Australian Red List Index Adapting Global Biodiversity
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1 2 3 4 1 Running title: Australian Red List Index 5 6 7 2 8 9 3 Adapting global biodiversity indicators to the national scale: a Red List Index for 10 11 12 4 Australian birds 13 14 5 15 16 1,* 2 3 1 6 Judit K. Szabo , Stuart H. M. Butchart , Hugh P. Possingham , Stephen T. Garnett 17 18 19 7 20 21 8 1Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Northern 22 23 24 9 Territory 0909, Australia 25 26 10 27 28 2 29 11 BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, UK 30 31 12 32 33 3 34 13 Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 35 36 14 Queensland 4072, Australia 37 38 39 15 40 41 42 43 16 * corresponding author: [email protected], tel: +61 8 8946 6427, fax: +61 8 8946 6949 44 45 46 17 Abstract 47 48 18 49 50 51 19 The Red List Index (RLI), which uses information from the IUCN Red List to track trends in the 52 53 20 projected overall extinction risk of sets of species, is among the indicators adopted by the 54 55 56 21 world‟s governments to assess performance under the Convention on Biological Diversity and 57 58 22 the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. For greatest impact, such indicators need to 59 60 61 62 1 63 64 65 1 2 3 4 23 be measured and used at a national scale as well as globally. We present the first application of 5 6 7 24 the RLI based on assessments of extinction risk at the national scale using IUCN‟s recommended 8 9 25 methods, evaluating trends in the status of Australian birds for 1990–2010. We calculated RLIs 10 11 12 26 based on the number of taxa in each Red List category and the number that changed categories 13 14 27 between assessments in 1990, 2000 and 2010 as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration 15 16 28 in status. A novel comparison between trends at the species and ultrataxon (subspecies or 17 18 19 29 monotypic species) level showed that these were remarkably similar, suggesting that current 20 21 30 global RLI trends at the species level may also be a useful surrogate for tracking losses in genetic 22 23 24 31 diversity at this scale, for which no global measures currently exist. The RLI for Australia is 25 26 32 declining faster than global rates when migratory shorebirds and seabirds are included, but not 27 28 29 33 when changes resulting from threats in Australia alone are considered. The RLI of oceanic island 30 31 34 taxa has declined faster than those on the continent or on continental islands. There were also 32 33 34 35 differences in the performance of different jurisdictions within Australia. 35 36 36 37 38 37 Keywords Australia, birds, IUCN Red List, biodiversity trends, state of the environment, 39 40 41 38 threatened taxa 42 43 39 44 45 46 40 1. Introduction 47 48 41 49 50 51 42 Under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) governments recently adopted a new 52 53 43 strategic plan for reducing biodiversity loss, including 20 targets to be met by 2020 (Secretariat 54 55 44 of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010). Monitoring progress towards, and 56 57 58 45 achievement of, these goals and targets requires indicators (Balmford et al., 2005, Jones et al., 59 60 61 62 2 63 64 65 1 2 3 4 46 2011). Indicator sets have been adopted for the United Nations Millennium Development Goals 5 6 7 47 (MDGs; United Nations, 2011), the CBD‟s previous 2010 target (Walpole et al., 2009, Butchart 8 9 48 et al., 2010), and have been proposed for the 2020 targets (Secretariat of the Convention on 10 11 12 49 Biological Diversity, 2010). For maximum effectiveness, such indicators need to be implemented 13 14 50 at multiple scales, including both global and national. 15 16 51 One prominent indicator in both the MDG and CBD recommended indicator sets is the Red 17 18 19 52 List Index (RLI; Butchart et al., 2004, Butchart et al., 2005, Butchart et al., 2007). The RLI 20 21 53 measures trends in the overall extinction risk of species, and is based on data from the IUCN Red 22 23 24 54 List (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee, 2010), which is widely considered the most 25 26 55 objective system for evaluating extinction risk at national or global scale (Hambler, 2004, Miller 27 28 29 56 et al., 2007). It uses standard criteria with quantitative thresholds for population and range size, 30 31 57 structure and trends to assign species to categories of extinction risk, ranging from Least 32 33 34 58 Concern through Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered, Extinct in 35 36 59 the Wild and Extinct. Those species with insufficient data to apply the criteria are listed as Data 37 38 60 Deficient (IUCN, 2001, IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee, 2010). Assessments must 39 40 41 61 be supported by quantitative data, as well as justifications, sources and estimates of uncertainty 42 43 62 and data quality. The Red List categories and criteria can be used to assess extinction risk at 44 45 46 63 global, regional and national scales, with guidance available for sub-global assessments in order 47 48 64 to take account of potential interchange with populations beyond the scope of assessment (IUCN, 49 50 51 65 2003). 52 53 66 The RLI is based on the number of species in each Red List category, and the number that 54 55 67 change categories between assessments owing to genuine improvement or deterioration in status. 56 57 58 68 It excludes changes in category resulting from improved knowledge, taxonomic changes or 59 60 61 62 3 63 64 65 1 2 3 4 69 revisions to Red List criteria (Butchart et al., 2004, Butchart et al., 2007). The RLI can be 5 6 7 70 calculated for any set of species that has been assessed for the Red List at least twice (Butchart et 8 9 71 al., 2004, Butchart et al., 2007). To date, global RLIs have been published for birds (1988 – 10 11 12 72 2008; BirdLife International, 2008, Butchart et al., 2010), mammals (1996 – 2008; Butchart et 13 14 73 al., 2010, Hoffmann et al., 2011), amphibians (1980 – 2004; Stuart et al., 2004) and corals (1998 15 16 74 – 2008; Carpenter et al., 2008). It is particularly useful for comprehensively assessed taxonomic 17 18 19 75 groups (e.g. birds, mammals, amphibians, corals), for which cautions expressed about the use of 20 21 76 the IUCN Red List to assess trends in biodiversity because of biases in species selection and 22 23 24 77 knowledge limitations are largely inapplicable (Possingham et al., 2002). 25 26 78 This is the first national RLI to be published using the methods as originally designed. 27 28 29 79 While a national RLI was published for a number of taxa in China (Xu et al., 2009), the trends 30 31 80 are difficult to interpret because genuine improvements and deteriorations in status between 32 33 34 81 assessments were combined with those resulting from improved knowledge or taxonomic 35 36 82 changes, and because non-threatened taxa were excluded, contrary to recommended methods 37 38 83 (Butchart et al., 2007, Bubb et al., 2009). National RLIs based on national-scale assessments of 39 40 41 84 extinction risk allow more sensitive tracking of biodiversity trends (because more species move 42 43 85 between Red List categories between assessments when the categories are assigned using 44 45 46 86 national rather than global extinction risk) and hence are of greater utility at the national scale, 47 48 87 which is where the decisions are made that have greatest influence on biodiversity trends. 49 50 51 88 Furthermore, the development of national RLIs will likely lead to greater ownership and uptake 52 53 89 by national governments. 54 55 90 The present study assesses recent trends in the extinction risk for birds in Australia by 56 57 58 91 calculating an RLI based on national-scale assessments undertaken in 1990, 2000 and 2010. It 59 60 61 62 4 63 64 65 1 2 3 4 92 also examines trends at both the species and subspecies level and on geographical, political and 5 6 7 93 taxonomic subsets of the data. Since countries sharing taxa interact at the policy level we 8 9 94 calculated RLIs both including and excluding status changes that resulted from threats acting 10 11 12 95 outside the Australian part of a visiting taxon‟s distribution, in order to quantify the extent to 13 14 96 which national biodiversity trends are driven by external threats. 15 16 97 17 18 19 98 2. Materials and methods 20 21 99 2.1. Red List assessments 22 23 24 100 We based our evaluations of the extinction risk of Australian bird taxa, both at the species and 25 26 101 subspecies level, on assessments undertaken in1990 (Garnett, 1992), in 2000 (Garnett & 27 28 29 102 Crowley, 2000) and in 2010 (Garnett et al., 2011) using the IUCN Red List criteria pertaining at 30 31 103 the time of assessment. Following recommended methods (Butchart et al., 2007, Butchart et al., 32 33 34 104 2010, Hoffmann et al., 2010), we retrospectively corrected categorisations for 1990 and 2000 35 36 105 using current (2010) knowledge.