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High Frequency Survey Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized Findings from Wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey Report No. AUS0000407 April 2019 10042_Somali_CVR.indd 3 5/31/19 12:52 PM Report No. AUS0000407 Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment Findings from Wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey April 2019 56996_Somali_Poverty.indd 1 8/8/19 10:57 AM © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: World Bank Publications The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Fax: 202-522-2625 Cover photo: © Miranda Grant/Human Geographic. 56996_Somali_Poverty.indd 2 8/8/19 10:57 AM Acknowledgments This report was led by Utz Pape (Senior Economist, GPV01) and Wendy Karamba (Economist, GPV01). Substantial contributions to the overall report were made by Gonzalo Nunez (Consultant, GPV01) and Philip Wollburg (Consultant, GPV01). Chapter 1 ‘Poverty Profile’ was written by Gonzalo Nunez. Chapter 2 ‘Spatial Variation in Living Standards’ was prepared by Makiko Watanabe (Senior Urban Specialist, GSU13) and Nastassia Leszczynska (Consultant, GSU13). Contributions were made by Olivia D’Aoust (Urban Econ- omist) and Zishan Karim (Senior Urban Specialist, GSU13). Chapter 3 ‘Drought Impact’ was contributed by Philip Wollburg. Chapter 4 ‘Displacement’ was written by Andrea Fitri Woodhouse (Senior Social Devel- opment Specialist, GSU03), Verena Phipps (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSU07) and Ambika Sharma (Consultant, GPV01). Chapter 5 ‘Social Protection’ was prepared by Zaineb Majoka (Consultant, GSP01) with guidance from Maniza Naqvi (Senior Social Protection Specialist, GSPGL). Chapter 6 ‘Remit- tances’ was contributed by Sonia Plaza (Senior Economist, GFCAE) with inputs from Philip Wollburg. The team is grateful for inputs from Stephen Shisoka (Consultant, GPV01) and administrative support from Martin Buchara (Program Assistant, GPV01). The team is also grateful for inputs and comments from Pierella Paci (Practice Manager, GPV01) and Nobuo Yoshida (Lead Economist, GPV01) as well as the peer reviewers John Randa (Senior Economist, GMTA3) and Kinnon Scott (Senior Economist, GPV04). The Somali High Frequency Survey (SHFS) team was led by Utz Pape and comprised Gonzalo Nunez and Philip Wollburg. The survey was implemented by Altai Consulting in coordination with the respective statistical authorities. The team would like to thank the Director General Abdirahman Omar Dahir from the Directorate of National Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development of the Federal Government of Somalia for the close collaboration. Funding for the survey was received from the Somalia Knowledge for Results Trust Fund of the Multi-Partner Fund with additional contributions from Environment and Natural Resources (ENR) Global Practice to over-sample coastal areas and from the Somalia Country Management Unit to over-sample IDP host communities. Vice President Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director Bella Bird Senior Director Carolina Sanchez Practice Manager Pierella Paci Task Team Leaders Utz Pape, Wendy Karamba Acknowledgments iii 56996_Somali_Poverty.indd 3 8/8/19 10:57 AM 56996_Somali_Poverty.indd 4 8/8/19 10:57 AM Contents Acknowledgments ....................................................................... iii Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................. xiii Executive Summary ..................................................................... .xv Introduction ............................................................................ .1 Chapter 1 Poverty Profile ................................................................. .5 Monetary poverty............................................................................7 Inequality and vulnerable population...........................................................15 Demographic characteristics and labor markets ................................................ 19 Education..................................................................................22 Quality of dwellings and access to services ....................................................28 Multidimensional deprivations................................................................32 Chapter 2 Spatial Variation in Living Standards ............................................. 35 Urban-rural comparison .....................................................................36 Inter-urban comparison .....................................................................45 Policy recommendations ....................................................................58 Chapter 3 Drought Impact ............................................................... 61 The 2016/17 drought and its effects...........................................................62 Drought impact on welfare and livelihoods ....................................................66 Policy recommendations ....................................................................70 Chapter 4 Displacement ................................................................. .73 Displacement profile ........................................................................75 Poverty and hunger .........................................................................85 Access to infrastructure and quality of dwellings ...............................................87 Health and education .......................................................................90 Employment and livelihoods .................................................................92 Social cohesion, justice, and security..........................................................96 Policy recommendations ....................................................................98 Chapter 5 Social Protection ............................................................. 101 Sources of vulnerability at macro Level.......................................................102 Inadequate risk management capacity .......................................................104 Experience and impact of shock.............................................................106 Resilience building with social safety nets .....................................................114 Policy recommendations ....................................................................116 Chapter 6 Remittances .................................................................. 119 International mobility patterns ..............................................................120 Remittances at the macroeconomic level .....................................................120 The development impact of remittances at the microeconomic level ............................ 122 Contents v 56996_Somali_Poverty.indd 5 8/8/19 10:57 AM Remittance markets........................................................................ 129 Policy recommendations ................................................................... 132 References ........................................................................... .135 Appendix A Figures and Tables ..............................................................141 Appendix B Intra-Urban Analyses ...........................................................149 Appendix C Estimating the Drought Impact with a Difference-in-Differences Model ...............151 Appendix D Regression Results for Each Type of Shock ....................................... 165 Appendix E Methodology for Reduced Coping Strategy Index.................................. 167 Appendix F Displacement ..................................................................169 Appendix G Data Gaps..................................................................... 173 List of Figures Figure 0.1: Coverage of household surveys in Somali regions ..................................... 2 Figure 1.1: Somali households by type of population............................................. 7 Figure 1.2: Cross-country comparison of poverty in 2017......................................... 8 Figure 1.3: Cross-country comparison of poverty and GDP ....................................... 8 Figure 1.4: Poverty incidence ................................................................. 10 Figure 1.5: Map of poverty incidence from satellite estimates..................................... 10 Figure 1.6: Poverty gap .....................................................................
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