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Craig Alexander 7:57:44 (IM Melbourne) Performance of the Year: Craig Alexander 7:57:44 (IM Melbourne) #1 Rated Athlete: Andreas Raelert 8:15:26 Kona Winner: Pete Jacobs 8:18:37 2012 Best Swimmer: Andy Potts 0:45:16 Best Biker: Andy Starykowicz 4:26:53 Best Runner: Bart Aernouts 2:47:49 Long Distance Best Swimmer: Amanda Stevens 0:48:27 Best Biker: Caroline Steffen 5:00:32 Best Runner: Mirinda Carfrae 3:00:53 Rating Report Kona Winner: Leanda Cave 9:15:54 #1 Rated Athlete: Mirinda Carfrae 9:12:34 Performance of the Year: Caroline Steffen 8:34:51 (IM Melbourne) Released January 2013 www.trirating.com Thorsten Radde [email protected] Table of Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Long Distance Trivia Questions ........................................................................................................ 4 Rating Analysis 2012 – Male Athletes ............................................................................................... 5 Rating Analysis 2012 - Female Athletes ............................................................................................ 8 Best Swimmers, Bikers and Runners .............................................................................................. 10 TOP 10 Performances 2012 ............................................................................................................. 13 Fastest 2012 Results ......................................................................................................................... 16 2012 Money List ............................................................................................................................... 19 Kona Pro Ranking ........................................................................................................................... 21 Looking forward to Kona 2013 – First predictions ........................................................................ 25 Course Ratings ................................................................................................................................. 26 Having fun with the Ratings: Fast Couples..................................................................................... 28 Race Results 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 30 All Rated Athletes ............................................................................................................................ 42 Legal Stuff © 2013, Thorsten Radde This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/. This means you are free to share under the following conditions: Attribution — You must attribute the work by including a link or reference to trirating.com (but not in any way that suggests that I endorse you or your use of the work). Noncommercial — You may not use this work for commercial purposes. (If you want to, please get in contact with me.) Share Alike — If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one. The athletes’ photos on the title page were taken from publicly available sources such as Twitter or Facebook profile pages. Please notify me in case if this violates any copyrights you may hold on these pictures, and I will update the document. 2012 Rating Report Thorsten’s Triathlon Rating Page 2 Introduction Thank you for downloading my second end-of-season rating report. I have been running trirating.com for almost two years – which means that I have a large amount of data to analyze and a solid method of rating results. As last year, this report contains a detailed Rating Analysis of the TOP 10 athletes and major changes in the TOP 100. I’m also identifying the best performances in 2012 across the different courses, discuss the 2012 price money list and offer my first predictions for Kona 2013. The biggest addition to last year’s report is that I have broken the ratings down into individual ratings for each of the legs in a triathlon. This allows me to identify the best swimmers, bikers and runners in long distance triathlons. I’m also working on using the individual ratings to better predict how a race may unfold. The Kona Pro Ranking system as a way of qualifying for Kona continues to be an area of discussion among pro athletes. This year, I’m having a closer look at what is required to qualify and I’m discussing some qualifying strategies. Some valid strategies may not really be in the best interests of the sport, and I hope that WTC comes up with an updated version of the qualifying system that addresses the issues raised. My rating method has been pretty stable in the last year. I’ve tweaked a little bit in order to address some minor issues. For example, the adjustments and ratings I was getting for slow courses were not realistic, so I added some code to handle results that are a bit more extreme. That way, I was able to handle the crazy slow last edition of IM St. George, and the course ratings for slow courses such as Lanzarote have changed further away “from the middle”. That way, we now have a difference of almost thirty minutes between Lanzarote and Roth (instead of the twenty minutes as last year). The feedback I received indicates that these numbers are much more realistic. As not too many of the top athletes race on these slow courses, the influence of these changes in the ratings of the top athletes has been quite small. I’ve started to add more and more courses to my results database. This work is still ongoing, extracting the results from a PDF or website continues to be either difficult or frustratingly mind-numbing work. Race organizers such as WTC and Challenge should do a much better job, but it seems that once the race over, they don’t have too much interest in it. Another area that they should do a better job is with start lists. Even when they are posted a week or so before a race, they are usually hopelessly out of date. I’m sure that doing a better job here would make press releases or media inquiries much easier to handle. Even with all the work, I still enjoy working on the ratings and the regular posts before and after the race. I love getting feedback from readers and the ongoing discussion and encouragement by Bevan and John from IMTalk. I hope that I can continue and hopefully extend that value that trirating.com provides. An interesting collaboration has been with Brett from zentriathlon.com. This resulted in a guest post on his site on fast couples that I’ve included here in a slightly updated version. In order to lighten the mood a little bit, the report starts with a few Long Distance Trivia Questions – the answers are spread throughout the report. For those who want to get the answers right away, I’ve also included them at the end of the section on Money List. Enjoy this report and have a great 2013 triathlon season! Thorsten 2012 Rating Report Thorsten’s Triathlon Rating Page 3 Long Distance Trivia Questions Here are a few questions that are interesting to statistics nerds like me – I hope you like them, too! 1. Who had the second fastest Ironman-distance time of 2012? a. Men b. Women 2. Which races had such a small field so that not the whole price-money was given out? 3. Australia and Britain seem to have a grip on the Kona titles. a. Who was the last non-Aussie to win the men's title? In which year? b. Who was the last non-Brit to win the women's title? In which year? 4. Who were the last US athletes to finish on the podium (1-3) in Kona? a. Men b. Women c. Bonus: Who were the last ones (men & women) before that? 5. Who posted the fastest marathon times in 2012? a. Men b. Women 6. It is very hard to peak multiple times in a year for a long-distance triathlon. Who were the last Kona champions to win another Ironman race in the same year? a. Men (name, year, race) b. Women (name, year, race) 7. There are some athletes that race very often in a long-distance race. Among the participants in Kona this year, who has the most finishes? a. Men (should be pretty easy) b. Women (trickier, as prolific racers Hillary Biscay and Belinda Granger didn't qualify) 8. This year, we saw two new world best bike times in a long distance triathlon by Andy Starykowicz in IM Florida (4:04:39) and Caroline Steffen in Melbourne (4:35:29). Who had the world best times before them? a. Men (name, time, race) b. Women (name, time, race) 9. Which races in 2012 had the closest and widest margin between the winner and runner-up (PROs only)? a. Closest Men’s Race (race, margin, name of 1st and 2nd finisher) b. Closest Women’s Race (race, margin, name of 1st and 2nd finisher) c. Men’s Race with the widest margin (race, margin, name of 1st and 2nd finisher) d. Women’s Race with the widest margin (race, margin, name of 1st and 2nd finisher) 10. Which races in 2012 had the closest and widest margin between the male and female winners (PROs only)? a. Closest Race (race, margin, male and female winners) b. Race with the widest margin (race, margin, male and female winners) 2012 Rating Report Thorsten’s Triathlon Rating Page 4 Rating Analysis 2012 – Male Athletes TOP 10 Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races 1 (1) Andreas Raelert GER 08:15:26 (+1:46) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 10 2 (2) Craig Alexander AUS 08:16:48 (-1:13) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 9 3 (4) Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:17:06 (-2:22) IM Germany on 2012-07-08 13 4 (5) Eneko Llanos ESP 08:20:19 (-2:40) IM Melbourne on 2012-03-24 17 5 (6) Sebastian Kienle GER 08:20:53 (-2:09) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 5 6 (7) Timo Bracht GER 08:21:20 (-2:16) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 17 7 (9) Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:24:12 (-3:10) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 15 8 (-) David Dellow AUS 08:25:32 (n/a) IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 4 9 (14) Cameron Brown NZL 08:26:50 (-5:23) Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 19 10 (3) Chris McCormack AUS 08:27:19 (+8:20) IM Cairns on 2012-06-02 15 Compared to last year, Andreas Raelert held on to his first spot in the rankings, though his lead has gotten much smaller.
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