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The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges

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The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS ESCOLA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS DE SÃO PAULO GERRIT SIMON RUDOLF HELD The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges SÃO PAULO 2017 GERRIT SIMON RUDOLF HELD The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges Thesis presented to Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo of Fundação Getúlio Vargas, as a requirement to obtain the title of Master in International Management(MPGI) Field of Knowledge: Economia e Finanças Internacionais Supervisor: Prof.Dr.Julia von Maltzan Pacheco SÃO PAULO 2017 Held, Gerrit Simon Rudolf. The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges / Gerrit Simon Rudolf Held. - 2017. 58 f. Orientador: Julia von Maltzan Pacheco Dissertação (MPGI) - Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo. 1. Recursos energéticos. 2. Energia – Fontes alternativas. 3. Energia solar - Brasil. 4. Energia - Indústria. I. Pacheco, Julia von Maltzan. II. Dissertação (MPGI) - Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo. III. Título. CDU 620.9(81) GERRIT SIMON RUDOLF HELD The Dawn of Solar Power in Brazil: Current State and Future Challenges Thesis presented to Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo of FundaçãoGetulio Vargas, as a requirement to obtain the title of Master in International Management (MPGI). Knowledge Field: Economia e Finanças Internacionais Approval Date 31/10/2017 Committee members: _______________________________ Prof.Dr.Julia von Maltzan Pacheco _______________________________ Prof. Dr. André Pereira de Carvalho _______________________________ Prof. Dr. Angelo Costa “Brazil competes with other opportunities, sun is not only in Brazil, it is everywhere. If we do not create a more competitive, more favourable environment, the resource finds profitability elsewhere and that’s all we do not want at the moment.” Fernando Coelho Filho, Minister of Mines and Energy in Brazil ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to thank Nova SBE and FGV-EAESP for giving me the opportunity to be part of the Double Degree Programme and to spend two incredibly enriching years in Portugal and Brazil. Special thanks go to my academic advisors, Prof.LuísBrites Pereira and Prof Julia von Maltzan Pacheco, for their guidance and valuable suggestions during the research orientation phase and for their support and patience in the finalization of this thesis writing process. My acknowledgments also go to my colleagues from the KfW IPEX - German Project and Export Finance representative office in São Paulo. It was a pleasure working with you! My deep gratitude goes tomy parents Annie and Eckhardfor their generosity, encouragement and continuous support throughout the course of my international study adventures. Thanks for alwaysstanding by my side! I would also like to thank my brothers Eike and Frederik for keeping me motivated throughout this work. Also, I would like to thank my aunt Uli for her financial support throughout my study. Finally, I am truly grateful to my girlfriend Anusha for supporting me in my choice of study and tolerating my occasional mood swings. Ma timilaimayagarchu! ABSTRACT As a sun-soaked South American giant with a population of more than 200 million, Brazil is considered to have some of the best conditions for solar power worldwide. Despite its tremendous potential, the countryhas so far been rather slow indeveloping the national solar power market.After a devastating energy crisis in its draught afflicted hydroelectric sector, the dawn of solar power seems on the horizon.With the goalof diversifying its energy mix, Brazil initiated the large-scale deployment of solar power in 2014. Three years after its commercial commencement,the solar energy drive is stalled and policy efforts seem trivial underdeteriorating political and economic conditions. As acomprehensive analysis of the industry’s state of affairsis currently insufficiently portrayed, this paper attempts to fill thisgap by discussing the latest solar market developments and outlining the progress and status of Brazil’s solar energy market objectives. While the findings prove a significantdiscrepancy betweenthe desired and achieved progress, this paper also finds that there is reason to be optimistic that the solar market growth will be unleashed in the future. As such, the analysis focuses on the critical state of the Brazilian solar market in 2017 and showcases the underlying challenges of transforming an energy sector during a recession. Keywords:Brazil, Solar Energy, Support policies. RESUMO Como um gigante sul-americano esbanjando sol e com uma população de mais de 200 milhões, o Brasil é considerado como tendo algumas das melhores condições para a energia solar em todo o mundo. Apesar do seu enorme potencial, o país tem sido até o momento lento no desenvolvimento do mercado nacional de energia solar. Após uma devastadora crise energética resultado da seca que atingiu as hidrelétricas, a esperança de energia solar parece distante. Com o objetivo de diversificar seu mix de energia, o Brasil iniciou a implantação em larga escala da energia solar em 2014. Porém, três anos após o início da comercialização, a energia solar está paralisada e esforços para regulamentação se revelam triviais neste contexto deteriorante do cenário político e econômico. Uma vez que análises apropriadas da situação desta indústria é insuficientemente retratada, este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir para a diminuição desta lacuna, discutindo os últimos avanços do mercado solar e destacando o progresso e status dos objetivos do mercado de energia solar no Brasil. Embora os resultados demonstrem uma discrepância significativa entre o progresso desejado e o progresso alcançado, este artigo também mostra que há espaço para estar otimista de que o mercado de energia se desenvolverá no futuro. Como tal, a análise deste artigo concentra-se no ponto crítico do mercado solar brasileiro em 2017 além de apresentar os desafios subjacentes da transformação do setor de energia durante uma recessão. Palavras-chave: Brasil, Energia Solar, Políticas de suporte TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ II List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... III List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. IV CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background and Motivation .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective and Methodology .......................................................................................... 3 1.3 Relevance .................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2 - SOLAR POWER MARKET IN BRAZIL .............................................. 6 2.1 Potential and Expansion plans ..................................................................................... 6 2.2 Governance and Stakeholders ................................................................................... 10 2.3 Support Policies & Instruments .................................................................................. 11 2.4 Financing ................................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Terms & structure ................................................................................................ 13 2.4.2 Local content rule ................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 3 - CURRENT STATE AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ..................... 18 3.1 Investments ............................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Private Sector ...................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Public sector ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2 Implementation .......................................................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Deployment of generation plants ......................................................................... 21 3.1.2 Establishment of a local supply chain .................................................................. 27 CHAPTER 4 - SUMMARY & CONLUSION ............................................................. 29 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 33 A. Figures ................................................................................................................... 33 B. Tables .................................................................................................................... 37 C. Photos .................................................................................................................... 41 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................... 42 I LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Energy Expansion plan according to the 2004 and 2014 published Targets ............................ 8 Table 2 Old methodology: local content requirements for
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