University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 04 University of Plymouth Research Theses 01 Research Theses Main Collection 2004 DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS AL-NOAIMI, MUBARAK AMAN http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1951 University of Plymouth All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY - DEMAND ANALYSIS VOLUME ONE by MUBARAK AM AN AL-NOAIMI A thesis submitted to the University of Plymouth in partial fiilfillment for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Earth, Ocean, and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science ^_ 2004 Universl^^of Plymouth Ibrary COPYRIGHT STATEMENT This copy of the dissertation has been supplied on conditions that anyone who consults it is tniderstood to recognise that its copyright rests with its author and that no quotation from this dissertation atid no information derived from it may be published without the author *s prior written consent. Dedication to the soul of my father .... with great appreciation, to my family, Iman, Bader, and Faris .... with great love. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN BAHRAIN: A COMBINED APPROACH OF SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS by Mubarak Aman Al-Noaimi Bahrain is an arid country with acute water shortage problems. The demand for water has increased substantiaUy over the last four decades, leading to over-exploitation from the already scarce renewable groundwater resources. This has caused a significant decline in groundwater levels, a drastic storage depletion, and serious deterioration in groundwater quality. The imbalance between the available water supply and the projected water demand has been growing rapidly, imposing a major constraint on the country's socio-economic development. Resolving these problems or at least mitigating their adverse impacts primarily requires a major shift from the supply-oriented approach to water planning, which is currently being emphasised, towards a greater emphasis on demand-side management policies. In this thesis, a combined approach of supply-demand analysis is employed to investigate the water and management problems in the study area, with the ultimate objective of establishing a supply-demand analytical framework to aid in the formulation of an integrated water management policy. The existing water resources are comprehensively assessed in terms of availability and development constraints. The water use patterns and demand characteristics are systematically analysed. The results of these analyses are shown to have important implications from the water resources planning and management perspective. Using data from cross-sectional surveys, separate water demand functions of both Unear and log-linear functional fonns are estimated for the major water use activities. The empirical evidence presented in this research suggests that certain socio-economic, demographic, physical, climatic, and technological factors affect water use. The variables household size and household/per capita income are found to be the most important determinants of residential water use, with a priori expected signs. Average price, however, does not have a statistically significant effect. Estimated income elasticities vary from 0.12 to 0.22; household size elasticities range from 0.30 to 0.41. Empirical estimates for summer and winter residential demand functions suggest some interesting findings with respect to the seasonal variability in water use. Per capita income elasticities of municipal demand of between 0.15 - 0.33 are estimated. Both the residential and municipal income elasticity estimates appear to correlate favourably with some estimates found in the literature. Not surprisingly, average price elasticity of per capiu municipal demand is estimated to be -0.066, indicating an extremely inelastic demand. In general, the empirical findings from both the non-residential and agricultural surveys give less reliable statistical results, perhaps owing to the insufiQciency of data and/or lack of specific explanatory variables. However, the variables number of bathrooms and presence of swimming pool may be adequate indicators of the non-residential water use, while gross cultivated area appears to be the best single predictor of the agricultural water use. Industrial water demand is shown to be significantly and directly related to the variables measuring production level, number of employees, and factory floor area. Validity tests for the selected analytical models are made. The water supply and demand relationships are examined and water balances for the specified planning period are computed. The improved trend forecasting procedures provide encouragingly accurate results when compared to the actual water use. Three alternative water management scenarios are developed. Comparison among these scenarios indicates that Scenario C, which integrates the supply and denumd management policies, is the most efficient option for achieving optimal water resources development and management. Policy recommendations to enable effective formulation and implementation of this option are presented. TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME ONE COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ABSTRACT TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES xiv LIST OF APPENDICES xviii ACKNOWLEDGMENT XX AUTHOR'S DECLARATION xxii INTRODUCTION CHAPTER ONE 18 LITERATURE REVIEW CHAPTER TWO PEIYSICAL CONDITIONS 84 2.1 The Study Area 84 2.2 Climate 86 2.3 Topography and Physiography 119 2.4 Geology 134 2.4.1 Regional Setting 134 2.4.2 Structural Framework 139 2.4.3 Stratigraphy 147 2.4.4 Depositional Setting 177 2.5 Land Use 184 CHAPTER THREE 191 GROUNDWATER RESOURCES 3.1 The Aquifer Systems 191 3.2 Aquifer Boundaries 195 3.3 Aquifers and Aquitards Geometry 196 3.4 Aquifer and Aquitard Hydraulic Properties 222 3.4.1 The Dammam Aquifer System 224 HI 3.4.2 The Rus - Umm Er Radhuma Aquifer System 233 3.4.3 Aquitard Hydraulic Properties 240 3.5 Piezometric Levels 242 3.5.1 The Dammam Aquifer System 242 3.5.2 The Rus - Umm Er Radhuma Aquifer System 255 3.6 Recharge 265 3.7 Discharge 271 3.7.1 Natural Discharge 273 3.7.2 Well Abstraction 275 3.8 Groundwater Budgets 279 CHAPTER FOUR 283 GROUNDWATER CHEMISTRY 4.1 Sampling and Analysis 283 4.2 The Dammam Aquifer System 287 4.3 The Rus - Umm Er Radhuma Aquifer System 309 4.4 Hydrochemical Facies 313 4.5 Ionic Ratios 317 4.6 Chemical Speciation 324 4.7 Springs Water Quality 329 CHAPTER FIVE 336 NON-CONVENTIONAL WATER RESOURCES 5.1 Desalinated Water 336 5.1.1 Blended Water Quality 340 5.1.2 Desalination Costs 344 5.2 Treated Sewage Effluent 346 5.2.1 Wastewater Flows 351 5.2.2 Wastewater Quality 352 5.2.3 Health and Environmental Considerations 365 5.2.4 Treatment Costs 367 5.3 Agricultural Drainage Water 369 VOLUME TWO CHAPTER SIX 379 WATER USE ANALYSIS 6.1 Data Sources and Types 379 IV 6.1.1 Water Use Data 380 6.1.2 Demographic Data 381 6.1.3 Other Related Information 386 6.2 Trends in Water Use 389 6.3 Analysis of Water Use Pattems 400 6.3.1 Municipal Water Use 401 6.3.2 Agricultural Water Use 425 6.3.3 Industrial Water Use 435 CHAPTER SEVEN 443 WATER USE SURVEYS 7.1 Research Questions 443 7.2 Sampling Design and Procedures 447 7.3 Methods of Data Collection 463 7.4 Analysis of Surveys Data 481 7.4.1 Municipal Water Use Survey 481 7.4.2 Agricultural Water Use Survey 501 7.4.3 Industrial Water Use Survey 508 CHAPTER EIGHT 523 WATER DEIVIAND MODELLING 8.1 Municipal Water Demand 526 8.1.1 Residential Water Demand 527 8.1.2 Non-residential Water Demand 545 8.1.3 Aggregate Municipal Water Demand 552 8.2 Agricultural Water Demand 567 8.3 Industrial Water Demand 576 CHAPTER NINE 586 SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS AND POLICY OPTIONS 9.1 Supply-Demand Analysis 586 9.1.1 Water Supply 586 9.1.2 Water Demand 588 9.2 Water Balance and Policy Options 606 9.2.1 Water Balance 607 9.2.2 Alternative Policy Scenarios 609 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 616 APPENDICES Appendix A Meteorological Data 631 Appendix B Hydrogeological Data 640 Appendix C Hydrochemical Data 648 Appendix D Pre-sampling Data and Survey Questionnaires 675 Appendix E Residual Plots 700 REFERENCES 709 VI LIST OF TABLES VOLUME ONE Table 2.1 The medium to long-term climatological means at Bahrain International 88 Airport 2.2 The existing and abandoned climatic stations in Bahrain and their period 92 of records 2.3 Temperature, mean values and highest and lowest recorded 94 2.4 Monthly means temperature at Bahrain International Airport 1969 - 1980 95 2.5 Monthly means temperature at Budaiya and corresponding averages at 96 Airport 1969- 1980 2.6 Monthly means temperature at Sheikh Isa Air Base and corresponding 97 averages at airport 1991 - 1997 2.7 Monthly and annual rainfall probabilities 100 2.8 Monthly means rainfall at Budaiya and corresponding averages at airport 101 1974- 1980 2.9 Totals monthly evaporation and means at Bahrain International Airport 103 1983 - 1997 2.10 Monthly means evaporation at Budaiya (Class A-Pan) and corresponding 104 averages at airport 1970 - 1980 2.11 Monthly means evaporation at Budaiya 1983 - 1986 and 1994 - 1997 and 106 corresponding averages at airport 2.12 Comparison between monthly means relative humidity at Budaiya and 107 Bahrain