SECURITIZATION IN YEMEN, 2000-2010: SHIFTING GEOGRAPHIES OF POLITICAL CONTENTION By JENNIFER ANDREA BARTMESS B.A., the University of Georgia, 2006 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment Of the requirement for the degree of Masters of Arts Department of Geography 2011 This thesis entitled: Securitization in Yemen, 2000-2010: Shifting Geographies of Political Contention by Jennifer Andrea Bartmess has been approved for the Department of Geography ______________________________________ John O’Loughlin ______________________________________ Najeeb Jan _______________________________________ John Willis ____________________ Date The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signatories, and we find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. ABSTRACT Bartmess, Jennifer Andrea (MA, Geography Department) Securitization in Yemen, 2000-2010: Shifting Geographies of Political Contention Thesis directed by Professor John O’Loughlin This thesis examines political conflict event data in Yemen from 2000-2010 to illustrate shifts in political contention and its effects on securitization in Yemen. It employs a geographic framework that interprets the influences of historical and geopolitical events on current political issues. It also critiques hegemonic discourse that underlies strategic and security reports. Methodologically, this thesis draws upon individual event data to illustrate the changes in type, scope, distribution, and severity of conflict in Yemen from 2000-2010. The conclusions assert that although terrorism was the main Yemeni issue of concern for the international community during those years, its impact on the Yemeni population was overshadowed by a growing opposition to the Saleh regime and by increasing regional conflicts that culminated in the Yemeni Spring of 2011. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank you to my committee members for their insight, expertise, and recommendations; to Johno, John Willis, and Dad for their meticulous edits; and to Nancy Thorwardson for her patient work in generating the maps in this thesis. Thanks to Andrew Linke for introducing me to coding techniques. Thank you to my family for allowing me the space and peace of mind so that I could complete what I started, to Bill Strong for his optimism, to the Underscore Orkestra for reminding me that life is waiting; and to Kevin, who was always there on the other end of the line. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................... vii Chapter One: Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 I. Research Focus ................................................................................................................................ 2 II. Research Outline ............................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter Two: Literature Review ............................................................................................................... 6 I. Demographics, Political History, and Policy Spaces.................................................................. 6 II. Identity and Perceptual Spaces ................................................................................................... 22 Chapter Three: Points of Contention .................................................................................................... 28 I. Perceptual Spaces of Security, Insecurity, and Geopolitics .................................................... 28 II. Activity Spaces of Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization ...................................... 38 Chapter Four: Methods ............................................................................................................................ 56 I. Previous Media Studies ................................................................................................................ 56 II. Working with Event Data ............................................................................................................ 57 III. Working with Geospatial Data ................................................................................................... 68 Chapter Five: Data, Analysis and Results .............................................................................................. 69 Chapter Six: Conclusions and Looking Forward ............................................................................... 107 I. Impacts of the Yemen Spring ................................................................................................... 107 II. The Future of Terrorism in Yemen ......................................................................................... 110 III. Concluding Remarks .................................................................................................................. 113 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 116 v LIST OF FIGURES Maps and Graphs: Figure 2.1: Map of Yemen (Nations Online 2012) Figure 3.1: Government Response to Challenges (Tilly 1978, 112) Figure 4.1: Freedom of the press rankings Figure 4.2: Number of events coded compared to the number of articles consulted Figure 5.1: Events and casualties by year Figure 5.2: All events showing moving three-point average Figure 5.3: All events with overall trend line Figures 5.4-5.5: Locations of events by initiating group, 2000-2010 Figures 5.6-5.7: Locations of events by target group, 2000-2010 Figure 5.8: Locations of events by event type, 2000-2010 Figure 5.9: Protests, 2000-2010 Figure 5.10: Protest frequency, violence and casualties Figure 5.11: Percentage of types of protests per year Figure 5.12: Percentages of protests in each year about major foreign issues, by theme Figures 5.13-5.18: Graduated circle maps of violent event counts by location each year, 2000-2005 Figures 5.19-5.23: Graduated circle maps of violent event counts by location each year, 2006-2010 Figure 5.24: Casualties in Major Categories of Contention Figure 5.25: Red Sea migrations and casualties Figure 5.26: Casualties in Major Categories, minus Huthi Conflict and Red Sea Migrations Figure 5.27: Number of Islamist- related events Figure 5.28: Yearly totals of casualties of specific groups related to violent Islamist activity Figure 5.29: Casualties related to violent Islamist activity by victim group Tables: Table 2.1: Political Parties of Yemen Table 4.1: Event type categories used in this thesis compared to those used by ACLED Table 4.2: List of principle perpetrators of political violence Table 4.3: Violators of Yemeni press freedoms in 2007 Table 5.1: Major events timeline vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset AQAP Al-Qa’eda in the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen-based merger of al-Qa’eda) GPC General People’s Congress, the dominant political party and that of President Ali Abdullah Saleh GWOT The Global War on Terrorism (informally, the WOT) IMF International Monetary Fund PDRY The People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen, 1970-1990 UNDP United Nations Development Program UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees USAID United States Agency for International Development YAR Yemeni Arab Republic (North Yemen, 1961-1990) YSF Yemeni Security Forces (including the police and military) YSP Yemeni Socialist Party, the dominant political party in South Yemen and the dominant proponent of the Southern Movement vii Chapter One: Introduction The diversity and challenges within the Yemeni state are often poorly represented. Terrorism emanating from within its borders and the 2011 political uprisings overshadow transformations of the Yemeni state in the previous decade that led to its current instability. The Yemeni state faces many contradictory pressures: it is a member of the Arab League but not of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); it is a U.S. ally in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) but this alliance has strained relations with other states in the region; and despite maintaining the highest poverty rates in the Middle East, large numbers of impoverished migrants from East Africa arrive on its shores. These issues exert pressure on a booming population, dwindling oil and water resources, and a government with limited reach and support. Regardless of the state’s perpetual inability to provide for its citizens and numerous measurements that have led to its categorization as a failed state (Foreign Policy 2011), the topic of terrorism within its borders has eclipsed its internal challenges in international media from 2000 until the Yemeni Spring political upheaval in 2011. The goal of this thesis is to identify ways in which notions of security have changed in a decade of Yemeni affairs from 2000-2010, from the onset of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) to the Yemeni Spring. I focus on ways that political contention has shaped Yemeni society and governance, as well as on the effects discursive hegemony behind American-led counterterrorism efforts. I use the term