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The Economic Performance of England's Regions

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ey.com/uk/regionalforecast The economic performance of England’s regions UK Regional Economic Forecast December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 1 ey.com/uk/regionalforecast Contents Introduction 01 Regional focus 02 1 North East 03 Introduction 2 North West 04 3 Yorkshire and the Humber 05 We are very pleased to share our sixth economic forecast Despite the challenging outlook, there is opportunity. East Midlands 06 for England’s regions, cities and towns. As a nationwide Although COVID-19 delivered a huge economic and health 4 employer, committed to supporting efforts to rebalance the cost, the response to the pandemic showed us that there country’s economic geography, our forecasts are designed are alternative ways to organise our economic and social to help broaden understanding and to advance the debate. activities. With our research showing that both businesses West Midlands 07 We will be working with our colleagues across the country and consumers are aware of the opportunities which 5 to share the detailed findings with local stakeholders. change offers, and are keen to explore them, we believe there is a unique opportunity to transform England’s East of England 08 As we reach the end of 2020, the launch of a vaccination economy and move to the Next Level — a more prosperous 6 programme points to light at the end of the tunnel. This and balanced economy. This document is intended to give is reflected in our economic forecast, with the EY ITEM details of the regional performance. Click here to download Club projecting a return to growth in 2021. However, South East 09 the forecast in full where, we identify the key steps the consequences of the shock delivered by COVID-19 required to make this vision a reality. 7 will remain with us for some time. This is particularly true in respect of the Government’s ambition to level up We firmly believe in the potential of ‘levelling up’ and South West 10 the economy, and our forecast suggests that on current are committed to supporting attempts to maximise the 8 trends, the gap between the North and South of the opportunities and performance in all parts of the country. country is likely to widen over the next three years, and We look forward to the opportunity to share and develop 9 London 11 cities are expected to pull further away from towns. our ideas with you. Contact us 12 Notes 13 Definitions 14 Rohan Malik Mark Gregory UK&I Managing Partner — UK Chief Economist, Government and Infrastructure, Ernst & Young LLP Ernst & Young LLP 2 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 1 ey.com/uk/regionalforecast 1 Regional North East focus • According to the latest Purchasing Employment structure: North East vs UK (excl. London), 2019 Managers’ Index (PMI), output in the North East increased for the fourth Human health and social work consecutive month in October 2020. Public administration However, like the rest of the UK, the pace Manufacturing of this growth has slowed since August. Education • Labour market data has been fairly Accommodation and food service mixed for the North East. The total Other service activities Real estate activities Small relative Large relative number of workforce jobs rose by 0.9% to UK excl. to UK excl. Information and communication over the year to June 2020, despite a London London 0.7% contraction nationally. However, Financial and insurance activities the more timely Labour Force Survey Construction (LFS) reports that employment fell by Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.8% in the quarter to September 2020 Administrative and support service compared with the same period a year Transportation and storage earlier — this contraction was broadly in Utilities, extraction and agriculture line with that of the UK. The region also Wholesale and retail trade recorded a rise in the unemployment Professional, scientific and technical rate over the same period, up to 6.7% -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 of the population aged 16 and above Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference from 5.9%. • The North East recorded the weakest GVA growth: North East vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 growth house prices in the 12 months to August 2020, growing by 0.2% Utilities, extraction and agriculture compared to 2.5% nationally. Financial and insurance activities • The North East will be among the Accommodation and food service weakest performing regions over the Other service activities period 2020-23, with GVA contracting Wholesale and retail trade by 0.3% on average each year. Public administration Employment is expected to decline Transportation and storage Slow relative Fast relative to UK excl. to UK excl. by 0.4% each year as job losses in the Arts, entertainment and recreation London London region’s manufacturing sector hinder Education overall employment growth. Human health and social work Manufacturing Construction Administrative and support service Information and communication The North East will be Professional, scientific and technical among the weakest Real estate activities performing regions over -0.7 -0.2 0.3 the period 2020-23 Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference 2 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 3 ey.com/uk/regionalforecast 2 3 North West Yorkshire and the Humber • The latest survey data from the PMI Employment structure: North West vs UK (excl. London), 2019 • The latest PMI data shows that growth Employment structure: Yorkshire and the Humber vs UK suggests that the North West’s economy in Yorkshire and the Humber’s economy (excl. London), 2019 Wholesale and retail trade continued to grow in October 2020, slowed in October 2020 however, the Manufacturing Professional, scientific and technical although the rate of growth has started region still experienced growth above Education Transportation and storage to slow. UK average. Transportation and storage Administrative and support service • Recent labour market data has been • Recent employment data has been Administrative and support service Manufacturing relatively weak. Total workforce jobs in positive for Yorkshire and the Humber. Financial and insurance activities the North West fell by 1.5% over the year Other service activities Workforce jobs reports a 0.9% rise Small relative Large relative Accommodation and food service Real estate activities Small relative Large relative to June 2020, more than twice the rate to UK excl. to UK excl. in the 12 months to June 2020, the Public administration Financial and insurance activities to UK excl. to UK excl. of contraction reported across the UK. London London strongest performance observed across Information and communication Human health and social work London London The more timely LFS indicates further the regions. The more timely LFS data Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food service decline in the quarter to September records that employment also grew Real estate activities Public administration 2020 compared with the previous year, in the quarter to September 2020 Human health and social work Arts, entertainment and recreation with employment declining by 6,000, compared with a year previous, Wholesale and retail trade Education coinciding with a 0.4 percentage point rising by an additional 0.5%. Despite Other service activities Construction rise in the unemployment rate to 5.9% of increasing employment, a rise in the Utilities, extraction and agriculture Information and communication the population aged 16 and above. unemployment rate was also recorded Professional, scientific and technical Utilities, extraction and agriculture • Despite the poor performance of the over the same period. Construction labour market, house price growth in the -0.9 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 • The region’s strong employment -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 North West has been among the highest Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference performance helped to support house Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference across the UK regions in the 12 months prices, with prices increasing by 2.7% to August 2020, rising by 3.5% compared in the 12 months to August 2020 and to 2.5% nationally. GVA growth: North West vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 outpacing the UK (2.5%). GVA growth: Yorkshire and the Humber vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 • Our GVA and employment growth Real estate activities • GVA growth in Yorkshire and the Information and communication forecasts for the North West match the Professional, scientific and technical Humber is forecast to lag the UK Financial and insurance activities UK over the 2020-23 period, growing at Administrative and support service between 2020 and 2023, contracting Public administration an average of 0.1% and -0.1% per year Construction by 0.2% annually compared with 0.1% Human health and social work respectively. The professional, scientific Accommodation and food service average growth nationally. Despite Accommodation and food service and technical and wholesale and retail Wholesale and retail trade the overall contraction, human health Education sectors will be the most dynamic in the Manufacturing Slow relative Fast relative and social work and information and Wholesale and retail trade Slow relative Fast relative to UK excl. to UK excl. to UK excl. to UK excl. region — the latter benefitting in the Transportation and storage communication are forecast to be the Manufacturing London London London London near-term from pent-up demand. Arts, entertainment and recreation
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