Private Travel and Carbon Footprint in Tel Aviv: High-Resolution
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Private Travel and Carbon Footprint in Tel Aviv: High-Resolution Analysis and Decoupling Potential Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of “DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY” by Ariel Reznik Submitted to the Senate of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev 22 February 2017 Beer-Sheva Private Travel and Carbon Footprint in Tel Aviv: High-Resolution Analysis and Decoupling Potential Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of “DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY” by Ariel Reznik Submitted to the Senate of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Approved by the advisors Dr. Meidad Kissinger and Dr. Nurit Alfasi Approved by the Dean of the Kreitman School of Advanced Graduate Studies 22 February 2017 Beer-Sheva This work was carried out under the supervision of Dr. Meidad Kissinger and Dr. Nurit Alfasi In the Department of Geography and Environmental Development Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Acknowledgments The author would like to thank the following sources for supporting parts of this dissertation: The ‘Marie Curie International Reintegration Grants (IRG)’ through grant (FP7-PEOPLE- RG-2009), and the Institute for innovation in Transportation, Porter school of the Environment studies, Tel Aviv University. The Kreitman School of Advanced Graduate Studies, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev The Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben Gurion University of the Negev And also: Dr. Meidad Kissinger for his patient guidance and generosity Dr. Nurit Alfasi for sharing her wisdom and enthusiasm Dr. Michael Dorman, Dor Friedman and Oron M. Guy for their expertise The Sustainability and Environmental Policy Lab Students for their help and tolerance And finally, my family and friends for their faith and constant support מוקדש לאבי מורי ז"ל ממנו ירשתי אידיאליזם וצימאון לידע To my father of blessed memory who gave me idealism and a thirst for knowledge Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 2. Background.................................................................................................... 3 2.1. The Urbanizing World and Sustainability ...................................................................... 3 2.1.1. Cities as nodes of consumption 3 2.2. Sustainability: a Path for Long-lasting Solutions ........................................................... 5 2.2.1. What is Sustainability? 5 2.2.2. Different Disciplines, Different Approaches: The Biophysical and the Social Approach to Urban Sustainability 6 2.3. Sustainability Applied .................................................................................................... 8 2.3.1. The Urban Metabolic System 8 2.3.2. IPAT 8 The Environmental Kuznets Curve 10 Jevons' Paradox and the Rebound Effect 11 2.3.3. Resource Decoupling: Heightening Efficiency by Integrating Sustainability on the household scale 13 Energy consumption and GHG emissions as an indicator for urban metabolic rates ...... 15 2.4. The role of Urban Transportation ................................................................................. 16 2.4.1. Urban and Socioeconomic Determinants of Travel Behavior 16 2.4.2. Commuting to Work by Car 17 2.4.3. The Urban Form Debate 18 2.4.4. The A, B and C of Car Travel 19 2.4.5. Commuting in Israel 20 2.5. Measuring Transportation ................................................................................................ 20 2.5.1. A short Introduction to Urban GHG Accounting ...................................................... 20 2.5.2. Approaches and Methods in Travel-Related Urban GHG Accounting ..................... 22 .2.6 Research Justification .............................................................................................. 26 3. Methods ............................................................................................................................. 27 3.1. Research Questions ...................................................................................................... 27 3.2. Measuring transportation Part 1: consumption snapshot .............................................. 28 3.2.1. The Database 28 3.2.2. Geodata 28 3.2.3. Mileage and emissions per capita 29 3.3. Measuring transportation Part 2: characterization and analysis ................................... 30 3.3.1. Preparing the data 30 3.3.2. Spatial analysis 34 3.4. Tel Aviv commute pattern ............................................................................................ 35 3.5. Limitations in this Research ......................................................................................... 36 4. Results ............................................................................................................................. 37 4.1. Measuring Transportation Part 1: Consumption Snapshot ........................................... 37 4.1.1. Average Automobile Age and Engine Volume 37 4.1.2. Level of Motorization and Leasing Prevalence 40 4.1.3. Mileage and Carbon Footprint per Car 42 4.1.4. Mileage and Carbon Footprint per Capita 44 4.1.5. Work Commute Mileage and Carbon Footprint 47 4.2. Tel Aviv commute pattern ............................................................................................ 48 4.2.1. Kilometers Commute per Capita 48 4.2.2. Intercity commute pattern 50 4.2.3. Intra-city Commute Pattern 52 4.3. Statistical Analyses ....................................................................................................... 54 4.3.1. Exploratory Regression 54 4.3.2. Cluster Analysis 61 4.3.3. Spatial Regression 62 4.4. Model scenarios ............................................................................................................ 64 Case scenarios .................................................................................................................... 64 Policy change: Urban Densification 65 Behavioral change: Carpooling 65 Technology change: Going electric 65 A practical model 66 4. Results Analysis .................................................................................................................. 67 4.1.1. Average Automobile Age and Engine Volume ......................................................... 67 4.1.2. Level of Motorization and Leasing Prevalence ......................................................... 67 4.1.3. Kilometers per car and CO2 per car ........................................................................... 68 4.1.4. km/capita co2/capita .................................................................................................. 68 4.1.5. Commute vs. Total Travel ......................................................................................... 68 4.2.1. Exploratory Regression Analysis .............................................................................. 69 4.2.2. Searching for the Right Socioeconomic Factor for Cluster analysis ......................... 69 4.2.3. Spatial Regression ..................................................................................................... 70 4.3.1. Kilometers Commute per Capita ............................................................................... 71 4.3.2. Intercity commute pattern .......................................................................................... 72 4.3.3. Intra-city Commute Pattern ....................................................................................... 73 5. Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 74 5.1. An urban world and the role of transportation ............................................................. 74 5.2. High-resolution urban metabolism analysis ................................................................. 75 5.3. Using the revised IPAT equation ................................................................................. 76 5.3.1. Level of motorization and Vehicle Characteristics: Affluence, Technology and Behavior 77 5.3.2. The spatial effect 79 5.4. Transit ........................................................................................................................... 81 5.5. Resource decoupling potential ..................................................................................... 81 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 82 5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 83 5.1. An Overview ................................................................................................................ 83 5.2. The Benefits of High-Resolution Carbon Footprint Mapping ...................................... 84 5.3. The Socioeconomic Effect ........................................................................................... 85 5.4. The Spatial effect .......................................................................................................... 86 5.5. Commute ratio and Pattern ........................................................................................... 86 5.6. Suggestions for Planning .............................................................................................. 87 5.6.1. Urban density 87 Implications for further research ........................................................................................