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Norwegian Arctic Tundra: a Panel-Based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition

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Norwegian Arctic Tundra: a Panel-Based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition 153 RAPPORTSERIE Norwegian Arctic Tundra: a Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition Pedersen ÅØ, Jepsen JU, Paulsen IMG, Fuglei E, Mosbacher JB, Ravolainen V, Yoccoz NG, Øseth E, Böhner H, Bråthen KA, Ehrich D, Henden J-A, Isaksen K, Jakobsson S, Madsen J, Soininen E, Stien A, Tombre I, Tveraa T, Tveito OE, Vindstad OPL, Ims RA Rapportserie/Report Series 153 Pedersen ÅØ, Jepsen JU, Paulsen IMG, Fuglei E, Mosbacher JB, Ravolainen V, Yoccoz NG, Øseth E, Böhner H, Bråthen KA, Ehrich D, Henden J-A, Isaksen K, Jakobsson S, Madsen J, Soininen E, Stien A, Tombre I, Tveraa T, Tveito OE, Vindstad OPL, Ims RA Norwegian Arctic Tundra: a Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition Norsk Polarinstitutt er Norges hovedinstitusjon for kartlegging, miljøovervåking og forvaltningsrettet forskning i Arktis og Antarktis. Instituttet er faglig og strategisk rådgiver i miljøvernsaker i disse områdene og har forvaltningsmyndighet i norsk del av Antarktis. Instituttet er et direktorat under Klima- og miljødepartementet. The Norwegian Polar Institute is Norway’s central governmental institution for management-related research, mapping and environmental monitoring in the Arctic and the Antarctic. The Institute advises Norwegian authorities on matters concerning polar environmental management and is the official environmental management body for Norway’s Antarctic territorial claims. The Institute is a Directorate within the Ministry of Climate and Environment. Contact Åshild Ønvik Pedersen ([email protected]) Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway Reference Pedersen ÅØ 1, Jepsen JU 2, Paulsen IMG 1, Fuglei E 1, Mosbacher JB 1, Ravolainen V 1, Yoccoz NG 3, Øseth E 1, Böhner H 3, Bråthen KA 3, Ehrich D 3, Henden J-A 3, Isaksen K 4, Jakobsson S 5, Madsen J 6, Soininen E 3, Stien A 3, Tombre I 5, Tveraa T 2, Tveito OE 4, Vindstad OPL 2, Ims RA 3. 2021. Norwegian Arctic Tundra: a Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition. Report Series 153. Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø 1 Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway 2 Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Fram Centre, 9296 Tromsø, Norway 3 UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Hansine Hansens veg 18, 9019 Tromsø, Norway 4 Norwegian Meterological Institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, 0371 Oslo, Norway 5 Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Høgskoleringen 9, 7034 Trondheim, Norway 6 Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Grenåvej 14, 8410 Rønde, Denmark © Norwegian Polar Institute 2021 Fram Centre, P.O. Box 6606, Langnes, 9296 Tromsø, Norway www.npolar.no, [email protected] Front cover photos: G. Vie/UiT (main photo), N. Lecomte/Université de Moncton (lower left), K.-O. Jacobsen©/NINA (lower middle), J. Dybdahl/NIBIO (lower right). Back cover photos: J. Iglhaut/NINA (lower left), E. Soininen/UiT (lower middle), N. Lecomte/Université de Moncton (lower right) Print: Bodoni AS ISBN: 978-82-7666-439-3 (printed edition) ISBN: 978-82-7666-440-9 (digital edition) ISSN: 1893-5664 (digital edition) ISSN: 0803-0421 (printed edition) Preface On behalf of the Ministry of Climate and Environment, the Norwegian Environment Agency is responsible for the development of the System for assessment of ecological condition of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This report is the product of a project funded by the Norwegian Environment Agency and includes the first assessment of the ecological condition of Norwegian Arctic tundra in two sub- ecosystems — High Arctic tundra in Svalbard and Low Arctic tundra on the Norwegian mainland. The Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition (PAEC) is one of two methods developed for use in the System for assessment of ecological condition. PAEC forms the basis for a consolidated, evidence- based assessment of the ecological condition of an ecosystem. In 2019, scientists involved in this assessment described the development and tested a pilot version of the PAEC protocol for Arctic tundra and the Arctic part of the Barents Sea (Jepsen et al. 2019). Based on lessons learned from these two ecosystems, the PAEC protocol has been improved and translated into English (Jepsen et al. 2020). The Norwegian Environment Agency commissioned in 2020 the Norwegian Polar Institute to lead the work with the first operational PAEC of Norwegian Arctic tundra together with other institutions involved in the Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra (COAT), which we report on here. The PAEC of Arctic tundra involved five central institutions in COAT — Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), UiT The Arctic University of Norway (UiT), and Aarhus University (AU). The work was conducted by a panel consisting of 21 participants under the leadership of Åshild Ønvik Pedersen (NPI), in close cooperation with Jane U. Jepsen (NINA), Rolf Anker Ims and Nigel Yoccoz (UiT), Eva Fuglei (NPI), Jesper Mosbacher (NPI), and Virve Ravolainen (NPI). Ellen Øseth (NPI) had an administrative role in the scientific panel and acted as a secretary during the assessment phase, while Ingrid M. Paulsen (NPI) was engaged full-time to participate and assist in the process. The work was conducted from 1st June 2020 to 26th March 2021. The PAEC process consists of four phases: 1) The scoping phase where new and existing indicators are evaluated for inclusion; 2) the analysis phase where indicator analyses are updated from the pilot assessment (Jepsen et al. 2019) and new indicators are developed; 3) the assessment phase where the scientific panel meets and discusses the significance and validity of indicator analyses, and; 4) the report phase where the scientific background material and conclusions from the scientific panel is written up in a report according to the PAEC protocol. Covid-19 restrictions influenced the entire project period, and due to these restrictions, there were no physical meetings involving the entire panel. Instead, a number of, mostly digital, meetings involving smaller sections of the panel were held. The entire panel met digitally for the formal assessment meeting (Phase 3) over two days 16th–17th November 2020. We thank the Norwegian Environment Agency for valuable contributions to the process and quality assurance of the report. Else Marie Løbersli and Eirin Bjørkvoll were contacts for the project. We further thank Gunn Sissel Jaklin (NPI) for proof-reading the report, Ivar Stokkeland (NPI) for assistance with the reference lists, Leif Einar Støvern (UiT) for assistance with photos and Stein Tore Pedersen (NPI) for assisting the project leader. Tromsø/Longyearbyen 26th March 2021 Åshild Ønvik Pedersen Project leader 3 4 Table of contents Preface ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 Summary ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������6 Sammendrag......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Introduction �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 Definitions of terms ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 28 1. Composition of the scientific panel ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 30 2. Definition of the reference condition ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 3. Ecosystem delineation, data sources, and choice and utility of indicators ........................................... 36 3.1 Delineation of the ecosystem ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 36 3.2 General considerations regarding data sources ................................................................................... 39 3.3 Choice and utility of indicators ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 4. Estimation of indicators and rates of change ................................................................................................... 48 4.1 Abiotic indicators (climate) — estimation of rates of change after the reference period 1961–1990 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 4.2 Other indicators — estimation of rates of change in time-series ................................................... 49 5. Assessment of deviations from the reference condition .............................................................................. 58 5.1 Scientific evidence base for the phenomena ......................................................................................... 63 5.1.1 Scientific evidence base — Low Arctic tundra............................................................................. 63 5.1.2 Scientific evidence base — High Arctic tundra .......................................................................... 92 6. Ecosystem
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