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Empirical Studies on Cash Payments 43 JEANINE KIPPERS Cash Is Still the Most Common Means of Daily Payments

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Empirical Studies on Cash Payments 43 JEANINE KIPPERS Cash Is Still the Most Common Means of Daily Payments Erim - 04 omslag kippers 24-06-2004 16:35 Pagina 1 Empirical Studies on Cash Payments 43 JEANINE KIPPERS Cash is still the most common means of daily payments. The large number of cash payments is supported by a costly distribution system in which JEANINE KIPPERS retailers, banks and central banks participate. Currency is issued in a range of bank note and coin denominations to facilitate efficiency in cash payments. Empirical Studies The purpose of this thesis is to study the performance of a currency range in practice. It presents a number of empirical studies on cash on Cash Payments payments at the individual payment level, whereby cash payments Empirical Studies on Cash Payments are viewed as the outcome of a choice process. This type of analysis calls for labor-intensive data collection methods and the development of a sophisticated econometric model. This thesis introduces such a model for cash payments, and it reviews its application to three unique data sets of cash payments. The data concern payments in the Netherlands before and after the transition from the guilder to the euro in 2002, and payments in an experimental setting. The estimation results allow for an assessment of the use of different bank note and coin denominations in cash payments, and of possible preferences for one of more denominations. Currency research generally approaches currency use from a macro- economic point of view. The novelty of this thesis is that it contributes to currency research by focusing on individual cash payments. ERIM The Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is the Research School (Onderzoekschool) in the field of management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The founding participants of ERIM are the Rotterdam School of Management and the Rotterdam School of Economics. ERIM was founded in 1999 and is officially accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). The research undertaken by ERIM is focussed on the management of the firm in its environment, its intra- and inter-firm relations, and its business processes in their interdependent connections. The objective of ERIM is to carry out first rate research in management, and to offer an advanced graduate program in Research in Management. Within ERIM, over two hundred senior researchers and Ph.D. candi- dates are active in the different research programs. From a variety of academic backgrounds and expertises, the ERIM community is united in striving for excellence and working at the forefront of creating new business knowledge. www.erim.eur.nl ISBN 90-5892-069-0 Empirical Studies on Cash Payments ERIM Ph.D. Series Research in Management, 43 Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.eur.nl ISBN 90-5892-069-0 °c 2004, Jeanine Kippers All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the author. ii Empirical Studies on Cash Payments Empirische studies naar contante betalingen PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op gezag van de Rector Magnificus Prof.dr. S.W.J. Lamberts en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op donderdag 9 september 2004 om 13.30 uur door Jeanine Kippers geboren te Zoetermeer Promotiecommissie Promotor: Prof.dr. Ph.H.B.F. Franses Overige leden: Prof.dr. H.K. van Dijk Prof.dr. L.H. Hoogduin Prof.dr. C. Koedijk Preface In August 1999 I started the research for this thesis, inspired by the subject of currency use through my work at the Currency Policy Department of De Nederlandsche Bank. I discovered that bank notes and coins, commonly used by everyone, still hold many secrets. Little is known about their use in practice, while they are the most popular means of payment. To the best of my knowledge, De Nederlandsche Bank was the first to initiate a survey on cash payments in 1998. This survey produced a unique data set of observations on the use of bank notes and coins over the counter. This data set has proven to be an essential source of information in the preparation of the euro cash changeover in 2002, but has also been the major inspiration for the research presented in this thesis. During the last four and a half years I have combined this research with my regular work. De Nederlandsche Bank promotes its employees to actively participate in scientific research in the field of currency, or other subjects related to the financial sector. I am thankful to De Nederlandsche Bank, and in particular to Henny van der Wielen, Ton Dongelmans, Bram Scholten, Ton Roos and Wiebe Ruttenberg, for giving me the resources and the opportunity to work on this thesis, which I did partly during oce hours. If not, I would not have been able to finish this thesis now. Nonetheless, at times it has been dicult to make the necessary time available to make progress, especially around the time of the changeover to euro cash, a major project I was involved in through my work for the Currency Policy Department. Philip Hans Franses has shown great flexibility as my promotor. Although he had no control over the time I could spend on the research, he was helpful in trying to find a way to get the work done within a reasonable timeframe. His creative thinking has been inspiring. The highlights were most definitely the interviews Philip Hans gave on radio and local television in reaction to an article we published in ESB. In this article we stated that the payment system would theoretically be better og withouta1and2eurocent. The media attention evidenced the public interest in the subject of currency. Many thanks to Philip Hans for his guidance and enthusiasm in bringing about this thesis. I would also v vi PREFACE like to thank the members of the small committee, consisting of Herman van Dijk, Lex Hoogduin and Kees Koedijk for reading the manuscript and giving useful comments. Richard Paap coauthored our first paper, but more generally has been of great help. He was always willing to advise me on whatever econometric problem was bugging me, often through clear suggestions by email. Erjen van Nierop, another coauthor of the first paper, did much of the work that lies at the basis of the research presented in this thesis. Marielle Non, as a students assistent, has done great work on the experiments we conducted. And Merel van Diepen, Niels Tromp, Claudia Laheij, all econometric students, have also contributed substantially. They thought of an egective method to conduct interviews and observe cash payments, for which they spent many hours in retail facilities. My thanks to all. I have several colleagues to thank for, as they helped in many ways: Ger Bom, Gerbert Hebbink, Wilko Bolt, Carsten Folkertsma, Maria Demertzis and Joke Mooij. Friends and family, I am grateful for all your mental support. Lastly, but most importantly, I want to thank Jan Berndsen. He motivated me to start on this thesis, he urged me to work when work needed to be done, he made me relax when I needed it, and he has relieved me of many burdens to be able to work on this thesis. We have had long discussions that inspired me to go on with the research. He has contributed to this thesis in many ways. I dedicate it to him. Contents Preface v 1Introduction 1 1.1Motivation.................................... 1 1.2Empiricalcurrencyresearch.......................... 7 1.3Outlineofthisthesis.............................. 15 2 Theoretical issues 19 2.1Optimalrangeofdenominations........................ 19 2.2 Eciencyincashpayments.......................... 22 2.2.1 Cramer´smodel............................. 22 2.2.2 EuroversusDutchguilder....................... 24 2.2.3 Changingcoindenominations..................... 25 2.2.4 Changingnotedenominations..................... 27 2.2.5 Discussion................................ 29 2.3Behavioralaspectsofcashpayments..................... 30 2.3.1 Simplification of payment process ................... 32 2.3.2 Considerationsetsincashpayments................. 34 2.3.3 Towardsabehavioraltheoryofcurrencyuse............. 35 2.4Centralresearchquestion............................ 37 3Aneconometricmodel 41 3.1Preliminaries.................................. 42 3.2Thestatisticalmodel.............................. 45 3.3Parameterestimation.............................. 47 3.4Interpretation.................................. 48 vii viii CONTENTS 4 Empirical results I: the Dutch guilder 53 4.1Introduction................................... 53 4.2Data....................................... 53 4.3 Eciency.................................... 56 4.4Inference..................................... 60 4.4.1 Unobservedwallets........................... 61 4.4.2 Explanatoryvariables.......................... 62 4.4.3 Parameterestimation.......................... 62 4.5Estimationresults................................ 63 4.6Conclusions................................... 67 5 Empirical results II: the Euro 73 5.1Introduction................................... 73 5.2Data....................................... 74 5.2.1 Maindataset.............................. 74 5.2.2 Validationdataset........................... 76 5.3 Eciency.................................... 78 5.4Estimationresults................................ 81 5.5Conclusions................................... 85 6 Empirical results III: the experimental data
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