COMPUTER SCIENTIST and now you can either anticipate in the resolution of all human cannot see into the future to predict prediction that individual human and gaseous states of matter: the world (initially under the direction of science-fi ction writer Vernor or sco at many di erent kinds problems, including illness and anything. “Machine intelligence” brains (and most probably their state becomes funda mentally di erent but humans) design the next generation of Vinge sketched out a seminal of singularities. Perhaps the limited life span. The “event represents the prediction that of ) will be replicable in in ways that may not be immediately machines, eventually supe rintelligent Who’s Who In modern singularity hypothesis most inclusive variant is the one horizon” idea corresponds most computers will achieve human- level computerized form, leading to (among perceptible to individuals immersed levels will be reached. The e ect is 15 years ago in his essay “The we label “technotopia,” the closely to Vinge’s original: a con- intelligence and either consciousness other things) virtual immortality. Kevin in it at the time. The “intelligence similar to the accelerating rate of Coming Technological Singularity.” scenario in which computers fl uence of technological changes, or something indistinguishable from it. Kelly’s “phase change” hypothesis explosion” hypothesis, initially technological change anticipated by The Singularity Since then lots of other people reach and exceed human levels of most likely including machine “Uploading,” which is also part of likens the singularity to the changes developed by Turing associate I.J. techno topians, but the path for getting have taken up the cause, so intelligence, essentially resulting intelligence, beyond which we the techno topian vision, refers to the between the solid and liquid or liquid Goode, postulates that as machines there is di erent. —Paul Wallich

WHO WHY WE SHOULD KIND OF BASIC ARGUMENT WHAT THEY SAY YOU MIGHT ALSO WHO WHY WE SHOULD KIND OF BASIC ARGUMENT WHAT THEY SAY YOU MIGHT ALSO LISTEN SINGULARITY WANT TO KNOW LISTEN SINGULARITY WANT TO KNOW Created several Technotopia The basic paradigm of Moore’s Law— “ I regard the freeing of the human mind Plans to release a movie Built the first neural Machine Our increasing knowledge of the brain “ I asked the audience how many people Thinks that belief in enormously successful —accelerating exponentially increasing improvement— from its severe physical limitations of later this year based on Marvin network simulator intelligence/ and increasing computing power will wanted to live for 200 years, and no one a singularity could Raymond inventions, including change will not only hold true indefi nitely for logic scope and duration as the necessary his book The Singularity Minsky in 1951. Received the uploading eventually intersect. raised their hand.” inspire people in the Kurzweil ones for pattern, circuits but will also apply to countless next step in evolution.” Is Near. To maximize his Professor of Turing Award in 1969. Currently, however, way that World War II character, and speech other technologies. It will lead to a chances of living until media arts and Developed a theory of the resources being —“It’s 2001: Where Is HAL?” inspired his generation. Entrepreneur, recognition; electronic singularity that will enable us to upload —“The Law of Accelerating his consciousness sciences and of mind involving small devoted to such Information Week podcast, 1 March 2007 inventor, author musical instruments; and our consciousness into machines and, in Returns” (http://www. can be downloaded, electrical subunits of expertise. work are negligible (http://www.informationweek.com; of popular books medical education. e ect, live indefi nitely. This singularity will kurzweilai.net/articles/ he reportedly takes engineering and compared with search on “minsky podcast”) on the singularity occur in about 15 years. art0134.html?printable=1) upward of 200 computer science, MIT the amount of vitamin pills a day. work to be done. Wrote Mind Children and Machine The processes of the brain that give “ The 1500-cubic-centimeter Now works full-time at Has written many Machine Human-level AI may be inevitable, “ The best reason for believing that robots Leading other books on artifi cial intelligence rise to consciousness arise inevitably human brain is about 100 000 times a small machine-vision Daniel books about the nature intelligence but don’t expect it anytime soon. “I might someday become conscious is member Hans intelligence and robotics. and uniquely from chains of physical as large as the retina, suggesting that start-up. Dennett of consciousness and don’t deny the possibility a priori; I just that we human beings are conscious, of the Moravec events and in accordance with matching overall human behavior Codirector of intelligence, including think it is vanishingly unlikely in the and we are a sort of robot ourselves.” Brights, Adjunct physical principles. They are therefore will take about 100 million MIPS of the Center Brainstorms: Philosophical foreseeable future.” (From Dennett’s book Cognition, a group professor, reproducible with a sufficiently computer power.” for Cognitive Essays on Mind and Computation, and Consciousness, 1994) dedicated to promoting Studies and Psychology (1978), The “the civic understanding Carnegie- powerful computer. —“When Will Computer Hardware professor of (1989), and acknowledgment Mellon Robotics Match the Human Brain?” Journal of philosophy, of the naturalistic Institute Evolution and Technology, 1998 (http:// Tufts University (1991), and Brainchildren— worldview, which is free www.jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm) Essays on Designing Minds of supernatural and Cofounded World Technotopia Assuming that we don’t render ourselves “ I would…assign less than a 50% Had a short career as (1998). mystical elements.” Transhumanist extinct, technological progress should probability to superintelligence being a stand-up comic. Has built many robots Technotopia Any extrapolation of technological trends, “ I am a machine. Was featured in the Nick Association; writes lead to superintelligence and indefi nitely developed by 2033.” that emulate the behavior particularly exponential ones, decades So are you.” 1997 movie Fast, Cheap, Bostrom extensively on machine extended life spans; once the singularity Rodney of simple animals. One into the future isn’t likely to be accurate. (p. 71 in this issue) and Out of Control. intelligence, life extension, comes near, we will all be kicking ourselves —“How Long Before Superintelligence?” crucial aspect of his Director, Future of Brooks and philosophical for not having brought it about sooner. (http://www.nickbostrom.com/ work is demonstrating Humanity Institute, issues surrounding the superintelligence.html) Professor of how little cognition, Oxford University singularity. robotics, MIT understanding, or memory is required for apparently Wrote the critically Event horizon— In a seminal 1993 essay, he wrote of “ In my 1993 essay, ‘The Coming A chapter of his recent complex behaviors. Vernor acclaimed novels A Fire fundamentally the period following the development Technological Singularity,’ I said I’d novel, Rainbows End, Coined the term virtual Machine There’s no real evidence that computer “ If computers are to become smart Wrote an entertaining Vinge Upon the Deep (Hugo unpredictable of machine intelligence: “From the be surprised if the singularity had not grew out of a story reality; was CEO of VPL intelligence representation of a brain will actually enough to design their own successors, 1995 essay in the Journal Award, 1993) and A human point of view this change will happened by 2030. I’ll stand by that he published in the Jaron Lanier Research, a pioneering produce a mind. Furthermore, true AI initiating a process that will lead to God- of Consciousness Studies Science-fi ction Deepness in the Sky be a throwing away of all the previous claim.” (p. 77 in this issue) July 2004 issue of Interdisciplinary virtual-reality start-up. can’t arise from current patterns of like omniscience after a number of ever titled “You Can’t Argue author; professor (1993); tackled issues rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an IEEE Spectrum. scholar-in- software development because those swifter passages from one generation With a Zombie.” It of computer that included human exponential runaway beyond any hope of residence at patterns are fatally flawed. Meanwhile, of computers to the next, someone is zinged , science at San confrontation with control. Developments that before were the Center for accelerating technological change going to have to write the software that Daniel Dennett’s critics, Diego State superintelligent thought might only happen in ‘a million Entrepreneurship could still make the world as we know it gets the process going, and humans have Dartmouth students, University for beings. years’ (if ever) will likely happen in the & Technology, nearly unrecognizable. given absolutely no evidence of being and philosopher David 28 years (retired) next century.” University of able to write such software.” Chalmers, among others. California, Sample line: “Arrogance Has developed a theory Intelligence Each generation of intelligent human- “ Deep Blue’s engineers Working on the Berkeley —“One-Half of a Manifesto,” Wired, is always a bad strategy for building “friendly” explosion machine collaborations uses its might say, ‘We have development of December 2000 (http://www.wired.com/ in science. In philosophy artificial intelligences increased intelligence to design the next no idea what chess machine wired/archive/8.12/lanier.html) I suppose it’s fi ne.” Eliezer whose goals will generation. The more intelligence, the moves the machine metaethics so that Invented genetic Machine In order to combine building blocks and Uncritical believers in the singularity Believes that the more Yudkowsky not change as they faster the cycle goes, until intelligences will make, but we superintelligences John programming, one of intelligence selectively “breed” them to form ever “ think evolution is like monkeys at people know about the Research fellow, themselves evolve. appear with capacities far beyond know they’ll be great can develop moral Holland the key technologies the more intelligent programs, you have to the typewriter, and if you just type technologies that will Singularity Institute those of unaided humans. Eventually, moves.’ ” (Interview reasoning beyond the Professor of singularitarians have have the building blocks fast enough you’ll get somewhere.” supposedly bring about for Artifi cial essentially all the work will be done on with author) current level while still computer science claimed will lead to in the fi rst place. (Interview with author) the singularity, the Intelligence the machine side. retaining predictable and engineering superintelligent machines. more aware they will characteristics. and professor of be of the limitations of psychology, those technologies. University of Studies the neural basis of Machine To create thinking machines, we have to “ Consciousness does not seem to require Runs up a 1700-meter- Michigan consciousness. intelligence understand what it is—both biologically many of the things we associate most high mountain “every Christof Has written many His “Chinese Room” thought “I believe that there is no objection Was a member of and philosophically—that makes humans deeply with being human.” couple of weeks.” — Koch books on the brain and experiment explains why a bare in principle to constructing an the UC Berkeley Free conscious beings. (p. 56 in this issue) Professor of consciousness, including CPU cannot understand the intent of artifi cial hardware system that Speech movement in cognitive and John Minds, Brains, and Science the program it executes. Only organisms would duplicate the powers of the early 1960s. behavioral Searle (1985) and The Mystery of embodied in the real world, with real the brain to cause consciousness biology, Caltech Professor of Consciousness (1997). experiences to draw on, can become using some chemistry di erent philosophy, truly conscious and intelligent. All else from neurons. But to produce University of is merely symbol manipulation. consciousness any such system would have to duplicate the actual causal Wrote Out of Control: The Phase change Singularities are pervasive changes in “ The word technology was only coined Popularized the California, powers of the brain.” New Biology of Machines, the state of the world that are often in 1829, but they’d been doing it for “ Maes-Garreau point,” Berkeley Social Systems, and the recognizable only in retrospect. As a centuries by then.” (Interview with which observes that —“I Married a Computer,” review of Kevin Economic World (1995) result, the singularity is always near, but author) most predictions of Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kelly and other works on whether the current wave of technological positive technological The New York Review of Books, Senior maverick, technology and society. progress constitutes a singularity is revolution fall just 8 April 1999 Wired magazine impossible to tell. within the life span of Expounded on Albert — Consciousness cannot be duplicated “ I’m not saying that consciousness is Invented Penrose tiles, the person doing the Einstein’s general theory in computational machines, because beyond physics…although I’m saying that a shape capable of predicting. Roger of relativity. Wrote The it depends on “noncomputational it’s beyond the physics we know now.” covering an infi nite Cofounded Sun Event horizon As computer science, biotech, and “The future doesn’t need us.” Has called for voluntary Penrose Nature of Space and Time physical processes.” Does not know (From Penrose’s book The Third Culture: plane in a nonperiodic Microsystems. nanotechnology advance, it will become renunciation or at least Physicist and with Stephen Hawking what these might be but suggests it Beyond the Scientifi c Revolution, 1995) fashion. easier and easier for small groups or even —“Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us,” a delay of research into professor of and The Emperor’s New emerges from “large-scale” quantum- Bill Joy individuals to create incredibly destructive Wired, April 2000 (http://www.wired. fi elds that o er easy mathematics, Mind, about computation mechanical phenomena in microtubules Venture things. Unless measures are taken, com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html) extinction of humanity. Oxford and consciousness. in the brain’s neurons. capitalist eventually this will happen. University

Singularity color code: ■ True believer: thinks it will happen within 30 years ■ Yes, but... ■ Maybe someday ■ No way