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Complex Interdependence and Peace: a Comparative Analytical Study of Ukraine, Georgia and CIS Member-States from 2000 – 2014

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Complex Interdependence and Peace: a Comparative Analytical Study of Ukraine, Georgia and CIS Member-States from 2000 – 2014 University of Tartu Faculty of Social Sciences Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies MA thesis Raul Parts Complex Interdependence and Peace: a Comparative Analytical Study of Ukraine, Georgia and CIS member-states from 2000 – 2014. Supervisor: Raul Toomla, PhD Tartu 2016 Olen koostanud töö iseseisvalt. Kõik töö koostamisel kasutatud teiste autorite tööd, põhimõttelised seisukohad, kirjandusallikatest ja mujalt pärinevad andmed on viidatud. Olen nõus oma töö avaldamisega Tartu Ülikooli digitaalarhiivis DSpace. Raul Parts /töö autori nimi/ Abstract The idea of the research project is to examine the possible correlation between economic interdependence and security. The following thesis will look at the members of Commonwealth of Independent States in a dyad with Russia over the last decade in order to determine the variables, that accordance with the independent variable, i.e. economic interdependence can affect security in the mentioned dyads. Already from the 1950s, liberals in international relations along with liberals in economics have described the benefits of trade and economic interdependence, making it too costly to engage in a conflict. Globalization theorists have evolved the concept and economists tend to say that the world is (at least in financial terms) very much interdependent. This all should make conflict a very costly option for a state and enforce pacifism between states and in the international arena in general. But economic interdependence can also be of asymmetric nature, making the costs of a conflict very high to one counterpart and thus reducing the threat of a conflict to the second counterpart. The thesis will look at how economic interdependence along with other relevant variables can affect conflict or perhaps prevent it from happening in the first place. A theory is presented and it is tested through corroborative examples of military disputes between Russia and the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. 3 Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6 Theoretical base ........................................................................................................ 10 Theory of Complex Interdependence ................................................................... 10 Liberalism ............................................................................................................. 13 Realism ................................................................................................................. 19 Independent Variable ........................................................................................... 25 Control Variables ................................................................................................. 27 Energy dependence .......................................................................................... 27 Regime Type .................................................................................................... 29 Public opinion .................................................................................................. 30 Corruption ........................................................................................................ 31 Dependent variable ............................................................................................... 34 Research Design ....................................................................................................... 35 Operationalization of Variables ........................................................................... 36 Independent variable ........................................................................................ 36 Control variables .............................................................................................. 38 Independent variable ........................................................................................ 39 Results ...................................................................................................................... 40 CIS dyads ............................................................................................................. 40 Moldova ............................................................................................................... 45 Armenia ................................................................................................................ 47 4 Ukraine ................................................................................................................. 50 Georgia ................................................................................................................. 64 Belarus .................................................................................................................. 72 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 78 Appendix 1. .............................................................................................................. 82 References. ............................................................................................................... 84 Lihtlitsents lõputöö reprodutseerimiseks ja lõputöö üldsusele kättesaadavaks tegemiseks ........................................................................................................................... 93 5 Introduction The Ukrainian conflict, that started with the Euromaidan protests back in November of 2013, against the decision of declining the Ukrainian European-Union Associations Agreement. The decision to decline the agreement and align Ukraine’s foreign- and economic policy away from the European Union and towards Russia was made by the now former president Viktor Yanukovych and his government in Vilnius, during the European Union summit. The decision of declining the Associations Agreement sparked a spontaneous non- political gathering of Kiev’s younger generation that quickly escalated with violence and evolved into a confrontation between the sitting president Yanukovych and the protesters who demanded Yanukovych’s resignation and a whole new policy towards the European Union. The protests that started on the night of 21 November 2013 were a surprise to the ruling regime and the president hoped to dissolve the protests and continue its path to further integrate Ukraine with Russia. Irregardless of Yanukovych’s attempts to dissolve the protests, they failed and had a contrary effect – the more the ruling regime tried to break the opposition on Euromaidan, the stronger it grew and the more it demanded from the ruling regime to step down. Even more, since the protests got more and more attention from foreign media and from the European Union who all supported publicly the protesters, the support for the protesters and a new potential government also increased within the public of Ukraine and sparked pro-European protests throughout Ukraine. Yet at the same time, pro-Russian and pro-regime protests started in Eastern-Ukraine that had a strong economic, political, historical and perhaps most importantly – a strong identity connection with Russia. After the Agreement on Settlement of Political Crisis in Ukraine was signed between Yanukovych’s regime and the opposition, Yanukovych fled the next day to Russia and Russia started backing the pro-Russian protests in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The dominant population in Eastern-Ukraine was poorly assimilated with the Western-Ukraine and did not share the same values and beliefs as the Western- Ukraine, the two Ukraine’s did not have a unifying single identity. 6 After Yanukovych fled to Russia and Russia started actively backing the pro-Russian movements in Donbass, a civil war broke loose and Russia had lost one of its strongest allies in Eastern Europe besides Belarus. Yet Ukraine was both politically and economically heavily integrated with the Russian economy through trade, FDI and strategic energy carriers (in our case natural gas) and through the liberal discourse of economic interdependence and peace and through the realist discourse of asymmetric economic dependence,1 Russia should have increased its influence and power over Ukraine and making it eventually dependent on its own economy. This should have eventually increased security for both Russia and Ukraine since the higher the level of interdependency. In theory, the higher the level of interdependency, the lower the potential gains of war and the higher the potential losses of war. In the current case, this model especially applies for Ukraine, since Ukraine was the economically smaller, more dependent partner of Russia and was also weaker in terms of military power. It seems like the liberal theory of complex interdependence and peace failed in Ukraine and the realist perspective of an anarchic international system prevailed. The current research tries to look at the conflicts of Ukraine and Georgia through the model of complex interdependence and answer the question, if interdependence did fail and could not have prevented the crises of Ukraine and Georgia. The scope of the research is wide, since the question of interdependence and peace has been advocated by liberals for decades and several quantitative researches confirm the hypothesis that interdependence fosters peace between its members. Realists
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