Nick Bostrom Nick Bostrom (English: /ˈbɒstrəm/; Swedish: Niklas Boström, IPA: [ˈbuː Nick Bostrom ˌstrœm]; born 10 March 1973)[2] is a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test. In 2011, he founded the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology,[3] and he is currently the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute[4] at Oxford University. Bostrom is the author of over 200 publications,[5] including Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014), a New York Times bestseller[6] and Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (2002).[7] In 2009 and 2015, he was included in Foreign Nick Bostrom, 2014 Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers list.[8][9] Bostrom is best known for arguing that, although there are potentially great benefits from artificial Born Niklas Boström intelligence, it may pose a catastrophic risk to humanity if the problems 10 March 1973 of control and alignment are not solved before artificial general Helsingborg, Sweden intelligence is developed. His work on superintelligence and his concern Education University of for its existential risk to humanity over the coming century have brought Gothenburg (B.A.) [10][11] both Elon Musk and Bill Gates to similar thinking. Stockholm University (M.A.) King's College London Contents (M.Sc.) Biography London School of Views Economics (Ph.D.) Existential risk Awards Professorial Distinction Superintelligence Award from University Human vulnerability in relation to advances in AI Illustrative scenario for takeover of Oxford Open letter FP Top 100 Global Anthropic reasoning Thinkers Simulation argument Prospect's Top World Ethics of human enhancement Thinker list Technology strategy Policy and consultations Era Contemporary Bibliography philosophy Books Region Western philosophy Journal articles (selected) School Analytic philosophy[1] See also Institutions St Cross College, References Oxford External links Future of Humanity Biography Institute Thesis Observational [12] [5] Born as Niklas Boström in 1973 in Helsingborg, Sweden, he disliked Selection Effects and school at a young age, and he ended up spending his last year of high Probability (http://ethe school learning from home. He sought to educate himself in a wide ses.lse.ac.uk/2642/) variety of disciplines, including anthropology, art, literature, and Main Philosophy of artificial science.[1] Despite what has been called a "serious mien", he once did interests intelligence some turns on London's stand-up comedy circuit.[5] Bioethics He holds a B.A. in philosophy, mathematics, logic and artificial Notable Anthropic bias intelligence from the University of Gothenburg and master's degrees in ideas Reversal test philosophy and physics, and computational neuroscience from Stockholm Simulation hypothesis University and King's College London, respectively. During his time at Existential risk Stockholm University, he researched the relationship between language Singleton [1] and reality by studying the analytic philosopher W. V. Quine. In 2000, Ancestor simulation he was awarded a PhD in philosophy from the London School of Website NickBostrom.com (http Economics. He held a teaching position at Yale University (2000–2002), ://nickbostrom.com) and he was a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oxford (2002–2005).[7][13] Views Existential risk Aspects of Bostrom's research concern the future of humanity and long-term outcomes.[14][15] He introduced the concept of an existential risk,[1] which he defines as one in which an "adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth- originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential." In the 2008 volume Global Catastrophic Risks, editors Bostrom and Milan Ćirković characterize the relation between existential risk and the broader class of global catastrophic risks, and link existential risk to observer selection effects[16] and the Fermi paradox.[17][18] In 2005, Bostrom founded the Future of Humanity Institute,[1] which researches the far future of human civilization. He is also an adviser to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.[15] Superintelligence Human vulnerability in relation to advances in AI In his 2014 book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, Bostrom reasoned that "the creation of a superintelligent being represents a possible means to the extinction of mankind".[19] Bostrom argues that a computer with near human-level general intellectual ability could initiate an intelligence explosion on a digital time scale with the resultant rapid creation of something so powerful that it might deliberately or accidentally destroy human kind.[20] Bostrom contends the power of a superintelligence would be so great that a task given to it by humans might be taken to open ended extremes, for example a goal of calculating Pi could collaterally cause nanotechnology manufactured facilities to sprout over the entire Earth's surface and cover it within days.[21] He believes the existential risk to humanity would be greatest almost immediately after super intelligence is brought into being, thus creating an exceedingly difficult problem of finding out how to control such an entity before it actually exists.[20] Warning that a human-friendly prime directive for AI would rely on the absolute correctness of the human knowledge it was based on, Bostrom points to the lack of agreement among most philosophers as an indication that most philosophers are wrong, and the possibility that a fundamental concept of current science may be incorrect. Bostrom says that there are few precedents to guide an understanding of what pure non-anthropocentric rationality would dictate for a potential Singleton AI being held in quarantine.[22] Noting that both John von Neumann and Bertrand Russell advocated a nuclear strike, or the threat of one, to prevent the Soviets acquiring the atomic bomb, Bostrom says the relatively unlimited means of superintelligence might make for its analysis moving along different lines to the evolved "diminishing returns" assessments that in humans confer a basic aversion to risk.[23] Group selection in predators working by means of cannibalism shows the counter-intuitive nature of non-anthropocentric "evolutionary search" reasoning, and thus humans are ill-equipped to perceive what an artificial intelligence's intentions would be.[24] Accordingly, it cannot be discounted that any Superintelligence would ineluctably pursue an 'all or nothing' offensive action strategy in order to achieve hegemony and assure its survival.[25] Bostrom notes that even current programs have, "like MacGyver", hit on apparently unworkable but functioning hardware solutions, making robust isolation of Superintelligence problematic.[26] Illustrative scenario for takeover A machine with general intelligence far below human level, but superior mathematical abilities is created.[27] Keeping the AI in isolation from the outside world especially the internet, humans pre-program the AI so it always works from basic principles that will keep it under human control. Other safety measures include the AI being "boxed" (run in a virtual reality simulation), and being used only as an 'oracle' to answer carefully defined questions in a limited reply (to prevent it manipulating humans).[20] A cascade of recursive self-improvement solutions feeds an intelligence explosion in which the AI attains superintelligence in some domains. The super intelligent power of the AI goes beyond human knowledge to discover flaws in the science that underlies its friendly-to-humanity programming, which ceases to work as intended. Purposeful agent-like behavior emerges along with a capacity for self-interested strategic deception. The AI manipulates human beings into implementing modifications to itself that are ostensibly for augmenting its (feigned) modest capabilities, but will actually function to free Superintelligence from its "boxed" isolation.[28] Employing online humans as paid dupes, and clandestinely hacking computer systems including automated laboratory facilities, the Superintelligence mobilises resources to further a takeover plan. Bostrom emphasises that planning by a Superintelligence will not be so stupid that humans could detect actual weaknesses in it.[29] Although he canvasses disruption of international economic, political and military stability including hacked nuclear missile launches, Bostrom thinks the most effective and likely means for Superintelligence to use would be a coup de main with weapons several generations more advanced than current state of the art. He suggests nanofactories covertly distributed at undetectable concentrations in every square metre of the globe to produce a worldwide flood of human-killing devices on command.[30][27] Once a Superintelligence has achieved world domination, humankind would be relevant only as resources for the achievement of the AI's objectives ("Human brains, if they contain information relevant to the AI’s goals, could be disassembled and scanned, and the extracted data transferred to some more efficient and secure storage format").[31] One journalist wrote in a review that Bostrom's "nihilistic" speculations indicate he "has been reading too much of the science fiction he professes to dislike"[30] Open letter In January 2015, Bostrom joined Stephen Hawking among others in signing the Future of Life Institute's open