02 December 2010 HONG KONG/CHINA EQUITY Investment Research Private Circulation Only Ng Sem Guan, CFA +60 (3) 9207 7678
[email protected] China’s Steel Sector Bright Spots in the New Landscape As China‘s steel sector enters a new era of consolidation, we think it is time for a revisit. We are initiating coverage with an OVERWEIGHT rating driven by the following factors: (i) We expect the Chinese government to stick to the magic “8%” GDP growth target after a near-unbroken record in the past three decades and given an impending crucial leadership change in 2012. (ii) The robust GDP growth target suggests continued government spending in FAIs to balance the slowdown in the property markets in the coastal region, hence spurring demand in long steel products. Meanwhile, flat producers of specialised steel may benefit from consumption upgrading. (iii) The multi-fold increase in iron ore and coking coal prices suggest that it is time for prices to stabilise; yet there is limited downside in view of higher production cost in China and a possible delay in opening new mines. Going forward, the market may eventually accept current selling prices, which still have slight upside potential. (iv) The new landscape suggests that steel mills may return to mid-cycle ROEs similar to that in 2006, which translate into compelling valuations, especially after the recent market-wide correction. OSK Research 1 See important disclosures at the end of this report OSK Research China’s Steel Sector Initiation December 2, 2010 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY