In 2018, Gold and Silver Prices Poised to Rise Against Unstable US Dollar!
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January 2018, Volume 24 Issue 1 Liberty Coin Service’s Monthly Review of Precious Metals and Numismatics January 10, 2018 In 2018, Gold And Silver Prices Poised To Rise Against Unstable US Dollar! Gold’s 2017 Performance 2017 Annual Results Malaysia Ringgit -9.5% Israel Shekel -9.6% Versus Selected Currencies Precious Metals South Africa Rand -9.8% Palladium +58.4% Sweden Krona -10.2% Currency 2017 Gold Price Change Gold +13.6% Argentine Peso +33.0% South Korea Won -11.7% Silver +7.4% Denmark Krone -12.2% Brazil Real +15.6% Platinum +3.7% Euro -12.4% Philippines Peso +14.7% Numismatics U.S. Dollar Index 92.22 -9.84% Hong Kong Dollar +14.4% US MS-63 $20 St Gaudens +9.8% US Dollar +13.6% US MS-63 $20 Liberty +6.4% US And World Stock Market Indices LCS US Currency Index +5.1% NASDAQ +28.2% Indonesia Rupiah +13.1% LCS Collector Key Date Coin Index -0.5% Sao Paulo Bovespa +26.9% Colombia Peso +12.9% LCS Investor Rare Coins Index -1.1% Dow Jones Industrial Average +25.1% New Zealand Dollar +10.1% LCS Collector Generic Coins Index -1.6% Dow Jones World (excluding US) +24.6% Peru New Sol +9.7% US Silver Proof Sets, 1950-1968 -1.7% S&P 500 +19.4% Japan Yen +9.4% LCS Invest Blue Chip Coins Index -2.1% Nikkei 225 +19.1% US Proof Sets, 1968-1998 -4.3% Russell 2000 +13.1% Switzerland Franc +8.6% US MS-65 Morgan Dollar, Pre-1921 -8.5% Frankfurt Xetra DAX +12.5% Mexico Peso +7.8% US Proof Silver Eagles, 1986-1998 -25.2% London FT 100 +7.6% Australia S&P/ASX 200 +7.1% Russia Ruble +6.9% US Dollar vs Foreign Currencies Shanghai Composite +6.6% India Rupee +6.7% Argentina Peso +17.1% China Yuan +6.4% Brazil Real +1.8% 10 Year US Treasury Note interest rate 2.409% -1.51% Philippines Peso +1.0% Canada Dollar +6.3% Hong Kong Dollar +0.7% Energy and Other Metals Singapore Dollar +4.9% Indonesia Rupiah -0.4% Cobalt +129.4% Australia Dollar +4.8% Colombia Peso -0.6% Aluminum +30.8% Chile Peso +4.4% New Zealand Dollar -2.4% Copper +30.1% Taiwan Dollar +3.8% Peru New Sol -3.5% Zinc +29.1% Japan Yen -3.7% Lead +25.8% Great Britain Pound +3.8% Switzerland Franc -4.4% Nickel +22.4% Thailand Baht +3.4% Mexico Peso -5.1% Crude Oil, Brent +19.9% Malaysia Ringgit +2.8% Russia Ruble -5.9% Molybdenum +5.1% India Rupee -6.1% Natural Gas, Henry Hub -2.7% Israel Shekel +2.7% China Yuan -6.4% Tin -5.8% South Africa Rand +2.5% Canada Dollar -6.5% Metal Content Value Of U.S. Coins Sweden Krona +2.1% Singapore Dollar -7.6% Australia Dollar -7.8% Lincoln cent, 1959-1982 2.17¢ South Korea Won +0.4% Chile Peso -8.1% Lincoln cent, 1982-date 0.85¢ Denmark Krone -0.3% Taiwan Dollar -8.6% Jefferson nickel, non-silver 4.22¢ Euro -0.5% Great Britain Pound -8.6% Roosevelt dime, 1965-date 1.91¢ Thailand Baht -9.0% Washington quarter, 1965-date 4.78¢ Kennedy half dollar, 1971-date 9.56¢ In my judgment, the year 2018 has a It wasn’t that many decades ago when significant chance of bringing large in- in 2018, I think the most common theme creases in precious metals prices (with the US dollar was used for pricing and will be the failure of the US government to making payment for more than 90% of in- the possible exception of palladium). stabilize the value of the US dollar. But, In saying that, I am not predicting ternational transactions worldwide. To- before I detail what I expect will be some day, that is down to perhaps 60% of such that metals prices will be strong in of the major financial crises this year, let their own right. Instead, my thinking trading activity. That still means that no me make one thing clear: other currency is anywhere close to being is grounded on the likelihood of a con- No other fiat currency is anywhere tinuing decline in the relative values as widely accepted. close to being in a position to displace According to the Bank for International of unbacked fiat (paper) currencies. the US dollar as the most widely used As you can see in the list above, the Settlements, more than $5 trillion in cur- form of money in international com- rencies are traded every day. After the price of gold outperformed the over- merce. whelming majority of fiat currencies last year. I expect results in 2018 may Inside this issue: 2018 Risks To US Dollar Stability page 2 be even more dramatic. Will Platinum Soar In 2018? page 4 For a surprisingly high percentage of Pictured Rocks Quarter Debuts February 5 page 6 financial and economic developments (Continued from page 1) which should be its primary and perhaps only US dollar, the euro is the second function. Even the Federal Open Market 2017 Agricultural Com- most used, followed by the Japanese Committee (FOMC) explicitly made it clear modity Track Record yen, British pound, Australia dollar, that a stable money is not a priority. Human Food Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Chi- In the announcement at the end of its mid- Wheat, hard KC +16.7% nese yuan, Mexican peso, and Swe- December meeting the FOMC stated, Eggs, large white Chicago +16.6% dish krona. “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Sorghum (Milo) #2 Gulf +16.5% Hogs, Iowa +5.7% It is true that the Chinese govern- Committee seeks to foster maximum employ- Beef, choice +2.0% ment has been extremely active at in- ment and price stability.” This phrase is re- Cheddar cheese, bulk -7.2% creasing the use of the yuan in inter- peated in just about every Fed pronounce- Oats, #2 Minneapolis -6.8% national commerce, signing bilateral ment. Butter, AA Chicago -2.7% and multilateral treaties with other Later, this announcement stated that the Fed Corn #2 yellow -4.2% countries to avoid using US dollars seeks consumer price increases of at least two Soybeans #1 yellow -5.9% for pricing and payment in contracts percent annually. With a stable currency, the Cheddar cheese, bulk -7.2% among them. process of innovation almost always results in Corn oil, crude wet/dry mill -12.0% Late in 2016, the yuan was added falling consumer prices. Think of computers, Comparisons of year-end wholesale as a component of the International televisions, cell phones, and the like. price changes do not reflect interim Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Further, a stable monetary system encour- price volatility. Also, this is not a com- Rights. The Chinese economy is ages business investment, rising employment, prehensive analysis. However, they do now the world’s second largest. higher incomes, a reduction in poverty, and provide some indication of what to However, it will be years before the more freedom. If you need proof of this con- anticipate for consumer price changes yuan could possibly displace the US cept, just look at the history of America up in- in 2018. dollar as the world’s “reserve” cur- to the Twentieth Century. rency. Because the Federal Reserve does not focus dead. Some of the decline in the use of on stability of the money, it is also destined to About 1973, the US government, as a the US dollar for international com- fail at its stated mandates. way to shore up the value of the US dol- merce simply reflects the fact that the For decades, the value of the US dollar was lar, struck a deal with the government of rest of the globe’s wealth has been fixed to gold, giving the dollar enormous sta- Saudi Arabia to price 100% of interna- increasing faster than America’s. bility. However, since the establishment of tional oil transactions in the dollar. This But, perhaps the dominant reason for the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913, the value slowed, but did not stop the decline of the past and future decline of the US of the US dollar had declined 98.4% against the American dollar. dollar has been its loss of stable val- gold. In 1913, the US dollar was worth Between 1973 and 1974, the Dow ue. 0.04838 of an ounce of gold. At today’s Jones Industrial Average fell 45% and Here’s why that is was and is so COMEX close, the dollar was only worth took a decade to recover. important. 0.00076 of an ounce of gold. For another example, then Treasury Although there are many attributes As long as the US dollar was readily con- Secretary James Baker announced on for what can serve as money, the pur- vertible into gold by all parties who desired to October 14, 1987 the US had run a huge pose of money comes down to three do so (up to 1933), its value was stable. Even deficit and that the solution was to de- basic functions: when the US government in 1933 restricted stabilize the dollar by letting it fall. It is a measure of value. the ability of redeeming US dollars for gold American stock prices immediately It is an instrument trusted by only to governments and central banks, its started to drop. Five days later, the Dow parties to facilitate transactions value stayed relatively stable. Jones Industrial Average plummeted between parties who may be to- This stability, where the US dollar had the 22% in a single day! tal strangers.