Cass Consulting Dubai As an International Financial Centre Threats and Opportunities
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Cass Consulting Dubai as an international financial centre Threats and opportunities Professor Stephen Thomas, Kamaldeep Panesar and Dr Christina Makris September 2013 www.cassknowledge.com/cass-consulting Internal-External Analysis..............................................17 Executive Summary 3 Strengths ................................................................................. 17 Purpose of this Paper ....................................................... 3 Weaknesses ............................................................................ 21 Paper’s Outline ................................................................ 3 Opportunities .......................................................................... 28 Key Conclusion ................................................................ 3 Threats .................................................................................... 30 Key Recommendation ..................................................... 3 Conclusion .............................................................................. 30 Five Forces Industry Analysis ....................................... 31 About Cass Consulting 3 Competitive Rivalry Within the Industry ................................ 31 Cass Consultant ............................................................... 3 Threat of New Entrants ........................................................... 32 Introduction 4 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ............................................... 32 Bargaining Power of Customers ............................................. 32 IFC Overview 4 Threat of Substitute Products ................................................. 32 What is an IFC? ................................................................ 4 Conclusion .............................................................................. 33 What are the main IFCs and how do they compare? ....... 4 Strategy Canvas Analysis ............................................... 33 What are the benefits of IFCs? ......................................... 5 Methodology - Comparators ................................................... 33 Methodology - Factors ............................................................ 34 Contextual Overview 6 Results .................................................................................... 37 UAE Overview .................................................................. 6 Conclusion ..............................................................................44 Dubai Overview ............................................................... 7 Our Vision for Dubai: A Central Role in the Review of Existing Assessments of Dubai as Middle East and Africa 45 an IFC 8 Economic Growth in MEWA .......................................... 46 Global Financial Centres Index ....................................... 8 Demand for Financial Services in MEWA ...................... 48 Economist Intelligence Unit Report ................................ 8 Underdeveloped Financial Services in MEWA .............. 52 Index of Economic Freedom ............................................ 8 Concluding Remarks 52 MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review ....................... 8 Global Competitiveness Report ...................................... 11 Appendix 54 Methodology Used To Assess Dubai as an IFC12 Variability and Level Of Financial Services Development Across MEWA ................................................................. 54 Prerequisites of Being Classified an IFC ......................... 12 Depth of Financial Markets and Institutions .......................... 54 Internal-External Analysis ............................................. 12 Stability of Financial Markets and Institutions ...................... 54 Five Forces Industry Analysis ........................................ 12 Efficiency of Financial Markets and Institutions .................... 55 Strategy Canvas Analysis................................................ 12 Access to Financial Institutions and Markets ......................... 55 Assessment Of Dubai as an IFC 13 Does Dubai Meet the Basic IFC Classification Prerequisites? .................................................................13 Equity Market Assessment ...................................................... 13 Debt Market Assessment ......................................................... 15 Currency Market Assessment .................................................. 15 Derivatives Market Assessment ............................................... 15 Insurance Market Assessment ................................................ 16 Conclusion ............................................................................... 17 2 Executive Summary is the first step to ensure that its infrastructure adheres to industry standard best practices1. Furthermore, the legal Purpose of this Paper environment outside of the immediacy of Dubai’s International Financial Centre (DIFC) needs considerable The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the body of development in order for the UAE to compete globally. knowledge on Dubai as an International Finance Centre (IFC). Specifically, this paper answers the question: “What Key Recommendation steps need to be taken in order for Dubai to continue Our strategic vision for Dubai is for it to become the developing as an IFC?” financial hub for the Middle East and the Whole of Africa In order to achieve this, we critically analysed the IFC (MEWA), providing sophisticated financial services to across a number of factors and compared its level of drive the development of the region. sophistication with other IFCs of interest. With an Our recommendation is underpinned by the fact that: evaluation complete, a set of recommendations that focus on Dubai’s continuing development as an IFC is presented. 1. Dubai’s strategic geographic location acts as an ideal hub to benefit from future economic growth in MEWA Paper’s Outline 2. The increasing demand for financial services in MEWA In order to answer the paper’s main question, we first indicates significant demand for a sophisticated explain what an IFC is, followed by an overview of the regional IFC main IFCs and their relative rankings. With this knowledge 3. The sophistication of Dubai’s IFC relative to financial in place, we next discuss the benefits of IFCs to economies. centres in MEWA provides it a competitive advantage As this paper focuses on Dubai as an IFC, the second chapter provides an overview of Dubai and its place in the About Cass Consulting United Arab Emirates (UAE), along with its relationship Cass Consulting is a research-led consultancy service with other emirates. provided by Cass Business School in the fields of finance, The third chapter provides a review of the existing insurance, actuarial science and business. assessments of Dubai as an IFC including studies carried out by the World Economic Forum, Economist, MSCI, and Cass Consultant Z/Yen. Stephen Thomas The methodologies that we used to assess Dubai as an IFC Professor of Finance, Cass Business School included ensuring that it met the basic prerequisites of He is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of being classified an IFC, an internal-external analysis, a Business Finance and Accounting and a few years ago was five forces industry analysis, and a strategy canvas ranked 11th in Europe for finance research. He was a analysis. Director of Bear Stearns’ Global Alpha (hedge) fund, and With an analysis of Dubai as an IFC complete, the paper along with Professor Andrew Clare, is currently an advisor concludes by presenting our recommendations and our to Way Fund Managers’ Global Momentum Fund, a trend- vision for the emirate. In order to arrive at our following global equity fund, the Way Diversified Income recommendations we critically analysed primary and Fund and the Way Multi Asset Fund. With Roderick secondary interviews and surveys, macroeconomic Collins, David Stuff and James Seaton, they founded statistics and forecasts, market and proprietary data, and Solent Systematic Investment Strategies in 2011 to develop industry wide publications and public opinion. systematic investment strategies suitable for use in investable indices. He is on the education committee for SWIFT provided some bespoke data sets for this report. CFA UK and an examiner for their Investment SWIFT produced the graphs, but CASS did not have access Management Certificate. to the underlying data. Key Conclusion We found that while Dubai has developed the world-class infrastructure required to attract a diverse set of financial services companies, further work is needed to improve the maturity of its equity and debt markets and its financial infrastructure. Conducting a self-assessment based on the 1 CPSS-IOSCO’s Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures: CPSS-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss101a.pdf 3 The third set of IFCs surfaced as centres of stability in Introduction volatile regions, serving as safe havens from which to The purpose of this paper is to answer the question: conduct business. The recommendation for Dubai to provide a hub to the Middle East and the whole of Africa is “What steps need to be taken in order for based on this and will be developed throughout this paper. Dubai to continue developing as an International Financial Centre (IFC)?” Unlike the construction of a port or a highway, the development of a financial centre is an evolutionary In order to arrive