Title of publication: ANNUAL REPORT 2018 Year 29, September 2019 Published by: BANK OF SLOVENIA Slovenska 35 1505 Ljubljana Tel: +386 1 4719000 Email: [email protected] http://www.bsi.si The Annual Report is based on figures and information available by April 2019. This publication may not be reproduced in full or in part. The figures and text herein may only be used or published if the source is cited. ISSN 1518-2103 (electronic edition) Bank of Slovenia Annual Report 2018 CONTENTS A WORD FROM THE GOVERNOR 9 ABOUT THE BANK OFSLOVENIA 12 1 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 14 1.1 International environment .................................16 1.2 Slovenian economy ......................................18 2 BANKING SYSTEM 22 3 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BANK OF SLOVENIA’S TASKS 30 3.1 Bank of Slovenia’s mandate and institutional framework ........32 3.2 Monetary policy ........................................35 3.3 Microprudential supervision ...............................42 3.4 Macroprudential policy ...................................54 3.5 Bank resolution and the deposit guarantee scheme .............59 3.6 Other tasks of the Bank of Slovenia .........................63 3.7 Conferences, seminars and workshops. 72 3.8 Technical assistance .....................................73 3.9 Publications ............................................74 3.10 Media and other public communications ....................75 3.11 Education and training ..................................76 3.12 Bank of Slovenia library .................................77 4 BANK OF SLOVENIA’S COOPERATION WITH OTHER INSTITUTIONS 78 4.1 Cooperation with institutions in Slovenia .....................80 4.2 Cooperation inside the EU ................................84 4.3 Cooperation with international institutions ...................85 5 BANK OF SLOVENIA’SREPORTING TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 88 6 WORK OF THE BANK OF SLOVENIA 92 6.1 Decision-making bodies ..................................94 6.2 Work of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia in 2018 ...95 6.3 Audit Committee ......................................101 6.4 Report on the performance of the Bank of Slovenia in 2018 .....102 6.5 Court proceedings ......................................112 7 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF THE BANK OF SLOVENIA FOR THE YEAR 2018 114 7.1 Appendix .............................................150 7.2 Abbreviations .........................................153 5 Bank of Slovenia Annual Report 2018 TABLES Table 1: Significant banksand less significant banks. 43 Table 2: Supervisory measures imposed on significant anksb ......45 Table 3: Supervisory measures imposed on less significant banks in 2018 ....................................48 Table 4: Bank of Slovenia macroprudential measures currently in force ..................................55 Table 5: O-SII buffer at various banks, 1 January 2019 ...........56 Table 6: Bank of Slovenia’s contributions to the budget of the Republic of Slovenia over the last five years ......103 Table 7: Year-end balance sheet, 2014 to 2018 .................105 Table 8: Profit and loss account, 2014 to 2018 .................106 DIAGRAMS Diagram 1: Institutional framework for the functioning of the Bank of Slovenia at the end of 2018 ..............34 Diagram 2: Three-level system of lines of defence against risk at the Bank of Slovenia ............................110 6 Bank of Slovenia Annual Report 2018 FIGURES Figure 1: Contributions to growth in global GDP by various countries ...............................16 Figure 2: Comparison of GDP growth between Slovenia and the euro area ..........................18 Figure 3: Inflation in euro reaa countries in 2018 .................21 Figure 4: Total capital ratio at banks and comparison with the euro area, consolidated figures ....................25 Figure 5: Year-on-year growth in loans to non-banking sector ......26 Figure 6: Breakdown of bank funding .........................27 Figure 7: ROE, net interest margin on interest-bearing assets, and ratio of impairment and provisioning costs to total assets .......................................28 Figure 8: Bank of Slovenia’s overview of risks to the Slovenian banking system, 2018 ......................29 Figure 9: Inflation in Slovenia and the euro area, 2012 to 2018 ......35 Figure 10: Simplified Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet ........36 Figure 11: Interest rates of the ECB and the interbank money market, 2012 to 2018 .........................37 Figure 12: Irregularities and deficiencies identified at significant institutions in 2018 .......................46 Figure 13: Irregularities and deficiencies identified at less significant institutions in 2018 .......................48 Figure 14: Cap on DSTI versus net monthly wage in euros ..........58 Figure 15: Breakdown of counterfeit euro banknotes withdrawn from circulation, by denomination and year .............................66 Figure 16: Itemisation of costs by individual task ................104 Figure 17: Headcount at the Bank of Slovenia at year end (actual and planned) ..............................107 Figure 18: Breakdown of staff qualifications at the Bank of Slovenia, 31 December 2018. .108 7 Bank of Slovenia Annual Report 2018 A WORD FROM THE GOVERNOR Slovenia’s economy was again significantly stronger than the overall euro area economy in 2018. Economic growth has outpaced overall euro area growth since the end of 2013. It stood at 4.5% in 2018. Annual inflation approached 2%, as its rise on 2017 was driven by energy prices and stronger domestic demand, which was reflected in higher service price inflation. It was nevertheless not far off the euro area average, which helped to maintain domestic exporters’ price competitiveness on euro area markets. Despite the structural imbalances on the labour market, and slightly higher wage growth, the cost competitiveness of the domestic export sector also remained favourable. The balance of payments surplus remained large, external indebtedness continued to decline, firms and banks saw a further improvement in the quality of their balance sheets, and the fiscal position strengthened. As a small, open economy, Slovenia is deeply affected by the international situation, particularly in the euro area, which has begun to deteriorate. The uncertainties in the international environment increased significantly: trade disputes and political tensions worsened, having slowed growth in global trade and industrial production even last year. This was reflected in the structure of domestic economic growth, as growth in industrial production and merchandise exports slowed. Because the Slovenian economy is highly integrated into the euro area, its business cycle is also aligned, and it is thus particularly vulnerable to potential shocks in foreign demand. The situation in the domestic banking system improved again last year, although certain risks to financial stability are in evidence. The banks have high capital adequacy and favourable liquidity overall. The quality of the balance sheet is improving, although the process of cleaning up legacy non- performing assets is not yet complete: non-performing claims amounted to EUR 1.7 billion at the end of 2018, or 4% of the banks’ total exposure. The Slovenian banking system’s pre-tax profit exceeded EUR 500 million last year, while ROE stood at 11.1%. Here it should be noted that the profit was mostly the result of the net release of impairments and provisions, and would have been significantly lower had impairment and provisioning costs been at their long-term average. Lending risk is low, but there are indications of increased income risk and risk inherent in high real estate prices. Macroeconomic risks are now also being transmitted from the international environment. At the same time we are seeing lasting changes in firms’ behaviour, as in the wake of high profits they are decreasingly turning to banks for financing, while the banks are increasingly looking to finance households. Given this situation, the Bank of Slovenia was even more vigilant in monitoring the robustness of the banking system. 9 Bank of Slovenia Annual Report 2018 Given the increased uncertainty in the international environment, and the signs of a cooling economy, monetary policy remained strongly expansionary in 2018. Thanks to the achievement of stable medium-term inflation at a level of close to but below 2%, the key interest rates in the euro area were left at a low level in 2018, and there was a commitment to keep them at this level for a longer period. The net asset purchases were ended at the end of last year, while the refinancing of maturing principal was maintained in full. Together with the changes in the financing models of banks, firms and households, monetary policy is a decisive factor in the rising excess liquidity at euro area banks, including Slovenian banks, while borrowing terms remain favourable for the private sector and euro area countries. This was the environment in which the Bank of Slovenia acted to carry out its other statutory tasks. Our role in helping to shape and implement the euro area’s common monetary policy is increasingly being extended to tasks inherent in a single supervisory system and a single resolution system; all three arrangements apply the principle of centralised decision-making and decentralised implementation. The actions of the Bank of Slovenia also extend into current developments at other international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlements and the European Banking