POLITICAL STABILITY AND STRUCTURAL DEPENDENCY IN ARGENTINA AND CANADA: A COMPARATIVE STUDY IN WELFARE STATE DEVELOPMENT, 1930-1970 David Wells B.A., Simon Fraser University, 1992 THESIS SUBMIïTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASER OF ARTS in the Depamnent of Political Science C9 David Wells 1997 SIMON FRASER WIVERSITY March, 1997 AI1 rights reserved. This thesis may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without the permissior?of the author. 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Abstract This thesis sought to answer the question, Why did the Argentine Welfare State not develop in a continuous and consistent manner? The research compared Argentina to Canada in their formative decades prior to 1930 when these two countries were on a similar path to development, and between 1930 and 1970, when the two countries appeared to follow radically divergent paths. with Argentina going into what Carlos Waisman has termed a Reversai of Development. The cornparison looked at the role two variables (political stability and structural dependency) played in fostering an environrnent of state-driven economic development consistent with a stable deveioped Welfare State. This research argues that a high degree of political instability that marked Argentina after 1930- as well as a relatively higher (than Canada) level of structural dependency in that same period, led to an unstable environment of economic development and an unfulfilled Welfare State. The first chapter looks at the relationship the thesis tries to develop between political stability and structural dependency as independent variables. and Welfare State developrnent (within the larger environment of state-driven economic development) as the dependent variable. This chapter also introduces sorne of the models, or approaches, that will be used to help establish this relationship. Lands of Recent Settlement, political stability (Le. labour relations, the military etc.). and structural dependency are some of the models and approaches that will be drawn upon. The second chapter compares Argentina and Canada in the formative decades prior to 1930. Many parallels are drawn between these two countries which were both on the doorstep of economic take-off into industrial developrnent. This chapter also highlights a couple of unique differences between the two countries, differences which could be seen as catalysts to the divergence between the two countries after 1930. The political exclusion of labour (and the iii middle-classes, at least to 19 16) was relatively more extreme than in Canada. The second difference is the more active role of the Canadian state in economic development compared to Argentina The third chapter looks at the two countries afier 1930 when they pursued more radically divergent paths to development. or underdevelopment in the case of Argentina. This chapter looks at the political environment of the two countries, highlighting the much more conflictual nature of the Argentine polity as compared to the more stable cooperative Canadian polity. The effects of trade and investrnent in the two countries, by Britain and the U.S., is also discussed, highlighting the more circurnscribed Argentine attempts at industrialization. The picture is drawn of Argentina as a much more politically unstable country than Canada, with less control over its path to economic development. The fourth chapter looks at the actual evolution of the Welfare State in each country, and how this reflected upon the politico-economic environment in each country at the time. The cornparison that is drawn is of an Argentine Welfare State that did not deveiop, taking two steps fonvard and then two steps back, whereas the Canadian Welfare State slowly progressed, albeit in spurts, to a Ievel of development far greater than that in Argentina. The conclusion argues that this thesis has shown that it was a level of accommodation and consensus in the Canadian polity, especially with regards to the established tradition of state activism in Canadian economic development, that contributed greatly to the formation of a stable developed Welfare State. Because Argentina lacked accommodation between major actors, and did not establish an active state role in the economic development of the country, leaving it to foreign interests. it could not establish the conditions necessary for a stable Welfare State to develop. Areas for future research include Argentina and Canada's economic, social, and political position today. Does Argentina's curent politico-economic environment reflect a conscious move to address the difficulties of the past environment? 1s Canada going through a iv crisis of consensus which will jeopardize economic development directed fiom within, and consequently the Canadian welfare state? DEDICATION For Mom, Dad, and L ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was a collective undertaking dependent upon the assistance of many people. The author would like to express his deepest gratitude to Professors Alberto Ciria and Paddy Smith for their encouragement and unfailingly helpfül feedback and contribution to this thesis. Iwouid also like to thank the faculty and staff of the Political Science Department Last but not least, an unpayable debt of gratitude is owed to my family and friends who never stopped believing that I could actually complete it. vii Bartolomé Miire 1867-68 miliîary victory Domingo F. Sarmiento 1868-74 election Nicolis Avellaneda 1874-80 etection Julio A. Roca 1880-86 election Miguel Juhez Celman I 886-90 election Carlos Pellegrini (v.p.) 1 890-92 president resigned Luis SAenz Pena 1 892-95 elecîion José E. Uribuni (v-p.) 1895-98 president resigned Julio A. Roca 1898- 1904 election Manuel Quintana 1904-06 election José Figueroa Alcorta 1906- IO president died Roque Siienz Pena 1910-14 election Victorino de la Plaza (v,p,) 1914-16 president died Hipolito Yrigoyen 19 16-22 eiection Marcelo T. de Alvear 1922-28 eIection Hipdito Yrigoyen 1928-30 election José F. Uribum 1930-32 military revolt Agustin P. Justo 1932-38 election Roberto M. Ortiz 193840 election Ramon S. Castillo (v.p.) 1940-43 president delegated authority Arturo J. Rawson 1943 rnilitary revolt Pedro Pablo Ramirez 1943-44 coup d'etat Edelmiro J. Farrell 194446 coup d'etat Juan D. Peron 1946-55 election Eduardo Lonardi 1955 rnilitary revolt Pedro P. Arambum 1955-58 ccup d'etat Arturo Frondizi 1958-62 eIection José M. Guido 1962-63 coup d'etat Arturo Illia 1963-66 election Juan Carlos Ongania 1966-70 rnilitary revolt Roberto Marcelo Levingston 1970-71 coup d'etat Alejandro A. Lanusse 197 1-73 coup d'etat Héctor J. Chpora 1973 election Juan D. Per6n 973-74 election Isabel Perh 974-76 president died Jorge Rafael Videla 976-1981 militarycoup Roberto Eduardo Viola 98 1 military election Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri 98 1- 1982 interna1 miIitary coup Reynaldo Bignone ,982-1983 rnilitarycoup Ra~lAlfonsin 983- 1989 election 1 Carlos Menem 1989- election(s) 1 Source: Alberto Ciria, Parties and Power in Modem Awentina p. xiv John A, MacDonald O 1867-73 election (In heldConfd.) Alexander MacKenzie (1) 1873-1878 election John A. MacDonald O 1878-1 89 1 election(s) John Abbott O 1891-92 o.m. died ~ - John Thompson O 1892-94 p.m. resigned MacKenzie Bowell O 1894-96 p.m. died Charles Tupper 0 1896 p.m. resigned Wilf?id Laurier (L) 1896-191 1 election(s) Robert Borden O 191 1-20 electionls) Arthur Meighen 0 1920-21 p.m. resigned Wm. Mackenzie King (L) 1921-26 election Arthur Meighen O 1926 Byng-King &air* Wm.Mackenzie King (L) 1926-1930 election RB. Bennett O 1930-35 election Wm. Mackenzie King (L) 1935-48 eIection(s) Louis St. Laurent (L) 1948-57 p.m resigned/e!ection(s) John Diefenbaker O 1957-63 election(s) Lester B. Pearson (L) 1963-68 election(s) Pierre Trudeau (L) 1968-79 p.m. resigned/election(s) Joe Clark O 1979-80 election Pierre Trudeau (L) 1980-84 election John Turner (L) 1984 p.m. resigned Brian Muironey 1984- 1993 election(s) Kim Campbell 1993 p.m. resigned 1 Jean Chrétien 1993- election I Source: Gordon Donaldson, Sixteen Men: The Prime Ministem of Canada, (Toronto: 1980) TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: ARGENTINA AND CANADA - TEIE BASIS FOR COMPARISON Political Stability Extemal Dependency DRAWING EARLY PARALLELS - POISED FOR TAKlEOFF Staple Theory and Lands of Recent Settlement Preconditions to the Reversal of DeveIoriment POST 1930 - ARGENTINA AND CANADA DIVERGE Modernization and the Workinp CIass The Foundine of New Societies Structural Dependency (Prebisch et, al.) WELFAFü3 STATE EVOLUTION LN ARGENTIETA AND CANADA Canadian Welfare State Argentine