46(8) 1611–1638, July 2009 Crime in a City in Transition: The Case of Tallinn, Estonia Vânia Ceccato [Paper first received, October 2006; in final form, June 2008] Abstract The objective of this article is to characterise the criminogenic conditions of an eastern European city experiencing the transition from a planned to a market-oriented economy. Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, has been chosen as the case study. The article fi rst describes the various levels of a set of expressive and acquisitive offences in Tallinn and then assesses whether patterns of crime in Tallinn are caused by underlying processes similar to the ones indicated in the Western literature of urban criminology. The study identifi es variables that most signifi cantly contribute to the variation of crime ratios using regression models, GIS and spatial statistical techniques. Findings suggest that, although there is no dramatic difference between the geography of crimes in Tallinn and those found in western European and North American cities, some of the explanatory variables function in ways which would not be predicted by Western literature. 1. Introduction a market economy has engendered criminal behaviour in a number of ways. Motivated Political and social transformations have had offenders may have a greater incentive to act a profound effect on cities experiencing the illegally because there may be a reduced risk transition from a planned to a market economy of detection and conviction during periods of (Åberg and Peterson, 1997; Kliimask, 1997; great social and political change. Moreover, a Sýkora, 1999; Sailer-Fliege, 1999; Kährik, growing economy with rising levels of con- 2002; Kulu, 2003; Ruoppila and Kährik, 2003; sumption provides more opportunities for Weclawowicz, 2005; Häussermann and crime (Iwaskiw, 1996; Ceccato and Haining, Kapphan, 2005; Tosics, 2005; Musil, 2005a, 2008). At the same time, evidence at a regional 2005b; Pichler-Milanovic´, 2005; Hamilton level shows that anomic feelings, produced et al., 2005, Rudolph and Brade, 2005; Nuissl by an increase in economic disparity, generate and Rink, 2005).1 The shift from a planned to more violence and disorder where population Vânia Ceccato is in the Department of Urban Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, Stockholm, 10044, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]. 0042-0980 Print/1360-063X Online © 2009 Urban Studies Journal Limited DOI: 10.1177/0042098009105501 11611-1638611-1638 UUSJ_105501.inddSJ_105501.indd 11611611 55/15/2009/15/2009 66:00:27:00:27 PPMM PProcessrocess BBlacklack 1612 VÂNIA CECCATO decay and signs of deprivation are evident correlated with property crimes (for example, (Ceccato, 2008). There is a need to obtain Holloway et al., 2004). Although there is no empirical evidence about the composition clear-cut divide between what is termed an and geography of crime in urban areas and expressive or an acquisitive crime, the selec- how this relates to such global and state- tion of offences in this study was based on level transformations and also to the cities’ existent crime codes and defi nitions as well intraurban characteristics (Bottoms and as descriptions of the crime event provided Wiles, 2002). This is particularly important by the police authorities. for transitional cities because of the unkown Secondly, the study assesses whether pat- effect of recent rapid transformations on terns of crime in a city in transition follow urban crime. The current literature on crime similar processes to the ones indicated in patterns in former socialist cities suggests the Western literature of urban criminology. that structural and social processes similar The study identifies variables that most to those in western cities have had an impact signifi cantly contribute to the variation of on where crime takes place (Bartnicki, 1986; crime ratios using regression models, GIS Dangshat, 1987; Smith, 1989). However, and spatial statistical techniques. The se- such evidence is out of date and not detailed lection of the tested variables was based on enough to enable comparisions with pat- two major complementary theoretical ap- terns found in western European cities. The proaches in the urban criminology of western objective of this article is to make a contribu- European and North American cities: social tion to this knowledge base by characteris- disorganisation theory (for example, Shaw ing the criminogenic conditions for a set of and McKay, 1942; Kornhauser, 1978; Bursik expressive and acquisitive crimes committed and Grasmick, 1993) and routine activity in a city in transition using Tallinn, Estonia, theory (for example, Cohen and Felson, 1979; as an example. Sherman et al., 1989; Osgood et al., 1996). This article makes two contributions to the Whilst social disorganisation theory is based study of spatial variations in urban crime. on the idea that structural disadvantage breeds First, it characterises the geography of ex- crime (studies based on social disorganisa- pressive and acquisitive crimes in Tallinn. tion theory often use area-based indicators Using maps of standardised offence ratios, of poverty, ethnicity and residential stability it identifi es areas that run a relatively high and typically deal with expressive crimes), risk for a certain offence, taking into account the routine activity approach deals with the the distribution of that offence in Tallinn as dynamics of the crime event. Crimes, accord- a whole and in each zone. Expressive crimes ing to routine activity theory, depend on the can be defi ned as criminal acts that serve to convergence in space and time of motivated vent rage, anger or frustration, such as assault, offenders, suitable targets and an absence of homicide or vandalism; acquisitive crimes responsible guardians. The routine activity refer to offences where the perpetrator derives approach has been particularly useful to ex- material gain. In this paper, acquisitive crime plain the geography of acquisitive crimes. refers to thefts, robbery and drug-related Tallinn has been chosen as a case study for crimes. Drug offences, which have drastically several reasons. Tallinn is a typical city in tran- increased in the Baltic countries as a result of sition. It has experienced the shift from a both an actual increase as well as the capacity planned to a market economy, but also the im- of the police to tackle drug crime (European pact of Estonia’s entry in the European Com- Council, 2003; Ahven, 2004), can be regarded munity in 2004. The effects of the transition as acquisitive offences since they are highly are said to have created new and increasing 11611-1638611-1638 UUSJ_105501.inddSJ_105501.indd 11612612 55/15/2009/15/2009 66:00:29:00:29 PPMM PProcessrocess BBlacklack CRIME IN TALLINN 1613 inequalities (Kährik, 2006), making more Victim Survey (del Frate and van Kesteren, visible the previously latent socio-spatial 2004). Since empirical evidence in the fi eld of segregation in Tallinn, which is common in urban crime patterns is largely based on case many other post-socialist cities (Kliimask, studies from western Europe or the US (for 1997; Sýkora, 1999; Sailer-Fliege, 1999; Kulu, example, Shaw and McKay, 1942; Reppetto, 2003; Weclawowicz, 2005; Häussermann 1974; Sherman et al., 1989; Wikström, 1991; and Kapphan, 2005; Tosics, 2005; Musil, Ceccato et al., 2002; Coupe and Blake, 2006), 2005a, 2005b; Pichler-Milanovic´, 2005; Åberg, Tallinn constitutes an interesting case study 2005; for review, see Åberg and Peterson, to be investigated from eastern Europe. 1997; Hamilton et al., 2005). So far, very little Specifi cally, Tallinn has historically had an evidence exists on how Tallinn’s past and its important role among capital cities of the current structure may generate criminogenic former communist bloc (Kährik, 2006), and conditions that may lead to crime. By using also among centres of the urban hierarchy of the existent literature on crime patterns from Nordic countries and eastern Europe. Tallinn North American and western European cities acts as one of the main transport gateways as a basis, this analysis endeavours to discover between continental Europe and northern support for the generalisibility of spatial Eurasia (Hanell and Neubauer, 2005, p. 15; theories of crime from the western to eastern Hamilton et al., 2005), which has had an European cities. important effect on the region’s economy, Homicide rates did not surpass 5 per 100 000 including on illegal activities driven by or- inhabitants in most large western European ganised crime (for example, Junninen and cities between 2001 and 2005 (Table 1). In Aromaa, 2000). contrast, the rate was above 10 per 100 000 This particular study has been made pos- in 2005 in Tallinn.2 Tallinn also has higher sible by better-quality crime data becoming prevalence rates for acquisitive crimes, such available for Estonia at the intraurban level. as burglary, than the average for capital cities This study was based on a detailed and ex- in western Europe (4.8 versus 2.9 per cent) tensive geo-referenced crime database for according to the 2000 International Crime Tallinn which was only made accessible in Table 1. Crime rates for selected cities (offences recorded by the police per 100 000 inhabitants) Homicide Assault Robbery Theft Vandalism Drugs Tallinn city 12 268 240 4410 226a 155 Vilnius city 9 368 174 1871 1991 — Stockholm city 4 1300b 269 3928 2808 1126 London 2 663b 460 3815 1271 225 Berlin 4 347 233 3238 1682 369 New York 7 361 300 1542 — — Detroit 39 1264 627 2733 — — a Underreported, often classifi ed as misdemeanours. b Includes simple and aggravated assault. Sources: Tallinn: Estonian Police Board, 2005; Vilnius: Ministry of Interior, 2001; Stockholm: The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, 2005; London: London Metropolitan Police, 2001; Germany: Federal Criminal Police Offi ce, 2005; New York: Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2003; Detroit: US FBI, Crime in the US, in: Statistical Abstract of the United States (2003). 11611-1638611-1638 UUSJ_105501.inddSJ_105501.indd 11613613 55/15/2009/15/2009 66:00:29:00:29 PPMM PProcessrocess BBlacklack 1614 VÂNIA CECCATO 2002 by the police authorities.