ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Contents

38NEWS RESEARCH4 AND ANALYSIS 34OUTREACH 42 48 LEADERSHIP BY THE NUMBERS Our mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.

Seventy years ago, Project RAND separated from the Douglas Aircraft Company of Santa Monica, California, and became an independent, nonprofit organization. Since that time, RAND’s commitment to the public interest has never wavered. RAND’s research pursuits have expanded to include both defense-related topics as well as economic and social challenges— not just in the United States but also across the globe. Today, we have staff from more than 50 countries working in RAND offices in the United States, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Australia. All share a commitment to RAND’s core values: quality and objectivity. In addition, the Pardee RAND Graduate School operates the world’s foremost doctoral program in policy analysis. The school attracts top talent from around the world, who in their postgraduate careers are highly sought after by employers in government, academia, research organizations, private industry, and nongovernmental public-service organizations. The people of RAND are energized by the opportunity to use research and analysis to find solutions to today’s most pressing challenges: how to ensure that every individual and family has an opportunity to reach their full potential; how to ensure that communities promote the well-being of their residents and are resilient in the event and aftermath of crises; and how to ensure that America and its allies are prosperous and secure in an era of growing international dangers. The need for RAND’s brand of rigorous and objective analysis has never been greater. The last two decades have witnessed the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life, a phenomenon we have called “truth decay.” Understanding the drivers and consequences of truth decay and mitigating its most damaging effects are the focus of a new RAND book and a continuing portfolio of projects. RAND was established on the proposition that solving complex policy problems should begin with the facts. That proposition is just as valid today, so we are grateful for the commitment of our clients, grantors, and donors to rigorous and objective analysis and for the trust that they place in RAND. On this milestone occasion of our 70th anniversary, we thank you for your support and interest in RAND.

Michael D. Rich Karen Elliott House President and Chief Executive Officer Chair, RAND Board of Trustees

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 3 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

A Resource for Decisionmakers

For seven decades, clients and grantors around the world have turned to RAND for empirical, nonpartisan, and objective research and analysis, bringing us their most vexing and complex public policy challenges. These organizations include cabinet-level agencies, charitable trusts, city governments, and community nonprofits. These decisionmakers include program managers, CEOs, administrators, doctors, thought leaders, and educators. They have different concerns, different priorities, and different constraints. But these diverse clients have one thing in common: They need analysis that relies on the best data and the strongest methods. And for that, in a landscape full of universities, think tanks, and consulting firms, they turn to RAND and its unique blend of scrupulous nonpartisanship and rigorous, fact-based analysis. On the following pages, we share highlights from RAND’s client-funded research in 2017. These projects demonstrate an approach to problem-solving that is founded on rigor, stripped of speculation, and dedicated to promoting the public welfare and security. Our initial findings suggest that these quality measures could go a long way toward improving patient outcomes among those who suffer from opioid addiction.

KATHERINE E. WATKINS Senior Physician Policy Researcher

Reducing Opioid-Related Fatalities

America’s addiction to heroin, fentanyl, and other opioids has In a separate study, researchers showed that psychotherapy helped make drug overdoses a bigger killer than car crashes and psychosocial treatments could reduce mortality and gun violence. Researchers identified three measures among people with all substance-abuse disorders, not that could cut the death toll by nearly a third for people with just opioid addictions. opioid addictions. Even just starting treatment for a substance-abuse disorder The researchers reviewed the medical records of more than was associated with a 14 percent reduction in mortality over 30,000 patients with an opioid-use disorder in the Veterans 12 months. Those who engaged with treatment and stuck with Affairs health care system. They found that one-year death it had 34 percent lower mortality rates over 12 months. rates dropped from around 6 percent to 4 percent when The National Institute on Drug Abuse sponsored both studies. the care those patients received followed three key quality measures—potentially saving hundreds of lives. The Veterans Affairs patients that the researchers analyzed differ in some fundamental ways from patients in private care. Those measures included psychosocial treatment, such More research is needed to test whether the same quality as individual or group therapy, and regular doctor visits. measures work as well in other treatment settings. But the But it was the third that was the most effective: Making sure findings could point the way toward better treatment to help recovering addicts had no access to opioids or anti-anxiety combat America’s opioid crisis. benzodiazepines, not even as prescriptions following surgery. Learn more at www.rand.org/t/EP67359

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 5 Cracks in the International Order

The international order that the United States and its allies The international order remains stable for now, the built from the wreckage of World War II has reached a researchers concluded in a report for the Office of the turning point. To survive, it must change. Secretary of Defense. But pressure for reform is building. The rules and norms of the international order have helped Business as usual is no longer a viable option. open markets, avert war among great powers, and guide The United States and its allies must accommodate more seven decades of international affairs. But researchers voices while still upholding international norms. They must looking at an array of indicators, from trade numbers to continue to promote trade and economic stability while public opinions, concluded that the order is starting to show protecting people made vulnerable by globalization. cracks. This is a perilous moment for the international order, That was apparent even before populist uprisings in the the researchers concluded—and no time for the United United States, Britain, and elsewhere challenged some of States to step back. Its alliances, trade agreements, and the very foundations of that order, such as liberal trade and commitment to international institutions like the United immigration policies. Nations have helped promote world order for 70 years. Developing nations have increasingly viewed the order’s Its withdrawal now could be the final crack in that system. promises of economic prosperity as empty. Major powers like Russia and China have strained against a world order Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1994 in which the United States writes the rules.

Our analysis strongly supports the sense of an encroaching period of uncertainty and potentially more- dramatic swings in the health of the order—an inflection point in the character of the international order.

MICHAEL J. MAZARR Senior Political Scientist

6 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Russian Responses to the U.S. and NATO

The United States and NATO have started to move thousands The researchers then used that framework to gauge likely of troops into the Baltic region to deter any possible Russian Russian responses to NATO’s current plans to strengthen aggression. That has raised a critical question: How might its posture in the Baltics. Russia respond? They concluded that, despite its rhetoric, Russia is not The answer could range from quiet acceptance to escalation likely to risk an armed confrontation over what are still and open conflict. Given the stakes, researchers built an relatively limited NATO moves. It appears to see no real analytical framework to help decisionmakers think through strategic value in retaking the Baltic states. But there how Russia might perceive U.S. and NATO actions, and how are domestic factors—a struggling economy, resurgent it is likely to react. nationalist groups—that could make its foreign policy less Their framework, produced for the U.S. Air Force in Europe, predictable in the future. Further, its elites increasingly takes into account Russia’s domestic situation and the view the United States and NATO as long-term threats. broader strategic context, in addition to the specifics of any Understanding that context is key as NATO continues to NATO moves. It draws on current Russian writing about build up its forces in eastern Europe. Recent failures in security and defense, as well as historical precedents and anticipating Russian moves, such as its 2014 invasion assessments of Russian strategic thinking. of Crimea, underscore the importance of thinking through how it might respond.

Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1879

Russian reactions to U.S. and NATO posture enhancements could vary considerably, depending on the context in which they take place. Policymakers need to pay careful attention to that, to make sure they maximize the effectiveness of those enhancements while minimizing the risk of unwanted Russian reactions.

BRYAN FREDERICK Political Scientist

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 7 The U.S. Army Investment in Cyber Warriors

The U.S. Army faces a formidable rival as it begins to build the five-year initial obligation for cyber specialists, to ensure up its cyber-warfare forces: the civilian job market. the Army benefits from the extensive training it provides. Senior leaders throughout the Department of Defense have Cyber is a new field for the Army; its first class of specialists worried their cyber warriors will jump to better-paying jobs completed training in 2017. It will be important to follow civilian after years of investment and training. To help the Army employment trends going forward, especially if the private understand the likelihood of that happening, researchers sector begins to show less preference for college degrees. analyzed how Army cyber occupations compare with Keeping such in-demand specialists in the Army will require similar jobs in the corporate world, and how the Army might knowing what opportunities they perceive outside of it. compete more effectively. Cyber operations specialists must pass some of the Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1978 toughest entrance requirements in the Army and commit to five years of service after training. But after that, the researchers found, they could compete for civilian jobs as information security analysts. Median earnings: around $82,000 a year. These soldiers require That perceived opportunity could draw highly trained cyber specialists away from the Army. But without a college extensive training, and Army leadership degree, former Army cyber specialists would likely make was concerned that they will be lured less than a typical information security analyst—roughly what they made in the Army, especially when housing away by lucrative allowances and other benefits are included. jobs in the civilian For most, a combination of specialty pay and retention labor market. bonuses could tip the balance in favor of staying in the Army. The researchers also recommended keeping

JENNIE W. WENGER Senior Economist

8 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 American Working Conditions

American workers face high rates of physical strain, hazar- 5 percent of women reported unwanted sexual attention dous conditions, and abuse on the job, according to one of just in the preceding month. Men reported higher rates the most in-depth surveys of the American workplace of verbal abuse. ever done. The median pay for full-time working men in the survey: More than 3,000 people answered questions about their $54,000. For women: $44,000. jobs and workplaces for RAND’s American Working The results were not all negative. More than half of workers Conditions Survey. The results help fill a gap in our said they have a supportive boss, and more than three- knowledge about the daily realities of American workers, quarters said they like and respect their colleagues. Most and could guide public policies or workplace initiatives to said they have the freedom to apply their own ideas at their improve working conditions. Future reports will compare jobs. And two-thirds thought they were doing useful work. the American workplace with those in Europe and other parts of the world. Older people who had retired or were no longer in the workforce pointed to those positive factors—more than Nearly three-quarters of all workers reported intense or even the paycheck—as a reason they would consider repetitive physical exertion at least some of the time, from clocking back in. moving heavy objects to sitting for long stretches. More than a third said they encounter potentially hazardous or Support for the project was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan unpleasant conditions at their workplace. Foundation and the Social Security Administration through the Michigan Retirement Research Center. More than one in ten workers said they experienced on- the-job bullying or harassment in the past year. Nearly Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR2014

One thing employers can do is push back against the perception that there is a business case for pushing employees to their limits. They should instead require that managers protect their employees from abusive coworkers, clients, and customers.

KATHLEEN J. MULLEN Senior Economist

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 9 Teachers on Statewide Standards

American teachers strongly support state standards in math The numbers flipped when the questions turned to and language arts. But that support drops when it comes standardized tests. Only about 30 percent of those same to statewide tests to assess their students’ mastery of those teachers supported their state’s tests. Opposition was subjects. stronger among teachers with high numbers of special- Standardized tests and instruction have become a political needs students and those in Common Core states. flash point. To help inform the debate, researchers surveyed Teachers cited two major concerns with state tests: that more than 1,300 public school teachers for on-the-ground they were too difficult for their students, and that they did insight into what works, and what doesn’t. not accurately assess students with special learning needs. The RAND American Teacher Panel survey, with funding Many also said preparing students for the tests took time from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, found that nearly away from classroom work. 90 percent of math and language arts teachers supported The survey results could help policymakers assess and the use of statewide standards in classroom instruction. improve classroom instruction and standardized tests. In That support was especially high among teachers in low- particular, states and school districts should strive to align income schools and those with higher numbers of English their state tests with state standards, and to communicate learners. It was a few percentage points lower in states how they fit together to the teachers making the lessons. where teachers reported using a set of academic standards They should also identify instructional materials that more known as Common Core. closely align with those same tests and standards.

Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR2136

Our survey findings suggest that states and districts have much more work to do to improve the implementation of state tests to measure students’ mastery of standards.

JULIA H. KAUFMAN Policy Researcher

10 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 What’s exciting about this is that we’re getting to the point where policymakers have a lot of evidence that well-implemented early childhood programs are a good investment.

M. REBECCA KILBURN Senior Economist

Early Childhood Investments

Programs that help children develop and learn in their first Few of the evaluations had tried to measure costs versus few years can have a lasting impact on their lives. benefits. In those that did, though, the researchers found Researchers at RAND were among the first to demonstrate returns of $2 to $4 were typical for every dollar invested. the enormous potential future savings from early childhood Policymakers have ample evidence now that early education, home visiting, and other early childhood childhood programs work and are worth the investment, programs. Their latest study, building on research they the researchers concluded in their report for the Robert began in the 1990s, analyzed 115 programs, all of which Wood Johnson Foundation. That’s especially important for had undergone rigorous evaluations. It found 102 made a children of social or economic disadvantage, they noted. clear and positive difference in young lives. Done well, early childhood programs can give them a better Those evaluations often measured many different child shot at success before they even reach grade school. outcomes, from test scores to behavior to health. When the researchers looked at every outcome in every study of Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1993 the 115 programs—more than 3,000 measured outcomes in all—they found 29 percent showed improvement. That was a winning percentage given the sheer range of outcomes measured, about six times higher than would be expected from random chance alone.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 11 Clients and Grantors

U.S. Government Department of Health and Human Services U.S. State and Local Non-U.S. Governments, Administration for Children and Families Governments Agencies, and Ministries Administrative Office of the United Agency for Healthcare Research States Courts and Quality Commonwealth of Massachusetts Canada Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Centers for Disease Control and Department of Public Health Department of National Defence Department of Commerce Prevention Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Commonwealth of Australia National Oceanic and Atmospheric Centers for Medicare and County of Allegheny European Union Administration Medicaid Services Pittsburgh Public Schools European Commission Department of Defense Health Resources and Services Commonwealth of Virginia Directorate-General for Health and Defense Centers of Excellence Administration Office of the Attorney General Food Safety Defense Contract Management National Institutes of Health State of California Directorate-General for Migration and Agency Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Home Affairs City of Santa Monica Defense Security Cooperation Institute of Child Health and Human Directorate-General for Research Department of Industrial Relations Agency Development and Innovation Department of Social Services Department of the Air Force National Cancer Institute Research Executive Agency Los Angeles County Department of the Army National Center for Complementary European Defence Agency and Integrative Health First 5 LA Medical Research Acquisition European Parliament Activity National Heart, Lung, and Blood Metropolitan Transportation Government of Japan Department of the Navy Institute Authority Iraq Marine Corps National Institute on Aging Probation Department Kurdistan Regional Government Naval Postgraduate School National Institute on Alcohol Abuse State of Delaware and Alcoholism People’s Republic of China Joint Special Operations Command State of Illinois National Institute of Allergy Jinan Water Resources Bureau Joint Staff City of Chicago and Infectious Diseases Republic of Korea Office of the Secretary of Defense State of Louisiana National Institute of Dental and Korea Institute for Health and Social City of New Orleans Office of the Director, Cost Craniofacial Research Affairs Assessment and Program State of Michigan National Institute of Diabetes and United Arab Emirates Evaluation Michigan Indigent Defense Digestive and Kidney Diseases Embassy of the United Arab Emirates Under Secretary of Defense for Commission National Institute on Drug Abuse United Kingdom Acquisition, Technology, and State of New York Logistics National Institute of Environmental Defence Science and Technology Health Sciences NYC Opportunity Defense Advanced Research Laboratory Office of Indigent Legal Services Projects Agency National Institute of Mental Health Department of Health State of Ohio Under Secretary of Defense for National Institute on Minority Department for Transport Health and Health Disparities Cincinnati Public Schools Personnel and Readiness Foreign & Commonwealth Office National Institute of Nursing State of Oregon Under Secretary of Defense Ministry of Defence for Policy Research Multnomah County Health Department National Institute for Health Research Special Operations Joint Task Department of Homeland Security Oregon Health Authority Public Health England Force–Afghanistan U.S. Coast Guard State of Vermont Transport for London Unified Combatant Commands Department of Justice Agency of Administration Department of Education National Institute of Justice Institute of Education Sciences Office of Justice Programs Department of Energy Department of Labor National Renewable Energy Department of State Laboratory Department of Veterans Affairs Federal Communications Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation Office of the Director of National Intelligence Intelligence Community RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele.

12 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 International Organizations Foundations Other Nonprofit Industry Organizations BasicNeeds Aetna Foundation Abt Associates NATO Baton Rouge Area Foundation American Institutes for Research AIA Group Organisation for Economic Co-operation Bristol-Myers Squibb Foundation Baycrest Alkermes and Development (OECD) The California Endowment Brilliant Corners American Petroleum Institute World Bank Carnegie Corporation of New York California Mental Health Services Authority Amgen World Health Organization CHDI Foundation California Travel and Tourism Commission ARCADIS The Commonwealth Fund Cedars-Sinai Medical Center Biogen Communities Foundation of Texas Center for Court Innovation Bristol-Myers Squibb Colleges and Universities Una Chapman Cox Foundation Children’s Hospital Boston Canvas Medical Boston University DICK’S Sporting Good Foundation Collaborative Spine Research Foundation CarePoint Health Columbia University Elizabeth Dole Foundation College for All Texans Foundation Chevron Corporation Columbia University Medical Center Education Endowment Foundation Corporation for Supportive Housing Ethicon Endo-Surgery, Inc. The Evergreen State College Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Criterion Education, LLC Health Services Advisory Group Florida International University The Health Foundation ExpandED Schools ICF International, Inc. The George Washington University Health Strategies of New Hampshire, Inc. Great Lakes Higher Education Corporation IZA (Institute for the Study of Labor) Harvard University The Helmsley Charitable Trust and Affiliates Janssen Scientific Affairs Brigham and Women’s Hospital The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Gulf of Mexico Alliance KH Consulting Group Indiana University The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Harlem Children’s Zone Kidney Disease Program of Glendale Johns Hopkins University The Klarman Family Foundation Hepatitis Foundation International Mathematica Policy Research NORC at the University of Chicago Laughing Gull Foundation International Initiative for Impact Microsoft Evaluation (3ie) Pennsylvania State University Henry Luce Foundation New York City Economic JIR PFS (“Just-in-Reach” Pay for Success) Research Foundation of the MacArthur Foundation Development Corporation Kaiser Foundation Research Institute City University of New York Nellie Mae Education Foundation Pillar Systems Corporation Kentucky Valley Educational Cooperative Singapore Management University McCormick Tribune Foundation Policy Studies Associates, Inc. Korea Institute for Defense Analyses Tufts University Richard King Mellon Foundation Renova Therapeutics Leading Educators University of Arizona, Tucson New York State Health Foundation Resolution Economics Mayor’s Fund to Advance New York City University of Arkansas The Pew Charitable Trusts Schell Games Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center University of California Anthony and Jeanne Pritzker Family Symantec University of California, Berkeley Foundation The MITRE Corporation Truven Health Analytics University of California, Los Angeles Raikes Foundation The Monterrey Metropolitan Water Fund United Healthcare Services, Inc. (Fondo de Agua Metropolitano de University of California, San Diego The Rockefeller Foundation VitalityHealth Monterrey) University of Maryland Royal Society Westat National Academy of Sciences University of Michigan Alfred P. Sloan Foundation National Committee for Quality Assurance The University of Nevada, Reno The Stanton Foundation These clients and grantors National Education Association The University of North Carolina at Chapel The Wallace Foundation commissioned one or more projects National Safety Council that were active in 2017 and that Hill Walton Family Foundation Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship totaled at least $100,000. For revenue University of Pennsylvania by client sector, see p. 49. New Leaders for New Schools University of Pittsburgh NYC Leadership Academy University of Southern California Professional Patient-Centered Outcomes Research The University of Texas at Tyler Associations Institute University of Washington American Academy of Nursing The Research Foundation for the State Vanderbilt University American Association of Neuromuscular University of New York and Electrodiagnostic Medicine The Scripps Research Institute American Heart Association Silicon Valley Community Foundation American Orthotic and Prosthetic Single Stop USA Association TNTP National Governors Association United Way of Greater Cincinnati Vera Institute of Justice The Water Institute of the Gulf

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 13 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

RAND Ventures

Fueled by philanthropic gifts and RAND’s income from operations, RAND Ventures is an important way to pursue visionary ideas; address critical problems that are under-researched; shape emerging policy debates; and devise innovative approaches for solving acute, complex, or provocative policy challenges. In short, RAND Ventures helps us think big. RAND Ventures is like a research and development lab—essential to our ability to gaze over the horizon, beyond the constraints of many of today’s decisionmakers, to imagine, prepare for, and enable what’s next. On the following pages, we share highlights from RAND Ventures in 2017. These projects introduced innovations by using existing methods in new contexts, generated important and timely insights, or spotlighted novel ways to frame some of the biggest challenges of our time. We have to be careful and not give people a false hope that they can just watch for warning signs to prevent suicide. It’s really way more complicated than that.

RAJEEV RAMCHAND Senior Behavioral Scientist

Understanding Suicide

The public-service message has been clear: To prevent More than two-thirds of the people in the study had a suicide, watch for warning signs. But according to RAND diagnosed mental illness; more than half were using illegal research, it’s much more complicated than that. drugs. For their friends and families, the warning signs Around 120 people die by suicide on an average day in were a part of daily life, not a new behavior that could have America, making it one of the leading causes of death. signaled a growing risk of suicide. RAND research has helped suicide hotlines better respond The findings could reorient suicide-prevention efforts toward to callers in crisis, and helped military leaders better high-quality programs for people with mental illness, and address suicide risks in the ranks. support services for families struggling with depression But to understand suicide up close, a small team of and other types of mental illness. The time to intervene, researchers embedded themselves with the coroner’s office the researchers concluded, is not just in the hours or days in New Orleans. They conducted “psychological autopsies” before a suicide attempt, but in the months and even of 17 people who died by suicide, interviewing family and years leading up to it. friends about their loved one’s daily routines, relationships, health and financial problems, and other factors. Learn more at www.rand.org/t/EP67027 One clear pattern emerged: In almost none of the cases did the usual warning signs—withdrawing, acting anxious or aimless, voicing suicidal thoughts—provide a reliable red flag.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 15 The Burdens of Brexit

The United Kingdom will almost certainly take an economic But negotiations on such a deal have been on hold hit when it makes its Brexit from the European Union since the beginning of the Trump administration. in 2019. Drawing on RAND’s long experience with game theory, the Researchers modeled the most plausible scenarios and researchers also showed that the EU has the upper hand concluded that almost all leave the UK in worse economic in its negotiations with Britain. That’s in part due to the high shape than if it had stayed. That’s true even if it succeeds stakes for the British economy, but also because of the tight in negotiating a free-trade agreement with the EU to take deadline for negotiating any exit deal. And the EU’s main effect after its membership ends. objective is to ensure the British are worse off when they If it fails even that—the “no-deal scenario”—then it stands leave, to discourage other states from following. to lose $140 billion after ten years, resulting in an economy RAND posted an online Brexit calculator with the study. nearly 5 percent smaller than it would have been. A free- It allows users to change assumptions and create new trade deal with Europe would help, but only so much. The scenarios to explore the economic consequences of Brexit British economy would still lose $55 billion after ten years. as negotiations proceed. In fact, the analysis found only one scenario in which post-Brexit Britain comes out ahead: if it can negotiate Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR2200 a three-way trade deal with the EU and the United States.

Nothing like Brexit has occurred in the last century. Advocates expect it will mean renewed sovereignty over economic and social policy. But the United Kingdom is learning that leaving the European Union is likely to also have real costs.

MARCO HAFNER Research Leader

16 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Spreading federal dollars around to fund short- term, ‘shovel-ready’ projects without a sense of national purpose or priority will not get the United States where it needs to be.

DEBRA KNOPMAN Principal Researcher

A Plan for U.S. Infrastructure

America’s roads, bridges, mass transit, and water works They could ramp up experiments to replace the existing gas have a reputation for disrepair. But when researchers took tax with a fee based on miles traveled to fund transportation a closer look at that infrastructure, they found that not projects. They should make vital federal assets such as everything is broken—except our approach to maintaining military bases, national parks, dams, and levees a high and investing in it. priority for maintenance funding. And they should require There’s no question that U.S. transportation and water greater resilience to natural disasters and climate change infrastructure is showing signs of age. More than 60 percent as a condition of public funding, to lower federal recovery of the interstate highway system, for example, was built costs in the future. before 1970. But annual spending increases of 2.8 percent Above all, the federal government needs a plan. It should above inflation could largely eliminate backlogs for highway work with state and local governments to prioritize and bridge repairs by 2032. investments that benefit the nation as a whole, address That would represent billions of dollars in new spending regional needs, or exceed the capacity of individual states. across all levels of government. But there are ways to Its focus should be on maintaining and modernizing vital pay for it. infrastructure to meet the needs of the 21st century. Federal policymakers could expand existing credit programs Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1739 and broaden the pool of investors willing to help state and local governments finance needed improvements.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 17 Bias and Errors in Artificial Intelligence

Movie recommendations, credit scores, and even home a given decision was computer mediated; and the loans and job offers might all come down to the cryptic people affected by that decision should know enough to judgment of computer algorithms. And that should make question—and, if needed, challenge—the outcome. everyone a little nervous. Bias, inequality, and outright racism are often hardwired Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1744 into the algorithms and data that machines are using to make increasingly important decisions, researchers found. Criminal courts, for example, have been using a risk-assessment algorithm in sentencing hearings that Researchers in artificial too often penalizes people of color. intelligence and algorithms dismissed Feeding even the best algorithms a diet of historically biased data only teaches them to imitate those same [questions of bias] because they biases. That has real consequences when those algorithms were not ‘engineering concerns.’ are helping to decide who can get a home loan or where police should focus their patrols. That was OK for commercial toys, Part of the answer lies with the algorithms themselves, but the moment the switch was the researchers concluded. Decision-making machines made to applying algorithms should have an audit function that allows human operators to track back the reasoning behind a given answer, to public policy systems, the issue to ensure transparency and fairness. of bias no longer But the researchers also called for “algorithmic literacy” became a triviality. in society at large—a healthy skepticism that the algorithms of everyday life don’t always make the best decisions. Organizations using algorithms should disclose when

OSONDE A. OSOBA Engineer

18 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Iraq and Syria from Space

The Islamic State struggled to govern the cities it conquered, The researchers found only occasional signs of effective or even to keep the lights on, researchers found, based on governance, mostly in major cities like Mosul or Raqqa— observations from hundreds of miles overhead. in the core of the caliphate, away from heavy fighting. Satellite data provided an unprecedented look at how cities ISIS invested in a central marketplace in Mosul, for and local economies changed when ISIS took control. The example, that was soon crowded with shoppers and data allowed researchers to follow agricultural production, truck traffic, all of which it could tax. pinpoint working factories, even estimate the number of The group has since lost much of the territory it once commercial trucks on the road. ruled. That has given RAND’s analysis new importance Researchers collected data on more than 150 cities in Iraq as a window into the economic damage left behind, and Syria, month by month. They estimated that as much as and what it will take to rebuild. Researchers have been a third of the population had fled areas under ISIS control. working with U.S. government agencies to prioritize Factories closed; fields withered. In Syria, more than work in Syria to help stabilize cities captured from ISIS— 60 percent of the urban lights went dark in ISIS-controlled restoring the electric grid, for example, or building territory as the group struggled to restore electricity or up local markets. fuel generators. In Iraq, it was more like 80 percent. Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1970

Without the military campaign to retake this territory, the Islamic State could have tried to replicate some of the modest success it experienced in Mosul and Raqqa. We would be facing a much different enemy.

ERIC ROBINSON Research Programmer and Analyst

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 19 Community Citizen Science

In 2015, a worried mother in Flint, Mich., began sending Some states have already turned to citizen scientists to help samples of her tap water to a Virginia Tech lab to be tested with environmental monitoring. Federal law encourages for lead. The results helped expose a public-health crisis science agencies to use crowdsourcing and citizen science that may have poisoned 100,000 people. to advance their missions. RAND has collaborated on They also demonstrated the power of citizen science. citizen-science projects in New York and Louisiana. Growing numbers of concerned citizens are using scientific The citizen-science movement is, in some ways, a return tools, such as data collection or environmental monitoring, to scientific tradition, the researchers wrote. The theory of often to improve their own communities. Researchers evolution and the field of genetics, for example, both owe surveying the field concluded those citizen scientists could their origins to amateur, citizen scientists. transform both science and public policy, but major barriers remain. Learn more at www.rand.org/t/PE256 Concerns about the quality of citizen-generated data have held back its potential, the researchers found. Many citizen- science projects, driven by community concerns, also walk a fine line between research and advocacy. What is needed, the researchers concluded, is for citizens, scientists, and decisionmakers at all levels to work together to enhance and encourage citizen science. The scientific community, for example, could partner with and guide citizens as on-the-ground data collectors.

With the rise of citizen science, we hope that scientific debate can now motivate an educated and observant public to help renew the scientific enterprise for the production of greater knowledge.

RAMYA CHARI Policy Researcher

20 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Gifts—Making a Difference

The RAND Ventures program combines philanthropic gifts from individuals, foundations, and private-sector firms with earnings from RAND’s endowment and operations to help RAND support vital research pursuits and outreach activities that would otherwise go unfunded. Our donors share RAND’s commitment to quality, objectivity, and independence; entrust us with protecting these values in our work; and help RAND have an impact across the national and global policy landscape.

RAND gratefully acknowledges gifts made by the following donors in 2017.

$1,000,000 and up Burford Capital Robert and Joan Clifford Christopher (CJ) Oates Jim and Anahita Lovelace Cedars-Sinai Health System The Doctors Company Adele Palmer Leonard D. Schaeffer Carl Douglas Tom Epley and Linnae Anderson Bradley A. Perkins, M.D. and Mary Lou Lindegren, M.D. Cyrus and Michael Tang Foundation ExxonMobil Corporation Kenneth R. Feinberg Arnold and Anne Porath Farmers Group, Inc. Peter and Sharon Fiekowsky Gabriela and David Porges $500,000–$999,999 Michal Grayevsky Addison Fischer R. Ramaraj Korea Foundation The Home Depot, Inc. Adam Flatto Scott C. Ratzan and Anheuser- Nancy and Dana G. Mead Benny T. Hu Florida Blue Foundation Busch InBev Susan and Tod Hullin Marilyn and Robert Funari Family Anne Rea $100,000–$499,999 Foundation JL Foundation William J. Recker GE Healthymagination and Anonymous Darcy Kopcho General Electric Company Neeraja and Raju Reddy Robert J. Abernethy Liberty Mutual Insurance Geisinger System Services, David Kanwal Rekhi Allstate Insurance Company Companies T. Feinberg John J. Rydzewski The Honorable Harold Brown Michael M. Lynton Patrick J. Geraghty The SahanDaywi Foundation Marcia and Frank C. Carlucci Maiden Insurance Company Michael Gould Christopher Seeger Estate of John and Carol Cazier Eloisa and Santiago D. Morales Michelle and Cyrus Hadidi Siguler Guff & Company Jacques E. and Carine Dubois Gerald L. Parsky Ellen M. Hancock Lucille Ellis Simon Foundation Epstein Family Foundation Andrew J. Pinkes The Isambard Kingdom Brunel Douglas J. Smith Jim and Susan Gaither Swiss Reinsurance Company Society of North America Sony Pictures Entertainment Diane P. and Guilford Glazer Fund Wanxiang America Donald M. James Family Corporation, Pin Ni Joseph P. and Carol Z. Sullivan Mary and Peter Griffith Foundation XL Group M.C. Sungaila Joel Hyatt Zain Jeewanjee Lawrence and Carol Zicklin The Varelas Family Fund The Karen Katen Foundation Benjamin Jiaravanon Todd Wilcox Peter Lowy Reginald L. Jones, III $25,000–$49,999 Ronald A. Williams Susan F. and Donald B. Rice Hussein Khalifa Anonymous (2) Weldon Wilson Maxine and Eugene S. Rosenfeld Spencer H. Kim S. Ward Atterbury Songyee Yoon, NCSOFT Cultural State Farm Insurance Joseph and Mirit Konowiecki Vivian and William Benter Foundation Taipei Economic & Cultural Office Ann McLaughlin Korologos in Los Angeles William Benz Terry and Margaret Lenzner $10,000–$24,999 BGR Group Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Siobhan MacDermott Anonymous Chris Brothers Charles J. Zwick William E. Mayer AARP Elizabeth J. Cabraser Aria Mehrabi Goli Ameri $50,000–$99,999 Chevron Corporation Steve Metzger Amgen Robert Adler and Alexis Frank M. Clark Y&S Nazarian Family Foundation Deutsch Adler Nancy and John Novogrod American International Group, Inc.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 21 Gifts—Making a Difference

Ambassador Barbara M. Barrett SangDuck Choi Thomas T. Tierney David and Kelly Daigle Marcia K. Bird Maren Christensen Travelers Institute Christopher DeHappy Lynn Booth and Kent Kresa Margery A. Colloff Jared and Courtney Wolff Susan Dentzer and Charles Alston Jane Cavalier Natalie W. Crawford David and Claudia Zuercher J. Christopher Donahue, Federated Investors, Inc. Chertoff Group, Chad Sweet Richard Danzig Dusina Family Michael J. Critelli Michael Dardia $1,000–$4,999 Mitchell Dusina Farmers Group, Inc. Lindsee P. Granfield Anonymous (7) Greg and Donna Econn Family The Feintech Family Joe and Janus Greer Dorothy and Allan Abrahamse Foundation Cliff and Leslie Gilbert-Lurie Daniel Grunfeld Jan Paul Acton Allison Elder and Tom Reinsel Tom Girardi Stephen and Ann Hadley Bill Allen Glenn A. Ellis Cambria and Howard Gordon Lilibet and Chuck Hagel Robert E. Alschuler Jonathan and Karin Fielding Dr. Jay Hellman Mary Ann and Kip Hagopian Bob and Peggy Alspaugh The Fine Foundation Bonnie and Walter Hill, Jr. Laura Holmgren and Frank G. C. Andersen Laura and Chester Fisher Fukuyama Ann and Steve Hinchliffe Andrews Family Law Arnie and Judy Fishman Roy A. Hunt Foundation Karen Elliott House Nancy A. Aossey The Forbes Fund William H. Hurt Ghada and Ray R. Irani Barbara and Rae Archibald Ichiro Fujisaki Lionel Johnson Robert and Ardis James James J. Bagley JoAnn and Julian Ganz Foundation Julie and Paul G. Kaminski Barry Balmat Donald and Frances Gaver Elizabeth and Alexander Kendall Terri and Michael Kaplan Dorothy and Nick Beckwith Camille Goern MassMutual Financial Group Zalmay M. Khalilzad Nick Beldecos Michael Gold and Valerie Swigart Randolph Preston McAfee Philip and Linda Lader Howard L. Berman Janet Olsen Goldberg Mead Foundation Michael and Alice Leiter Tollie Besson Maureen Grace Robert A. K. Mitchell Arthur and Marilyn Levitt Larry S. Blair, Metz Lewis Brodman John and Susan Graham Juan Carlos Navarro John Lu and Keiko Chafey Must O’Keefe LLC Jay Greer Joseph P. Newhouse Nancy A. Lyon Orest and Catherine Bodnar Gwen and Gene Gritton Rob Oehler and Helene Lin Kent and Martha McElhattan Win Boerckel Lalita D. Gupte Jane and Ronald L. Olson The Michelson 20MM Foundation Bill Bohnert Steve Hall Paul D. Rheingold Joel Mogy Brent and Linda Bradley Joyce and Fred Hameetman Sophie and Dane Ross Mary and Lloyd Morrisett Dominic J. Brewer Robert Hammesfahr and Susie Hasan Shirazi Catherine V. Mott James L. Brown Shaw-Hammesfahr Kenneth M. Simril Paul H. and Nancy J. O’Neill John Seely Brown George B. Harrison Kenin M. Spivak Timothy M. Pennington Ann W. Cahouet Ted Harshberger and Sharon Tom and Ellen Calcaterra Sharon Stevenson Mary E. Peters Novey Dr. Albert Carnesale and Robin His Excellency Dr. Kantathi PNC Financial Services Group Sarah and Paul Heaton Suphamongkhon Carnesale Carol Raphael Dr. Karen Hein Thomas D. Wright Cindy and John Carson Edward and Linda Rice Deborah R. Hensler Daniel Yun Jacqueline and Andrew Caster Michael Rich and Debra Granfield Jeffrey and Kim Hiday Howie Chandler, General, USAF Stephen G. Robinson $5,000–$9,999 (Ret.) Robin and Andy Hoehn Edward Saraffian Alan F. Charles Rand Hoffman and Charlotte Brad and Claire Brian Robinson Sean and Amy Sebastian Sharon K. Christie Bridgestone Europe Katie and Phil Holthouse The Speyer Family Foundation Daniel Cody and Kollyn Kanz Sara and Robert Cannon Debbie Hopp Sidney Stern Memorial Trust George W. Collins George N. Chammas Marjorie and Robert Templeton Marsha D. Hopwood Darlene and James A. Thomson Robert D. Hormats

22 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Dr. Leonora Horwin O’Melveny & Myers LLP Harold W. Watts Jennifer Kavanagh Dr. Mark Huberman Darleen Opfer Winnie Wechsler and Jeffrey Katrina Kelly Wasserman Jack Jacobs William A. Owens Chris Kito Marianne Weil, Ph.D. Leland L. Johnson Mari Pangestu Kelly Klima Dr. and Mrs. Duane E. Wikholm Howard and Betsy Kahn Kathleen Flynn Peterson Aaron Seiji Lowenstein Phyllis M. Wise Phyllis Kantar John D. Pinder Rachel Mauer LTC Robert Wolff, Ph.D., USA (Ret.) Lilly and Bruce Karatz Pittsburgh Child Guidance Murali Menon Foundation Bob Wright Jackie Keller and Phil Yaney Fred Moss Naveena Ponnusamy Loren Yager Tamara Turoff Keough Daniel Robb Molly Larsen Pratt Linda Tsao Yang Ann Kerr-Adams Justin T. Romano Premier America Credit Union Feng Zeng William E. Kovacic Kenji Suzaki Karen Reardon Rini and Arthur Kraus Kathryn Sprague Williams Farzaneh and Paul Rehmus NextLeaders Alan J. Laverson Breanne Williamson Daniel and Lauren Resnick Anonymous Chris Lawson Sophia Wrench Ann Rice Eduardo Arino de la Rubia Harry V. Lehmann Dr. Ronald and Linda Rich Jonathan Beutler Elizabeth R. Lesan and Katsuyoshi In Honor Ray Herras Nishimoto John Riordan Robert Adler and Alexis Bruce C. Levin James E. and Sharon C. Rohr Julie Kefer Deutsch Adler Bev and Don Lewis Mr. and Mrs. Louis N. Rowell Jennifer Mandel Barbara and Rae Archibald Marion and Louis Lipofsky Alice Coleman Schelling Ben Rekhi Grace M. Carter Cori and Richard Lowe Charles A. Schliebs Edward Richards DongSoo Choi Richard Lutomirski Margaret Schumacher Annie Tsai Natalie W. Crawford Makoff Family Foundation Nancy and William Scott Bart Friedman RANDNext Stephanie and Thomas Malayil Segal Family-United World Peter Haje Foundation Anonymous (6) Carol Mangione Steven Levine Arnold and Joan Seidel Daniel K. Abramson Donna G. Mariash Susan F. and Donald B. Rice George P. Shultz Brian J. Barclay The Markel Family Philanthropic Michael Rich and Debra Granfield Fund of the Jewish Federation of The Sikand Foundation Paola A. Buitrago Robert Tripp Greater Pittsburgh Ken and Marinette Simon Ricky Burgess Lynn Marks Victoria and Barry Simon Daniel Cox In Memory Susan L. Marquis and Christopher Lynne Slattery and Joel Schroeder Robert DeCou Bud Heumann J. Thompson Lois Slavkin, M.A. Tim Denton Fred Hoffman Linda G. Martin Roberta J. Smith, Matrix Planning, Vikram Dhindsa Leonard Horwin William Matthews Inc. Adam DiNardo Victor G. Jackson Ken McCrory Jed Snyder Judd Eberhart Kevin N. Lewis Lorraine McIntire Thea and Dick Stover Emily Francis Reid Morrison Newton N. Minow Cecily Surace Jayme Fuglesten Barbara Neff Leslie Mitchner Suzanne and Michael Tennenbaum Molly Godfrey Thomas Schelling Edward R. Muller and Patricia E. Ken Thorpe Bauer Justin Goldberg Gustave Shubert Michael Traynor Mary D. Naylor Gaurav Gupta Arthur Wasserman Marianne and Wesley Truitt Darryl and Loretta Nyznyk Tamara Kagel Susan Way-Smith William and Linda Tyrer David Karg John White Jack Ubinger Yuliya Karuchek Rhonda Williams Marsha Vande Berg Charles Wolf, Jr.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 23 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

The Pardee RAND Advantage

Founded in 1970 as one of eight graduate programs created to train future leaders in public policy, the Pardee RAND Graduate School is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the United States. It also has the distinction of being the only policy school based at a public policy research institute. At Pardee RAND, elite students from around the world learn the importance of methodological and analytic innovation, engage in a curriculum renowned for rigor and breadth, and are taught by faculty who are also RAND researchers. They conduct policy research with RAND mentors in on-the-job training, developing skills and sophistication that can’t be conveyed in a classroom. But it isn’t just students who benefit from this collaboration with RAND. Students infuse RAND’s environment with important new ideas and perspectives, generating new ways of looking at difficult problems, new methods and approaches for dissecting and rebuilding systems and processes, and new ways of outlining options and solutions. On the following pages, we share highlights from RAND research and analysis that benefited from the fresh perspectives, engagement, and sense of intellectual innovation of students in the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

To learn more about the Pardee RAND Graduate School, visit www.prgs.edu Heat-Wave Vulnerability for India

People living in the north-central plains of India—an area Their map, the first of its kind for India, identified ten known as the heat belt—face a potentially lethal threat in districts that are especially vulnerable to heat waves. the temperature extremes of a changing planet. Those districts—rural, poor, and socially disadvantaged— Researchers mapped heat-wave vulnerability across all lie within the sweltering central heat belt. By India’s 640 districts. Their purpose wasn’t to show where comparison, the map showed 20 districts with very the heat is most extreme, but where demographics low vulnerability, almost all of them on the better- and living conditions make extreme heat especially developed southwest coast. dangerous. Heat waves have caused massive numbers of deaths in Their data included the percentage of people who are the recent past, in India and elsewhere. In response, cities elderly, working, poor, or live in a good house. They and countries around the world have adopted heat-wave looked at socioeconomic caste and tribe, a substitute preparedness plans—but very few districts in India have. for race in the Indian context. They used satellite RAND’s map and vulnerability index can help policy- data to measure vegetation, and census data to makers and disaster planners better target climate- determine the percentage of houses in each district adaptation efforts. The need is urgent, the researchers with indoor drinking water (it ranged from 2.4 percent wrote: Climate change models project coming increases to 93.8 percent). in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves.

Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RB9974

Heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem, especially given several recent deadly heat waves in India. Our heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat.

GULREZ SHAH AZHAR Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Azhar was the lead author on this report.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 25 Veterans Health Care

As Congress wrestled with the future of the Affordable offset those reductions by seeking more care from the Care Act (ACA), researchers estimated what repeal of the VA health care system. health care law would mean for military veterans and the RAND estimated that demand for VA care among U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. non-elderly veterans would increase by 1 to 1.4 percent Nearly one in ten veterans under age 65 lacked any health nationwide. The increase would be largest in Medicaid insurance in 2013, just before the ACA’s major insurance expansion states with younger and lower-income veteran coverage provisions took effect. The act helped cut populations, most notably Arkansas, Louisiana, and the number of uninsured veterans by more than a third Kentucky. between 2013 and 2015 by creating health insurance The study was sponsored by the Robert Wood Johnson marketplaces and expanding Medicaid eligibility. Foundation and the New York State Health Foundation. Repealing the ACA would reverse those coverage gains. Congress did not have the votes to pass a repeal-and- The replacement American Health Care Act, which passed replace bill in 2017, but the debate about the future of the the House in May 2017 but failed to pass the Senate, ACA is far from over. As the debate continues, RAND’s would have removed more non-elderly veterans from study provides a starting point for understanding how insurance rolls than had gained coverage after the veterans would fare, and what it would mean for the VA. ACA took effect. Coverage losses following ACA repeal would lead older, Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1955 sicker, and lower-income veterans especially to cut back on health care from non-VA sources. They would try to

A better understanding of the ways in which health insurance and health policy changes can affect veterans is essential to set health policy in a way that avoids creating unintended consequences for veterans or the VA.

MIMI SHEN Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Shen provided statistical analysis support for this research, which was led by an economist and a senior policy researcher.

26 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Understanding primary care provider behavior is important in improving screening rates for military sexual trauma and interpersonal violence. Future initiatives for improvement may benefit from strengthening provider self-efficacy beliefs as well as enhancing provider opportunities for screening.

ADEYEMI OKUNOGBE Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Okunogbe provided statistical analysis support for this research, which was led by a senior behavioral scientist.

Improving Trauma Screening for Women Veterans

More than one in five women in the veterans health care The researchers found that care providers were more likely system experienced sexual trauma while in the military. to ask about sexual trauma or interpersonal violence when Almost as many report recent incidents of interpersonal they had more experience with women veterans. Those violence. who felt more confident in their care of women were also The numbers underscore the urgent and growing need more likely to broach those topics. Most of the providers in for primary care providers to screen their female patients for the survey were women themselves, and many expressed such traumas. Researchers surveyed nearly 100 care some discomfort with addressing mental health problems. providers in the Veterans Health Administration to identify But those factors did not seem to affect screening rates. factors that could help more women get the screenings The Veterans Administration, which funded the study, has they need. launched initiatives to improve comprehensive care for About two-thirds of the providers said they had screened women veterans. The survey findings suggest additional a patient for military sexual trauma in the past year. About training for doctors and other primary care providers could 60 percent said they had screened for interpersonal raise screening rates by improving their comfort with violence. Those numbers were much higher than typi- and confidence in addressing military sexual trauma and cally found in civilian care settings. interpersonal violence. Yet they still left room for improvement, especially with Learn more at www.rand.org/t/EP67297 women now the fastest-growing demographic in the veterans health care system.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 27 Our research suggests that small modifications in recruiting practices could increase the number of women who decide to join.

CHRISTINA E. STEINER Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Steiner helped conduct women’s focus groups, code and analyze data, and write the report as part of a team led by senior behavioral scientists.

Recruiting Women in the Military

The U.S. military has a historic opportunity to bring more for recruitment strategies better tailored to both genders. women into the ranks, but researchers found it still has some The military still has a male-centric image, some noted, and obstacles to clear first. female role models—in advertisements and in recruitment The opening of ground-combat units to women could usher booths—could counter that. in a “new era of equality,” the researchers wrote. Women Some women also raised concerns about sexual harass- make up around 17 percent of the armed forces, and each of ment and assault in the military. Many said it wasn’t a factor the service branches has made raising that number a goal. in their decision to join, but it was something their families The researchers convened a series of focus groups with or friends worried about. new recruits—male and female, officer and enlisted—to Male and female recruits and recruiters uniformly expressed better understand what that might take. Their research was dismay at the amount of paperwork, processing, and sponsored by the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense waiting that occurs during the recruiting process. Recruiters for Personnel and Readiness. They found overwhelming pointed out that women leave at a higher rate than men support for women in combat positions, as long as they met during that process. They speculated that shortening and the same standards as men. At least one or two women in streamlining the process could reduce losses in both almost every group volunteered that they wanted to go into genders, but could especially help to retain female recruits. a combat job. But one other theme emerged in most of the women’s Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1538 focus groups: the need for more women recruiters, and

28 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Israel’s War in Gaza

The Israeli military fought three major conflicts against Hamas ground operation. The U.S. military may face similar in the Gaza Strip between 2009 and 2014. Its experience challenges in its future urban conflicts. in the crowded streets of Gaza can teach the United States Other technologies proved more successful in Gaza. military some important lessons about urban warfare in the Active protection systems on vehicles protected Israeli 21st century. forces from Hamas’s rocket-propelled grenades, while Researchers interviewed Israel Defense Forces officers who the Iron Dome missile defense system shielded the Israeli participated in the Gaza operations, as well as dozens of civilian population from Hamas’s missile attacks and gave experts, journalists, and government officials in Israel. Their Israeli policymakers the political space to conduct a account of the three conflicts (starting with Operation Cast more limited operation. The U.S. military should consider Lead in 2009 but focused more on Operation Pillar of Defense investing in both technologies. in 2012 and Operation Protective Edge in 2014) shows the The Gaza operations unfolded under the glare of challenges Israel faced against a determined, adaptive, international scrutiny. Both sides made such effective hybrid adversary. use of social media that Pillar of Defense has been called The Israeli experience demonstrated the limits of air strikes the first Twitter war. As the Israeli experience shows, and precision firepower in dense urban terrain. Hamas modern militaries must also be prepared for “lawfare”— fighters were able to use a network of tunnels to maneuver that battle for public opinion and legal legitimacy— and evade Israeli strikes. Despite its technological superiority, when combating irregular forces. the Israeli Air Force struggled to detect and destroy these networks from the air, forcing Israeli forces to conduct a Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR1888

Through firsthand accounts of the wars in Gaza, we were able to provide important insights into the challenges of urban warfare and identify lessons for the U.S. Army.

ELIZABETH M. BARTELS Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Bartels researched Israel’s Iron Dome missile-defense system for this project, which was led by a political scientist.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 29 Legalization advocates have long argued that prohibition drives up potency, and that legal markets would naturally deliver less-potent products. We found the opposite happened in Washington, and that raises important questions about the public-health consequences.

STEVEN DAVENPORT Doctoral Candidate, Pardee RAND Davenport provided data analysis and management services for this research, which was led by an economist.

The Potency of Legal Marijuana

Cannabis prices in Washington State fell sharply, and At the same time, the labeled potency of the products— the market shifted toward higher-potency products, measured by levels of the active compound THC— after voters there legalized recreational use in 2012, increased. Sales of cannabis extracts for inhalation, such researchers found. as vape pens and waxes, more than doubled; by 2016, The state created a “seed to sale” system that tracked they accounted for more than a fifth of all sales. Even the information about every cannabis product sold in the dried marijuana in the market got stronger. More than state. With support from the National Institute on Drug 90 percent had reported THC levels greater than Abuse, researchers analyzed every legal cannabis 15 percent by 2016, well above national averages. sale in the system—more than 36 million in all. Washington has largely allowed the market to shape the RAND researchers had predicted in 2010 that cannabis price and potency of legal cannabis, the researchers legalization would lead to a large price decline. The noted. Other states could consider potency-based taxes sales data showed they were right: The average or THC limits to manage high-potency products until price per gram of dried cannabis dropped by more their health consequences are better understood. than 30 percent from May 2015 to May 2017, from about $11.50 to $7.50. Learn more at www.rand.org/t/EP67304

30 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 The 2017 Cohort

23 entering students 1 Middle Eastern dancer (also a ballroom dancer)

39 percent of the new cohort hails from outside 1 accordion player the United States 6 former or current U.S. military, including two special 9 countries of origin: China, Ethiopia, India, Israel, operations forces Mexico, Pakistan, Poland, South Korea, and the United States Proficiencies in 14 non-English languages: Amharic, Cantonese, French, German, Gujarati, 82 percent hold advanced degrees, including Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin, Polish, the MA, MS, MPA, MPH, and MPP Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Ukrainian

1 former foreign service special agent 1 Peace Corps volunteer (Guyana) Support for Incoming Cohorts 1 former game designer Full-Tuition Scholarships and Mentoring

1 research scientist for oncology drug discovery For the fifth consecutive year, all eligible incoming students received full-tuition scholarships in year one and partial 1 volunteer of the year recipient, San Diego tuition scholarships in year two. Scholarships help students County Library incur less debt as they move through their Ph.D. studies, 2 NCAA athletes (baseball and diving) and meet requirements quicker and graduate sooner.

1 yoga instructor (also founder of a yoga studio in Rwanda)

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 31 A Curriculum Focused on Public Policy Analysis

The Pardee RAND Graduate School aspires to be the The Ph.D. program consists of five elements: world’s leading Ph.D. program in policy analysis. • Interdisciplinary Core Curriculum. In the Our goals are first year, students complete a rigorous core • to produce Ph.D. graduates whose curriculum, covering mathematics, statistics, dissertations make important intellectual economics, operations research, political contributions to practical issues and whose science, and other social sciences. careers distinguish them as powerful • Analytic Concentration (optional). In the intellectual influences on public life second and third years, students may elect • in conjunction with RAND, to develop new to focus their studies in one of three analytic lines of teaching and research on some concentrations: economics, quantitative of the world’s most difficult challenges in methods, or social and behavioral sciences. security, poverty, health, and development • Policy Specialization. Students also • for the profession as a whole, to rethink specialize in at least one policy area, such what public policy means in a time when we as national security, health, education, no longer automatically turn to government energy and environment, labor and to solve all problems but increasingly rely population, economic development, or civil on partnerships between government, justice and regulation. business, and civil society. • Project-Based Research. Outside the The curriculum serves these goals, with a particular classroom, students acquire practical vision. Pardee RAND should be a place where some of experience as paid members of RAND the world’s most able graduate students come to work research teams, which we call OJT (on-the- on some of the world’s hardest problems, with the rigor, job training).

interdisciplinarity, and flair that characterize RAND. • Policy-Relevant Dissertation. Students And so the Pardee RAND curriculum tries to provide write a doctoral dissertation that combines (a) the best analytical tools from many disciplines; analytic rigor and practical utility under the (b) practice in applying such tools to real problems; and guidance of a committee of RAND faculty (c) a creative, sometimes experimental approach that and researchers. encourages new ways of thinking and doing.

32 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 New Courses

In 2017, the school added the following new courses. Public Economics and Finance. This course explores They contribute to a curriculum that conveys essential empirical evidence on the role of government intervention in the research methods and perspectives and teaches economy, focusing on tax and social program policies. students how to assess and improve systems rather Quantitative Methods with Applications in Technology than simply alleviate symptoms. Policy. This course covers quantitative methods for assessing the performance of sensor, communication, and computing system technologies, with an emphasis on applications to intelligence, Causal Inference for Policy Researchers Under Potential surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities of drones Outcomes: The Use of Propensity Score Methods. This used to fight terrorism. The methods also apply to the evaluation course examines the methods for estimating and identifying causal of similar technologies used elsewhere in the defense and effects using the potential outcomes framework. The class focuses commercial sectors. on observational studies—particularly those related to the method of propensity scores in the potential outcomes framework. Multi-Objective Optimization: Practical Use and Policy Participants debate theoretical and practical issues arising in causal Applications. Policy development and analysis often boil down inference as well as applications in public policy studies where to decisionmaking, and most decisions involve multiple objectives these or other methods have been employed. or goals, with various constraints. In fact, many decisions can be posed as multi-objective optimization (MOO) problems. Serious Gaming. This three-part course introduces students to This five-week course focuses on concepts and methods for gaming and game design. The first part introduces students to the MOO, using real-world policy applications ranging from use and history of serious games in policy analysis and compares human performance to national strategy. gaming with other analytic techniques. The second explores gaming as a methodology for specific policy challenges, with sessions Survey Design. In this course, students learn how to design, organized by policy problem and different gaming approaches to implement, and analyze an internet-based survey—building each. In the third part, students develop their own games to explore their capacities in sampling; instrument design and testing; a policy question of their choice. scale development; and survey management, budgeting, and contracting. Drugs and Policy. This two-week summer course offers students a foundation for understanding contemporary issues about substance use and drug policy. Topics covered include the rise in opioid overdoses, cannabis legalization, reducing substance use in community supervision settings, measuring the costs and benefits of drug consumption, and international drug control conventions.

Making Policy on Contested Ground: Navigating the Changing Relationship Between States and the Federal Government. Ongoing debates over voting rights, health care, immigration, abortion, and education underscore important shifts in the formal division of power between the states and the federal government. This course examines how judges and lawmakers are redefining federal and state roles. This dynamic federalism constrains some policy choices as it facilitates others, and understanding these changes is critical to defining effective policy recommendations.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 33 OUTREACH

Highlights from Capitol Hill

Congressional Testimony Congressional Briefings RAND experts are frequently invited to testify before Congress. RAND experts visit Capitol Hill to inform policymakers about research Testimonies are available at www.rand.org/testimony. Highlights from and analysis that is relevant to current legislative debates. Video and 2017 include the following: audio recordings of Hill briefings on topics ranging from Baltic security to health care for veterans are available at www.rand.org/congress Restoring the Power Projection The Weaponization of Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Information: The Need for Forces | David Ochmanek | Cognitive Security | Rand presented before the Senate Waltzman | presented before Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Armed Services Committee | the Senate Armed Services codirector of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center, addresses February 16, 2017 Committee, Subcommittee on the House Appropriations Cybersecurity | April 27, 2017 Committee, Subcommittee Deterring Russian Aggression on Labor, Health and Human in the Baltic States: What It Challenges and Approaches Services, Education, and Related | | Agencies in an April 2017 Takes to Win David A. Shlapak to Realizing Autonomous presentation on the presented before the House Vehicle Safety and Mobility opioid epidemic. Armed Services Committee, Benefits | Nidhi Kalra | Subcommittee on Tactical Air and presented before the House Land Forces | March 1, 2017 Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Understanding Russian Transportation, Housing “Hybrid Warfare” and What Can and Urban Development, Be Done About It | Christopher and Related Agencies | S. Chivvis | presented before May 18, 2017 the House Armed Services Committee | March 22, 2017 Creating Better Support for Our Nation’s Hidden Funding Considerations in Heroes: A Research Blueprint the Fight Against the Opioid for Military and Veteran Epidemic: What the Science Caregivers | Terri Tanielian | Tells Us | Rosalie Liccardo presented before the Senate Pacula | presented before Special Committee on the House Appropriations Aging | June 14, 2017 Committee, Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Jihadist Violence in the Services, Education, and Caucasus: Russia Between Related Agencies | April 5, 2017 Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency | Preventing Veteran Suicide: Colin P. Clarke | presented The Critical Role of before House Foreign Affairs Community-Based Prevention | Joint Subcommittees Rajeev Ramchand | presented (Subcommittee on Terrorism, before the Senate Appropriations Nonproliferation, and Committee, Subcommittee on Trade; Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Europe, Eurasia, and Affairs, and Related Agencies | Emerging Threats) | April 27, 2017 November 7, 2017

34 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Event Highlights

Senior vice president Andrew Hoehn and policy analyst Jirka Taylor addressed the need for a holistic approach to antimicrobial resistance.

RAND and the Michelson 20MM Foundation cohosted “Why Prison Education Matters,” a conversation on the effectiveness of programs like The Last Mile, which prepares inmates for reentry by providing them with marketable skills. KPCC correspondent Frank Stoltze moderated a panel that featured Last Mile founder Kenyatta Leal.

The RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy hosted “Pivot to Asia?” Political scientist Scott W. Harold (right) is shown with keynote speaker Admiral Sam Locklear, who served as commander of the U.S. Pacific Command from 2012 to 2015.

Broadcast journalist Warren Olney moderated a conversation about policy challenges in the Arctic featuring physical scientist Abbie Tingstad. One Night with RAND In November 2017, RAND hosted One Night with RAND, a fundraising event bringing together leaders in business, government, academia, and philanthropy to pay tribute to the seven-decade relationship between RAND and the U.S. Air Force. Held in Santa Monica, California, the event also honored the contributions of three individuals who have supported the Air Force–RAND partnership: Natalie Crawford, vice president and director of RAND Project AIR FORCE (1997–2006); Donald B. Rice, 17th U.S. Secretary of the Air Force and former president and CEO of RAND; and Susan F. Rice, a fundraising consultant who helped establish RAND’s development program.

Lieutenant General John Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, Air Force Space Command, toasts the evening’s honorees.

Michael Rich with the evening’s honorees, Susan and Don Rice, The evening’s presenters included Ted Harshberger, vice president and Natalie Crawford. The event marked their contributions and director of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and former Air Force both to the nation and to RAND. Chief of Staff Ronald Fogleman.

The event featured a panel discussion with former Air Force Chief of Staff Larry D. Welch, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, and RAND President and CEO Michael D. Rich, moderated by journalist and RAND trustee Soledad O’Brien. They discussed what it takes to get—and to give—effective and trusted advice for making decisions at the highest levels.

36 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Honoring RAND’s partnership with the U.S. Air Force

Natalie Crawford, Distinguished Chair in Air and Space Policy, has made significant contributions to national security during her more than 50 years at RAND. She led research in the early 1980s to determine the preferred characteristics of the next- generation tactical fighter. In order to better understand tactical air operations, she has flown missions in approximately 11 different aircraft.

In 1948, Project RAND became the independent, nonprofit RAND Corporation with RAND’s Air Force work as its nucleus. While RAND has grown from a staff of 200 serving the Air Force to an international research institution, this unique partnership endures.

Don Rice stewarded the RAND– Air Force relationship during his tenure as president of RAND and he later served as Secretary of the Air Force. Through their leadership and philanthropy, Don and Susan Rice have advanced RAND’s mission and they remain active The history of RAND and the U.S. Air Force is linked members of the RAND by the foresight of General Henry H. “Hap” Arnold, community. commander of the U.S. Army Air Forces. He helped establish Project RAND immediately after World War II to connect military planning with research and development decisions.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 37 NEWS

New Trustees

In 2017, the RAND Corporation Board of Trustees elected two new members: Mala Gaonkar and Michael E. Leiter. Gaonkar is a managing director and Leiter is a partner in the Washington, co–portfolio manager at Lone Pine D.C., office of the law firm Skadden, Capital, LLC. She is a trustee of the Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. Previously Clinton Health Access Initiative; Ariadne he served as director of the U.S. Labs; the Queen Elizabeth Prize for National Counterterrorism Center, during Engineering; and Tate, the institution that the administrations of both Barack operates the United Kingdom’s four Tate Obama and George W. Bush. In the art museums. She also is a member of private sector, Leiter formerly served the advisory board of The Economist. as president of the Defense Group In 2015, Gaonkar cofounded the Surgo at Leidos, where he led more than Foundation, a nonprofit “action tank” focused on the 8,000 personnel providing support to the U.S. Department behavioral effects of health and development. of Defense and allied nations around the world. He previously served as a RAND trustee from 2012 to 2014.

New Tang Chair in China Policy Studies

In 2017, RAND received a $3 million gift from the Cyrus and division of labor, currency, and China’s relations with its Michael Tang Foundation to establish the Tang Chair in neighbors. The Tang Institute, which will house the new China Policy Studies at RAND. The chair will support a senior chair, is part of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy scholar who will undertake research on the critical factors (CAPP) and has supported the RAND Chinese-language that will influence China’s future, particularly in education website, the development of new research initiatives, and and health care. joint projects with leading research institutions in China. A previous gift to RAND from the Cyrus Chung Ying Tang Cyrus Tang served on the CAPP advisory board from Foundation helped to create the Tang Institute for U.S.–China 1999 to 2002, after which time Michael Tang joined the Relations, which supports research on issues such as trade board, on which he remains an active member. and investment, intellectual property, manufacturing and

Cyrus Tang is Michael Tang is vice the CEO and chairman of Tang chairman of Industries and Tang Industries, CEO of National an international Material L.P. manufacturing and distribution company based in Las Vegas.

38 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 New Director of RAND Australia

Carl Rhodes is the new director of RAND Australia. He Training Program; and group manager of the succeeds Jennifer D. P. Moroney, who served as RAND Technology and Applied Sciences department Australia’s inaugural director. In his new role, Rhodes plans (the predecessor of today’s Engineering and to grow and expand RAND Australia’s social and economic Applied Sciences department). He has also been policy portfolio, while maintaining and strengthening its a prolific researcher, having worked on projects initial success in the areas of defense and national security. examining interdiction of armored ground forces; long-range strike; military use of commercial Rhodes most recently served as director of the Force space services and assets; Air Force intelligence, Modernization and Employment Program within RAND Project surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities; AIR FORCE (PAF). A 20-year RAND veteran, he has held a and the employment and modernization of series of management positions at RAND, including associate unmanned aircraft systems. director of PAF; director of PAF’s Manpower, Personnel, and

Notable Books by Distinguished Chairs

From Vietnam in the 1960s to In her book I Am Not a Tractor! the Afghanistan of this decade, How Florida Farmworkers Ambassador James Dobbins Took on the Fast Food Giants has worked to advance U.S. and Won (Cornell University national interests in some of the Press), Susan Marquis takes world’s most difficult and troubled readers inside the fight to situations. In Foreign Service: improve working conditions Five Decades on the Frontlines of in the Florida tomato fields, American Diplomacy (Brookings once some of the most brutal Institution Press), Dobbins takes workplaces in American the reader behind the scenes agriculture. Marquis describes at the Vietnam peace talks; the past abuses workers suffered darkest days of the Cold War; in the fields—toxic pesticide the reunification of Germany; the exposure, beatings, sexual collapse of the Soviet Union; and assault, rampant wage the U.S. military interventions in theft, and even modern-day Afghanistan, Bosnia, Haiti, Kosovo, and Somalia. Presidents slavery—and unveils how, even without new legislation, Clinton, Bush, and Obama turned repeatedly to Dobbins regulation, or government participation, the Coalition as a diplomatic troubleshooter with the right instincts and of Immokalee Workers wrested better wages and working experience to help find creative solutions for seemingly conditions from major tomato growers and their irresolvable problems. Now readers can benefit from his corporate buyers. insights, learning that, while specific situations in world affairs are different, the basic principles and techniques for Marquis is dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School defending U.S. interests on the global stage have a long and vice president of innovation at RAND, where she history and remain valid today. holds the distinguished chair in policy analysis.

Dobbins is a senior fellow at RAND, where he holds the distinguished chair in diplomacy and security. Dobbins joined RAND in 2002.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 39 Truth Decay

In Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life, political scientist Jennifer Kavanagh and RAND’s president and CEO, Michael D. Rich, begin the search for solutions to the collapse of civil discourse in the United States.

Kavanagh and Rich cite the immigration debate as a present- day example of the erosion of civil discourse. Without agreement on a common set of facts about the number of immigrants entering the United States, their economic costs and contributions, and the amount of crime they do or do not commit, it becomes difficult to have important policy debates and come to policy solutions.

In exploring earlier periods in U.S. history, the authors focus on three with similar hallmarks: the 1880s–1890s (rapid industrialization and economic inequality), 1920s–1930s (mistrust of banks and financial institutions), and 1960s–1970s (social upheaval, Vietnam War). They also identify truth decay’s four causes: humans’ natural mental habits; changes in the information ecosystem; competing demands on the educational system that limit its ability to keep up with changes in that information ecosystem; and political, sociodemographic, and economic polarization.

This is but the first of several projects on the subject at Truth decay and the RAND. Researchers will continue to analyze related trends in American life, such as the changing mix of opinion and polarization that drives it are objective reporting in journalism, the decline in public grave threats to America—to trust in major institutions, and initiatives to improve media literacy in light of “fake news.” our politics, our values, and

ultimately our democracy. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND It’s rotting away our public supporters and income from operations. discourse, undermining our Learn more at www.rand.org/t/RR2314 civic literacy, and we’ve even seen it inspire violence.

MICHAEL D. RICH President and Chief Executive Officer

40 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 On the Ground in Puerto Rico

The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) services; natural and cultural resources; governance and is part of an ongoing initiative to help restore essential services civic institutions; electric power systems and grid to the people of Puerto Rico in the wake of a 2017 hurricane restoration; environmental issues; and other infrastructure season that devastated the island. HSOAC is a federally systems. A congressionally mandated report that funded research and development center operated by RAND describes a long-term economic and disaster recovery under contract to the Department of Homeland Security. plan will inform the government of Puerto Rico, other federal agencies, the private sector, and local Over a six-month period, RAND researchers will be on the organizations in their concerted efforts to stabilize ground in Puerto Rico, providing in-depth analytical support Puerto Rico and enable a resilient recovery. to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as they evaluate housing; economic issues; health and social

RAND in the San Francisco Bay Area

In June 2017, Joint Venture Silicon Valley hosted a public lecture by Nidhi Kalra, director of RAND’s San Francisco Bay Area office, called “A Tour of Our Future with Autonomous Vehicles.” Kalra, a senior information scientist, spoke to a capacity crowd about her research and analysis on the policy implications of self-driving cars.

In addition, the San Francisco Bay Area office has hosted meetings with more than 60 thought leaders from the tech, policy, academic, and nongovernmental organization communities. RAND also hosted workshops related to Security 2040, an initiative of RAND Ventures that is considering the effects of political, technological, social, and demographic trends that will shape security challenges in the coming decades.

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 41 LEADERSHIP

OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL Michael D. Rich Andrew R. Hoehn President and Chief Executive Officer Senior Vice President, Research and Analysis Susan L. Marquis Dean, Pardee RAND Graduate School; Jennifer Gould Vice President, Innovation RESEARCH UNITS RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS Chief of Staff RAND Arroyo Center Melissa Rowe INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (Army Research Division) Vice President, Global Research Talent Timothy M. Bonds Charles P. Ries Mike Januzik Behavioral and Policy Sciences Vice President and Director Vice President, International Vice President and Jennifer Sloan McCombs Chief Financial Officer Hans Pung RAND Education Director President, RAND Europe V. Darleen Opfer GENERAL COUNSEL AND Defense and Political Sciences Director Carl Rhodes CORPORATE SECRETARY Thomas S. Szayna Director, RAND Australia Open RAND Health Director EXTERNAL AFFAIRS Vice President, General Counsel, Jeffrey Wasserman Economics, Sociology, and Corporate Secretary Vice President and Director and Statistics Winfield A. Boerckel Carole Roan Gresenz Vice President HUMAN RESOURCES RAND Homeland Security Research Division Director Allison Elder DEVELOPMENT Terrence K. Kelly Engineering and Applied Vice President Director, Homeland Security Sciences Open Operational Analysis Center William Welser IV Vice President RESEARCH SERVICES RAND Justice, Infrastructure, Director AND OPERATIONS and Environment Eric Peltz Anita Chandra Vice President Director

RAND Labor and Population Krishna B. Kumar Director

RAND National Security As of February 2018 Research Division K. Jack Riley Vice President and Director, RAND National Defense Research Institute

RAND Project AIR FORCE Ted Harshberger Vice President and Director

42 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 RAND Corporation Board of Trustees

Karen Elliott House (Chair) Michael Gould Philip Lader David L. Porges Former Publisher, The Wall Street Journal; Former Chairman and Chief Executive Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley Executive Chairman, EQT Corporation Former Senior Vice President, Dow Officer, Bloomingdale’s International; Former Chairman, Jones and Company, Inc. WPP plc; Former U.S. Ambassador Donald B. Rice to the Court of St. James’s Pedro José Greer, Jr., M.D. Retired President and Chief Executive Bonnie G. Hill (Vice Chair) Associate Dean for Community Officer, Agensys, Inc.; Former U.S. President, B. Hill Enterprises, LLC Engagement, Florida International Michael E. Leiter Secretary of the Air Force University, Herbert Wertheim Partner, Skadden, Arps, Slate, Barbara Barrett College of Medicine Meagher & Flom, LLP; Former Michael D. Rich Director, U.S. National Owner, Triple Creek Ranch; Former Counterterrorism Center President and Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Ambassador to Finland Chuck Hagel RAND Corporation Former U.S. Secretary of Defense James B. Lovelace Carl Bildt Leonard D. Schaeffer Joel Z. Hyatt Director, Capital Group Companies, Former Prime Minister of Sweden; Inc.; Senior Vice President, Capital Senior Advisor, TPG Capital; Founding Former Minister for Foreign Cofounder, Chairman, and Chief Research Global Investors Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Affairs of Sweden Executive Officer, Globality, Inc.; WellPoint Cofounder and Former Chief Executive Peter Lowy Richard J. Danzig Officer, Current Media, LLC Co-Chief Executive Officer, Senior Advisor, Center for a Westfield, LLC Trustees Emeriti New American Security; Former Lionel C. Johnson U.S. Secretary of the Navy President, Pacific Pension & Investment Harold Brown Institute Michael Lynton Kenneth R. Feinberg Chairman, Snap Inc. Counselor and Trustee, Center for Ann McLaughlin Korologos Strategic and International Studies; Founder and Managing Partner, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense The Law Offices of Chairman Emeritus, The Aspen Institute; Soledad O’Brien Kenneth R. Feinberg, PC Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Journalist; Chief Executive Officer, Frank C. Carlucci Starfish Media Group Mala Gaonkar Former Chairman, The Carlyle Group; Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Portfolio Manager, Lone Pine Capital Gerald L. Parsky Chairman, Aurora Capital Group Malcolm Gladwell Journalist, The New Yorker Mary E. Peters Mary Peters Consulting Group, LLC; Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation

As of February 2018

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 43 RAND Advisory Boards

Members of RAND advisory boards support RAND and enrich our research initiatives by adding their diverse experience, perspective, and knowledge to our efforts to improve public policy. Our advisory boards include distinguished individuals who have demonstrated leadership and a commitment to transcending political partisanship and ideologies.

Pardee RAND Graduate RAND Center for Asia RAND Center for RAND Center for RAND Center for Global School Board of Pacific Policy Advisory Catastrophic Corporate Ethics and Risk and Security Governors Board Risk Management Governance Advisory Advisory Board and Compensation Board Pedro José Greer, Jr., M.D. Robert D. Hormats (Chair) Advisory Board Tod Hullin (Chair) (Chair) G. Chris Andersen Larry Zicklin (Chair) Robert Abernethy Kenneth R. Feinberg (Chair) David Crawford Barclay Mart Bakal Lovida H. Coleman, Jr. William Benz Haley R. Barbour John Seely Brown Ichiro Fujisaki Robert Deutschman Christopher S. Brothers Sheila L. Birnbaum Jane Cavalier Stephen A. Fuller Robert J. Jackson Jr. Scott DePasquale Elizabeth J. Cabraser Michael Dardia Lalita D. Gupte Jack Jacobs Jacques Dubois Eldon E. Fallon Thomas E. Epley Benny T. Hu Arthur Levitt Addison Fischer Matthew Garretson Susan Fuhrman Zain Jeewanjee Bradley Lucido Adam Flatto Thomas V. Girardi Francis Fukuyama Benjamin Jiaravanon Lawrence F. Metz Hussein Khalifa Robert J. Giuffra, Jr. Patrick Geraghty Pin Ni Justin M. Miller Henry Kissinger Alvin K. Hellerstein Peter H. Griffith Robert Oehler Cindy Moehring Siobhan MacDermott Charles J. Kalil B. Kipling Hagopian William Owens Christopher Petitt Aria Mehrabi Jan Lane James B. Lovelace Mari Pangestu Paul N. Roth Peter Norton Stephen McManus Carol M. Mangione R. Ramaraj Kenin Spivak Mark Patterson Thomas H. Milch William E. Mayer Raju Reddy Steve Strongin Maya Seiden Frank Nutter R. Preston McAfee Kanwal Rekhi Neal Wolin Chad Sweet Thomas J. Perrelli Dana G. Mead George Siguler Chris Varelas Christopher A. Seeger Santiago Morales Kantathi Suphamongkhon As of December 2017 W. Weldon Wilson Kenneth H. Senser Soledad O’Brien Michael Tang Matt Wollman Stephen D. Sugarman Frederick S. Pardee Marsha Vande Berg Donald B. Rice Edward Wanandi Board Member Emeritus As of December 2017 Eugene S. Rosenfeld Keith E. Weaver Harold Brown Sharon Stevenson Linda Tsao Yang (Founding Chairman) Faye Wattleton Songyee Yoon As of December 2017 Daniel Yun Ex Officio

Michael D. Rich As of December 2017

As of December 2017

44 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 RAND Center for Middle RAND Health Board of RAND Institute for RAND Justice, East Public Policy Advisors Civil Justice Board Infrastructure, and Advisory Board of Overseers Environment Karen L. Katen (Chair) Advisory Board Ryan Crocker (Chair) John J. Rydzewski Dan C. Dunmoyer (Chair) Howard L. Berman (Vice Chair) Mary-Christine (“M.C.”) Ellen M. Hancock (Chair) (Vice Chair) Joseph P. Sullivan Sungaila (Vice Chair) S. Ward Atterbury Robert C. Adler (Chair Emeritus) Richard E. Anderson Frank Clark Goli Ameri Andrea G. Barthwell Theodor Bachmann Lovida H. Coleman, Jr. Nancy A. Aossey Otis W. Brawley Christopher Bogart Margery A. Colloff William F. Benter Peter Chiarelli Brad D. Brian Scott M. Gordon Alexander L. Cappello Michael J. Critelli James L. Brown Frank L. Holder George N. Chammas Susan G. Dentzer Robert A. Clifford Donald M. James Tarek Dajani David T. Feinberg Christine M. Durham Reginald L. Jones, III Diane and Guilford Glazer Jonathan E. Fielding Randall M. Ebner Terry F. Lenzner Philanthropies Robert G. Funari Kenneth R. Feinberg Julia Martin Howard Gordon Ken Graboys Deborah E. Greenspan Juan Carlos Navarro Michal Grayevsky Pedro José Greer, Jr., M.D. Deborah R. Hensler Sophie Ross Stephen Hadley Karen Hein Patrick E. Higginbotham Douglas J. Smith Ray R. Irani Susan Hullin James F. Kelleher Ann Kerr-Adams Suzanne Nora Johnson Eric S. Kobrick As of December 2017 Zalmay Khalilzad Howard A. Kahn Carolyn B. Kuhl Sharon S. Nazarian David Kirchhoff Susan L. Lees Younes Nazarian Joseph S. Konowiecki Charles Lifland John C. Novogrod David M. Lawrence Chris Lovrien Christopher J. (“C.J.”) Steve Metzger Consuelo B. Marshall Oates Edward J. Mullen Michael G. Mills Christopher Petitt Mary D. Naylor Andrew J. Pinkes Hussain Qaragholi Paul H. O’Neill Arturo Raschbaum William Recker Bradley A. Perkins Anne E. Rea Peter Richards Arnold L. Porath Paul D. Rheingold Hasan Shirazi Thomas M. Priselac Teresa Wynn Roseborough Donald Ellis Simon Carol Raphael Yona Rozen Todd M. Wilcox Scott C. Ratzan Hemant H. Shah Stephen Sands Larry Tawwater As of December 2017 Leonard D. Schaeffer John R. Tunheim Sue Siegel Georgene M. Vairo Gail L. Warden Anthony Vidovich Ronald A. Williams Dennis P. Wallace Phyllis M. Wise Neal Wolin Lynne M. Yowell As of December 2017

As of December 2017

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 45 President’s Council RAND Europe RAND Australia

The RAND President’s Council is a leadership RAND Europe is an independent, RAND Australia is located group of individuals who make significant not-for-profit subsidiary of the in Canberra, Australia. contributions to support the mission of RAND RAND Corporation, with offices and the efforts of its president and CEO to in Cambridge, United Kingdom, RAND Australia Advisory Board increase the impact and influence of RAND’s and Brussels, Belgium. research and analysis on public policy. Richard C. Smith, AO, PSM (Chairman) Members are part of a cabinet that provides RAND Europe Council of Advisors Jeffrey L. Bleich philanthropic support and advice to RAND’s Michael D. Rich (Chairman) Hugh Morgan, AC president and CEO to strengthen RAND’s Paul Adamson OBE Heather Ridout AO capacity to conduct research, analysis, and László Andor Phillip Scanlan, AM public engagement that help policymakers Carl Bildt Robyn Ward, AM address the world’s most important challenges. Dame Carol Black DBE, FRCP, FMedSci As of December 2017 The President’s Council consists of the Sir John Boyd KCMG following major donors. Philippa Foster Back CBE Máire Geoghegan-Quinn

President’s Council Florian Freiherr von Heintze Harold Brown Susan Hitch Frank C. Carlucci Michael Hoffman Marcia Carlucci David Howarth Rita E. Hauser Gunvor Kronman Jim Lovelace Gill Samuels CBE Peter Lowy Sir Gregory Winter Frederick S. Pardee CBE FRS Donald B. Rice Susan F. Rice As of December 2017 Leonard D. Schaeffer Cyrus Tang Michael Tang Charles J. Zwick

As of December 2017

46 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 Oversight Boards

These are the oversight boards for two of the federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) at RAND that are sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense. FFRDCs are nonprofit entities that assist the U.S. government with scientific research, analysis, and development.

U.S. Army Arroyo Center USAF Project AIR FORCE Policy Committee Steering Group

GEN James C. McConville Gen Stephen W. Wilson (Co-Chair) * Lt Gen Veralinn Jamieson LTG Thomas C. Seamands Lt Gen Jerry D. Harris Jr. LTG Robert P. Ashley Jr. Lt Gen Bradford J. Shwedo LTG Joseph Anderson Lt Gen Mark C. Nowland LTG Aundre F. Piggee Lt Gen John B. Cooper LTG John M. Murray Lt Gen Mark A. Ediger LTG Nadja Y. West Lt Gen Arnold W. Bunch Jr. LTG Gwendolyn Bingham Lt Gen Gina M. Grosso LTG Bruce T. Crawford Lt Gen Jack Weinstein MG David P. Glaser Lt Gen Stayce D. Harris LTG Charles D. Luckey Heidi H. Grant LTG Timothy J. Kadavy Kevin E. Williams GEN Robert B. Abrams (Executive Agent) GEN David G. Perkins Daniel R. Sitterly GEN Gustav F. Perna Darlene J. Costello LTG Kenneth E. Tovo Mark A. Gallagher LTG James H. Dickinson MG John G. Ferrari As of December 2017 (Lead Agent)

As of December 2017

*Second co-chair vacant

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 47 BY THE NUMBERS 2017

LOCATIONS | RAND’s North American locations include Santa Monica, California, the home of its headquarters campus and the Pardee RAND Graduate School; Arlington, Virginia; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Boston, Massachusetts. The RAND Gulf States Policy Institute is in New Orleans, Louisiana. Our 9 newest office is in the San Francisco Bay Area. RAND Europe is located in Cambridge, United Kingdom, and Brussels, Belgium. RAND Australia is located in Canberra.

50COUNTRIES | RAND attracts top talent 1,850STAFF | Our people bring a diverse range of from more than four dozen nations. professional, educational, and cultural backgrounds to their project teams. % 53HOLD DOCTORATES | Well over half our research staff 80LANGUAGES | Many of our staff are multilingual. of ~1,175 hold one or more doctorates in an array of disciplines. Languages spoken include Arabic, Chinese, Farsi, French, German, Japanese, Korean, Russian, and Spanish.

Research Talent

Arts and letters (3%) Social sciences (12%) Behavioral sciences (7%) Business and law (5%) Political sciences (7%) Master’s (38%) Computer sciences (6%)

Doctorates, including MDs Policy analysis (12%) and JDs (53%) Economics (11%)

Physical sciences (6%) Other (less than 1%) Engineering (9%) Bachelor’s (10%) Mathematics, operations research, statistics (7%) International relations (9%) Life sciences (7%)

48 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 900PUBLICATIONS | Last year, we added 460 RAND publications and 650NEW PROJECTS | Through more than 1,900 projects (including ~450 journal articles to our growing digital library—24,000 and counting— almost 650 new ones), RAND provides research services, systematic of reports, podcasts, videos, and commentary, which can be read or analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele. downloaded at www.rand.org

350CLIENTS AND GRANTORS | We performed work for more than 850DONORS | Gifts from donors help RAND deliver fact-based, 350 clients and grantors, including government agencies, international actionable solutions grounded in rigorous analysis. They help fund organizations, and foundations. our people, ideas, centers of excellence, and outreach. + 5WEB DOWNLOADS.5M 15TWITTER FOLLOWERS 0K

Revenue and Expenses

U.S. Department of Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense and other Staff development, information Homeland Security ($8.9M) national security agencies ($69.7M) technology, and other administration (15%) Other federal agencies ($16.4M) U.S. Air Force ($48.9M) State and local government agencies ($6.6M) Facilities (8%) Research and analysis (76%) Non-U.S. government agencies and international nongovernmental organizations ($13.9M) Fundraising (1%) Universities ($0.7M) Other nonprofit organizations ($5.2M) U.S. Army ($43.8M) Foundations ($23.9M) Philanthropic contributions ($9.9M) Private sector ($3.3M) Other ($1.4M) U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and related agencies ($66.1M) A complete copy of RAND’s financial statements can be found at www.rand.org/about/financial_statements $318.7M in revenue FY2017, net of subcontracts and RAND-initiated research

RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 49 Credits

For More Information About RAND ADOBE STOCK AP PHOTO/KAY NIETFELD COURTESY OF MALA GAONKAR p. 17 (left); p. 18 (top); p. 38 (bottom Flags at the UN headquarters in p. 38 (top left) WINFIELD A. BOERCKEL right); p. 39 (top); p. 41 (bottom); February 2016. Vice President, External Affairs Timeline (teen smoker; NATO; medical p. 6 (right) NATIONAL OCEANIC AND Call 703.413.1100 x5654 records) ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Email [email protected] AP PHOTO/MATT ROURKE p. 19 (left) AP PHOTO/CARLOS GIUSTI Iron workers help to build a new To order RAND publications A girl on the porch of her house, in front Comcast Innovation and Technology OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF Call 310.451.7002 or 877.584.8642 of electric cables knocked down by the Center in 2015, in Philadelphia. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Email [email protected] winds of Hurricane Maria, in Morovis, p. 9 (left) p. 38 (top right) www.rand.org Puerto Rico. p. 41 (top) AP PHOTO/IVAN SEKRETAREV RAND CORPORATION Russian marines march along Red p. 40; Timeline (Truth Decay) 2017 Annual Report Team AP PHOTO/DAVID GOLDMAN Square during the Victory Day military A recovering addict stands outside parade in Moscow, Russia, in 2011. RAND CORPORATION/RAND ARCHIVE DOUG IRVING an old church he is fixing up as a p. 7 (top) p. 37 (top left, top right, bottom left); Lead Writer community center in Hoquiam, Wash. Timeline (JOHNNIAC; Willis Ware) PETER SORIANO p. 5 (left) AP PHOTO/RAJESH KUMAR SINGH RAND CORPORATION/DIANE BALDWIN Design A man in Allahabad, India. The country is launching programs to protect people p. 2; p. 5 (right); p. 7 (bottom); p. 8 AP PHOTO/PABLO MARTINEZ TODD DUFT from extreme heat in two high-risk cities, (bottom); p. 9 (right); p. 15 (right); MONSIVAIS Production after a devastating heat wave killed at p. 17 (right); p. 19 (right); p. 25 (left); Carolyn Schapper in her home in least 2,500 people in 2015. p. 26 (left); p. 27 (right); p. 28 (right); STEVE BAECK Washington, D.C. Schapper was p. 25 (right) p. 29 (right); p. 30 (right); p. 31; p. 32; Manager, Corporate harassed in Iraq by a fellow Army p. 35 (top right; bottom left; bottom Communications National Guard soldier. AP PHOTO/WIKTOR SZYMANOWICZ right); p. 36 (left, center right, p. 27 (left) A group of pro-EU supporters bottom right); p. 37 (bottom right) gather outside Parliament to protest Follow AP PHOTO/JOHN MINCHILLO against Brexit. RAND CORPORATION/SARAH A participant writes on a message board p. 16 (left) FIELDHOUSE adorned with notes for loved ones who p. 35 (top left) took their own lives during an Out of AP PHOTO/ELAINE THOMPSON the Darkness Walk event organized by Children at the Creative Kids Learning RAND CORPORATION/MARIA MARTIN the Cincinnati Chapter of the American Center in Seattle. p. 36 (top right) Foundation for Suicide Prevention in Contents and p. 11 Sawyer Point park. RAND CORPORATION/DORI WALKER p. 15 (left) AP PHOTO/TED S. WARREN p. 33 The owner of the Cannabis City AP PHOTO/JIM MONE RAND EUROPE/MARK ELLIS recreational marijuana store in Seattle Sculpture of a wounded soldier on the p. 16 (right) stands behind his edibles counter. grounds of the Minneapolis VA Hospital. p. 30 (left) p. 26 (right) MICHAEL RAY p. 10 (left) army.mil AP PHOTO/MARK MORAN/ p. 28 (left) THE CITIZENS’ VOICE REUTERS/AMIR COHEN p. 29 (left) Wilkes University environmental GWEN BELL/computerhistory.org scientists and engineers are Timeline (RAND Tablet) teaching high school students about KAREN SAYRE p. 6 (left); p. 20 (left) being environmental stewards in BILL BENGSTON/army.mil their communities at a weeklong p. 8 (top) Environmental Science Day Camp COURTESY OF CYRUS TANG p. 38 (bottom left) at Frances Slocum State Park, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS the Back Mountain Trail, and p. 39 (bottom left) COURTESY OF MICHAEL TANG Wilkes-Barre River Common. p. 38 (bottom right) p. 20 (right) CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS p. 39 (bottom right) FRED WATKINS AP PHOTO/JOSE F. MORENO Contents and p. 34 A second-grader reads during a literacy class at the John Fenwick Elementary USC School in Salem, N.J. p. 18 (bottom) p. 10 (right)

50 RAND CORPORATION ANNUAL REPORT 2017 The difference between RAND in 2018 and the organization created in 1948 is substantial and dramatic. We started with one client—the U.S. Air Force—and over the past seven decades have enjoyed productive relationships with thousands of clients. The mix of studies, singular accomplishments, and streams of research and analysis included in this timeline exemplifies the range and originality of RAND research. The selections are by no means the only ways and not necessarily the most important ways that RAND has made a difference. But they reflect the breadth of an ever-diversified organization and reveal a common motif: our ability to have a positive effect on the world by applying rigorous and objective analysis to challenging problems. That aspiration has guided RAND ever since it was established. www.rand.org

The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.

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2017 RAND Annual Report, Santa Monica, Calif: RAND Corporation, CP-1 (2017), 2018 (available at www.rand.org/t/CP1-2017).