The Opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, Geopolitical, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Impacts
Marine Policy xxx (xxxx) xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Marine Policy journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/marpol The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts Mia M. Bennett a,*, Scott R. Stephenson b, Kang Yang c,d,e, Michael T. Bravo f, Bert De Jonghe g a Department of Geography and School of Modern Languages & Cultures (China Studies Programme), Room 8.09, Jockey Club Tower, Centennial Campus, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong b RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA c School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China d Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210023, China e Collaborative Innovation Center for the South Sea Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China f Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK g Graduate School of Design, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA ABSTRACT With current scientifc models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate
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