DOCSLIB.ORG

Od Las Vegas Do Wall Street. O Tym, Jak Pokonałem Kasyno

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Od Las Vegas Do Wall Street. O Tym, Jak Pokonałem Kasyno Tytuł oryginału: A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market Tłumaczenie: Przemysław Janicki ISBN: 978-83-283-8518-4 Copyright © 2017 by Edward O. Thorp Published by arrangement with The Robbins Office, Inc. and Aitken, Alexander & Associates, Ltd Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint and division of Penguin Random House LLC, New York. Random House and the House colophon are registered trademarks of Penguin Random House LLC. Polish edition copyright © 2019, 2021 by Helion S.A. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without permission from the Publisher. Wszelkie prawa zastrzeżone. Nieautoryzowane rozpowszechnianie całości lub fragmentu niniejszej publikacji w jakiejkolwiek postaci jest zabronione. Wykonywanie kopii metodą kserograficzną, fotograficzną, a także kopiowanie książki na nośniku filmowym, magnetycznym lub innym powoduje naruszenie praw autorskich niniejszej publikacji. Wszystkie znaki występujące w tekście są zastrzeżonymi znakami firmowymi bądź towarowymi ich właścicieli. Autor oraz wydawca dołożyli wszelkich starań, by zawarte w tej książce informacje były kompletne i rzetelne. Nie biorą jednak żadnej odpowiedzialności ani za ich wykorzystanie, ani za związane z tym ewentualne naruszenie praw patentowych lub autorskich. Autor oraz wydawca nie ponoszą również żadnej odpowiedzialności za ewentualne szkody wynikłe z wykorzystania informacji zawartych w książce. Materiały graficzne na okładce zostały wykorzystane za zgodą Shutterstock Images LLC. Drogi Czytelniku! Jeżeli chcesz ocenić tę książkę, zajrzyj pod adres http://onepress.pl/user/opinie/odlavv Możesz tam wpisać swoje uwagi, spostrzeżenia, recenzję. Helion S.A. ul. Kościuszki 1c, 44-100 Gliwice tel. 32 231 22 19, 32 230 98 63 e-mail: [email protected] WWW: http://onepress.pl (księgarnia internetowa, katalog książek) Printed in Poland. • Kup książkę • Księgarnia internetowa • Poleć książkę • Lubię to! » Nasza społeczność • Oceń książkę SPIS TREķCI Wstęp ........................................................................................................................7 Przedmowa .............................................................................................................9 ROZDZIAŁ 1. Z miłości do nauki ............................................................................................. 17 ROZDZIAŁ 2. Przez zabawę do nauki .................................................................................... 39 ROZDZIAŁ 3. Fizyka i matematyka ......................................................................................... 69 ROZDZIAŁ 4. Las Vegas ............................................................................................................. 89 ROZDZIAŁ 5. Na podbój blackjacka ...................................................................................... 95 ROZDZIAŁ 6. Dzień baranka ..................................................................................................113 ROZDZIAŁ 7. Liczenie kart dla każdego .............................................................................132 ROZDZIAŁ 8. Gracze kontra kasyno ....................................................................................150 ROZDZIAŁ 9. Komputer, który prognozuje wyniki ruletki ...........................................162 ROZDZIAŁ 10. Przewaga w pozostałych grach kasynowych ........................................178 ROZDZIAŁ 11. Wall Street — największe kasyno na świecie .........................................189 ROZDZIAŁ 12. Brydż z Buffettem ............................................................................................202 ROZDZIAŁ 13. A więc fundusz .................................................................................................216 ROZDZIAŁ 14. W awangardzie rewolucji ilościowej ........................................................240 5 Kup książkę Poleć książkę SPIS TREŚCI ROZDZIAŁ 15. Wzlot… .............................................................................................................. 251 ROZDZIAŁ 16. …i upadek ......................................................................................................... 263 ROZDZIAŁ 17. Okres dostosowań .......................................................................................... 273 ROZDZIAŁ 18. Oszustwa i zagrożenia ................................................................................... 288 ROZDZIAŁ 19. Kupuj tanio, sprzedawaj drogo .................................................................. 296 ROZDZIAŁ 20. Wożąc drewno do lasu .................................................................................. 312 ROZDZIAŁ 21. Niedopałek cygara .......................................................................................... 318 ROZDZIAŁ 22. Hedging czy spekulacja? .............................................................................. 327 ROZDZIAŁ 23. Co to znaczy być bogatym .......................................................................... 339 ROZDZIAŁ 24. Procent składany, czyli ósmy cud świata ................................................ 351 ROZDZIAŁ 25. Pokonaj inwestorów dzięki indeksom ..................................................... 358 ROZDZIAŁ 26. Czy można pokonać rynek? Czy warto próbować? ............................. 367 ROZDZIAŁ 27. Zarządzanie majątkiem i alokacja aktywów .......................................... 380 ROZDZIAŁ 28. Spłacanie długu ............................................................................................... 394 ROZDZIAŁ 29. Kryzysy finansowe — lekcje, których nie odrobiliśmy ....................... 401 ROZDZIAŁ 30. Garść przemyśleń ............................................................................................ 421 Epilog ....................................................................................................................430 DODATEK A Wpływ inflacji na wartość pieniądza w czasie ...........................................433 DODATEK B Historyczne stopy zwrotu ................................................................................436 DODATEK C Reguła 72 i pokrewne .......................................................................................439 DODATEK D Rentowność inwestycji funduszu Princeton Newport Partners .............441 DODATEK E Rentowność arbitrażu statystycznego dla pewnej spółki z listy Fortune 100 ............................................................444 Uwagi ...................................................................................................................446 Podziękowania ..................................................................................................468 Bibliografia .........................................................................................................470 O autorze .............................................................................................................472 6 Kup książkę Poleć książkę ROZDZIAĞ 8. GRACZE KONTRA KASYNO Kiedy moja ksiÈĝka Beat the Dealer pojawiïa siÚ na rynku, legiony wielbicieli blackjacka zasiadïy przy stoïach do gry w kasynach Nevady. Kaĝdy mógï przynieĂÊ ze sobÈ doïÈczone do ksiÈĝki karty z rozpisanymi strategiami gry i przystÈpiÊ do tego jej wariantu, w którym stawaï siÚ równoprawnym part- nerem dla krupiera, nawet bez liczenia kart. WĂród tych graczy byïy oczywi- Ăcie osoby biegïe w liczeniu kart, jak równieĝ tacy, którzy do tej biegïoĂci dopiero aspirowali. Wielu opanowaïo jÈ w naprawdÚ bardzo wysokim stop- niu, niektórzy mogliby spokojnie utrzymywaÊ siÚ z gry w blackjacka, ale dla wiÚkszoĂci opanowanie jej podstaw wymagaïo zbyt duĝego wysiïku i wy- trwaïoĂci, opanowania i dyscypliny, nie mówiÈc juĝ o odpowiednim tempe- ramencie. To byïy gïówne przeszkody na ich drodze do sukcesu. Mimo wszystko samo nagïoĂnienie faktu, ĝe blackjack umoĝliwia poko- nanie kasyna, przyczyniïo siÚ do gwaïtownego wzrostu popularnoĂci tej gry. W efekcie to wïaĂnie blackjack wyrósï na najpopularniejszÈ grÚ kasynowÈ w Stanach Zjednoczonych i w ciÈgu dwóch dekad zastÈpiï w tej roli nie- zwykle popularne dotÈd koĂci (craps). WïaĂciciele kasyn stanÚli przed nie la- da dylematem: czy powinni pozwoliÊ tej nielicznej grupie graczy, którzy opa- nowali technikÚ liczenia kart, wygrywaÊ z nimi w grze i powetowaÊ sobie (z nawiÈzkÈ) straty na tej przewaĝajÈcej wiÚkszoĂci, która nie opanowaïa tej techniki, czy teĝ moĝe powinni przedsiÚwziÈÊ stanowcze Ărodki przeciwko jej zwolennikom, nawet jeĂli miaïoby to wyhamowaÊ aktualny boom na tÚ grÚ? 150 Kup książkę Poleć książkę GRACZE KONTRA KASYNO Kiedy wïaĂciciele kasyn po raz pierwszy spróbowali zmieniÊ zasady gry i dobitnie przekonali siÚ, ĝe wyĝsze — dziÚki zmianie regulaminów — do- chody nie rekompensujÈ im straty przychodów z powodu spadku klienteli, bardzo szybko wycofali siÚ ze zmian. Z nowoĂci, które siÚ przyjÚïy, warto odnotowaÊ wprowadzenie tzw. butów, czyli specjalnych zasobników do utrzy- mywania talii kart przy grze prowadzonej wiÚkszÈ ich liczbÈ (czterema, sze- Ăcioma, a nawet oĂmioma taliami jednoczeĂnie). Zakïadam, ĝe gïównym celem wprowadzenia butów byïo utrudnienie liczenia kart. Nie musieli siÚ tym zbytnio przejmowaÊ gracze stosujÈcy system High-Low (por. dalej), po- niewaĝ strategia byïa mniej wiÚcej taka sama bez wzglÚdu na liczbÚ talii kart w
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The New Market Wizards Conversations with America's Top Traders Jack D
    1 THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS CONVERSATIONS WITH AMERICA'S TOP TRADERS JACK D. SCHWAGER HarperBusiness 1 7700++ DDVVDD’’ss FFOORR SSAALLEE && EEXXCCHHAANNGGEE www.traders-software.com www.forex-warez.com www.trading-software-collection.com www.tradestation-download-free.com Contacts [email protected] [email protected] Skype: andreybbrv 2 This book was originally published in 1992 by HarperBusiness, a division of Harper-Coltins Publishers. THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS. Copyright © 1992 by Jack D. Schwager. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information address Harper-Collins Publishers, Inc., 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. HarperCollins books may be purchased for educational, business, or sales promotional use. For information please write: Special Markets Department, HarpeiCollins Publishers, Inc., 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. First paperback edition published 1994. Designed by Alma Hochhauser Orenstein The Library of Congress has catalogued the hardcover edition as follows: Schwager, Jack D., 1948- The new market wizards : conversations with America's top traders / Jack D. Schwager.- Isted-p. cm. Sequel to: Market wizards. ISBN 0-88730-587-3 1. Floor traders (Finance)-United States-Interviews. 2. Futures market-United States. 3. Financial futures- United States. 1. Schwager, Jack D., 1948- Market Wizards. H.
    [Show full text]
  • Interview with Jim Edgar # ISG-A-L-2009-019.23 Interview # 23: November 8, 2010 Interviewer: Mark Depue
    Interview with Governor Jim Edgar Volume V (Sessions 23-26) Interview with Jim Edgar # ISG-A-L-2009-019.23 Interview # 23: November 8, 2010 Interviewer: Mark DePue COPYRIGHT The following material can be used for educational and other non-commercial purposes without the written permission of the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library. “Fair use” criteria of Section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976 must be followed. These materials are not to be deposited in other repositories, nor used for resale or commercial purposes without the authorization from the Audio-Visual Curator at the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library, 112 N. 6th Street, Springfield, Illinois 62701. Telephone (217) 785-7955 DePue: Today is Monday, November 8, 2010. My name is Mark DePue, the director of oral history with the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library. This is my twenty-third session with Gov. Jim Edgar. Good afternoon, Governor. Edgar: Good afternoon. DePue: We’ve been at it for a little while, but it’s been a fascinating series of discussions. We are now getting close to the time when we can wrap up your administration. So without further ado in terms of the introduction, what we finished off last time was the MSI discussion. That puts us in the 1997 timeframe, into 1998. I wanted to start, though, with talking about some things in Historic Preservation. Obviously, with myself and our institution— Edgar: Let me ask you a question real quick. Did we do higher education reorganization? DePue: Oh yes. Edgar: We did? Okay. DePue: We did. Edgar: I can remember what I did twenty years ago; I can’t remember what I did two weeks ago.
    [Show full text]
  • An Engine, Not a Camera Studies of Science and the Institute for Scientific Information, for Career Contributions to the Field of Science Studies
    MacKenzie_jkt.qxd 3/30/06 1:27 PM Page 1 economics/science, technology, and society Donald MacKenzie is Professor of Sociology (Personal Chair) at the University of Edinburgh. He was the winner of the 2005 John Desmond Bernal Prize, awarded jointly by the Society for Social An Engine, Not a Camera Studies of Science and the Institute for Scientific Information, for career contributions to the field of science studies. His books “In one lifetime modern finance theory has revolutionized the arts of canny include Inventing Accuracy (1990), Knowing Machines (1996), and investing. MacKenzie knows this exciting story, and he tells it well.” How Financial Models Shape Markets Mechanizing Proof (2001), all published by The MIT Press. Portions Paul A. Samuelson, MIT, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1970) An Engine, Not a Camera of An Engine, Not a Camera won the Viviana A. Zelizer Prize in . economic sociology from the American Sociological Association. “Having returned from an audacious incursion into the black box of modern How Financial Models Shape Markets financial markets, Donald MacKenzie shows how economic theory has succeeded in capturing and shaping them. This book will be of substantial interest to specialists in a range of fields including economics, finance theory, Donald MacKenzie economic sociology, and science and technology studies. But MacKenzie’s tour An h de force is to make clear, even to nonspecialists, that through complex tech- Engine, DDoonnaallddMMaaccKKeennzziiee nical issues, alternative forms of economic organization can be imagined and Not a In An Engine, Not a Camera, Donald MacKenzie argues that the discussed.” Camera emergence of modern economic theories of finance affected Michel Callon, Ecole des Mines de Paris financial markets in fundamental ways.
    [Show full text]
  • A Slightly Predictable Stock Market
    A Slightly Predictable Stock Market Is There Enough Reliable Information to Avoid Market Downturns? Blair Hull, Hull Investments, LLC February 1, 2013 Summary Over the past three years the author funded a research project to determine whether a diligent investor could avoid stock market downturns.Experience at the blackjack table suggestedthat a small amount of informationcould lead to superior returns. But the blackjack problem had since become well known and is almost trivial compared to the vast casino called the stock market.There were two research principles for “Avoiding 2008,” as the project was known within the author’s company. First, rely on research by academics and market professionals as much as possible. Second, use statistical research and simulation techniques designed to minimize the problem of hindsight bias.The author concluded that information can indeed be combined in an optimal way to achieve risk adjusted returns superior to those of a buy‐ and‐hold investor. _____________ Blair Hull founded Hull Trading Company in 1985 and served as the firm’s chairman and chief executive officer before selling it to Goldman Sachs in 1999. Hull went on to found Matlock Capital, and is now founder and managing partner of Ketchum Trading, LLC, a proprietary trading firm that trades and provides liquidity in futures, options, cash equities and exchange traded funds. He also manages his family office, Hull Investments, LLC. My experience at the Blackjack table provides an example of successful investing in a slightly predictable market, where a talented player can expect at most a three percent advantage (51.5% win probability versus a 48.5% probability of loss).
    [Show full text]
  • This Year's 40 Under 40
    20120326-NEWS--0050-NAT-CCI-CN_-- 3/23/2012 6:33 PM Page 1 ® VOL. XXVIII, NO. 13 www.crainsnewyork.com MARCH 26-APRIL 1, 2012 PRICE: $3.00 HEREHERE THEYTHEY ARE!ARE! THISTHIS YEAR’SYEAR’S 4040 UNDERUNDER 4040 DoSomething.org’s ALSO INSIDE ARIA FINGER Andrew Cuomo: ‘Her energy is almost NY’s take-charge guv? contagious,’ said a fan Or control freak? of the 29-year-old It all depends on MEET THEM ALL: Pages F1-F25 where you sit Action! Film studios 13 5 running out of space ELECTRONIC EDITION A not-so-wonderful NEWSPAPER turn for stellar bank 71486 01068 0 CN015034.qxp 3/21/2012 2:19 PM Page 1 I am Indian Point. I am Theresa Motko, one of 1,200 workers at the Indian Point Energy Center who takes personal pride Theresa Motko, 33, is an in helping to provide New York City and Westchester Electrical Engineer at the with over 25 percent of our power. That power is clean, Indian Point Energy Center. it’s reliable, and it’s among the lowest cost electricity in the region. We are New Yorkers. We are your neighbors, our Lately a few people have been talking about replacing children attend the same schools, and we support Indian Point with electricity from sources yet to be many of the same causes. For example, our employer, developed. According to experts, without Indian Point Entergy, proudly supports the U.S. Chamber of air pollution would increase, our electricity costs would Commerce’s Hiring Our Heroes program, whose increase, and blackouts could occur.
    [Show full text]
  • Insideadvan Tage
    INSIDEADVANTAGE Winter 2018 AGE T AN V AD INSIDE KEY INSIGHTS Don Wilson Blair Hull Blu Putnam P. 4 P. 8 P. 12 TRADE IN YOUR COMMUTE ADVANTAGE FUTURES Trade from the convenience of the western suburbs Downers Grove Trading Facility ü 1501 W. Warren Avenue ü On-site IT support Downers Grove, IL 60515 ü 24-hour access to facilities 312.800.7000 ü Workout facility, recreation lounge www.AdvantageFutures.com ü Complimentary parking [email protected] Disclosure Statement This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy commodities herein named. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 2 INSIDEADVANTAGE WINTER 2018 Winter 2018 CONTENTS 4 Cryptoassets Q&A Featuring Don Wilson, DRW 8 Q&A with Hull Tactical Asset Allocation Interview with Blair Hull 12 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group 17 Providing the world with access to Asia By Singapore Exchange (SGX) ABOUT ADVANTAGE FUTURES Advantage Futures ranks among the high Advantage Futures is a full clearing Follow us on Twitter volume futures brokers in the industry— member of the CME Group (CME, CBOT, @Futuresnews processing over 3.8 billion contracts since NYMEX, COMEX, KCBOT), NFX (Nasdaq inception in 2003. Advantage continues to Futures Exchange)u, ICE F tures U.S., ICE expand its diverse client base by striving to Clear U.S., ICE Futures Europe, ICE Clear deliver the highest level of client service.
    [Show full text]
  • Sentiment Analysis Brochure 23-24-June-2021-Online (22-June
    23-24 June 2021, Online Knowledge Partners Event Partners Professional Bodies Media Partners A www.unicom.co.uk 23-24 June 2021 Online Background Innovations in Finance and harnessing of Technology have resulted in making the term Fintech a portmanteau word. In the evolution of the BFSI sector Fintech has assumed a pivotal role; but it has also disrupted traditional order. The rise of AI and Machine learning has impacted many aspects of investment models and technologies at the same time it has disrupted some other. Applications of Alternative Data in Fintech are growing at a great pace; the question is how to discover new sources of alpha and create strategies and signals. Here the challenge is to discover hidden coupling of multiple data sources. Text analysis, Natural Language Processing and analysis of News, Micro blogs, investor sentiment are well established. Bringing all these advances together new applications in trading, fund management and risk control have continued to emerge. Today Fintech has influenced all aspects of the finance industry – banking and capital markets, asset and wealth management, insurance, and funds transfer and payments. There are three main themes for this Two-Day Online Event Theme 1: Disruptive Progress in AI and ML Progress in (i) News Analysis, (ii) Micro Blog Analysis (Filtered Twitter feed for finance), (iii) Online searches (iv) Data Analytics, Alternative Data and AI and Quant models DISRUPTIONS: Predicting the Market directions and ‘Timing the Market’ Other Topics: üNew directions of discovering Alpha in Low frequency Systematic Trading üOpportunities and challenges of machine learning in quantitative wealth and investment management Theme 2: Progress in Derivative Products üMachine Learning and Derivatives Artificial Neural Networks and Derivatives Pricing üExploiting Index Futures and VIX to construct Trade Portfolios Theme 3: Impact of SRI and ESG in the Investment Industry üThe Rise and Rise of ESG in the domain of Finance üMultiple Facets of ESG in finance.
    [Show full text]
  • The Zengrifter Interview
    Published at www.blackjackinfo.com The Zengrifter Interview - By Barfarkel Copyright 2004 - All Rights Reserved ------------- The interviewer, known as ‘Barfarkel’, is a serious recreational player who started with basic strategy in 1996 and learned the Silver Fox count by the end of 1998. He has been counting since early 1999. Barfarkel’s trip-report diary, You’ve Got Heat contains the details of his playing trips to Las Vegas over a 4-year period. This interview was conducted in March 2003. ------------------- One of blackjack’s most controversial and irreverent practitioners, known as ‘The Grifter’ or ‘Zengrifter,’ has granted a no-holds-barred interview in the hopes of providing us with a glimpse into 'the education of a card-counter,’ and to set the record straight on some of the controversy that has arisen about him in business and blackjack circles. A self-professed inveterate card-counter since graduating high school in Las Vegas in 1971, he pioneered the probabilistic-based speculative strategies that culminated in over $600 million in randomly awarded cellular telephone licenses by FCC lottery, in the mid-1980s, and made a few million dollars for himself in the process. In the mid-90s he and his wife developed an advanced ‘game-theoretic’ approach to winning PCS licenses in FCC airwave auctions that resulted in her company being among only 18 PCS license winners in the biggest cash auction in world history ($8 billion) and culminated in their meeting President Clinton and Vice-President Gore. In the late ‘90s his victories would sour amidst federal allegations of fraud and racketeering, involving the sale of more than $270 million in so-called “unregistered securities,” leading to a RICO-conspiracy plea and conviction.
    [Show full text]
  • T-H Basic Blackjack
    T-H Basic Blackjack By T. Hopper T-H Enterprises Las Vegas, Nevada Table of Contents Acknowledgments 5 The T-H Blackjack Series 7 Part One: An Introduction to Blackjack 9 Why Play Casino Blackjack? 11 Rules of Casino Blackjack 12 Typical Playing Strategies 14 Basic Strategies 15 Card Counting Playing Strategies 16 The T-H Instant Playing Strategy 17 How Card Counters Win 19 The Ace Count 20 The Five Count 21 The Ace-Five Count 22 The Forty-Five Count 23 The T-H Basic Point Count 24 T-H Instant System Reports 25 T-H Instant to T-H Basic Playing Strategy 27 Part Two: T-H Basic Playing Strategy 29 The T-H Basic Playing Strategy 31 Hitting and Standing 32 Doubling Down 33 Splitting Pairs 34 Late and Early Surrender 35 77 vs. 10 and Ace 36 Insurance and Even Money 37 Rules Variations 38 T-H Basic Playing Strategy Charts 39 Part Three: T-H Basic System Reports 41 Reading the Reports 43 Playing Strategy Gain 45 Single Deck System Reports 46 Double Deck System Reports 50 Four Deck System Reports 54 Six Deck System Reports 58 Eight Deck System Reports 62 System Report Summary 66 T-H Systems 3D Charts 68 Part Four: Other Topics 73 Table-Hopping 75 Bankroll Basics 76 Your First Session 77 Mini-Banks and Win Rates 78 Basic System Comparison 79 Other Resources 80 T-H Basic Playing Strategy Charts 81 Quick Reference Cards 83 Playing Strategy Practice Sheet 84 Appendix: Bushido Basic Blackjack 85 © 2001 T-H Enterprises ACKNOWLEDGMENTS To Richard Reid, who made this project possible with many hours of help in the early stages.
    [Show full text]