Sundeep Waslekar Ilmas Futehally PREFACE

his book in its totality poses a big question that connects all the individual questions in Tit. How is our world going to be governed in the twenty first century, when momentous technological, ecological, economic, political, social, cultural and philosophical changes are taking place?

It might be argued that change in the only constant. The world has coped with changes in the past. It will do so in the future. Several wise men and women, from Malthus to the Club of Rome, have warned us of declining resources. Several futurologists from Toffler to Kruzweil have alerted us to technological, social and cultural shifts. Several political theorists, from Hegel to Huntington, have declared that the old order was over. And yet the world has carried on, with an imperfect in the last century, a Concert of Power in the century before, and without any mechanism of earlier. Why should we be particularly concerned about the changes that will take place in this century?

This book reminds us that what we have assumed for millennia will not necessarily hold together much longer. The basic laws of physics that explain our understanding of the universe, the terms of relationship between man and nature, well established rules of biological evolution, the principles determining the working of institutions of society, and many other assumptions about life and humanity are being questioned. The present system of global governance is completely inadequate to address these big questions. G-20, UN Security Council, World Bank, IMF, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and other institutions react to crisis in a fragmented way. There is nothing in the world that can anticipate and respond to revolutionary opportunities and catastrophic risks in a holistic manner. In the absence of such a mechanism, we cannot reach consensus on a vast range of issues from trade to climate change and from democracy to cyber security. We urgently need a new architecture of global governance.

The book presents selected essays from our writings on the website of Strategic Foresight Group. In our reflections, as well as in our work around the world, we have realised that challenges to human survival and prosperity are much more interconnected than we tend to acknowledge. So far our knowledge of universe has proved ours to be the only inhabited planet. It has been I given to us by previous generations and it is our responsibility to preserve it for our future generations. We have an obligation to manage it in a way that we are conscious of our debt to the unborn and grateful to the forces of universe for the unique endowment of intelligent life that we have. Such an obligation compels us to match our intelligence with wisdom, our spirit of endeavour with compassion, and our ambition with sustainability. We hope that an open debate on the big questions of our time will provide big and bold answers.

Sundeep Waslekar , May 2011 Ilmas Futehally

II CONTENTS

Preface Question 7 I Will the Winds of War Blow from the Arctic? Question 1 How Little Do We Know? 16 1 Question 8 Will Energy and Environmental Question 2 Industries Build World Peace? Can We Challenge Our Ideas? 3 18 Question 9 Question 3 The Geopolitics of Food The Future of Stupidity 5 21 Question 10 Question 4 The Great Rift Valley Which Idea Will Dominate the 21st Century? 23 8 Question 11 Question 5 Water and Westphalia in the Can We Really Live Beyond 21st Century Our Means? 25 11 Question 12 Question 6 Nature: The Final Frontier of Ecosystem Economics Politics 14 28 CONTENTS 40 43 48 36 45 38 33 31 The NextStageinOurEvolution Question 18 Beyond Biology Question 17 The FutureofProperty Question 16 Changing Choices Question 15 Shameless? Are WeCruel,StupidorJust Question 14 Limits toGlobalization Question 13 Catastrophic Risks Revolutionary Opportunities, Question 20 World In thePostNaturalEvolution Question 19 64 54 67 70 58 61 51 In 50Years Question 27 One World,Dream Question 26 2500? Will HumanSpeciesSurviveBy Question 25 Ferguson’s Fears Question 24 Community From NationStatetoGlobal Question 23 Exorcising theGhostofXunzi Question 22 Possible? Is theTheoryofEverything Question 21