28 1,156 3 schools

4,019 5,559 .79 4,392 »-B To: Rte 1 2,007 1,749 .22 385

2,020.02 3,115 .88 2,741

2,017 1,292 .11 142

4,002 4,622 .05 231

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 9,047

To: Indian !-C Head Hwy. 8.014.03 2,944 - .20 589 1 school

^ 8,014.04 3,102 .14 434

TOTAL XXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 1,023

!-D 73.08 1.153 .61 7m To: 1-295 8.211 .17 l.lQfi & Portland , 7^,07 Street 73.01 5,211 .67 3,491

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 5,590

73.01 5,211 .28 1,459 2 schools

»-E 73.02 5,751 .05 289 To: Suit- land Park- 96 4.341 .17 738 way 74,02 12.789 .05 639 -

-203- .

Alternative

WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY Flammable Liquid Date: H.M. flan;

Pan? rf2 impact Radius: .5 mile

1 2 3 4 5 6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

1 PERCENT OF TRACT . . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # 0/0 NUMBER POPULATION ; < IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA

2-E 74.01 4.538 .84 3.812 ( :ont 'd) TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 6,937

75.01 7,953 .38 3,022 4 schools To: Minne- 2-F sota Ave. 76.01 7 17? .95 6,766 76.02 8,673 .05 434 V 77.01 6,514 1.00 6,514

68.03 1,471 .05 74

77.02 7,182 .49 3,519

78.02 7,786 .95 7,397

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 27,726

: 2-G ro:B-W Parkway 78.01 7.745 .36 2.788 4 schools

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 2,788

8,043 4,319 .75 3,239 1 school

8,042 4,777 .71 3,392 2-H To : Land- over Ave. 8,041.01 2,083 .78 1,635

8,032 3,496 .41 1,433

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX 9,699

2 schools 8,041.02 5,597 .35 1.959

« -I To: 1-495 md Rte 50 8,035.03 7,735 .17 1,315

8,037 3,831 .53 2,030

8,036.02 4,487 .50 2,244

8,036.03 10,406 .22 2,289

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 9,837

-204- tUimtim- I

WORKSHEET 3: PROPERTY INVEHTORY Date. H.M. n^n-Flammable Liquid

P«I«_io<_L. Impact Radius - 5 mile

SB.MOT UMO US (ate fnrttag nMm) NUMBER OF MUMMY STRUCTURES SPECIAL * O/O M-OFJKITT mo-knsitt imwcNsm mo. RISIO. ttsia rustic CUIMEKUL INDUSTKML MIME wares PROPERTIES

2-A 2.1 1.7 0.5(0.4) 2.1 3 1

2-B 0.1 0.8 (0.1) 0.3(0.1) 0.7(0.2 1 2 Sewage Treatment Plant

2-C 0.8(0.2) 0.2(0.1) 1 3 Woodrow Wilson Bridge

2-D 0.5(0.5) 0.7(0.5) 1.0(1.0 1 Sewage Treatment Plant

2-E 0.4(0.3) 0.2 L.0(0.5) 2

2-F 0.2(0.2) 1.0(0.6) 0.2 3.5(0.2) 2 3

2-G 0.5(0.2) 0.1 1 1

2-H 0.5(0.2) . 3.7(0.4) 4

2-1 0.4(0.2) 0.4(0.3) 0.5 3.8(0.2) 2 1

Note: Values in parenthesis are observations made during a "drive-by" inspection and represent pur best judgement as to the land-use type. The other cell entries were developed from land-use maps.

-205- .

AltffIMtiVK

Flammable Liquid Date. WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY HJL (^

Pagejj*—3- Impact Badim: .5 mil e

6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT Of TRACT . _ POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # O/O mum population ( IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA From 1-4^5 and 1-395 4.035 6.511 .36 2,344 3-A To: Duke 4,036 3,396 .58 1,970 Street 4,055 3,314 .04 133

2,004 4,204 .13 547 TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 4,994 \J

2,001.03 5,723 .51 2,919

2,003.03 1,482 .62 919

2,001.04 3,180 .91 2,894 3-B 2,003.01 2,944 1.00 2,944

2,003.02 5,910 .32 1,891 To: King Street 2,001.05 2,146 .08 172

2.002 2.608 1.00 2.608

2,001.01 4,360 .28 1,221

2,001.01 2,826 .37 1,046

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 16,614

1,029 6,599 .55 3,629

1,030 4,137 .67 2,772

2,010 3,497 .68 2,378

2,011 6,441 .05 322

To: 1,038 3.716 .64 2,378 Washing- ton Blvd. 1 031 4,691 .32 1,501 ?

1,037 2,955 .33 975

1,032 6,696 .47 3,147

1,033 1,046 .95 994 -

-206- .

Alternative:

POPULATION Flammable Liquid Date WORKSHEET £ INVENTORY H.M. Oat

5 mlle Pagi_2flf_L Impact a**.- -

1 2 3 4 5 6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT Of TRACT . POPUUTKW IN POPULATIONS # 0(D NUMBER raniumoN ( IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT ARE* l-C

( :ont •d) 103 4,872 .05 244

TOTAL xxxxxxxx XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX 18,340 J-D To: 14th Street 1,035 4,181 .49 2,049 Bridge 1,034 5,814 .22 1,279

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 3,328

62 495 .56 277 3-f To: 11th Street 61 1,112 .83 923 Bridge 60.01 4,056 .59 2,393

60.02 922 1.00 922

65 3,689 .70 2,582

70 3,133 1.00 3,133

72 4,290 .73 3,132

71 4,264 .80 3,411

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX 16,773

3-F To: 74.01 4,538 .53 2,405 Sultland Parkway 75.01 7,953 .30 2,386

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 4,791

75.01 7,953 .38 3,022 3-G To: 76.01 7,122 .95 6,766 Minnesota Ave. 76.02 8,673 .05 434

77.01 6,514 1.00 6,514

68.03 1,471 .05 74

77.02 7,182 .49 3,519

78.02 7,786 .95 7,397 "

-207- Date. WORKSHEET t POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. tt—fFlamroable Liquid

PHaJjfJL Impact Bartiii*- . 5 mile

6

SEGMENT eaSUS TRACTS SPECIAL 1 percent or tract . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS homer population . # 0(0 ; C IN IHPMT AREA IMPACT AREA i-G (cor t*d) TOTAL xxxxxxxxx XXXXXXXXXX xxxxxxxxxxxxx 27,726

To:B-W Pwa: 1 3-H & Rte 50 .36 2,788 78.01 7.745 i

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX xxxxxxxxxxxx 2,788

8,043 4,319 .75 3,239 3-1 To: 8,042 4,777 .71 3,392 V Landover Avenue 8.041.01 2,083 .78 1,625

8,032 3,496 .41 1,433 u

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX xxxxxxxxxxx 9,689

3-J .35 1,959 To: 8,041 5,597 1-495 & Rte. 50 8,035.03 7,735 .17 1,315

8,037 3,831 .53 2,030

fi. 0,36,02. 4.487 .50 2.244

8.036.03 10,406 .22 2,289

TOTAL XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX xxxxxxxxxxx 9,837

-

-208- Alternative:.

WORKSHEET 3: PROPERTY INVENTORY Flammable Liquid Data H.M. dan:

- 5 mile Page_Lofl_ Impact Radius

NUMBER OF ROADWAY SE6UENT UNO USE (mHa fratini nadmjl STRUCTURES SPECIAL HI-OENSITT MD4ENSITT lOW-OENSITT PROPERTIES O/o PUBUC COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL BRIDCE OVERPASS # RESIO. RESIO. RESIO.

(3) (4) 3-A .2(0.4) 1 (0.3) .3 .5(1.1) 2(0.3)

3-B .3(0.3) 2.0(0.4) (0.7) .2 .8(0.3) (2) (6)

3-C (0.3) 1.0 1.2(0.4) 1.0 .5 (0.2) (2) (6)

3-D (0.6) 2.0 1.2(0.4) (10) (1)

3-E 1.0(0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.2) (3) (10)

(1) 3-F .5(0.2) (0.1) .5 (1)

3-G 2.0(0.2) (0.6) .4 (0.2) (2) (3)

(1) 3-H (0.1) (0.1) 1.5 .3 (1)

3-1 1.0 (0.2) 1.0 (0.4) (4)

3-J 1.0 (0.2) (0.3) 1.0 (0.2) (2) (1)

"drive-by' Note: Values in parentheses are observations made during a inspection and represent our best judgement as to the land-use type. The other cell entries were developed from land-use maps.

-209- .

Alternative

WORKSHEET 2: Date. POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. OattElfflmahlS Liquid

Pagiiof. Impact BarfiiM: .5 mile

6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT OF TRACT . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # O/O NUMBER population > ' IN IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA

4-A From 1-495 4,035 6,511 .36 2,344 & 1-395 4,036 3,396 .58 1,970

To : Duke Street 4,055 3,314 .04 133

2,004 4,204 .13 547 'V TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX xxxxxxxxxxx 4,994

2,001.03 5,723 .51 2,919

4-B 2,003.03 1,482 .62 919

2,001.04 3,180 .91 2,894

2,003.01 2,944 1.00 2,944

2,003.02 5,910 .32 1,891

.08 172 2,001.05 2,146 - To: 2,608 King St. 2,002 2,608 1.00

2,001.01 4,360 .28 1,221

2,001.01 2,826 .37 1,046

TOTAL XXXXXXXX CXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX 16,614

1,029 6,599 .55 3,629 i-C 1,030 4,137 .67 2,772

2,010 3,497 .68 2,378

To: 2,011 6,441 .05 322 Washington Blvd. 1,038 3,716 .64 2,378

1,031 4,691 .32 1,501

1,037 2,955 .33 975

1,032 6,696 .47 3,147

1,033 1,046 .95 994"

-210- .

Altamatiw:

Date WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. r-liwg Flammable L iquid

Pag«2j>f_3_ Impact R««i«. -5 mile

1 2 3 4 5 6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT OF TRACT . POPULATION IN POPULATIONS # O/O NUMBER POPULATION ; < IK IMPACT AREA IMPACT AREA

4-C 1,036 4,872 .05 244 (coi it'd) TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX* xxxxxxxxxxx L8.340

4-D To: 1,035 4,181 .49 2,049 14th St. Bridge 1,034 5,814 .22 1,279

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 3,328

62 495 .52 257

4-E To : New 61 1,112 1.00 1,112 Jersey Ave.

1 . Rte. 50 6Q.01 4.056 1.00 4,056

60.02 922 .75 692

59 1,638 1.00 1,638

58 1,192 .27 322

47 3,701 1.00 3,701

48.02 2,864 1.00 2,864

49.02 2,527 .05 126

48.01 3,661 .27 988

46 5,830 .71 4,139

TOTAL XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 19,895

86 547 .54 295 To: 4-F Brentwood 87 7,585 .60 4,551 Parkway

91.02 6,403 .65 4,162

88.01 7,224 .86 6,213

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 15,221

91.01 4,967 .12 596

90 1,909 .58 1,107

-211- Alternative.

Date:. WORKSHEET 2: POPULATION INVENTORY H.M. date Flammable Liquid

PagaJofJ. Impact n.awr -5 mile

1 2 3 4 s 6

SEGMENT CENSUS TRACTS SPECIAL

PERCENT Of TRACT . population in POPULATIONS # OfO NUMBER rarauTiON IN IMPACT AREA impact area

4-G To : South 89.01 4,621 .41 1,895 Dakota Ave. 78.01 7,745 .22 1,704

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 15,677

4-B To:B-W 4.319 .25 1,080 Parkwav 8,042 "\J TOTAL xxxxxxxxxx XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX 1,080 4-1 To: Landover 8,043 4,319 .75 3,239 Ave. 8,042 4,777 .71 3,392

8,041.01 2,083 .78 1,625

8,032 3,496 .41 1,433

TOTAL XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX 9,689

l-J 8,041.02 5,597 .35 1,959 To: 1-495 & 8,035.03 7,735 .17 1,315 Rte. 50 8,037 3,831 .53 2,030

8,036.02 4,487 .50 2,244

8,036.03 10,406 .22 2,289

TOTAL XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXX 9,837

-212- Alternative.

WORKSHEET 3: PROPERTY INVENTORY Flammable Liquid Date: HM Class:

' 5 mile Pag»i_o»_±_ Impact Radius

SECMM LAND USE (mfla Irootint rosdssrl NUMBER Of ROADWAY STRUCTURES SPECIAL OIO HMEHSOT MlWiNSITY lqw-oensitt # PUBLIC PROPERTIES RtSID. RESIO. RESIO. COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL BRIDGE OVERPASS

4-A .2 (0.4) 1 (0.3) .3 .5(1.1) 2 (0.3) (3) (4)

4-B .3 (0.3) 2.0 (0.4) (0.7) .2 .8 (0.3) (2) (6)

4-C (0.3) 1.0 1.2 (0.4) 1.0 .5 (0.2) (2) (6)

4-D (0.6) 2.0 1.2(0.4] (10) (1) Pentagon

4-E (.2) .4 (.1) 1.0 (.4) .5 (.3) (2) (12)

4-F .8 (.4) (.2) 1.0(.6) (0) (0)

4-G (.2) .5 (.2) 2.0(1.5) (2) (2)

4-H (.1) (.4) •5 (.2) (2) (1)

4-1 1.0 (0.2) 1.0 (0.4) (4)

4-J 1.0 (0.2) (0.3) L.O (0.2) (2) (1)

1 M„<-„ represent our best judgement as to the land-use type. The other cell entries were developed from land-use maps.

-213- APPENDIX F

CONTROL MEDIUMS FOR SELECTED HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FIRES

CO 4c COw zEh H W H >t rH 5-1 5-1 Eh Q H H Q U J fa O U 4e i < H o z in U H (0 5-1 J Q CO fa O W « > . Eh J m 2p CO O > d •d w U Z »d o ^ H •H O d) $ o D 6 c I •d H Eh>h (0 CT 3 •H •H rd •H 0) g fi Q Eh rj J rH rd rd 0) >i W Z *d H CO S-l 0) w c. 0) c C >1 u Q 4J 5-1 D D d) c V 0) 43 a 5 rH & u\ 0) P Eh U g £ W rH o P* i D*rH •H D « •P H u g fa u •0 1 •H grH •d H i >i •H 5-1 O -H o Eh Eh CO W < W K s r-H* U « S CO O g

-214- CO CO m

in 10 m m in m m m m in in

O1 •H h! •0 • 43 cr •0 •H Q CO *> •H •H »0 ^ • en & Hi 3 < •H o • D» iH X 13 id t o M id c fa u •H J2 2 *a •H •H >o u O 4J 2 •P •P C •M M •H U < 3 tr CO CO CO CO cd 9 •P >i U •H cr 3 • Q) > « iH < s A H a •H to O >i rH •H (B jC •H 4J •H c •J u • U •H u to U g M rH CO o s +» U CO +» •H 9 9 id 3 10 •o id *J (0 Q> u • O M M •H •O iH a 1 u iH •H (0 (d 0«H • rH >i •H 3 CO 3 a> < < Hi CQ u UhI U 2 w a Z CO CO < CJ fa *

vo V0 V0 10 vo VO vo CN

vo vo vo vo vo vo vo in CM in m in in

o c o CO a o o 0) < u «D fe > O +* H 'H CO CO to id •H •p H CO >1 CO ,Q CO CO CO jfi 3 3 id H a> CO g id id •0 1 H Q Ou O Ou rH rH rH rH •h (0 •H O U u O CO id a a U c .c 3 c^ > > > Ou O'H cq 3 c u •H •H •H *H O O CO o •H 3 •H a) CO CO 10 4J rH •H c c cr o rH Z P •P 0*H >i C o CO co rH rH rH rH id CO CO o a h! A id o 04 Ou a a j-> 0* •H •H c to rH o X X X X •H C M 0) M o CQ fa fa u w a H S O fa fa

-215- m in m in in in m m m m m m

C k M • JQ en A h3 • a) M • CO id u O CO > 3 CO ^ • o • E* • o «H • • o g u CO k • rH • o CO CO 0) • C • H z •H • • z os V o z 0) 4J o o 04 • H (0 • • E H cr •p •M • •H z H id z z •H c id o CO c u Q ^ •H 1 •H • 4J 4J O a) 3 a) o iH id •H > c «H 4J z c SJ a 6 •H o^ G-H rH 4J rH

CO Z z

G at o\ in m m in m m z z D

0i 3 ft CO -P •H •P id •H s id •P H IH H • G H •P o P D1 CO •H O •a 9 H p •H •H • H fa C4 a) •H z CO »-3 •0 o • • O § O fa W 1 a CO CO fa H o •h o CO •H z •O iH u .Q • (0 IH ' a> O CO >i JS W z a •H (0 rH w w s O id H 3 CO .a o o O u U +» fa CT id id x: rH 04 •H id •H O CO a. 0) O s G J w a; •H I W O & id o o •a U P >1 t* IN S rH • o id JS •H X H O fa Z fa CO CO u CJ Z o < U u

-216- en oi

01

-p co H 0) «J CO •H P U 5-i

CO c iH o fd g -P rd w 5-1 0> e •H O w fd fl to £ 1 >i-H flj 5-1 g rH o CO rH o •H P a (0 CO •H to Q CN (0 i ^ D 5-1 * U £ 13 5-1 d) 5-1 i •H i o u c s CO >i >i 4J •H •H P iw 5-1 •H •H •H fd C 1 >i 3 P >i >1 >1 p CN OJ rH 5-1 5-1 H fd fd S-l 5-1 5-1 fd fr* X b Q a fa U S Q a a [2

11 II II II II ii II II II ii ii

rH o rH rH rH

-217- \r» o\ W Q H D O w w W 2 W O H ft H Q O * Q) U tn i a) £ •H •P +> £ <*P 3 Q Q •H •H >5 O H W •O u ^ 4-4 D1 en O p (0 •H •H D c •H p U M (-h" •H c c C D u H H T3 c G •H O H >1 >i O e .Q Q H M ,C £ fH U o U fa o g O M (C 2 < < £ < w CQ « U

-218- HH^^H^BM — C D

DC m

o

0) T3 1 •H ^ •H M •H 0) P 0) '4-1 tr c rH rH •H •H •H x: D 0) £ M u CO c o •H H rH c c E CQ c SZ i >i O u u U J3 D T3 T3 T3 5 rH >i >i >i 0) 0) fa B s S s a

in in in

cr •Ha 0) -P c d •H 0) CD IW M 0) <0 c rH T3 M •H •H 3 >i a X E W .C E o id f0 •iH rH r-i H a) 0) c >i >1 c c •H .C ,C H a> a U P -P £ rH t-\ O CD O >1 >i H E E •H A J3 •H •H £L P P Q Q H w H

-219- '

4-1 u Q

to o •H (0

•o 0) •H rH Ou

z Z vo a-

p •H XO u I Z z •H DC w 0) c T3 •H •H X a, 0) o •H n T3 'O S3 S-l 4J •H •H to o tr> u u c C 3 P-H •> «J 0) rH u «4H 4-1 g •P 4J rH rH 3 T3 >i •H •H 3 3 fa H — 3 fO s Z w W U S

0) * W rH C 0) O M a 3 tQ (TJ 0) i-3

o r-» C ^

H r-l 0) e w a) +j

-220- 1

APPENDIX G

WORKSHEET 4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS FOR THE FOUR ALTERNATIVE ROUTES IN

THE WASHINGTON, D. C. , CASE STUDY

Alternative:

L WORKSHEET 4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS H.M. fl urFlammable iquid Date:

Impact RaiBuir .5 mile Page_L.of.L_

i 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 se.ment / HJL accident J / SEGMENT J SEGMENT f (ANT VEHICU ACQ ~Z P(HJl VOL ACCJ z mruiAnoti > v inaoEMCc fktoi >> WPUUTIOII —

6 •* 10 6 1-A 7.680 x 10" 13 1 10 1.766 x 10" 8436 1.490 x 10~

6 11 7 10~ if 10" 10" 1-B 1.971 x 4.533 x • 9047 4.101 x

6 10 7 1-C 4.986 x 10" »! 1.147 x 10" 1023 1.173 x 10~

6 10 6 1-D 9.185 x 10~ it 2.113 x 10~ 22078 4.664 x 10~

6 II 10 6 1-E 12.084 x 10~ 2.779 x 10~ 20291 5.640 x 10~

»• _:> TOTAL 1.232 x 10 n

I!

II

II

II

II

1

II

II

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11 '

It

-s U 1 10

-221- Alternative.

WORKSHEET 4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS H.M. Ch Date.

Pagei_ofl 2 3 4 S 6 l "1 SEEMENT 1 y tULMaDENT J / SEGMEHT J - r(Anr Z P(H.M. VEH. ACCJ raniunoN SEGMENT vehicu agcj S /> rapuunoH — y INCIDENCE FKTOI ~ USX

6 -5 10 6 2-A 7.680 x 10" U 1 10 1.766 x 10~ 8436 1.490 x 10"

6 If U 7 2-B 1.971 x 10~ 4.533 x 10~ 9047 4.101 x 10"

6 10 7 2-C 4.986 x 10" »J 1.147 x 10" 1023 1.173 x 10~

6 10 7 2-D 5.146 x 10" 1* 1.184 x 10" 5>90 6.619 x 10~

6 U 7 2-E 3.798 x 10" II 8.735 x 10~ 6937 6.060 x 10~

6 10 6 2-F 9.204 x 10" »• 2.117 x 10" 27726 5.870 x 10~

6 -11 7 2-G 2.808 x 10~ II 6.458 x 10 2788 1.801 x 10~

6 10 10~6 2-H 7.889 x 10~ If 1.815 x 10~ 9699 1.760 x

10~6 10 6 2-1 8.892 x II 2.045 x 10" 9837 2.021 x 10~

-5 •« TOTAL 1.311 x 10

11

II

11 .

If

11

11

11

11

11

11

II

11

11

UiWs

-222-

«- -i Alternative:.

4: POPULATION RISK CALCULATIONS H.M.

Impact Radius: .5 mile PageJLofJ

i 5 6

1 1 SEGMENT / UK. ACCIDENT J / SE6MENT J SEGMENT P|ANT VEHICLE ACt) )* Z PSUL VEH. ACt) > r raruumoN V INCIDENCE FACTOR ~ ^ WULATKffl - Ittt

-5 6 13 1 10 10 7 3-A 4.773 x 10~ 1.098 x 10~ 4994 5.482 x 10"

6 10 6 3-B 5.385 x 10~ it 1.239 x 10~ 16614 2.059 x 10"

6 10 6 3-C 5.493 x 10~ >t 1.263 x 10~ 18340 2.317 x 10~

6 *• U 7 3-D 3.996 x 10~ 9.191 x 10~ 3328 3.059 x 10"

6 10 6 3-E 6.204 x 10" ii 1.427 x 10" 16773 2.394 x 10"

6 »» U -7 3-F 1.984 x 10~ 4.563 x 10~ 4791 2.186 x 10

6 10 6 3-G 9.204 x 10" ii 2.117 x 10" 27726 5.870 x 10"

6 U 7 3-H 2.808 x 10" M 6.458 x 10~ 2788 1.801 x 10"

6 li 10 -6 3-1 7.889 x 10~ 1.815 x 10" 9689 1.760 x 10

6 10 6 3-J 8.892 x 10" it 2.045 x 10" 9837 2.012 x 10~

it 5 TOTAL 1.767 x 10~

it

ti .

it

tt

tt

tt

it

it

it

it

••

tt

ii

-J 13 1 10

-223- Alternative.

4: POPULATION H.M. ctosElamafclfl Liquid Date. WORKSHEET RISK CALCULATIONS

Radius; .5 mile PinXof_L Impact 2 3 * 5 6 1 "1 SEGMENT / hjl accident J • SEGMENT J - SEGMENT why vehicle acq Z P(HJL YEH. ACCJ y wfuution > •v INCIOENCE FKTOI ~ > rOPUUTION - iisk

6 11 -S 10 7 4-A 4.773 x 10" 13 1 1.098 x 10~ 4994 5.482 x 10"

6 10 6 4-B 5.385 x 10~ if 1.239 x 10~ 16614 2.058 x 10"

6 10 6 4-C 5.493 x 10" IJ 1.263 x 10~ 18340 2.317 x 10"

6 11 7 4-D 3.996 x 10~ 11 9.191 x 10" 3328 3.059 x 10"

6 10 6 4-E 5.724 x 10" it 1.317 x 10" 19895 2.619 x 10"

" 6 10 1 6 4-F 7.812 x 10~ »• 1.797 x 10" 15221V 2.735 x 10~

6 10 6 4-G 10.604 x 10~ •1 2.439 x 10* 15667 3.821 x 10"

7 6 11 2.586 x 10~ 4-H 3.773 x 10~ If 8.678 x 10" 2980

6 10 6 4-1 7.889 x 10~ if 1.815 x 10" 9689 1.759 x 10"

10 6 4-J 6 tf 2.045 x 10" 9837 2.012 x 10" 8.892 x 10"

5 i« TOTAL 1.843 x 10~

if

ft

if

• t

ti

if

ti

ti

it

ii

it

ii

ti

13iWs

-224- APPENDIX H

STATISTICAL DESCRIPTORS FOR PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS

INTERSTATE MODEL (27)

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL

ROADWAY TYPE (Accident Rate vs. AADT) FOR POPULATION r(f>)* (%)

I

Rural/Suburban

4 - Lane .210 99 6 - Lane .467 99 8 - Lane .552 99

Urban

4 - Lane .381 99 6 - Lane .300 99 8 - Lane .296 99 10 - Lane .591 99

different from zero. * Level of confidence at whiclid is (statistically) significantly

Figure H-l on the following page presents plots for the regression equations.

-225- o W <>1 o w Pi .'V O!3 w ° ? w 2 S H S d h- O _ N £ H • W55 _ u. o < M t- O > O _j O < <3 o o Otaj 4 < H O • hi> O < H

e • • • iH

1 o k 3 J3 o O • H P»4

• •MM »I»IM»A uoniin Jtd *3X*M 1N3QI33V 1VJ.01

-226- URBAN ARTERIALS (30)

One hundred sections of urban arterials, which varied in length from 01254 to 4.167 miles, were used to calibrate the regression model. The study sections were located in Lafayette and Indianapolis, Indiana. Most of the study sections were urban extensions of state highways be- cause of the availability of volume and accident data for them.

In two separate analyses, two different dependent variables were

regressed against the independent variables of volume (AADT) , the number of heavy volume intersections per mile, and the number of traffic signals per mile. The first dependent variable, number of accidents per 100 million vehicle-miles, failed to produce an equation that could explain more than 50 percent of the variability in accident rates on these sec- tions. Regressing the independent variable against the accident rate also produced illogical and contradictory results.

The regression equation for annual accidents per mile, on the other hand, explained 74 percent of the variability in the number of accidents on the study sections (R = .74). In addition, the signs of the coefficients are posi- tive and support the notion that more traffic interactions (e.g., intersections) result in more accidents.

LANE CONVENTIONAL RURAL HIGHWAYS (27)

Correlation Standard Error Coefficient MVM Number of of Estimate (Accident Rates Confidence Level* Equation In Sample Segments for the Regression vs. AADT) for Population r(p)

** Y=1.87+0.65/x 901 41 .94 .372 98%

* Level of confidence at which O is (statistically) significantly different from zero.

** Equation for a rolling, 2 - Lane Rural Highway with speeds > 55 mph.

Figure H-2 on the following page presents plots for the regression equations.

-227- 1 1 'ili! 'H**

C/3

<5

H

I Mo H W o

It S3 to u. O - < (C W »- w H >- _l 2 < o H S 111 W O o < <5

3H O H

• • Cvl W w oB M l^« fe

o n Figure 1 o

o • o o id cj —

• »I!W »|3!M»A uoi||!W jad ' 3J.VH 1N3OI00V 1V101

*U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1980 722-053/318 1-3 -228-

BOOKMARK

DATEDUE:^ A 4 1993 i (JCT TO'

^\

~--?+r\ FEDERALLY COORDINATED PROGRAM (FCP) OF HIGHWAY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

The Offices of Research and Development (R&D) of the quality of the human environment. The goals the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are are reduction of adverse highway and traffic responsible for a broad program of staff and contract impacts, and protection and enhancement of the research and development and a Federal-aid environment. program, conducted by or through the State highway transportation agencies, that includes the Highway 4. Improved Materials Utilization and Planning and Research (HP&R) program and the Durability National Cooperative Highway Research Program Materials R&D is concerned with expanding the (NCHRP) managed by the Transportation Research knowledge and technology of materials properties, Board. The is a carefully selected of FCP group proj- using available natural materials, improving struc- ects that uses research and development resources to tural foundation materials, recycling highway solutions to obtain timely urgent national highway materials, converting industrial wastes into useful engineering problems.* highway products, developing extender or

The diagonal double stripe on the cover of this report substitute materials for those in short supply, and represents a highway and is color-coded to identify developing more rapid and reliable testing the FCP category that the report falls under. A red procedures. The goals are lower highway con- costs stripe is used for category 1, dark blue for category 2, struction and extended maintenance-free light blue for category 3, brown for category 4, gray operation. for category for categories 5, green 6 and 7, and an 5. Improved Design to Reduce Costs, Extend orange stripe identifies category 0. Life Expectancy, and Insure Structural FCP Category Descriptions Safety

7 Structural R&D is concerned with furthering the 1. Improved Highway Design and Operation latest technological advances in structural and for Safety hydraulic designs, fabrication processes, and Safety R&D addresses problems associated with construction techniques to provide safe, efficient the responsibilities of the FHWA under the highways at reasonable costs. Highway Safety Act and includes investigation of appropriate design standards, roadside hardware, 6. Improved Technology for Highway signing, and physical and scientific data for the Construction

formulation of improved safety regulations. This category is concerned with the research, development, and implementation of highway 2. Reduction of Traffic Congestion, and Improved Operational Efficiency construction technology to increase productivity, reduce energy consumption, conserve dwindling Traffic R&D is concerned with increasing the resources, and reduce costs while improving the operational efficiency of existing highways by quality and methods of construction. advancing technology, by improving designs for existing as well as new facilities, and by balancing 7. Improved Technology for Highway

the demand-capacity relationship through traffic Maintenance management techniques such as bus and carpool This category addresses problems in preserving preferential treatment, motorist information, and the Nation's highways and includes activities in rerouting of traffic. physical maintenance, traffic services, manage-

3. Environmental Considerations in Highway ment, and equipment. The goal is to maximize Design, Location, Construction, and Opera- operational efficiency and safety to the traveling tion public while conserving resources.

Environmental R&D is directed toward identify- 0. Other New Studies

ing and evaluating highway elements that affect This category, not included in the seven-volume

official statement of the FCP, is concerned with * The complete seven-volume official statement of the FCP is available from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. 22161. Single HP&R and NCHRP studies not specifically related copies of the introductory volume are available without charge from Program to FCP projects. These studies involve R&D Analysis (HRD-3), Offices of Research and Development, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. 20590. support of other FHWA program office research. DOT LIBRARY

DDSbT03