The Continued Relevance of the US Navy's Forward
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BearWorks MSU Graduate Theses Spring 1999 In Harm's Way: The Continued Relevance of the U.S. Navy's Forward Presence Mission in the Post-Cold War World Christopher B. Earls Missouri State University As with any intellectual project, the content and views expressed in this thesis may be considered objectionable by some readers. However, this student-scholar’s work has been judged to have academic value by the student’s thesis committee members trained in the discipline. The content and views expressed in this thesis are those of the student-scholar and are not endorsed by Missouri State University, its Graduate College, or its employees. Follow this and additional works at: https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Recommended Citation Earls, Christopher B., "In Harm's Way: The Continued Relevance of the U.S. Navy's Forward Presence Mission in the Post-Cold War World" (1999). MSU Graduate Theses. 542. https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses/542 This article or document was made available through BearWorks, the institutional repository of Missouri State University. The work contained in it may be protected by copyright and require permission of the copyright holder for reuse or redistribution. For more information, please contact [email protected]. IN HARM'S WAY: THE CONTINUED RELEVANCE OF THE U.S. NAVY'S FORWARD PRESENCE MISSION IN THE POST-cOLD WAR WORLD A Thesis Presented to the Graduate College of Southwest Missouri State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies by Christopher B. Earls May 1999 1UANE G. MEYER LIBRARY IN HARM' S WAY : THE CONTINUED RELEVANCE OF THt!.JT~EST MISSOURI STATE UNIVERSIT' i:;PPll\.fGl=IELD, MO 65804 U.S. NAVY'S FORWARD PRESENCE MISSION LB IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD {qou Department of Defense and Strategic Studies 0 51{,~ Southwest Missouri State University, 14 May 1999 I C,/. C1 lJ I I Master of Science Christopher B. Earls A B S T R A C T With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States Navy has seen the fleet shrink from nearly 600 ships in 1988 to 320 ships in 1999, with a planned reduction to 305 ships by 2004. While the fleet has been reduced by nearly 50 percent over the last decade, the deployment of U.S. naval forces has continued at near-Cold War levels. The result is a mismatch between the national security requirements that naval forces are called on to support, and the forces available to meet those requirements. Some have suggested that the traditional forward presence mission of the Navy Marine Corps team is no longer relevant in the post-Cold War environment. Others suggest that "virtual presence" through space surveillance and global air power can replace the physical presence of naval forces. Still others have advocated a return to an isolationist policy, forgoing military presence altogether. Although U.S. naval forces are no longer required to counter the threat of Soviet aggression, possible peer or near-peer competitors, such as Russia and China, combined with emerging regional powers, require that the United States maintain forces in areas near U.S. interests. This thesis will examine the continued importance of maintaining a strong naval presence in the three principal areas of U.S. interest--the Mediterranean Sea, the Persian Gulf, and Northeast Asia--and the inability to meet U.S. national security requirements with proposed alternatives to forward presence. Also covered will be new systems and operational concepts of the Navy-Marine Corps team, and their importance to the forward presence mission. to form and content Chairman, Committee Southwest Missouri State University ii IN HARM~S WAY: THE CONTINUED RELEVANCE OF THE U.S. NAVY'S FORWARD PRESENCE MISSION IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD by Christopher B. Earls A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate College of Southwest Missouri State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science May 1999 Memb /)~~ Member As ociate Vice Pres· Academic Affairs a the Graduate College iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS No one could possibly pass through the DSS program without the help of friends, mentors, and shipmates. Accordingly, my sincere thanks and four bells apiece go out: First and foremost, to Dr. William R. Van Cleave, educator par excellence. Dr Van Cleave's uncompromising standards and attention to detail make the DSS program a tremendous educational experience. Dr. Van Cleave's wealth of knowledge on issues from the ABM Treaty to the AFC Western Division have been a valuable resource during my two years in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, and I hope to continue to maintain his high standards during my tenure in Washington. I also hope to convince him someday that the Marines really are part of the Navy. Next, to Dr. J.D. Crouch II. Dr. Crouch's guidance and encouragement have been greatly appreciated, from the first day I set foot in the DSS offices over two years ago. His sense of humor, personal experiences in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and openness to alternative meeting locations for assorted DSS courses have all been highly beneficial. His beautiful and gracious wife Kristin has generously provided good barbecue during tailgate parties, Super Bowl parties, and other parties too numerous to mention. In addition, the chess secrets I have learned from Jake Crouch undoubtedly will serve me well in the future. To Captain-select Sam Tangredi, Conunanders Randy Bowdish and Bruce Woodyard, Lt. Colonel Tom Gherki, Conunander-select Howie Hein, Lt. Conunander Craig Faller, and Lt. T.R. Buchanan of the N513 Branch in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations. Thanks for a great sununer internship! To Valerie Murphy, the glue that holds the DSS program together. Thanks for all the advice, direction, and information you have provided. To Tom and Lydene McNew, extended family members since 1974 (Tom) and 1982 (Lydene). Thanks for all you have done for me. iv To James Walter Duncan IV, who has educated me in tactics and strategy since 1972. Together we have overrun Europe, taken it back, defended the Pacific (or conquered it), and generally kept the world safe for America. To the DSS Fire Team: Peter Breier, Esq. (In Vino, Veritas), Christy Cooper (Airborne), Mehmet Demirer (Allahu Ekber!), Todd Fritz ("Keep up!"), Jill Goolsby (Candidate Goolio), John Gountas (1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 f5!), Drew Kennedy ("Right! We'll call it a draw!"), "Big Dave" Mccallum (provider of tequila shots), Jim Richardson (master of the alternative QDR), and Jeritt Soukup ("What's up with the Spice Broads?")--thanks for all the fun times, commiseration during times of stress, and mutual support throughout the program. I hope to continue to see and work with you in our future careers in Washington. Finally, to Rod L.M. Stark, expert on all forms of terrorism and assorted firearms-- "An AK-47 has no electrical parts." Experiences too numerous to list them all: the first day of the Fall 97 year spent moving FBIS files from cardboard boxes to cardboard boxes; the Comprehensive Banter Treaty; survival training at the High Life bar; a mushroom cloud on the slopes of Winter Park, CO; beers in the USAF Fighter Bar; burgers at Ground Zero, the Pentagon; the basics of bicycle security; learning about USMC helicopter training at Ireland's Own in D.C.; "nee no!!"; the USMC Evening Parade with Colonel Worden and assorted young girls; 4th of July at the Capitol Building; "Fill this out and mail it to the Marines for me"; Fritz, Ann Taylor dresses, and Macanudo cigars; "Nick Rock! Inbound, port side!"; Spring Break 98- Kneecaps and NORAD; Spring Break 99-Condos, Coors, and Cartilage; "You're nothing but an anonymous biological terrorist!". Where the Hell is Oakley, Kansas?; "Tracking .•••. missile away!!" I hope to continue to work, play, travel, ski, and generally have a good time with you and Sarah in the future. V TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKN'OWLEDGMENTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• i V LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..... ............................ ix Chapter I. INTRODUCTION • •••••••..••••••••••••••••••••••••. 1 II. AMERICAN NATIONAL INTERESTS AND THREATS ....... 18 U.S. National Interests .•..••.••.•.......•. 18 Freedom of the Seas •••..•.••••.••••• 24 Access to Resources ••.•.••...••••••• 30 Safety of U. s. Allies •••..•• ·.•.••••• 35 Deterring Regional Conflict ••••.••.• 39 Specific Interests in the Mediterranean Sea •••••••••••••••••••••• 42 Freedom of the Seas ••••••.•.•.•••••• 43 Access to Resources .•••••.••••••••.. 46 Safety of U.S. Allies .......•.•••.•. 47 Deterring Regional Conflict .•••••.•• 49 Specific Interests in the Persian Gulf .....•.••......•••..•.•..•• 52 Freedom of the Seas ..........•..•.•. 52 Access to Resources ••.•...••••.••••• 54 Safety of U.S. Allies •••...•.•.•••.• 56 Deterring Regional Conflict •.•...... 57 Specific Interests in Northeast Asia ••...•••••••••..••••••••• 59 Freedom of the Seas ..•••••.••.•.••.• 59 Access to Resources ...•.•.....•.••.• 61 Safety of U.S. Allies .......•••.••.• 61 Deterring Regional Conflict .•••••••• 65 Threats to U.S. Interests ..•.••..•.•.•.••.• 67 Peer or Near-Peer Competitors .•..•.. 67 Regional "Bad Actors" ..•..........•. 71 Sumntary . ..................................• 7 4 III. THE NAVAL FORWARD PRESENCE MISSION ............ 78 Why Forward Presence? ....•••••...••.••.••.• 79 Why Naval Forward Presence? ••••..••.••••.•• 83 Naval Diplomacy . ........................... 91 Deterrence ...........•.....•.•••••.•