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MULTICENTENNIAL CLIMATIC CHANGES in the TERE-Khol

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MULTICENTENNIAL CLIMATIC CHANGES in the TERE-Khol Olga K. Borisova1*, Andrei V. Panin1,2 1 Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 2 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia 02|2019 * Corresponding author: [email protected] GES Multicentennial Climatic CHANGES 148 IN THE TERE-KHOL BASIN, SOUTHERN SIBERIA, DURING THE Late Holocene Abstract. Pollen analysis was carried out on an 80-cm sedimentary section on the shore of Lake Tere-Khol (southeastern Tuva). The section consists of peat overlapping lake loams and covers the last 2800 years. The alternation of dry-wet and cold-warm epochs has been established, and changes in heat and moisture occurred non-simultaneously. The first half of the studied interval, from 2.8 to 1.35 kyr BP was relatively arid and warmer on average. Against this background, temperature fluctuations occurred: relatively cold intervals 2.8– 2.6 and 2.05–1.7 kyr BP and relatively warm 2.6-2.05 and 1.7-1.35 kyr BP. The next time interval 1.35-0.7 kyr BP was relatively humid. Against this background, the temperatures varied from cold 1.35-1.1 kyr BP to relatively warm 1.1–0.7 kyr BP. The last 700 years have been relatively cold with a short warming from 400 to 250 years ago. This period included a relatively dry interval 700–400 years ago and more humid climate in the last 400 years. The established climate variability largely corresponds to other climate reconstructions in the Altai-Sayan region. The general cooling trend corresponds to an astronomically determined trend towards a decrease in solar radiation in temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and the centennial temperature fluctuations detected against this background correspond well to changes in solar activity reconstructed from 14C production and the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes in Greenland ice. Against the general tendency towards aridization, alternating wet and dry phases correspond well to changes in the activity of the Asian monsoon, established by the oxygen-isotope composition of speleothems in South China. Key WORDS: Late Holocene, short-term climate changes, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, pollen analysis, south-eastern Tuva Citation: Olga K. Borisova, Andrei V. Panin (2019) Multicentennial Climatic Changes In The Tere-Khol Basin, Southern Siberia, During The Late Holocene. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, Vol.12, No 2, p. 148-161 DOI-10.24057/2071-9388-2018-64 INTRODUCTION al. 2013; and other). They reconstructed the mean surface air temperature, using Many paleoclimatic studies over the last two a variety of land and marine-based proxy decades have addressed the natural climate data from all around the world. Overall, the variability during the present Holocene pattern of temperatures shows a rapid rise interglacial (Mann and Jones 2003; Mayewsky at the beginning of the Holocene, warm et al. 2004; Wanner et al. 2008; Marcott et conditions until the middle of the Holocene, Olga K. Borisova, Andrei V. Panin MUltICENTENNIAL CLImatIC CHANGES IN ... and a cooling trend over the last 5000 years. about 400 years ago. This reconstruction Figure 1a shows an example of temperature suggests significant adjustments to the idea anomalies record for the Northern of the climate stability of the Late Holocene. Hemisphere reconstructed by Marcott et al. As this large natural variability is likely to 2013 for the past 11,300 years. According continue in future, reconstructing the Late 02|2019 to this reconstruction, the Early-Middle Holocene climate is essential for better Holocene (11.3 to 5.0 calibrated kyr BP) warm understanding of climate variability, and GES interval was followed by ~0.7°C cooling provides necessary background knowledge through the second half of the Holocene for improving predictions of future climate (after 5.0 kyr BP), culminating in the coolest changes. temperatures of the Holocene during the 149 Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. Estimating the global or macroregional changes of the humidity of climate Comparison of reconstructions of during the Holocene represent an even multicentennial-scale temperature more complicated problem than that of oscillations over the Late Holocene reveals temperature, as the regional variation is agreement on major climatic episodes, very large. Based on palynological data, such as the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ and M.P. Grichuk (1960) worked out a general ‘Little Ice Age’, but substantial difference scheme of the humidity changes during in reconstructed temperature amplitude. an interglacial, including the Holocene. Thus, reconstruction of the mean Northern According to this scheme, within the Hemisphere temperatures for the past two warm middle part of each interglacial, the thousand years by Moberg et al. (2005) earlier thermoxerotic (drier), and the later shows much larger multicentennial-scale thermohygrotic (more humid) phases can be variability than most previous multi-proxy distinguished, their boundary corresponding reconstructions, including that by Mann and to the maximum warming (the interglacial Jones (2003) (Fig. 1b, c). According to Moberg optimum). On the whole, this pattern et al. (2005), high temperatures, similar to corresponds rather well to the reconstructed those observed in the 20th century before changes in heat and moisture supply during 1990, occurred around 1000-900 years ago, the Holocene in various large regions of and minimum temperatures that were about northern Eurasia by Khotinski (1977). 0.7°C below the average of 1961-90 occurred Fig. 1. Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions (a) Marcott et al. 2013; (b) Mann and Jones 2003; (c) Moberg et al. (2005). Temperature anomalies in a, b and c are with respect to the 1961–90 average shown by dashed line GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 02 (12) 2019 The large fluctuations in lake levels, and increasing humidity, which persisted monsoon activity, and regional humidity until 5.5-5.0 kyr BP. Later, a process of registered in paleorecords from different replacement of forest formations by regions indicate a considerable short-term steppe vegetation caused by cooling and 02|2019 variability of the hydrological cycle during increasing aridity is registered, especially the Holocene. Mayewski et al. (2004) pronounced after 2.0 kyr BP (Blyakharchuk concluded that the episodes of rapid et al. 2007; Blyakharchuk 2008). Analyses GES climate cooling in high latitudes of both of Chironomidae composition in the hemispheres within the Holocene were sediments of the Ak-Khol and Grusha lakes mainly characterized by an intensification in Tuva indicate four main climatic phases 150 of atmospheric circulation and increasing during the Holocene: cold and dry phase aridity in low latitudes, as the distribution 12.1-8.5 kyr BP, warm and dry phase 8.5-5.9 of moisture-bearing winds in the monsoon kyr BP, cold and humid phase 5.9-1.8 kyr regions and the carrying capacity for BP, and cold and dry phase during the last moisture in the atmosphere altered 1.8 thousand years (Ilyashuk and Ilyashuk dramatically. 2007). Based on the palynological data, Tchebakova et al. (2009) distinguished Climate changes in the mountain regions the following main climatic phases for of Southern Siberia and in the adjacent the Altai-Sayan mountainous region: cold regions during the Holocene and dry early Holocene, warm and humid climate 8.0-5.3 kyr BP, followed by cooling The mountainous areas of southern Siberia and drying, so that at app. 3.2 kyr BP the (Altai, Sayan and Tuva) are a key region climate was both colder and dryer than the for the analysis of the Holocene climatic modern one. changes in Eurasia due to their central location in the continent. They reflect the In the regions adjacent to the Sayan long-term dynamics of the main pressure and Tuva, similar climatic changes were fields in the Northern Hemisphere (changes reconstructed for the Holocene, including in the depth of the Icelandic Low and the most humid conditions in the middle the strength of the Siberian anticyclone), Holocene and increasing aridity in the associated with the strengthening/ late Holocene. Thus, based on the multi- weakening of the Westerlies and the Asian proxy studies of the Hoton-Nur basin in monsoon (Tarasov et al. 2000; Mayewski et northwest Mongolia, Tarasov et al. (2000) al. 2004). and Rudaya et al. (2009) reconstructed an increase in humidity of climate 10.0-10.5 Over the past decades, detailed data on kyr BP, when a transition from steppe to landscape and climate changes during forest steppe occurred in the area, and the the Holocene have been obtained in the beginning of rapid aridization at about 4 Altai-Sayan region and in adjacent areas of kyr BP. In the Baikal region, the transition Central Asia. from more humid conditions to more arid and continental climate took place 6-7 kyr In the East Sayan Mts., a decrease of BP (Bezrukova et al. 2014; Reshetova et al. temperatures and an increase in the 2013; Sharova et al. 2015). A somewhat continentality of climate started after 5.5 different sequence of climate changes kyr BP (Bezrukova et al. 2016). The authors was reconstructed for the area west of the explain these changes by weakening of the Baikal Lake. According to the palynological summer Asian monsoon, strengthening of data on the Khall lake sediments the Westerlies, and the decrease of summer (Bezrukova et al. 2013), 5 to 4 kyr BP the insolation. Further cooling accompanied precipitation in the region was higher than by an increase in the aridity occurred in today. A subsequent aridization reached the region about 2.5 kyr BP (Bezrukova et its maximum approximately 2.5 kyr BP. Dry al. 2016). In the southwestern Tuva, the conditions persisted there during the entire arid climate of the Early Holocene (12-11 Late Holocene, with the only increase in kyr BP) has been followed by warming humidity 700 to 450 years ago.
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