MILTON KEYNES RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Final Report March 2018 One Chapel Place, London, W1G 0BG CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 7 2 PLANNING POLICY REVIEW 9 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) 9 National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) 11 Local Planning Policy Context 11 Housing 13 Transport 15 Retail 15 Shopping Frontages & Boundaries Policy Context 19 3 RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS 23 Retail Trends 23 Special Forms of Trading and Internet Shopping 24 Floorspace 'Productivity' Growth 26 Changing Retailer Requirements 27 Vacancy Levels 28 Trends in Retail-Led Investment and Development 29 Independents and Markets 31 Impact of Out-Of-Centre Retailing 32 Summary 33 4 CATCHMENT AREA & SHOPPING PATTERNS 35 Study Area and Zones 35 Household Telephone Interview Survey & Market Share Analysis 36 5 TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS: METHODOLOGY 43 Engagement of Key Stakeholders 43 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 44 Vacancies 45 Multiple and Independent Retailers 45 Markets 45 Retailer Demand & Requirements 45 Prime Zone A Rents 45 Household Survey 45 Environmental Quality 46 Accessibility 46 Out of Centre Provision 46 New Investment & Potential Development 46 6 CENTRAL MILTON KEYNES – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 47 Context 47 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 48 Vacancies 50 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 51 Markets 51 Retailer Demand & Requirements 51 Prime Zone A Rents 52 Household Survey 52 Environmental Quality 53 Accessibility 54 Out of Centre Provision 54 New Investment & Potential Development 54 Summary 56 Milton Keynes Retail Capacity & Leisure Study - 2018 Page 2 of 167 7 KINGSTON DISTRICT CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 58 Context 58 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 58 Vacancies 59 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 60 Markets 60 Retailer Demand & Requirements 60 Prime Zone A Rents 60 Household Survey 60 Environmental Quality 61 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 62 Out of Centre Provision 62 New Investment & Potential Development 62 Summary 63 8 WESTCROFT DISTRICT CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 64 Context 64 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 64 Vacancies 65 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 65 Markets 66 Retailer Demand & Requirements 66 Prime Zone A Rents 66 Environmental Quality 66 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 66 Out of Centre Provision 67 New Investment & Potential Development 67 Summary 67 Context 68 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 68 Vacancies 69 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 70 Markets 70 Retailer Demand & Requirements 70 Prime Zone A Rents 70 Household Survey 70 Environmental Quality 71 Accessibility 72 Out of Centre Provision 72 New Investment & Potential Development 73 Summary 73 9 WOLVERTON DISTRICT CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 75 Context 75 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 75 Vacancies 76 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 77 Markets 77 Retailer Demand & Requirements 77 Prime Zone A Rents 77 Household Survey 77 Environmental Quality 78 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 79 Out of Centre Provision 80 New Investment & Potential Development 80 Summary 80 10 NEWPORT PAGNELL TOWN CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 82 Milton Keynes Retail Capacity & Leisure Study - 2018 Page 3 of 167 Context 82 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 82 Vacancies 83 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 83 Markets 84 Retailer Demand & Requirements 84 Prime Zone A Rents 84 Environmental Quality 84 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 84 Out of Centre Provision 85 New Investment & Potential Development 85 Summary 85 Context 86 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 86 Vacancies 87 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 87 Markets 88 Retailer Demand & Requirements 88 Prime Zone A Rents 88 Environmental Quality 88 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 88 Out of Centre Provision 89 New Investment & Potential Development 89 Summary 89 11 STONY STRATFORD TOWN CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 91 Context 91 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 91 Vacancies 92 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 92 Markets 93 Retailer Demand & Requirements 93 Prime Zone A Rents 93 Environmental Quality 93 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 94 Out of Centre Provision 94 New Investment & Potential Development 94 Summary 94 12 WOBURN SANDS TOWN CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 96 Context 96 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 96 Vacancies 97 Market 97 Prime Zone A Rents 97 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 98 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 98 Environmental Quality 98 Summary 98 13 LOCAL CENTRES 100 Broughton Gate Local Centre 102 Grange Farm Local Centre 102 Oakgrove Local Centre 102 Fenny Stratford Local Centre 103 Neath Hill Local Centre 103 New Bradwell Local Centre 103 Shenley Church End Local Centre 104 Milton Keynes Retail Capacity & Leisure Study - 2018 Page 4 of 167 Stantonbury Local Centre 104 Two Mile Ash Local Centre 104 Conniburrow 104 14 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 106 CREAT e Model: Key Baseline Assumptions & Forecasts 106 Base Year Population and Projections 107 Expenditure Per Capita and Special Forms of Trading (SFT) 108 Total Available Expenditure 108 Market Share Analysis 109 ‘Inflow’ (Trade Draw) 109 Retail Floorspace Commitments & Allocations 110 Milton Keynes Council Area: Capacity Forecasts 112 Convenience Goods Capacity 112 Comparison Goods Capacity 114 Summary 116 15 COMMERCIAL LEISURE NEEDS 117 Leisure Expenditure Growth 117 Cinema Need 119 Eating & Drinking Out 121 Health & Fitness Need 124 Bingo & Gambling Needs 127 Other Commercial Leisure Needs 128 Cultural Activities 129 Hotel Provision 131 Summary 131 16 RECOMMENDATIONS AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TOWN CENTRE STRATEGIES 133 Meeting the Identified Need – Comparison Floorspace 133 Meeting the Identified Need – Leisure 135 Hierarchy Recommendations 135 Recommendations on Frontages 136 Recommendations for the Key Centres 136 Local Impact Threshold: Recommendations 142 17 GLOSSARY 145 STUDY AREA 147 Health Check Summary CMK 148 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – KINGSTON 150 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – WESTCROFT 151 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – BLETCHLEY 152 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – WOLVERTON 153 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – NEWPORT PAGNELL 154 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – OLNEY 155 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – STONY STRATFORD 156 Milton Keynes Retail Capacity & Leisure Study - 2018 Page 5 of 167 HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY – WOBURN SANDS 157 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE (CONVENIENCE AND COMPARISON GOODS) 158 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE (COMPARISON AND COMPARISON GOODS) 160 CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARES 161 COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARES 162 FORECAST CONVENIENCE GOODS TURNOVER 163 FORECAST COMPARISON GOODS TURNOVER 164 CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 165 COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 166 NEMS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY RESULTS 167 Milton Keynes Retail Capacity & Leisure Study - 2018 Page 6 of 167 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Carter Jonas (‘CJ’) has been instructed by Milton Keynes Council (the ‘Council’) to prepare the Retail Capacity and Leisure Study (the ‘Study’) that will be used as evidence to inform the preparation of the new Local Plan (Plan: MK) and other relevant supplementary planning documents. 1.2 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012. Where relevant the study also draws on advice set out in the National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG), published in March 2014, which places significant weight on the development of positive plan-led visions and strategies to help ensure the vitality of town centres. The sequential and impact ‘tests’ are also key to both plan-making and decision-taking at the local level. 1.3 The assessment of the need (or ‘capacity’) for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace has been carried out at the strategic (local authority) level to help inform the likely scale, type, location and phasing of new retail development over the short (0-5 years), medium (6-10 years) and long term (11-15 years). 1.4 The study/catchment area defined for the purpose of this study principally covers the Milton Keynes local authority area, but incorporates parts of neighbouring local planning authority areas ( Appendix 1). The Study Area has been divided into 14 zones that broadly reflect the population distribution and local catchments of the main study centres. For analysis purposes Zones 1-7, 9 and 10 represent the local authority area. 1.5 The defined Study Area and zones provide the framework for the new telephone interview survey of some 1,400 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (NEMS). The full (weighted) survey results are set out in Appendix 19. The survey provides the most up-to-date and robust evidence on shopping patterns, leisure preferences and expenditure flows within the Study Area. The survey findings have also informed the health check assessments for the main study centres, as well as the quantitative (‘capacity’) and qualitative need assessments for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace and leisure uses. 1.6 For ease of reference this report is structured as follows: ° Section 2 reviews the national and local planning policy context material to retail planning and town centres. ° Section 3 highlights some of the key trends that are driving the dynamic changes in the retail sector at the national and local level, and how this has shaped (and is likely to shape) the UK’s urban and retail landscape. ° Section 4 sets