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Planning Targets for Irrigation Development

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Planning Targets for Irrigation Development 4 Planning Targets for Irrigation Development C. G. Desai Although India possesses 4.9 percent of the total average annual runoff in the rivers of the world, the per capita water availability from surface as, well as groundwater sources is assessed at 3,200 cubic meters Jm3) per year, compared with the availability of more than 17,500 m3 in the Soviet Union, 6,500 m3 in Japan, and 6,200 m3 in the United States. The population that India had at the beginn­ ing of the twentieth century is likely to have increased 50 percent by the end of the century. This would further reduce the per capita availability of water. Surface water would constitute about 80 percent of this; the remainder would be from groundwater. ASSESSING THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES Planning water resources development in any country requires first and foremost a precise assessment of its availability. The need to assess both surface water and groundwater potential is particularly critical because the investment costs of irrigation projects using scarce water resources are accelerating. Any error in the assessment would cause avoidable waste in the construction of canal networks, block huge investments, and ultimately result in recurring financial losses. Five year plan investments of Rs 150 billion from 1951 to 1985 for major and medium irrigation schemes were seriously criticized by economists trying to evaluate perfor­ mance of this sector with the usual yardsticks of efficiency, economic return, or input-output ratio. Similarly, overestimating groundwater resources is likely to block institutional funds by encouraging high default rates on loans to farmers. The precise, systematic assessment of available surface water and groundwater resources is, therefore, considered essential for planning and developing Indian water resources. The first stage of systematic planning began in 1951 and has been periodically reviewed there­ after. In some important states like Uttar Pradesh, groundwater devel­ opment has reached the level targeted earlier as ultimate potential, but considerable potential remains for further groundwater develop­ ment. Revising earlier targets in this and similar cases is necessary before taking up further programs on a firm technical and financial footing. 28 A broad-based assessment of the potential of surface water resources was attempted prior to the era of planning in India. The methodology adopted by different agencies varied from empirical approach to statistical analysis, depending on the data available. During 1902/03 the First Irrigation Commission estimated 144.3 million hectare meters (million ha m), based on runoff coefficient. Dr. A. N. Khosla, an experienced engineer, evolved a formula correlating runoff as a function of rainfall and temperature using studies of yields and rainfall data for Sutlej, Mahanadi, and other Indian river systems. According to his 1940 assessment, the average annual flow of all the river systems of India was about 167.3 million ha m. Based on observed runoff data, Dr. K. L. Rao, an eminent engineer and ex-union minister for irrigation and power, estimated the potential to be 164.5 million ha m in 1975. The Central Water and Power Commission, an official technical body of the Ministry of Water Resources, worked out the surface water potential of different regions during 1954/56. This estimate was based on the statistical analysis of available flow data on rivers and suitable rainfall runoff relationships. According to their estimate, the annual flow of all the river systems in India was 188.1 million ha m, which was revised to 181.1 million ha m in 1987 by the Central Water Commission. The assessment figure of surface water potential that is used for present planning is 180 million ha m. Table 4.1 gives surface water potential, as indicated by average annual flow in the river systems, as 180 million ha m. This figure is assessed on the basis of India's annual precipitation, which is estimated to be 400 million ha m, including 392 million ha m from rainfall and 8 million from snowfall. The country's surface water potential of 180 million ha m takes into account immediate runoff within India, some basin runoff outside India, regeneration of effluent streams, and seepage and leakage from irrigation canals. Figure 4.1 presents a flow chart of India's water resources. A broad study of India's groundwater potential in 1972 estimated 60 million ha m from annual replenishable resources of groundwater. This was based on an assumed percentage of groundwater recharge from rainfall, supplemented by assumed levels of surface water inflows from storage works, canals, and other contributing factors. The available data could not precisely estimate recharge coefficients in hard rock areas, which constitute about 80 percent of the terrain. This estimate therefore was uncertain. Even in alluvial areas, there was scope for more precise estimating. However, this was considered to be the first broad-based assessment, which would be reviewed and revised in the future to match the demands of ground­ water development. Research schemes have been undertaken and encouraged to establish field values for groundwater recharge in different topographic and soil conditions. This research has provided some data at the micro-level to support macro-level planning. Since the above figures indicate the overall water resources po­ tential of the country, an exercise was carried out to assess the usable surface water resources, taking into account physiographic, sociopolitical, environmental, legal, constitutional, financial, and technological limitations at a particular time. The assessment of 29 30 Table 4.1—Average annual flow in Indian river systems, various years Average Period of Data Annual and Method of Usable Basin Flow Data Analysis Flow ;i00,000 ha m) (100,000 ha m) Indus (up to 73.305 Indus Commis­ 46.000 the border) sion, CWC Irrigat ion Commission Ganga 501.643 CWC 22-year data 250.000 (up to the (1960/61 to border) 1981/82) Brahmaputra 499.914 Irrigat ion 24.000 (up to the Commiss ion border) Barak and 90.800 others Godavari 118.982 K.G. 60-year data 76.300 Commiss ion (1901-61)Khosla formula and rainfal1-runoff relationship based on 20-year data Krishna 67.790 K.G. 78-year data, 58.000 Tribunal average probabi1ity of exceeding (1894/95 to 1971/72) Cauvery 20.695 CWC 38-year data, 19.000 frequency analysis method (1933/34 to 1970/71) Pennar 6.858 CWC Khosla formula 6.858 (Continued) 31 Table 4.l--Continued Average Period of Data Annual and Method of Usable Basin Flow Data Analysis Flow (100.000 ha m) (100.000 ha m) East flowing 16.948 Khosla formula 13.110 rivers cue between Krishna and Pennar and between Maha- nadi and Godavari East flowing 17.725 CWC Khosla formula 16.732 rivers between Pennar and Kanyakumari Mahanadi 66.879 cue 35-year 49.990 generated runoff series (1930/31 to 1964/65) Brahmani and 36.227 CWC Khosla formula 18.297 Baitarani Subarnarekha 10.756 CWC Rainfall runoff 6.813 relat ionship Sabarmati 2.883 CWC 15-year runoff 1.925 data (1950/51 to 1964/65) extended series of 35 years (1930/31 to 1964/65), statistical analysis Mahi 11.829 CWC Khosla formula 3.095 West flowing 15.098 CWC Khosla formula 14.980 rivers of Kutch Kathiawar inc luding Luni (Cont inued) 32 Table 4.l--Continued Average Period of Data Annual and Method of Usable Basin Flow Data Analysis Flow (100,000 ha m) (100,000 ha m) Narmada 42.966 CWC 10-to 15-year 34.500 runoff data and extended series (concurrent data 1950/51 to 1964/65) Tapi 16.967 CWC Series for 1930/31 14.500 to 1964/65 (con­ current data 1954/55 to 1962/63), extended series (1930/31 to 1959/60) West flowing 110.877 CWC Khosla formula 15.068 rivers from Tapi to Tadri West flowing 71.981 Kerala Inglis formula, 14.932 rivers from rainfall runoff Tadri to relationship Kanyakumari Total 1,801.123 (approximately 180 million ha m) 684.100 n.a. Not available. Abbreviation: CWC, Central Water Commission. actual use of surface water flow done by the Irrigation Commission in 1972, by Dr. K. L. Rao in 1975, by the Indian Council of Agricul­ tural Research in 1975/76, by the National Commission on Agriculture in 1976, and by the Irrigation Ministry through the Central Water Commission at different periods of time give figures that vary from 66.6 to 92 million ha m. A recent assessment made by the Central Water Commission in 1987 estimates usable surface water resources to be 68.4 million ha m. None of these assessments, however, include the contribution of water flows from snow, ice, and glaciers. Specific details about their contribution will be finalized after completion of an ongoing pilot study of these factors. Based on the above figures from various agencies, the present figure of usable surface water is considered to be 70 million ha m. 33 A scientific assessment of the groundwater potential of the country was not undertaken until a few years ago. Groundwater mapping and exploration were sporadic and limited to specific areas. The Geological Survey of India (GSI) was responsible for systemati­ cally investigating and mapping groundwater in the country as a whole. As a result of the increased emphasis on groundwater development in the past few years, extensive exploration work was done in the desert areas of Rajasthan, the foothills of the Himalay­ as, the coastal alluvial tracts of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, and the basins of Narmada, Tapi, and Purnea. The Central Groundwater Board roughly assessed the annual usable groundwater resources to be 42 million ha m per year.
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