July 13, 2020

Thai Enquirer Summary

Economic News

 A report said Prime Minister is currently in the process of approaching outsiders to head an economic team to replace the government's current economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister .

 It is said that several prominent outsiders, currently serving as the government’s economic advisory team, emerged as strong candidates. Among them are 1. Boontuck Wangcharoen 2. Piti Tantakasem 3. Pailin Chuchottaworn 4. Setthaput Suthiwart-Narueput 5. Supattanapong Punmeechaow 6. Predee Daochai 7. Prasarn Trairatvorakul.

 Head of the Federation of Thai Industries – Suphant Mongkolsuthree, came out to say that there was a need for urgent need for Prime Minister to set up a ‘War Room’ to manage the country’s economy.

 FTI’s Suphant recommends that a similar structure be set up like the body that managed the Coronavirus for the economic recovery that would be responsible for revival of the economy

 The so called ‘War Room’ needs to be done as soon as possible.

 This war room should bypass the ministers and then order the permanent secretary and execute the orders right away.

 This is important move to revive the economy

 Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC), came out to say that the PM Prayut needs to announce if there is going to be a Cabinet Reshuffle or not because the govt. employees may go on neutral gear right away if they don’t know who their leader is going to be

 Kalin expressed his concern over political uncertainty following the resignation of the “4 angels”, Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana, Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong as well as Higher Education, Science and Innovations Minister Suvit Maesincee and Prime Minister’s Office Minister Kobsak Pootrakul, from the Phalang Pracharat Party.

 Kalin said the private sector is worried about political ambiguity over the government’s economic team. On July 10, the TCC proposed the government to

 1) Set up a post-Covid economic revival centre to find assistance measures for SMEs and tourism-related businesses;

 2) More measures to help SMEs are being considered such as extending moratorium and increasing liquidity. It is expected to use the budget of a 400-billion-baht loan fund to do so;

 3) Reduce financial contributions by both employees and employers into the Social Security Fund down from 4% to 1%;

 4) Open cross-border trade to allow exports of goods distributions;

 5) Demand amendments to outdated laws to keep up with current situations.

 Thousands more workers will continue to lose their jobs following some factory closures amid the Covid-19 outbreak as Charanchai Korsripitakkul, inspector-general at the Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, revealed latest figures of temporary closures of businesses.

 He said that from March to July 5 this year, 4,458 businesses temporarily closed, affecting 896,330 employees, a total of 247,031 days of closures.

 Charanchai said that between October last year and July 5 this year, 1,266 businesses temporarily closed, and affecting 20,696 employees. Workers were affected by the closures receive 365.5 million baht in compensation filed complaints with labour inspectors.

 The auto-part industry has the most impact and lay offs among workers.

 The latest research from Kim Eng Securities puts among the top countries in Asean region to see job losses.

 Bank of Thailand governor list seems to be completed now

 After a 15-day extension until July 10, 2020 there were 2 new candidates who applied

 One on July 9th and the other on July 10th

 The July 10th application seems to be the key one who may get the job

 Setthaput Suthiwart-Narueput was the last person to apply for the job and he has been on the Monetary Policy Committee and could be the person who gets the job of the governor of Bank of Thailand

 Setthaput has been on the advisory committee of the government as well and is a respected technocrat

 Anusorn Tamajai, director of business reform at Rangsit University and a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, voiced grave concern over a swift rise in debt and debenture defaults in the 2nd half of this year as businesses are disrupted by the pandemic, urging the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to extend debt principal repayments which is due to expire in October this year to at least 6 more months along with other supporting measures for capital injections.

 He is also concerned by the prospect of a rapid rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) of financial institutions and mounting public debt per GDP, Anusorn proposed to the Central Bank to come up with more measures.

 He warned that it would take at least 1-2 years for the Thai tourism to recover. Therefore, the government should not pin hope on tourism revenue to spur an economic recovery.

 Wuttisak Clinic, one of Thailand’s leading beauty clinic, seems to have gone bust after it filed for bankruptcy. The company that has as many as 120 branches across Thailand and the region, has filed for bankruptcy.

 Wuttisak was set up in 2002 and was sold out in 2014 to E For L Aim Plc (EFORL) for 3.5 billion baht. EFORL is a medical device distributor which wanted to diversify its revenue source.

 EFORL is majority owned by one of Thailand’s leading investor – Vichai Thongtaeng, who has investments in various businesses.

 The original owners of Wuttisak went on to set up Nitiphon Clinic

 Former deputy prime minister Prommin Lertsuridej, a co-founder of Care, a newly formed non-political group, proposed ideas on how to revive the country’s economy, touting Phuket as a model province for alternative state quarantine to promote tourism.

 During a seminar entitled “Rescue Forum: Tourism” held on July 11, Prommin made 2 proposals including:

 1) Seamless Travel Experience. This idea, he urged the government to speed up talks with governments from low-risk Covid-19 countries under a bilateral framework.

 1.1) Prommin also called for the scrapping of a 14-day quarantine period for most people arriving from abroad because the 14-day long quarantine impedes a recovery of the tourism industry, proposing the government to replace the 14-day quarantine with stringent covid-19 testing, to be done twice, and a quarantine of no more than 3 days.

 2) Opening Phuket Island as a pilot project of a “special economic- tourism zone. Prommin said the government should pay special attention to Phuket because it is one of the hardest hit, citing that the provincial island generates 420 billion baht in tourism revenue for the country. Therefore, it should receive most attention from the government. He touted the idea of seeking business operators’ cooperation to offer alternative state quarantine (ASQ) sites. This way will help the idea revive its tourism sector faster.

Political News

 Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is said to come under increasing pressure from the Saam Mitr (3 allies) faction following reported jockeying for cabinet posts. This started off with Industry Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit who is said to already bargaining for the energy portfolio.

 In fact, upheavals inside the Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP) are evident following resignation of the group of the “4 angels”, namely, Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana, Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong as well as Higher Education, Science and Innovations Minister Suvit Maesincee and Prime Minister’s Office Minister Kobsak Pootrakul.

 It is reported that 2 out of the 3 incumbent ministers are set to retain their positions

 There are reports that says that Minister Uttama and Minister Sontirat are set to remain in their position

 Only Minister Suvit is set to lose his position

 Saam Mitr is said to ramp up support for Deputy Prime Minister to take the party’s helm in exchange for a rotation of cabinet seats. Suriya had his eyes set on the energy portfolio from the beginning.

 However, there are reports that Phalang Pracharat Party director Santi Promphat, currently deputy finance minister, wants to swap seat to the energy portfolio. Santi is said to join forces with the faction under Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Thamanat Prompow in order to secure the energy portfolio. Santi and Thamanat proposed to offer the finance ministerial post to Suriya instead.

 The deal is that Saam Mitr is trying to secure the secretary-general post for Anucha Nakasai, another Saam Mitr key member.

 However, latest reports said Suriya and the Saam Mitr Group have denied Santi’s offer. Both Saam Mitr and the Santi-led faction are competing for the energy portfolio as they started to drum up support from Energy Ministry officials and meet up business operators in the energy sector.

 The Democrat Party held a seminar of party MPs and ministers in a hotel in Koh Samet of Rayong Province to strengthen unity among members. The seminar, however, exposed a further deepening rift inside the party following reports that a majority of the members of the party’s executive committee were not invited to join the seminar. This has caused them to grow agitated with the party.

 The seminar, which is said to be held to clear issues for MPs and party ministers, accentuated internal cracks in the party after party executive committee members and even party registrar have not been invited, a source with the party said.

 This is a clear indication that the party remains divided as senior party figures favour their close associates. The source said conflicts in the party continues to deepen with no end in sight after Anwar Saleh, a Pattani MP and deputy secretary-general, told party senior members at the seminar that ongoing internal problems would not be tackled properly as long as the members of the executive committee are not allowed to take part in finding solutions to conflicts inside the party.

 It will be interesting to see what the party’s annual general meeting (AGM) on July 19 will lead to. The Democrat Party is set to hold an AGM at 09.30 hrs on the day at Rama Garden Hotel on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road in .

 The planned AGM is expected to address problems facing the party, especially the problem arisen from reports that senior party members and party ministers failed to look after MPs who missed out on seats in the general election but care only for those who were given seats in the government.

 The Progressive Movement is gearing for local elections, claiming that local polls nationwide and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) will be held on December 13.

 Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, as secretary-general of the Progressive Movement, yesterday (July 12) held a campaign at the Doi Saket Agricultural Cooperatives to recruit candidates for the upcoming local polls.

 Chamnan Chanruang, former deputy leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party, announced before community leaders in Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang, Prae, Nan, Payao and Mae Hong Son, that local polls at the provincial administration organisation (PAO) level and BMA might be held on December 13 before others.

 The Election Commission (EC) is fighting back against Democrat Party deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat following Nipit’s press conference on June 29 accusing that all 7 EC members of negligence of duty under Section 157 of the Criminal Code after the poll agency dismissed an electoral fraud case against a Bhumjai Thai Party MP who beat him by a landslide in the constituency 2 of Phatthalung during the general election.

 The EC insisted that its endorsement of the winning candidate in Phatthalung’s constituency 2 is legitimate. The EC considers a criminal defamation case against Nipit following his defamatory statement against it on June 29.

 The EC’s meeting resolved that it will file a libel case with the Central Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases at 3.30 hrs today (July 13).

 A majority of people had negative views against ministers who are former core leaders of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PRDC), according to a new Super Poll survey.

 The poll asked 2,203 respondents from July 5 to 11 about their views on “possible aftermaths of cabinet reshuffle news” which have dominated news media coverage of politics in recent days.

 A majority of respondents, 90.8% said they want to see core PDRC leaders who have positions in the current Cabinet removed, citing that this group is a source of conflicts and turmoil. They are also thought to be jockeying for cabinet positions amid people’s hardship.

 Asked about the Progressive Movement’s “May day May day” online fund- raising concert, a majority of respondents, 75.3%, said the event had negatively affected the Kao Klai [Move Forward] Party.

 When asked about Kao Klai’s popularity if the general election is to be held today, the party’s popularity dropped from 16.7% to 6.9% while the percentage of people who said they would not vote for the party rose to 93.1% from 83.3%.

 Meanwhile, a majority of people do not think the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle would help improve the government’s performance, according to a survey by the Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, or Suan Dusit Poll.

 A majority of people, 67.85%, said it is now time for changes to be made to the current Cabinet line-up, reasoning that the overall economy was not in good shape, the cost of living, unemployment and debt are on the rise; talented people should be given the opportunity to solve the country’s problems. Another 23.40% were ambivalent about a reshuffle, saying it was up to the prime minister, and 8.75% said it was not yet time for a reshuffle as there are still other important issues to be resolved.

 When asked about their satisfaction over the government’s overall performance, 61.15% pointed to its overall work to solve economic problems; 22.85% its measures to address the high cost of living and poverty; 13.80% said the distribution of assistance money was slow and not for everyone.

 The poll was conducted on July 8-11 on 1,269 people throughout the country after a cabinet reshuffle became a hot topic for discussion among the public after the government under Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha completed its first year in office on July 10.

 Former energy minister Pichai Naripthaphan, a vocal critic of the government, demanded the government to bring in professionals and talented people to solve economic challenges facing the country.

 Pichai said a cabinet reshuffle would not improve Thailand’s economic situation. The best way is to change the government’s leader.

 He said the government lacks legitimacy to govern the country, especially the 4 ministers of the Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP), namely, Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana, Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong as well as Higher Education, Science and Innovations Minister Suvit

Maesincee and Prime Minister’s Office Minister Kobsak Pootrakul, who resigned as PPRP members, failed to solve economic problems and tattering Thai exports.

General News

 The government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) reported 1 new case of Covid-19 over a 24-hour period.

 The new confirmed case is a 39-year-old male who had returned from Japan on June 30 and tested positive on July 10 without showing any symptoms.

 The total number of cases in Thailand since the outbreak has risen to 3,217 -- 3,088 patients have recovered and been discharged with 58 fatalities.

 Globally the numbers have reached 13 million and the United States counties to witness very high numbers. On Saturday (which was Friday’s numbers) the US saw 71,787 new cases and over the weekend the numbers were low (typical of the US that shows low numbers on weekend).

Political News Headlines in Thai Media

 The editorial staff of Thai Enquirer would like to express its solidarity and support of Al Jazeera staff in Malaysia currently being persecuted by the Malaysian government over their document on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the migrant worker community in Malaysia.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/15436/thai-enquirer-stands-with-the-staff-of-al- jazeera-in-malaysia/

 Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is pleased with the improvement in Thailand's ranking from 73rd in 2018 to 57th on the E-government Development Index.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391172?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral  The ruling has appointed 10 new deputy party leaders and replaced its spokesmen.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1949768/ten-deputies-chosen- at-pprp-party-meeting

 The Kao Klai Party (KKP) on Friday pledged to field a candidate in the much-awaited Bangkok governor election and establish a presence in all 50 districts of the capital.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1949416/kao-klai-party-eyes- city-governor-poll

 The Democrat Party has not been told about a cabinet reshuffle which might decide its fate in the government, said the party leader Jurin Laksanawisit.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1949804/democrats-in-the- dark-over-likely-reshuffle

 Former prime minister has criticised the government for what he sees as lack of improvement in people's livelihoods despite public expectations to have a solid welfare system in the kingdom.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1949752/former-premier- champions-welfare-state-idea

 Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has hinted that he is prepared to accept his fate if Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha decides to reshuffle the cabinet.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1949356/somkid-hints-hell- accept-chop

 The outing Transport Ministry permanent secretary will propose to the minister three names as his replacement when he retires.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391152?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral

 PM gives thumbs up for rise in Thailand's ranking in e-government development

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391172?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral  The Association of Secondary School Administrators has threatened to boycott the opposition Kao Klai party, unless one of its MPs offers a public apology and retracts his allegedly offensive remark against a school teacher who cut the hair of a student.

o Link- https://www.thaipbsworld.com/school-administrators-threaten-boycott-of-kao- klai-party-over-haircut-conflict/

Economic News Headlines in Thai Media

 International tourism is possible with proper management system while travel bubbles for foreign tourists is a must, experts from the medical and tourism sector said at CARE Group’s tourism forum on Saturday.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/15466/care-group-says-international-travel-is- possible-with-right-precaution-and-necessary-for-businesses-to-keep-the-light-on/

 The government has set up an economic recovery center following the outbreak of the coronavirus, a government official said on Friday.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/15455/the-government-accepts-private-sectors- proposal-to-set-up-an-economic-recovery-center/

 Somkid Jatusripitak, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of economic affairs, said on Friday that he has been ready for a possible cabinet reshuffle since 2019.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/15449/somkid-ready-for-cabinet-reshuffle-and- all-eventualities/

 About one-third of tourism business operators in Thailand will run out of liquidity to keep their businesses afloat in the second half of 2020, Tourism Council of Thailand president Chairat Trirattanajarasporn has warned.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391136?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral

 The Thai economy stares at an uncertain future because the Covid-19 outbreak is likely to prolong until the first half of 2021, Krungthai Bank (KTB) said.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30391137?utm_source=category&utm_me dium=internal_referral

 Four major players in the transport system have picked up bid documents for the MRT Orange Line which runs from Bang Khun Non to Min Buri.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30391091?utm_source=category&utm_me dium=internal_referral

 Setthaput Suthiwart-Narueput, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee and the prime minister's advisory team, has joined the race for the top job at the Bank of Thailand, bringing the number of contenders to six.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1949464/setthaput-latest-to-vie-for- bot-post

 The government looks set to establish a centre to handle the country's economic rehabilitation from the coronavirus.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1949424/govt-to-create-economic- recovery-task-force

 Despite lower interest rates this year, bank deposits have risen sharply as investors have stayed away from investment in risk assets.

o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30391186?utm_source=category&utm_me dium=internal_referral

Issues to be watched out for

 July 2020 – The Expressway of Thailand (EXAT)’s planned opening schedule of the new Motorway Route 7 Section from Pattaya to Map Ta Phut.

 July 19, 2020 – The Democrat Party is set to hold an annual general meeting (AGM).

 July 29, 2020 – The Federation of Thai Industries is set to hold the 2020 annual general meeting (AGM) to pick a new chairman after postponement from March 30 this year.  July 31, 2020 – The government is expected to lift lockdown restrictions imposed under the emergency decree.

 July 31, 2020 – The reshuffle list of senior army officers is expected to be presented by the armed forces chiefs at the Defense Council Meeting chaired by Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.  August 17, 2020 – The first day of hearings for Thai Airways International Plc (THAI)’s bankruptcy case.

 August 17, 2020 – The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC, formerly known as the National Economic and Social Development Board or NESBD) is scheduled to release 2nd quarter GDP data.

 August 29, 2020 – The deadline for farmers to return the banned agri-chemicals, paraquat and chlorpyrifos, in their possession to sellers.

 September 2020 – Recruitment of new board members of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunication Commission (NBTC) is set to kick off.

 September 21, 2020 – The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC, formerly known as the National Economic and Social Development Board or NESDB) is to revise the 20-year national strategy at an annual meeting to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.

 September 30, 2020 – The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is set to extend the revised equity short-selling regulations from June 30 to September 30 as stock market volatility remains high in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 October, 2020 – The bidding for construction and operation for the 140-billion-baht Orange Line western extension linking the Thailand Cultural Centre with Bang Khun Non.

 October, 2020 – The Thailand Grand Prix was rescheduled after being postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Key Data

SET Index 1,350.50 -15.31

 Link - https://www.set.or.th/en/company/ipo/upcoming_ipo_set.html

Global Commodities

 Metal -Link http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/metals/

 Energy -Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

 Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Global Equity Market’s Movements

 Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific/

Asian Equity Markets Movement

 Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/

Information on July 10, 2020

Buying, Selling or Transfer of shares by Owners/Management

Stock Code Volume Value Action

AP 100,000 6.3 Sale BOL 228,800 3.54 Sale CCET 300,000 1.9 Sale CHAYO 1,123,664 6.96 Sale

CHAYO 45 1.35 Sale CPALL 200,000 66 Purchase EP 300,000 3.7 Purchase

EKH 100,000 4.36 Sale SUTHA 8,100 3.38 Purchase SUTHA 1,900 3.36 Purchase JMART 2,401 4.7 Sale JMART 2,401 4.32 Sale MJD 637,300 1.66 Sale KOOL 1,619,100 0.88 Purchase MBAX 20,800 4.66 Purchase ORI 25,000 6.15 Sale RJH 2,000 21.9 Sale RS 220,000 16.29 Purchase STGT 10,000 70 Sale STGT 30,000 70.83 Sale STGT 5,000 74 Sale STGT 3,500 76.75 Sale STGT 10,000 75.25 Sale TIGER 500,000 1.6 Sale TNR 10,000 10.8 Purchase TTI 500 20 Purchase UTP 50,000 11.6 Sale UTP 50,000 12.8 Sale UTP 100,000 11.2 Purchase

XD, XE or XM or other notifications

For list of Companies that have dividend payment and AGM meeting schedules click on http://www.set.or.th/set/calendarofevents.do

Trading Breakdown on the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Daily as of 10 Jul 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 4,336.16 6.75 6,827.20 10.63 -2,491.04 - Proprietary 5,817.97 9.06 6,543.42 10.19 -725.46 - Trading Foreign Investors 18,496.42 28.81 19,654.18 30.62 -1,157.76 - Local Individuals 35,546.18 55.37 31,171.93 48.56 4,374.25 -

Monthly Cumulative between 1 - 10 Jul 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 44,476.46 9 40,103.91 8.12 4,372.55 - Proprietary 46,144.17 9.34 44,468.83 9 1,675.35 - Trading Foreign Investors 167,434.67 33.89 169,710.35 34.35 -2,275.68 - Local Individuals 235,969.55 47.76 239,741.76 48.53 -3,772.21 - Yearly Cumulative since 1 Jan - 10 Jul 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 1,008,284.93 11.41 929,750.33 10.52 78,534.60 - Proprietary 888,674.62 10.05 886,471.82 10.03 2,202.80 - Trading Foreign Investors 3,101,261.99 35.08 3,320,183.51 37.56 - - 218,921.52 Local Individuals 3,842,173.17 43.46 3,703,989.06 41.9 138,184.11 -

Total Trading Value 64,196.73 Million Baht

Background Information –

The strength of each party in the Thai Parliament as of May 8, 2019 as per the report by the Election Commission of Thailand. Elections took place on March 24, 2019

 https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/news_all.php?cid=24

 List of MPs - https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/download/article/article_20190508184334.pdf

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